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Changes in a suite of indicators of extreme temperature and precipitation under 1.5 and 2 degrees warming
Following the 2015 Paris agreement, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was tasked with assessing climate change impacts and mitigation options for a world that limits warming to 1.5 °Cina special report. To aid the scientific assessment process three low-warming ensembles were generated over the 21st century based on the Paris targets using NCAR-DOE community model, CESM1-CAM5. This study used those simulation results and computed ten extreme climate indices, from deinitions created by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, to determine if the three different scenarios cause different intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation or temperature over the 21 st century. After computing the indices, statistical tests were used to determine if significant changes affect their characteristics. It was found that at the grid point level significant changes emerge in all scenarios, for nearly all indices. The temperature indices show widespread significant change, while the behavior of precipitation indices reflects the larger role that internal variability plays, even by the end of the century. Nonetheless differences can be assessed, in substantial measure for many of these indices: changes in nearly all indices have a strong correlation to global mean temperature, so that scenarios and times with greater temperature change experience greater index changes for many regions. This is particularly true of the temperature-related indices, but can be assessed for some regions also for the indices related to precipitation intensity. These results thus show that even for scenarios that are separated by only half of a degree in global average temperature, the statistics of extremes are significantly different.
Fabrication and Testing of a Stainless Steel Quartz Coaxial Cable Structure for High Temperature Measurement
This paper presents a stainless-steel quartz coaxial cable structure for distributed sensing of high temperatures. The coaxial cable sensor uses stainless steel as the inner and outer conductors and quartz as the insulator in order to achieve mechanical strength and temperature resilience. Girdle-shaped reflectors are fabricated on the quartz tubing by CNC grinding and CO 2 laser resurfacing. The sensor operates by measuring the temperature dependent change in the effective electromagnetic length between the two adjacent reflectors on the quartz tubing. A retaining collar is fabricated at the tip of the quartz tubing by 3D printing and laser resurfacing to secure the connection between the sensor and the signal cable. The prototype sensor was tested for high temperature measurements up to 600°C, and the performance characteristics of the sensor such as sensitivity, resolution uncertainty, repeatability, and stability were estimated based on the test results.
Nonlinearity of the post-spinel transition and its expression in slabs and plumes worldwide
Phase transitions in the mantle control its internal dynamics and structure. The post-spinel transition marks the upper–lower mantle boundary, where ringwoodite dissociates into bridgmanite plus ferropericlase, and its Clapeyron slope regulates mantle flow across it. This interaction has previously been assumed to have no lateral spatial variations, based on the assumption of a linear post-spinel boundary in pressure and temperature. Here we present laser-heated diamond anvil cell experiments with synchrotron X-ray diffraction to better constrain this boundary, especially at higher temperatures. Combining our data with results from the literature, and using a global analysis based on machine learning, we find a pronounced nonlinearity in the post-spinel boundary, with its slope ranging from –4 MPa/K at 2100 K, to –2 MPa/K at 1950 K, and to 0 MPa/K at 1600 K. Changes in temperature over time and space can therefore cause the post-spinel transition to have variable effects on mantle convection and the movement of subducting slabs and upwelling plumes.
Correlating structural changes in thermoresponsive hydrogels to the optical response of embedded plasmonic nanoparticles
Stimuli-responsive microgels, composed of small beads with soft, deformable polymer networks swollen through a combination of synthetic control over the polymer and its interaction with water, form a versatile platform for development of multifunctional and biocompatible sensors. The interfacial structural variation of such materials at a nanometer length scale is essential to their function, but not yet fully comprehended. Here, we take advantage of the plasmonic response of a gold nanorod embedded in a thermoresponsive microgel (AuNR@PNIPMAm) to monitor structural changes in the hydrogel directly near the nanorod surface. By direct comparison of the plasmon response against measurements of the hydrogel structure from dynamic light scattering and nuclear magnetic resonance, we find that the microgel shell of batch-polymerized AuNR@PNIPMAm exhibits a heterogeneous volume phase transition reflected by different onset temperatures for changes in the hydrodyanmic radius (R H ) and plasmon resonance, respectively. The new approach of contrasting plasmonic response (a measure of local surface hydrogel structure) with R H and relaxation times paves a new path to gain valuable insight for the design of plasmonic sensors based on stimuli-responsive hydrogels.
Experiments using atmospheric forcing from a FGGE analysis to drive an upper ocean model
Results are presented of a series of numerical experiments in which an upper ocean model is driven by surface heat fluxes and stress fields derived from the FGGE SOP-1 GLAS analysis/forecast system (Halem, et al., 1982). The model results show that most changes in the mixed layer height and horizontal velocity occurs in the first days. On the other hand, changes in the temperature field take a longer time to develop. In the most realistic case (real initial conditions, instantaneous forcing fields from the atmospheric analysis), the resulting changes in temperature were larger than observed and the correlation between observed and predicted changes was poor. The deficiency in the forecast of SST changes may be due to several factors: lack of sufficient ocean resolution, improper initialization, lack of feedback between the ocean and the atmosphere and the absence of transports by the strong boundary currents, and perhaps unrealistic surface fluxes of heat and momentum. Unless these problems are alleviated it is not reasonable to perform coupled atmospheric ocean forecasts.
Why Is the Range of Timescale So Wide in Glass-Forming Liquid?
The viscosity and the relaxation time of a glass-forming liquid vary over 15 orders of magnitude before the liquid freezes into a glass. The rate of the change with temperature is characterized by liquid fragility. The mechanism of such a spectacular behavior and the origin of fragility have long been discussed, but it remains unresolved because of the difficulty of carrying out experiments and constructing theories that bridge over a wide timescale from atomic (ps) to bulk (minutes). Through the x-ray diffraction measurement and molecular dynamics simulation for metallic liquids we suggest that large changes in viscosity can be caused by relatively small changes in the structural coherence which characterizes the medium-range order. Here the structural coherence does not imply that of atomic-scale structure, but it relates to the coarse-grained density fluctuations represented by the peaks in the pair-distribution function (PDF) beyond the nearest neighbors. The coherence length is related to fragility and increases with decreasing temperature, and it diverges only at a negative temperature. This analysis is compared with several current theories which predict a phase transition near the glass transition temperature.
Knock-Limited Performance of Triptane and 28-R Fuel Blends as Affected by Changes in Compression Ratio and in Engine Operating Variables
A knock-limited performance investigation was conducted on blends of triptane and 28-P fuel with a 12-cylinder, V-type, liquid-cooled aircraft engine of 1710-cubic-inch displacement at three compression ratios: 6.65, 7.93, and 9.68. At each compression ratio, the effect of changes in temperature of the inlet air to the auxiliary-stage supercharger and in fuel-air ratio were investigated at engine speeds of 2280 and. 3000 rpm. The results show that knock-limited engine performance, as improved by the use of triptane, allowed operation at both take-off and cruising power at a compression ratio of 9.68. At an inlet-air temperature of 60 deg F, an engine speed of 3000 rpm ; and a fuel-air ratio of 0,095 (approximately take-off conditions), a knock-limited engine output of 1500 brake horsepower was possible with 100-percent 28-R fuel at a compression ratio of 6.65; 20-percent triptane was required for the same power output at a compression ratio of 7.93, and 75 percent at a compression ratio of 9.68 allowed an output of 1480 brake horsepower. Knock-limited power output was more sensitive to changes in fuel-air ratio as the engine speed was increased from 2280 to 3000 rpm, as the compression ratio is raised from 6.65 to 9.68, or as the inlet-air temperature is raised from 0 deg to 120 deg F.
Quantifying the Importance of Rapid Adjustments for Global Precipitation Changes
Different climate drivers influence precipitation in different ways. Here we use radiative kernels to understand the influence of rapid adjustment processes on precipitation in climate models. Rapid adjustments are generally triggered by the initial heating or cooling of the atmosphere from an external climate driver. For precipitation changes, rapid adjustments due to changes in temperature, water vapor, and clouds are most important. In this study we have investigated five climate drivers (CO 2 , CH 4 , solar irradiance, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols). The fast precipitation responses to a doubling of CO 2 and a 10-fold increase in black carbon are found to be similar, despite very different instantaneous changes in the radiative cooling, individual rapid adjustments, and sensible heating. The model diversity in rapid adjustments is smaller for the experiment involving an increase in the solar irradiance compared to the other climate driver perturbations, and this is also seen in the precipitation changes.
Development of an optical sensor for measuring opacity changes in polyvinyl toluene scintillators
Polyvinyl toluene (PVT) based detectors are used in radiation portal monitors (RPMs) worldwide to detect the trafficking of illicit nuclear material. PVT scintillators, which are normally optically clear, have been observed to suffer internal fogging throughout their volume due to prolonged exposure to varying environmental conditions. These changes could lead to reduced performance for RPMs that utilize plastic scintillators. In this research, a proof of concept system, consisting of different color light emitting diodes (LEDs) and a single optical sensor (OS), were used to examine the change in light transmission through a PVT scintillator. This Optical Monitoring System (OMS), coupled with an environmentally exposed PVT detector, was tested in an environmental chamber where it was subjected to changes in temperature and humidity ranging from 55 °C at 100% relative humidity to –20 °C at 40% relative humidity. At temperatures below 10 °C, light transmission was reduced by 81% ± 8% for blue LEDs, 84% ± 5% for yellow LEDs, and 49% ± 4% for green LEDs. Similar reductions in detected light were not recorded when the OMS was tested with only air between the LEDs and OS. Therefore, the significant reductions in transmitted light were attributed to changes occurring within the PVT scintillator. These results indicate that a significant reduction in PVT opacity occurs due to wide environmental changes. A device such as the OMS could be used to track these changes and provide users an early indication that a portal monitor is suffering from reduced performance.
Internal Climate Variability Obscures Future Freezing Rain Changes Despite Global Warming Trend
Abstract Although numerous studies have projected changes in freezing rain under future climate conditions, the internal variability of freezing rain remains poorly quantified. Here, we introduce a framework utilizing a novel machine‐learning algorithm to diagnose freezing rain in reanalysis and climate model simulations. By employing multivariate quantile mapping, we decompose the projected freezing rain trend into contributions from changes in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation, which helps separate the forced response from internal climate variability. Our finding reveals a notable decrease in freezing rain occurrence in most areas. Despite a substantial temperature increase, internal variability overshadows climate forcing across a large portion of the eastern United States until about 2050. This insight has implications for practitioners, suggesting that the observed freezing rain frequency climatology continues to provide a relevant baseline for decision‐making in the near term. However, longer‐term design and adaptation plans should consider the projected changes in these regions.
Mass dependence of the activation enthalpy and entropy of unentangled linear alkane chains
The mass scaling of the self-diffusion coefficient D of polymers in the liquid state, D ∼ M{sup β}, is one of the most basic characteristics of these complex fluids. Although traditional theories such as the Rouse and reptation models of unentangled and entangled polymer melts, respectively, predict that β is constant, this exponent for alkanes has been estimated experimentally to vary from −1.8 to −2.7 upon cooling. Significantly, β changes with temperature T under conditions where the chains are not entangled and at temperatures far above the glass transition temperature T{sub g} where dynamic heterogeneity does not complicate the description of the liquid dynamics. Based on atomistic molecular dynamics simulations on unentangled linear alkanes in the melt, we find that the variation of β with T can be directly attributed to the dependence of the enthalpy ΔH{sub a} and entropy ΔS{sub a} of activation on the number of alkane backbone carbon atoms, n. In addition, we find a sharp change in the melt dynamics near a “critical” chain length, n ≈ 17. A close examination of this phenomenon indicates that a “buckling transition” from rod-like to coiled chain configurations occurs at this characteristic chain length and distinct entropy-enthalpy compensation relations, ΔS{sub a} ∝ ΔH{sub a}, hold on either side of this polymer conformational transition. We conclude that the activation free energy parameters exert a significant influence on the dynamics of polymer melts that is not anticipated by either the Rouse and reptation models. In addition to changes of ΔH{sub a} and ΔS{sub a} with M, we expect changes in these free energy parameters to be crucial for understanding the dynamics of polymer blends, nanocomposites, and confined polymers because of changes of the fluid free energy by interfacial interactions and geometrical confinement.
A New Proposal Generalized Predictive Control Algorithm With Polynomial Reference Tracking Applied for Sodium Fast Reactors
This paper proposes a generalized predictive control (GPC) with constraints and orthonormal Laguerre functions using the simplified model of the primary system (reactor core and intermediate heat exchanger (IHX)) of a prototypical sodium fast reactor (SFR). This paper develops a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) GPC with input constraints able to track polynomial references of any degree applied in coolant temperature difference across the core and fractional power. The manipulated variables of the GPC-SFR are the reactivity and the sodium flow rate of the primary and secondary pipes. Moreover, orthonormal Laguerre functions and step down condition number techniques were also applied to avoid the numerical ill-conditioning issue in quadratic programming of large systems. Thus, a GPC type-2 was designed to control fractional power, coolant temperature difference across the core and sodium tank temperature of the SFR primary system when temperature references change according to a linear ramp after reaching their steady-state operation, sustaining 100% power operation on the reactor. In order to analyze the load tracking capability of the GPC-SFR type-2, the load following from 100% fractional power (FP) to 60% FP at 0.8% FP/min rate is simulated. Constraints on the rate of coolant temperature difference across the core and reactivity were applied for the design safety. For comparison criteria, this paper compares the GPC-SFR type-2 with the GPC-SFR type-1, i.e., standard model predictive control (MPC), to verify the viability and superior performance of the proposal regarding: (a) ramp-tracking capability of temperature and load; (b) the rejections of a reactivity disturbance of -1 cent and a secondary sodium inlet temperature disturbance of +10°F; and (c) a simulation with uncertainty in reactor design. The simulations show that the GPC-SFR type-2 overcome the GPC-SFR type-1 robustness and performance.
Stand Age and Climate Change Effects on Carbon Increments and Stock Dynamics
Carbon assimilation and wood production are influenced by environmental conditions and endogenous factors, such as species auto-ecology, age, and hierarchical position within the forest structure. Disentangling the intricate relationships between those factors is more pressing than ever due to climate change’s pressure. We employed the 3D-CMCC-FEM model to simulate undisturbed forests of different ages under four climate change (plus one no climate change) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios from five Earth system models. In this context, carbon stocks and increment were simulated via total carbon woody stocks and mean annual increment, which depends mainly on climate trends. We find greater differences among different age cohorts under the same scenario than among different climate scenarios under the same age class. Increasing temperature and changes in precipitation patterns led to a decline in above-ground biomass in spruce stands, especially in the older age classes. On the contrary, the results show that beech forests will maintain and even increase C-storage rates under most RCP scenarios. Scots pine forests show an intermediate behavior with a stable stock capacity over time and in different scenarios but with decreasing mean volume annual increment. These results confirm current observations worldwide that indicate a stronger climate-related decline in conifers forests than in broadleaves.
New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report Introduction
The climate of the New York City metropolitan region is changing annual temperatures are hotter, heavy downpours are increasingly frequent, and the sea is rising. These trends, which are also occurring in many parts of the world, are projected to continue and even worsen in the coming decades because of higher concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused by burning of fossil fuels and clearing of forests for agriculture. These changing climate hazards increase the risks for the people, economy, and infrastructure of New York City. As was demonstrated by Hurricane Sandy, coastal and low-lying areas, the elderly and very young, and lower-income neighborhoods are highly vulnerable. In response to these climate challenges, New York City is developing a broad range of climate resiliency policies and programs, as well as the knowledge base to support them. The knowledge base includes up-to-date climate, sea level rise, and coastal flooding projections; a Climate Resiliency Indicators and Monitoring System; and resiliency studies. A special attribute of the New York City response to these challenges is the recognition that both the knowledge base and the programs and policies it supports need to evolve through time as climate risks unfold in the coming decades. In early September 2012, just weeks before Hurricane Sandy hit, the New York City Council passed Local Law 42 that established the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) as an ongoing body serving the City of New York. The NPCC is required to meet at least twice each calendar year to review recent scientific data on climate change and its potential impacts, and to make recommendations on climate projections for the coming decades to the end of the century. These projections are due within one year of the publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports (http:www.ipcc.ch), or at least every three years. The NPCC also advises the Mayor's Office of Sustainability and the Mayor's Office of Recovery and Resiliency (ORR) on the development of a community- or borough-level communications strategy intended to ensure that the public is informed about the findings of the panel, including the creation of a summary of the climate change projections for dissemination to city residents.
Ultrahigh-Loading Manganese-Based Electrodes for Aqueous Batteries via Polymorph Tuning
Manganese-based aqueous batteries utilizing Mn 2+ /MnO 2 redox reactions are promising choices for grid-scale energy storage due to their high theoretical specific capacity, high power capability, low-cost, and intrinsic safety with water-based electrolytes. However, the application of such systems is hindered by the insulating nature of deposited MnO 2 , resulting in low normalized areal loading (0.005–0.05 mAh cm -2 ) during the charge/discharge cycle. Here, in this work, the electrochemical performance of various MnO 2 polymorphs in Mn 2+ /MnO 2 redox reactions is investigated, and ε-MnO 2 with low conductivity is determined to be the primary electrochemically deposited phase in normal acidic aqueous electrolyte. It is found that increasing the temperature can change the deposited phase from ε-MnO 2 with low conductivity to γ-MnO 2 with two order of magnitude increase in conductivity. It is demonstrated that the highly conductive γ-MnO 2 can be effectively exploited for ultrahigh areal loading electrode, and a normalized areal loading of 33 mAh cm -2 is achieved. At a mild temperature of 50 °C, cells are cycled with an ultrahigh areal loading of 20 mAh cm -2 (1–2 orders of magnitude higher than previous studies) for over 200 cycles with only 13% capacity loss.
Mass Spectrometry for Planetary Probes: Past, Present and Future
Atmospheric entry probes present a unique opportunity for performing quantitative analysis of extra-terrestrial atmospheres in cases where remote sensing alone may not be sufficient and measurements with balloons or aircraft is not practical. An entry probe can provide a complete vertical profile of atmospheric parameters including chemical composition, which cannot be obtained with most other techniques. There are, however, unique challenges associated with building instruments for an entry probe, as compared to orbiters, landers, or rovers. Conditions during atmospheric entry are extreme, there are inherent time constraints due to the short duration of the experiment, and the instrument experiences rapid environmental changes in temperature and pressure as it descends. In addition, there are resource limitations, i.e. mass, power, size and bandwidth. Finally, the demands on the instrument design are determined in large part by conditions (pressure, temperature, composition) unique to the particular body under study, and as a result there is no one-size-fits-all instrument for an atmospheric probe. Many of these requirements can be more easily met by miniaturizing the probe instrument. Our experience building mass spectrometers for atmospheric entry probes leads us to believe that the time is right for a fundamental change in the way spaceflight mass spectrometers are built. The emergence over the past twenty years of Micro-electro- mechanical Systems (MEMS), utilizing lithographic semiconductor fabrication techniques to produce instrument systems in miniature, holds great promise for application to spaceflight mass spectrometry. A highly miniaturized, high performance and low-power mass spectrometer would be an enormous benefit to future entry probe missions, allowing, for example, parallel measurements (e.g., multiple simultaneous gas chromatographic analyses and direct atmospheric leaks.) Such an instrument would also enable mass spectrometry on board small multiple entry probes. In the development of a MEMS Mass Spectrometer, the challenge facing us is to move beyond the proof-of-concept, where research dollars tend to focus, and carry out the detailed work of developing a high performance mass spectrometer system on a chip which meets the unique technical requirements for an atmospheric entry probe described above.
Minimum Free-Energy Shapes of Ag Nanocrystals: Vacuum vs Solution
Here, we use two variants of replica-exchange molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, parallel tempering MD and partial replica exchange MD, to probe the minimum free-energy shapes of Ag nanocrystals containing 100–200 atoms in a vacuum, ethylene glycol (EG) solvent, and EG solvent with a PVP polymer containing 100 repeat units. Our simulations reveal a shape intermediate between a Dh and an Ih, a Dh-Ih, that has distinct structural signatures and magic sizes. We find several prominent features associated with entropy: pure FCC nanocrystals are less common than FCC crystals containing stacking faults, and crystals with the minimum potential energy are not always preferred over the range of relevant temperatures. The shapes of the nanocrystals in solution are influenced by the chemical identities of the solution-phase molecules. Comparing Ag nanocrystal shapes in EG to those in an EG+PVP solution, we find more icosahedra in EG and more decahedra in EG+PVP across all of the nanocrystal sizes probed in this study. At certain critical sizes, nanocrystal shapes can change dramatically with the addition and removal of a single atom or with a change in temperature at a fixed size. The information in our study could be useful in efforts to devise processing routes to achieve selective nanocrystal shapes.
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