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DOE OSTI2021

NFD Methodology Report

The NetFlow Dynamics (NFD) model was developed for estimating the availability of a commodity supplied by a national- or regional-scale infrastructure following unexpected disruption of one or more of its components. The large scope of the disruptions of interest produce changes in availability lasting days to weeks. Consequently, the model does not resolve daily variations in system state and does not include the long-term processes that cause infrastructures to evolve as assets are added and removed according to owners ’planning decisions. NFD simulates fluid flow, including petroleum and other incompressible fluids, as well as natural gas and other compressible fluids, through pipeline networks characterized by limits on transmission capacity and storage. It was designed to enable efficient exploration of possible transmission system responses to large-scale disruptions lasting for days or longer. The model formulation reflects constraints on transmission and storage capacity imposed by the physical system assets. Those capacity limits are input parameters and are not derived from more basic system properties such as pipeline diameters and compressor power. A system’s response to a large disruption is controlled by operational decisions as well as damage to physical assets. The NFD model formulation allows users to efficiently consider alternative scenarios about the way remaining capacity might be used so that the analysis result appropriately reflects uncertainties about operator response.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the reductions in mortality from air-pollution by cancelling new coal power plants

Deep decarbonization paths to the 1.5°C or 2°C temperature stabilization futures require a rapid reduction in conventional coal-fired power plants, but countries are currently building 223 GW of new coal power capacity and plan to build 377 GW more in the next decade. Coal-fired plants are also a major contributor to air pollution related health impacts. Here, we couple an integrated human-earth system model (GCAM) with an air quality model (TM5-FASST) to examine regional health co-benefits from cancelling new coal-fired plants worldwide. Additionally, we find that cancelling all new proposed projects would decrease air pollution related premature mortality between 101,388 - 213,205 deaths (2-5%) in 2030, and 213,414 - 373,054 (5-8%) in 2050, globally, but heavily concentrated in developing Asia. Furthermore, we estimate that strengthening the climate target from 2°C to 1.5°C would avoid 326,351 additional mortalities in 2030, of which 251,011 (75%) are attributable to the incremental coal plant shutdown.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2015

Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Tumors Greater Than 5 cm: Safety and Efficacy

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine outcomes of patients with node-negative medically inoperable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) whose primary tumors exceeded 5 cm and were treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). Methods and Materials: We surveyed our institutional prospective lung SBRT registry to identify treated patients with tumors >5 cm. Treatment outcomes for local control (LC), locoregional control (LRC), disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS) were assessed by Kaplan-Meier estimates. Toxicities were graded according to Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 4. Mean pretreatment pulmonary function test values were compared to mean posttreatment values. Results: From December 2003 to July 2014, 40 patients met study criteria. Median follow-up was 10.8 months (range: 0.4-70.3 months). Median age was 76 years (range: 56-90 years), median body mass index was 24.3 (range: 17.7-37.2), median Karnofsky performance score was 80 (range: 60-90), and median Charlson comorbidity index score was 2 (range: 0-5). Median forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) was 1.41 L (range: 0.47-3.67 L), and median diffusion capacity (DLCO) was 47% of predicted (range: 29%-80%). All patients were staged by fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography/computed tomography staging, and 47.5% underwent mediastinal staging by endobronchial ultrasonography. Median tumor size was 5.6 cm (range: 5.1-10 cm), median SBRT dose was 50 Gy (range: 30-60 Gy) in 5 fractions (range: 3-10 fractions). Eighteen-month LC, LRC, DFS, and OS rates were 91.2%, 64.4%, 34.6%, and 59.7%, respectively. Distant failure was the predominant pattern of failure (32.5%). Three patients (7.5%) experienced grade 3 or higher toxicity. Mean posttreatment FEV1 was not significantly reduced (P=.51), but a statistically significant absolute 6.5% (P=.03) reduction in DLCO was observed. Conclusions: Lung SBRT for medically inoperable node-negative NSCLC with primary tumors larger than 5 cm is safe and provides excellent local control with limited toxicity. The predominant pattern of failure in this population was distant failure.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2017

A first principles study of spinel ZnFe 2 O 4 for electrode materials in lithium-ion batteries

Zinc ferrite (ZnFe 2 O 4 ) is a perspective lithium ion battery material, owing to its large theoretical capacity (1000 mAh/g). Here, we report a density functional study of the discharge process at early stage from ZnFe 2 O 4 up to LixZnFe2O4 (x = 2), aiming to provide fundamental understanding of the mechanism. According to our calculations, with x increasing up to 1 the intercalation of Li+ ions prefer octahedral 16c sites, which is accompanied by Zn 2+ ion displacement from tetrahedral 8a sites to 16c sites starting at x = 0.25 and the gain in stability; while the stability decreases for 1 < x ≤ 2 due to the occupation of Li+ ions at the less active tetrahedral 8a/48f/8b sites. The open-circuit voltages estimated based on the structures of stable intermediates identified by the DFT calculations are in good agreement with the experimental values. Our results highlight the importance of the interplay among Li, O 2- , Fe 3+ and Zn 2+ in enabling the high performance as LIB materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Refueling Infrastructure Scoping and Feasibility Assessment for Hydrogen Rail Applications

The feasibility and component cost of hydrogen rail refueling infrastructure is examined. Example reference stations can inform future studies on components and systems specifically for hydrogen rail refueling facilities. All of the 5 designs considered assumed the bulk storage of liquid hydrogen on-site, from which either gaseous or liquid hydrogen would be dispensed. The first design was estimated to refuel 10 multiple unit trains per day, each train containing 260 kg of gaseous hydrogen at 350 bar on-board. The second base design targeted the refueling of 50 passenger locomotives, each with 400 kg of gaseous hydrogen on-board at 350 bar. Variations from this basic design were made to consider the effect of two different filling times, two different hydrogen compression methods, and two different station design approaches. For each design variation, components were sized, approximate costs were estimated for major components, and physical layouts were created. For both gaseous hydrogen-dispensing base designs, the design of direct-fill using a cryopump design was the lowest cost due to the high cost of the cascade storage system and gas compressor. The last three base designs all assumed that liquid hydrogen was dispensed into tender cars for freight locomotives that required 7,500 kg of liquid hydrogen, and the three different designs assumed that 5, 50, or 200 tender cars were refueled every day. The total component costs are very different for each design, because each design has a very different dispensing capacity. The total component cost for these three designs are driven by the cost of the liquid hydrogen tank; additionally, delivering that much liquid hydrogen to the refueling facility may not be practical. Many of the designs needed the use of multiple evaporators, compressors, and cryopumps operating in parallel to meet required flow rates. In the future, the components identified here can be improved and scaled-up to better fit the needs of heavy-duty refueling facilities. This study provides basic feasibility and first-order design guidance for hydrogen refueling facilities serving emerging rail applications.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS2010

Human Perception of Ambiguous Inertial Motion Cues

Human daily activities on Earth involve motions that elicit both tilt and translation components of the head (i.e. gazing and locomotion). With otolith cues alone, tilt and translation can be ambiguous since both motions can potentially displace the otolithic membrane by the same magnitude and direction. Transitions between gravity environments (i.e. Earth, microgravity and lunar) have demonstrated to alter the functions of the vestibular system and exacerbate the ambiguity between tilt and translational motion cues. Symptoms of motion sickness and spatial disorientation can impair human performances during critical mission phases. Specifically, Space Shuttle landing records show that particular cases of tilt-translation illusions have impaired the performance of seasoned commanders. This sensorimotor condition is one of many operational risks that may have dire implications on future human space exploration missions. The neural strategy with which the human central nervous system distinguishes ambiguous inertial motion cues remains the subject of intense research. A prevailing theory in the neuroscience field proposes that the human brain is able to formulate a neural internal model of ambiguous motion cues such that tilt and translation components can be perceptually decomposed in order to elicit the appropriate bodily response. The present work uses this theory, known as the GIF resolution hypothesis, as the framework for experimental hypothesis. Specifically, two novel motion paradigms are employed to validate the neural capacity of ambiguous inertial motion decomposition in ground-based human subjects. The experimental setup involves the Tilt-Translation Sled at Neuroscience Laboratory of NASA JSC. This two degree-of-freedom motion system is able to tilt subjects in the pitch plane and translate the subject along the fore-aft axis. Perception data will be gathered through subject verbal reports. Preliminary analysis of perceptual data does not indicate that the GIF resolution hypothesis is completely valid for non-rotational periodic motions. Additionally, human perception of translation is impaired without visual or spatial reference. The performance of ground-base subjects in estimating tilt after brief training is comparable with that of crewmembers without training.

Zhang, Guan-Lu↗

DOE OSTI2018

An updated assessment of oil market disruption risks

The probability of the size and duration of another oil disruption is critical to estimating the value of any policies for reducing the economic damages from a sudden oil supply disruption. The Energy Modeling Forum at Stanford University developed a risk assessment framework and evaluated the likelihood of one or more foreign oil disruptions over the next ten years. Leading geopolitical, military and oil-market experts provided their expertise on the probability of different events occurring, and their corresponding link to major disruptions in key oil market regions. The study evaluated 5 primary regions of production: Saudi Arabia, Other Persian Gulf, Africa, Latin America, and Russian / Caspian States. Disruptions are defined as being net of offsets (e.g., OPEC spare capacity), with the notable exception that the SPR is not included as a source of offsets. Furthermore, at least once during the 10-year time frame (2016–2025), there exists approximately an 80% probability of a net (of offsets) disruption of 2 MMBD (million barrels per day) or more lasting at least 1 month.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Rare Earth Production in the United States: A Concise Review of Resource Development and Commercial Processes

This review article presents a concise review of estimated resources, processing methods and challenges involved in domestic rare earth mining projects in the United States (US). It also highlights the current status of major mining projects, anticipated rare earth production in the near future, and commercial projects utilizing non-traditional feedstocks for rare earth production and recycling. Based on the current industry outlook, opportunities for R&D have also been highlighted. Perspective on domestic rare earth production capability is essential because global rare earth production is currently dominated by China. Given potential export controls by China, this imbalance has created supply chain risk. The US and other countries have limited rare earth production capacity and relatively little expertise in rare earth processing. However, in the last decade, efforts have been made by several nations, including the US, to reduce their reliance on China for rare earth and other critical minerals. The US is currently investing in projects to develop domestic rare earth separation and refining capacity. These projects are discussed here. When backed by R&D and government support, these projects have potential to make significant progress towards establishment of domestic rare earth separation capabilities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2015

An evaluation of in vivo models for toxicokinetics of hexavalent chromium in the stomach

Hexavalent chromium (Cr6) is a drinking water contaminant that has been detected in most of the water systems throughout the United States. In 2-year drinking water bioassays, the National Toxicology Program (NTP) found clear evidence of carcinogenic activity in male and female rats and mice. Because reduction of Cr6 to trivalent chromium (Cr3) is an important detoxifying step in the gastrointestinal (GI) tract prior to systemic absorption, models have been developed to estimate the extent of reduction in humans and animals. The objective of this work was to use a revised model of ex vivo Cr6 reduction kinetics in gastric juice to analyze the potential reduction kinetics under in vivo conditions for mice, rats and humans. A published physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was adapted to incorporate the new reduction model. This paper focuses on the toxicokinetics of Cr6 in the stomach compartment, where most of the extracellular Cr6 reduction is believed to occur in humans. Within the range of doses administered by the NTP bioassays, neither the original nor revised models predict saturation of stomach reducing capacity to occur in vivo if applying default parameters. However, both models still indicate that mice exhibit the lowest extent of reduction in the stomach, meaning that a higher percentage of the Cr6 dose may escape stomach reduction in that species. Similarly, both models predict that humans exhibit the highest extent of reduction at low doses. - Highlights: • We outline a new in vivo model for hexavalent chromium reduction in the stomach. • We examine in vivo reduction for mice, rats, and humans under varying conditions. • Species differences in toxicokinetics may explain susceptibility. • We show that a simplified stomach reduction model is adequate for extrapolation. • Internal dose uncertainties still exist.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2005

Artificial Gravity Research Project

Protecting the health, safety, and performance of exploration-class mission crews against the physiological deconditioning resulting from long-term weightlessness during transit and long-term hypogravity during surface operations will require effective, multi-system countermeasures. Artificial gravity (AG), which would replace terrestrial gravity with inertial forces generated by rotating the transit vehicle or by a human centrifuge device within the transit vehicle or surface habitat, has long been considered a potential solution. However, despite its attractiveness as an efficient, multi-system countermeasure and its potential for improving the environment and simplifying operational activities (e.g., WCS, galley, etc.), much still needs to be learned regarding the human response to rotating environments before AG can be successfully implemented. This paper will describe our approach for developing and implementing a rigorous AG Research Project to address the key biomedical research questions that must be answered before developing effective AG countermeasure implementation strategies for exploration-class missions. The AG Research Project will be performed at JSC, ARC, extramural academic and government research venues, and international partner facilities maintained by DLR and IMBP. The Project includes three major ground-based human research subprojects that will lead to flight testing of intermittent short-radius AG in ISS crewmembers after 201 0, continuous long-radius AG in CEV crews transiting to and from the Moon, and intermittent short-radius AG plus exercise in lunar habitats. These human ground-based subprojects include: 1) a directed, managed international short-radius project to investigate the multi-system effectiveness of intermittent AG in human subjects deconditioned by bed rest, 2) a directed, managed long-radius project to investigate the capacity of humans to live and work for extended periods in rotating environments, and 3) a focused, investigator-initiated project to investigate system-specific adaptation to and from rotating environments. The AG Research Project also includes two major animal research subprojects: 1) a directed, managed ground-based subproject using rodents and, possibly, sub-human primates, to address mechanistic issues that cannot be studied in humans, to rapidly develop higher sample numbers than can be achieved in the human subprojects, and to establish feasible parameter operating bands to reduce the breadth of the human subprojects, and 2) a flight subproject using rodents to estimate the physiological effects of long term exposure to hypogravity and to investigate the effects of contamination by terrestrial gravity in estimating AG effectiveness. The animal flight subproject would be performed aboard ISS using the CAM module in approximately the 2008-201 1 timeframe. The paper will first present an overview of the key biomedical research questions to be answered. It will then describe the overall approaches to be utilized in developing and implementing the AG Research Project, including definition of the intended scientific research, management and development approaches, identification of roles and responsibilities, risk management, and definition of project deliverables. The primary focus of the paper will be on the first of the three ground-based human research subprojects, since it is the only one currently in development and is scheduled to start active subject investigations in April of 2005.

Kamman, Michelle R.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Structural Analysis of Test Flight Vehicles with Multifunctional Energy Storage

Under the NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) Convergent Aeronautical Solutions (CAS) project, NASA Glenn Research Center has been leading Multifunctional Structures for High Energy Lightweight Load-bearing Storage (M-SHELLS) research efforts. The technology of integrating load-carrying structures with electrical energy storage capacity has the potential to reduce the overall weight of future electric aircraft. The proposed project goals were to develop M-SHELLS in the form of honeycomb coupons and subcomponents, integrate them into the structure, and conduct low-risk flight tests onboard a remotely piloted small aircraft. Experimental M-SHELLS energy-storing coupons were fabricated and tested in the laboratory for their electrical and mechanical properties. In this paper, finite element model development and structural analyses of two small test aircraft candidates are presented. The finite element analysis of the initial two-spar wing is described for strain, deflection, and weight estimation. After a test aircraft Tempest was acquired, a load- deflection test of the wing was conducted. A finite element model of the Tempest was then developed based on the test aircraft dimensions and construction detail. The component weight analysis from the finite element model and test measurements were correlated. Structural analysis results with multifunctional energy storage panels in the fuselage of the test vehicle are presented. Although the flight test was cancelled because of programmatic reasons and time constraints, the structural analysis results indicate that the mid-fuselage floor composite panel could provide structural integrity with minimal weight penalty while supplying electrical energy. To explore potential future applications of the multifunctional structure, analyses of the NASA X-57 Maxwell electric aircraft and a NASA N+3 Technology Conventional Configuration (N3CC) fuselage are presented. Secondary aluminum structure in the fuselage sub-floor and cargo area were partially replaced with reinforced five-layer composite panels with M-SHELLS honeycomb core. The N3CC fuselage weight reduction associated with each design without risking structural integrity are described. The structural analysis and weight estimation with the application of composite M-SHELLS panels to the N3CC fuselage indicate a 3.2% reduction in the fuselage structural weight, prior to accounting for the additional weight of core material required to complete the energy storage functionality.

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek↗

DOE OSTI2014

Investigation on synchronization of the offset printing process for fine patterning and precision overlay

Offset printing processes are promising candidates for producing printed electronics due to their capacity for fine patterning and suitability for mass production. To print high-resolution patterns with good overlay using offset printing, the velocities of two contact surfaces, which ink is transferred between, should be synchronized perfectly. However, an exact velocity of the contact surfaces is unknown due to several imperfections, including tolerances, blanket swelling, and velocity ripple, which prevents the system from being operated in the synchronized condition. In this paper, a novel method of measurement based on the sticking model of friction force was proposed to determine the best synchronized condition, i.e., the condition in which the rate of synchronization error is minimized. It was verified by experiment that the friction force can accurately represent the rate of synchronization error. Based on the measurement results of the synchronization error, the allowable margin of synchronization error when printing high-resolution patterns was investigated experimentally using reverse offset printing. There is a region where the patterning performance is unchanged even though the synchronization error is varied, and this may be viewed as indirect evidence that printability performance is secured when there is no slip at the contact interface. To understand what happens at the contact surfaces during ink transfer, the deformation model of the blanket's surface was developed. The model estimates how much deformation on the blanket's surface can be borne by the synchronization error when there is no slip at the contact interface. In addition, the model shows that the synchronization error results in scale variation in the machine direction (MD), which means that the printing registration in the MD can be adjusted actively by controlling the synchronization if there is a sufficient margin of synchronization error to guarantee printability. The effect of synchronization on the printing registration was verified experimentally using gravure offset printing. The variations in synchronization result in the differences in the MD scale, and the measured MD scale matches exactly with the modeled MD scale.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2013

Summary of: Simulating the Value of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a Production Cost Model (Presentation)

Concentrating solar power (CSP) deployed with thermal energy storage (TES) provides a dispatchable source of renewable energy. The value of CSP with TES, as with other potential generation resources, needs to be established using traditional utility planning tools. Production cost models, which simulate the operation of grid, are often used to estimate the operational value of different generation mixes. CSP with TES has historically had limited analysis in commercial production simulations. This document describes the implementation of CSP with TES in a commercial production cost model. It also describes the simulation of grid operations with CSP in a test system consisting of two balancing areas located primarily in Colorado.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

A multi-scale spatial approach to address environmental effects of small hydropower development

Hydropower development continues to grow worldwide in developed and developing countries. While the ecological and physical responses to dam construction have been well documented, translating this information into planning for hydropower development is extremely difficult. Very few studies have conducted environmental assessments to guide site-specific or widespread hydropower development. Herein, we propose a spatial approach for estimating environmental effects of hydropower development at multiple scales, as opposed to individual site-by-site assessments (e.g., environmental impact assessment). Because the complex, process-driven effects of future hydropower development may be uncertain or, at best, limited by available information, we invested considerable effort in describing novel approaches to represent environmental concerns using spatial data and in developing the spatial footprint of hydropower infrastructure. Furthermore, we then use two case studies in the US, one at the scale of the conterminous US and another within two adjoining rivers basins, to examine how environmental concerns can be identified and related to areas of varying energy capacity. We use combinations of reserve-design planning and multi-metric ranking to visualize tradeoffs among environmental concerns and potential energy capacity. Spatial frameworks, like the one presented, are not meant to replace more in-depth environmental assessments, but to identify information gaps and measure the sustainability of multi-development scenarios as to inform policy decisions at the basin or national level. Most importantly, the approach should foster discussions among environmental scientists and stakeholders regarding solutions to optimize energy development and environmental sustainability.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants

Federal hydropower plants account for approximately half of installed US conventional hydropower capacity, and are an important part of the national renewable energy portfolio. Utilizing the strong linear relationship between the US Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff and annual hydropower generation, a runoff-based assessment approach is introduced in this study to project changes in annual and regional hydropower generation in multiple power marketing areas. Future climate scenarios are developed with a series of global and regional climate models, and the model output is bias-corrected to be consistent with observed data for the recent past. Using this approach, the median decrease in annual generation at federal projects is projected to be less than –2 TWh, with an estimated ensemble uncertainty of ±9 TWh. Although these estimates are similar to the recently observed variability in annual hydropower generation, and may therefore appear to be manageable, significantly seasonal runoff changes are projected and it may pose significant challenges in water systems with higher limits on reservoir storage and operational flexibility. Lastly, future assessments will be improved by incorporating next-generation climate models, by closer examination of extreme events and longer-term change, and by addressing the interactions among hydropower and other water uses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Economic Analysis of an Electric Thermal Energy Storage System Using Solid Particles for Grid Electricity Storage

As renewable power generation becomes the mainstream new-built energy source, energy storage will become an indispensable need to complement the uncertainty of renewable resources to firm the power supply. When phasing out fossil-fuel power plants to meet the carbon neutral utility target in the midcentury around the world, large capacity of energy storage will be needed to provide reliable grid power. The renewable power integration with storage can support future carbon-free utility and has several significant impacts including increasing the value of renewable generation to the grid, improving the peak-load response, and balancing the electricity supply and demand. Long-duration energy storage (10–100 hours duration) can potentially complement the reduction of fossil-fuel baseload generation that otherwise would risk grid security when a large portion of grid power comes from variable renewable sources. Current energy storage methods based on pumped storage hydropower or batteries have many limitations. Thermal energy storage (TES) has unique advantages in scale and siting flexibility to provide grid-scale storage capacity. A particle-based TES system has promising cost and performance for the future growing energy storage needs. This paper introduces the system and components required for the particle TES to be technically and economically competitive. A technoeconomic analysis based on preliminary component designs and performance shows that the particle TES integrated with an efficient air-Brayton combined cycle power system can provide power for several days by low-cost, high-performance storage cycles. It addresses grid storage needs by enabling large-scale grid integration of intermittent renewables like wind and solar, thereby increasing their grid value. The design specifications and cost estimations of major components in a commercial scale system are presented in this paper. The cost model provides insights for further development and cost comparison with competing technologies.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗

DOE OSTI2020

Introduction to this special section: Geothermal energy

Geothermal energy is a global renewable resource that has the potential to provide a significant portion of baseload energy in many regions. In the United States, it has the potential to provide 8.5% of the electric generation capacity by the middle of the century. In general, geothermal systems require heat, permeability, and water to be viable for energy generation. However, with current technologies, only heat is strictly necessary in a native system. Engineered geothermal systems (EGS) introduce water into the subsurface at elevated pressures and reduced temperatures and enhance permeability through hydraulic and/or shear fracturing. Additionally, although moderate- to high-temperature resources currently dominate geothermal energy production, low-temperature resources have been utilized for direct-use cases. When well balanced and maintained, geothermal resources can produce significant amounts of heat and achieve long-term sustainability on the order of an estimated tens to hundreds of years.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

California CO 2 Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (C2SAFE): Final Technical Report

The California CO 2 Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (C2SAFE) project conducted a preliminary study into the feasibility of a commercial-scale carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage complex located in California’s Southern San Joaquin Valley (SSJV). The work represents the first phase of a multi-phased development approach outlined by the United States Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Carbon Storage Assurance and Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) program meant to develop carbon storage sites capable of permanently storing 50 million metric tonnes of CO 2 , or greater, injected over a typical facility life of 20 to 30 years. This report represents the culmination of work performed under C2SAFE and outlines a phased implementation plan for large-scale, industrial carbon capture and permanent storage in California’s SSJV. The report is meant to be a standalone document and as such provides high-level summaries of all tasks of the project, but is also meant to complement the other three topical reports issued by the project – reports referenced herein. The study considered multiple scenarios including an east-side storage facility, a west-side storage facility, and potential multi-site storage facilities. The east-side storage facility is to be located at Clean Energy Systems, Inc.’s Kimberlina Power Plant, or nearby, and the west-side facility will be located at the California Resources Corporation’s (CRC’s) Elk Hills oil field. The majority of carbon emissions are planned to be captured from existing sources and transported to the selected and verified storage site(s). Capture from the single closest source to the eastern storage facility and the sources within the Elk Hills field would meet the CarbonSAFE storage goal of 50 million tonnes. The study has shown there is sufficient storage capacity to meet this requirement and more; thus, capture from any of the numerous additional large nearby sources would substantially leverage the CarbonSAFE investment. A comparison of preliminary CO 2 capture, transportation, and storage costs to economic value and incentives in the state shows current market conditions make it economically feasible to develop large-scale industrial storage sites in California’s SSJV. The business case for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in California’s SSJV appears economically viable today for large CO 2 point sources involved in the production of transportation fuels, such as oilfield cogeneration units and steam boilers. The overall levelized CCS cost is estimated at roughly 125 per tonne of CO 2 , which includes CO 2 amine-solvent post-combustion capture, transportation, and storage. The levelized CO 2 capture cost is based on today’s technology, with no future cost reduction factored in for technology improvement. The sum of the value of incentives and revenue from California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits (discounted roughly 20% from their current transaction value), sale of California cap-and-trade emission allowances, and Section 45Q tax credits—either for saline storage or the Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) credit plus CO 2 sales revenue—is about 165/tonne-CO 2 . The economic viability of CCS for Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plants in the SSJV is more site-specific. A plant providing power solely to the electric grid, if it added CCS, should be eligible for Section 45Q tax credits and could sell its excess cap-and-trade emission allowances, but it would not generate LCFS credits. Using the cost and incentive values detailed in this report, it would not be economical for such a plant to add CCS today, barring other considerations. An NGCC plant within an oilfield (e.g., CRC Elk Hills and NRG Sunrise) that provides power to the oilfield as well as to the grid should receive “partial credit” in terms of generating LCFS credits if it added CCS (pro-rated for the fraction of power going to the oilfield). Such a plant should also be eligible for Section 45Q tax credits and garner revenue from selling its excess cap-and-trade emission allowances. Using the cost and incentive values described in this report, the economic viability of adding CCS today would depend on the relative fractions of electricity supplied to the oilfield and the grid. As the value of cap-and-trade emission allowances grows over time (either by market forces or the escalating floor price), the relative fraction of power needing to remain in the oilfield to achieve “breakeven” would diminish. At some point, even plants providing all their power to the grid would be candidates for economical CCS application. The C2SAFE team has proposed to expand upon the knowledge gained during this study by conducting a detailed feasibility assessment under a follow-on phase of the program, Phase II – Feasibility. This would include detailed data collection at the two sites, analysis, reporting, stakeholder outreach, and risk mitigation activities to support the development of a commercial carbon storage complex in the SSJV.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

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