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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,801 records · Page 100

Microstructure based modeling of friction stir welded joint of dissimilar metals using crystal plasticity

We report the friction stir welding (FSW) process shows promising results in joining dissimilar metals which are otherwise almost impossible to join using traditional welding techniques. Being a new technique, the deformation and the failure mechanism of the joints made by the FSW process needs to be investigated. In this work, a joint between AZ31 Mg alloy and DP590 steel is modeled using phenomenological crystal plasticity formulation on the mesoscale in the form of a representative volume element (RVE). The interface of the two materials is modeled using a cohesive zone model. A parametric study has been performed to understand the effect of grain size and interface fracture toughness as well as strength on the mechanical performance of the joint. It was found that the grain size of AZ31 Mg alloy, as well as DP590 steel, has little effect on the overall joint performance. On the other hand, interface fracture toughness and strength have a significant impact on the mechanical properties of the joint

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Active and Passive Radiative Transfer Modeling of the Olympic Mountains Experiment

Sensor forward models are an important tool for interpreting remote sensing observations of geophysical phenomena. By implementing a three-dimensional framework, we can simulate and analyze observations from various sensors on disparate platforms. To demonstrate our model framework, we simulate observations from the Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX). The use of cloud model simulations allows us to understand sensor response to cloud ice, falling snow, and other processes and features, and the application of model tools to observations allows us to quantify precipitation.MIIST 3D Forward ModelThe Multi-Instrument Inverse Solver Testbed(MIIST) uses the Atmospheric Radiative TransferSimulator (ARTS) for solving the vector radiativetransfer (RT) equation in up to three spatialdimensions within a spherical geometry• Gas absorptiono Line-by-line calculationso Fast transmittance tables• Hydrometeor scattering solverso Discrete ordinateo RT4 (Evans, 1D)o Radar Single Scattering (1D or 3D)o Monte Carlo (3D)Scattering TablesHigh-fidelity hydrometeor scatteringtables are necessary for accurateand consistent forward modeling ofmulti-frequency observations• Requires full Stokes matriceso And absorption vector• Randomly oriented particleso Discrete Dipole Approximationo Characteristic Basis Function Method(coming soon)• Horizontally-oriented plateso Invariant Imbedding T-matrix MethodCloud Resolving SimulationsCloud resolving simulations (e.g.,NU-WRF) supply output consistentwith ARTS needs• Atmospheric Informationo Temperatureo Pressure / heighto Water vapor• Hydrometeor Profileso ARTS architecture ripe for explicit binmicrophysics• Examples use Morrison 2M schemeThe Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX)Validation for GPM of mid-latitudefrontal systems approaching nearcoastalmountains from the ocean• Large collection of ground-based andairborne sensorso Radarso Radiometerso In situ• Contemporaneous with RADEXo Two sets of radar at same frequenciesRadiometer Simulation (3 km NUWRF, 20151203, 15:00)2018.12.14 7Simulate 166 GHz polarizationdifference• Corresponds to the presence of aligned icecrystals• Look at trends for both simulations andobservations• Simulations can tolerate lower resolutiono Larger domainSimulations from Observations: OLYMPEXSimulate sensor response usinggeophysical retrievals as input• Single frequency radar retrievals• Multiple scattering enhancementapparent at W band• Spatially dependent phenomenonModeling Application: 1D Retrievals03 December 2015• DC-8 and ER-2 flightso Focus on APR-3 (DC-8)• Citationo Stacked microphysics legso Qualitative comparisonso Range of frozen habitso Presence of supercooledliquid cloudsResults• Retrievals match probeso Good qualitative match• Bands of increasedreflectivity correspond tolarge Dm and highaggregate fraction• Significant amounts ofsupercooled liquid water

Adams, Ian S.↗

Predictive dynamic wetting, fluid–structure interaction simulations for braze run-out

Brazing and soldering are metallurgical joining techniques that use a wetting molten metal to create a joint between two faying surfaces. Here, the quality of the brazing process depends strongly on the wetting properties of the molten filler metal, namely the surface tension and contact angle, and the resulting joint can be susceptible to various defects, such as run-out and underfill, if the material properties or joining conditions are not suitable. In this work, we implement a finite element simulation to predict the formation of such defects in braze processes. This model incorporates both fluid–structure interaction through an arbitrary Eulerian–Lagrangian technique and free surface wetting through conformal decomposition finite element modeling. Upon validating our numerical simulations against experimental run-out studies on a silver-Kovar system, we then use the model to predict run-out and underfill in systems with variable surface tension, contact angles, and applied pressure. Finally, we consider variable joint/surface geometries and show how different geometrical configurations can help to mitigate run-out. This work aims to understand how brazing defects arise and validate a coupled wetting and fluid–structure interaction simulation that can be used for other industrial problems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Heat Pump Water Heater Using Wrapped-Tank Microchannel Condenser Coil for Charge Reduction – FY19 1st Quarter (Regular) Milestone Report: Development of Wrapped-Tank Condenser Model (Round Tube and Microchannel), Coupled with Water Tank Model

We recently grew the DOE/HPDM model library to enhance its heat pump water heater (HPWH) design and simulation capability. The new additions include wrapped-tank round tube coil, microchannel coil and a one-dimensional stratified water tank. A wrapped-tank condenser coil has strong coupling with a stratified water tank, which leads HPWH simulation a transient process. The new one-dimensional stratified water tank model is an improvement to the open-source EnergyPlus water tank model, by introducing a calibration factor to account for bulk mixing effect due to water draws and circulations, etc. The wrapped-tank condenser coil model, using a segment-to-segment modeling approach to simulate round tubes or microchannel ports. The heat exchanger models can accept arbitrary refrigerant types, e.g. HFCs, HFOs, natural refrigerants like CO 2 and propane, etc.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development of a Water Recovery System Resource Tracking Model

A simulation model has been developed to track water resources in an exploration vehicle using Regenerative Life Support (RLS) systems. The Resource Tracking Model (RTM) integrates the functions of all the vehicle components that affect the processing and recovery of water during simulated missions. The approach used in developing the RTM enables its use as part of a complete vehicle simulation for real time mission studies. Performance data for the components in the RTM is focused on water processing. The data provided to the model has been based on the most recent information available regarding the technology of the component. This paper will describe the process of defining the RLS system to be modeled, the way the modeling environment was selected, and how the model has been implemented. Results showing how the RLS components exchange water are provided in a set of test cases.

Chambliss, Joe↗

The MPACT 2020 Milestone: Safeguards and Security by Design of Future Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities.

The Materials Protection, Accounting, and Control Technologies (MPACT) campaign, within the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, has developed a Virtual Facility Distributed Test Bed for safeguards and security design for future nuclear fuel cycle facilities. The purpose of the Virtual Test Bed is to bring together experimental and modeling capabilities across the U.S. national laboratory and university complex to provide a one-stop-shop for advanced Safeguards and Security by Design (SSBD). Experimental testing alone of safeguards and security technologies would be cost prohibitive, but testbeds and laboratory processing facilities with safeguards measurement opportunities, coupled with modeling and simulation, provide the ability to generate modern, efficient safeguards and security systems for new facilities. This Virtual Test Bed concept has been demonstrated using a generic electrochemical reprocessing facility as an example, but the concept can be extended to other facilities. While much of the recent work in the MPACT program has focused on electrochemical safeguards and security technologies, the laboratory capabilities have been applied to other facilities in the past (including aqueous reprocessing, fuel fabrication, and molten salt reactors as examples). This paper provides an overview of the Virtual Test Bed concept, a description of the design process, and a baseline safeguards and security design for the example facility. Parallel papers in this issue go into more detail on the various technologies, experimental testing, modeling capabilities, and performance testing.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Multi-physics Modeling of Radiative Heat Transfer and Fluid Flow for the Reactor Cavity Cooling System

High-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) are notable for their high thermal efficiency and potential for combined heat and power applications. These reactors are particularly appealing due to their advanced passive safety features. HTGRs utilize passive safety systems that function without requiring active components like pumps or compressors during emergencies. These reactor designs depend on a Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) to manage decay heat removal from the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) during accident conditions. The RCCS consists of vertical rectangular channels known as "risers" or riser ducts positioned around the RPV. These risers receive heat from the RPV through both convective and radiative heat transfer mechanisms. Understanding the interplay of multiple physical phenomena, such as fluid dynamics, heat transfer, and neutron interactions, is essential for the effective design and operation of nuclear reactors, particularly for systems like the RCCS. Multi-physics simulations provide a comprehensive approach to studying these interactions, offering detailed insights and enhancing accuracy. They are especially important in RCCS designs, where the interaction between radiative and convective heat transfer can significantly impact system performance. By leveraging multi-physics simulations, complex reactor behaviors can be modeled without compromising the fidelity of the underlying physical processes. This work aims to establish a robust methodology for coupling multiple physical processes in an air-cooled RCCS. By focusing on validating this multi-physics approach, the study involves designing test cases that simulate various conditions to verify the numerical models employed. The outcomes of this research will provide critical insights for accurately modeling and optimizing complex nuclear systems like the RCCS.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Sensor-based fault diagnosis in a flight expert system

A prototype of a knowledge-based flight expert system (FLES) has been developed to assist airplane pilots in monitoring, analyzing, and diagnosing faults and to provide support in reducing the pilot's own mistakes. A sensor simulation model has been developed to provide FLES with the airplane status information during the diagnostic process. The simulator is based partly on the Advanced Concept System (ACS), a future-generation airplane, and partly on the Boeing 737, an existing airplane. The architecture of FLES contains several subsystems. One of the major subsystems performs fault diagnosis in the electrical system of the ACS. This paper describes the mechanism and functionality of the automatic diagnosis performed in this expert system.

Ali, M.↗

A flight expert system (FLES) for on-board fault monitoring and diagnosis

The increasing complexity of modern aircraft creates a need for a larger number of caution and warning devices. But more alerts require more memorization and higher workloads for the pilot and tend to induce a higher probability of errors. Therefore, an architecture for a flight expert system (FLES) is developed to assist pilots in monitoring, diagnosing and recovering from in-flight faults. A prototype of FLES has been implemented. A sensor simulation model was developed and employed to provide FLES with airplane status information during the diagnostic process. The simulator is based on the Lockheed Advanced Concept System (ACS), a future generation airplane, and on the Boeing 737. A distinction between two types of faults, maladjustments and malfunctions, has led to two approaches to fault diagnosis. These approaches are evident in two FLES subsystems: the flight phase monitor and the sensor interrupt handler. The specific problem addressed in these subsystems has been that of integrating information received from multiple sensors with domain knowledge in order to access abnormal situations during airplane flight. Malfunctions and maladjustments are handled separately, diagnosed using domain knowledge.

Ali, Moonis↗

Axial Tensile Failure Analysis of SiC{sub f}/Ti Composite Based on Continuum Cohesive Zone Model

In this paper, the failure behavior of SiC fiber-reinforced Ti-6Al-4V matrix composite (SiC{sub f}/Ti) under longitudinal loads was studied experimentally and theoretically. Experimental results show that the interface of SiC{sub f}/Ti composite is continuous and integral. Through SEM observations, it was found that transverse matrix cracks initiated from the debonding region of the interface. A three-dimensional representative volume element was developed to simulate the failure process of SiC{sub f}/Ti-6Al-4V composite. A continuum cohesive zone model is employed to describe the debonding behavior at the interface, compared with a discrete one. More accurate simulated results were obtained by a continuum cohesive zone model, corresponding to experimental results. The transverse cracking behavior of the matrix was simulated. The stress–strain curves predicted by the continuum cohesive zone model show a good agreement with the experimental results. The fiber volume fraction, interface strength and interface toughness are investigated to exhibit their influences upon the longitudinal mechanical characteristics of SiC{sub f}/Ti-6Al-4V composite.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Modelling high data rate communication network access protocol

Modeling of high data rate communication systems is different from the low data rate systems. Three simulations were built during the development phase of Carrier Sensed Multiple Access/Ring Network (CSMA/RN) modeling. The first was a model using SIMCRIPT based upon the determination and processing of each event at each node. The second simulation was developed in C based upon isolating the distinct object that can be identified as the ring, the message, the node, and the set of critical events. The third model further identified the basic network functionality by creating a single object, the node which includes the set of critical events which occur at the node. The ring structure is implicit in the node structure. This model was also built in C. Each model is discussed and their features compared. It should be stated that the language used was mainly selected by the model developer because of his past familiarity. Further the models were not built with the intent to compare either structure or language but because the complexity of the problem and initial results contained obvious errors, so alternative models were built to isolate, determine, and correct programming and modeling errors. The CSMA/RN protocol is discussed in sufficient detail to understand modeling complexities. Each model is described along with its features and problems. The models are compared and concluding observations and remarks are presented.

Khanna, S.↗

A model for testing centerfinding algorithms for automated optical navigation

An efficient software simulation of the imaging process for optical navigation is presented, illustrating results using simple examples. The problems of image definition and optical system modeling, including ideal image containing features and realistic models of optical filtering performed by the entire camera system, are examined. A digital signal processing technique is applied to the problem of developing methods of automated optical navigation and the subsequent mathematical formulation is presented. Specific objectives such as an analysis of the effects of camera defocusing on centerfinding of planar targets, addition of noise filtering to the algorithm, and implementation of multiple frame capability were investigated.

Griffin, M. D.↗

Development of a new model for vibration-dissociation coupling in nitrogen

A new model for vibration-dissociation coupling is derived using knowledge obtained from a simulation of the vibrational relaxation of heated nitrogen by collisional processes. This bilevel model is based on the assumption that nitrogen can be represented by two molecular species. The vibrational energy relaxation is represented by a modified form of the Landau-Teller equation. The effects of the bilevel model on a typical hypervelocity flowfield computation are examined and compared to the Park TTv model. Specifically, it is found that the bilevel model exhibits a decreased dissociation rate. This is believed to be due to the inhibition of dissociation by nonequilibrium vibrational relaxation.

Landrum, D. B.↗

The effects of spatial and temporal resolution of gridded meteorological forcing on watershed hydrological responses

Abstract. Meteorological forcing plays a critical role in accurately simulating the watershed hydrological cycle. With the advancement of high-performance computing and the development of integrated watershed models, simulating the watershed hydrological cycle at high temporal (hourly to daily) and spatial resolution (tens of meters) has become efficient and computationally affordable. These hyperresolution watershed models require high resolution of meteorological forcing as model input to ensure the fidelity and accuracy of simulated responses. In this study, we utilized the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), an integrated watershed model, to simulate surface and subsurface flow and land surface processes using unstructured meshes at the Coal Creek Watershed near Crested Butte (Colorado). We compared simulated watershed hydrologic responses including streamflow and distributed variables such as evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent (SWE), and groundwater table driven by three publicly available, gridded meteorological forcings (GMFs) – Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries (Daymet), the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). By comparing various spatial resolutions (ranging from 400 m to 4 km) of PRISM, the simulated streamflow only becomes marginally worse when spatial resolution of meteorological forcing is coarsened to 4 km (or 30 % of the watershed area). However, the 4 km-resolution has much worse performance than finer resolution in spatially distributed variables such as SWE. Using the temporally disaggregated PRISM, we compared models forced by different temporal resolutions (hourly to daily), and sub-daily resolution preserves the dynamic watershed responses (e.g., diurnal fluctuation of streamflow) that are absent in results forced by daily resolution. Conversely, the simulated streamflow shows better performance using daily resolution compared to that using sub-daily resolution. Our findings suggest that the choice of GMF and its spatiotemporal resolution depends on the quantity of interest and its spatial and temporal scale, which may have important implications for model calibration and watershed management decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Limitations in Representation of Physical Processes Prevents Successful Simulation of PM2.5 During KORUS-AQ

High levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in East Asia often exceed local air quality standards. Observations from the Korea United States-Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) field campaign in May and June 2016 showed that development of extreme pollution (haze) occurred through a combination of long-range transport and favorable meteorological conditions that enhanced local production of PM2.5. Atmospheric models often have difficulty simulating PM2.5 chemical composition during haze, which is of concern for the development of successful control measures. We use observations from KORUS-AQ to examine the ability of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to simulate PM2.5 composition throughout the campaign and identify the mechanisms driving the pollution event. At the surface, the model underestimates sulfate by -64% but overestimates nitrate by +36%. The largest underestimate in sulfate occurs during the pollution event, where models typically struggle to generate elevated sulfate concentrations due to missing heterogeneous chemistry in aerosol liquid water in the polluted boundary layer. Hourly surface observations show that the model nitrate bias is driven by an overestimation of the nighttime peak. In the model, nitrate formation is limited by the supply of nitric acid, which is biased by +100% against aircraft observations. We hypothesize that this is due to a large missing sink, which we implement here as a factor of five increase in dry deposition. We show that the resulting increased deposition velocity is consistent with observations of total nitrate as a function of photochemical age. The model does not account for factors such as the urban heat island effect or the heterogeneity of the built-up urban landscape resulting in insufficient model turbulence and surface area over the study area that likely results in insufficient dry deposition. Other species such as NH3 could be similarly affected but were not measured during the campaign. Nighttime production of nitrate is driven by NO2 hydrolysis in the model, while observations show that unexpectedly elevated nighttime ozone (not present in the model) should result in N2O5 hydrolysis as the primary pathway. The model is unable to represent nighttime ozone due to an overly rapid collapse of the afternoon mixed layer and excessive titration by NO. We attribute this to missing nighttime heating driving deeper nocturnal mixing that would be expected to occur in a city like Seoul. This urban heating is not considered in air quality models run at large enough scales to treat both local chemistry and long-range transport. Key model failures in simulating nitrate, mainly overestimated daytime nitric acid, incorrect representation of nighttime chemistry, and an overly shallow and insufficiently turbulent nighttime mixed layer, exacerbate the model’s inability to simulate the buildup of PM2.5 during haze pollution. To address the underestimate in sulfate most evident during the haze event, heterogeneous aerosol uptake of SO2 is added to the model which previously only considered aqueous production of sulfate from SO2 in cloud water. Implementing a simple parameterization of this chemistry improves the model abundance of sulfate but degrades the SO2 simulation implying that emissions are underestimated. We find that improving model simulations of sulfate has direct relevance to determining local vs. transboundary contributions to PM2.5. During the haze pollution event, the inclusion of heterogeneous aerosol uptake of SO2 decreases the fraction of PM2.5 attributable to long-range transport from 66% to 54%. Locally-produced sulfate increased from 1% to 25% of locally-produced PM2.5, implying that local emissions controls would have a larger effect than previously thought. However, this additional uptake of SO2 is coupled to the model nitrate prediction which affects the aerosol liquid water abundance and chemistry driving sulfate-nitrate-ammonium partitioning. An additional simulation of the haze pollution with heterogeneous uptake of SO2 to aerosol and simple improvements to the model nitrate simulation results in 30% less sulfate due to 40% less nitrate and aerosol water, and results in an underestimate of sulfate during the haze event. Future studies need to better consider the impact of model physical processes such as dry deposition and nighttime boundary layer mixing on the simulation of nitrate and the effect of improved nitrate simulations on the overall simulation of secondary inorganic aerosol (sulfate+nitrate+ammonium) in East Asia. Foreign emissions are rapidly changing, increasing the need to understand the impact of local emissions on PM2.5 in South Korea to ensure continued air quality improvements.

Katherine R. Travis↗

Correlated prompt fission data in transport simulations

Detailed information on the fission process can be inferred from the observation, modeling and theoretical understanding of prompt fission neutron and γ-ray observables. Beyond simple average quantities, the study of distributions and correlations in prompt data, e.g., multiplicity-dependent neutron and γ-ray spectra, angular distributions of the emitted particles, n -n, n - γ, and γ - γ correlations, can place stringent constraints on fission models and parameters that would otherwise be free to be tuned separately to represent individual fission observables. The FREYA and CGMF codes have been developed to follow the sequential emissions of prompt neutrons and γ rays from the initial excited fission fragments produced right after scission. Both codes implement Monte Carlo techniques to sample initial fission fragment configurations in mass, charge and kinetic energy and sample probabilities of neutron and γ emission at each stage of the decay. This approach naturally leads to using simple but powerful statistical techniques to infer distributions and correlations among many observables and model parameters. The comparison of model calculations with experimental data provides a rich arena for testing various nuclear physics models such as those related to the nuclear structure and level densities of neutron-rich nuclei, the γ-ray strength functions of dipole and quadrupole transitions, the mechanism for dividing the excitation energy between the two nascent fragments near scission, and the mechanisms behind the production of angular momentum in the fragments, etc. Beyond the obvious interest from a fundamental physics point of view, such studies are also important for addressing data needs in various nuclear applications. The inclusion of the FREYA and CGMF codes into the MCNP6.2 and MCNPX - PoliMi transport codes, for instance, provides a new and powerful tool to simulate correlated fission events in neutron transport calculations important in nonproliferation, safeguards, nuclear energy, and defense programs. Here, this review provides an overview of the topic, starting from theoretical considerations of the fission process, with a focus on correlated signatures. It then explores the status of experimental correlated fission data and current efforts to address some of the known shortcomings. Numerical simulations employing the FREYA and CGMF codes are compared to experimental data for a wide range of correlated fission quantities. The inclusion of those codes into the MCNP6.2 and MCNPX - PoliMi transport codes is described and discussed in the context of relevant applications. The accuracy of the model predictions and their sensitivity to model assumptions and input parameters are discussed. Lastly, a series of important experimental and theoretical questions that remain unanswered are presented, suggesting a renewed effort to address these shortcomings.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A New Snow Module Improves Predictions of the Isotope-Enabled MAIDENiso Forest Growth Model

The representation of snow processes in forest growth models is necessary to accurately predict the hydrological cycle in boreal ecosystems and the isotopic signature of soil water extracted by trees, photosynthates and tree-ring cellulose. Yet, most process-based models do not include a snow module; consequently, their simulations may be biased in cold environments. Here, we modified the MAIDENiso model to incorporate a new snow module that simulates snow accumulation, melting and sublimation, as well as thermal exchanges driving freezing and thawing of the snow and the soil. We tested these implementations in two sites in eastern and western Canada for black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) and white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) forests, respectively. The new snow module improves the skills of the model to predict components of the hydrological cycle. The MAIDENiso model is now able to reproduce the spring discharge peak and to simulate stable oxygen isotopes in tree-ring cellulose more realistically than in the original snow-free version of the model. The new implementation also results in simulations with a higher contribution from the source water on the oxygen isotopic composition of the simulated cellulose, leading to more accurate estimates of cellulose isotopic composition. Future work may include the development of inverse modelling with this new version of MAIDENiso to produce robust reconstructions of the hydrological cycle and isotope processes in cold environments.

Snow processes↗

Climate change impact on residual contaminants under sustainable remediation

This study investigates the potential impact of climate change on residual contaminants in vadose zones and groundwater. We assume that the effect of climate changes can be represented by perturbations in the natural recharge through the aquifer system. We perform numerical modeling of unsaturated/saturated flow and transport and consider different performance metrics: contaminant concentrations at observation wells and contaminant export at the site's boundary. We evaluate the effect of increasing and decreasing recharge as well as the impact of potential failure of surface capping structures employed to immobilize vadose zone contaminants. Our approach is demonstrated in a real case study by simulating transport of non-reactive radioactive tritium at the U.S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site. Results show that recharge changes significantly affect well concentrations: after an initial slight dilution we identify a significant concentration increase at different observation wells some years after the recharge increase and/or the cap failure, as a consequence of contaminants' mobilization. This effect is generally emphasized and occurs earlier as the recharge increases. Under decreased aquifers' recharge the concentration could slightly increase for some years, due to a decrease of dilution, depending on the magnitude of the negative recharge shift. We identify trigger levels of recharge above which the concentration/export breakthrough curves and the time of exceedance of the Maximum Contaminant Level for tritium are remarkably affected. Moreover, we observe that the contaminant export at the control plane, identified as the risk pathway to the downgradient population, may only be minimally affected by shifts in the natural recharge regime, except for some extreme cases. We conclude that more frequent sampling and in-situ monitoring near the source zone should be adopted to better explain concentrations' anomalies under changing climatic conditions. Moreover, the maintenance of the cap is critical not only to sequester residual contaminants in the vadose zone, but also to reduce the uncertainty associated with future precipitation changes. Finally, realistic flow and transport simulations achieved through proper calibration processes, rather than conservative modeling, should be adopted to identify non-trivial trade-offs which enable better allocation of resources towards reducing uncertainty in decision making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

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