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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2021

Winter precipitation changes in California under global warming: Contributions of CO2, uniform SST warming, and SST change patterns

Climate models project a wetting winter over California, distinct from the drying in all other Mediterranean climate regions under warming. Dynamic effect via an eastward extension of the westerly jet stream over the North Pacific is the root cause for the wetting California. Utilizing four sets of prescribed-SST (sea surface temperature) simulations, the relative effects of direct CO2 radiative forcing, uniform SST warming, and SST change pattern are investigated. The wetting winter is dominated by uniform SST warming mainly through its effect on the jet extension. As a fundamental response to the enhanced upper-tropospheric warming in the tropics, the jet extension in coupled simulations is well reproduced under uniform SST warming and robust among models. An El Niño-like SST warming pattern has a secondary contribution to the jet extension via atmospheric teleconnection, but with large inter-model spread. Relative to the SST forcing, the direct CO2 radiative effect is negligible.

Dong, Lu↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dairy Methane Emissions in California's San Joaquin Valley Inferred With Ground‐Based Remote Sensing Observations in the Summer and Winter

Abstract The dairy industry in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) is one of California’s largest methane (CH 4 ) sources. Reducing dairy emissions is a priority for the state’s climate change plans. Observations of current dairy CH 4 emissions are key to monitoring actions taken toward this goal. To help support this, we present new ground‐based measurements of atmospheric column‐averaged CH 4 mixing ratio (XCH 4 ) gradients across a group of 600 dairies in the central SJV using EM27/SUN solar spectrometers. We used measurements from the 2019 summer and 2020 winter seasons for a top‐down emission inversion based on the WRF‐STILT model. Our top‐down estimates of the region’s dairy emissions range from 90% to 183% of the current CALGEM inventory’s emissions of 277 Gg/yr. In contrast to the strong temperature dependence found by earlier dairy CH 4 emission studies, we also find that our top‐down emissions during the winter measurement days are comparable to the summer measurement days, possibly due to seasonal changes in dairy management practices and meteorological conditions. Furthermore, we find significant interday variability in our measurements and find that our emission estimates overlap with earlier top‐down studies and bottom‐up inventories in this region. Our study demonstrates how analysis of ground‐based remotely sensed CH 4 gradient observations can help improve our understanding of CH 4 sources at scales relevant to mitigation policy. It also reflects the need for long‐term monitoring of CH 4 emissions in the region and at individual facilities to better understand their emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Arctic Ocean annual high in ${{\boldsymbol{p}}}_{{{\bf{CO}}}_{{\bf{2}}}}$ could shift from winter to summer

Long-term stress on marine organisms from ocean acidification will differ between seasons. As atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) increases, so do seasonal variations of ocean CO 2 partial pressure (p co 2 ), causing summer and winter long-term trends to diverge. Trends may be further influenced by an unexplored factor—changes in the seasonal timing of p co 2 . In Arctic Ocean surface waters, the observed timing is typified by a winter high and summer low because biological effects dominate thermal effects. Here we show that 27 Earth system models simulate similar timing under historical forcing but generally project that the summer low, relative to the annual mean, eventually becomes a high across much of the Arctic Ocean under mid-to-high-level CO 2 emissions scenarios. Often the greater increase in summer p co 2 , although gradual, abruptly inverses the chronological order of the annual high and low, a phenomenon not previously seen in climate-related variables. The main cause is the large summer sea surface warming from earlier retreat of seasonal sea ice. Warming and changes in other drivers enhance this century’s increase in extreme summer p co 2 by 29 ± 9 per cent compared with no change in driver seasonalities. Thus the timing change worsens summer ocean acidification, which in turn may lower the tolerance of endemic marine organisms to increasing summer temperatures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Natural gas shortages during the “coal-to-gas” transition in China have caused a large redistribution of air pollution in winter 2017

The Chinese “coal-to-gas” and “coal-to-electricity” strategies aim at reducing dispersed coal consumption and related air pollution by promoting the use of clean and low-carbon fuels in northern China. Here, we show that on top of meteorological influences, the effective emission mitigation measures achieved an average decrease of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations of ~14% in Beijing and surrounding areas (the “2+26” pilot cities) in winter 2017 compared to the same period of 2016, where the dispersed coal control measures contributed ~60% of the total PM 2.5 reductions. However, the localized air quality improvement was accompanied by a contemporaneous~15% upsurge of PM 2.5 concentrations over large areas in southern China. We find that the pollution transfer that resulted from a shift in emissions was of a high likelihood caused by a natural gas shortage in the south due to the coal-to-gas transition in the north. The overall shortage of natural gas greatly jeopardized the air quality benefits of the coal-to-gas strategy in winter 2017 and reflects structural challenges and potential threats in China’s clean-energy transition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events?

Abstract Pronounced changes in the Arctic environment add a new potential driver of anomalous weather patterns in midlatitudes that affect billions of people. Recent studies of these Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages, however, state inconsistent conclusions. A source of uncertainty arises from the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Thermodynamic forcing by a rapidly warming Arctic contributes to weather events through changing surface heat fluxes and large-scale temperature and pressure gradients. But internal shifts in atmospheric dynamics—the variability of the location, strength, and character of the jet stream, blocking, and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV)—obscure the direct causes and effects. It is important to understand these associated processes to differentiate Arctic-forced variability from natural variability. For example in early winter, reduced Barents/Kara Seas sea-ice coverage may reinforce existing atmospheric teleconnections between the North Atlantic/Arctic and central Asia, and affect downstream weather in East Asia. Reduced sea ice in the Chukchi Sea can amplify atmospheric ridging of high pressure near Alaska, influencing downstream weather across North America. In late winter southward displacement of the SPV, coupled to the troposphere, leads to weather extremes in Eurasia and North America. Combined tropical and sea ice conditions can modulate the variability of the SPV. Observational evidence for Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages continues to accumulate, along with understanding of connections with pre-existing climate states. Relative to natural atmospheric variability, sea-ice loss alone has played a secondary role in Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages; the full influence of Arctic amplification remains uncertain.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Near-Real-Time Model for Predicting Electricity Disruptions in Texas During Winter Storms

There has been an increase in extreme weather events, posing a threat to power grid systems, potentially influenced by factors such as population growth, changes in ecosystems, land cover, and land use in the service area, as well as the growth of certain vegetation types. This research seeks to develop a predictive model to mitigate potential damages caused by future winter storms. This research utilizes the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), incorporating the number of power outages experienced at the county level, geographic details, weather information, and lagged outage and lagged weather data. The developed models were broadly divided into two groups, with six models in each group - one group without optimization and another with optimization, totaling 12 trained models. For model optimization, Bayesian optimization was employed using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as the objective function. In results, when comparing Group 2 (the optimized group) with Group 1 (the non-optimized group), it was found that optimization did not always lead to a reduction in RMSE and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). However, in terms of Mean Directional Accuracy (MDA), while all results in Group 1 were below the baseline accuracy of 0.33, all results in Group 2 exceeded 0.33, with some cases showing an increase of more than three times the baseline. The results indicated that, in the optimized model group, Population and Pressure were the most influential factors when using current weather data and geographical information. When using lagged data, lagged recorded outages and lagged Pressure emerged as the most significant factors. Among the 12 developed models, the L-1-2-O model showed the lowest RMSE and MAE, as well as the highest accuracy, with values of 390.62 households and 168.13 households, respectively. To normalize the RMSE and MAE values, each metric was divided by the average number of households among the counties in Texas. For the L-1-2-O model, the scaled RMSE was 0.88% and the scaled MAE was 0.38%. In terms of MDA, which indicates the accuracy of the prediction direction, the L-1-O model achieved the highest score of 0.41. Although this study focused on Texas, which suffered the greatest impact from the winter storms in 2021, with additional validation, the methodology used in this research could be applied to other regions.

Lee, Jangjae [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Metatranscriptomic Sequencing of Winter and Spring Planktonic Communities from Lake Erie, a Laurentian Great Lake

Previous reports suggest planktonic and under-ice winter microbial communities in Lake Erie are dominated by diatoms. Here, we report the assembled metatranscriptomes of 79 Lake Erie surface water microbial communities spanning both the winter (28 samples) and spring (51 samples) months over spatial, temporal, and climatic gradients in 2019 through 2020.

Zepernick, Brittany N.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nonlinear Response of Atmospheric Blocking to Early Winter Barents–Kara Seas Warming: An Idealized Model Study

Wintertime Ural blocking (UB) has been shown to play an important role in cold extremes over Eurasia, and thus it is useful to investigate the impact of warming over the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) on the behavior of Ural blocking. In our study the response of UB to stepwise tropospheric warming over the BKS is examined using a dry dynamic core model. Nonlinear responses are found in the frequency and local persistence of UB. The frequency and local persistence of the UB increase with the strength of BKS warming in a less strong range and decrease with the further increase of BKS warming, which is linked to the UB propagation influenced by upstream background atmospheric circulation. For a weak BKS warming, the UB becomes more persistent due to its less westward movement associated with intensified upstream zonal wind and meridional potential vorticity gradient (PVy) in the North Atlantic mid-high latitudes, which corresponds to a negative height response over the North Atlantic high latitudes. When BKS warming is strong, a positive height response appears in the early winter stratosphere, and its subsequent downward propagation leads to a negative NAO response or increased Greenland blocking events, which reduces zonal wind and PVy in the high latitudes from North Atlantic to Europe, thus enhancing the westward propagation of UB and reducing its local persistence. The transition to the negative NAO phase and the retrogression of UB are not found when numerically suppressing the downward influence of weakened stratospheric polar vortex, suggesting a crucial role of the stratospheric pathway in nonlinear responses of UB to the early winter BKS warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Positive Low Cloud–Sea Surface Temperature Feedback in the East Asian Marginal Seas during El Niño Mature Winters and Their Following Spring

During the winter and subsequent spring of an El Niño year, the East Asian marginal sea (EAMS) exhibits positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and fewer low clouds, while the western North Pacific experiences negative SSTAs. In this study, we suggest that the positive SSTAs in EAMS are maintained by a positive low cloud–SST feedback. In neutral winters and springs, the EAMS is covered by low clouds, which have a cooling effect on surface temperatures. During an El Niño year, a western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone is established, and along its northwestern flank, there are favorable conditions for convergence of moisture and weaker surface latent heat flux over the EAMS. Once a positive SSTA has been established, a further reduction of turbulent mixing results in less low cloud and enhanced solar heating of the ocean mixed layer; this reinforces and maintains both the positive SSTA and the lack of low cloud via a positive feedback mechanism. Further, the concurrent increase of low cloud–SST feedback and anticyclone circulation strengths is evident in the coupled-model simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments, performed with the atmospheric components of Community Earth System Model (CESM2), reveal that a positive SSTA helps to maintain the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone. Four pacemaker-coupled experiments by CESM2, with sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific restored to the observational anomalies plus the model climatology and altered low cloud feedback over EAMS, suggest that the low cloud–SST feedback results in more than the maintenance of a positive SSTA over the EAMS: the positive feedback is also a previously overlooked mechanism for the maintenance of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Ice Water Content for Winter Storms from Millimeter-Wavelength Radar Measurements Using a Synthesis of Polarimetric and Dual-Frequency Radar Observations

The potential of millimeter-wavelength radar-based ice water content (IWC) estimation is demonstrated using a Ka-band Scanning Polarimetric Radar (KASPR) for the U.S. northeast coast winter storms. Two IWC relations for Ka-band polarimetric radar measurements are proposed: one that uses a combination of the radar reflectivity Z and the estimated total number concentration of snow particles N t and the other based on the joint use of Z, specific differential phase K DP , and the degree of riming f rim . A key element of the algorithms is to obtain the “Rayleigh-equivalent” value of Z measured at the Ka band, i.e., the corresponding Z at a longer radar wavelength for which Rayleigh scattering takes place. This is achieved via polarimetric retrieval of the mean volume diameter D m and incorporating the relationship between the dual-wavelength ratio DWR S/Ka and D m . Those techniques allow for retrievals from single millimeter-wavelength radar measurements and do not necessarily require the dual-wavelength ratio (DWR) measurements, if the DWR–D m relation and Rayleigh assumption for Ka-band K DP are valid. Comparison between the quasivertical profile product obtained from KASPR and the columnar vertical profile product generated from the nearby WSR-88D S-band radar measurements demonstrates that the DWR S/Ka can be estimated from the two close radars without the need for collocated radar beams and synchronized antenna scanning and can be used for determining the Rayleigh-equivalent value of Z. As a result, the performance of the suggested techniques is evaluated for seven winter storms using surface disdrometer and snow accumulation measurements.

Cloud retrieval↗
DOE OSTI2023

Diagnosing Near-Surface Model Errors with Candidate Physics Parameterization Schemes for the Multiphysics Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) Ensemble during Winter over the Northeastern United States and Southern Great Plains

Abstract During the winter of 2020/21 an ensemble of FV3-LAM forecasts was produced over the contiguous United States for the Winter Weather Experiment using five physics suites. These forecasts are evaluated with the goal of optimizing physics parameterizations within the future operational Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) in the Unified Forecast System (UFS) realm and for selecting suitable physics suites for a multiphysics RRFS ensemble. The five physics suites have different combinations of land surface models (LSMs), planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, and surface layer schemes, chosen from those used in current and possible future operational systems and likely to be supported in the operational UFS. Full-season evaluation reveals a persistent near-surface cold bias in the U.S. Northeast from one suite and a nighttime warm bias in the southern Great Plains in another suite, while other suites have smaller biases. A representative case is chosen to diagnose the cause for each of these biases using sensitivity simulations with different physics combinations or modified parameters and verified with additional mesonet observations. The cold bias in the Northeast is attributed to aspects of the Noah-MP LSM over snow cover, where Noah-MP simulates lower soil water content, and thus lower thermal conductivity than other LSMs, leading to less upward ground heat flux during nighttime and consequently lower surface temperature. The nighttime warm bias found in the southern Great Plains is attributed to overestimation of vertical mixing in the K -profile-based eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (K-EDMF) PBL scheme and insufficient land–atmospheric coupling from the GFS surface layer scheme over short vegetation. A few key parameters driving these systematic biases are identified.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Surface temperature comparison of the Arctic winter MOSAiC observations, ERA5 reanalysis, and MODIS satellite retrieval

Atmospheric model systems, such as those used for weather forecast and reanalysis production, often have significant and systematic errors in their representation of the Arctic surface energy budget and its components. The newly available observation data of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition (2019/2020) enable a range of model analyses and validation in order to advance our understanding of potential model deficiencies. In the present study, we analyze deficiencies in the surface radiative energy budget over Arctic sea ice in the ERA5 global atmospheric reanalysis by comparing against the winter MOSAiC campaign data, as well as, a pan-Arctic level-2 MODIS ice surface temperature remote sensing product. We find that ERA5 can simulate the timing of radiatively clear periods, though it is not able to distinguish the two observed radiative Arctic winter states, radiatively clear and opaquely cloudy, in the distribution of the net surface radiative budget. The ERA5 surface temperature over Arctic sea ice has a conditional error with a positive bias in radiatively clear conditions and a negative bias in opaquely cloudy conditions. The mean surface temperature error is 4°C for radiatively clear situations at MOSAiC and up to 15°C in some parts of the Arctic. The spatial variability of the surface temperature, given by 4 observation sites at MOSAiC, is not captured by ERA5 due to its spatial resolution but represented in the level-2 satellite product. The sensitivity analysis of possible error sources, using satellite products of snow depth and sea ice thickness, shows that the positive surface temperature errors during radiatively clear events are, to a large extent, caused by insufficient sea ice thickness and snow depth representation in the reanalysis system. A positive bias characterizes regions with ice thickness greater than 1.5 m, while the negative bias for thinner ice is partly compensated by the effect of snow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-Ca2 British Columbia - Clearcut Douglas-fir stand (harvested winter 1999/2000)

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-Ca2 British Columbia - Clearcut Douglas-fir stand (harvested winter 1999/2000). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-Ca2 British Columbia - Clearcut Douglas-fir stand (harvested winter 1999/2000) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Tower Type: 10" triangular tower; Latitude/Longitude 49.87048N -125.29087W (GPS survey, 2003. Coordinates updated/corrected May, 2006); Elevation approx. 180m; Mean Air Temp. (for the growing season) 8.3 C*; Mean Annual Precipitation 1461 mm *; Date Operations Began August 2000; Frequency of EC Measurements 7.7 Hz (2000 ­ 2001), 20 Hz (2002); Frequency of Other Met. Sensors 4 sec, year round; Soil Respiration Measurements Periodically during growing season using portable system in 2002; * 1998-2001 averages from the 1948 Douglas-fir stand meteorological tower

Black, T. Andrew↗
DOE OSTI2024

Winter Storm Elliott: Energy Emergency Alert Lessons Learned

Power blackouts in the United States in 2022 highlighted the need for better communication and planning among power grid stakeholders. This need was further demonstrated at a 2021 workshop held by the Grid Reliability Initiative Utilizing Data Standardization (GRIDS) Project. The GRIDS Project was established to understand and address the gaps in communication between the transmission and distribution operators. With the ongoing energy transition including electrification, distributed energy resource penetration, and so on, this project aims for improved energy emergency communications at the transmission-distribution interface. In 2022, Winter Storm Elliott affected 60% of the United States population (Weather Underground 2022), resulting in rolling blackouts in many areas of the eastern United States (Knoxville Utilities Board [KUB] 2023). Information presented here is based on the GRIDS workshop findings and subsequent research and interviews with stakeholders. After a brief summary of the effects of Winter Storm Elliott, this report covers the standard energy emergency communications processes currently in use, how the storm affected power management operations for the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and its local utility companies, and related experiences in other states. The report concludes with lessons learned and recommendations for improvements and a path forward.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Current Practices in Distribution Utility Resilience Planning for Hurricanes and Non-Winter Storms

This report is part of a series of hazard-focused case studies examining common practices in electric utility resilience planning. We use standard terminology defining resilience as the ability to anticipate, withstand, absorb, and recover from hazards that cause long duration outages. We distinguish between reliability and resilience using IEEE 1366-2022, which defines "major events" as "an event that exceeds reasonable design and/or operational limits of the electric power system." Resilience planning is focused on "major event days" and reliability planning is focused on non-major event days. Utility resilience plans are assessed according to common recommended resilience components that we have identified in existing resilience frameworks. The focus of this report is on hurricanes and severe storms in which the primary hazards are precipitation or high winds. We exclude winter storms with primary hazards of ice and extreme cold, as they are a unique set of hazards with different resilience considerations. Standalone reports focusing on wildfires and winter storms have been published in parallel with this report. This report can be used as a starting point for understanding potential investment prioritization processes and investment options. This report is intended to improve utility resilience planning by supporting constructive dialogue among utilities, regulators, and other stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

End-of-Winter Snow Depth, Temperature, Density and SWE Measurements at Teller Road Site, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2016-2018

Measurements of end-of-winter snow properties were collected at the NGEE Arctic Teller Road Site at mile marker 27 (TL_MM27) for three consecutive years - 2016, 2017, and 2018. This dataset contains one *.pdf user guide and four *.csv data files spatially distributed values of snow depth, snow water equivalent (SWE), temperature at the snow surface and at the bottom of the snowpack, and snow density as a function of depth from top of snowpack. Data was collected toward the end of the winter season, typically in late March or early April, when the snowpack would be near its maximum. In 2016, snow depth measurements were taken using either a thaw probe or avalanche probe. In 2017 and 2018 a Snow-Hydro MagnaProbe http://www.snowhydro.com/products/column2.html was used to improve collection efficiency and enhance spatial coverage. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

End-of-Winter Snow Depth, Temperature, Density and SWE Measurements at Kougarok Road Site, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2018

Measurements of snow properties were taken in 2018 at the NGEE Arctic Kougarok field site. This dataset contains spatially distributed values of snow depth, integrated snow pack density, snow water equivalent (SWE), temperature at the snow surface and at the bottom of the snow pack, and snow density as a function of depth from top of snow pack. Data was collected toward the end of the winter season, in late March, when snow pack would be near its maximum. Data was collected toward the end of the winter season, in late March, when snow pack would be near its maximum. A Snow-Hydro MagnaProbe (http://www.snowhydro.com/products/column2.html) was used for collection efficiency and enhanced spatial coverage. This package contains four *.csv data files and one *.pdf user guide file. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗