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Preparing for the Huygens Probe Mission, Cassini orbit determination results for the first and second targeted Titan encounters

Dynamic modeling of the spacecraft and Saturn system, tracking data, including radio-metric and optical navigation data, and measurement modeling associated with the final trajectory analysis are described. Navigation predictions produced during the operational phase are compared with the final trajectory in order to gain insight into navigation performance and maneuver execution errors. Special attention is given to refinement of the dynamical environment of Saturn, particularly Titan, during the first two orbits.

navigation↗

An Autonomous MCP Bridge to Rucio: Enhancing Data Management Accessibility for High Energy Physics

The Rucio Data Management System [1] is an important tool used by High Energy Physics experiments, including those at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, to store and manage exabyte-scale scientific datasets. Despite its central role in coordinating data across globally distributed storage sites, Rucio's command line interface (CLI) presents a steep learning curve, and makes it difficult for scientists to navigate through. To solve this issue, a containerized Model Context Protocol (MCP) [2] server was built that connects Large Language Models directly to Rucio, allowing AI agents to handle data tasks by using simple, natural language rather than memorized terminal commands. The core engineering focus of this project was moving the server away from slow terminal commands that require text parsing and replacing them with a native Python Client API toolset and a planned REST API framework. Moving to the Python API handles data operations directly in memory, which helps clear up formatting errors, provides the AI with clean, structured JSON data and speeds up tool execution. To prove that the system actually works, a benchmarking pipeline was also built with various questions to test the AI across four different model configurations. The questions included finding data scopes, tracking down specific datasets, and checking replication rules. Through benchmarking, early runs showed that with raw terminal text, the model would get confused and stuck, whereas switching to the Python API to feed the AI clean, structured data yielded massive improvement. By creating an intelligent and autonomous bridge to a storage network, this project shows how AI can be implemented in scientific data management, which ultimately helps scientists at Fermilab spend less time sorting through data and more time focusing on their experiments and analysis.

Akella, Kashyap [William Rainey Harper Coll.]↗

SU-E-J-44: A Novel Approach to Quantify Patient Setup and Target Motion for Real-Time Image-Guided Radiotherapy (IGRT)

Purpose Isocenter shifts and rotations to correct patient setup errors and organ motion cannot remedy some shape changes of large targets. We are investigating new methods in quantification of target deformation for realtime IGRT of breast and chest wall cancer. Methods Ninety-five patients of breast or chest wall cancer were accrued in an IRB-approved clinical trial of IGRT using 3D surface images acquired at daily setup and beam-on time via an in-room camera. Shifts and rotations relating to the planned reference surface were determined using iterative-closest-point alignment. Local surface displacements and target deformation are measured via a ray-surface intersection and principal component analysis (PCA) of external surface, respectively. Isocenter shift, upper-abdominal displacement, and vectors of the surface projected onto the two principal components, PC1 and PC2, were evaluated for sensitivity and accuracy in detection of target deformation. Setup errors for some deformed targets were estimated by superlatively registering target volume, inner surface, or external surface in weekly CBCT or these outlines on weekly EPI. Results Setup difference according to the inner-surface, external surface, or target volume could be 1.5 cm. Video surface-guided setup agreed with EPI results to within < 0.5 cm while CBCT results were sometimes (∼20%) different from that of EPI (>0.5 cm) due to target deformation for some large breasts and some chest walls undergoing deep-breath-hold irradiation. Square root of PC1 and PC2 is very sensitive to external surface deformation and irregular breathing. Conclusion PCA of external surfaces is quick and simple way to detect target deformation in IGRT of breast and chest wall cancer. Setup corrections based on the target volume, inner surface, and external surface could be significant different. Thus, checking of target shape changes is essential for accurate image-guided patient setup and motion tracking of large deformable targets. NIH grant for the first author as cionsultant and the last author as the PI.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Coordinated analyses of hydrated Kuiper Belt dust

We report on coordinated mineralogical, chemical, and isotopic analyses of hydrated carbon-rich interplanetary dust particles (IDPs). We focus on hydrated IDPs that contain high solar flare track densities consistent with an origin in outer Solar System bodies such as Edgeworth-Kuiper belt objects (EKBOs) [1]. We are searching for evidence of the heavy water reservoir predicted by self-shielding models [2]. The IDPs were embedded in sulfur and microtome thin sections were obtained for Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and nanoSIMS analyses. The IDPs were only partly microtomed and the remainder was extracted from the sulfur and pressed into In or Au for high precision O isotopic analyses. The hydrated IDPs in this study are compact low-porosity objects with a mineralogy dominated by fine-grained saponite and lesser serpentine, Fe-Ni sulfides, Mg-Fe carbonates, rare crystaline silicates, and abundant organic matter. The C in the IDPs is abundant (typically >4X CI) and occurs as isolated nanoglobules and finely disseminated within the phyllosilicate matrix of the IDPs. TEM analyses of the nanoglobules show O-rich, S-depleted rims with higher carbonyl functionality than their cores. FTIR spectra show strong aliphatic C-H stretches consistent with the presence of short-chain aliphatic hydrocarbons in these IDPs. The oxygen isotopic compositions measured in 6 IDPs all plot within error of the CCAM line [3]. For several of the IDPs we were able to obtain multiple analyses. The ∆^(17)O values range from -23‰ up to +3.4‰ with most analyses clustering above the terrestrial fractionation line. The O isotopic compositions and the high C contents of these IDPs are distinct from known hydrated carbonaceous chondrites. The track-rich hydrated IDPs record parent body aqueous alteration effects through interactions with 16O-poor H2O on a EKBO parent body. The aqueous alteration activity likely resulted from the heat generated by collisional processes among EKBOs given that these objects are believed to have accreted late after the decay of 26Al [4].

Lindsay P. Keller↗

SU-D-BRD-05: Online Framework for Plan Tracking and Automatic Checks in Radiation Therapy

Purpose: To develop an online framework that tracks a patient’s plan from initial simulation to treatment and that helps automate elements of the physics plan checks usually performed in the record and verify (RV) system and treatment planning system. Methods: We have developed PlanTracker, an online plan tracking system that automatically imports new patients tasks and follows it through treatment planning, physics checks, therapy check, and chart rounds. A survey was designed to collect information about the amount of time spent by medical physicists in non-physics related tasks. We then assessed these non-physics tasks for automation. Using these surveys, we directed our PlanTracker software development towards the automation of intra-plan physics review. We then conducted a systematic evaluation of PlanTracker’s accuracy by generating test plans in the RV system software designed to mimic real plans, in order to test its efficacy in catching errors both real and theoretical. Results: PlanTracker has proven to be an effective improvement to the clinical workflow in a radiotherapy clinic. We present data indicating that roughly 1/3 of the physics plan check can be automated, and the workflow optimized, and show the functionality of PlanTracker. When the full system is in clinical use we will present data on improvement of time use in comparison to survey data prior to PlanTracker implementation. Conclusion: We have developed a framework for plan tracking and automatic checks in radiation therapy. We anticipate using PlanTracker as a basis for further development in clinical/research software. We hope that by eliminating the most simple and time consuming checks, medical physicists may be able to spend their time on plan quality and other physics tasks rather than in arithmetic and logic checks. We see this development as part of a broader initiative to advance the clinical/research informatics infrastructure surrounding the radiotherapy clinic. This research project has been financially supported by Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, CA, through a Varian MRA.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Geoid undulation computations at laser tracking stations

Geoid undulation computations were performed at 29 laser stations distributed around the world using a combination of terrestrial gravity data within a cap of radius 2 deg and a potential coefficient set up to 180 deg. The traditional methods of Stokes' and Meissl's modification together with the Molodenskii method and the modified Sjoberg method were applied. Performing numerical tests based on global error assumptions regarding the terrestrial data and the geopotential set it was concluded that the modified Sjoberg method is the most accurate and promising technique for geoid undulation computations. The numerical computations for the geoid undulations using all the four methods resulted in agreement with the ellipsoidal minus orthometric value of the undulations on the order of 60 cm or better for most of the laser stations in the eastern United States, Australia, Japan, Bermuda, and Europe. A systematic discrepancy of about 2 meters for most of the western United States stations was detected and verified by using two relatively independent data sets. For oceanic laser stations in the western Atlantic and Pacific oceans that have no terrestrial data available, the adjusted GEOS-3 and SEASAT altimeter data were used for the computation of the geoid undulation in a collocation method.

Despotakis, Vasilios K.↗

A numerical comparison of precipitating turbulent flows between large‐eddy simulation and one‐dimensional turbulence

This study presents the results of computational fluid dynamics simulations of a multiphase, reacting, turbulent mixing layer in an idealized geometry. The purpose is to compare large‐eddy simulation (LES) to one‐dimensional turbulence (ODT) and examine the trends of the flow under differing mixing conditions. Aqueous streams are mixed together to precipitate polymorphs of calcium carbonate. The polymorphs of calcium carbonate are tracked numerically using population balance equations (PBE). Each PBE contains all of the relevant physical models to track the particle evolution including nucleation, growth, and aggregation. A simple subgrid mixing model that is convenient for use with PBEs was implemented in the LES code. The higher spatial resolution achievable with ODT allowed an investigation on the effect of resolution on the mixing‐model error. The Reynolds number of the flow is varied and is shown to cause a decrease in average particle sizes with higher mixing rates. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J , 61: 3185–3197, 2015

Abboud, Alex W.↗

Interactive Effects of Climate Change and Decomposer Communities on the Stabilization of Wood-Derived Carbon Pools: Catalyst for a New Study

Globally, forest soils store ~two-thirds as much carbon (C) as the atmosphere. Although wood makes up the majority of forest biomass, the importance of wood contributions to soil C pools is unknown. Even with recent advances in the mechanistic understanding of soil processes, integrative studies tracing C input pathways and biological fluxes within and from soils are lacking. Therefore, our research objectives were to assess the impact of different fungal decay pathways (i.e., white-rot versus brown-rot)—in interaction with wood quality, soil temperature, wood location (i.e., soil surface and buried in mineral soil), and soil texture—on the transformation of woody material into soil CO 2 efflux, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and soil C pools. The use of 13 C-depleted woody biomass harvested from the Rhinelander, WI free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (Aspen-FACE) experiment affords the unique opportunity to distinguish the wood-derived C from other soil C fluxes and pools. We established 168 treatment plots across six field sites (three sand and three loam textured soil). Treatment plots consisted of full-factorial design with the following treatments: 1. Wood chips from elevated CO 2 , elevated CO 2 + O 3 , or ambient atmosphere AspenFACE treatments; 2. Inoculated with white rot (Bjerkandera adusta) or brown rot (Gloeophyllum sepiarium) pure fungal cultures, or the original suite of endemic microbial community on the logs; and 3. Buried (15cm in soil as a proxy for coarse roots) or surface applied wood chips. We also created a warming treatment using open-topped, passive warming chambers on a subset of the above treatments. Control plots with no added wood (“no chip control”) were incorporated into the research design. Soils were sampled for initial δ 13 C values, CN concentrations, and bulk density. A subset of plots were instrumented with lysimeters for sampling soil water and temperature data loggers for measuring soil temperatures. To determine the early pathways of decomposition, we measured soil surface CO 2 efflux, dissolved organic C (DOC), and DO 13 C approximately monthly over two growing seasons from a subsample of the research plots. To determine the portion of soil surface CO 2 efflux attributable to wood-derived C, we used Keeling plot techniques to estimate the associated δ 13 C values of the soil CO 2 efflux. We measured the δ 13 CO 2 once during the peak of each growing season. Initial values for soil δ 13 C values and CN concentrations averaged across the six sites were -26.8‰ (standard error = 0.04), 2.46% (se = 0.11), and 0.15% (se = 0.01), respectively. The labeled wood chips from the Aspen FACE treatments had an average δ13C value of -39.5‰ (se 0.10). The >12 ‰ isotopic difference between the soil and wood chip δ 13 C values provides the basis for tracking the wood-derived C through the early stages of decomposition and subsequent storage in the soil. Across our six research sites, average soil surface CO 2 efflux ranged from 1.04 to 2.00 g CO 2 m -2 h -1 for the first two growing seasons. No wood chip controls had an average soil surface CO 2 efflux of 0.67 g CO 2 m -2 h -1 or about half of that of the wood chip treatment plots. Wood-derived CO 2 efflux was higher for loam textured soils relative to sands (0.70 and 0.54 g CO 2 m -2 h -1 , respectively; p = 0.045)), for surface relative to buried wood chip treatments (0.92 and 0.39 g CO 2 m -2 h -1 , respectively; p < 0.001), for warmed relative to ambient temperature treatments (0.99 and 0.78 g CO 2 m -2 h -1 , respectively; 0.004), and for natural rot relative to brown and white rots (0.93, 0.82, and 0.78 g CO 2 m -2 h -1 , respectively; p = 0.068). Our first two growing seasons of soil surface CO 2 efflux data show that wood chip location (i.e., surface vs. buried chip application) is very important, with surface chips loosing twice the wood-derived CO 2 . The DOC data support this trend for greater loss of ecosystem C from surface chips. This has strong implications for the importance of root and buried wood for ecosystem C retention. This strong chip location effect on wood-derived C loss was significantly modified by soil texture, soil temperature, decomposer communities, and wood quality as effected by potential future CO 2 and O 3 levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

C-band station coordinate determination for the GEOS-C altimeter calibration area

Dynamical orbital techniques were employed to estimate the center-of-mass station coordinates of six C-band radars located in the designated primary GEOS-C radar altimeter calibration area. This work was performed in support of the planned GEOS-C mission (December, 1974 launch). The sites included Bermuda, Grand Turk, Antigua, Wallops Island (Virginia), and Merritt Island (Florida). Two sites were estimated independently at Wallops Island yielding better than 40 cm relative height recovery, with better than 10 cm and 1 m (relative) recovery for phi and gamma respectively. Error analysis and comparisons with other investigators indicate that better than 2 m relative recovery was achieved at all sites. The data used were exclusively that from the estimated sites and included 18 orbital arcs which were less than two orbital revolutions in length, having successive tracks over the area. The techniques employed here, given their independence of global tracking support, can be effectively employed to improve various geodetic datums by providing very long and accurate baselines. The C-band data taken on GEOS-C should be employed to improve such geodetic datums as the European-1950 using similar techniques.

Krabill, W. B.↗

Evaluation of 2 cognitive abilities tests in a dual-task environment

Most real world operators are required to perform multiple tasks simultaneously. In some cases, such as flying a high performance aircraft or trouble shooting a failing nuclear power plant, the operator's ability to time share or process in parallel" can be driven to extremes. This has created interest in selection tests of cognitive abilities. Two tests that have been suggested are the Dichotic Listening Task and the Cognitive Failures Questionnaire. Correlations between these test results and time sharing performance were obtained and the validity of these tests were examined. The primary task was a tracking task with dynamically varying bandwidth. This was performed either alone or concurrently with either another tracking task or a spatial transformation task. The results were: (1) An unexpected negative correlation was detected between the two tests; (2) The lack of correlation between either test and task performance made the predictive utility of the tests scores appear questionable; (3) Pilots made more errors on the Dichotic Listening Task than college students.

Vidulich, M. A.↗

Multi-Window Controllers for Autonomous Space Systems

Multi-window controllers select between elementary linear controllers using nonlinear windows based on the amplitude and frequency content of the feedback error. The controllers are relatively simple to implement and perform much better than linear controllers. The commanders for such controllers only order the destination point and are freed from generating the command time-profiles. The robotic missions rely heavily on the tasks of acquisition and tracking. For autonomous and optimal control of the spacecraft, the control bandwidth must be larger while the feedback can (and, therefore, must) be reduced.. Combining linear compensators via multi-window nonlinear summer guarantees minimum phase character of the combined transfer function. It is shown that the solution may require using several parallel branches and windows. Several examples of multi-window nonlinear controller applications are presented.

Lurie, B, J.↗

Towards Realistic and High Fidelity Models for Nuclear Reactor Power Synthesis Simulation with Self-Powered Neutron Detectors

As presented in this report, a weighting function–based inferencing method is being applied to synthesize the power distribution in next-generation and university research reactors based on simulated self power neutron detector (SPND) responses. The overall goal is to assess the impacts of sensor uncertainty and true power distribution perturbations on the error in the synthesized power distribution. Regarding sensor uncertainty, the NuScale Small Modular Reactor (SMR) and the Westinghouse AP1000 serve as testbeds for analyzing the impact of varying the sensor uncertainty, as well as varying the number of sensors per sensor string in the reactor core. The reactor models are informed by Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) neutron flux tallies. For the NuScale SMR and Westinghouse AP1000, the SPND response functions (i.e., the response of the SPNDs to individual segments of fuel) were determined homogeneously. Regarding an analysis of power distribution perturbation detection, the Texas A&M Testing, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics Reactor (TAMU TRIGA) reactor was used as a demonstration case with one particular arrangement of SPNDs; the response functions for this reactor model were determined heterogeneously, making this a uniquely high-fidelity demonstration of perturbation detection. Finally, SPND models generated in the Geometry and Tracking 4 (Geant4) code have been generated and tested for comparison with traditionally implemented analytical SPND models, with the intent for Geant4 integration with the full methodological framework. SPND current outputs as a function of distance from some fuel assembly segment in the NuScale SMR are compared with the analytically determined currents. Results from the sensor uncertainty simulations for the NuScale SMR and AP1000 indicate that the average error in the inferred power distribution on the fuel assembly segment level is reasonably low, being slightly less than the random uncertainty applied to all respective SPNDs in both cores. For example, if all SPNDs in the core have a random uncertainty of 5%, then the corresponding fuel assembly segment level error (i.e. difference between the true and inferred local power) is ~2–3%. However, the maximum error in the inferred power distribution on the fuel assembly segment level can be considerably high (>15%) when SPND random uncertainties start to exceed ~3%. In general, the average and maximum errors in the inferred power distribution were slightly higher in the AP1000 as opposed to the NuScale SMR for the sensor string configurations considered herein. Another result determined from analysis of the sensor uncertainty simulations was that increasing the number of SPNDs per string does not clearly reduce inferred power distribution error and can in fact make the error large in some cases; however, this assessment may skewed due to imposed iteration limits. Results from the perturbation detection demonstration using the high-fidelity TAMU TRIGA model indicate that, given the arrangement of 17 SPND strings and 4 SPNDs per string considered herein, there is a clear, provable ability to infer a localized Gaussian-type peak perturbation in the 3D power distribution. Such a perturbation was detected with an average fuel assembly segment level error of 0.19%, and the general visualization of the detected perturbation clearly indicates that the magnitude and shape were appropriately resolved. Finally, the electrical current output generated by the Geant4 modeled SPND indicates significant magnitude differences than the analytically modeled SPND, demonstrating the need for accurate SPND models which account for finite sensor geometry effects to inform the power synthesis work described herein.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Modeling sequential context effects in diagnostic interpretation of screening mammograms

Prior research has shown that physicians’ medical decisions can be influenced by sequential context, particularly in cases where successive stimuli exhibit similar characteristics when analyzing medical images. This type of systematic error is known to psychophysicists as sequential context effect as it indicates that judgments are influenced by features of and decisions about the preceding case in the sequence of examined cases, rather than being based solely on the peculiarities unique to the present case. We determine if radiologists experience some form of context bias, using screening mammography as the use case. To this end, we explore correlations between previous perceptual behavior and diagnostic decisions and current decisions. We hypothesize that a radiologist’s visual search pattern and diagnostic decisions in previous cases are predictive of the radiologist’s current diagnostic decisions. To test our hypothesis, we tasked 10 radiologists of varied experience to conduct blind reviews of 100 four-view screening mammograms. Eye-tracking data and diagnostic decisions were collected from each radiologist under conditions mimicking clinical practice. Perceptual behavior was quantified using the fractal dimension of gaze scanpath, which was computed using the Minkowski–Bouligand box-counting method. To test the effect of previous behavior and decisions, we conducted a multifactor fixed-effects ANOVA. Further, to examine the predictive value of previous perceptual behavior and decisions, we trained and evaluated a predictive model for radiologists’ current diagnostic decisions. ANOVA tests showed that previous visual behavior, characterized by fractal analysis, previous diagnostic decisions, and image characteristics of previous cases are significant predictors of current diagnostic decisions. Additionally, predictive modeling of diagnostic decisions showed an overall improvement in prediction error when the model is trained on additional information about previous perceptual behavior and diagnostic decisions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The performance of suppressed carrier receivers in a pulsed RFI environment

This paper investigates the tracking performance of a Costas loop in the presence of single and multiple in-band pulsed RFI signals and receiver additive noise. It is shown that the loop's tracking performance is very sensitive to the pulse durations of the RFI signals, as well as their repetition rates and peak powers relative to those of the desired signal. The presence of in-band RFI can affect the loop's tracking performance in basically three ways. 1) The loop tracks the composite phase of the RFI instead of the phase of the desired signal when the effective RFI power is greater than that of the signal. 2) When the effective RFI power is not sufficiently large to capture the loop, there still will exist static phase error biases which cause the loop to lock at a phase between that of the desired signal and the composite RFI. 3) There is an increase in the rms phase jitter over the nominal design. These latter two effects degrade the bit error probability performance of the receiver. More significantly, if the nominal loop bandwidth is not designed properly to account for the increase in jitter phenomenon, frequency cycle slipping may result.

Simon, M. K.↗

Block 4 receiver tracking loop performance in the presence of a CW RFI

A model that allows one to predict the tracking performance of the Block 4 receiver in the presence of a continuous wave radio frequency interference is discussed. Experimental and analytical results are provided for a typical Deep Space Network operational mode. Simulation and experimental results show good agreement with theoretical prediction for the static phase error and out-of-lock values. Predicted phase jitter is consistently lower than the experimental and simulated results by a factor of one-half for small interference to signal ratio (ISR) when the offset frequency is small. For large ISR, good agreement is observed. The analytical model assumes a noiseless condition, which is valid only when the loop is operated at strong signal levels. Experimental data indicate, however, that even at the minimum operating signal level of 10-dB carrier margin, reasonably good prediction can still be obtained. A curve of protection criteria that extends the current recommendation is also presented.

Sue, M. K.↗

Non-dipolar magnetic field models and patterns of radio emission: Uranus and Neptune compared

The magnetic field geometries of Uranus and Neptune are superficially similar, and are similarly unlike those of other planets: the field strengths are similar, and they contain extraordinarily large non-dipolar components. As a corollary, the best dipolar field models of each of the two planets comprises a dipole that is considerably offset from the planetary center and tilted away from the rotational axis. However, in other respects the best field models of the two planets are quite different. Uranus has a quadrupole model in which all the terms are well determined and in which none of the higher order terms is determined. To represent the magnetometer data acquired during Voyager's Neptune encounter requires a model of order 8 (instead of Uranus' order 2), yet many of the coefficients are poorly determined. A second model, an octupole model comprising the terms up to order three of the order 8 model, has been suggested by the magnetometer team as being useful; its use, however, is limited only to the region outside of about 2R(exp N), whereas planetary radio emissions have their sources well inside this surface. Computer code has been written that permits an analysis of the detailed motion of low energy charged particles moving in general planetary magnetic fields. At Uranus, this code reveals the existence of an isolated region of the inner magnetosphere above the day side in which particles may be trapped, separate from the more general magnetospheric trapping. An examination of the so-call ordinary mode uranian radio emissions leads us to believe that these emissions are in fact extraordinary mode emissions coming from particles trapped in this isolated region. A similar attempt to discover trapping regions at Neptune has proved, unfortunately, to be impossible. This arises from three factors: (1) the computation needed to track particles in an eighth order field is more than an order of magnitude greater than that needed to perform a similar calculation in a quadrupole field, and is beyond the capacity of workstation-class computers; (2) the octupole field model is known to be in error by too large an ammount for it, or any similarly truncated version of the eighth order model, to produce trustworthy results; (3) the eighth order model can, in effect, be infinitely varied without affecting the field strength along the spacecraft trajectory.

Evans, D. R.↗

Assessing Satellite-Based Fire Data for use in the National Emissions Inventory

Biomass burning is significant to emission estimates because: (1) it can be a major contributor of particulate matter and other pollutants; (2) it is one of the most poorly documented of all sources; (3) it can adversely affect human health; and (4) it has been identified as a significant contributor to climate change through feedbacks with the radiation budget. Additionally, biomass burning can be a significant contributor to a regions inability to achieve the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for PM 2.5 and ozone, particularly on the top 20% worst air quality days. The United States does not have a standard methodology to track fire occurrence or area burned, which are essential components to estimating fire emissions. Satellite imagery is available almost instantaneously and has great potential to enhance emission estimates and their timeliness. This investigation compares satellite-derived fire data to ground-based data to assign statistical error and helps provide confidence in these data. The largest fires are identified by all satellites and their spatial domain is accurately sensed. MODIS provides enhanced spatial and temporal information, and GOES ABBA data are able to capture more small agricultural fires. A methodology is presented that combines these satellite data in Near-Real-Time to produce a product that captures 81 to 92% of the total area burned by wildfire, prescribed, agricultural and rangeland burning. Each satellite possesses distinct temporal and spatial capabilities that permit the detection of unique fires that could be omitted if using data from only one satellite.

Soja, Amber J.↗

Planning Satellite Swarm Measurements for Climate Models: Comparing Dynamic Constraint Processing and MILP Methods

We present D-SHIELD, a challenging climate science application to plan coordinated measurements (observations) for a constellation of satellites, each containing two different sensors, each with 61 pointing angle options. The L-band and P-band radar sensors collect data fed into a soil moisture model which tracks and predicts soil moisture across 1.67 million Ground Positions (GP). Soil moisture is an important predictor of wildfires, and then a predictor of floods, landslides and debris flow after a fire. Each measurement covers multiple GP due to the sensor footprint. Each GP has a "model error" which represents the uncertainty of the the soil moisture state prediction. Model error changes at different rates for each GP as the time since last observation increases and after significant events like rain. The planner's goal is to select measurements which maximize soil moisture model improvement (reduce model uncertainty). This problem is combinatorically explosive, involving many degrees of freedom for planner choices. Good domain heuristics can find solutions within a reasonable time for our application needs but cannot be proven optimal. In this paper we compare two different planning approaches to this problem: Dynamic Constraint Processing (DCP) and Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). We match inputs and metrics for both DCP and MILP algorithms to enable a direct apples-to-apples comparison. We demonstrate and discuss the trades between DCP flexibility and performance vs. MILP's promise of provable optimality.

Rich Levinson↗

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