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At least 1,801 records · Page 100

A New Era of H-O-C-S Magma Solubility Modeling: Better, Faster, Stronger

H 2 O, CO 2 , and S are the most abundant volatiles in magmatic systems and are critical to understanding magma storage, phase equilibria, and volcanic eruptions. Models that consider all three of these components, however, may not allow for critical examination and adjustment of assumptions underlying the model, or provide benchmark testing or extensible interfaces. Thus, understanding why models produce different results can be challenging. We have gathered authors of established (D-Compress) and recent (VolFe, EVo, Sulfur_X, MAGEC) H-O-C-S volatile solubility models to work together to understand how and why our models diverge. We present a series of benchmark basalt degassing scenarios revealing that often understated model assumptions such as fO 2 buffer equations, fO 2 -Fe 3+ /ΣFe relationships, and even major element normalization routines have outsized effects on model results. All models consider S 2- and S 6+ melt species but with different approaches to sulfate/sulfide capacities, partition coefficients, and species fugacities, leading to divergence in the evolution of modeled gas compositions, melt S and Fe speciation, and fO 2 , with the extent of divergence depending on melt composition. Such scenarios enable meaningful intercomparison of existing models and lay the groundwork for a user-friendly yet powerful solubility modeling framework. Given our wealth of existing solubility literature, we suggest that the field of magmatic volatiles should focus now on the creation of modern tools and the modular implementation of existing model equations or methods, and that the evaluation of code usability, transparency, and benchmarking should be codified pillars of the peer-review process. As an example of such an endeavor, we present early work coupling these sulfur solubility models with VESIcal, an extensible and rigorously tested python library containing seven existing H 2 O-CO 2 solubility models. VESIcal includes the ability to extract, edit, and even interchange assumptions underlying any model. For example, users may combine or swap separately published H 2 O, CO 2 , and S models, as well as underlying model choices, such as Equations of State and redox models.

volatiles in magmas↗

Strong Stability Preserving Integrating Factor Two-Step Runge-Kutta Methods

In this report, problems with components that feature significantly different time scales, where the stiff time-step restriction comes from a linear component, implicit-explicit (IMEX) methods alleviate this restriction if the concern is linear stability. However, when nonlinear non-inner-product stability properties are of interest, such as in the evolution of hyperbolic partial differential equations with shocks or sharp gradients, linear inner-product stability is no longer sufficient for convergence, and so strong stability preserving (SSP) methods are often needed. Where the SSP property is needed, IMEX SSP Runge-Kutta (SSP-IMEX) methods have very restrictive time-steps. An alternative to SSP-IMEX schemes is to adopt an integrating factor approach to handle the linear component exactly and step the transformed problem forward using some time-evolution method. The strong stability properties of integrating factor Runge-Kutta methods were established in Isherwood et al. (SIAM J Numer Anal 56(6):3276–3307, 2018), where it was shown that it is possible to define explicit integrating factor Runge-Kutta methods that preserve strong stability properties satisfied by each of the two components when coupled with forward Euler time-stepping. It was proved that the solution will be SSP if the transformed problem is stepped forward with an explicit SSP Runge-Kutta method that has non-decreasing abscissas. However, explicit SSP Runge-Kutta methods have an order barrier of p=4, and sometimes higher order is desired. In this work we consider explicit SSP two-step Runge-Kutta integrating factor methods to raise the order. We show that strong stability is ensured if the two-step Runge-Kutta method used to evolve the transformed problem is SSP and has non-decreasing abscissas. We find such methods up to eighth order and present their SSP coefficients. Adding a step allows us to break the fourth order barrier on explicit SSP Runge-Kutta methods; furthermore, our explicit SSP two-step Runge-Kutta methods with non-decreasing abscissas typically have larger SSP coefficients than the corresponding one-step methods. A selection of our methods are tested for convergence and demonstrate the design order. We also show, for selected methods, that the SSP time-step predicted by the theory is a lower bound of the allowable time-step for linear and nonlinear problems that satisfy the total variation diminishing (TVD) condition. We compare some of the non-decreasing abscissa SSP two-step Runge-Kutta methods to previously found methods that do not satisfy this criterion on linear and nonlinear TVD test cases to show that this non-decreasing abscissa condition is indeed necessary in practice as well as theory. We also compare these results to our SSP integrating factor Runge-Kutta methods designed in Isherwood et al. (2018).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Density Measurement of NaCl-MgCl 2 -PuCl 3 and NaCl-UCl 3 -PuCl 3 Molten Salt Systems by Neutron Radiographic Dilatometry

A novel neutron radiographic technique was developed and implemented to measure the change in volume as a function of temperature of select plutonium-containing liquid chloride mixtures from melt to 1250 K. These measurements were performed at Los Alamos National Laboratory by members of the molten salt research group under support from Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN) voucher NE-21-25117: “Density Measurements of Plutonium Bearing Salts via Neutron Beam Dilatometry”. This technical report contains a description of the experimental method and a summary of the results. Initial characterization of the {NaCl, MgCl 2 , UCl 3 , PuCl 3 } salts used in this experiment includes a combination of x-ray diffraction, differential scanning calorimetry, gamma ray spectroscopy, and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Four samples of NaCl + MgCl 2 + x mol% PuCl 3 and four samples of NaCl + UCl 3 + x mol% PuCl 3 were prepared at the Plutonium Facility, shipped to the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE), and radiographed with the density via neutron radiography (DvNR) apparatus. Density data in the form of meniscus heights were recorded as a function of temperature. The results show a linear dependence of density with temperature and a third order polynomial dependence of density with composition as a function of PuCl 3 addition in the corresponding halide salt mixture. Additions of PuCl 3 result in a significant increase in density of the salt mixture and a slight reduction in the coefficient of volumetric expansion. These results represent a first measurement of the density of plutonium chloride salt mixtures and, in combination with additional measurements, may lead to a generalized description of the density of such salt systems for arbitrary compositions and temperature.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Estimation of secondary organic aerosol viscosity from explicit modeling of gas-phase oxidation of isoprene and α -pinene

Abstract. Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are major components of atmospheric fine particulate matter, affecting climate and air quality. Mounting evidence exists that SOA can adopt glassy and viscous semisolid states, impacting formation and partitioning of SOA. In this study, we apply the GECKO-A (Generator of Explicit Chemistry and Kinetics of Organics in the Atmosphere) model to conduct explicit chemical modeling of isoprene photooxidation and α-pinene ozonolysis and their subsequent SOA formation. The detailed gas-phase chemical schemes from GECKO-A are implemented into a box model and coupled to our recently developed glass transition temperature parameterizations, allowing us to predict SOA viscosity. The effects of chemical composition, relative humidity, mass loadings and mass accommodation on particle viscosity are investigated in comparison with measurements of SOA viscosity. The simulated viscosity of isoprene SOA agrees well with viscosity measurements as a function of relative humidity, while the model underestimates viscosity of α-pinene SOA by a few orders of magnitude. This difference may be due to missing processes in the model, including autoxidation and particle-phase reactions, leading to the formation of high-molar-mass compounds that would increase particle viscosity. Additional simulations imply that kinetic limitations of bulk diffusion and reduction in mass accommodation coefficient may play a role in enhancing particle viscosity by suppressing condensation of semi-volatile compounds. The developed model is a useful tool for analysis and investigation of the interplay among gas-phase reactions, particle chemical composition and SOA phase state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiwire proportional chamber development

The development of large area multiwire proportional chambers, to be used as high resolution spatial detectors in cosmic ray experiments is described. A readout system was developed which uses a directly coupled, lumped element delay-line whose characteristics are independent of the MWPC design. A complete analysis of the delay-line and the readout electronic system shows that a spatial resolution of about 0.1 mm can be reached with the MWPC operating in the strictly proportional region. This was confirmed by measurements with a small MWPC and Fe-55 X-rays. A simplified analysis was carried out to estimate the theoretical limit of spatial resolution due to delta-rays, spread of the discharge along the anode wire, and inclined trajectories. To calculate the gas gain of MWPC's of different geometrical configurations a method was developed which is based on the knowledge of the first Townsend coefficient of the chamber gas.

Doolittle, R. F.↗

Updated Chemical Kinetics and Sensitivity Analysis Code

An updated version of the General Chemical Kinetics and Sensitivity Analysis (LSENS) computer code has become available. A prior version of LSENS was described in "Program Helps to Determine Chemical-Reaction Mechanisms" (LEW-15758), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 19, No. 5 (May 1995), page 66. To recapitulate: LSENS solves complex, homogeneous, gas-phase, chemical-kinetics problems (e.g., combustion of fuels) that are represented by sets of many coupled, nonlinear, first-order ordinary differential equations. LSENS has been designed for flexibility, convenience, and computational efficiency. The present version of LSENS incorporates mathematical models for (1) a static system; (2) steady, one-dimensional inviscid flow; (3) reaction behind an incident shock wave, including boundary layer correction; (4) a perfectly stirred reactor; and (5) a perfectly stirred reactor followed by a plug-flow reactor. In addition, LSENS can compute equilibrium properties for the following assigned states: enthalpy and pressure, temperature and pressure, internal energy and volume, and temperature and volume. For static and one-dimensional-flow problems, including those behind an incident shock wave and following a perfectly stirred reactor calculation, LSENS can compute sensitivity coefficients of dependent variables and their derivatives, with respect to the initial values of dependent variables and/or the rate-coefficient parameters of the chemical reactions.

Radhakrishnan, Krishnan↗

A Global Atmospheric Model of Meteoric Iron

The first global model of meteoric iron in the atmosphere (WACCM-Fe) has been developed by combining three components: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a description of the neutral and ion-molecule chemistry of iron in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and a treatment of the injection of meteoric constituents into the atmosphere. The iron chemistry treats seven neutral and four ionized iron containing species with 30 neutral and ion-molecule reactions. The meteoric input function (MIF), which describes the injection of Fe as a function of height, latitude, and day, is precalculated from an astronomical model coupled to a chemical meteoric ablation model (CABMOD). This newly developed WACCM-Fe model has been evaluated against a number of available ground-based lidar observations and performs well in simulating the mesospheric atomic Fe layer. The model reproduces the strong positive correlation of temperature and Fe density around the Fe layer peak and the large anticorrelation around 100 km. The diurnal tide has a significant effect in the middle of the layer, and the model also captures well the observed seasonal variations. However, the model overestimates the peak Fe+ concentration compared with the limited rocket-borne mass spectrometer data available, although good agreement on the ion layer underside can be obtained by adjusting the rate coefficients for dissociative recombination of Fe-molecular ions with electrons. Sensitivity experiments with the same chemistry in a 1-D model are used to highlight significant remaining uncertainties in reaction rate coefficients, and to explore the dependence of the total Fe abundance on the MIF and rate of vertical transport.

meteoric inputfunction↗

Small instanton-induced flavor invariants and the axion potential

Small instantons which increase the axion mass due to an appropriate modification of QCD at a UV scale ΛSI, can also enhance the effect of CP-violating operators to shift the axion potential minimum by an amount, θ ind, proportional to the flavorful couplings in the SMEFT. Since physical observables must be flavor basis independent, we construct a basis of determinant-like flavor invariants that arise from instanton calculations containing the effects of dimension-six CP-odd operators at the scale Λ CP . This new basis provides a more reliable estimate of the shift θ ind, that is severely constrained by neutron electric dipole moment experiments. In particular, for the case of four-quark, semi-leptonic and gluon dipole operators, these invariants are then used to provide improved limits on the ratio of scales Λ SI /Λ CP for different flavor scenarios. The CP-odd flavor invariants also provide a classification of the leading effects from Wilson coefficients, and as an example, we show that a semi-leptonic four-fermion operator is subdominant compared to the four-quark operators. More generally, the flavor invariants, together with an instanton NDA, can be used to more accurately estimate small instanton effects in the axion potential that arise from any SMEFT operator.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Fuel cells for single-aisle regional aircraft: System configuration, performance and cost

A hydrogen fuel cell propelled electric aircraft can compete with incumbent turbofan technologies for single-aisle regional aircraft by coupling design of stack, air handling, thermal management, propulsion, and airframe to optimize performance. The stack operates at 95°C to facilitate heat rejection during take-off and below 75°C during cruise to extend lifetime and is oversized to satisfy power requirements at end of life. A multi-stage turbocompressor with a compression ratio >10 is selected to reach high stack power density at 11,300-m cruise altitude. The propulsion system is configured to accommodate air handling within the core duct, an inclined heat exchanger in the outer duct to limit the nacelle size, and variable area nozzles to independently control mass flows through the core and bypass ducts. The airframe is modified for maximum lift coefficient and longer balanced field length for dramatically reduced thrust during take-off, and the fuselage is stretched by 20% to store liquid hydrogen (LH 2 ). Modularization of power systems promotes safety in one engine inoperative scenarios and allows reaching specific power metrics for stack, balance-of-plant and fuel cell system (FCS), necessary for acceptable take-off weight. In conclusion, cost parity requires increase in FCS lifetime, LH 2 cost reduction, and improved FCS specific power.

Catalyst durability↗

Transverse-momentum and event-shape dependence of D-meson flow harmonics in Pb–Pb collisions at s NN = 5.02 TeV

The elliptic and triangular flow coefficients v 2 and v 3 of prompt D 0 , D + , and D * + mesons were measured at midrapidity ( | y | < 0.8 ) in Pb–Pb collisions at the centre-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of s NN = 5.02 TeV with the ALICE detector at the LHC. The D mesons were reconstructed via their hadronic decays in the transverse momentum interval 1 < p T < 36 GeV / c in central (0–10%) and semi-central (30–50%) collisions. Compared to pions, protons, and J / ψ mesons, the average D-meson v n harmonics are compatible within uncertainties with a mass hierarchy for p T ≲ 3 GeV / c , and are similar to those of charged pions for higher p T . The coupling of the charm quark to the light quarks in the underlying medium is further investigated with the application of the event-shape engineering (ESE) technique to the D-meson v 2 and p T -differential yields. The D-meson v 2 is correlated with average bulk elliptic flow in both central and semi-central collisions. Within the current precision, the ratios of per-event D-meson yields in the ESE-selected and unbiased samples are found to be compatible with unity. All the measurements are found to be reasonably well described by theoretical calculations including the effects of charm-quark transport and the recombination of charm quarks with light quarks in a hydrodynamically expanding medium.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Carbon-Temperature-Water Change Analysis for Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.

climate change↗

Hypervelocity atmospheric flight: Real gas flow fields

Flight in the atmosphere is examined from the viewpoint of including real gas phenomena in the flow field about a vehicle flying at hypervelocity. That is to say, the flow field is subject not only to compressible phenomena, but is dominated by energetic phenomena. There are several significant features of such a flow field. Spatially, its composition can vary by both chemical and elemental species. The equations which describe the flow field include equations of state and mass, species, elemental, and electric charge continuity; momentum; and energy equations. These are nonlinear, coupled, partial differential equations that were reduced to a relatively compact set of equations of a self-consistent manner (which allows mass addition at the surface at a rate comparable to the free-stream mass flux). The equations and their inputs allow for transport of these quantities relative to the mass-averaged behavior of the flow field. Thus transport of mass by chemical, thermal, pressure, and forced diffusion; transport of momentum by viscosity; and transport of energy by conduction, chemical considerations, viscosity, and radiative transfer are included. The last of these complicate the set of equations by making the energy equation a partial integrodifferential equation. Each phenomenon is considered and represented mathematically by one or more developments. The coefficients which pertain are both thermodynamically and chemically dependent. Solutions of the equations are presented and discussed in considerable detail, with emphasis on severe energetic flow fields. For hypervelocity flight in low-density environments where gaseous reactions proceed at finite rates, chemical nonequilibrium is considered and some illustrations are presented. Finally, flight where the flow field may be out of equilibrium, both chemically and thermodynamically, is presented briefly.

Howe, John T.↗

Two-loop renormalization of quantum gravity simplified

The coefficient of the dimensionally regularized two-loop R 3 divergence of (nonsupersymmetric) gravity theories has recently been shown to change when nondynamical three-forms are added to the theory, or when a pseudoscalar is replaced by the antisymmetric two-form field to which it is dual. This phenomenon involves evanescent operators, whose matrix elements vanish in four dimensions, including the Gauss-Bonnet operator which is also connected to the trace anomaly. On the other hand, these effects appear to have no physical consequences for renormalized scattering processes. In particular, the dependence of the two-loop four-graviton scattering amplitude on the renormalization scale is simple. As a result, we explain this result for any minimally-coupled massless gravity theory with renormalizable matter interactions by using unitarity cuts in four dimensions and never invoking evanescent operators.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Magnetostrictive Cold Spray Sensor Feasibility Assessment

Ultrasound sensors and inspection systems are frequently used to generate acoustic waves in metal structures capable of detecting and characterizing cracks, pits, erosion, inclusions, weld anomalies, and other material and structural features. One significant problem with piezoelectric transducers is the difficulty to achieve good coupling between the transducer and the surface being examined. This is particularly true in harsh conditions with high temperatures, cyclical hot and cold temperatures, highly radioactive fields found near nuclear reactors or spent nuclear fuel, caustic or corrosive fluids, and other extreme environmental conditions, as well as in long-term monitoring applications where repair or replacement of the sensor is difficult or expensive. Typically, coupling between the surface and the transducer is achieved with water, gel, grease, viscous shear coupling material, or pressure, which might not be possible or appropriate for long-term applications in which the impedance -matching materials wear away, evaporate, or simply stop functioning due to changes in surface conditions. Fluid couplings can evaporate or drain away from the transducer-substrate interface; glue- based couplings may foul or fail and are notoriously unreliable at high temperatures and in radioactive environments. This work explores the behavior of a magnetostrictive cold-spray patch that is metallurgically bonded to a stainless steel inspection target surface, and compares it to the performance of a standard adhesively-bonded ferrous-cobalt magnetostrictive strip solution. Cold-spray is a coating process where 10 –100 micron diameter powdered metal is accelerated to Mach 2 to Mach 3 (2–3 × speed of sound) and impacted on the surface to be coated. Each powder particle forms a kinetic bond with the substrate or other coating particles to produce a metallurgically bonded layer. If the powder is nickel or cobalt with high magnetostrictive coefficients, this surface can serve as the base of a magnetostrictive sensor suitable for crack or pitting-damage inspection and monitoring that is not subject to temporal or environmental degradation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Hypervelocity atmospheric flight: Real gas flow fields

Flight in the atmosphere is examined from the viewpoint of including real gas phenomena in the flow field about a vehicle flying at hypervelocity. That is to say, the flow field is subject not only to compressible phenomena, but is dominated by energetic phenomena. There are several significant features of such a flow field. Spatially, its composition can vary by both chemical and elemental species. The equations which describe the flow field include equations of state and mass, species, elemental, and electric charge continuity; momentum; and energy equations. These are nonlinear, coupled, partial differential equations that have been reduced to a relatively compact set of equations in a self-consistent manner (which allows mass addition at the surface at a rate comparable to the free-stream mass flux). The equations and their inputs allow for transport of these quantities relative to the mass-average behavior of the flow field. Thus transport of mass by chemical, thermal, pressure, and forced diffusion; transport of momentum by viscosity; and transport of energy by conduction, chemical considerations, viscosity, and radiative transfer are included. The last of these complicate the set of equations by making the energy equations a partial integrodifferential equation. Each phenomenon is considered and represented mathematically by one or more developments. The coefficients which pertain are both thermodynamically and chemically dependent. Solutions of the equations are presented and discussed in considerable detail, with emphasis on severe energetic flow fields. Hypervelocity flight in low-density environments where gaseous reactions proceed at finite rates chemical nonequilibrium is considered, and some illustrations are presented. Finally, flight where the flow field may be out of equilibrium, both chemically and thermodynamically, is presented briefly.

Howe, John T.↗

Identifying Chemical Aerosol Signatures Using Optical Suborbital Observations: How Much Can Optical Properties Tell us about Aerosol Composition?

Improvements in air quality and Earth’s climate predictions require improvements of the aerosol speciation in chemical transport models, using observational constraints. Aerosol speciation (e.g., organic aerosols, black carbon, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, dust or sea salt) is typically determined using in situ instrumentation. Continuous, routine surface network aerosol composition measurements are not uniformly widespread over the globe. Satellites, on the other hand, can provide a maximum coverage of the horizontal and vertical atmosphere but observe aerosol optical properties (and not aerosol speciation) based on remote sensing instrumentation. Combinations of satellite-derived aerosol optical properties can inform on air mass aerosol types (AMTs e.g., clean marine, dust, polluted continental). However, these AMTs are subjectively defined, might often be misclassified and are hard to relate to the critical parameters that need to be refined in models. In this paper, we derive AMTs that are more directly related to sources and hence to speciation. They are defined, characterized, and derived using simultaneous in situ gas-phase, chemical and optical instruments on the same aircraft during the Study of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds, and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS, US, summer of 2013). First, we prescribe well-informed AMTs that display distinct aerosol chemical and optical signatures to act as a training AMT dataset. These in situ observations reduce the errors and ambiguities in the selection of the AMT training dataset. We also investigate the relative skill of various combinations of aerosol optical properties to define AMTs and how much these optical properties can capture dominant aerosol speciation. We find distinct optical signatures for biomass burning (from agricultural or wildfires), biogenic and dust-influence AMTs. Useful aerosol optical properties to characterize these signatures are the extinction angstrom exponent (EAE), the single scattering albedo, the difference of single scattering albedo in two wavelengths, the absorption coefficient, the absorption angstrom exponent (AAE), and the real part of the refractive index (RRI). We find that all four AMTs studied when prescribed using mostly airborne in situ gas measurements, can be successfully extracted from at least three combinations of airborne in situ aerosol optical properties (e.g., EAE, AAE and RRI) over the US during SEAC4RS. However, we find that the optically based classifications for BB from agricultural fires and polluted dust include a large percentage of misclassifications that limit the usefulness of results relating to those classes. The technique and results presented in this study are suitable to develop a representative, robust and diverse source-based AMT database. This database could then be used for widespread retrievals of AMTs using existing and future remote sensing suborbital instruments/networks. Ultimately, it has the potential to provide a much broader observational aerosol data set to evaluate chemical transport and air quality models than is currently available by direct in situ measurements. This study illustrates how essential it is to explore existing airborne datasets to bridge chemical and optical signatures of different AMTs, before the implementation of future spaceborne missions (e.g., the next generation of Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites addressing Aerosol, Cloud, Convection and Precipitation (ACCP) designated observables).

Meloe S F Kacenelenbogen↗

Repulsive black holes and higher-derivatives

In two-derivative theories of gravity coupled to matter, charged black holes are self-attractive at large distances, with the force vanishing at zero temperature. However, in the presence of massless scalar fields and four-derivative corrections, zero-temperature black holes no longer need to obey the no-force condition. In this paper, we show how to calculate the long-range force between such black holes. We develop an efficient method for computing the higher-derivative corrections to the scalar charges when the theory has a shift symmetry, and compute the resulting force in a variety of examples. We find that higher-derivative corrected black holes may be self-attractive or self-repulsive, depending on the value of the Wilson coefficients and the VEVs of scalar moduli. Indeed, we find black hole solutions which are both superextremal and self-attractive. Furthermore, we present examples where no choice of higher-derivative coefficients allows for self-repulsive black hole states in all directions in charge space. This suggests that, unlike the Weak Gravity Conjecture, which may be satisfied by the black hole spectrum alone, the Repulsive Force Conjecture requires additional constraints on the spectrum of charged particles.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Upper Blue Nile Basin Water Budget from a Multi-Model Perspective

Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based meteorological datasets from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications datasets (i.e., MERRA-Land and MERRA-2) and three observation-based precipitation datasets, generating a total of 16 experiments. Modeled evapotranspiration (ET), streamflow, and terrestrial water storage estimates were evaluated against the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) ET, in-situ streamflow observations, and NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) products, respectively. Results show that CLSMF2.5 provided better representation of the water budget variables than Noah3.3 in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient when considering all meteorological forcing datasets and precipitation datasets. The model experiments forced with observation-based products, the Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), outperform those run with MERRA-Land and MERRA-2 precipitation. The results presented in this paper would suggest that the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System incorporate CLSMF2.5 and HyMAP routing scheme to better represent the water balance in this region.

Rainfall↗

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