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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Quantifying Hydraulic and Water Quality Uncertainty to Inform Sampling of Drinking Water Distribution Systems

Sampling of drinking water distribution systems is performed to ensure good water quality and protect public health. Sampling also satisfies regulatory requirements and is done to respond to customer complaints or emergency situations. Water distribution system modeling techniques can be used to plan and inform sampling strategies. However, a high degree of accuracy and confidence in the hydraulic and water quality models is required to support real-time response. One source of error in these models is related to uncertainty in model input parameters. Effective characterization of these uncertainties and their effect on contaminant transport during a contamination incident is critical for providing confidence estimates in model-based design and evaluation of different sampling strategies. In this paper, the effects of uncertainty in customer demand, isolation valve status, bulk reaction rate coefficient, contaminant injection location, start time, duration, and rate on the size and location of the contaminant plume are quantified for two example water distribution systems. Results show that the most important parameter was the injection location. The size of the plume was also affected by the reaction rate coefficient, injection rate, and injection duration, whereas the exact location of the plume was additionally affected by the isolation valve status. As a result, uncertainty quantification provides a more complete picture of how contaminants move within a water distribution system and more information when using modeling results to select sampling locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Quasilinear diffusion coefficients in a finite Larmor radius expansion for ion cyclotron heated plasmas

In this study, a reduced model of quasilinear velocity diffusion by a small Larmor radius approximation is derived to couple the Maxwell’s equations and the Fokker Planck equation self-consistently for the ion cyclotron range of frequency waves in a tokamak. The reduced model ensures the important properties of the full model by Kennel-Engelmann diffusion, such as diffusion directions, wave polarizations, and H-theorem. The kinetic energy change (Wdot ) is used to derive the reduced model diffusion coefficients for the fundamental damping (n = 1) and the second harmonic damping (n = 2) to the lowest order of the finite Larmor radius expansion. The quasilinear diffusion coefficients are implemented in a coupled code (TORIC-CQL3D) with the equivalent reduced model of the dielectric tensor. We also present the simulations of the ITER minority heating scenario, in which the reduced model is verified within the allowable errors from the full model results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Measuring primordial gravitational waves from CMB B−modes in cosmologies with generalized expansion histories

We evaluate our capability to constrain the abundance of primordial tensor perturbations (primordial gravitational waves, PGWs) in cosmologies with generalized expansion histories in the epoch of cosmic acceleration. Forthcoming satellite and sub-orbital experiments probing polarization in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) are expected to measure the B−mode power in CMB polarization, coming from PGWs on the degree scale, as well as gravitational lensing on arcminute scales; the latter is the main competitor for the measurement of PGWs, and is directly affected by the underlying expansion history, determined by the presence of a Dark Energy (DE) component. In particular, we consider early DE possible scenarios, in which the expansion history is substantially modified at the epoch in which the CMB lensing is most relevant. We show that the introduction of a parametrized DE may induce a variation as large as 30% in the ratio of the power of lensing and PGWs on the degree scale. We find that adopting the nominal specifications of upcoming satellite measurements, the constraining power on PGWs is weakened by the inclusion of the extra degrees of freedom, resulting in a reduction of about 10% of the upper limits on r in fiducial models with no GWs, as well as a comparable increase in the error bars in models with non-zero tensor power. Moreover, we find that the inclusion of sub-orbital CMB experiments, capable of mapping the B−mode power up to the angular scales which are affected by lensing, has the effect of restoring the forecasted performances with a fixed cosmological expansion history corresponding to a cosmological constant. Finally, we show how the combination of CMB data with Type Ia SuperNovae (SNe), Baryonic Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) and Hubble constant allows to constrain simultaneously the primordial tensor power and the DE quantities in the parametrization we consider, consisting of present abundance and first redshift derivative of the energy density. We compare this study with results obtained using the forecasted lensing potential measurement precision from CMB satellite observations, finding consistent results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Evaluating IMRT and VMAT dose accuracy: Practical examples of failure to detect systematic errors when applying a commonly used metric and action levels

Purpose: This study (1) examines a variety of real-world cases where systematic errors were not detected by widely accepted methods for IMRT/VMAT dosimetric accuracy evaluation, and (2) drills-down to identify failure modes and their corresponding means for detection, diagnosis, and mitigation. The primary goal of detailing these case studies is to explore different, more sensitive methods and metrics that could be used more effectively for evaluating accuracy of dose algorithms, delivery systems, and QA devices.Methods: The authors present seven real-world case studies representing a variety of combinations of the treatment planning system (TPS), linac, delivery modality, and systematic error type. These case studies are typical to what might be used as part of an IMRT or VMAT commissioning test suite, varying in complexity. Each case study is analyzed according to TG-119 instructions for gamma passing rates and action levels for per-beam and/or composite plan dosimetric QA. Then, each case study is analyzed in-depth with advanced diagnostic methods (dose profile examination, EPID-based measurements, dose difference pattern analysis, 3D measurement-guided dose reconstruction, and dose grid inspection) and more sensitive metrics (2% local normalization/2 mm DTA and estimated DVH comparisons).Results: For these case studies, the conventional 3%/3 mm gamma passing rates exceeded 99% for IMRT per-beam analyses and ranged from 93.9% to 100% for composite plan dose analysis, well above the TG-119 action levels of 90% and 88%, respectively. However, all cases had systematic errors that were detected only by using advanced diagnostic techniques and more sensitive metrics. The systematic errors caused variable but noteworthy impact, including estimated target dose coverage loss of up to 5.5% and local dose deviations up to 31.5%. Types of errors included TPS model settings, algorithm limitations, and modeling and alignment of QA phantoms in the TPS. Most of the errors were correctable after detection and diagnosis, and the uncorrectable errors provided useful information about system limitations, which is another key element of system commissioning.Conclusions: Many forms of relevant systematic errors can go undetected when the currently prevalent metrics for IMRT/VMAT commissioning are used. If alternative methods and metrics are used instead of (or in addition to) the conventional metrics, these errors are more likely to be detected, and only once they are detected can they be properly diagnosed and rooted out of the system. Removing systematic errors should be a goal not only of commissioning by the end users but also product validation by the manufacturers. For any systematic errors that cannot be removed, detecting and quantifying them is important as it will help the physicist understand the limits of the system and work with the manufacturer on improvements. In summary, IMRT and VMAT commissioning, along with product validation, would benefit from the retirement of the 3%/3 mm passing rates as a primary metric of performance, and the adoption instead of tighter tolerances, more diligent diagnostics, and more thorough analysis.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Evaluation of Various Methods for Estimating Global Solar Radiation in the Southeastern United States

Global solar radiation Rg is an important input for crop models to simulate crop responses. Because the scarcity of long and continuous records of Rg is a serious limitation in many countries, Rg is estimated using models. For crop-model application, empirical Rg models that use commonly measured meteorological variables, such as temperature and precipitation, are generally preferred. Although a large number of models of this kind exist, few have been evaluated for conditions in the United States. This study evaluated the performances of 16 empirical, temperature- and/or precipitation-based Rg models for the southeastern United States. By taking into account spatial distribution and data availability, 30 locations in the region were selected and their daily weather data spanning eight years obtained. One-half of the data was used for calibrating the models, and the other half was used for evaluation. For each model, location-specific parameter values were estimated through regressions. Models were evaluated for each location using the root-mean-square error and the modeling efficiency as goodness-of-fit measures. Among the models that use temperature or precipitation as the input variable, the Mavromatis model showed the best performance. The piecewise linear regression based Wu et al. model (WP) performed best not only among the models that use both temperature and precipitation but also among the 16 models evaluated, mainly because it has separate relationships for low and high radiation levels. The modeling efficiency of WP was from ~5% to more than 100% greater than those of the other models, depending on models and locations.

Irradiance, Model evaluation/performance, Agricult↗
DOE OSTI2014

Technical Development for S-CO 2 Advanced Energy Conversion

This report is divided into four parts. First part of the report describes the methods used to measure and model the flow of supercritical carbon dioxide (S-CO 2 ) through annuli and straight-through labyrinth seals. The effects of shaft eccentricity in small diameter annuli were observed for length-to-hydraulic diameter (L/D) ratios of 6, 12, 143, and 235. Flow rates through tooth-cavity labyrinth seals were measured for inlet pressures of 7.7, 10, and 11 MPa with corresponding inlet densities of 325, 475, and 630 kg/m 3 . Various leakage models were compared to this result to describe their applicability in supercritical carbon dioxide applications. Flow rate measurements were made varying tooth number for labyrinth seals of same total length. Second part of the report describes the computational study performed to understand the leakage through the labyrinth seals using Open source CFD package OpenFOAM. Fluid Property Interpolation Tables (FIT) program was implemented in OpenFOAM to accurately model the properties of CO2 required to solve the governing equations. To predict the flow behavior in the two phase dome Homogeneous Equilibrium Model (HEM) is assumed to be valid. Experimental results for plain orifice (L/D ~ 5) were used to show the capabilities of the FIT model implemented in OpenFOAM. Error analysis indicated that OpenFOAM is capable of predicting experimental data within ±10% error with the majority of data close to ±5% error. Following the validation of computational model, effects of geometrical parameters and operating conditions are isolated from each other and a parametric study was performed in two parts to understand their effects on leakage flow. Third part of the report provides the details of the constructed heat exchanger test facility and presents the experimental results obtained to investigate the effects of buoyancy on heat transfer characteristics of Supercritical carbon dioxide in heating mode. Turbulent flows with Reynolds numbers up to 60,000, at operating pressures of 7.5, 8.1, and 10.2 MPa were tested in a round tube. Local heat transfer coefficients were obtained from measured wall temperatures over a large set of experimental parameters that varied inlet temperature from 20 °C to 55 °C,mass flux from 150 to 350 kg/m 2 s, and a maximum heat flux of 65 KW/m 2 . Horizontal, upward and downward flows were tested to investigate the unusual heat-transfer characteristics to the effect of buoyancy and flow acceleration caused by large variation in density. Final part of this report presents the simplified analysis performed to investigate the possibility of using wet cooling tower option to reject heat from the supercritical carbon dioxide Brayton cycle power convertor for AFR-100 and ABR-1000 plants. A code was developed to estimate the tower dimensions, power and water consumption, and to perform economic analysis. The code developed was verified by comparing the calculations to a vendor quote. The effect of ambient air and water conditions on the sizing and construction of the cooling tower as well as the cooler is studied. Finally, a cost-based optimization technique is used to estimate the optimum water conditions which will improve the plant economics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1975

Sensitivity analysis of short-arc station coordinate determinations from range data

The accurate determination of the geocentric coordinates of a tracking station is essential for most geodetic and geophysical satellite applications. Since most of these satellites are close to the earth, the geopotential model is a dominant source of error which significantly influences station coordinate determinations. Other sources, such as GM error and drag, also influence the accuracy of the station coordinate determination. One technique for reducing the effect of these errors is to use short-arcs consisting of a few passes of the satellite over the tracking station. This paper analyzes the sensitivity of short-arc station coordinate estimates to various errors in the physical model, to the number of observations, and to the station-satellite geometry using simulated as well as real data.

Schutz, B. E.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Sensitivity analysis of short-arc station coordinate determinations from range data

The accurate determination of the geocentric coordinates of a tracking station is essential for most geodetic and geophysical satellite applications. Since most of these satellites are close to the earth, the geopotential model is a dominant source of error which significantly influences station coordinate determinations. Other sources, such as GM error and drag, also influence the accuracy of the station coordinate determination. One technique for reducing the effect of these errors is to use short-arcs consisting of a few passes of the satellite over the tracking station. This paper analyzes the sensitivity of short-arc station coordinate estimates to various errors in the physical model, to the number of observations, and to the station-satellite geometry using simulated as well as real data.

Schutz, B. E.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Model for redundant-sensor signal errors

Report describes application of order statistics to analysis of failure modes in redundant systems. Report provides detailed mathematical discussion of approach, accompanied by graphs and equations. Techniques are relevant to process that demand high reliability, such as manufacture of dangerous chemicals. It also includes discussion of quad-redundant system.

Sowada, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Mathematical models for cochannel interference in FH/MFSK multiple-access systems

FH/MFSK has been proposed for a multiuser spread spectrum digital communication system to combat both self-jamming and intentional jamming. An independence assumption at the energy detector outputs is used to evaluate such a system for a digitized voice mobile radio system (Yue, 1981). This paper presents a correlated model and compares its performance to an independence model under the symbol error probability criterion. A Gaussian process model is also developed for comparison. It is found that the conventional Gaussian approximation is inadequate in predicting the number of users that can be accommodated by an FH/MFSK system using the conventional receiver. Furthermore, for the cases evaluated, the independence model provides an excellent approximation to the correlated model. Additionally, a conditional Chernoff bound is presented for the more general case of frequency-hopping systems with multiple hops per symbol.

Yan, T.-Y.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Survey Data for Geomagnetic Field Modelling

The survey data discussed here are based on observations made relatively recently at points on land. A special subset of land survey data consists of those made at specially designated sites known as repeat stations. This class of data will be discussed in another part of this document (Barton, 1991b), so only the briefest of references will be made to repeat stations here. This discussion of 'ordinary' land survey data begins with a description of the spatial and temporal distributions of available survey data based on observations made since 1900. (The reason for this rather arbitrary choice of cut-off date is that this was the value used in the production of the computer file of magnetic survey data (land, sea, air, satellite, rocket) that is the primary source of data for geomagnetic main-field modeling). This is followed by a description of the various types of error to which these survey data are, or may be, subject and a discussion of the likely effects of such errors on field models produced from the data. Finally, there is a short section on the availability of geomagnetic survey data, which also describes how the data files are maintained.

Barraclough, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Analytical Assessment of Simultaneous Parallel Approach Feasibility from Total System Error

In a simultaneous paired approach to closely-spaced parallel runways, a pair of aircraft flies in close proximity on parallel approach paths. The aircraft pair must maintain a longitudinal separation within a range that avoids wake encounters and, if one of the aircraft blunders, avoids collision. Wake avoidance defines the rear gate of the longitudinal separation. The lead aircraft generates a wake vortex that, with the aid of crosswinds, can travel laterally onto the path of the trail aircraft. As runway separation decreases, the wake has less distance to traverse to reach the path of the trail aircraft. The total system error of each aircraft further reduces this distance. The total system error is often modeled as a probability distribution function. Therefore, Monte-Carlo simulations are a favored tool for assessing a "safe" rear-gate. However, safety for paired approaches typically requires that a catastrophic wake encounter be a rare one-in-a-billion event during normal operation. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation to assert this event rarity with confidence requires a massive number of runs. Such large runs do not lend themselves to rapid turn-around during the early stages of investigation when the goal is to eliminate the infeasible regions of the solution space and to perform trades among the independent variables in the operational concept. One can employ statistical analysis using simplified models more efficiently to narrow the solution space and identify promising trades for more in-depth investigation using Monte-Carlo simulations. These simple, analytical models not only have to address the uncertainty of the total system error but also the uncertainty in navigation sources used to alert an abort of the procedure. This paper presents a method for integrating total system error, procedure abort rates, avionics failures, and surveillance errors into a statistical analysis that identifies the likely feasible runway separations for simultaneous paired approaches.

Madden, Michael M.↗
DOE OSTI2013

The SCALE Verified, Archived Library of Inputs and Data - VALID

The Verified, Archived Library of Inputs and Data (VALID) at ORNL contains high quality, independently reviewed models and results that improve confidence in analysis. VALID is developed and maintained according to a procedure of the SCALE quality assurance (QA) plan. This paper reviews the origins of the procedure and its intended purpose, the philosophy of the procedure, some highlights of its implementation, and the future of the procedure and associated VALID library. The original focus of the procedure was the generation of high-quality models that could be archived at ORNL and applied to many studies. The review process associated with model generation minimized the chances of errors in these archived models. Subsequently, the scope of the library and procedure was expanded to provide high quality, reviewed sensitivity data files for deployment through the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments (IHECSBE). Sensitivity data files for approximately 400 such models are currently available. The VALID procedure and library continue fulfilling these multiple roles. The VALID procedure is based on the quality assurance principles of ISO 9001 and nuclear safety analysis. Some of these key concepts include independent generation and review of information, generation and review by qualified individuals, use of appropriate references for design data and documentation, and retrievability of the models, results, and documentation associated with entries in the library. Some highlights of the detailed procedure are discussed to provide background on its implementation and to indicate limitations of data extracted from VALID for use by the broader community. Specifically, external users of data generated within VALID must take responsibility for ensuring that the files are used within the QA framework of their organization and that use is appropriate. The future plans for the VALID library include expansion to include additional experiments from the IHECSBE, to include experiments from areas beyond criticality safety, such as reactor physics and shielding, and to include application models. In the future, external SCALE users may also obtain qualification under the VALID procedure and be involved in expanding the library. The VALID library provides a pathway for the criticality safety community to leverage modeling and analysis expertise at ORNL.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

A hybrid wavelet de-noising and Rank-Set Pair Analysis approach for forecasting hydro-meteorological time series

Highlights: • A new hybrid approach is proposed to improve forecasts of hydro-meteorological time series. • Rank-Set Pair Analysis combined with wavelet de-noising markedly improves forecasting accuracy. • The performance of the proposed approach proves best among its present competitors even when the extreme value occurs. Accurate, fast forecasting of hydro-meteorological time series is presently a major challenge in drought and flood mitigation. This paper proposes a hybrid approach, wavelet de-noising (WD) and Rank-Set Pair Analysis (RSPA), that takes full advantage of a combination of the two approaches to improve forecasts of hydro-meteorological time series. WD allows decomposition and reconstruction of a time series by the wavelet transform, and hence separation of the noise from the original series. RSPA, a more reliable and efficient version of Set Pair Analysis, is integrated with WD to form the hybrid WD-RSPA approach. Two types of hydro-meteorological data sets with different characteristics and different levels of human influences at some representative stations are used to illustrate the WD-RSPA approach. The approach is also compared to three other generic methods: the conventional Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) (BP-error Back Propagation, MLP-Multilayer Perceptron and RBF-Radial Basis Function), and RSPA alone. Nine error metrics are used to evaluate the model performance. Compared to three other generic methods, the results generated by WD-REPA model presented invariably smaller error measures which means the forecasting capability of the WD-REPA model is better than other models. The results show that WD-RSPA is accurate, feasible, and effective. In particular, WD-RSPA is found to be the best among the various generic methods compared in this paper, even when the extreme events are included within a time series.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

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