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NASA NTRS2021

Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of 2 the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment

The Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes the ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi-model ensembles. We show that AR statistics from a given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with the MERRA-2 reanalysis. In CMIP5/6 future simulations, most ARDTs project a global increase in AR frequency, counts, and sizes, especially along the western coastlines of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We find that the choice of ARDT is the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in projected AR frequency when compared with model choice. These results imply that new projects investigating future changes in ARs should explicitly consider ARDT uncertainty as a core part of the experimental design. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a type of weather pattern known to be important for moving water vapor from the warm, moist tropics to the cool, dry polar regions; when they reach midlatitudes in the winter time, they are commonly associated with heavy precipitation. Recent studies that assess the impacts of global climate change on ARs tend to agree that there will be more ARs in a warmer climate, and that ARs will tend to be more extreme. However, it has been increasingly recognized by the AR research community that these results may depend on the method used to identify ARs and the choice of climate model. This study reports results from a controlled experiment, involving an international research community, that aims to show how different AR identification methods and climate models might impact our scientific understanding of ARs in the future. This experiment shows that there will likely be more ARs in the future, and that ARs will generally have a larger spatial footprint. This experiment also shows that uncertainty in these results are large, with the uncertainty from AR identification methods outweighing that of climate models. Future efforts to better understand the physics of ARs may help us reduce this uncertainty.

T A OBrien↗

NASA NTRS2024

Trade Space Analyses: Balancing Crew and Mission Design Parameters

In 2020, the Associate Administrator for Human Exploration and Operations and the Agency’s Federated Board requested an assessment to develop a methodology for trade space analysis comparing crew size for Mars missions against mission design parameters. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) conducted an assessment to develop a methodology for systematic, repeatable trade space analysis for crew size and developed an initial set of human performance models and a list of candidate crew tasks for NASA’s first mission to Mars. This report contains the results of the NESC assessment.

Humans to Mars↗

NASA NTRS2025

Trade Space Analyses: Balancing Crew and Mission Design Parameters-Candidate Mars Master Task List

Crew Duties and Tasks↗

NASA NTRS2026

Helicopter and Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Laboratory Comparison (HULC) Psychoacoustic Test

The Helicopter and Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Laboratory Comparison (HULC) psychoacoustic test was conducted in July 2025 to compare human annoyance responses to noise from UAM vehicles and helicopters. This document provides a literature review, describes the HULC test methodology including stimuli selection and test administration procedures, and presents results from an initial analysis using multilevel statistical modeling. The test utilized 123 sound stimuli from four helicopters and six UAM vehicles across three flight phases (departure, cruise, and approach), presented to 40 subjects in the Exterior Effects Room (EER) at NASA's Langley Research Center. Subjects rated their annoyance on a 0 to 10 scale while imagining hearing these sounds multiple times daily near their homes. Key findings revealed that, at the same A-weighted sound exposure levels, UAM vehicles and helicopters produced similar annoyance responses across all flight phases, with mean differences of only approximately 1 dB and overlapping confidence intervals. However, at equivalent observer distances, UAM vehicles had inherently quieter operations and lower mean annoyance ratings. These results suggest that UAM vehicles and helicopters may be assessed in a similar manner for community noise impact. The quieter noise characteristics of UAM vehicles may provide advantages for operating in communities and integrating into urban environments.

psychoacoustics↗

NASA NTRS2014

Expansion of the Real-time Sport-land Information System for NOAA / National Weather Service Situational Awareness and Local Modeling Applications

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, AL (Jedlovec 2013; Ralph et al. 2013; Merceret et al. 2013) is running a real-time configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework (hereafter referred to as the "SPoRT-LIS"). Output from the real-time SPoRT-LIS is used for (1) initializing land surface variables for local modeling applications, and (2) displaying in decision support systems for situational awareness and drought monitoring at select NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) partner offices. The SPoRT-LIS is currently run over a domain covering the southeastern half of the Continental United States (CONUS), with an additional experimental real-time run over the entire CONUS and surrounding portions of southern Canada and northern Mexico. The experimental CONUS run incorporates hourly quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) from the National Severe Storms Laboratory Multi- Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) product (Zhang et al. 2011, 2014), which will be transitioned into operations at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in Fall 2014. This paper describes the current and experimental SPoRT-LIS configurations, and documents some of the limitations still remaining through the advent of MRMS precipitation analyses in the SPoRT-LIS land surface model (LSM) simulations. Section 2 gives background information on the NASA LIS and describes the realtime SPoRT-LIS configurations being compared. Section 3 presents recent work done to develop a training module on situational awareness applications of real-time SPoRT-LIS output. Comparisons between output from the two SPoRT-LIS runs are shown in Section 4, including a documentation of issues encountered in using the MRMS precipitation dataset. A summary and future work in given in Section 5, followed by acknowledgements and references.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Expansion of the Real-Time SPoRT-Land Information System for NOAA/National Weather Service Situational Awareness and Local Modeling Applications

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, AL is running a real-time configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework (hereafter referred to as the "SPoRT-LIS"). Output from the real-time SPoRT-LIS is used for (1) initializing land surface variables for local modeling applications, and (2) displaying in decision support systems for situational awareness and drought monitoring at select NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) partner offices. The experimental CONUS run incorporates hourly quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) from the National Severe Storms Laboratory Multi- Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) which will be transitioned into operations at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in Fall 2014.This paper describes the current and experimental SPoRT-LIS configurations, and documents some of the limitations still remaining through the advent of MRMS precipitation analyses in the SPoRT-LIS land surface model (LSM) simulations.

Case, Jonathan L↗

NASA NTRS1991

The effects of rotation on initially anisotropic homogeneous flows

Rotation of initially anisotropic homogeneous flows is studied using a model spectral tensor. It is shown that the anisotropy changes because of the influence of rotation through phase scrambling. Phase scrambling causes the Reynolds stresses to develop with damped oscillations. The final Reynolds stress anisotropy is found to be proportional to the initial structural tensor anisotropy. Closure models for the rapid pressure strain terms should reflect this change in anisotropy, and should drive the anisotropy to reach its final predicted state. Finally, it is shown that long-time integration using direct numerical simulations should be treated with care because phase scrambling effects on a discrete wave space can cause loss of resolution when time becomes large.

Mansour, Nagi N.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Plasmasphere Empirical Modeling with the IMAGE Mission

Empirical models of plasmaspheric properties date from the pioneering work of Storey where he developed the analysis of ground whistler observations that lead to his estimate for the equatorial plasma density at L=3. The most recent in situ satellite study takes us to 1000 CRRES satellite passes and a statistical analysis of the plasmapause location at all local times and for varying geomagnetic conditions by Moldwin et al. These and many other studies over the intervening 49 years have given us a strong familiarity with the distribution of cold plasmaspheric ions throughout the magnetosphere. The major components of inner plasmasphere, nightside bulge, sunward convection tail, and plasmapause are all well established. Storm-time erosion and the resulting ionospheric refilling has been encompassed, even if not completely understood. Small-scale density variations near the plasmapause and extending at least to geosynchronous orbit have been characterized in a variety of ways, even though we do not yet understand their origin. This paper will present early empirical modeling results from the inversion of IMAGE/EW global intensity images to density distributions. Densities are obtained in this initial study through use of forward image modeling with a simple 3-parameter plasmaspheric and plasmapause mathematical model. Individual interior plasmaspheric density profiles and plasmapause locations are obtained every 10 degrees in magnetic local time for each E W image analyzed. Derived profile parameters are statistically characterized in the context of storm magnitude and evolution. Identified patterns in the appearance of plasmaspheric structures, plasmapause erosion, and refilling will be presented. Comparisons to existing empirical plasmaspheric models and the implications for new modeling will be presented. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Gallagher, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Theta-Pinch Thruster for Piloted Deep Space Exploration

A new high-power propulsion concept that combines a rapidly pulsed theta-pinch discharge with upstream particle reflection by a magnetic mirror was evaluated under a Phase 1 grant awarded through the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts. Analytic and numerical models were developed to predict the performance of a theta-pinch thruster operated over a wide range of initial gas pressures and discharge periods. The models indicate that a 1 m radius, 10 m long thruster operated with hydrogen propellant could provide impulse-bits ranging from 1 N-s to 330 N-s with specific impulse values of 7,500 s to 2,500 s, respectively. A pulsed magnetic field strength of 2 T is required to compress and heat the preionized hydrogen over a 10(exp -3) second discharge period, with about 60% of the heated plasma exiting the chamber each period to produce thrust. The unoptimized thruster efficiency is low, peaking at approximately 16% for an initial hydrogen chamber pressure of 100 Torr. The specific impulse and impulse-bit at this operating condition are 3,500 s and 90 N-s, respectively, and the required discharge energy is approximately 9x10(exp 6) J. For a pulse repetition rate of 10 Hz, the engine would produce an average thrust of 900 N at 3,500 s specific impulse. Combined with the electrodeless nature of the device, these performance parameters indicate that theta-pinch thrusters could provide unique, long-life propulsion systems for piloted deep space mission applications.

LaPointe, Mike R.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The muon content of gamma-ray showers

The result of a calculation of the expected number of muons in gamma ray initiated and cosmic ray initiated air showers using a realistic model of hadronic collisions in an effort to understand the available experimental results and to assess the feasibility of using the muon content of showers as a veto to reject cosmic ray initiated showers in ultra-high energy gamma ray astronomy are reported. The possibility of observing very-high energy gamma-ray sources by detecting narrow angle anisotropies in the high energy muon background radiation are considered.

Edwards, P. G.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Numerical Investigation of LO2 and LCH4 Storage Tanks on the Lunar Surface

Currently NASA is developing technologies to enable human exploration of the lunar surface for duration of up to 210 days. While trade studies are still underway, a cryogenic ascent stage using liquid oxygen (LO2) and liquid methane (LCH4) is being considered for the Altair lunar lander. For a representative Altair cryogenic ascent stage, we present a detailed storage analysis of the LO2 and LCH4 propellant tanks on the lunar surface for durations of up to 210 days. Both the LO2 and LCH4 propellant tanks are assumed to be pressurized with gaseous helium at launch. A two-phase lumped-vapor computational fluid dynamics model has been developed to account for the presence of a noncondensable gas in the ullage. The CFD model is used to simulate the initial pressure response of the propellant tanks while they are subjected to representative heat leak rates on the lunar surface. Once a near stationary state is achieved within the liquid phase, multizone model is used to extrapolate the solution farther in time. For fixed propellant mass and tank size, the long-term pressure response for different helium mass fractions in both the LO2 and LCH4 tanks is examined.

Moder, Jeff↗

NASA NTRS1997

Global Transport of Aerosol and CO: Initial 3-D Simulations of MAPS, TOMS, and AVHRR

Carbon monoxide concentrations and aerosol properties provide the tracers of global tropospheric perturbation by humankind that are most easily observed from satellite platforms. Aircraft field observations are additionally needed for us to simulate and understand the patterns observed. We report on our accumulating experience in making detailed, situation-specific, 3-D simulations of these tropospheric constituents as observed from the MAPS CO sensor, the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) aerosol scattering data, and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) absorbing-aerosol information. We have found a strong complimentarity of satellite and aircraft data in this effort, and recommend modelers use: (1) satellite data to pose initial questions; (2) aircraft data for modelers' first detailed simulations; and (3) a return to satellite data for global generalization. This work provides one example. Our main tools are the MM5 numerical model for meteorological assimilation and GRACES, our NASA Ames tracer-chemistry model, which incorporates emissions estimates. We report on several six-week simulations of global biomass burning effects as observed in the MAPS October 1994 dataset, and show the usefulness of two aircraft datasets, the TRACE-A (1992) and PEM-Tropics missions of NASA's Global Tropospheric Experiment. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cloud Computing Option for Modeling the Debris Environment

NASA’s Digital Transformation Initiative aims to promote the agency’s adoption of current and evolving digital technologies. Through agency-wide collaboration with other NASA teams, the Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) has directed the Orbital Debris Program Office and the Meteoroid Environment Office to integrate cloud computing technologies in their publicly released software models: the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) and the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM). Decoupling the user interface from the backend processor was key for the software packages to run on a cloud computing framework. Benefits to this design include horizontal scaling of computing resources, user authentication and authorization, and automated deployment. Both models are hosted on a cloud computing platform supported by the NASA authorized IT security and compliance framework. This paper focuses on the new ORDEM web application, which includes the current features of the publicly released ORDEM software with an upgraded frontend design. The underlying ORDEM processor is run on a cloud container, allowing the user to run multiple spacecraft and telescope/radar mode simulations. Featuresexclusive to the ORDEM web application, such as importing multiple TLEs, auto-generated plotting, and the ability to check runtime progress are discussed. Comparisons between the current ORDEM software and the web application are summarized.

Andrew Vavrin↗

NASA NTRS2023

Cloud Computing Option for Modeling the Debris Environment

NASA’s Digital Transformation Initiative aims to promote the agency’s adoption of current and evolving digital technologies. Through agency-wide collaboration with other NASA teams, the Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) has directed the Orbital Debris Program Office and the Meteoroid Environment Office to integrate cloud computing technologies into their publicly released software models: the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) and the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM). Decoupling the user interface from the backend processor was key for the software packages to run on a cloud computing framework. Benefits to this design include horizontal scaling of computing resources, user authentication and authorization, and automated deployment. Both models are hosted on a cloud computing platform supported by the NASA authorized IT security and compliance framework. This paper focuses on the new ORDEM web application, which includes the current features of the publicly released ORDEM software with an upgraded frontend design, although parallels between ORDEM and MEM are also discussed. The underlying ORDEM processor is run on a cloud container, allowing the user to run multiple spacecraft and telescope/radar mode simulations. Features exclusive to the ORDEM web application, such as importing multiple TLEs, auto-generated plotting, and the ability to check runtime progress are discussed. Comparisons between the current ORDEM software and the web application are summarized.

Andrew Vavrin↗

NASA NTRS2006

MARSIS antenna flight deployment anomaly and resolution

This paper summarizes the resolution of an in flight anomaly that occurred during the deployment of the first of three MARSIS antenna booms. Characteristics of this deployment are described, along with a correlation to finite element models and measured spacecraft inertias, which allowed the intermediate state of the boom to be accurately determined. Based on this information, a spacecraft maneuver was performed that warmed the stalled hinge and led to the first boom successfully locking into its designed geometry. The confirmed partially deployed boom shape was then used to develop a thermal model of the stalled hinge both in its initial solar attitude and during the successful spacecraft maneuver. Results from the hinge thermal model and component level testing were evaluated in order to determine the root cause of the anomaly and the probability of its recurrence on subsequent deployments. These conclusions were then utilized in planning mitigating actions that were implemented during the remaining two boom deployments. Final flight data are presented for both dipole booms indicating a correctly deployed and healthy antenna. The monopole boom deployment was detected but the final state of the boom is unknown.

Mars↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Comparison of Approximation Modeling Techniques: Polynomial Versus Interpolating Models

Two methods of creating approximation models are compared through the calculation of the modeling accuracy on test problems involving one, five, and ten independent variables. Here, the test problems are representative of the modeling challenges typically encountered in realistic engineering optimization problems. The first approximation model is a quadratic polynomial created using the method of least squares. This type of polynomial model has seen considerable use in recent engineering optimization studies due to its computational simplicity and ease of use. However, quadratic polynomial models may be of limited accuracy when the response data to be modeled have multiple local extrema. The second approximation model employs an interpolation scheme known as kriging developed in the fields of spatial statistics and geostatistics. This class of interpolating model has the flexibility to model response data with multiple local extrema. However, this flexibility is obtained at an increase in computational expense and a decrease in ease of use. The intent of this study is to provide an initial exploration of the accuracy and modeling capabilities of these two approximation methods.

Giunta, Anthony A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

A Multi-Season Study of the Effects of MODIS Sea-Surface Temperatures on Operational WRF Forecasts at NWS Miami, FL

Studies at the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center have suggested that the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea-surface temperature (SST) composites in regional weather forecast models can have a significant positive impact on short-term numerical weather prediction in coastal regions. Recent work by LaCasse et al (2007, Monthly Weather Review) highlights lower atmospheric differences in regional numerical simulations over the Florida offshore waters using 2-km SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument aboard the polar-orbiting Aqua and Terra Earth Observing System satellites. To help quantify the value of this impact on NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), the SPORT Center and the NWS WFO at Miami, FL (MIA) are collaborating on a project to investigate the impact of using the high-resolution MODIS SST fields within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) prediction system. The project's goal is to determine whether more accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing within WRF will result in improved land/sea fluxes and hence, more accurate evolution of coastal mesoscale circulations and the associated sensible weather elements. The NWS MIA is currently running WRF in real-time to support daily forecast operations, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical core within the NWS Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Twenty-seven hour forecasts are run dally initialized at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC on a domain with 4-km grid spacing covering the southern half of Florida and adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Each model run is initialized using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) analyses available in AWIPS. The SSTs are initialized with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) analyses at 1/12deg resolution (approx.9 km); however, the RTG product does not exhibit fine-scale details consistent with its grid resolution. SPORT is conducting parallel WRF EMS runs identical to the operational runs at NWS MIA except for the use of MODIS SST composites in place of the RTG product as the initial and boundary conditions over water, The MODIS SST composites for initializing the SPORT WRF runs are generated on a 2-km grid four times daily at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, based on the times of the overhead passes of the Aqua and Terra satellites. The incorporation of the MODIS SST data into the SPORT WRF runs is staggered such that SSTs are updated with a new composite every six hours in each of the WRF runs. From mid-February to July 2007, over 500 parallel WRF simulations have been collected for analysis and verification. This paper will present verification results comparing the NWS MIA operational WRF runs to the SPORT experimental runs, and highlight any substantial differences noted in the predicted mesoscale phenomena for specific cases.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Data book for 12.5-inch diameter SRB thermal model water flotation test: 14.7 psia, series P020

Data acquired from the initial series of tests conducted to determine how thermal conditions affect SRB (Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster) flotation are presented. Acceleration, pressure, and temperature data recorded from initial water impact to final flotation position using a 12.5-inch diameter thermal model of the SRB at ambient pressure are included. The model was 136.9 inches long and weighed 117.3 lbm. The tests indicated the following differences from ambient temperature tests: (1) significant negative static pressures can occur during penetration; (2) maximum penetration is increased; and (3) final flotation is in the spar buoy mode.

Allums, S. L.↗

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