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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Resolved Stellar Streams around NGC 4631 from a Subaru/Hyper Suprime-Cam Survey

We present the first results of the Subaru/Hyper Suprime-Cam survey of the interacting galaxy system, NGC 4631 and NGC 4656. From the maps of resolved stellar populations, we identify 11 dwarf galaxies (including already-known dwarfs) in the outer region of NGC 4631 and the two tidal stellar streams around NGC 4631, named Stream SE and Stream NW, respectively. This paper describes the fundamental properties of these tidal streams. Based on the tip of the red giant branch method and the Bayesian statistics, we find that Stream SE (7.10 Mpc in expected a posteriori, EAP, with 90% credible intervals of [6.22, 7.29] Mpc) and Stream NW (7.91 Mpc in EAP with 90% credible intervals of [6.44, 7.97] Mpc) are located in front of and behind NGC 4631, respectively. We also calculate the metallicity distribution of stellar streams by comparing the member stars with theoretical isochrones on the color–magnitude diagram. We find that both streams have the same stellar population based on the Bayesian model selection method, suggesting that they originated from a tidal interaction between NGC 4631 and a single dwarf satellite. The expected progenitor has a positively skewed metallicity distribution function with [M/H]{sub EAP}=−0.92, with 90% credible intervals of [−1.46, −0.51]. The stellar mass of the progenitor is estimated as 3.7×10{sup 8} M{sub ⊙}, with 90% credible intervals of [5.8×10{sup 6},8.6×10{sup 9}] M{sub ⊙} based on the mass–metallicity relation for Local group dwarf galaxies. This is in good agreement with the initial stellar mass of the progenitor that was presumed in the previous N-body simulation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2013

SynGenics Optimization System (SynOptSys)

The SynGenics Optimization System (SynOptSys) software application optimizes a product with respect to multiple, competing criteria using statistical Design of Experiments, Response-Surface Methodology, and the Desirability Optimization Methodology. The user is not required to be skilled in the underlying math; thus, SynOptSys can help designers and product developers overcome the barriers that prevent them from using powerful techniques to develop better pro ducts in a less costly manner. SynOpt-Sys is applicable to the design of any product or process with multiple criteria to meet, and at least two factors that influence achievement of those criteria. The user begins with a selected solution principle or system concept and a set of criteria that needs to be satisfied. The criteria may be expressed in terms of documented desirements or defined responses that the future system needs to achieve. Documented desirements can be imported into SynOptSys or created and documented directly within SynOptSys. Subsequent steps include identifying factors, specifying model order for each response, designing the experiment, running the experiment and gathering the data, analyzing the results, and determining the specifications for the optimized system. The user may also enter textual information as the project progresses. Data is easily edited within SynOptSys, and the software design enables full traceability within any step in the process, and facilitates reporting as needed. SynOptSys is unique in the way responses are defined and the nuances of the goodness associated with changes in response values for each of the responses of interest. The Desirability Optimization Methodology provides the basis of this novel feature. Moreover, this is a complete, guided design and optimization process tool with embedded math that can remain invisible to the user. It is not a standalone statistical program; it is a design and optimization system.

Ventresca, Carol↗
DOE OSTI2018

Dose‐response relationships between internally‐deposited uranium and select health outcomes in gaseous diffusion plant workers, 1948‐2011

Objective To examine dose‐response relationships between internal uranium exposures and select outcomes among a cohort of uranium enrichment workers. Methods Cox regression was conducted to examine associations between selected health outcomes and cumulative internal uranium with consideration for external ionizing radiation, work‐related medical X‐rays and contaminant radionuclides technetium ( 99 Tc) and plutonium ( 239 Pu) as potential confounders. Results Elevated and monotonically increasing mortality risks were observed for kidney cancer, chronic renal diseases, and multiple myeloma, and the association with internal uranium absorbed organ dose was statistically significant for multiple myeloma. Adjustment for potential confounders had minimal impact on the risk estimates. Conclusion Kidney cancer, chronic renal disease, and multiple myeloma mortality risks were elevated with increasing internal uranium absorbed organ dose. The findings add to evidence of an association between internal exposure to uranium and cancer. Future investigation includes a study of cancer incidence in this cohort.

Yiin, James H.↗
DOE OSTI2013

Carcinoma of the anal canal: Intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) versus three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3DCRT)

Patients with anal canal carcinoma treated with standard conformal radiotherapy frequently experience severe acute and late toxicity reactions to the treatment area. Roohipour et al. (Dis Colon Rectum 2008; 51: 147–53) stated a patient's tolerance of chemoradiation to be an important prediction of treatment success. A new intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) technique for anal carcinoma cases has been developed at the Andrew Love Cancer Centre aimed at reducing radiation to surrounding healthy tissue. A same-subject repeated measures design was used for this study, where five anal carcinoma cases at the Andrew Love Cancer Centre were selected. Conformal and IMRT plans were generated and dosimetric evaluations were performed. Each plan was prescribed a total of 54 Gray (Gy) over a course of 30 fractions to the primary site. The IMRT plans resulted in improved dosimetry to the planning target volume (PTV) and reduction in radiation to the critical structures (bladder, external genitalia and femoral heads). Statistically there was no difference between the IMRT and conformal plans in the dose to the small and large bowel; however, the bowel IMRT dose–volume histogram (DVH) doses were consistently lower. The IMRT plans were superior to the conformal plans with improved dose conformity and reduced radiation to the surrounding healthy tissue. Anecdotally it was found that patients tolerated the IMRT treatment better than the three-dimensional (3D) conformal radiation therapy. This study describes and compares the planning techniques.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Droplet size distributions in turbulent clouds: experimental evaluation of theoretical distributions

Precipitation efficiency and optical properties of clouds, both central to determining Earth's weather and climate, depend on the size distribution of cloud particles. Here in this paper, theoretical expressions for cloud droplet size distribution shape are evaluated using measurements from controlled experiments in a convective-cloud chamber. The experiments are a unique opportunity to constrain theory because they are in steady-state and because the initial and boundary conditions are well characterized compared to typical atmospheric measurements. Three theoretical distributions obtained from a Langevin drift-diffusion approach to cloud formation via stochastic condensation are tested: (a) stochastic condensation with a constant removal time-scale; (b) stochastic condensation with a size-dependent removal time-scale; (c) droplet growth in a fixed supersaturation condition and with size-dependent removal. In addition, a similar Weibull distribution that can be obtained from the drift-diffusion approach, as well as from mechanism-independent probabilistic arguments (e.g., maximum entropy), is tested as a fourth hypothesis. Statistical techniques such as the χ2 test, sum of squared errors of prediction, and residual analysis are employed to judge relative success or failure of the theoretical distributions to describe the experimental data. An extensive set of cloud droplet size distributions are measured under different aerosol injection rates. Five different aerosol injection rates are run both for size-selected aerosol particles, and six aerosol injection rates are run for broad-distribution, polydisperse aerosol particles. In relative comparison, the most favourable comparison to the measurements is the expression for stochastic condensation with size-dependent droplet removal rate. However, even this optimal distribution breaks down for broad aerosol size distributions, primarily due to deviations from the measured large-droplet tail. Lastly, a possible explanation for the deviation is the Ostwald ripening effect coupled with deactivation/activation in polluted cloud conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Adaptive Polynomial Chaos Expansions

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) are widely used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks, particularly in the applied mathematics community. However, PCE has received comparatively less attention in the statistics literature, and fully Bayesian formulations remain rare—especially with implementations in R. Motivated by the success of adaptive Bayesian machine learning models such as BART, BASS and BPPR, we develop a new fully Bayesian adaptive PCE method with an efficient and accessible R implementation: khaos. Our approach includes a novel proposal distribution that enables data-driven interaction selection and supports a modified g-prior tailored to PCE structure. Through simulation studies and real-world UQ applications, we demonstrate that the Bayesian adaptive PCE provides competitive performance for surrogate modeling, global sensitivity analysis and ordinal regression tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

CODEX clusters

Context: Large area catalogs of galaxy clusters constructed from ROSAT All-Sky Survey provide the basis for our knowledge of the population of clusters thanks to long-term multiwavelength efforts to follow up observations of these clusters. Aims: The advent of large area photometric surveys superseding previous, in-depth all-sky data allows us to revisit the construction of X-ray cluster catalogs, extending the study to lower cluster masses and higher redshifts and providing modeling of the selection function. Methods: We performed a wavelet detection of X-ray sources and made extensive simulations of the detection of clusters in the RASS data. We assigned an optical richness to each of the 24 788 detected X-ray sources in the 10 382 square degrees of the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey area using red sequence cluster finder redMaPPer version 5.2 run on Sloan Digital Sky Survey photometry. We named this survey COnstrain Dark Energy with X-ray (CODEX) clusters. Results: We show that there is no obvious separation of sources on galaxy clusters and active galactic nuclei (AGN) based on the distribution of systems on their richness. This is a combination of an increasing number of galaxy groups and their selection via the identification of X-ray sources either by chance or by groups hosting an AGN. To clean the sample, we use a cut on the optical richness at the level corresponding to the 10% completeness of the survey and include it in the modeling of the cluster selection function. We present the X-ray catalog extending to a redshift of 0.6. Conclusions: The CODEX suvey is the first large area X-ray selected catalog of northern clusters reaching fluxes of 10 –13 ergs s –1 cm –2 . We provide modeling of the sample selection and discuss the redshift evolution of the high end of the X-ray luminosity function (XLF). Our results on z < 0.3 XLF agree with previous studies, while we provide new constraints on the 0.3 < z < 0.6 XLF. We find a lack of strong redshift evolution of the XLF, provide exact modeling of the effect of low number statistics and AGN contamination, and present the resulting constraints on the flat ΛCDM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Prompt fission neutron and gamma ray properties as a function of incident neutron energy

The CGMF code provides a complete description of the properties of the prompt neutrons and γ rays, emitted before beta decays. It is based on a Monte Carlo implementation of the Hauser-Feshbach statistical model, which provides an accurate phenomenological description of the de-excitation of the fission fragments toward stable configurations via neutron and γ-ray emissions. This approach allows a detailed description of a large number of observables, such as multiplicity probabilities and correlations between the emitted particles. In this contribution, we briefly review the approach and present selected examples of neutron and γ-ray observables for neutron incident energies from thermal to 20 MeV, and compare against available data for 235 U(n,f) reaction.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Sharp predictions from eternal inflation patches in D-brane inflation

We numerically generate the six-dimensional landscape of D3-brane inflation and identify patches of eternal inflation near sufficiently flat inflection points of the potential. We show that reasonable measures that select patches of eternal inflation in the landscape yield sharp predictions for the spectral properties of primordial perturbations on observable scales. These include a scalar tilt of .936, a running of the scalar tilt −.00103, undetectably small tensors and non-Gaussianity, and no observable spatial curvature. Our results explicitly demonstrate that precision cosmology probes the combination of the statistical properties of the string landscape and the measure implied by the universe's quantum state.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

UrbanScaping: Community Spatial Data Visualization & Analytics

Evaluating the electrification potential of buildings through retrofitting is crucial for reducing carbon emissions and the carbon footprint of built environments. This study leverages the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) software, integrating the Model America database to create an urban context-based spatial analysis platform for community engagement and development. We selected Camp Hill Borough, PA, as a case study to analyze building-specific energy performance and evaluate the electrification potential of each building by switching to different Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems and measurement components. The simulation results generated by the workflow provide retrofitting suggestions to help mitigate the carbon footprint as well as energy saving statistics of buildings. Additionally, the developed web-based interface serves as a community engagement platform, allowing residents to provide feedback and further develop interactive communication protocols. The outcomes of this project offer a baseline for community electrification planning and contribute to the design of low-carbon communities.

Chowdhury, Shovan [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-77: A Statistical Approach to Manage Quality for Pre-Treatment Verification in IMRT/VMAT

Objective: The study presents the application of a simple concept of statistical process control (SPC) for pre-treatment quality assurance procedure analysis for planar dose measurements performed using 2D-array and a-Si electronic portal imaging device (a-Si EPID). Method: A total of 195 patients of four different anatomical sites: brain (n1=45), head & neck (n2=45), thorax (n3=50) and pelvis (n4=55) were selected for the study. Pre-treatment quality assurance for the clinically acceptable IMRT/VMAT plans was measured with 2D array and a-Si EPID of the accelerator. After the γ-analysis, control charts and the quality index Cpm was evaluated for each cohort. Results: Mean and σ of γ ( 3%/3 mm) were EPID γ %≤1= 99.9% ± 1.15% and array γ %<1 = 99.6% ± 1.06%. Among all plans γ max was consistently lower than for 2D array as compared to a-Si EPID. Fig.1 presents the X-bar control charts for every cohort. Cpm values for a-Si EPID were found to be higher than array, detailed results are presented in table 1. Conclusion: Present study demonstrates the significance of control charts used for quality management purposes in newer radiotherapy clinics. Also, provides a pictorial overview of the clinic performance for the advanced radiotherapy techniques.Higher Cpm values for EPID indicate its higher efficiency than array based measurements.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Short-wavelength-sensitive 2 (Sws2) visual photopigment models combined with atomistic molecular simulations to predict spectral peaks of absorbance

For many species, vision is one of the most important sensory modalities for mediating essential tasks that include navigation, predation and foraging, predator avoidance, and numerous social behaviors. The vertebrate visual process begins when photons of the light interact with rod and cone photoreceptors that are present in the neural retina. Vertebrate visual photopigments are housed within these photoreceptor cells and are sensitive to a wide range of wavelengths that peak within the light spectrum, the latter of which is a function of the type of chromophore used and how it interacts with specific amino acid residues found within the opsin protein sequence. Minor differences in the amino acid sequences of the opsins are known to lead to large differences in the spectral peak of absorbance (i.e. the λ max value). In our prior studies, we developed a new approach that combined homology modeling and molecular dynamics simulations to gather structural information associated with chromophore conformation, then used it to generate statistical models for the accurate prediction of λ max values for photopigments derived from Rh1 and Rh2 amino acid sequences. In the present study, we test our novel approach to predict the λ max of phylogenetically distant Sws2 cone opsins. To build a model that can predict the λ max using our approach presented in our prior studies, we selected a spectrally-diverse set of 11 teleost Sws2 photopigments for which both amino acid sequence information and experimentally measured λ max values are known. The final first-order regression model, consisting of three terms associated with chromophore conformation, was sufficient to predict the λ max of Sws2 photopigments with high accuracy. This study further highlights the breadth of our approach in reliably predicting λ max values of Sws2 cone photopigments, evolutionary-more distant from template bovine RH1, and provided mechanistic insights into the role of known spectral tuning sites.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Comprehensive Detection of Genes Causing a Phenotype Using Phenotype Sequencing and Pathway Analysis

Discovering all the genetic causes of a phenotype is an important goal in functional genomics. We combine an experimental design for detecting independent genetic causes of a phenotype with a high-throughput sequencing analysis that maximizes sensitivity for comprehensively identifying them. Testing this approach on a set of 24 mutant strains generated for a metabolic phenotype with many known genetic causes, we show that this pathway-based phenotype sequencing analysis greatly improves sensitivity of detection compared with previous methods, and reveals a wide range of pathways that can cause this phenotype. We demonstrate our approach on a metabolic re-engineering phenotype, the PEP/OAA metabolic node in E. coli, which is crucial to a substantial number of metabolic pathways and under renewed interest for biofuel research. Out of 2157 mutations in these strains, pathway-phenoseq discriminated just five gene groups (12 genes) as statistically significant causes of the phenotype. Experimentally, these five gene groups, and the next two high-scoring pathway-phenoseq groups, either have a clear connection to the PEP metabolite level or offer an alternative path of producing oxaloacetate (OAA), and thus clearly explain the phenotype. These high-scoring gene groups also show strong evidence of positive selection pressure, compared with strictly neutral selection in the rest of the genome.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Statistical Analysis of CO 2 Exposed Wells to Predict Long Term Leakage through the Development of an Integrated Neural-Genetic Algorithm

The objective of this project is to develop a computerized statistical model with the Integrated Neural-Genetic Algorithm (INGA) for predicting the probability of long-term leak of wells in CO 2 sequestration operations. This object has been accomplished by conducting research in three phases: 1) data mining of CO 2 -explosed wells, 2) INGA computer model development, and 3) evaluation of the predictive performance of the computer model with data from field tests. Data mining was conducted for 510 wells in two CO 2 sequestration projects in the Texas Gulf Coast region. They are the Hasting West field and Oyster Bayou field in the Southern Texas. Missing wellbore integrity data were estimated using an analytical and Finite Element Method (FEM) model. The INGA was first tested for performances of convergence and computing efficiency with the obtained data set of high dimension. It was concluded that the INGA can handle the gathered data set with good accuracy and reasonable computing time after a reduction of dimension with a grouping mechanism. A computerized statistical model with the INGA was then developed based on data pre-processing and grouping. Comprehensive training and testing of the model were carried out to ensure that the model is accurate and efficient enough for predicting the probability of long-term leak of wells in CO 2 sequestration operations. The Cranfield in the southern Mississippi was select as the test site. Observation wells CFU31F2 and CFU31F3 were used for pressure-testing, formation-logging, and cement-sampling. Tools run in the wells include Isolation Scanner, Slim Cement Mapping Tool (SCMT), Cased Hole Formation Dynamics Tester (CHDT), and Mechanical Sidewall Coring Tool (MSCT). Analyses of the obtained data indicate no leak of CO 2 cross the cap zone while it is evident that the well cement sheath was invaded by the CO 2 from the storage zone. This observation is consistent with the result predicted by the INGA model which indicates the well has a CO 2 leak-safe probability of 72%. This comparison implies that the developed INGA model is valid for future use in predicting well leak probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A thermal-driven graupel generation process to explain dry-season convective vigor over the Amazon

Large-eddy simulations (LESs) are conducted for each day of the intensive observation periods (IOPs) of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) field campaign to characterize the updrafts and microphysics within deep convective cores while contrasting those properties between Amazon wet and dry seasons. Mean Doppler velocity (V dop ) values simulated using LESs are compared with 2-year measurements from a radar wind profiler (RWP) as viewed by statistical composites separated according to wet- and dry-season conditions. In the observed RWP and simulated LES V dop composites, we find more intense low-level updraft velocity, vigorous graupel generation, and intense surface rain during the dry periods compared with the wet periods. To investigate coupled updraft–microphysical processes further, single-day golden cases are selected from the wet and dry periods to conduct detailed cumulus thermal tracking analysis. Tracking analysis reveals that simulated dry-season environments generate more droplet-loaded low-level thermals than wet-season environments. This tendency correlates with seasonal contrasts in buoyancy and vertical moisture advection profiles in large-scale forcing. Employing a normalized time series of mean thermal microphysics, the simulated cumulus thermals appear to be the primary generator of cloud droplets. When subsequent thermals penetrate the ice crystal layer, droplets within the thermals interact with entrained ice crystals, which enhances riming in the thermals. This appears to be a production pathway of graupel/hail particles within simulated deep convective cores. In addition, less-diluted dry-case thermals tend to be elevated higher, and graupel grows further during sedimentation after spilling out from thermals. Therefore, greater concentrations of low-level moist thermals likely result in more graupel/hail production and associated dry-season convective vigor.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1977

Spectroscopic studies of O-type stars. VIII - Radial velocities and the K-term

Radial velocities are measured on coude spectrograms of over 200 O-type stars in both hemispheres. The selection of effective wavelengths for the stellar lines to be measured is reviewed, and the measured velocities are compared with those available in a catalog of O stars. The Trumpler (1935) effect (a reported anomalous redshift in certain O stars) is inconclusively reinvestigated, atmospheric motions in Of stars are examined, and some kinematic properties of O stars are discussed statistically. It is found that 58% of all O stars and 41% of all the Of stars considered are certain or probable binaries. A K-term in the range from 1 to 2 km/s is derived for the O stars, but the Of stars are shown to have a highly significant negative K-term. It is suggested that the systematically negative peculiar velocities of the Of stars are due to outflow of material beginning at the photospheric level.

Conti, P. S.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Systematic methods for knowledge acquisition and expert system development

Nine cooperating rule-based systems, collectively called AUTOCREW which were designed to automate functions and decisions associated with a combat aircraft's subsystems, are discussed. The organization of tasks within each system is described; performance metrics were developed to evaluate the workload of each rule base and to assess the cooperation between the rule bases. Simulation and comparative workload results for two mission scenarios are given. The scenarios are inbound surface-to-air-missile attack on the aircraft and pilot incapacitation. The methodology used to develop the AUTOCREW knowledge bases is summarized. Issues involved in designing the navigation sensor selection expert in AUTOCREW's NAVIGATOR knowledge base are discussed in detail. The performance of seven navigation systems aiding a medium-accuracy INS was investigated using Kalman filter covariance analyses. A navigation sensor management (NSM) expert system was formulated from covariance simulation data using the analysis of variance (ANOVA) method and the ID3 algorithm. ANOVA results show that statistically different position accuracies are obtained when different navaids are used, the number of navaids aiding the INS is varied, the aircraft's trajectory is varied, and the performance history is varied. The ID3 algorithm determines the NSM expert's classification rules in the form of decision trees. The performance of these decision trees was assessed on two arbitrary trajectories, and the results demonstrate that the NSM expert adapts to new situations and provides reasonable estimates of the expected hybrid performance.

Belkin, Brenda L.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Preferrential Concentration of Particles in Protoplanetary Nebula Turbulence

Preferential concentration in turbulence is a process that causes inertial particles to cluster in regions of high strain (in-between high vorticity regions), with specifics depending on their stopping time or Stokes number. This process is thought to be of importance in various problems including cloud droplet formation and aerosol transport in the atmosphere, sprays, and also in the formation of asteroids and comets in protoplanetary nebulae. In protoplanetary nebulae, the initial accretion of primitive bodies from freely-floating particles remains a problematic subject. Traditional growth-by-sticking models encounter a formidable "meter-size barrier" [1] in turbulent nebulae. One scenario that can lead directly from independent nebula particulates to large objects, avoiding the problematic m-km size range, involves formation of dense clumps of aerodynamically selected, typically mm-size particles in protoplanetary turbulence. There is evidence that at least the ordinary chondrite parent bodies were initially composed entirely of a homogeneous mix of such particles generally known as "chondrules" [2]. Thus, while it is arcane, turbulent preferential concentration acting directly on chondrule size particles are worthy of deeper study. Here, we present the statistical determination of particle multiplier distributions from numerical simulations of particle-laden isotopic turbulence, and a cascade model for modeling turbulent concentration at lengthscales and Reynolds numbers not accessible by numerical simulations. We find that the multiplier distributions are scale dependent at the very largest scales but have scale-invariant properties under a particular variable normalization at smaller scales.

protoplanetary nebulae↗

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