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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The Deep Soil Organic Carbon Response to Global Change

Over 70% of soil organic carbon (SOC) is stored at a depth greater than 20 cm belowground. A portion of this deep SOC actively cycles on annual to decadal timescales and is sensitive to global change. However, deep SOC responses to global change likely differ from surface SOC responses because biotic controls on SOC cycling become weaker as mineral controls predominate with depth. Here, we synthesize the current information on deep SOC responses to the global change drivers of warming, shifting precipitation, elevated CO 2 , and land use and land cover change. Most deep SOC responses can only be hypothesized because few global change studies measure deep soils, and even fewer global change experiments manipulate deep soils. We call on scientists to incorporate deep soils into their manipulations, measurements, and models so that the response of deep SOC can be accounted for in projections of nature-based climate solutions and terrestrial feedbacks to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

In Situ TEM Multi-Beam Ion Irradiation as a Technique for Elucidating Synergistic Radiation Effects

Materials designed for nuclear reactors undergo microstructural changes resulting from a combination of several environmental factors, including neutron irradiation damage, gas accumulation and elevated temperatures. Typical ion beam irradiation experiments designed for simulating a neutron irradiation environment involve irradiating the sample with a single ion beam and subsequent characterization of the resulting microstructure, often by transmission electron microscopy (TEM). This method does not allow for examination of microstructural effects due to simultaneous gas accumulation and displacement cascade damage, which occurs in a reactor. Sandia’s in situ ion irradiation TEM (I3TEM) offers the unique ability to observe microstructural changes due to irradiation damage caused by concurrent multi-beam ion irradiation in real time. This allows for time-dependent microstructure analysis. A plethora of additional in situ stages can be coupled with these experiments, e.g., for more accurately simulating defect kinetics at elevated reactor temperatures. This work outlines experiments showing synergistic effects in Au using in situ ion irradiation with various combinations of helium, deuterium and Au ions, as well as some initial work on materials utilized in tritium-producing burnable absorber rods (TPBARs): zirconium alloys and LiAlO2.

Taylor, Caitlin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Co-regulation of water and energy in the spatial heterogeneity of drought resistance and resilience

Vegetation resistance and resilience to drought are linked to the stability of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. However, the factors driving the spatial heterogeneity in drought resistance and resilience remain poorly understood. In the study, we utilized multiple satellite-derived vegetation indices to calculate and analyze changes in drought resistance and resilience across various biomes worldwide. Results indicated that drought resistance showed a significant increase with the increase in water availability, but no significant relationship was observed between drought resistance and energy. In contrast, drought resilience exhibited a significant increase with an increase in energy rather than in water. Furthermore, a negative correlation was observed between drought resistance and resilience across different biomes worldwide, indicating a trade-off between resistance and resilience. However, the strength of the negative correlation varied based on water and energy conditions. These findings provide compelling evidence that water and energy co-regulated the spatial heterogeneity in drought resistance and resilience across the globe. The robust linear relationship between drought resistance and resilience and available water and energy demonstrated in our study is critical to accurately predicting and assessing the impact of climate change on vegetation growth and terrestrial carbon cycling in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

How will future climate change impact prescribed fire across the contiguous United States?

As of 2023, the use of prescribed fire to manage ecosystems accounts for more than 50% of area burned annually across the United States. Prescribed fire is carried out when meteorological conditions, including temperature, humidity, and wind speed are appropriate for its safe and effective application. However, changes in these meteorological variables associated with future climate change may impact future opportunities to conduct prescribed fire. In this study, we combine climate projections with information on prescribed burning windows for ecoregions across the contiguous United States (CONUS) to compute the number of days when meteorological conditions allow for the safe and effective application of prescribed fire under present-day (2006–2015) and future climate (2051–2060) conditions. The resulting projections, which cover 57% of all vegetated area across the CONUS, indicate fewer days with conditions suitable for prescribed burning across ecoregions of the eastern United States due to rising maximum daily temperatures, but opportunities increase in the northern and northwestern United States, driven primarily by rising minimum temperatures and declining wind speeds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Increasing sensitivity of dryland vegetation greenness to precipitation due to rising atmospheric CO 2

Water availability plays a critical role in shaping terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in low- and mid-latitude regions. The sensitivity of vegetation growth to precipitation strongly regulates global vegetation dynamics and their responses to drought, yet sensitivity changes in response to climate change remain poorly understood. Here we use long-term satellite observations combined with a dynamic statistical learning approach to examine changes in the sensitivity of vegetation greenness to precipitation over the past four decades. We observe a robust increase in precipitation sensitivity (0.624% yr –1 ) for drylands, and a decrease (–0.618% yr –1 ) for wet regions. Using model simulations, we show that the contrasting trends between dry and wet regions are caused by elevated atmospheric CO 2 (eCO 2 ). eCO 2 universally decreases the precipitation sensitivity by reducing leaf-level transpiration, particularly in wet regions. However, in drylands, this leaf-level transpiration reduction is overridden at the canopy scale by a large proportional increase in leaf area. The increased sensitivity for global drylands implies a potential decrease in ecosystem stability and greater impacts of droughts in these vulnerable ecosystems under continued global change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advocating Feedback Control for Human-Earth System Applications

This paper proposes a feedback control perspective for Human-Earth Systems (HESs) which essentially are complex systems that capture the interactions between humans and nature. Recent attention in HES research has been directed towards devising strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation, aimed at achieving environmental and societal objectives. However, existing approaches heavily rely on HES models, which inherently suffer from inaccuracies due to the complexity of the system. Moreover, overly detailed models often prove impractical for optimization tasks. We propose a framework inheriting from feedback control strategies the robustness against model errors, because inaccuracies are mitigated using measurements retrieved from the field. The framework comprises two nested control loops. The outer loop computes the optimal inputs to the HES, which are then implemented by actuators controlled in the inner loop. Potential fields of applications are also identified and a numerical example is provided.

biological system modeling↗
DOE OSTI2016

The Geocybernetic Assessment Matrix (GAM) — A new assessment tool for evaluating the level and nature of sustainability or unsustainability

Evaluating sustainability from EIA-based assessments has been problematic at best. This is due to the use of reductionist and qualitative approaches which is dependent upon the perspective of the assessor(s). Therefore, a more rigorous and holistic approach is required to evaluate sustainability in a more consistent way. In this paper, a matrix-based methodology in order to assess the indicated level and nature of sustainability for any project, policy, indicators, legislation, regulation, or other framework is described. The Geocybernetic Assessment Matrix (GAM) is designed to evaluate the level and nature of sustainability or unsustainability occurring in respect the fundamental and complex geocybernetic paradigms. The GAM method is described in detail in respect to the theory behind it and the methodology. The GAM is then demonstrated using an appropriate case study — Part 1 of the UK Climate Change Act (2008) concerning carbon budgets and targets. The results indicate that the Part 1 of Act may not achieve the desired goals in contributing towards sustainable development through the stated mechanisms for carbon budgets and targets. The paper then discusses the broader context of the GAM with respect to the core themes evident in the development and application of the GAM of: sustainability science; sustainability assessment; application value of the GAM; and future research and development. - Highlights: • A new assessment tool called the Geocybernetic Assessment Matrix (GAM) described. • GAM evaluates the level and nature of sustainability or unsustainability. • GAM demonstrated by application to Part 1 of the UK Climate Change Act (CCA). • Part 1 of CCA has significant flaws in achieving a sustainable pathway. • GAM offers a potentially useful tool for quantitatively evaluating sustainability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes

Variability in hydroclimate impacts natural and human systems worldwide. In particular, both decadal variability and extreme precipitation events have substantial effects and are anticipated to be strongly influenced by climate change. From a practical perspective, these impacts will be felt relative to the continuously evolving background climate. Removing the underlying forced trend is therefore necessary to assess the relative impacts, but to date, the small size of most climate model ensembles has made it difficult to do this. Here we use an archive of large ensembles run under a high-emissions scenario to determine how decadal “megadrought” and “megapluvial” events—and shorter-term precipitation extremes—will vary relative to that changing baseline. When the trend is retained, mean state changes dominate: In fact, soil moisture changes are so large in some regions that conditions that would be considered a megadrought or pluvial event today are projected to become average. Time-of-emergence calculations suggest that in some regions including Europe and western North America, this shift may have already taken place and could be imminent elsewhere: Emergence of drought/pluvial conditions occurs over 61% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) by 2080. Relative to the changing baseline, megadrought/megapluvial risk either will not change or is slightly reduced. However, the increased frequency and intensity of both extreme wet and dry precipitation events will likely present adaptation challenges beyond anything currently experienced. In many regions, resilience against future hazards will require adapting to an ever-changing “normal,” characterized by unprecedented aridification/wetting punctuated by more severe extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hantavirus is Associated With Open Developed Areas and Arid Climates, Highlighting Increased Risk in the Western United States

In the United States, hantaviruses can cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in humans, an acute respiratory illness with a high mortality rate. Most people contract HPS from exposure to infected rodent excrement. The interannual dynamics of hantavirus transmission are tied to both environmental and human-related factors, including changes in annual climate conditions, rodent populations, and the built environment in which humans are more likely to be exposed. Similar environmental conditions and socioeconomic factors also likely determine the long-term risk of hantavirus exposure. Here, we use ecological niche models and human cases of HPS in the U.S. from 1993 to 2022 to assess hantavirus risk using four socioeconomic variables, 17 land use variables, one variable of rodent richness, and seven climate variables to determine both the geographical locations of highest exposure risk and leading environmental predictors. We found that areas with higher relative risk tend to be where it is drier, higher social vulnerability, increased rodent richness, and more open to low levels of development—this largely mapped to the western U.S. We found evidence that fringe ecosystems may be important areas of hantavirus transmission, similar to other emerging diseases. Increased rodent richness was associated with increased hantavirus risk, warranting further investigation into how the abundance and community composition of rodents could impact long-term risk. These risk maps can help public health officials develop plans for mitigating hantavirus, especially for the most susceptible populations. They can also be used to further investigate regions estimated to be at high risk for hantavirus where disease cases have not been as common but may be underreported.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Changing Trends in Drought Patterns over the Northeastern United States Using Multiple Large Ensemble Datasets

Since the infamous extreme drought of the 1960s, the climate of the northeastern United States (NEUS) has generally trended toward warmer and wetter conditions. Nonetheless, there is mounting evidence that short-term droughts will continue to pose a significant risk for this region. To better explore the processes governing events such as these, climate models have adopted more complex representations of the fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice system; however, large uncertainties in future projections still persist, with internal variability necessitating large ensembles to understand trends in both rare and high-impact extreme events such as rapidly developing droughts (a term here that includes flash droughts developing on monthly scales). In this study, seven large ensemble (LE) models are employed to answer the outstanding question: How are the frequency and character of drought in the NEUS changing under a warming climate? We find that most LE models indicate the NEUS will experience a long-term wetting trend with more “extremely wet” months, but also more frequent short-term extreme droughts. These changes are associated with increasing precipitation, atmospheric water demand, and climate variability. We also conclude that discrepant trends in precipitation and evapotranspiration variability will lead to increasing anticorrelation of these variables, which is relevant to the intensification of rapidly developing drought, particularly in the spring season. These changes are associated with an increase in evapotranspiration from plants, brought by an earlier emergence of the growing season and denser vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Predicting the Response of Electricity Load to Climate Change

Our purpose is to develop a methodology to quantify the impact of climate change on electric loads in the United States. We perform simple linear regression, assisted by geospatial smoothing, on paired temperature and load time-series to estimate the heating- and coolinginduced sensitivity to temperature across 300 transmission zones and 16 seasonal and diurnal time periods. The estimated load sensitivities can be coupled with climate scenarios to quantify the potential impact of climate change on load, with a primary application being long-term electricity scenarios. The method allows regional and seasonal differences in climate and load response to be reflected in the electricity scenarios. While the immediate product of this analysis was designed to mesh with the spatial and temporal resolution of a specific electricity model to enable climate change scenarios and analysis with that model, we also propose that the process could be applied for other models and purposes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Environmentally improved CdTe photovoltaic recycling through novel technologies and facility location strategies

Abstract Photovoltaic waste is projected to reach up to 78 million tons across globally dispersed locations through 2050. Current recycling infrastructure is inadequate to process these waste volumes responsibly. This necessitates commercializing novel, environmentally advantageous photovoltaic recycling technologies that improve upon incumbent industrial operations. CdTe photovoltaic recycling is a promising candidate for improvements as 25,000 tons of spent modules are recycled worldwide annually. This paper evaluates the operational performance and compares six novel technologies, the incumbent technology used in industry and one technology which extends the incumbent process across ten environmental impact categories. The tradeoff between incurring a transportation burden (ship or road) to recycle in a large‐scale centralized facility with a higher operational efficiency and avoiding transportation by recycling in a small‐scale decentralized facility with a lower operational efficiency is evaluated. Thermal delamination to eliminate the ethylene vinyl acetate and separate the photovoltaic glass panels is preferable to the incumbent mechanical process across nine environmental impact categories and decreases the climate‐change impact of CdTe photovoltaic recycling by 23%. Bath and probe sonication are ineffective for delamination, and the use of organic solvents is more environmentally burdensome than the incumbent mechanical process. Centralized recycling with shipping is environmentally preferable than with road‐based transportation. For every 100‐km increase in road transportation from the decentralized to the centralized facility, the inventory requirement in the centralized facility should be 6% lower than the decentralized facility for centralized recycling to have a lower climate‐change impact than decentralized recycling. The corresponding value for shipping is 0.4%.

Ravikumar, Dwarakanath↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Model Future Typical Meteorological (fTMY) Weather Files for nearly every US County

Exploring climate-induced impacts on building energy consumption can provide valuable insights for sustainable energy planning and environmental management in the face of a changing climate. By utilizing future weather data statistically downscaled from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) General Circulation Models (GCMs) from 2020-2100, this paper presents a broadening industry-consensus approach for generating future Typical Meteorological Year (fTMY) weather files through a combination of statistical downscaling and high-performance computing that generalizes across decades, multiple locations for a region, and varying climate models. Furthermore, these fTMY files have been generated for 3,128 US counties for capturing potential weather on a 20-year basis.

Building↗
DOE OSTI2018

Fish energy budget under ocean warming and flame retardant exposure

Highlights: • Energy proportion spent for growth dominated the mode of energy allocation (56–68%). • Energy channelled for R was around 26%, followed by excretion (F: 4–16%; U: 2–3%). • Energy budget parameters were significantly affected by warming and BDE-209 exposure. • Higher levels occurred under warming conditions: for weight, protein, ash and RGR. • Higher levels occurred under both stressors: for FE, AER, RMR and K{sub 1}. Climate change and chemical contamination are global environmental threats of growing concern for the scientific community and regulatory authorities. Yet, the impacts and interactions of both stressors (particularly ocean warming and emerging chemical contaminants) on physiological responses of marine organisms remain unclear and still require further understanding. Within this context, the main goal of this study was to assess, for the first time, the effects of warming (+ 5 °C) and accumulation of a polybrominated diphenyl ether congener (BDE-209, brominated flame retardant) through dietary exposure on energy budget of the juvenile white seabream (Diplodus sargus). Specifically, growth (G), routine metabolism (R), excretion (faecal, F and nitrogenous losses, U) and food consumption (C) were calculated to obtain the energy budget. The results demonstrated that the energy proportion spent for G dominated the mode of the energy allocation of juvenile white seabream (56.0–67.8%), especially under the combined effect of warming plus BDE-209 exposure. Under all treatments, the energy channelled for R varied around 26% and a much smaller percentage was channelled for excretion (F: 4.3–16.0% and U: 2.3–3.3%). An opposite trend to G was observed to F, where the highest percentage (16.0 ± 0.9%) was found under control temperature and BDE-209 exposure via diet. In general, the parameters were significantly affected by increased temperature and flame retardant exposure, where higher levels occurred for: i) wet weight, relative growth rate, protein and ash contents under warming conditions, ii) only for O:N ratio under BDE-209 exposure via diet, and iii) for feed efficiency, ammonia excretion rate, routine metabolic rate and assimilation efficiency under the combination of both stressors. On the other hand, decreased viscerosomatic index was observed under warming and lower fat content was observed under the combined effect of both stressors. Overall, under future warming and chemical contamination conditions, fish energy budget was greatly affected, which may dictate negative cascading impacts at population and community levels. Further research combining other climate change stressors (e.g. acidification and hypoxia) and emerging chemical contaminants are needed to better understand and forecast such biological effects in a changing ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants

Federal hydropower plants account for approximately half of installed US conventional hydropower capacity, and are an important part of the national renewable energy portfolio. Utilizing the strong linear relationship between the US Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff and annual hydropower generation, a runoff-based assessment approach is introduced in this study to project changes in annual and regional hydropower generation in multiple power marketing areas. Future climate scenarios are developed with a series of global and regional climate models, and the model output is bias-corrected to be consistent with observed data for the recent past. Using this approach, the median decrease in annual generation at federal projects is projected to be less than –2 TWh, with an estimated ensemble uncertainty of ±9 TWh. Although these estimates are similar to the recently observed variability in annual hydropower generation, and may therefore appear to be manageable, significantly seasonal runoff changes are projected and it may pose significant challenges in water systems with higher limits on reservoir storage and operational flexibility. Lastly, future assessments will be improved by incorporating next-generation climate models, by closer examination of extreme events and longer-term change, and by addressing the interactions among hydropower and other water uses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

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