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Radar Measurements of the LEO Orbital Debris Environment

Access to space and the preservation of the near-Earth space environment is of critical significance. Increased interest in issues surrounding space traffic management and the continued assessment and discussion of orbital debris at the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) illustrates the significance of the topic of orbital debris. There are currently over 20,000 tracked objects in the publicly available satellite catalog on Space-Track.org. The catalog is maintained by the US Air Force Space Command using a network of optical and radar ground-based sensors and is believed to be complete for a characteristic size of 10 cm or larger in low Earth orbit (LEO). Based on the work of the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) over approximately the past 40 years it is understood that the small debris population (< 10 cm) increases by orders of magnitude as characteristic size decreases. With population estimates ranging from 500,000 to 1,000,000 small debris objects (> 5 mm) in orbit, it is currently not practical to track and maintain precision orbits on every object. Instead the NASA ODPO uses powerful ground-based radars to sample the low Earth Orbit (LEO) environment and assign approximate orbits to each detection. This poses an interesting signal processing challenge as we are trying to detect the smallest objects possible on the edge of the radar's sensitivity. For approximately the last 30 years, NASA ODPO has partnered with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) to utilize the Haystack Ultra-wideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR - formerly the Long-Range Imaging Radar or simply Haystack) and the Haystack Auxiliary (HAX) radar to collect orbital debris radar data. Additionally, the ODPO collaborates with the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to use the Goldstone Solar System Radar. The orbital debris detections from these radars serve as inputs for statistical risk models used by the human spaceflight and satellite communities to assess risk to spacecraft posed by orbital debris. In this paper, we will describe the history of orbital debris radar measurements conducted by NASA, provide an overview of current radar measurements techniques and facilities, discuss the signal processing software used for orbital debris measurements and the inference of debris size and orbital parameters from these measurements, and discuss how orbital debris radar measurements are validated for use in models that are used throughout the aerospace industry.

Blackwell, Chris↗

Broadband Inlet Liner Design for the DGEN Aero-Propulsion Research Turbofan

The utilization of advanced fan designs (including higher bypass ratios) and shorter engine nacelles has highlighted a need for increased fan noise reduction over a broad frequency range. With these observations in mind, an acoustic liner optimization process has been developed to achieve improved broadband liner designs. A series of advanced liner design studies at increasing technology readiness levels has been conducted as the overall optimization methodology has been enhanced. In this work, further validation was pursued through the fabrication and testing of two liner designs for the NASA Glenn DGEN Aero-propulsion Research Turbofan. Specifically, single and three layer liners were designed, fabricated, and tested. Analysis of the predicted attenuation results showed them to generally match expected trends for the conditions considered. The effects of source distribution on predicted directivity were also illustrated through the flexibility of a statistical source model. As part of the analysis, the overall design and evaluation capability was extended such that external observer locations may be included in the optimization process. This enhancement will provide a much wider design space for the development of advanced broadband liners. These preliminary results provide further confidence in the design tools and enhancements made to the overall liner design process.

Nark, Douglas M.↗

Integrating Remote Sensing Observations with NASA's GEOS-5 Modeling Framework in Support of Retrospective Analyses and Seasonal Prediction of Biosphere-Atmosphere CO2 Flux

The absorption of nearly half of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by terrestrial and marine ecosystems has played a critical role in mitigating climate change. However, a persistent lack of understanding of these uptake processes impedes attribution, and thereby introduces large uncertainties into projections of the trajectory of carbon and climate in coming decades. A better understanding and quantification of the seasonal and interannual variability of carbon flux between the atmosphere and ocean and terrestrial biospheres is critically needed to improve predictions from Earth system models. We propose to bring together a diverse suite of remote sensing observations, mechanistic models, and NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) model to address two objective 1) quantify the processes controlling the temporal variability of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 flux on seasonal and interannual timescales from 1989 to 2018 and 2) evaluating the predictability of the components of carbon flux on seasonal timescales. Because GEOS-5 has been developed to incorporate a variety of Earth system observations and includes a complete and physically consistent depiction of the atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon cycles, it represents a unique and ideal synthesis framework for this effort. By expanding the realism of processes that could be included in GEOS-5 seasonal forecasts, this effort supports NASA's goals toward an integrated Earth system modeling and prediction framework.We propose to integrate a number of observations into the GEOS-5 modeling system to refine retrospective estimates of both terrestrial and marine carbon flux and to test hypotheses regarding the effects of climate drivers on terrestrial carbon flux. This will include assimilating several satellite ocean color products in the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) to improve the representation of ocean biology. We will also utilize remote sensing datasets to increase the temporal resolution of global land-use change estimates and fire emissions to better constrain the temporal variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This information will be incorporated into two NASA terrestrial biosphere models Catchment-CN, a dynamic vegetation model that is integrated within GEOS-5 and the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, a core modeling resource supporting the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission to map biomass. Fluxes will be evaluated through 1) comparison to top-down flux estimates inferred from surface CO2 observations and 2) comparison against available aircraft and satellite observations.By combining predictions of net ecosystem exchange and air-sea CO2 flux from land and ocean models with statistical predictions of land use change, fire, and fossil fuel emissions, we propose to create the first dynamical CO2 forecast on seasonal timescales. Because of the experimental nature of this endeavor, an important project objective will be to evaluate the limits to the predictability of different carbon cycle processes over lead times of 1-12 months using different satellite and surface data streams.

Ott, Lesley↗

Effect of aerosols and clouds on the retrieval of infrared sea surface temperatures

Comparisons are performed between spatially averaged sea surface temperatures (ASST2) as derived from the second Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR-2) on board the second European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-2) and the NOAA–NASA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Oceans Pathfinder dataset (MPFSST). Difference maps, MPFSST 2 ASST2, along with the application of a simple statistical regression model to aerosol and cloud data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), are used to examine the impact of possible aerosol and cloud contamination. Differences varied regionally, but the largest biases were seen off western Africa. Nighttime and daytime differences off western Africa were reduced from 20.58 to 20.28C and from 20.18 to 08C, respectively. Significant cloud flagging, based on the model, occurred in the Indian Ocean, the equatorial Pacific, and in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream. Comparisons of the MPFSST and the ASST2 with in situ data from the 2002 version of the World Oceanic Database (WOD02) off western Africa show larger mean differences for the MPFSST. The smallest mean differences occurred for nighttime ASST2 2 WOD02 with a value of 0.08 6 0.48C.

Armstrong, Edward M.↗

A NICER Look at Thermonuclear X-ray Bursts from Aql X-1

We present spectral and temporal properties of all the thermonuclear X-ray bursts observed from Aql X-1 by the Neutron StarInterior and Composition Explorer (NICER) between 2017 July and 2021 April. This is the first systematic investigation of alarge sample of type I X-ray bursts from Aql X-1 with improved sensitivity at low energies. We detect 22 X-ray bursts includingtwo short recurrence burst events in which the separation was only 451 s and 496 s. We perform time resolved spectroscopy of thebursts using the fixed and scaled background (fa method) approaches. We show that the use of a scaling factor to the pre-burstemission is the statistically preferred model in about 68% of all the spectra compared to the fixed background approach. Typically the fa values are clustered around 1–3, but can reach up to 11 in a burst where photospheric radius expansion is observed. Such fa values indicate a very significant increase in the pre-burst emission especially at around the peak flux moments of the bursts.We show that the use of the fa factor alters the best fit spectral parameters of the burst emission. Finally, we employed a reflectionmodel instead of scaling the pre-burst emission. We show that reflection models also do fit the spectra and improve the goodnessof the fits. In all cases we see that the disc is highly ionized by the burst emission and the fraction of the reprocessed emission tothe incident burst flux is typically clustered around 20%

Tolga Güver↗

Colloids in Microgravity

Colloidal particles are important in a broad range of applications in technology and materials processing. Due to high sensitivity to thermal fluctuations, a suspension of colloidal particles is considered as an assembly of super-atoms in condensed matter physics. This feature provides an excellent experimental model in statistical mechanics for fundamental studies of microstructural evolution and phase transformation at the individual particle level. However, using colloids to probe three-dimensional phase transitions on Earth remains a challenge as they can be influenced by the gravity force causing the particles to sediment and the solvent to flow. To suppress the undesirable gravity effects, experiments on concentrated colloids were carried out in the International Space Station (ISS) Light Microscopy Module. We will present results of these experiments.

Colloids↗

Multi-scale theory-assisted nano-engineering of plasmonic-organic hybrid electro-optic device performance

Multi-scale (correlated quantum and statistical mechanics) modeling methods have been advanced and employed to guide the improvement of organic electro-optic (OEO) materials, including by analyzing electric field poling induced electro-optic activity in nanoscopic plasmonic-organic hybrid (POH) waveguide devices. The analysis of in-device electro-optic activity emphasizes the importance of considering both the details of intermolecular interactions within organic electro-optic materials and interactions at interfaces between OEO materials and device architectures. Dramatic improvement in electro-optic device performance--including voltage-length performance, bandwidth, energy efficiency, and lower optical losses have been realized. These improvements are critical to applications in telecommunications, computing, sensor technology, and metrology. Multi-scale modeling methods illustrate the complexity of improving the electro-optic activity of organic materials, including the necessity of considering the trade-off between improving poling-induced acentric order through chromophore modification and the reduction of chromophore number density associated with such modification. Computational simulations also emphasize the importance of developing chromophore modifications that serve multiple purposes including matrix hardening for enhanced thermal and photochemical stability, control of matrix dimensionality, influence on material viscoelasticity, improvement of chromophore molecular hyperpolarizability, control of material dielectric permittivity and index of refraction properties, and control of material conductance. Consideration of new device architectures is critical to the implementation of chipscale integration of electronics and photonics and achieving the high bandwidths for applications such as next generation (e.g., 5G) telecommunications.

Elder, Delwin L.↗

Retrofit-ability: A supplementary metric to inform energy efficiency policies and programs

Building Energy Use Intensity (EUI) has been commonly used to facilitate policy makers and utilities to design energy efficacy programs and help building managers prioritize investment in building upgrades. Buildings with higher EUIs are usually chosen as better candidates for retrofit. Our study of nearly one hundred buildings in Seattle’s Building Tune Up Accelerator program and thousands of buildings in the Asset Score database reveals that EUI (after weather/location/use type normalization) alone is not the best indicator of a building’s potential to save energy, especially for those buildings in the mid-range (30-70 percentile EUI). In this paper, we introduce the concept of “retrofit-ability” — a building’s real potential to reduce its energy use cost-effectively — as a supplementary metric to inform energy efficiency policy and investment. Currently, such potential analyses are predicted for a building stock using prototypical building models or statistical data. However, typical buildings or general historical data may not sufficiently represent building configurations in a portfolio and predict their saving potentials. We utilized machine learning to investigate how key building characteristics (such as envelope attributes, HVAC type, location, use type, etc.) affect a building’s improvement potentials and developed a low-cost method to quantify such potentials for a portfolio of buildings. The supplementary perspective provided by “retrofit-ability” highlights which building assets correlate most with a building’s energy savings potential across region, building use type and more.

Wang, Na↗

DOE-BU-26096-4

The infiltration of nanoparticle electrocatalysts into solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) electrodes has been proven to produce a high density of electrochemically active sites, and reduce charge transfer polarization losses in SOFC electrodes. This is crucial for intermediate temperature operation, as these losses increase greatly at lower temperatures. Nickel-yttria stabilized zirconia (Ni-YSZ) cermets are low-cost, and exhibit excellent stability, but their main disadvantage stems from nickel coarsening and performance loss over their operational lifetimes. Infiltration of electrocatalyst nanoparticles has been shown to mitigate nickel coarsening and the consequent anode degradation. In this work, the effects of these infiltrants have been observed in a standard Ni-YSZ electrode. In addition to nickel, mixed ionic and electronic conducting (MIEC) phases have been infiltrated into Ni-YSZ scaffolds and their performance characterized using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). Cross-sectional microscopy of fractured cells has been used to compare electrode microstructure and particle statistics. A model has been proposed to explain the origin of anode performance enhancement from nanoscale electrocatalysts.

Mo, Boshan↗

First results from the search of $ν_μ$ disappearance with ICARUS

his work presents a search for muon neutrino disappearance signal using the ICARUS detector. ICARUS is currently working as the far detector of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program. Its main goal is to investigate the possible oscillation of a sterile neutrino state ($\Delta m^2 \sim \text{eV}^2$), that would drive short baseline oscillations at the scale of L/E $\sim$ km/GeV. Neutrino interactions from the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) are investigated, looking for simple final state topology with a single muon and at least one proton (1$\mu$Np). This analysis tests the 3+1 model using the two flavor neutrino approximation, where careful consideration has been given to the systematic uncertainties arising from flux, neutrino interaction, and detector models. No statistically significant $\nu_\mu$ disappearance is observed, hence 90\% C.L. exclusion contours are reported in the $\Delta m^2_{41} - \sin^22\theta_{\mu\mu}$ parameter space.

Artero Pons, Maria [INFN, Padua; U. Padua (main)]↗

Two-component model of strong Langmuir turbulence - Scalings, spectra, and statistics of Langmuir waves

A simple two-component model of strong turbulence that makes clear predictions for the scalings, spectra, and statistics of Langmuir waves is developed. Scalings of quantities such as energy density, power input, dissipation power wave collapse, and number density of collapsing objects are investigated in detail and found to agree well with model predictions. The nucleation model of wave-packet formation is strongly supported by the results. Nucleation proceeds with energy flowing from background to localized states even in the absence of a driver. Modulational instabilities play little or no role in maintaining the turbulent state when significant density nonuniformities are present.

Robinson, P. A.↗

Probing the limits of statistical neutron capture for the r process: Experimental constraints on 141 Cs nuclear level densities

The r-process abundance peaks, particularly near mass number A ∼ 130, reflect underlying nuclear structure effects such as closed neutron shells, yet modeling the nucleosynthesis in this region remains hindered by uncertain neutron-capture rates. These rates are especially sensitive to nuclear level densities (NLDs) and γ-ray strength functions of neutron-rich nuclei, where experimental data are scarce. We present the first experimental constraint on the NLD of 141 Cs using the β-Oslo method, extending sensitivity to the neutron-rich regime near the N = 82 closed shell. Our data allow for critical calibration of microscopic NLD models and reveal that 141 Cs lies near the limit of statistical model applicability. Using this experimental input, we evaluate radiative neutron-capture rates across neighboring isotones using both Hauser–Feshbach (HF) and High Fidelity Resonance (HFR) models. Our results show order-of-magnitude rate increases for nuclei along the N = 86 line, signaling a transition to resonance-dominated capture in this region. These findings underscore the importance of constraining NLDs to improve r-process reaction network predictions, particularly in environments where the validity of statistical models breaks down.

Nuclear level density↗

Making statistical inferences about software reliability

Failure times of software undergoing random debugging can be modeled as order statistics of independent but nonidentically distributed exponential random variables. Using this model inferences can be made about current reliability and, if debugging continues, future reliability. This model also shows the difficulty inherent in statistical verification of very highly reliable software such as that used by digital avionics in commercial aircraft.

Miller, Douglas R.↗

Making statistical inferences about software reliability

Failure times of software undergoing random debugging can be modelled as order statistics of independent but nonidentically distributed exponential random variables. Using this model inferences can be made about current reliability and, if debugging continues, future reliability. This model also shows the difficulty inherent in statistical verification of very highly reliable software such as that used by digital avionics in commercial aircraft.

Miller, Douglas R.↗

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