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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10

Atmospheric teleconnection associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability in summer: assessment of the CESM1 model

Observational analysis shows that the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is associated with climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere through a zonal atmospheric teleconnection extending from the North Atlantic Ocean and propagating eastward around the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we studied the fidelity of model simulations in reproducing the observed summer AMV and the associated impacts on the mid-latitude climate by analysing simulations using the National Centre for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model Version 1 (CESM1), including CESM1 North Atlantic idealized and pacemaker simulations, CESM1 large ensemble twentieth century uninitialized simulations and large ensemble initialized CESM1 decadal predictions. To further compare the fidelity of CESM1, we also analysed large ensemble simulations from three other models. Our results suggest that the uninitialized large ensemble simulations from all models can produce an AMV time evolution and its regional climate impacts similar to the observations to certain degree. By initializing the observed oceanic condition in decadal prediction simulations, the simulated AMV and its regional impacts are closer to the observed ones than those in uninitialized ensemble simulations. In addition, the pacemaker simulations that nudged the time-evolving observed North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies produce spatiotemporal characteristics of the AMV and AMV climate impacts closer to the observed ones than the uninitialized simulations. We conclude that although coupled models can produce AMV and its regional impacts similar to observed, proper initialization and bias correction of the sea surface temperature spatial and temporal structure can improve this capability.

Initialization↗

Towards understanding the robust strengthening of ENSO and more frequent extreme El Niño events in CMIP6 global warming simulations

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has profound impacts on weather patterns across the globe, yet there is no consensus on its response to global warming. Several modelling studies find a stronger ENSO in global warming scenarios, while other studies suggest ENSO weakening. Using a broad range of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and four types of warming experiments, here we show that the majority of the models predict a stronger ENSO by century-end in Shared Social Pathway (SSP) experiments, and in idealized 1pctCO 2 and abrupt 4xCO 2 experiments. Several models, however, do predict no change or ENSO weakening, especially in the idealized experiments. Critically, the strongest forcing (abrupt-4xCO 2 ) does not induce the strongest ENSO response, while differences between the models are much greater than those between warming scenarios. For the long-term response (over 1000 years) the models disagree even on the sign of change. Furthermore, changes in ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability are only modestly correlated with the tropical Pacific mean state change. The highest correlation for ENSO SST amplitude is found with the mean zonal SST gradient in the SSP5-8.5 experiment (R = –0.58). In contrast, changes in ENSO rainfall variability correlate well with changes in the mean state, as well as with changes in ENSO SST variability. When evaluating the Bjerknes Stability Index for a subset of models, we find that it is not a reliable predictor of ENSO strengthening, as this index tends to predict greater stability with warming. We argue that the enhanced ENSO stability is offset by increases in atmospheric noise or/and potential nonlinear effects. However, a robust inter-model mechanism that can explain a stronger ENSO simulated with global warming is still lacking. Therefore, caution should be exercised when considering ENSO changes based on a single model or warming scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiscale Effects Masked the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Electricity Demand in the United States

Shelter-in-place orders and business closures related to COVID-19 changed the hourly profile of electricity demand and created an unprecedented source of uncertainty for the grid. The potential for continued shifts in electricity profiles has implications for electricity sector investment and operating decisions that maintain reserve margins and provide grid reliability. This study reveals that understanding this uncertainty requires an understanding of the underlying drivers at the customer-class scale. This paper utilizes three datasets to compare the impacts of COVID-19 on electricity consumption across a range of spatiotemporal and customer scales. At the utility/customer-class scale, COVID-19-induced shutdowns in the spring of 2020 shifted weekday residential load profiles to resemble weekend profiles from previous years. Total commercial loads declined, but the commercial diurnal load profile was unchanged. With only total loads available at the balancing authority scale, the apparent impact of COVID-19 was smaller during the summer due in part to phased re-opening and spatial variability in re-opening, but there were still clear variations once total loads were broken down zonally. Monthly data at the state scale showed an increase in state-level residential electricity sales, a decrease in commercial sales, and a small net decrease in total sales in most states from April-August 2020. Analyses that focus on total load or a single scale may miss important changes that become apparent when the load is broken down regionally or by customer class.

COVID-19, electricity demand, multiscale, Commonwe↗

A method for assessing economic, environmental, and reliability tradeoffs of interregional transmission connecting ERCOT (the Texas grid) to the eastern and western grids

Reliable development of the power grid is an evolving concern for humanity due to extreme weather that frequently threatens power sector infrastructure. The state of Texas is a uniquely structured testbed for grid planners to study when looking for solutions to development, innovation, and overcoming such challenges. Because of its size and islanded structure, Texas is small enough to model, but big enough to matter. Texas is a global leader in energy production, energy consumption, and maintains an unusually diverse fuel mix. In addition, the state has experienced winter freezes, heat waves, wind storms, droughts and floods that have threatened power sector infrastructure or caused recent blackouts and calls for demand side conservation. One of the most devastating of these events was the North American winter storm, dubbed “Winter Storm Uri” by the Weather Channel, that froze the region in February 2021 and led to an extended power outage event that put the majority of Texan residents in darkness for days. While preparing to avoid such outage events in the future, various tools have been proposed to improve grid reliability, including energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. An additional option would be to develop interregional transmission that connects the Texas grid to other national grids. To assess the merits of this idea, we developed a novel, universally-applicable and internationally-relevant framework to study how the Texas grid would evolve alongside access to various interregional ties. This method allows us to stress the synthetic grid structure and analyze how it would respond to the shock of a simulated winter storm event. Our method leverages open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX to synthesize unique zonal grid data, construct a consolidated network of model regions, and simulate different developmental pathways of capacity expansion and operational dispatch. We demonstrate our method with an analysis connecting the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the grid that serves most of Texas, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), the grid that serves the western half of the contiguous U.S., and the Eastern Interconnect, the grid that serves the eastern half of the contiguous U.S. Our results indicate that the cost-optimal capacity of interregional transmission connecting the ERCOT grid to other grids lies between 9–13 GW assuming baseline conditions. Building this amount of connecting capacity in one or multiple directions lowers the costs and emissions of development and operation by up to $16 billion and 257 million metric tonnes (MMT) respectively. Additionally, our results show that the interregional connections between ERCOT and other national grids reduce the amount of total load shed required through mild winter storm events. However, our results also show that there is a threshold of very extreme winter storm conditions, spanning multiple service areas, above which the connections exacerbate resource adequacy problems. Therefore, the results indicate that the connections need to be carefully planned alongside the rest of the grid infrastructure to avoid over-reliance on specific resources or technology options.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Quantitative evaluations of subtropical westerly jet simulations over East Asia based on multiple CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs

As a salient feature of the Asian monsoon system, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) exerts significant impacts on weather and climate changes in China and even throughout East Asia. In this paper, we applied a new self-adaptive algorithm to detect the EASWJ, identify its boundaries, and then represent its characteristics by defining three indices: the intensity index, meridional displacement index, and width index. Compared to the reanalysis data, we carried out a comprehensive, objective, and quantitative EASWJ evaluation using historical experiments from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The results show that the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of both CMIP5 and CMIP6 can simulate the characteristics of winter EASWJ well. While for the other three seasons, the MME of both phase models underestimate the 200-hPa zonal wind (U200) strength in the jet coverage area and overestimate the U200 outside the jet area, such simulation results weaken the meridional shear of the wind field. The EASWJ simulations from the CMIP5 GCMs had no consistent intensity or location characteristic tendencies, and most CMIP5 GCMs tended to simulate relatively wide-coverage jets. In contrast, most CMIP6 GCMs are inclined to simulate significantly weaker, wider, and more-northward jets. Compared to the predecessors in CMIP5, about half of CMIP6 GCMs significantly minimized the jet intensity bias, but remarkable errors were still observed in their jet location and coverage representations. Furthermore, the comparative analysis performed by classifying models based on their evaluated simulation results suggested that the simulated performance of the meridional temperature gradient was important for capturing the EASWJ characteristics. Further in-depth study of the causes of model differences is warranted to improve simulation results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Energy efficiency and thermal resilience analysis for row houses using representative building energy models

Row houses, a prevalent medium-density urban archetype, were popularized during industrial era to accommodate the working class in the U.S. cities. Today, many of these structures are deteriorating, exacerbating the energy cost for residents with limited economic resources. Moreover, many households that lack Air Conditioning (AC) are vulnerable to extreme summer heat, an issue expected to worsen in the future. Energy-efficient retrofits can help mitigate these challenges. However, current literature provides limited insight into how existing building energy codes impact the energy efficiency and thermal resilience of row houses in current and future weather scenarios. This study provides a detailed method to address this gap by employing calibrated representative energy models of row houses as a baseline, and evaluating the annual energy savings and summertime thermal safety improvements from code compliant retrofits under current and future typical weather conditions. Using Baltimore City as a case study, results show that under current weather, retrofitting row houses yields significant energy savings along with notable thermal resilience improvements. The end unit row house realizes higher energy savings, whereas the interior unit experiences greater thermal resilience improvement after retrofitting. In future, retrofitted row houses can still save energy, but residents will face numerous hours of fatal indoor temperatures without AC in summer. Additionally, findings reveal stark zone-wise variations in thermal safety, and elevated humidity risks in certain zones post-retrofit, emphasizing the need for zonal retrofit strategies and better natural ventilation strategies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impact of downhole pressure and fluid-access on the effectiveness of wellbore cement expansion additives

Autogenous shrinkage of wellbore cement widely impairs zonal isolation. MgO-based cement expansion additives (CEAs) can mitigate this shrinkage, or even impart net expansion, by creating porosity through displacive crystal growth-processes. However, both MgO hydration and autogenous shrinkage behaviour depend strongly on stress state. Evaluation of CEA performance in wellbore cements therefore requires testing under elevated pressures representative for subsurface environments. We report experiments addressing the chemical and bulk volume changes that occur in cement hydrating at 10 MPa confining pressure and 90 °C. Volumetric response was investigated as function of MgO concentration, external water supply, and pore pressure decrease through water consumption during reaction. Results show the bulk expansion achieved using MgO-based CEAs diminishes markedly with increasing effective confining pressure or, equivalently, upon restricting fluid supply. This reduced expansion-potential under pressure has profound implications for slurry design, notably regarding CEA-concentrations required to counteract micro-annulus formation while maintaining low cement permeability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Record-breaking 2020 summer marine heatwaves in the western North Pacific

Record-breaking marine heatwaves (MHWs) occurred in the western North Pacific during the summer of 2020. These unprecedented MHWs were consistent with favorable large-scale conditions that are linked to an anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), resulting mainly from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the tropical oceans. In addition, a moderate La Niña-like pattern was also conducive to transporting warm seawater to the western North Pacific. Mixed-layer heat budgets suggest that surface heat flux contributed to the SST anomaly in the western subtropical Pacific. In contrast, oceanic heat advection dominanted in the South China Sea and the western equatorial Pacific. Numerical model experiments indicated that the tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies were responsible for the enhanced WNPSH. The increased zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific also played an important role. Inter-ocean interactions can modulate climate variability through ocean-atmospheric coupling and deserve more attention when predicting MHWs within the context of global warming. Additionally, it is critical to consider MHWs as a powerful tool in detecting acute, intense thermal stress events in the coral bleaching pre-warning system.

Coral bleaching↗

A zone-level occupancy counting system for commercial office spaces using low-resolution time-of-flight sensors

Understanding the locations of occupants in a commercial built environment is critical for realizing energy savings by delivering lighting, heating, and cooling only where it is needed. In this paper, we present an indoor occupancy counting system using a sparse array of inexpensive, low-resolution, and privacy-preserving time-of-flight sensors. We develop and validate an algorithm for zonal occupancy counting that can deal with multiple people walking underneath the sensors in arbitrary directions, and evaluate the system both in realistic simulations of office spaces and in a real-world installation. Finally, we found that our system has an error rate of around 0.4%, resulting in highly accurate person localization and zone counting using only a few sensors per space.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Smarter building start – A distributed solution

A significant focus of research and new technologies for reducing energy use in buildings is on operating the systems more efficiently during the times when the systems are active. However, there is a large potential for energy savings in determining the periods when the systems should or should not be active. This scheduling aspect of operation is often overlooked even though relatively simple solutions can unlock substantial energy savings. In this paper we describe a smart building start (SBS) algorithm that considers multiple zones in a building to determine individual schedules for room controllers as well as the central systems based on solving a simple optimization problem. Application of the SBS algorithm to multiple interconnected systems enables a staggered start-up that minimizes peak loads and also ensures comfort is within a target range with minimal system run time. The SBS algorithm extends the capability of traditional optimal start and is designed to be simple to deploy and robust. Simulation results as well as results from tests in a real building with a VAV system are presented. The presented algorithm is applicable to any type of building with a zonal or multi-zone HVAC system. To function, it needs to be able to change setpoints in rooms and monitor room temperatures, as well as, if desired, turn the central system on or off.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Comparative analysis of thermal management systems in electric vehicles at extreme weather conditions: Case study on Nissan Leaf 2019 Plus, Chevrolet Bolt 2020 and Tesla Model 3 2020

With the surge in electric vehicle (EV) adoption and the need for extended driving ranges, optimizing energy efficiency, particularly through thermal management, is critical, especially in extreme weather. Managing the substantial energy needed for cabin climate control and battery temperature regulation can increase energy demands by over 50 %, severely limiting range. This study conducts a comparative analysis of thermal management systems (TMS) in three popular EV vehicles, 2020 Chevrolet Bolt, 2019 Nissan Leaf Plus, and 2020 Tesla Model 3, evaluating their distinct TMS configurations and performance under varied weather conditions. Using both numerical simulations and experimental data collected on a controlled test bench at Argonne National Laboratory, we assess how TMS architecture and operational modes influence energy consumption and range. A comprehensive TMS model was developed, integrating cabin and battery thermal sub-models in the Autonomie software platform, to simulate temperature fluctuations and range impacts. Cabin climate was modeled using a mono-zonal approach, while battery cell temperature distribution was estimated through a 2D nodal structure. Each vehicle's distinct TMS setup was evaluated: the Chevrolet Bolt and Tesla Model 3 use a dual evaporator vapor compression cycle with a PTC heater for the cabin and a coolant loop for battery thermal management; the Nissan Leaf Plus employs a heat pump with a PTC heater for the cabin and air-cooling for the battery. Tests conducted at ambient temperatures of 35°C, 22°C, -7°C, and -18°C reveal significant differences in energy use and range reduction across both configurations and conditions. At 35°C, the Tesla Model 3, Chevrolet Bolt, and Nissan Leaf Plus have a range reduction of 8%, 9%, and 13%, respectively, due to air conditioning. In winter, heating technology is paramount; at -7°C, the Nissan Leaf's heat pump configuration achieves a lower range reduction (19.3%) compared to the Tesla and Chevrolet Bolt PTC heaters, which reduce range by 28.3% and 31%, respectively. Further, this study provides valuable insights for automotive engineers, EV technology researchers, and thermal management system designers aiming to enhance electric vehicle performance by understanding how different weather conditions and TMS architectures impact energy consumption and driving range.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Market participation strategy of hybrid energy resources: A New York ISO case study

Drawing on existing market designs with independent resource participation in electricity markets, this study analyzes participation models for hybrid resources combining renewable generation and storage. Two models are considered: in the first, the components operate independently, with the Independent System Operator (ISO) managing the storage state of charge (SoC); in the second, the hybrid resource acts as an integrated unit, submitting offers as a “black box” and managing its SoC internally. Using a production cost model for the zonal New York Bulk Power System, we evaluate trade-offs in system reliability, market efficiency, and asset profitability. Our results provide several key insights for policymakers, showing that the ISO-managed granular model enhances social welfare through explicit SoC management, while the simpler integrated model is more computationally efficient, but may cause more real-time violations and lower overall profits.

Bansal, Rajni Kant↗

Effect of fuel composition and EGR on spark-ignited engine combustion with LPG fueling: Experimental and numerical investigation

This paper presents an experimental and numerical investigation of a spark-ignited (SI) cooperative fuel research (CFR) engine fueled with different liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fuels and exhaust gas recirculation (EGR). Here, the effects of LPG fuel composition on engine combustion characteristics are initially evaluated at two different compression ratios (CR). Results show normal combustion at CR 7 and heavy knocking combustion at CR 10 for all the tested fuels, with a more substantial impact for the LPG fuel with high proportions of n-butane species. The Livengood-Wu (LW) integral method is then used to analyze the knock occurrence risk of individual fuel based on the reactivity of the tested fuels. The introduction of EGR then demonstrates the potential of knock intensity reduction below the borderline knock limit. A zonal-based kinetic interactions study is also performed to understand the knock mitigation effectiveness of EGR over the pressure–temperature domain relevant to SI engine operation. Finally, a multidimensional, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation model is shown to predict the LPG combustion characteristics and presents the evolution of in-cylinder temperature and chemical species to demonstrate the development of end-gas autoignition events without and with EGR.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Intersection-distribution-based remapping between arbitrary meshes for staggered multi-material arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian hydrodynamics

In this paper, we present a new intersection-distribution-based remapping method between arbitrary polygonal meshes for indirect staggered multi-material arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian hydrodynamics. All cell-centered material quantities are conservatively remapped using intersections between the Lagrangian (old, source) mesh and the rezoned (new, target) mesh. The new nodal masses are obtained by conservative distribution of all material masses in each new cell to the cell's corners and then collecting those corner masses at new nodes. This distribution is done using a local constrained optimization approach for each cell in the new mesh. In order to remap nodal momentum we first define cell-centered momentum for each cell in the old mesh, conservatively remap this to the new mesh and then conservatively distribute the new zonal momentum to each cell's bounding nodes, again using local constrained optimization. Our method also conserves total energy by applying a new nodal kinetic energy correction that relies on a process similar to that used for remapping nodal mass and momentum. Cell-centered kinetic energy is computed, conservatively remapped and then distributed to nodes. The discrepancy between this conservatively remapped and actual nodal kinetic energy is then conservatively distributed to the internal energies of the materials in the cells surrounding each node. Unlike conventional cell-based corrections of this type, this new nodal kinetic energy correction has not been observed to drive material internal energy negative in any of our testing. Unlike flux based remapping, our new intersection-distribution method can be applied to remapping between source and target meshes that are arbitrarily different, which provides superior flexibility in the rezoning strategy. Our method is accurate, essentially conservative and essentially bounds preserving.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A comprehensive review on the loss of wellbore integrity due to cement failure and available remedial methods

With the recent abrupt fluctuations in oil pricing and the need of complying with environmental and social requirements, nowadays it is an urgent call for the oil and gas industry to produce the hydrocarbon without any loss as well as in a safe manner. Cements are placed in the annular space of casing to provide zonal isolation in between wellbore and surface during the operational life cycle of the well or even after the abandonment. But this is not what happens most of the time. Cement degrades or loses its integrity through debonding either from the casing or formation and generates cracks or fractures due to varied reasons throughout the life of the well. Multiple causes contribute to the loss of wellbore integrity – either by physical, mechanical, or chemical processes. These failures lead to sustained casing pressure (SCP) and contamination of surrounding environment. To combat this issue or to restore the well integrity, multiple remedial actions have also been either implemented in the industry or proposed based on experimental research to prevent the damage or to seal the leakage in the cement sheath. Here, this paper will provide an extensive review of the underlying reasons of cement failure and the available remedial actions to minimize the loss of well integrity issue. These information are not only useful to know about the different corrective options available for us to implement in industry but also it will provide us a knowledge base regarding how we can enhance the performance of the exiting systems to battle the cement integrity problem more efficiently.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Reduced order modeling of a fluidized bed particle receiver for concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage

Oxide particles can serve as both the heat transfer and thermal energy storage (TES) media for next-generation concentrating solar power (CSP) plants where high-temperature TES enables dispatchable electricity from efficient power cycles with firing temperatures above 600 °C. Transferring heat to flowing particles at such high temperatures in a MW-scale central tower receiver remains a challenge for the CSP community. For indirect receivers with external walls to contain the particles, maintaining wall temperatures below the limits of structural metal alloys requires high heat transfer coefficients between the wall and the moving particle stream. Bubbling fluidization of downward-flowing particles can sustain high bed-wall heat transfer coefficients (> 1000 W m -2 K -1 ). Using experimentally calibrated correlations for bed-wall heat transfer and vertical particle dispersion, this study implements an axially discretized zonal model of a counterflow fluidized bed receiver to explore how bubbling fluidization may enable indirect cavity particle receivers. High bed-wall heat transfer coefficients support solar fluxes on angled cavity walls > 200 kW m -2 at peak aperture fluxes of 980 kW m -2 while maintaining external wall temperatures < 950 °C. Lateral particle dispersion enables hotter particles near the receiver leading edge to mix with cooler particles further from the leading edge to lower maximum external wall temperatures. Parametric studies identify how mass fluxes, particle dispersion, and solar concentrations impact indirect receiver thermal efficiency and uniformity for a CSP plant. These studies provide a basis for the design of indirect fluidized-bed cavity receivers that can maintain particle outlet temperatures for TES above 750 °C.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Capacity contributions of Southern Oregon offshore wind to the Pacific Northwest and California

Variable renewable energy generation poses unique capacity challenges, which increasingly depend on weather events at varying timescales. Facilitated by transmission planning, geographic and technological diversity of the generation fleet may provide a mitigation to capacity shortfalls. In this work, offshore wind (OSW) energy is sited in the areas off the West Coast between Coos Bay, Oregon, and Crescent City, California. Three generation and transmission scenarios are modeled within the Western Interconnection: (i) 3.4 gigawatts (GW) of installed OSW capacity connected to Southern Oregon through a High Voltage Alternating Current (HVAC) Radial Topology in 2030; (ii) 12.9 GW of installed OSW capacity connected to Washington, Oregon, and California through a High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) Radial Topology post-2030, and (iii) the same 12.9 GW connected to the same locations through a Multi-terminal DC (MTDC) Backbone Topology post-2030. Zonal dispatch simulations assuming coincident wind, solar, and hydropower production and loads over 18 meteorological years, accounting for temperature-dependent equipment derating and forced outages, serve as inputs to the Associated System Capacity Contribution (ASCC) methodology. The capacity credit is 33%, 25% and 34% for the 2030 HVAC Radial Topology, 2030+ HVDC Radial Topology, and 2030+ MTDC Backbone Topology, respectively. Transmission design is shown to mitigate the typical erosion of marginal capacity contribution as more OSW is developed, underscoring the opportunity for grid modernization while decarbonizing the generation mix.

17 WIND ENERGY↗