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Near-Term Reliability and Resilience (NTRR) (Final Report)

The Near-Term Reliability and Resiliency (NTRR) was awarded in December 2020 as an inter-lab project to examine the reliability and resilience of the electricity grid and natural gas transportation availability. The project builds on studies conducted by The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and other non-governmental research and operational focused on reliability and resilience analyses challenges. The research was conceived to address near-term scenarios (within 10 years), when many local and regional policy transitions could begin to impact grid reliability, resilience, and supporting infrastructure availability. To integrate the natural gas interdependency, the team began with the generating capacity and demand projections from the 2020 NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment and the Bulk Electric System (BES) transmission topologies defined in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Anchor Data Set, Eastern Interconnection Reliability Assessment Group Multi-Regional Modeling Working Group (ERAG/MMWG) Data Set, the team calculated baseline regional power sector gas demands from present electricity delivery year through the end of delivery year 2030/31 by applying security constrained economic dispatch. This demand was compiled along with demand projections for regional residential, commercial, and industrial natural gas demands from the most recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case into Deloitte’s MarketBuilder® North American Gas Model. Through the application of these demands, MarketBuilder® was projected the topology of natural gas flows in the natural gas pipeline network across the interconnected North American system along with regional natural gas prices that may be seen by market participants in future years Additionally, contingencies and sensitivities focused on the built models of the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and Western Interconnection (WI). They address challenges from the following with the outcomes being an identification of performance under the extreme conditions and an identification of potential grid weaknesses that should be addressed to mitigate the reduced performance and improve the resilience and reliability of the specific regions as well as the National Grid: • Weather events including extreme heat, extreme cold, high wind, no wind, wind and solar forecasting errors, and wildfires. • Gas availability, factoring in supply disruption (contractual and physical), seasonal availability constraints, and infrastructure limitations; and • Transmission availability and congestion.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Portable Parallel Algorithms and Frameworks for Exascale Graph Analytics

Graphs (or networks) are a tool used to model the interactions among various entities. Efficiently processing large graphs has recently attracted significant attention due to the applications of graphs in various domains, such as biology, chemistry, and cyber-security. Analyzing the structure and properties of these graphs is an important component of many scientific computing pipelines. With the explosion in the volume of data, graphs have become very large and can contain hundreds of billions of vertices and trillions of edges. Therefore, it is crucial to develop high-performance methods to enable graph analysis to be done quickly and energy-efficiently. Furthermore, these solutions should be highly parallel in order to take advantage of modern parallel machines. However, designing efficient solutions is not enough. With the wide variety of computing environments available, each with different programmability and performance characteristics, it is necessary to develop solutions that are portable in terms of both performance (i.e., provide theoretical guarantees) and programmability (i.e., provide high level abstractions).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Organizing Diverse, Distributed Project Information

SemanticOrganizer is a software application designed to organize and integrate information generated within a distributed organization or as part of a project that involves multiple, geographically dispersed collaborators. SemanticOrganizer incorporates the capabilities of database storage, document sharing, hypermedia navigation, and semantic-interlinking into a system that can be customized to satisfy the specific information-management needs of different user communities. The program provides a centralized repository of information that is both secure and accessible to project collaborators via the World Wide Web. SemanticOrganizer's repository can be used to collect diverse information (including forms, documents, notes, data, spreadsheets, images, and sounds) from computers at collaborators work sites. The program organizes the information using a unique network-structured conceptual framework, wherein each node represents a data record that contains not only the original information but also metadata (in effect, standardized data that characterize the information). Links among nodes express semantic relationships among the data records. The program features a Web interface through which users enter, interlink, and/or search for information in the repository. By use of this repository, the collaborators have immediate access to the most recent project information, as well as to archived information. A key advantage to SemanticOrganizer is its ability to interlink information together in a natural fashion using customized terminology and concepts that are familiar to a user community.

Keller, Richard M.↗

Methods for Improving Long-Range Wireless Communication Between Extreme Terrain Vehicles

Axel is an extreme terrain, two-wheeled rover designed to traverse rocky surface and sub-surface landscapes in order to conduct remote science experiments in hard-to-reach locations. The rover's design meets many requirements for a mobile research platform capable of reaching water seeps on Martian cliff sides. Axel was developed by the Mobility and Robotic Systems section at the Caltech Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Unique design criteria associated with extreme terrain mobility led to a unique rover solution, consisting of a central module, which provides long-term energy storage and space for large-scale science payloads, and two detachable Axels that can detach and explore extreme terrain locations that are inaccessible to conventional rovers. The envisioned mission could involve a four-wheeled configuration of Axel called 'DuAxel' that is able to traverse the benign, flattened terrain of a landing site and approach the edge of the targeted crater or cave where it would deploy anchoring legs and detach one of the Axel rovers [1]. A tether provides a secure link between the Axel rover and the central module, acting as an anchor to allow Axel to descend along steep crater walls to collect data from the scientifically relevant sites along the water seeps or crater ledges. After completing its scientific mission Axel would hoist itself up to the central module and dock autonomously (using its on-board stereo cameras), allowing the once-again recombined DuAxel to travel to another location to repeat data collection.

wireless communication↗

Multi-Level Impacts of Extreme Climate-Related Events on Food Supply Chain: Idaho Potato's Case Study

Background: The world is experiencing frequent extreme weather events like droughts, floods, snowstorms, and shifting of seasons due to climate change. Increasing frequencies and severity of these extreme weather events threaten food security because agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperature reduces overall yields of the desirable crops but proliferates weeds and harmful pests. Current data shows that every year U.S. farmers spend more than 11 billion USD to fight weeds and this number is expected to rise in the coming years due to climate change. Due to droughts, the water required for irrigation is becoming scarcer. Since many areas are becoming climatically unusable for crop production, the amount of farmland area is shrinking rapidly. In addition, changes in precipitation patterns are causing crop failures and negatively impacting expected yields. In this study, we investigated how different extreme climate events impact different stages of a food supply chain. Approach: As a case study, we chose Idaho’s potato supply chain (SC). Idaho is the top potato producing state in the U.S. and contributes around 30% of the nation’s potato production. Using the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach, we developed a multi-echelon potato supply chain computer simulation model with six types of agents – seed producers, farmers, shippers, processors, retailers, and logistics companies. In addition to the baseline scenario, we developed two additional climate-related disruption events – drought and snowstorm. We investigated how each of these disruption events impacts different stakeholders across the supply chain in terms of revenue and some other key performance metrics such as lead time, food waste, number of delayed orders, and order fulfillment rate. Results: Extreme climate events not only impact the growers but there is also cascading ripple effects downstream of the supply chain. The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other food and agricultural SC to understand the vulnerabilities of the different links. The findings would potentially help to adopt new policies for the well-being of the overall SC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cyber-Physical Smart Light Control System Integration with Smart Grid using Zigbee

This paper presents a hardware-in-the-loop cyber-physical system architecture design to monitor and control smart lights connected to the active distribution grid. The architecture uses Zigbee-based (IEEE 802.15.4) wireless sensor networks and publish-subscribe architecture to exchange monitoring and control signals between smart-light actuators (SLAs) and a smart-light central controller (SLCC). Each SLA integrated into a smart light consists of a Zigbee-based endpoint module to send and receive signals to and from the SLCC. The SLCC consists of a Zigbee-based coordinator module, which further exchanges the monitoring and control signals with the active distribution management system over the TCP/IP communication network. The monitoring signals from the SLAs include light status, brightness level, voltage, current, and power data, whereas, the control signals to the SLAs include light intensity, turn ON, turn OFF, standby, and default settings. We have used our existing hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) cyber-physical system (CPS) security SCADA testbed to process signals received from the SLCC and respond suitable control signals based on the smart light schedule requirements, system operation, and active distribution grid dynamic characteristics. We have integrated the proposed cyber-physical smart light control system (CPSLCS) testbed to our existing HIL CPS SCADA testbed. We use the integrated testbed to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithm by real-time performance and latency between the SLCC and SLAs. The experiments demonstrated significant results by 100% realtime performance and low latency while exchanging data between the SLCC and SLAs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Calendar Year 2020 Underground Test Area Annual Sampling Report Nevada National Security Site, Nevada (Rev. 1)

This CY 2020 annual sampling report presents the background of the FFACO and Sampling Plan implementation, sampling and analysis methods, sampling results, quality assurance and quality control, regulatory requirements, and analytical data for the CY 2020. Appendix A presents data from samples collected in CY 2020 from the YF/CM CAU and the RM/SM CAU. This sampling was conducted in support of the Sampling Plan at these CAUs prior to approval of the final CRs. Appendix B presents the well completion diagrams for the wells sampled in CY 2020. Appendix C presents data from samples collected in CY 2019. These results were not reported in the previous sampling report because they were not available from the specialized laboratories at the time of the report’s publication.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stem CO2 Efflux measurements from Manaus, Brazil, 2017

This data was collected in order to test the effects of temperatures on the autotrophic respiratory process in the tropics. This data package contains raw real-time stem CO2 efflux files during the night and day from 3 different species near the K34 in Manaus during the day and the night. Raw and derived data files are included in the format of .csv and .xlsx and information about the canopy trees and temperatures recorded can be found in the field event log using microsoft excel. The data was collected from three canopy dominant trees in the central Amazon near the K34 tower. Real-time stem CO2 efflux was determined using a Li7000 gas analyzer configured in differential mode and connected to a dynamic stem chamber secured to the stem at breast height using straps to generate a reasonable seal. Ambient air was continuously pumped into the stem chamber and CO2 concentrations of the air entering and exiting the chamber were continuously monitored. CO2 efflux was calculated based on the CO2 concentration difference between ambient and stem chambers, the flow rate of air through the chamber, and the area of the enclosed stem. Additional auxiliary data, including sap flow and crown temperature were also measured. No data processing or QA/QC was done on the raw data packages.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

System-Level Integration of Modular Language Models for Real-Time Risk Assessment in Third-Party Risk Management Systems

Large enterprises typically rely on dedicated teams to govern and implement security measures throughout their supply chains, ensuring compliance with enterprise security procedures. There is a significant reliance on Third-Party Risk Management (TPRM) platforms, which often require complete, highly structured information from potential vendors. The review and compliance assurance processes are time- and labor intensive, often requiring several rounds of review between the supply chain security risk management teams, business users, and potential vendors, leading to delays in the supply chain processing and consumer experience. Significant challenges in the risk management paradigm include handling unstructured data in various formats and providing real-time feedback to users to reduce the required review time. This paper presents a novel solution to these challenges. A modular multi-step system architecture is proposed using advances in language processing, specifically for unstructured responses and provides real-time feedback (i.e., 3 seconds) so that users can improve their responses before the TPSRM team review. This novel system architecture will increase information accuracy and significantly reduce time and labor during the review process.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Architecture and Implementation of OpenPET Firmware and Embedded Software

OpenPET is an open source, modular, extendible, and high-performance platform suitable for multi-channel data acquisition and analysis. Due to the versatility of the hardware, firmware, and software architectures, the platform is capable of interfacing with a wide variety of detector modules not only in medical imaging but also in homeland security applications. Analog signals from radiation detectors share similar characteristics-a pulse whose area is proportional to the deposited energy and whose leading edge is used to extract a timing signal. As a result, a generic design method of the platform is adopted for the hardware, firmware, and software architectures and implementations. The analog front-end is hosted on a module called a Detector Board, where each board can filter, combine, timestamp, and process multiple channels independently. The processed data is formatted and sent through a backplane bus to a module called Support Board, where 1 Support Board can host up to eight Detector Board modules. The data in the Support Board, coming from 8 Detector Board modules, can be aggregated or correlated (if needed) depending on the algorithm implemented or runtime mode selected. It is then sent out to a computer workstation for further processing. The number of channels (detector modules), to be processed, mandates the overall OpenPET System Configuration, which is designed to handle up to 1,024 channels using 16-channel Detector Boards in the Standard System Configuration and 16,384 channels using 32-channel Detector Boards in the Large System Configuration.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Autonomous Tools for Attack Surface Reduction (Final Report)

The electric power grid is a complex critical infrastructure that forms the lifeline of modern society, and its secure and reliable operation is of paramount importance to national security and economic wellbeing. However, recent findings documented in authoritative sources indicate the threat of cyber-based attacks growing in numbers and sophistication. However, securing the grid against stealthy cyberattacks is a challenging task due to legacy nature of the infrastructure coupled with dynamic nature of threat landscape and ever-growing sophistication of the adversaries. Additionally, the grid’s attack surface continues to grow with the increased dependence on digital communications and control that now extends to each consumer through smart meters and distributed energy resources. Unfortunately, this expansive surface increases the grid’s vulnerability and further exposes critical control systems in both substations and control centers. To respond to this emerging need, we had successfully assembled an interdisciplinary team with academic- industry partnership to successfully conduct research, development, evaluation, demonstration, and commercialization of attack surface reduction tools, whose goal was to significantly reduce the cyber attack surface in the North American power grid. Our proposed project was a synergistic collaborative effort leveraging the synergistic expertise of the team members across power systems, cyber security and CPS security, testbeds, field deployments and demonstration, and successful commercialization. The following are the specific tasks that have been successfully completed two phases (2016-2020). Phase I: Task 1: Developed and implemented a robust Project Management and Data Management Plan, coupled with a well thought out Risk Mitigation Plan. Task 2.1: Developed a comprehensive framework that continually assesses and autonomously reduces the attack surface for the power grid control environment spanning across substations, control center and the SCADA network to significantly reduce the risks of cyber attacks. Task 2.2: Developed attack surface analysis techniques, metrics, and tools that assess the attack surface at multiple levels including the control center, substations, and the SCADA network. Task 2.3: Developed attack surface reduction techniques and tools that dynamically reduce attack surface and hence increase attacker’s cost without interfering in the critical functions of the system. Task 2.4: Prototyped, implemented, and quantitatively evaluated/validated the techniques and tools on a realistic industrial CPS security testbed environment by leveraging the unique resources of the team. Task 3: Developed Commercialization plan to transition the developed tools into power system industry stakeholders for a broader adoption by leveraging the expertise of our industrial members. Phase II: Task 4: Successfully completed field demonstration, verification, and evaluation of the effectiveness of the attack surface analysis and reduction techniques on a realistic utility testbed environment. This also involved the development of realistic scenarios, sound metrics, data sets, evaluation criteria, and documentation. Technology integration & Field demonstration: The project had significantly advanced the state-of-the-art research and practice in improving the cybersecurity of our nation’s power grid infrastructure against cyber threats. In particular, the proposed, designed, and deployed attack surface analysis and reduction algorithms and tools have contributed to significantly reducing the exposure and risk of the devices, substations, and the integrated SCADA/EMS/ DMS grid environment to cyber threat. Strong demonstration and evaluation techniques have verified the feasibility of the developed techniques on realistic cyber-physical testbeds and utility partner's real grid environment, and collaborative research and evaluation of attack surface reduction techniques (for wide-are monitoring and control) within a vendor (GE) EMS platform. The Attack Host Analyzer (AHA) tool that was developed through this project was made available through GitHub.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Earth System Grid Federation : an Open Infrastructure for Access to Distributed Geospatial Data

The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) is a multi-agency, international collaboration that aims at developing the software infrastructure needed to facilitate and empower the study of climate change on a global scale. The ESGF's architecture employs a system of geographically distributed peer nodes, which are independently administered yet united by the adoption of common federation protocols and application programming interfaces (APIs). The cornerstones of its interoperability are the peer-to-peer messaging that is continuously exchanged among all nodes in the federation; a shared architecture and API for search and discovery; and a security infrastructure based on industry standards (OpenID, SSL, GSI and SAML). The ESGF software is developed collaboratively across institutional boundaries and made available to the community as open source. It has now been adopted by multiple Earth science projects and allows access to petabytes of geophysical data, including the entire model output used for the next international assessment report on climate change (IPCC-AR5) and a suite of satellite observations (obs4MIPs) and reanalysis data sets (ANA4MIPs).

search,↗

Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data in a Spatially Explicit Price Model

Famine early warning organizations use data from multiple disciplines to assess food insecurity of communities and regions in less-developed parts of the World. In this paper we integrate several indicators that are available to enhance the information for preparation for and responses to food security emergencies. The assessment uses a price model based on the relationship between the suitability of the growing season and market prices for coarse grain. The model is then used to create spatially continuous maps of millet prices. The model is applied to the dry central and northern areas of West Africa, using satellite-derived vegetation indices for the entire region. By coupling the model with vegetation data estimated for one to four months into the future, maps are created of a leading indicator of potential price movements. It is anticipated that these maps can be used to enable early warning of famine and for planning appropriate responses.

Brown, Molly E.↗

Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Environmental Remediation Using EPA's Model Evaluation Guidance to Move to Closure - 15588

The National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) has adapted the Environmental Protection Agency's guidance on environmental model evaluation as a framework for evaluating corrective action investigation models. Model evaluation is an important confidence building activity, which is needed to support closure of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Corrective Action Units (CAUs) associated with underground nuclear testing. Through this process, site-investigation models of groundwater flow and contaminant transport are reviewed and compared to new site-specific data to determine if the results can be used to support regulatory decisions required for closure and to achieve NNSA/NFO site management objectives. The regulatory decisions include identifying and establishing CAU regulatory boundaries; identifying institutional controls, including use-restriction boundaries; and developing a long-term closure monitoring program. A successful case study from Frenchman Flat, Nevada is used to illustrate the model evaluation process. Groundwater flow and transport from two of the 10 underground nuclear tests in Frenchman Flat had the largest potential for contaminating groundwater, and were selected for evaluation. Wells were drilled, logged, hydraulically tested, sampled, and analyzed for radionuclides and the data was evaluated with respect to previous site conceptualization and numerical model results. The approach and results of this process as applied to the PIN STRIPE test and how it helped build confidence to close the Frenchman Flat CAU is described in this case study. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Comparison of Distributive Consensus Algorithms for AnomalyDetection on the Power-Grid

As an increasing number of devices in the power-grid rely on high-precision clocks to measure electrical properties and time stamp data, GPS receivers have become a vulnerability on the power-grid. GPS spoofing attacks, in which a fake signal is transmitted, can cause sensor measurement errors that can misinform protective equipment and grid operators for both the transmission and distribution grid. The technology being developed to secure precision clocks in the transmission grid are not appropriate for the distribution grid. Thus, there is a need to developed anomaly detection algorithms that are suitable for the hardware available on the distribution grid. Traditionally, a distributed detection framework is comprised of spatially distributed nodes which acquire observations about a quantity of interest and sends the data to the fusion center, where a global decision is made. Instead the distribution grid has low-power devices, such as smart inverters and microPMUs, that could be used to perform highly parallelized calculations. Having on node calculations is beneficial since it is more network and computation efficient, as the more calculations can be performed where the data is being captured instead of communicating across a slow network to a centralized fusion center. Instead, we could employ an alternate peer-to-peer type of information exchange on the distribution grid that can still reach a global decision. A decentralized approach to anomaly detection makes efficient use of the computational and network bandwidth that exists, and it also lacks the single point of failure of a centralized approach. Thus, a decentralized local information exchange and/or inference is preferred. Lastly, the unreliability of the distribution grid network connections and potential noise or error in the measurements must be considered. In order to produce an effective detection tool, a Byzantine-fault tolerant and asynchronous algorithm must be developed. Thus, the first phase of our project is to develop a distributed, decentralized, asynchronous, Byzantine-fault tolerant, collaborative autonomy-based anomaly detection algorithm to collectively analyze clusters of data for signs of a malicious attack.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Interactive, Secure Web-enabled Aircraft Engine Simulation Using XML Databinding Integration

This paper discusses the detailed design of an XML databinding framework for aircraft engine simulation. The framework provides an object interface to access and use engine data. while at the same time preserving the meaning of the original data. The Language independent representation of engine component data enables users to move around XML data using HTTP through disparate networks. The application of this framework is demonstrated via a web-based turbofan propulsion system simulation using the World Wide Web (WWW). A Java Servlet based web component architecture is used for rendering XML engine data into HTML format and dealing with input events from the user, which allows users to interact with simulation data from a web browser. The simulation data can also be saved to a local disk for archiving or to restart the simulation at a later time.

Lin, Risheng↗

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