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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of Wilks’ One-sided Non-parametric Formula Against Analytical Parametric Methods

This paper will be presented to the "Sensitivity and Uncertainty Methods" subgroup of the "Mathematics and Computation Division" of the ANS Winter Symposium. Direct comparisons are made via simulation between the Wilks' non-parametric and Gaussian (parametric) methods which are applied in the SASQUATCH and SINDA-SAMPLE thermal-hydraulic codes, respectively, for the Advanced Test Reactor safety basis. The level of relative conservatism is quantified for the Wilks method and shown to be greater than the parametric method for an equivalent probability and confidence level.

95/95↗
DOE OSTI2017

Estimation of iodine nutrition and thyroid function status in late-gestation pregnant women in the United States: Development and application of a population-based pregnancy model

Previously, a deterministic biologically-based dose-response (BBDR) pregnancy model was developed to evaluate moderate thyroid axis disturbances with and without thyroid-active chemical exposure in a near-term pregnant woman and fetus. In the current study, the existing BBDR model was adapted to include a wider functional range of iodine nutrition, including more severe iodine deficiency conditions, and to incorporate empirically the effects of homeostatic mechanisms. The extended model was further developed into a population-based model and was constructed using a Monte Carlo-based probabilistic framework. In order to characterize total (T4) and free (fT4) thyroxine levels for a given iodine status at the population-level, the distribution of iodine intake for late-gestation pregnant women in the U.S was reconstructed using various reverse dosimetry methods and available biomonitoring data. The range of median (mean) iodine intake values resulting from three different methods of reverse dosimetry tested was 196.5–219.9 μg of iodine/day (228.2–392.9 μg of iodine/day). There was minimal variation in model-predicted maternal serum T4 and ft4 thyroxine levels from use of the three reconstructed distributions of iodine intake; the range of geometric mean for T4 and fT4, was 138–151.7 nmol/L and 7.9–8.7 pmol/L, respectively. The average value of the ratio of the 97.5th percentile to the 2.5th percentile equaled 3.1 and agreed well with similar estimates from recent observations in third-trimester pregnant women in the U.S. In addition, the reconstructed distributions of iodine intake allowed us to estimate nutrient inadequacy for late-gestation pregnant women in the U.S. via the probability approach. The prevalence of iodine inadequacy for third-trimester pregnant women in the U.S. was estimated to be between 21% and 44%. Taken together, the current work provides an improved tool for evaluating iodine nutritional status and the corresponding thyroid function status in pregnant women in the U.S. This model enables future assessments of the relevant risk of thyroid hormone level perturbations due to exposure to thyroid-active chemicals at the population-level. - Highlights: • A population-based thyroid function model for pregnant women was developed. • The model was used specifically study the late-gestation pregnant women in the U.S. • The prevalence of iodine inadequacy was estimated in the sub-population studied. • Developed model well predicts trimester-specific thyroid hormone reference ranges. • The model can be further used to study thyroid perturbations at a population level.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Locational Value of Distributed Energy Resources

This report focuses on potential DER benefits for distribution systems, primarily in their role as non-wires alternatives to defer, mitigate, or eliminate the need for some traditional system investments at locations where distribution capacity is insufficient to meet expected future needs. It describes approaches and tools to estimate the locational value of DERs. The report includes 24 case studies to illustrate how states and utilities are considering the locational value of DERs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global distribution, formation and fate of mineral‐associated soil organic matter under a changing climate: A trait‐based perspective

Abstract Soil organic matter (SOM) is the largest actively cycling reservoir of terrestrial carbon (C), and the majority of SOM in Earth's mineral soils (~65%) is mineral‐associated organic matter (MAOM). Thus, the formation and fate of MAOM can exert substantial influence on the global C cycle. To predict future changes to Earth's climate, it is critical to mechanistically understand the processes by which MAOM is formed and decomposed, and to accurately represent this process‐based understanding in biogeochemical and Earth system models. In this review, we use a trait‐based framework to synthesize the interacting roles of plants, soil micro‐organisms, and the mineral matrix in regulating MAOM formation and decomposition. Our proposed framework differentiates between plant and microbial traits that influence total OM inputs to the soil (‘feedstock traits’) versus traits that influence the proportion of OM inputs that are ultimately incorporated into MAOM (‘MAOM formation traits’). We discuss how these feedstock and MAOM formation traits may be altered by warming, altered precipitation and elevated carbon dioxide. At a planetary scale, these feedstock and MAOM formation traits help shape the distribution of MAOM across Earth's biomes, and modulate biome‐specific responses of MAOM to climate change. We leverage a global synthesis of MAOM measurements to provide estimates of the total amount of MAOM‐C globally (~840–1540 Pg C; 34%–51% of total terrestrial organic C), and its distribution across Earth's biomes. We show that MAOM‐C concentration is highest in temperate forests and grasslands, and lowest in shrublands and savannas. Grasslands and croplands have the highest proportion of soil organic carbon (SOC) in the MAOM fraction (i.e. the MAOM‐C:SOC ratio), while boreal forests and tundra have the lowest MAOM‐C:SOC ratio. Drawing on our trait framework, we then review experimental data and posit the effects of climate change on MAOM pools in different biomes. We conclude by discussing how MAOM is integrated into soil C models, and how feedstock and MAOM formation traits may be included in these models. We also summarize the projected fate of MAOM under climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) and discuss key model uncertainties. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Globally optimal interferometry with lossy twin Fock probes

Parity or quadratic spin (e.g., J z 2 ) readouts of a Mach–Zehnder (MZ) interferometer probed with a twin Fock (TF) input state allow saturating the optimal sensitivity attainable among all mode-separable states with a fixed total number of particles but only when the interferometer phase θ is near zero. When more general Dicke state probes are used, the parity readout saturates the quantum Fisher information (QFI) at θ = 0, whereas better-than-standard quantum limit performance of the J z 2 readout is restricted to an o ( N ) occupation imbalance. We show that a method of moments readout of two quadratic spin observables J z 2 and J + 2 + J − 2 is globally optimal for Dicke state probes; i.e., the error saturates the QFI for all θ . In the lossy setting, we derive the time-inhomogeneous Markov process describing the effect of particle loss on TF states, showing that the method of moments readout of four at-most-quadratic spin observables is sufficient for globally optimal estimation of θ when two or more particles are lost. The analysis culminates in a numerical calculation of the QFI matrix for distributed MZ interferometry on the four-mode state | N 4 , N 4 , N 4 , N 4 〉 and its lossy counterparts, showing that an advantage for the estimation of any linear function of the local MZ phases θ 1 and θ 2 (compared to independent probing of the MZ phases by two copies of | N 4 , N 4 〉 ) appears when more than one particle is lost.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Best Practices for Shielding Analyses of Activated Metals and Spent Resins from Reactor Operation

This report investigated best practices for performing shielding evaluations of Type B waste packages, as defined in 10 CFR Part 71 regulations on packaging and transportation of radioactive material, or packages for which the contents are not defined before loading and may include a broad range of nuclides, geometries, and non-fuel materials. The following non-fuel waste streams were analyzed: Activated metals from decommissioned commercial power reactors, including Type 304 stainless steel, reactor vessel steel, and Inconel, Control blades from boiling water reactors, Neutron-activated corrosion products on surfaces of activated metals, and Spent resins from power plant operations. Measured elemental compositions, including major constituents and impurities, for steel and Inconel samples from commercial power reactors were used in activation calculations to determine radionuclide inventories in activated metals. For a simplified cask model, 60 Co contribution to the total external package dose rate at 30 days after shutdown varied from approximately 60% to 95%, depending on the activated metal, initial cobalt impurity concentration in the metal, and the thickness of the overpack gamma shield. Its maximum contribution to the total external package dose rate of approximately 100% was reached within the time interval of 2 to 5 years after shutdown and was maintained for up to 45 to 60 years after shutdown, depending on material, initial cobalt impurity concentration, and shield thickness. Thereafter, the 60 Co contribution to external package dose rate decreased with increasing decay time. Cobalt-60 is primarily produced by neutron reactions with the cobalt impurity in steel and Inconel. Other important radionuclides in activated metals contributing to package external dose rate are radionuclides with relatively short decay times, including 51 Cr, 59 Fe, 58 Co, and 54 Mn. These radionuclides may be represented as an equivalent 60 Co activity/source because 60 Co gamma ray emissions are bounding in terms of source strength and energy to other important radionuclides identified in the analyzed activated metals. Approaches for modeling the neutron-activated corrosion products that may be attached to activated reactor components were analyzed in this report. It was demonstrated that a surface source is more conservative than a uniform volumetric source for the treatment of neutron-activated corrosion products with respect to external package dose rates. An analysis of the maximum radionuclide loadings reported on spent resins identified the radionuclides 137 Cs, 60 Co, 134 Cs, 65 Zn, and 58 Co as the primary contributors to external package dose rate. For a resin cooled for 3.08 years, the external package dose rate was entirely produced by the reported 137 Cs and 60 Co inventory. The neutron sources from actinides found on spent resins or activated metals produced negligible dose rates and may be ignored in dose rate analyses. Effects of idealized waste material, source geometry, and spatial material/source distributions on external package dose rates were determined based on dose rate results for a simplified cask model under normal conditions of transport. Type 304 stainless steel, zirconium, and aluminum with adjusted mass densities based on a maximum content weight were analyzed for material modeling effects on external package dose rate. These materials produced identical external package dose rates within the statistical uncertainties of the dose rate estimates. Among four different source geometry configurations with homogeneous material of different mass densities, uniform volumetric source distribution, and the same source strength, the geometry configuration with lowest mass density (i.e., minimum self-shielding effect among the four cases) was most conservative. Spatial source distributions that better represent localized peak 60 Co activity values were more conservative than a uniform volumetric source distribution, assuming the same weight and total source strength per package. The increase in external dose rate caused by localized source peaks can be as much as the ratio between source peak activity density to average activity density, depending on the location of the activated metal with peak activity density. Therefore, the shielding analysis may be simplified if localized peak activities and the average activity per package can be measured/determined and documented at the time of cask loading. For simplicity, external package dose rates may be determined based on average source activity and a uniform volumetric source distribution. The dose rate results from that calculation model multiplied by the ratio of peak activity density to average activity density will produce maximum dose rate values for conservative estimates.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sources of Conservatism in Making Corrective Action Decisions at the NNSS - 20477

During the course of closing nuclear testing release sites at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) under the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO) using the Risk-Based Corrective Action (RBCA) evaluation process, conservative assumptions and estimates were used in many phases of the work. These assumptions and estimates were agreed to during Data Quality Objective (DQO) meetings and published in the FFACO documents. However, the potential cumulative effect of these multiple sources of conservatism was not evaluated. The RBCA process ensures that corrective action decisions minimize the risk of making Type I errors (not applying corrective action to areas that exceed action levels) at the expense of making Type II errors (applying corrective action to areas that do not exceed action levels). Rather than fully characterizing the spatial distribution of contaminants throughout each site, the RBCA process uses a bounding methodology that conservatively estimates spatial boundaries beyond which contamination is not present that exceed corrective action levels. This process accepts that these boundaries may encompass areas that do not exceed corrective action levels and, therefore, may be somewhat larger than for fully characterized sites. This is justified at sites where the reduction in investigation costs are more than any potential increase in corrective action costs. To minimize the risk of making Type I errors, conservatism was used throughout the process. This study documents the many sources of conservatism used in the RBCA process. Conservatism was used in the RBCA process in determining potential receptors, determining action levels, collecting samples, converting sample results into receptor dose, and accounting for uncertainty. This provides decision-makers with a high level of confidence that unacceptable risk to receptors will not result from exposure to residual contamination outside the corrective action boundaries. However, it does not provide an estimate of the actual extent of areas exceeding action levels. This study provides an evaluation of the effects of compounding conservatism on RBCA process decisions. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

Advances in the computation of the Sjöstrand, Rossi, and Feynman distributions

This study illustrates recent computational advances in the application of the Sjöstrand (area), Rossi, and Feynman methods to estimate the effective multiplication factor of a subcritical system driven by an external neutron source. The methodologies introduced in this study have been validated with the experimental results from the KUKA facility of Japan by Monte Carlo (MCNP6 and MCNPX) and deterministic (ERANOS, VARIANT, and PARTISN) codes. When the assembly is driven by a pulsed neutron source generated by a particle accelerator and delayed neutrons are at equilibrium, the Sjöstrand method becomes extremely fast if the integral of the reaction rate from a single pulse is split into two parts. These two integrals distinguish between the neutron counts during and after the pulse period. To conclude, when the facility is driven by a spontaneous fission neutron source, the timestamps of the detector neutron counts can be obtained up to the nanosecond precision using MCNP6, which allows obtaining the Rossi and Feynman distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distribution Grid Modeling Using Smart Meter Data

The knowledge of distribution grid models, including topologies and line impedances, is essential for grid monitoring, control and protection. However, such information is often unavailable, incomplete or outdated. The increasing deployment of smart meters (SMs) provides a unique opportunity to tackle this issue. This paper proposes a two-stage framework for distribution grid modeling using SM data. In the first stage, the network topology is identified by reconstructing a weighted Laplacian matrix of distribution networks. In the second stage, a least absolute deviations (LAD) regression model is developed for estimating line impedance of a single branch based on the nonlinear (inverse) power flow model, wherein a conductor library is leveraged to narrow down the solution space. The LAD regression model is originally a mixed-integer nonlinear program whose continuous relaxation is still non-convex. Furthermore, we specially address its convex relaxation and discuss the exactness. The modified regression model is then embedded within a bottom-up sweep algorithm to achieve the identification across the network in a branch-wise manner. Numerical results on the IEEE 13-bus, 37-bus and 69-bus test feeders validate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2016

Multi-wavelength lens reconstruction of a Planck and Herschel-detected star-bursting galaxy

We present a source-plane reconstruction of a Herschel and Planck-detected gravitationally lensed dusty star-forming galaxy (DSFG) at z = 1.68 using Hubble, Submillimeter Array (SMA), and Keck observations. The background submillimeter galaxy (SMG) is strongly lensed by a foreground galaxy cluster at z = 0.997 and appears as an arc with a length of ∼15″ in the optical images. The continuum dust emission, as seen by SMA, is limited to a single knot within this arc. We present a lens model with source-plane reconstructions at several wavelengths to show the difference in magnification between the stars and dust, and highlight the importance of multi-wavelength lens models for studies involving lensed DSFGs. We estimate the physical properties of the galaxy by fitting the flux densities to model spectral energy distributions leading to a magnification-corrected star-formation rate (SFR) of 390 ± 60 M {sub ⊙} yr{sup −1} and a stellar mass of 1.1±0.4×10{sup 11} M{sub ⊙}. These values are consistent with high-redshift massive galaxies that have formed most of their stars already. The estimated gas-to-baryon fraction, molecular gas surface density, and SFR surface density have values of 0.43 ± 0.13, 350 ± 200 M{sub ⊙} pc{sup −2}, and ∼12±7 M {sub ⊙} yr{sup −1} kpc{sup −2}, respectively. The ratio of SFR surface density to molecular gas surface density puts this among the most star-forming systems, similar to other measured SMGs and local ULIRGs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Estimating the Contribution of Dynamical Ejecta in the Kilonova Associated with GW170817

The source of the gravitational-wave (GW) signal GW170817, very likely a binary neutron star merger, was also observed electromagnetically, providing the first multi-messenger observations of this type. The two-week-long electromagnetic (EM) counterpart had a signature indicative of an r-process-induced optical transient known as a kilonova. This Letter examines how the mass of the dynamical ejecta can be estimated without a direct electromagnetic observation of the kilonova, using GW measurements and a phenomenological model calibrated to numerical simulations of mergers with dynamical ejecta. Specifically, we apply the model to the binary masses inferred from the GW measurements, and use the resulting mass of the dynamical ejecta to estimate its contribution (without the effects of wind ejecta) to the corresponding kilonova light curves from various models. The distributions of dynamical ejecta mass range between ${M}_{\mathrm{ej}}={10}^{-3}-{10}^{-2}\,{M}_{\odot }$ for various equations of state, assuming that the neutron stars are rotating slowly. In addition, we use our estimates of the dynamical ejecta mass and the neutron star merger rates inferred from GW170817 to constrain the contribution of events like this to the r-process element abundance in the Galaxy when ejecta mass from post-merger winds is neglected. We find that if ≳10% of the matter dynamically ejected from binary neutron star (BNS) mergers is converted to r-process elements, GW170817-like BNS mergers could fully account for the amount of r-process material observed in the Milky Way.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Star-forming Filament Models

New models of star-forming filamentary clouds are presented in order to quantify their properties and to predict their evolution. These 2D axisymmetric models describe filaments that have no core, one low-mass core, and one cluster-forming core. They are based on Plummer-like cylinders and spheroids that are bounded by a constant-density surface of finite extent. In contrast to 1D Plummer-like models, they have specific values of length and mass, they approximate observed column density maps, and their distributions of column density ( N -pdfs) are pole-free. Each model can estimate the star-forming potential of a core-filament system by identifying the zone of gas dense enough to form low-mass stars and by counting the number of enclosed thermal Jeans masses. This analysis suggests that the Musca central filament may be near the start of its star-forming life, with enough dense gas to make its first ∼3 protostars, while the Coronet filament is near the midpoint of its star formation, with enough dense gas to add ∼8 protostars to its ∼20 known stars. In contrast, L43 appears to be near the end of its star-forming life, since it lacks enough dense gas to add any new protostars to the two young stellar objectsalready known.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geothermal play fairway analysis, part 1: Example from the Snake River Plain, Idaho

The Snake River Plain (SRP) volcanic province overlies the track of the Yellowstone hotspot, a thermal anomaly that extends deep into the mantle. Most of the area is underlain by a basaltic volcanic province that overlies a mid-crustal intrusive complex, which in turn provides the long-term heat flux needed to sustain geothermal systems. Previous studies have identified several known geothermal resource areas within the SRP. For the geothermal study presented herein, our goals were to: (1) adapt the methodology of Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) for geothermal exploration to create a formal basis for its application to geothermal systems, (2) assemble relevant data for the SRP from publicly available and private sources, and (3) build a geothermal PFA model for the SRP and identify the most promising plays, using GIS-based software tools that are standard in the petroleum industry. The study focused on identifying three critical resource parameters for exploitable hydrothermal systems in the SRP: heat source, reservoir and recharge permeability, and cap or seal. Data included in the compilation for heat source were heat flow, distribution and ages of volcanic vents, groundwater temperatures, thermal springs and wells, helium isotope anomalies, and reservoir temperatures estimated using geothermometry. Reservoir and recharge permeability was inferred from the analysis of stress orientations and magnitudes, post-Miocene faults, and subsurface structural lineaments based on magnetics and gravity data. Data for cap or seal included the distribution of impermeable lake sediments and clay-seal associated with hydrothermal alteration below the regional aquifer. These data were used to compile Common Risk Segment maps for heat, permeability, and seal, which were combined to create a Composite Common Risk Segment map for all southern Idaho that reflects the risk associated with geothermal resource exploration and identifies favorable resource tracks. Our regional assessment indicated that undiscovered geothermal resources may be located in several areas of the SRP. Two of these areas, the western SRP and Camas Prairie, were selected for more detailed assessment, during which heat, permeability, and seal were evaluated using newly collected field data and smaller grid parameters to refine the location of potential resources. These higher resolution assessments illustrate the flexibility of our approach over a range of scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Estimation of RTT and Loss Rate of Wide-Area Connections Using MPI Measurements

Scientific computations are expected to be increasingly distributed across wide-area networks, and the Message Passing Interface (MPI) has been shown to scale to support their communications over long distances. These computations should account for certain network parameters to ensure an effective execution, for example, by avoiding highly congested and long connections. The execution times of MPI basic operations reflect the connection parameters, including the Round Trip Time (RTT) and loss rate. We describe five machine leaning methods to estimate the connection RTT and loss rate using execution times of MPI basic operations. We utilize execution time measurements of MPI Sendrecv operations collected over emulated 10 Gbps connections with 0-366 ms round-trip times, wherein the longest connection spans the globe, under up to 20% periodic losses. These methods provide disparate, namely, linear and non-linear, and smooth and non-smooth, estimates of RTT and loss rate. Our results show that accurate estimates can be generated at low loss rates but they become inaccurate at loss rates 10% and higher. Overall, these results constitute a case study of the strengths and limitations of machine learning methods in inferring network-level parameters using application-level measurements.

Rao, Nageswara S.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Geometric Estimation of Multivariate Dependency

This paper proposes a geometric estimator of dependency between a pair of multivariate random variables. The proposed estimator of dependency is based on a randomly permuted geometric graph (the minimal spanning tree) over the two multivariate samples. This estimator converges to a quantity that we call the geometric mutual information (GMI), which is equivalent to the Henze–Penrose divergence. between the joint distribution of the multivariate samples and the product of the marginals. The GMI has many of the same properties as standard MI but can be estimated from empirical data without density estimation; making it scalable to large datasets. The proposed empirical estimator of GMI is simple to implement, involving the construction of an minimal spanning tree (MST) spanning over both the original data and a randomly permuted version of this data. We establish asymptotic convergence of the estimator and convergence rates of the bias and variance for smooth multivariate density functions belonging to a Hölder class. We demonstrate the advantages of our proposed geometric dependency estimator in a series of experiments.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2017

Distributed control system for parallel-connected DC boost converters

The disclosed invention is a distributed control system for operating a DC bus fed by disparate DC power sources that service a known or unknown load. The voltage sources vary in v-i characteristics and have time-varying, maximum supply capacities. Each source is connected to the bus via a boost converter, which may have different dynamic characteristics and power transfer capacities, but are controlled through PWM. The invention tracks the time-varying power sources and apportions their power contribution while maintaining the DC bus voltage within the specifications. A central digital controller solves the steady-state system for the optimal duty cycle settings that achieve a desired power supply apportionment scheme for a known or predictable DC load. A distributed networked control system is derived from the central system that utilizes communications among controllers to compute a shared estimate of the unknown time-varying load through shared bus current measurements and bus voltage measurements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Search for R-parity-violating supersymmetry in a final state containing leptons and many jets with the ATLAS experiment using $\sqrt{s}=13\hbox{TeV}$ proton–proton collision data

A search for R-parity-violating supersymmetry in final states characterized by high jet multiplicity, at least one isolated light lepton and either zero or at least three b-tagged jets is presented. The search uses 139fb –1 of $\sqrt{s}=13\hbox{TeV}$ proton–proton collision data collected by the ATLAS experiment during Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider. The results are interpreted in the context of R-parity-violating supersymmetry models that feature gluino production, top-squark production, or electroweakino production. The dominant sources of background are estimated using a data-driven model, based on observables at medium jet multiplicity, to predict the b-tagged jet multiplicity distribution at the higher jet multiplicities used in the search. Machine-learning techniques are used to reach sensitivity to electroweakino production, extending the data-driven background estimation to the shape of the machine-learning discriminant. No significant excess over the Standard Model expectation is observed and exclusion limits at the 95% confidence level are extracted, reaching as high as 2.4 TeV in gluino mass, 1.35 TeV in top-squark mass, and 320 (365) GeV in higgsino (wino) mass.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Age of Evapotranspiration: Lower‐Bound Constraints From Distributed Water Fluxes Across the Continental United States

Abstract Unlike streamflow, which can be sampled in aggregate at the catchment outlet, evapotranspiration (ET) is spatially dispersed, challenging large‐scale age estimation. Here, we introduce an approach for constraining the age of ET via mass balance and present the minimum flux‐weighted age of ET across the continental United States using distributed, publicly available water flux data sets. The lower‐bound constraint on ET age can be calculated by assuming that ET is preferentially sourced from the most recent precipitation through a last‐in, first‐out algorithm. From 2012 to 2017, ET was at least several months old across large areas of the western continental United States, including in Mediterranean and (semi‐)arid climate zones and shrub and evergreen needleleaf plant communities. The primary limitation of this approach is that it provides only a minimum flux‐weighted average age to satisfy the mass balance of outgoing fluxes; true ET fluxes are composed of distributions of ages and may be composed of much older water. The primary advantage of the approach is that flux time series of precipitation and ET are sufficient to constrain ET age, and model parameterization is unnecessary. ET ages can be used to validate tracer‐aided and modeling approaches and inform studies of biogeochemistry, water‐rock interactions, and plant water sourcing under drought.

Hahm, W. J.↗

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