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Health Assessment and Performance Monitoring of Large Machine Diagnostics

Presentation to be given at the CCS-6 Statistical Seminar Series. Regularly maintained and operated diagnostic machines are a backbone of data collection and are a vital component of the Stockpile Stewardship Program’s efforts to better understand nuclear physics. The Cygnus X-ray machine, stationed at the Nevada National Security Site’s U1a underground facility, is one such diagnostic that provides a radiographic capability for the subcritical experiment program. Component failures within Cygnus can result in catastrophic downtime for the diagnostic, affecting performance, schedules, and cost. However, over the years various measurements have been collected on the two Cygnus axes, including voltage and current measurements at different locations, which we believe have predictive power to indicate machine health. We will share preliminary insight into this data and the machine learning approaches we are taking to assess Cygnus’ health, observe declining performance, and predict failures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Enhancing Modeling and Simulation for Effective Protection Strategies

This report was created by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to document the principles and methodology of performance data collection and integration with modeling and simulation tools to better facilitate the performance evaluation of physical protection systems (PPS). Results and conclusions from the use of modeling and simulation tools are only as good as the data employed by the tools when conducting analysis. Acquiring the performance testing data necessary to ensure effective evaluation can be a complex and sometimes daunting process. It is the desire of the organization to provide guidance that eases the burdens associated with pursuit of these objectives. This document draws heavily upon longstanding principles of systems engineering that have been developed and employed by SNL in the discipline of security since the 1970s. The scope of this document is constrained to the testing of system components and integration of data that is applicable within the context of PPS performance analysis using two tools that have been developed by SNL, PathTrace© and Scribe3D©. For guidance related to testing and evaluation more broadly, the manuals and reports referenced by this document can be consulted.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Oak Ridge Reservation Environmental Protection Rad Neshaps Radionuclide Inventory Web Database and Rad Neshaps Source and Dose Database

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency promulgated national emission standards for emissions of radionuclides other than radon from US Department of Energy facilities in Chapter 40 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 61, Subpart H. This regulatory standard limits the annual effective dose that any member of the public can receive from Department of Energy facilities to 0.1 mSv. As defined in the preamble of the final rule, all of the facilities on the Oak Ridge Reservation, i.e., the Y–12 National Security Complex, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, East Tennessee Technology Park, and any other U.S. Department of Energy operations on Oak Ridge Reservation, combined, must meet the annual dose limit of 0.1 mSv. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory, there are monitored sources and numerous unmonitored sources. To maintain radiological source and inventory information for these unmonitored sources, e.g., laboratory hoods, equipment exhausts, and room exhausts not currently venting to monitored stacks on the Oak Ridge National Laboratory campus, the Environmental Protection Rad NESHAPs Inventory Web Database was developed. This database is updated annually and is used to compile emissions data for the annual Radionuclide National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (Rad NESHAPs) report required by 40 CFR 61.94. It also provides supporting documentation for facility compliance audits. In addition, a Rad NESHAPs source and dose database was developed to import the source and dose summary data from Clean Air Act Assessment Package—1988 computer model files. As a result, this database provides Oak Ridge Reservation and facility-specific source inventory; doses associated with each source and facility; and total doses for the Oak Ridge Reservation dose.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Request for Information: Access to Quantum Systems

Quantum science and technology is a focal point of research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Quantum-coherent devices offer the potential for unprecedented precision in sensing and the ability to directly simulate complex quantum phenomena that have no known efficient classical algorithms. Thus, development and implementation of quantum technologies is expected to have a significant impact on our ability to address some of the most complex national security problems. LLNL maintains projects involving a broad spectrum of Quantum Information Science (QIS) research activities including investigating sources of decoherence, the 3DQ microscope, studies into quantum interconnects, 3-D printed ion traps, fusion energy and nuclear physics simulations, modeling for data-starved environments, and quantum sensing, including accelerometry and timing.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

An evaluation of risks associated with relying on Fortran for mission critical codes for the next 15 years

This document examines risks associated with relying on Fortran for codes critical to nuclear security into the late 2030s. The study was requested by the LANL ASC program office to support its decisions. To date, much of the discussion about the prospects for Fortran has tended to be informal and centered on questions (such as, “will the language be around in 20 years”) that are impossible to answer with any certainty. By focusing on estimates of the likelihood associated with different outcomes, rather than on specific predictions, we hope to clarify points of disagreement within the community and strengthen the analytic basis for reasoning about the future.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Real-Time Protocol Engineering with the B Language

It is an invariant that critical cyberphysical systems should not fail. Mission assurance requires systems to behave with predictability, especially in their ability to satisfy real-time constraints. The NIST standard for Engineering Trustworthy Secure Systems, National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Special Publication (SP) 800-160v1r1 states that formal methods are the highest level for meeting assurance requirements. There is a tension between the formal method software development process (Figure 1), which does not introduce time specificity until the latter stages of the development process (concrete model), and the need to gain confidence that time constraints will be satisfied. This paper formalizes the practical application of temporal entities e.g. Propositional Temporal Logic (PTL), Temporal Logic of Actions Plus (TLA+), etc. to critical systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

S&TR December 2024 El Capitan issue

At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, we focus on science and technology research to ensure our nation’s security. We also apply that expertise to solve other important national problems in energy, bioscience, and the environment. Science & Technology Review is published eight times a year to communicate, to a broad audience, the Laboratory’s scientific and technological accomplishments in fulfilling its primary missions. The publication’s goal is to help readers understand these accomplishments and appreciate their value to the individual citizen, the nation, and the world.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Artificial Intelligence for (AI) Nuclear Security: Expert Perspectives on AI Priorities for the Office of International Nuclear Security

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to transform nuclear security operations, offering opportunities to enhance effectiveness while simultaneously introducing new challenges. As AI technologies rapidly evolve, agencies across the United States Government (USG) are researching, implementing, and evaluating various AI models and systems. Given the broad capabilities and applications of these technologies, it is essential for each agency to identify and articulate those areas where it can make meaningful contributions aligned with its mission and expertise. To address this need for strategic focus, in late Fiscal Year 2025 (FY2025), the Office of International Nuclear Security (INS) established an AI Task Force (AITF) to gather input from subject matter experts (SMEs) regarding the most appropriate role INS could serve in researching, evaluating, or implementing AI for nuclear security. The AITF engaged 15 experts from national laboratories with backgrounds in cyber security, physical security, transport security, insider threat mitigation, nuclear engineering, human-systems engineering, and AI/ML development. This white paper summarizes the insights gathered from these SMEs and presents a potential roadmap for INS engagement with AI technologies. The recommendations outlined here are intended to inform INS leadership as they make strategic decisions about resource allocation and program direction in this rapidly evolving technological domain.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Flow Trajectories in Friction Stir Welding

In the Friction Stir Welding (FSW) process, a rotating, shouldered tool with a threaded pin is inserted under pressure along the seam of two pieces of metal which are tightly clamped together, and secured against a rigid anvil underneath. The rotating pin travels along the seam and through a combination of pressure and friction heating produces a zone of plastic deformation around the pin within the workpiece on either side of the seam. As the pin is moved in the direction of welding, the plasticised material moves around the tool and bonds together behind it. The elements of the material flow behavior are a combination of three elements. There is a rotational transport of material being carried around the tool, extrusion of material being forced around the pin on both sides into the cavity created behind it, and a lifting and dropping of material as it is stirred and mixed by the rotating action of the pin. It was assumed that rotational motion of the plastic zone is the primary mechanism for transport of material around the welding tool. A kinematic mathematical model was used to compute trajectories of material movement for various distributions of rotational slip within the plastic zone. These trajectories were then compared with the results of an experiment that produced radiographs of markers embedded in a workpiece that was welded with the FSW process. It was assumed that the copper wire markers retained their original length as the aluminum material flowed around them. The kinematic model included a constraint so that the displacements were such that the total length of the wire markers did not increase after deformation. There was good agreement between the calculated trajectories for the case of localized slip at the outer surface of the plastic deformation zone and the radiographs of the copper wire markers. The trajectories differed markedly from the radiograph traces when a distributed slip zone was assumed. It was concluded that the flow field could be described generally by a rotating plug model with slip occurring on the surface at the outer boundary of the plastic zone.

Bernstein, Edward L.↗

Lessons Learned from OSIRIS-Rex Autonomous Navigation Using Natural Feature Tracking

The Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, Security-Regolith Explorer (Osiris-REx) spacecraft is scheduled to launch in September, 2016 to embark on an asteroid sample return mission. It is expected to rendezvous with the asteroid, Bennu, navigate to the surface, collect a sample (July 20), and return the sample to Earth (September 23). The original mission design called for using one of two Flash Lidar units to provide autonomous navigation to the surface. Following Preliminary design and initial development of the Lidars, reliability issues with the hardware and test program prompted the project to begin development of an alternative navigation technique to be used as a backup to the Lidar. At the critical design review, Natural Feature Tracking (NFT) was added to the mission. NFT is an onboard optical navigation system that compares observed images to a set of asteroid terrain models which are rendered in real-time from a catalog stored in memory on the flight computer. Onboard knowledge of the spacecraft state is then updated by a Kalman filter using the measured residuals between the rendered reference images and the actual observed images. The asteroid terrain models used by NFT are built from a shape model generated from observations collected during earlier phases of the mission and include both terrain shape and albedo information about the asteroid surface. As a result, the success of NFT is highly dependent on selecting a set of topographic features that can be both identified during descent as well as reliably rendered using the shape model data available. During development, the OSIRIS-REx team faced significant challenges in developing a process conducive to robust operation. This was especially true for terrain models to be used as the spacecraft gets close to the asteroid and higher fidelity models are required for reliable image correlation. This paper will present some of the challenges and lessons learned from the development of the NFT system which includes not just the flight hardware and software but the development of the terrain models used to generate the onboard rendered images.

Navigation↗

Diversity for Microelectronics Lifecycle Security

In this work we examine approaches for using implementation diversity to disrupt or disable hardware trojans. We explore a variety of general frameworks for building diverse variants of circuits in voting architectures, and examine the impact of these on attackers and defenders mathematically and empirically. This work is augmented by analysis of a new majority voting technique. We also describe several automated approaches for generating diverse variants of a circuit and empirically study the overheads associated with these. We then describe a general technique for targeting functional circuit modifications to hardware trojans, present several specific implementations of this technique, and study the impact that they have on trojanized benchmark circuits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Science &Technology Review October/November 2018

At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, we focus on science and technology research to ensure our nation’s security. We also apply that expertise to solve other important national problems in energy, bioscience, and the environment. Science & Technology Review is published eight times a year to communicate, to a broad audience, the Laboratory’s scientific and technological accomplishments in fulfilling its primary missions. The publication’s goal is to help readers understand these accomplishments and appreciate their value to the individual citizen, the nation, and the world.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Science & Technology Review March 2019

At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, we focus on science and technology research to ensure our nation’s security. We also apply that expertise to solve other important national problems in energy, bioscience, and the environment. Science & Technology Review is published eight times a year to communicate, to a broad audience, the Laboratory’s scientific and technological accomplishments in fulfilling its primary missions. The publication’s goal is to help readers understand these accomplishments and appreciate their value to the individual citizen, the nation, and the world.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Wireless Channel Characterization in the Airport Surface Environment

Given the anticipated increase in air traffic in the coming years, modernization of the National Airspace System (NAS) is a necessity. Part of this modernization effort will include updating current communication, navigation, and surveillance (CNS) systems to deal with the increased traffic as well as developing advanced CNS technologies for the systems. An example of such technology is the integrated CNS (ICNS) network being developed by the Advanced CNS Architecture and Systems Technology (ACAST) group for use in the airport surface environment. The ICNS network would be used to convey voice/data between users in a secure and reliable manner. The current surface system only supports voice and does so through an obsolete physical infrastructure. The old system is vulnerable to outages and costly to maintain. The proposed ICNS network will include a wireless radio link. To ensure optimal performance, a thorough and accurate characterization of the channel across which the link would operate is necessary. The channel is the path the signal takes from the transmitter to the receiver and is prone to various forms of interference. Channel characterization involves a combination of analysis, simulation, and measurement. My work this summer was divided into four tasks. The first task required compiling and reviewing reference material that dealt with the characterization and modeling of aeronautical channels. The second task involved developing a systematic approach that could be used to group airports into classes, e.g. small airfields, medium airports, large open airports, large cluttered airports, etc. The third task consisted of implementing computer simulations of existing channel models. The fourth task entailed measuring possible interference sources in the airport surface environment via a spectrum analyzer.

Neville, Joshua T.↗

CyTRICS™ Assessment Report: Whole Home Battery Applications

This report examines the software supply chain security posture of mobile applications developed for consumer whole-house battery and energy-management products. While these applications are not currently integrated with critical infrastructure, their growing role in connected energy domain spaces underscores the importance of understanding the external dependencies, permission structures, and runtime behaviors that could introduce systemic risk; particularly, if adoption expands into more critical environments.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Computational model for predicting the performance of fluid-powered longiudinal piston modules and motors.

A Matlab-based computational model line code has been developed for predicting the performance of fluid-powered longitudinal piston modules and motors. A system of equations has been developed based upon applying the conservation of mass to a control volume defined by a reciprocating piston. The method results in a differential equation that predicts the pressure gradient in the control volume as a function of rotor rotation angle. The model uses an integration scheme to predict the pressure state in the control volume. The orifice equation is used to predict the flowrate in and out of the control volume. From the resulting solution the torque and speed characteristics of the motor configuration can be predicted, optimized, or tailored for a specific requirement.SAND2019-13983 M Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Taylor, Michael↗

Tomographic Reconstruction of the Neutron Time-Energy Spectrum from a Dense Plasma Focus

A dense plasma focus (DPF) nuclear fusion device is an attractive pulsed neutron source in many applications, due to its relatively large neutron yield, produced in a short time duration. In order to design a DPF that generates neutrons within a specified time profile, or generates a neutron energy spectrum with specific properties, it is necessary to be able to characterize and model the results of the fusion process releasing the neutrons. The time-energy spectrum of fusion neutrons is an ideal quantity to use to validate multiphysics codes that simulate the pinch and fusion processes, because it is a quantity that requires the physics of each of the stages leading up to and ending in the fusion reaction to be simulated correctly. In particular, since DPF fusion neutrons are not monoenergetic -- and there can often be several fusion pinches creating neutrons -- a computer simulation matching high quality neutron spectrum measurements provides great confidence in the fidelity of the simulation. In order to make such a comparison, it is first necessary to have quality measurements from which to infer the spectrum. In this work we pose neutron spectroscopy as the classical tomographic inverse problem from neutron time of flight data at multiple distances, but enhanced by using an additional measurement of the time profile of the fusion pinch near its source and by using detector pairs set up in a geometry that allows for scatter background subtraction. The detector pairs enhance the quality of the time of flight measurements, and the additional constraint posed by the measured time profile allows for reconstructions discretized as finely as the time measurements and in energy as finely as 100 keV, without the problem being underdetermined. We present results from a Deuterium-fueled DPF at the U.S. Department of Energy's Nevada National Security Site and show that we can infer the time-energy spectrum from our measurements for both single and multi-pinch fusion reactions with equal fidelity.

Catenacci, Jared↗

Efficient packet forwarding using cyber-security aware policies

For balancing load, a forwarder can selectively direct data from the forwarder to a processor according to a loading parameter. The selective direction includes forwarding the data to the processor for processing, transforming and/or forwarding the data to another node, and dropping the data. The forwarder can also adjust the loading parameter based on, at least in part, feedback received from the processor. One or more processing elements can store values associated with one or more flows into a structure without locking the structure. The stored values can be used to determine how to direct the flows, e.g., whether to process a flow or to drop it. The structure can be used within an information channel providing feedback to a processor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

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