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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Precursors to Extreme Wintertime Cold in the Midwest United States

ABSTRACT Cold air outbreaks (CAOs) are extreme weather events that affect millions of people every winter, including those in the US Midwest. Per our criteria (a sufficiently cold event over a wide area and a long period), we identified 43 wintertime CAOs in the Midwest region using data from 1980 to 2021 (approximately one per year). These occurred in the Midwest during three of five North American weather regimes. Two regimes' CAOs are related to a weak stratospheric polar vortex, consistent with previous research on CAOs in the neighbouring Great Plains region. A different regime, characterised by anomalous ridging along the west coast of North America, is the most common for Midwest CAOs, unlike in regions further to the west. Unlike the other two regimes, these so‐called West Coast Ridge CAOs have no clear stratospheric connection. West Coast Ridge CAOs are instead linked to tropospheric processes on synoptic timescales, usually preceded by a weaker than average mid‐tropospheric height gradient in the western Pacific about 10 days prior to CAO onset. Our results demonstrate a particular challenge for predicting some extreme events in the Midwest, with important implications for early warning systems.

Ryan, James M. [Department of Earth and Atmospheri↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics Within Water‐Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models

Determining the age distribution of water exiting a catchment is important for understanding groundwater storage and mixing. New water-tagging capabilities within models track precipitation events as they move through simulated storages, yet forward modeling of individual events may not systematically capture the full transit time distribution (TTD). Here, we present a “sequential precipitation input tagging” (SPIT) framework to tag all input precipitation at regular intervals during extended model simulations. Monthly tags over 7 years were applied at six National Ecological Observatory Network sites to calculate TTDs and derive mean virtual tracer age, $\overline{T_{V}}$, fractions of young water, F yw , and hydrologic tracer concentrations (water isotopes δ 18 O and δ 2 H) within a tagging enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecast hydrologic model (WRF-Hydro). Throughout seven simulation years, the fraction of simulated discharge derived from tagged events, F tag , increased each year, with the final year's F tag ranging from 66% to 100% and highlights the need to apply SPIT over many years to understand TTDs. When the F tag was >75%, simulated $\overline{T_{V}}$ ranged 179–923 days and F yw 0.6%–23.9%, with daily values exhibiting a power-law relationship with precipitation, discharge, and groundwater. Through implementation of SPIT, we find this hydrologic model configuration performs poorly in estimation of $\overline{T_{V}}$ and F yw (root mean squared error of 469 days and 14.4% respectively), suggesting it misrepresents subsurface mixing. Thus, the SPIT framework provides a reproducible approach to calculate watershed transit times within tagging enabled models and thereby assess and improve representation of hydrologic processes.

fraction of young water↗
DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting Dynamic Line Rating with Spatial Variation Considerations

Dynamic line rating (DLR) is a technology that allows the ampacity of an electrical conductor to be calculated using real-time or forecasted weather conditions. Historically, the ampacity of a conductor has been determined using a static line rating method which assumes conservative weather assumptions. Therefore, not only can DLR give a more accurate measurement of the true ampacity of a conductor, but it can also increase its ampacity during weather conditions with greater thermal mitigations. The two primary cooling factors in the ampacity calculations are wind speed and direction. In complex terrain, wind speed and direction can have large variations over short distances. Therefore, accurately identifying the limiting span of a transmission line requires high spatial resolution of the wind along its path. One solution is to install dense weather stations along their path, though this can become costly over long distances. Therefore, researchers have investigated the use of Computation Fluid Dynamic (CFD) simulations to accurately compute the wind field along the path of a transmission line and use these results to identify the limiting section of the conductor. This work presents a case study that evaluates the coupling of CFD simulations and forecasted weather simulations using the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model points over a 2-year span within a region in south eastern Idaho. The primary goal of the work is the evaluation of the number of HRRR model points used, i.e., weather stations, along the path of the line and the accuracy of the resulting DLR ampacity. This was done using 4, 10, 17, 26, and 35 HRRR model points along two transmission line paths. The results indicate that as the number of model points are increased, the DLR ampacity of the lines decrease, yet converge as more points are added and demonstrate little change with additional HRRR points. It is expected that these results can help transmission line operators identify the number of weather stations that must be installed when coupled with CFD simulations and DLR ampacity to ensure accurate ratings and safe operations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting Dynamic Line Rating with Spatial Variation Considerations

Dynamic line rating (DLR) is a technology that allows the ampacity of an electrical conductor to be calculated using real-time or forecasted weather conditions. Historically, the ampacity of a conductor has been determined using a static line rating method which assumes conservative weather assumptions. Therefore, not only can DLR give a more accurate measurement of the true ampacity of a conductor, but it can also increase its ampacity during weather conditions with greater thermal mitigations. The two primary cooling factors in the ampacity calculations are wind speed and direction. In complex terrain, wind speed and direction can have large variations over short distances. Therefore, accurately identifying the limiting span of a transmission line requires high spatial resolution of the wind along its path. One solution is to install dense weather stations along their path, though this can become costly over long distances. Therefore, researchers have investigated the use of Computation Fluid Dynamic (CFD) simulations to accurately compute the wind field along the path of a transmission line and use these results to identify the limiting section of the conductor. This work presents a case study that evaluates the coupling of CFD simulations and forecasted weather simulations using the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model points over a 2-year span within a region in south eastern Idaho. The primary goal of the work is the evaluation of the number of HRRR model points used, i.e., weather stations, along the path of the line and the accuracy of the resulting ampacity. This was done using 4, 10, 17, 26, and 35 HRRR model points along two transmission line paths. The results indicate that as the number of model points are increased, the DLR ampacity of the lines decrease, yet converge as more points are added and demonstrate little change with additional HRRR points. It is expected that these results can help transmission line operators identify the number of weather stations that must be installed when coupled with CFD simulations and DLR ampacity to ensure accurate ratings and safe operations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contrast and Predictability of Island‐Scale El Niño Influences on Hawaii Wave Climate

Abstract The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences ocean wave activity across the Pacific, but its effects on island shores are modulated by local weather and selective sheltering of multi‐modal seas. Utilizing 41 years of high‐resolution wave hindcasts, we decipher the season‐ and locality‐dependent connections between ENSO and wave patterns around the Hawaiian Islands. The north and west‐facing shores, exposed to energetic northwest swells during boreal winters, experience the most pronounced ENSO‐related variability, with increased high‐surf activity during El Niño years. While the year‐round trade wind waves exhibit moderate correlation with ENSO, the basin‐wide climate influence is masked by locally accelerated trade winds in channels and around large headlands. The remarkable global‐to‐local pathway through the high‐resolution hindcast enables development of an ENSO‐based semi‐empirical wave model to statistically describe and predict severe wave conditions on vulnerable shores with potential application in coastal risk management and hazard mitigation for Pacific Islands and beyond.

Zhao, Sen [Department of Atmospheric Sciences Scho↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hydrologic Model Files (PRMS) for Historical Conditions in the East River Watershed, Colorado between 1987-2019

The data package contains model input and output file for the East River watershed (85 km2) located in the headwaters of the Colorado River. The model is the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Precipitation-Modeling Runoff System (PRMS) for the historical, or baseline, condition (1987-2019) to assess the efficiency of summer monsoon rains to generate streamflow. The finite difference grid resolution is 100 m with elevations resampled from the USGS National Elevation Dataset. LANDFIRE raster data is used to derive parameters of dominant cover type, summer and winter cover density, canopy interception characteristics for snow and rain and transmission coefficient for shortwave radiation. Climate forcing uses minimum and maximum daily temperature lapse rates defined by the two Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations located in the vicinity of the East River adjusted for aspect. Schofield SNOTEL snowfall is spatially distributed using LiDAR derived snow depth observations from the Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) flown 4 April 2016. Snow depths are converted to snow water equivalent based on ground surveys and density modeling. Rainfall is spatially distributed using the monthly Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model 30-year monthly averages. Simulated solar radiation is calibrated to match weather station observations. Model verification of snow water equivalent (SWE) accumulation and ablation relies on the 2018 and 2019 ASO maps and weather station snow depth. The data package contains model input files in text format, model documentation in pfd and a readme.txt file to help users understand the file structure to run the program.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Multi-scenario Extreme Weather Simulator: Energy Resilience for Mission Assurance

The Multi-scenario extreme weather simulator (MEWS) is a stochastic weather generation tool. The MEWS algorithm uses 50 or more years of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) daily summaries [1] for maximum and minimum temperature and NOAA climate norms [2] to calculate historical heat wave and cold snap statistics. The algorithm takes these statistics and shifts them according to multiplication factors provided in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical basis technical summary [3] for heat waves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring the Potential of Factory Installed Solar + Storage for Homebuilding

In recent years, an increasing number of grid disruptions due to intense weather events, natural disasters, and high peak loads resulted in increased interest in energy-resilient homes. Solar + storage (S+S) as an energy resiliency solution can provide continuity, onsite generation, and backup power during critical events. This project explored factory-installed solar plus storage (FISS) to overcome first cost and installation barriers and bring this resiliency solution to scale for single-family affordable and market-rate homebuyers. Guided by the principles of Lean manufacturing, the team explored how factories building high-performance zero energy modular homes can incorporate S+S into their existing construction system while improving quality and productivity and reducing the costs of the resilient energy system.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION,↗
DOE OSTI2022

Key environmental and production factors for understanding variation in switchgrass chemical attributes

Abstract Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) is a promising feedstock for bioenergy and bioproducts; however, its inherent variability in chemical attributes creates challenges for uniform conversion efficiencies and product quality. It is necessary to understand the range of variation and factors (i.e., field management, environmental) influencing chemical attributes for process improvement and risk assessment. The objectives of this study were to (1) examine the impact of nitrogen fertilizer application rate, year, and location on switchgrass chemical attributes, (2) examine the relationships among chemical attributes, weather and soil data, and (3) develop models to predict chemical attributes using environmental factors. Switchgrass samples from a field study spanning four locations including upland cultivars, one location including a lowland cultivar, and between three and six harvest years were assessed for glucan, xylan, lignin, volatiles, carbon, nitrogen, and ash concentrations. Using variance estimation, location/cultivar, nitrogen application rate, and year explained 65%–96% of the variation for switchgrass chemical attributes. Location/cultivar × year interaction was a significant factor for all chemical attributes indicating environmental‐based influences. Nitrogen rate was less influential. Production variables and environmental conditions occurring during the switchgrass field trials were used to successfully predict chemical attributes using linear regression models. Upland switchgrass results highlight the complexity in plant responses to growing conditions because all production and environmental variables had strong relationships with one or more chemical attributes. Lowland switchgrass was limited to observations of year‐to‐year environmental variability and nitrogen application rate. All explanatory variable categories were important for lowland switchgrass models but stand age and precipitation relationships were particularly strong. The relationships found in this study can be used to understand spatial and temporal variation in switchgrass chemical attributes. The ability to predict chemical attributes critical for conversion processes in a geospatial/temporal manner would provide state‐of‐the‐art knowledge for risk assessment in the bioenergy and bioproducts industry.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Synoptic Weather Regime Classifications for June, July, August, and September, 2022

The synoptic weather regime classification has become a highly demanded product for the ARM site in recent years. This type of regime classification has shown applications in various studies and topics, including aerosol-cloud interactions, land-atmosphere interactions, and cloud radiative effects. The VAP employs an unsupervised machine learning method, Self-organizing map (SOM), to classify weather regimes for each day of the AMF campaigns and fixed sites, using ERA5 data. This idea is mainly based on our published study for TRACER in Wang et al. (2022, JGR-A). This dataset includes the data in June, July, August, and September; the last year of the data is 2022.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lithium and Lithium Isotopes in Earth’s Surface Cycles

Lithium and its isotopes can provide information on continental silicate weathering, which is the primary natural drawdown process of atmospheric CO 2 and a major control on climate. Lithium isotopes themselves can aid our understanding of weathering, via globally important processes such as clay formation and cation retention. Both these processes occur as part of weathering in modern surface environments, such as rivers, soil pore waters, and groundwaters, but Li isotopes can also be used to track weathering changes across major climate-change events. Lithium isotope evidence from several past climatic warming and cooling episodes shows that weathering processes respond rapidly to changes in temperature, meaning that weathering is capable of bringing climate back under control within a few tens of thousands of years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Design and performance assessment of a dual-mode latent thermal storage integrated heat pump across multiple climate zones

The electrification of space cooling and heating systems risks overloading the existing electrical grid during peak hours. Heat pumps integrated with thermal energy storage (HP-TES) offer a promising solution by shifting peak loads to off-peak hours, reducing grid strains. This work presents the design and assessment of a dual-mode HP-TES that uses a single 22°C phase-change material (PCM) as a heat source or sink in heating and cooling modes, respectively. Performance assessment was conducted using Modelica-based transient models, and full-year simulations were conducted across eight US climate zones using typical weather data. Two HP-TES performance metrics: peak energy reduction and recharge energy increases, were defined by comparing HP-TES energy consumption with base HP peak consumptions. Annual heating demand reductions (40–65%) exceeded cooling demand reductions (15–20%) due to the elimination of peak-hour backup heating. Cooling mode recharge energy requirements (0–10%) were reduced in locations with lower summer nighttime temperatures, while heating recharge requirements were lower than the high base-peak energy demand from backup heating. Simplified rapid methods that were 10 7 times faster than annual simulations were developed to predict seasonal cooling and heating energy reductions, and recharge energy requirements, with maximum deviations of ±2.5% and ±3.5% points. These methods enabled rapid parametric studies that identified optimal location-specific PCM temperatures between 22°C and 27°C, highlighting the need to consider both discharge and recharge energy requirements to achieve sustainable, energy-efficient peak load shifting across various climate zones.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic cyclones have become more intense and longer-lived over the past seven decades

Intense cyclones driving extreme Arctic weather and climate events have been more frequently observed during recent years, causing dramatic environmental and socioeconomic impacts. However, inconsistencies have emerged about long-term changes in Arctic cyclone activity. Here we analyze multiple reanalysis datasets covering a multidecadal period with improvements to the cyclone tracking algorithm and the integrated cyclone activity metric. The results indicate an intensification of Arctic cyclone activity over the last seven decades. There has been a long-term shift of the maximum cyclone counts from weaker to stronger cyclones and a pronounced lengthening of the duration of strong cyclones. Spatial analysis shows increased strong cyclone frequency over the Arctic, driven by enhanced lower troposphere baroclinicity, amplified winter jet stream waves over the subpolar North Atlantic, and a strengthened summer tropospheric vortex over the central Arctic. The stratospheric vortex has also intensified the tropospheric waves and vortex with distinct dynamics between winter and summer. Recently enhanced baroclinicity over large areas of the Arctic and midlatitudes suggests more complicated atmospheric dynamics than what is hypothesized with Arctic-amplification-induced decrease in meridional temperature gradients.

Atmospheric dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wildfire and power grid nexus in a changing climate

Global wildfire events have had increasingly severe impacts in recent years, particularly in the western USA, driven by extreme fire-weather conditions, fuel accumulation and multiple ignition sources. Wildfires sparked by power lines tend to be larger and more destructive, as they often occur during high winds, which accelerate the spread of fires. Moreover, efforts to contain wildfires frequently result in power outages, causing considerable economic disruption. Here, in this Review, we examine wildfire risks related to power-line-induced ignitions, infrastructure damage, climate-induced environmental impacts, grid operational risks, real-time grid management risks, vegetation management risks, and financial and funding risks in the context of a changing climate and their interdependence with power grid infrastructures. We then explore the resilience of power grids under wildfire threats, looking at risk analysis, prediction and mitigation strategies. The Review also shares practical insights and experiences in the USA to inform researchers, policymakers and industry professionals.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Canopy cover and microtopography control precipitation-enhanced thaw of ecosystem-protected permafrost

Abstract Northern high-latitudes are projected to get warmer and wetter, which will affect rates of permafrost thaw and mechanisms by which thaw occurs. To better understand the impact of rain, as well as other factors such as snow depth, canopy cover, and microtopography, we instrumented a degrading permafrost plateau in south-central Alaska with high-resolution soil temperature sensors. The site contains ecosystem-protected permafrost, which persists in unfavorable climates due to favorable ecologic conditions. Our study (2020–2022) captured three of the snowiest years and three of the four wettest years since the site was first studied in 2015. Average thaw rates along an across-site transect increased nine-fold from 6 ± 5 cm yr −1 (2015–2020) to 56 ± 12 cm yr −1 (2020–2022). This thaw was not uniform. Hummock locations, residing on topographic high points with relatively dense canopy, experienced only 8 ± 9 cm yr −1 of thaw, on average. Hollows, topographic low points with low canopy cover, and transition locations, which had canopy cover and elevation between hummocks and hollows, thawed 44 ± 6 cm yr −1 and 39 ± 13 cm yr −1 , respectively. Mechanisms of thaw differed between these locations. Hollows had high warm-season soil moisture, which increased thermal conductivity, and deep cold-season snow coverage, which insulated soil. Transition locations thawed primarily due to thermal energy transported through subsurface taliks during individual rain events. Most increases in depth to permafrost occurred below the ∼45 cm thickness seasonally frozen layer, and therefore, expanded existing site taliks. Results highlight the importance of canopy cover and microtopography in controlling soil thermal inputs, the ability of subsurface runoff from individual rain events to trigger warming and thaw, and the acceleration of thaw caused by consecutive wet and snowy years. As northern high-latitudes become warmer and wetter, and weather events become more extreme, the importance of these controls on soil warming and thaw is likely to increase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Frequency Nadir Constrained Unit Commitment for High Renewable Penetration Island Power Systems

The process of energy decarbonization in island power systems is accelerated due to the swift integration of inverter-based renewable energy resources (IBRs). The unique features of such systems, including rapid frequency changes resulting from potential generation outages or imbalances due to the unpredictability of renewable power, pose a significant challenge in maintaining the frequency nadir without external support. This paper presents a unit commitment (UC) model with data-driven frequency nadir constraints, including either frequency nadir or minimum inertia requirements, helping to limit frequency deviations after significant generator outages. The constraints are formulated using a linear regression model that takes advantage of real-world, year-long generation scheduling and dynamic simulation data. The efficacy of the proposed UC model is verified through a year-long simulation in an actual island power system using historical weather data. The alternative minimum inertia constraint, derived from actual system operation assumptions, is also evaluated. Findings demonstrate that the proposed frequency nadir constraint notably improves the system's frequency nadir under high photovoltaic (PV) penetration levels, albeit with a slight increase in generation costs, when compared to the alternative minimum inertia constraint.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Frequency-Nadir-Constrained Unit Commitment for Low-Inertia, High-IBR Island Power Systems [Slides]

The process of energy decarbonization in island power systems is accelerated due to the swift integration of inverter-based renewable energy resources (IBRs). The unique features of such systems, including rapid frequency changes resulting from potential generation outages or imbalances due to the unpredictability of renewable power, pose a significant challenge in maintaining the frequency nadir without external support. This paper presents a unit commitment (UC) model with data-driven frequency nadir constraints, including either frequency nadir or minimum inertia requirements, helping to limit frequency deviations after significant generator outages. The constraints are formulated using a linear regression model that takes advantage of real-world, year-long generation scheduling and dynamic simulation data. The efficacy of the proposed UC model is verified through a year-long simulation in an actual island power system using historical weather data. The alternative minimum inertia constraint, derived from actual system operation assumptions, is also evaluated. Findings demonstrate that the proposed frequency nadir constraint notably improves the system's frequency nadir under high photovoltaic (PV) penetration levels, albeit with a slight increase in generation costs, when compared to the alternative minimum inertia constraint.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗