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At least 1,801 records · Page 100

Application of end-of-shift respirable crystalline silica monitoring to construction

A pilot project was conducted to determine the effect of common construction dusts as interferences in a new portable end-of-shift (EoS), direct-on-filter (DoF) sampling and analysis method for respirable crystalline silica (RCS), in this case, quartz. Construction dusts were prepared from plaster, drywall, cement and brick by grinding, aerosolizing, and collecting respirable dust with high flow rate cyclones. Filters were loaded with different levels of commercial α-quartz powder Min-u-Sil 5, and different levels of interfering dusts, singly and in combination. Samples were analyzed by Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR). Good correlations were found between nominal quartz loading (0 µg, 25 µg, 50 µg, and 100 µg) adjusted for quartz in the interfering dust and FTIR absorbance alone and in the presence of all interfering dusts. The slopes of the correlations were similar whether the loading was quartz without interference, or with plaster, drywall, and cement dusts, regardless of quantity. The results show that (a) plaster and drywall dusts do not interfere substantially; (b) cement does not interfere, but a change in the intercept suggests an effect on the background absorbance of the filter; and (c) in addition to having a substantial quartz content, brick dust contains an additional material, probably a silicate mineral, which interferes with the quartz peak. Thus, the presence of cement leads to lower quartz values and brick leads to higher values, but overall, 83% of the quartz contents predicted from the calibration data agreed within 50% of the adjusted nominal loadings within the range 20–110 µg. This result is encouraging given the high levels of interfering dusts. Nine samples loaded with smaller amounts of all four dusts together gave results within 25% of the adjusted nominal loadings. A single mixture addition of the dusts to the filter gave tighter variance in results than sequential additions. Unexpectedly, the two Certified Reference Materials (CRMs) 1878a and 1878b, gave different results when used to calibrate XRD analysis of Min-u-Sil 5.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SU-F-P-56: On a New Approach to Reconstruct the Patient Dose From Phantom Measurements

Purpose: The development of complex radiation treatment schemes emphasizes the need for advanced QA analysis methods to ensure patient safety. One such tool is the Delta4 DVH Anatomy software, where the patient dose is reconstructed from phantom measurements. Deviations in the measured dose are transferred to the patient anatomy and their clinical impact is evaluated in situ. Results from the original algorithm revealed weaknesses that may introduce artefacts in the reconstructed dose. These can lead to false negatives or obscure the effects of minor dose deviations from delivery failures. Here, we will present results from a new patient dose reconstruction algorithm. Methods: The main steps of the new algorithm are: (1) the dose delivered to a phantom is measured in a number of detector positions. (2) The measured dose is compared to an internally calculated dose distribution evaluated in said positions. The so-obtained dose difference is (3) used to calculate an energy fluence difference. This entity is (4) used as input to a patient dose correction calculation routine. Finally, the patient dose is reconstructed by adding said patient dose correction to the planned patient dose. The internal dose calculation in step (2) and (4) is based on the Pencil Beam algorithm. Results: The new patient dose reconstruction algorithm have been tested on a number of patients and the standard metrics dose deviation (DDev), distance-to-agreement (DTA) and Gamma index are improved when compared to the original algorithm. In a certain case the Gamma index (3%/3mm) increases from 72.9% to 96.6%. Conclusion: The patient dose reconstruction algorithm is improved. This leads to a reduction in non-physical artefacts in the reconstructed patient dose. As a consequence, the possibility to detect deviations in the dose that is delivered to the patient is improved. An increase in Gamma index for the PTV can be seen. The corresponding author is an employee of ScandiDos.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Range and Endurance Tradeoffs on Personal Rotorcraft Design

Rotorcraft design has always been a challenging tradeoff among overall size, capabilities, complexity, and other factors based on available technology and customer requirements. Advancements in propulsion, energy systems and other technologies have enabled new vehicles and missions; complementary advances in analysis methods and tools enable exploration of these enhanced vehicles and the evolving mission design space. A system study was performed to better understand the interdependency between vehicle design and propulsion system capabilities versus hover / loiter requirements and range capability. Three representative vertical lift vehicles were developed to explore the tradeoff in capability between hover efficiency versus range and endurance capability. The vehicles were a single-main rotor helicopter, a tilt rotor, and a vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) aircraft. Vehicle capability was limited to two or three people (including pilot or crew) and maximum range within one hour of flight (100-200 miles, depending on vehicle). Two types of propulsion and energy storage systems were used in this study. First was traditional hydrocarbon-fueled cycles (such as Otto, diesel or gas turbine cycles). Second was an all-electric system using electric motors, power management and distribution, assuming batteries for energy storage, with the possibility of hydrocarbon-fueled range extenders. The high power requirements for hover significantly reduced mission radius capability. Loiter was less power intensive, resulting in about 1/2 the equivalent mission radius penalty. With so many design variables, the VTOL aircraft has the potential to perform well for a variety of missions. This vehicle is a good candidate for additional study; component model development is also required to adequately assess performance over the design space of interest.

systems analysis↗

Range and Endurance Tradeoffs on Personal Rotorcraft Design

Rotorcraft design has always been a challenging tradeoff among overall size, capabilities, complexity, and other factors based on available technology and customer requirements. Advancements in propulsion, energy systems and other technologies have enabled new vehicles and missions; complementary advances in analysis methods and tools enable exploration of these enhanced vehicles and the evolving mission design space. A system study was performed to better understand the interdependency between vehicle design and propulsion system capabilities versus hover loiter requirements and range capability. Three representative vertical lift vehicles were developed to explore the tradeoff in capability between hover efficiency versus range and endurance capability. The vehicles were a single-main rotor helicopter, a tilt rotor, and a vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) aircraft. Vehicle capability was limited to two or three people (including pilot or crew) and maximum range within one hour of flight (100-200 miles, depending on vehicle). Two types of propulsion and energy storage systems were used in this study. First was traditional hydrocarbon-fueled cycles (such as Otto, diesel or gas turbine cycles). Second was an all-electric system using electric motors, power management and distribution, assuming batteries for energy storage, with the possibility of hydrocarbon-fueled range extenders. The high power requirements for hover significantly reduced mission radius capability. Loiter was less power intensive, resulting in about 12 the equivalent mission radius penalty. With so many design variables, the VTOL aircraft has the potential to perform well for a variety of missions. This vehicle is a good candidate for additional study; component model development is also required to adequately assess performance over the design space of interest.

systems analysis↗

Calibration and validation of NRC fuel performance models

FRAPCON and FRAPTRAN are the steady-state and transient fuel performance codes, respectively, that are used by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in performing confirmatory calculations of licensee fuel performance codes and safety analysis methods during the review and approval of these codes and methods for light-water reactors. The NRC also uses these codes to perform calculations to direct regulatory research and to assist in the development of new regulations and regulatory guides. FRAPCON and FRAPTRAN are well-validated fuel performance codes that are kept in a constant state of maintenance. FRAPCON and FRAPTRAN have an extensive database of separate effects data used to validate individual material property and fuel performance models and an integral effects database used to assess the overall code prediction within the full range of fuel operations. The key code predictions that are of regulatory interest as they relate to various specified acceptable design limits are: fuel and cladding temperature, rod internal pressure, cladding hoop strain, cladding corrosion and hydriding, and fission gas release. To assess the ability of the code to accurately predict these values, the integral assessment database consists of measurements of fuel centerline temperature, fission gas release, void volume, cladding corrosion, and cladding hoop strain. This paper will discuss the activities that are performed to ensure that FRAPCON and FRAPTRAN represent the state of the industry and will describe the separate effect and integral effect databases that are used to validate the models and are continually being expanded to ensure validation over the full range of fuel operations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Can section 45Q tax credit foster decarbonization? A case study of geologic carbon storage at Acid Gas Injection wells in the Permian Basin

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is an important pathway for meeting climate mitigation goals. While the economic viability of CCUS is well understood, previous studies do not evaluate the economic feasibility of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the Permian Basin specifically regarding the new Section 45Q tax credits. We developed a technoeconomic analysis method, evaluated the economic feasibility of CCS at the acid gas injection (AGI) wells, and assessed the implication of Section 45Q tax credits for CCS at the AGIs. We find that the compressors, well depth, and the permit and monitoring costs drive the facility costs. Compressors are the predominant contributors to capital and operating expenditure driving the levelized cost of CO 2 storage. Strategic cost reduction measures identified include 1) sourcing of low-cost electricity and 2) optimizing operational efficiency in well operations. In evaluating the impact of the tax credits on CCS projects, facility scale proved decisive. We found that facilities with an annual injection rate exceeding 10,000 MT storage capacity demonstrate economic viability contingent upon the procurement of inputs at the least cost. The new construction of AGI wells were found to be economically viable at a storage capacity of 100,000 MT. The basin is heavily focused on CCUS (tax credit – $\$$65/MT CO 2 ), which overshadows CCS ($\$$85/MT CO 2 ) opportunities. Balancing the dual objectives of CCS and CCUS requires planning and coordination for optimal resource and pore space utilization to attain the basin's decarbonization potential. We also found that CCS on AGI is a lower cost CCS option as compared to CCS on other industries.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Application of Powder Diffraction Methods to the Analysis of Short- and Long-Range Atomic Order in Nanocrystalline Diamond and SiC: The Concept of the Apparent Lattice Parameter (alp)

Two methods of the analysis of powder diffraction patterns of diamond and SiC nanocrystals are presented: (a) examination of changes of the lattice parameters with diffraction vector Q ('apparent lattice parameter', alp) which refers to Bragg scattering, and (b), examination of changes of inter-atomic distances based on the analysis of the atomic Pair Distribution Function, PDF. Application of these methods was studied based on the theoretical diffraction patterns computed for models of nanocrystals having (i) a perfect crystal lattice, and (ii), a core-shell structure, i.e. constituting a two-phase system. The models are defined by the lattice parameter of the grain core, thickness of the surface shell, and the magnitude and distribution of the strain field in the shell. X-ray and neutron experimental diffraction data of nanocrystalline SiC and diamond powders of the grain diameter from 4 nm up to micrometers were used. The effects of the internal pressure and strain at the grain surface on the structure are discussed based on the experimentally determined dependence of the alp values on the Q-vector, and changes of the interatomic distances with the grain size determined experimentally by the atomic Pair Distribution Function (PDF) analysis. The experimental results lend a strong support to the concept of a two-phase, core and the surface shell structure of nanocrystalline diamond and SiC.

Palosz, B.↗

Failure mode and effects analysis based risk profile assessment for stereotactic radiosurgery programs at three cancer centers in Brazil

Purpose: The goal of this study was to evaluate the safety and quality management program for stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) treatment processes at three radiotherapy centers in Brazil by using three industrial engineering tools (1) process mapping, (2) failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), and (3) fault tree analysis. Methods: The recommendations of Task Group 100 of American Association of Physicists in Medicine were followed to apply the three tools described above to create a process tree for SRS procedure for each radiotherapy center and then FMEA was performed. Failure modes were identified for all process steps and values of risk priority number (RPN) were calculated from O, S, and D (RPN = O × S × D) values assigned by a professional team responsible for patient care. Results: The subprocess treatment planning was presented with the highest number of failure modes for all centers. The total number of failure modes were 135, 104, and 131 for centers I, II, and III, respectively. The highest RPN value for each center is as follows: center I (204), center II (372), and center III (370). Failure modes with RPN ≥ 100: center I (22), center II (115), and center III (110). Failure modes characterized by S ≥ 7, represented 68% of the failure modes for center III, 62% for center II, and 45% for center I. Failure modes with RPNs values ≥100 and S ≥ 7, D ≥ 5, and O ≥ 5 were considered as high priority in this study. Conclusions: The results of the present study show that the safety risk profiles for the same stereotactic radiotherapy process are different at three radiotherapy centers in Brazil. Although this is the same treatment process, this present study showed that the risk priority is different and it will lead to implementation of different safety interventions among the centers. Therefore, the current practice of applying universal device-centric QA is not adequate to address all possible failures in clinical processes at different radiotherapy centers. Integrated approaches to device-centric and process specific quality management program specific to each radiotherapy center are the key to a safe quality management program.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Physiological Controls on Carbon Fluxes and Biomass Production in Miscanthus: Insights From a Process‐Based Agroecosystem Model

Biomass crops serve as essential feedstocks for renewable energy and bioproducts and play a critical role in achieving lower emissions in the transportation sector. However, dedicated perennial biomass crops such as Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus) remain underrepresented in process-based agroecosystem models, limiting robust evaluation of their economic and environmental performance. In this study, we developed a data-constrained representation of the sterile triploid Miscanthus (IL clone) within the process-based model ecosys, integrating global sensitivity analysis, ensemble simulation, and parameter calibration. Planting, harvesting, and fertilization practices consistent with field management were incorporated, and phenology was constrained using PhenoCam-derived Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) data. Using the Morris global sensitivity analysis method, we identified 11 key physiological parameters governing plant carbon, water, and nutrient relations, particularly processes associated with CO 2 assimilation. We then conducted ensemble simulations by perturbing these parameters and calibrated the model against eddy covariance fluxes and field-measured biomass. Building on the calibrated operating state, parameter-response analyses show that different photosynthetic processes influence productivity in different ways. Protein allocation determines whether productivity increases toward a higher level, whereas electron transport capacity controls additional gains once protein allocation approaches saturation. These findings demonstrate that parameter importance depends on physiological context and on which photosynthetic processes remain limiting. Calibration and validation against observations show that ecosys can reliably reproduce carbon and water fluxes, as well as both above- and belowground biomass, with post-calibration GPP R 2 improving from 0.67 to 0.95 during the calibration period and remaining high during validation (R 2 = 0.95). These results provide a mechanistic foundation for regional simulations and sustainable bioenergy assessments.

ecosys↗

The DECADE cosmic shear project III: validation of analysis pipeline using spatially inhomogeneous data

We present the pipeline for the cosmic shear analysis of the Dark Energy Camera All Data Everywhere (DECADE) weak lensing dataset: a catalog consisting of 107 million galaxies observed by the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) in the northern Galactic cap. The catalog derives from a large number of disparate observing programs and is therefore more inhomogeneous across the sky compared to existing lensing surveys. First, we use simulated data-vectors to show the sensitivity of our constraints to different analysis choices in our inference pipeline, including sensitivity to residual systematics. Next we use simulations to validate our covariance modeling for inhomogeneous datasets. Finally, we show that our choices in the end-to-end cosmic shear pipeline are robust against inhomogeneities in the survey, by extracting relative shifts in the cosmology constraints across different subsets of the footprint/catalog and showing they are all consistent within 1σ to 2σ. This is done for forty-six subsets of the data and is carried out in a fully consistent manner: for each subset of the data, we re-derive the photometric redshift estimates, shear calibrations, survey transfer functions, the data vector, measurement covariance, and finally, the cosmological constraints. Our results show that existing analysis methods for weak lensing cosmology can be fairly resilient towards inhomogeneous datasets. This also motivates exploring a wider range of image data for pursuing such cosmological constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Upper mantle structure of central and West Antarctica from array analysis of Rayleigh wave phase velocities

Abstract The seismic velocity structure of Antarctica is important, both as a constraint on the tectonic history of the continent and for understanding solid Earth interactions with the ice sheet. We use Rayleigh wave array analysis methods applied to teleseismic data from recent temporary broadband seismograph deployments to image the upper mantle structure of central and West Antarctica. Phase velocity maps are determined using a two–plane wave tomography method and are inverted for shear velocity using a Monte Carlo approach to estimate three‐dimensional velocity structure. Results illuminate the structural dichotomy between the East Antarctic Craton and West Antarctica, with West Antarctica showing thinner crust and slower upper mantle velocity. West Antarctica is characterized by a 70–100 km thick lithosphere, underlain by a low‐velocity zone to depths of at least 200 km. The slowest anomalies are beneath Ross Island and the Marie Byrd Land dome and are interpreted as upper mantle thermal anomalies possibly due to mantle plumes. The central Transantarctic Mountains are marked by an uppermost mantle slow‐velocity anomaly, suggesting that the topography is thermally supported. The presence of thin, higher‐velocity lithosphere to depths of about 70 km beneath the West Antarctic Rift System limits estimates of the regionally averaged heat flow to less than 90 mW/m 2 . The Ellsworth‐Whitmore block is underlain by mantle with velocities that are intermediate between those of the West Antarctic Rift System and the East Antarctic Craton. We interpret this province as Precambrian continental lithosphere that has been altered by Phanerozoic tectonic and magmatic activity.

Heeszel, David S.↗

Time-Dependent Cryospheric Longwave Surface Emissivity Feedback in the Community Earth System Model

Frozen and unfrozen surfaces exhibit different longwave surface emissivities with different spectral characteristics, and outgoing longwave radiation and cooling rates are reduced for unfrozen scenes relative to frozen ones. In this paper physically realistic modeling of spectrally resolved surface emissivity throughout the coupled model components of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is advanced, and implications for model high-latitude biases and feedbacks are evaluated. It is shown that despite a surface emissivity feedback amplitude that is, at most, a few percent of the surface albedo feedback amplitude, the inclusion of realistic, harmonized longwave, spectrally resolved emissivity information in CESM1.2.2 reduces wintertime Arctic surface temperature biases from -7.2 ± 0.9 K to -1.1 ± 1.2 K, relative to observations. The bias reduction is most pronounced in the Arctic Ocean, a region for which Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) models exhibit the largest mean wintertime cold bias, suggesting that persistent polar temperature biases can be lessened by including this physically based process across model components. The ice emissivity feedback of CESM1.2.2 is evaluated under a warming scenario with a kernel-based approach, and it is found that emissivity radiative kernels exhibit water vapor and cloud cover dependence, thereby varying spatially and decreasing in magnitude over the course of the scenario from secular changes in atmospheric thermodynamics and cloud patterns. Finally, accounting for the temporally varying radiative responses can yield diagnosed feedbacks that differ in sign from those obtained from conventional climatological feedback analysis methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probe the Localized Electrochemical Environment Effects and Electrode Reaction Dynamics for Metal Batteries using In Situ 3D Microscopy

Uncontrollable dendrite growth is closely related to non-uniform reaction environments. However, there is a lack of understanding and analysis methods to probe the localized electrochemical environment (LEE). Here the effects of the LEE are investigated, including localized ion concentrations, current density, and electric potential, on metal plating/stripping dynamics and dendrite minimization. A novel in situ 3D microscopy technique is developed to image the morphology dynamics and deposition rate of Zn plating/stripping processes on 3D Zn–Mn anodes. Using the in situ 3D microscope, the electrode morphology changes during the reactions are directly imaged and Zn deposition rate maps at different time points are obtained. It is found that reaction kinetics are highly correlated to LEE and electrode morphology. To further quantify the LEE effects, the digital twin technique is employed that allows the accurate calculation of the electrochemical environments, such as localized ion concentrations, current density, and electric potential, which cannot be directly measured from experiments. We found that the curvature of the 3D electrode surface determines the LEE and significantly influences reaction kinetics. This provides a new strategy to minimize the dendrite formation by designing and optimizing the 3D geometry of the electrode to control the LEE.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Probing the Behavior of Composition‐Tunable Ultrathin PtNi Nanowires for CO Oxidation and Small‐Molecule Electrocatalytic Reactions

We have successfully synthesized ultrathin nanowires of pure Pt, Pt 99 Ni 1 , Pt 9 Ni 1 , and Pt 7 Ni 3 using a modified room-temperature soft-template method. Analysis of both methanol oxidation reaction (MOR) and ethanol oxidation reaction (EOR) results found that the Pt 7 Ni 3 samples yielded the best performance with specific activities of 0.36 and 0.34 mA/cm 2 respectively. Additionally, formic acid oxidation reaction (FAOR) tests noted that both Pt and PtNi nanowires oxidize small organic molecules (SOMs) via an indirect pathway. CO oxidation data suggests little measurable performance without any pre-reduction treatment; however, after annealing in H 2 , we detected significantly improved CO 2 formation for both Pt 9 Ni 1 and Pt 7 Ni 3 motifs. These observations highlight the importance of pre-treating these nanowires under a reducing atmosphere to enhance their performance for CO oxidation. To explain these findings, we collected extended x-ray adsorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectroscopy data, consistent with the presence of partial alloying with a tendency for Pt and Ni to segregate, thereby implying the formation of a Pt-rich shell coupled with a Ni-rich core. Here, we also observed that the degree of alloying within the nanowires increased after annealing in a reducing atmosphere, a finding deduced through analysis of the coordination numbers and calculations of Cowley's short range order parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reliable machine prognostic health management in the presence of missing data

Prognostics and health management enables the prediction of future degradation and remaining useful life (RUL) for in-service systems based on historical and contemporary data, showing promise for many practical applications. One major challenge for prognostics is the common occurrence of missing values in time-series data, often caused by disruptions in sensor communication or hardware/software failures. Another major concern is that the sufficient prior knowledge of critical component degradation with a clear failure threshold is often not readily available in practice. These issues can significantly hinder the application of advanced signal and data analysis methods and consequently degrade the health management performance. In this article, we propose a novel data-driven framework that is capable of providing accurate and reliable predictions of degradation and RUL. In this approach, one-hot health state indicators are appended to the historical time series so that the model learns end-of-life automatically. A modified gate recurrent unit based variational autoencoder is employed in generative adversarial networks to model the temporal irregularity of the incomplete time series. Furthermore, experiments on multivariate time-series datasets collected from real-world aeroengines verify that significant performance improvement can be achieved using the proposed model for robust long-term prognostics.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification of Vapor Sorption and Diffusion in Heterogeneous Polymers

A high-fidelity model of kinetic and equilibrium sorption and diffusion is developed and exercised. The gas-diffusion model is coupled with a triple-sorption mechanism: Henry’s law absorption, Langmuir adsorption, and pooling or clustering of molecules at higher partial pressures. Sorption experiments are conducted and span a range of relative humidities (0-95%) and temperatures (30-60°C). Kinetic and equilibrium sorption properties and effective diffusivity are determined by minimizing the absolute difference between measured and modeled uptakes. Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis methods are described and exercised herein to demonstrate the capability of this modeling approach. Water uptake in silica-filled and unfilled poly(dimethylsiloxane) networks is investigated; however, the model is versatile enough to be used with a wide range of materials and vapors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Novel Rapid Screening of Basic Immobilized Amine Sorbent/Catalyst Water Stability by a UV/Vis/Cu 2+ Technique

Abstract Time‐consuming thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) decomposition study is a typical practice to assess the stability of fresh and water‐treated basic immobilized amine sorbents (BIAS)/catalysts. This work presents a faster and more precise spectroscopic UV/Vis/Cu 2+ sorbent screening technique that quantifies aqueous amines washed from the BIAS by using UV‐active amine/Cu 2+ complexes. Six BIAS‐based catalysts, containing different amine species and a crosslinker within silica, were treated with ultrapure water and then analyzed for their CO 2 capture performance and amine leach resistance/stability by using TGA (catalysts, approximately 4 h) and UV/Vis/Cu 2+ techniques (wash solution, few minutes). A comparative analysis revealed that directly quantifying washed amines with UV/Vis/Cu 2+ is 9–127 times more precise than indirect testing of the sorbents by TGA. Similar trends in the H 2 O stability profiles of the catalysts [organic content retained values (OCR)] were reported by both analysis methods, allowing UV/Vis/Cu 2+ to replace TGA for quantifying unstable leached amines. The UV/Vis/Cu 2+ OCR results could be used to predict the CO 2 ‐capture stability profile of the sorbents, confirming the reliability of this technique to rapidly screen catalyst stability and performance.

Wilfong, Walter Christopher↗

Surface and subsurface oceanographic features drive forage fish distributions and aggregations: Implications for prey availability to top predators in the US Northeast Shelf ecosystem

Abstract Forage fishes are a critical food web link in marine ecosystems, aggregating in a hierarchical patch structure over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Surface‐level forage fish aggregations (FFAs) represent a concentrated source of prey available to surface‐ and shallow‐foraging marine predators. Existing survey and analysis methods are often imperfect for studying forage fishes at scales appropriate to foraging predators, making it difficult to quantify predator–prey interactions. In many cases, general distributions of forage fish species are known; however, these may not represent surface‐level prey availability to predators. Likewise, we lack an understanding of the oceanographic drivers of spatial patterns of prey aggregation and availability or forage fish community patterns. Specifically, we applied Bayesian joint species distribution models to bottom trawl survey data to assess species‐ and community‐level forage fish distribution patterns across the US Northeast Continental Shelf (NES) ecosystem. Aerial digital surveys gathered data on surface FFAs at two project sites within the NES, which we used in a spatially explicit hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the abundance and size of surface FFAs. We used these models to examine the oceanographic drivers of forage fish distributions and aggregations. Our results suggest that, in the NES, regions of high community species richness are spatially consistent with regions of high surface FFA abundance. Bathymetric depth drove both patterns, while subsurface features, such as mixed layer depth, primarily influenced aggregation behavior and surface features, such as sea surface temperature, sub‐mesoscale eddies, and fronts influenced forage fish diversity. In combination, these models help quantify the availability of forage fishes to marine predators and represent a novel application of spatial models to aerial digital survey data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

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