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NASA NTRS2008

Climate Change Implications to Vegetation Production in Alaska

Investigation of long-term meteorological satellite data revealed statistically significant vegetation response to climate drivers of temperature, precipitation and solar radiation with exclusion of fire disturbance in Alaska. Abiotic trends were correlated to satellite remote sensing observations of normalized difference vegetation index to understand biophysical processes that could impact ecosystem carbon storage. Warming resulted in disparate trajectories for vegetation growth due to precipitation and photosynthetically active radiation variation. Interior spruce forest low lands in late summer through winter had precipitation deficit which resulted in extensive fire disturbance and browning of undisturbed vegetation with reduced post-fire recovery while Northern slope moist alpine tundra had increased production due to warmer-wetter conditions during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Coupled investigation of Alaska s vegetation response to warming climate found spatially dynamic abiotic processes with vegetation browning not a result from increased fire disturbance.

Neigh, Christopher S.R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Optical Properties of Boreal Region Biomass Burning Aerosols in Central Alaska and Seasonal Variation of Aerosol Optical Depth at an Arctic Coastal Site

Long-term monitoring of aerosol optical properties at a boreal forest AERONET site in interior Alaska was performed from 1994 through 2008 (excluding winter). Large interannual variability was observed, with some years showing near background aerosol optical depth (AOD) levels (<0.1 at 500 nm) while 2004 and 2005 had August monthly means similar in magnitude to peak months at major tropical biomass burning regions. Single scattering albedo (omega (sub 0); 440 nm) at the boreal forest site ranged from approximately 0.91 to 0.99 with an average of approximately 0.96 for observations in 2004 and 2005. This suggests a significant amount of smoldering combustion of woody fuels and peat/soil layers that would result in relatively low black carbon mass fractions for smoke particles. The fine mode particle volume median radius during the heavy burning years was quite large, averaging approximately 0.17 micron at AOD(440 nm) = 0.1 and increasing to approximately 0.25 micron at AOD(440 nm) = 3.0. This large particle size for biomass burning aerosols results in a greater relative scattering component of extinction and, therefore, also contributes to higher omega (sub 0). Additionally, monitoring at an Arctic Ocean coastal site (Barrow, Alaska) suggested transport of smoke to the Arctic in summer resulting in individual events with much higher AOD than that occurring during typical spring Arctic haze. However, the springtime mean AOD(500 nm) is higher during late March through late May (approximately 0.150) than during summer months (approximately 0.085) at Barrow partly due to very few days with low background AOD levels in spring compared with many days with clean background conditions in summer.

Eck, T. F.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Resilience of Alaska's Boreal Forest to Climatic Change

This paper assesses the resilience of Alaska s boreal forest system to rapid climatic change. Recent warming is associated with reduced growth of dominant tree species, plant disease and insect outbreaks, warming and thawing of permafrost, drying of lakes, increased wildfire extent, increased postfire recruitment of deciduous trees, and reduced safety of hunters traveling on river ice. These changes have modified key structural features, feedbacks, and interactions in the boreal forest, including reduced effects of upland permafrost on regional hydrology, expansion of boreal forest into tundra, and amplification of climate warming because of reduced albedo (shorter winter season) and carbon release from wildfires. Other temperature-sensitive processes for which no trends have been detected include composition of plant and microbial communities, long-term landscape-scale change in carbon stocks, stream discharge, mammalian population dynamics, and river access and subsistence opportunities for rural indigenous communities. Projections of continued warming suggest that Alaska s boreal forest will undergo significant functional and structural changes within the next few decades that are unprecedented in the last 6000 years. The impact of these social ecological changes will depend in part on the extent of landscape reorganization between uplands and lowlands and on policies regulating subsistence opportunities for rural communities.

Chapin, F. S., III↗

NASA NTRS2012

Report on the 2011 and 2012 NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) / Alaska State Cargo Airship Workshops

This presentation will summarize the Cargo Airships for Northern Operations workshop that was held August 24-25, 2011. This workshop co-sponsored by NASA ARC and the Alaska State Department of Transportation was initiated by interest from Alaska Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell for assistance in investigating the potential benefits of proposed cargo airships for the Alaskan economy and societal needs. The workshop provided a brief background on the technology and operational aspects of conventional airships and hybrids followed by presentations on issues affecting cargo airship operations such as weather management, insurance, regulations, crew duty/rest rules, and available support infrastructures. Speakers representing potential cargo airship users from Alaskan State and commercial organizations presented the needs they felt could be met by cargo airship services. Presenters from Canadian private and military interests also detailed applications and missions that cargo airships could provide to remote regions of Canada. Cost drivers of cargo airship operations were also addressed and tools for modeling and analyzing operational factors and costs affecting cargo airship operations were discussed. Four breakout sessions were held which allowed workshop participants to contribute inputs to four topic areas: Business Approaches and Strategies (financing incentives public/private partnerships etc) for Airship Development and Operation, Design, Development, Production Challenges, and Possible Solutions, Regulatory, Certification, Legal, and Insurance Issues, and Operational Issues, Customer Requirements, and Airship Requirements. A follow on to the 2011 cargo airship workshop is being planned for July 31 August 2, 2012. A status update on this second workshop will also be presented.

Hochstettler, Ronald↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Deglacial and Holocene Record of Climate Variability in South-Central Alaska from Stable Oxygen Isotopes and Plant Macrofossils in Peat

We used stable oxygen isotopes derived from bulk peat (delta-O-18(sub TOM) in conjunction with plant macrofossils and previously published carbon accumulation records, in a approximately14,500 cal yr BP peat core (HT Fen) from the Kenai lowlands in south-central Alaska to reconstruct the climate history of the area. We find that patterns are broadly consistent with those from lacustrine records across the region, and agree with the interpretation that major shifts in delta-O-18(sub TOM) values indicate changes in strength and position of the Aleutian Low (AL), a semi-permanent low-pressure cell that delivers winter moisture to the region. We find decreased strength or a more westerly position of the AL (relatively higher delta-O-18(sub TOM) values) during the Bolling-Allerod, Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), and late Holocene, which also correspond to warmer climate regimes. These intervals coincide with greater peat preservation and enhanced carbon (C) accumulation rates at the HT Fen and with peatland expansion across Alaska. The HTM in particular may have experienced greater summer precipitation as a result of an enhanced Pacific subtropical high, a pattern consistent with modern delta-O-18 values for summer precipitation. The combined warm summer temperatures and greater summer precipitation helped promote the observed rapid peat accumulation. A strengthened AL (relatively lower delta-O-18(sub TOM) values) is most evident during the Younger Dryas, Neoglaciation, and the Little Ice Age, consistent with lower peat preservation and C accumulation at the HT Fen, suggesting less precipitation reaches the leeward side of the Kenai Mountains during periods of enhanced AL strength. The peatlands on the Kenai Peninsula thrive when the AL is weak and the contribution of summer precipitation is higher, highlighting the importance of precipitation seasonality in promoting peat accumulation. This study demonstrates that delta-O-18(sub TOM) values in peat can be applied toward understand large-scale shifts in atmospheric circulation over millennial timescales.

Holocene↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Probabilistic Method of Assessing Carbon Accumulation Rate at Imnavait Creek Peatland, Arctic Long Term Ecological Research Station, Alaska

Arctic peatlands are an important part of the global carbon cycle, accumulating atmospheric carbon as organic matter since the Late glacial. Current methods for understanding the changing efficiency of the peatland carbon sink rely on peatlands with an undisturbed stratigraphy. Here we present a method of estimating primary carbon accumulation rate from a site where permafrost processes have either vertically or horizontally translocated nearby carbon-rich sediment out of stratigraphic order. Briefly, our new algorithm estimates the probability of the age of deposition of a random increment of sediment in the core. The method assumes that if sediment age is measured at even depth increments, dates are more likely to occur during intervals of higher accumulation rate and vice versa. Multiplying estimated sedimentation rate by measured carbon density yields carbon accumulation rate. We perform this analysis at the Imnavait Creek Peatland, near the Arctic Long Term Ecological Research network site at Toolik Lake, Alaska. Using classical radiocarbon age modeling, we find unreasonably high rates of carbon accumulation at various Holocene intervals. With our new method, we find accumulation rate changes that are in improved agreement within the context of other sites throughout Alaska and the rest of the Circum-Arctic region.

carbon accumulation;Imnavait;peatlands;permafrost;↗

NASA NTRS2018

Ecosystem Carbon Emissions from 2015 Forest Fires in Interior Alaska

In the summer of 2015, hundreds of wildfires burned across the state of Alaska, and consumed more than 1.6 million ha of boreal forest and wetlands in the Yukon-Koyukuk region. Mapping of 113 large wildfires using Landsat satellite images from before and after 2015 indicated that nearly 60% of this area was burned at moderate-to-high severity levels. Field measurements near the town of Tanana on the Yukon River were carried out in July of 2017 in both unburned and 2015 burned forested areas (nearly adjacent to one-another) to visually verify locations of different Landsat burn severity classes (low, moderate, or high). Results: Field measurements indicated that the loss of surface organic layers in boreal ecosystem fires is a major factor determining post-fire soil temperature changes, depth of thawing, and carbon losses from the mineral topsoil layer. Measurements in forest sites showed that soil temperature profiles to 30 cm depth at burned forest sites increased by an average of 8o - 10o C compared to unburned forest sites. Sampling and laboratory analysis indicated a 65% reduction in soil carbon content and a 58% reduction in soil nitrogen content in severely burned sample sites compared to soil mineral samples from nearby unburned spruce forests. Conclusions: Combined with nearly unprecedented forest areas severely burned in the Interior region of Alaska in 2015, total ecosystem fire emission of carbon to the atmosphere exceeded most previous estimates for the state.

Ecosystem↗

NASA NTRS2018

Evaluating the WRF-Hydro Modeling System in Alaska

National Water Model (NWM) implemented operationally in August 2016 to improve hydrological prediction (OWP, 2017). (1) Four operational configurations (2) Only covers contiguous United States (US). NWM is instantiation of Weather Research and Forecasting model hydrological extension package (WRF-Hydro)(Gochis et al., 2013) coupled with Noah Land Surface Model with Multi-Parameterization options (Noah-MP)(Niu et al., 2011). WRF-Hydro is extensible, high-resolution hydrologic routing and streamflow modeling framework, coupling column land surface, terrain routing, and channel routing modules (NCAR, 2017). This project uses experimental version of WRF-Hydro in Alaska mimicking the NWM to: (1) Identify modeling challenges for NWM development in Alaska (2) Assess WRF-Hydro and NWM ability to represent unique hydrological processes of arctic regions and accurately predict high and low flow events (3) Examine impacts of assimilating Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) (Biancamaria et al., 2016) observations to improve model initialization.

Hydrology↗

NASA NTRS2018

Initial Implementation and Operational Use of TASAR in Alaska Airlines Flight Operations

NASA has been developing and testing the Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests (TASAR) concept for aircraft operations featuring a NASA-developed cockpit automation tool, the Traffic Aware Planner (TAP), which computes route changes compatible with nearby traffic and airspace constraints to improve flight efficiency. The TAP technology is anticipated to save fuel, flight time, and operating costs and thereby provide immediate and pervasive benefits to the aircraft operator. Alaska Airlines is partnered with NASA to implement and evaluate TASAR in revenue service. This paper will describe activities undertaken to achieve TASAR operational status at Alaska Airlines, and it will present preliminary results from initial flight operations.

Wing, David J.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Initial TASAR Operations Onboard Alaska Airlines

NASA and Alaska Airlines jointly conducted an operational evaluation of NASA’s Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Request (TASAR) concept. Featuring a NASA-developed cockpit automation tool, the Traffic Aware Planner (TAP), and leveraging the emerging “connected aircraft” architecture, TASAR enables pilots to identify route changes compatible with nearby traffic and airspace constraints that improve flight efficiency and are more likely to receive Air Traffic Control approval. TASAR was developed in anticipation of saving fuel and flight time, thereby providing immediate and pervasive benefits to the aircraft operator. Following a previously reported, extensive program of integration and preliminary in-flight testing, the operational evaluation of TASAR in revenue service by Alaska Airlines took place from July 2018 to April 2019. This paper describes the operational evaluation, the methodology for quantifying operational benefits, preliminary benefit results, and other unexpected impacts of TASAR operations during revenue flights. Based on the subset of data available at publication, preliminary estimated benefits averaged about $92 per flight across all flights including those without benefit. Identified factors indicate the estimated benefit per flight was likely a conservative estimate. Benefit categories including home runs, cumulative small gains, and plan validation benefits are illustrated with specific examples observed during the operational evaluation.

Wing, David J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Boundary-Layer Cloud Modeling Challenges on the North Slope of Alaska

The accurate modeling and prediction of cloud base heights is critical for energy balance calculations and aviation operations, alike. Low-level (i.e., boundary-layer) Arctic clouds can be difficult to model, making prediction of formation and dissipation challenging. Primarily mixed-phase, these clouds typically contain low quantities of supercooled liquid water and often slowly precipitate relatively small amounts of moderately and heavily rimed snow particles. While this appears to be the predominant cloudy state on the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), the delicate balance of microphysical, dynamical, radiative, surface coupling, and advective processes can rapidly shift to heavy snow (with various degrees of riming) or to a complete dissipation of the cloud layer without any precipitation, depending on the dominant processes. Here we strive to disentangle these various processes. First, we compare the predictive performances of four different numerical weather models in forecasting the presence and base-heights of low-level clouds: the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh - Alaska (HRRR-AK) model, the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (Polar WRF) model, the Unified Model (UM), and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model. Initial results comparing model output at two U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (AMT) NSA sites, during the fall season in 2019 and 2022, show that the UM slightly outperforms the HRRR-AK in terms of accurately forecasting the presence of a low-level cloud layer (89% of the time). All models have a significant bias of 300 to 800 meters in forecasting cloud base height (lower than is observed); however, the UM and ECMWF models have the lowest biases. Finally, a case study for a particularly challenging April 2017 thin-cloud event is presented, wherein we compare the performance of four different bulk microphysical parameterization schemes using a higher-resolution large eddy simulation (LES) model, the WRF-LES. Initial results show that the Thompson scheme was the only one able to reproduce and sustain a substantial supercooled liquid layer, but it was unable to reproduce the transition from a deep, liquid-rich cloud to a thin layer with moderately and heavily rimed precipitation. This is the first step in linking simulated LES-scale riming processes with those parameterized at a coarser mesoscale model scale. This has important implications for forecasting low-level clouds in an operational environment, given the efficiency of the riming process.

cloud base heights↗

DOE OSTI2024

Challenges and Opportunities for Basic Efficiency Measures in Low-Income Homes: A Southeast Alaska Case Study

Juneau, Alaska is the state's capital city and has a renewable energy goal to reach 80% renewable energy for the space heating and transportation sectors by 2045. In practical terms, this indicates a need to electrify both sectors, to take advantage of the inexpensive hydropower available from the local electric utility, Alaska Energy Light & Power. In an effort to complement and enable electrification, researchers examined the feasibility to deploy storm windows via a case study of installing storm windows in two local low-income homes. Newer models of storm windows provide an extra layer of insulation over existing windows, while preserving operability and views. They can also improve comfort and reduce noise. Researchers worked with the regional housing authority and a local builder to install the storm windows and replace inoperable windows in the two houses in 2021, in addition to conducting pre- and post-installation air leakage tests, energy monitoring, and occupant interviews. The team encountered several challenges, including a lack of egress windows, energy data from a wide variety of heating systems, extremely leaky homes, and installation issues such as windows that were not square. These results point to several barriers to widespread deployment of storm windows in the area, but also open the door to opportunities to design deployment programs that improve safety as well as efficiency.

cold climate↗

DOE OSTI2024

Challenges and Opportunities for Basic Efficiency Measures in Low-Income Homes: A Southeast Alaska Case Study

Juneau, Alaska, is the state's capital city and aims to reach 80% renewable energy for the space heating and transportation sectors by 2045. This goal highlights a need to electrify both sectors to take advantage of the inexpensive hydropower available from the local electric utility, Alaska Electric Light and Power. To that end, researchers examined the feasibility of deploying storm windows via a case study of installing storm windows in two local low-income homes. Newer models of storm windows provide an extra layer of insulation over existing windows while preserving operability and views. They can also improve comfort and reduce noise. In addition to conducting pre- and post-installation air leakage tests, energy monitoring, and occupant interviews, researchers worked with the regional housing authority and a local builder to install the storm windows and replace inoperable windows in the two houses in 2021. The team encountered several challenges, including a lack of egress windows, energy data from a wide variety of heating systems, extremely leaky homes, and installation issues, such as windows that were not square. These results point to several barriers to the widespread deployment of window upgrades in the area and open the door to opportunities to design deployment programs that improve safety and efficiency.

cold climate↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi‐Sensor Trajectory Reconstruction of the 24 April 2025 Alaska Fireball and Implications for Planetary Defense

On 24 April 2025 at 18:30:57 UTC, a bright daytime fireball over Southcentral Alaska was detected by 37 seismic stations, 16 single infrasound sensors, and four infrasound arrays, yielding 30 ballistic and multiple fragmentation arrivals. Here, the unprecedented density of seismoacoustic coverage enabled detailed reconstruction of the event using acoustic signals, with fragmentation source locations further guiding the identification of Doppler weather radar signatures of a meteorite fall. Incorporation of a radar-derived terminal point yielded a final trajectory solution, which agreed closely with an independent optical trajectory solution from video analysis. The reconstructed entry parameters from seismoacoustic analysis indicate a velocity of 25.3 km/s, an entry angle of 19°, and an energy release of ∼38 t TNT equivalent. Assuming a chondritic composition, the pre-entry object diameter was ∼0.7 m. Using orbital parameters from the optical solution, we estimate meteoroid composition as most likely an L-type ordinary chondrite. The event occurred in the sub-Arctic, where space-based optical systems face challenges in detection, demonstrating the critical role of dense ground-based seismoacoustic networks in characterizing high-latitude atmospheric entries. This uniquely well-recorded event demonstrates the capability of dense seismoacoustic networks to constrain bolide trajectories, energetics, and fragmentation, with radar and optical data providing critical confirmation and complementary perspectives. These results bridge the methodological gap between planetary-defense monitoring of natural impactors and space-traffic analyses of artificial reentries, illustrating how multi-sensor integration can deliver calibration-grade trajectories even for unpredicted events.

Fireball↗

DOE OSTI2026

Temperature Inversions below 1 km from a V-Band Scanning Radiometer at the North Slope of Alaska

A single-channel (56.7 GHz) scanning radiometer was deployed in August 2022 at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska site near Utqiaġvik. The radiometer is designed to provide temperature profiles between 0 and 1 km every 5 min. Averaging kernels show that this single-channel radiometer, taking observations at 10 discrete elevation angles, yields approximately the same information as a seven-channel V-band radiometer scanning three elevation angles. The instrument is able to reproduce the occurrence of temperature inversions between the surface and 1 km and their strength showing a correlation of 0.85, bias of −0.6 K, and slope of 1.04 with respect to radiosondes. Uncertainty in the inversion base height varies from 50 m near the surface to ∼300 m above 0.4 km when compared with radiosondes. Conversely, the inversion top height is overestimated and has higher uncertainty due to the degrading effects of the averaging kernels on the vertical resolution of the retrievals. Thanks to the high temporal resolution of the retrievals, the diurnal cycle of boundary layer temperature was evaluated showing that the radiometer can capture some aspects of the boundary layer thermal structure. The present analysis provides an overview of the capabilities of this simple observing configuration for selected applications.

Atmospheric profilers↗

DOE OSTI2025

Drivers of Historical and Future Coastal Runoff Across the Arctic and Sub‐Arctic Subregions of Alaska, USA

This study investigates historical and future coastal runoff across the Arctic and sub-Arctic subregions of Alaska, USA, emphasising changes in terrestrial hydrology and their implications for coastal discharge. Using the physically based SnowModel-HydroFlow framework, historical (1991–2020) and future (2071–2100) coastal discharge climatologies were simulated, incorporating meteorological, topographic, and land cover inputs. Results reveal distinct seasonal and spatial patterns in temperature, precipitation, and snow dynamics across the Beaufort, Chukchi, Yukon, and Bristol subregions. Future projections suggest significant warming and shifts in hydrological regimes, such as increased annual precipitation and coastal discharge totals. Following a high emissions, business as usual pathway (SSP5-8.5), coastal discharge hydrographs in the Beaufort and Yukon subregions remain snow dominated with increases in discharge in nearly all months, while Chukchi and Bristol subregions shift from snow dominated to rain dominated. These changes are linked to rising temperatures, decreasing snow precipitation fractions, and altered freezing levels, with implications for water storage, timing, and availability. This research provides insights into the drivers and consequences of hydrological changes in a rapidly warming Arctic, supporting efforts to predict and mitigate the impacts on coastal and marine ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Oil in Alaska North Slope Gas Hydrate Reservoir: Micro-CT and Flow Simulation Insights into Permeability

Gas hydrate-bearing sands on the Alaska North Slope (ANS) host minor volumes of crude oil whose impact on formation permeability has never been quantified relative to a gas hydrate reservoir system. Here, we combine in situ pressure-core microcomputed-tomography (μ-CT), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), gas-chromatography–mass-spectrometry (GC–MS), scanning-electron microscopy coupled with energy-dispersive spectroscopy (SEM-EDS), and Stokes-flow simulation to (i) quantify oil saturation, (ii) infer its source, and (iii) evaluate its influence on permeability after gas-hydrate dissociation. μ-CT and SEM-EDS imaging identify the host sediment as silty, with some grain-coating clay present. Eight representative 3003-voxel subvolumes extracted from a preserved pressure core (Core 15P-3c, from the B1 sand (unit B), HYDRATE 02 Geo Data Well (GDW), 886.96–887.29 m measured depth, MD) exhibit porosities of 0.34–0.37 and an average oil saturation of 0.09 ± 0.03, in comparison to an independent TGA-based estimate of 0.16. GC-MS fingerprints obtained from an adjacent depressurized core (Core 17P-1, 891.37–891.44 m MD), together with oil pore habit revealed by μ-CT, suggest that the oil is partly native but also includes contributions from mineral oil-based drilling fluid contamination. Further analysis of oil–porewater interactions and flushing tests confirms that native oil saturation in the analyzed samples ranges from 0.04 to 0.08 with an average of approximately 0.06, and the oil is highly immobile. Flow simulations demonstrate that the native oil saturation of ≈0.06 reduces permeability by approximately 50% due to both pore blockage and increased flow-path tortuosity. These findings reveal the potential presence of native oil within the ANS gas hydrate reservoir and suggest that future simulation models may need to account for its impact on permeability to improve long-term performance predictions of gas and water production.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of Seismic Wave Amplification in Sedimentary Basins Using 3D Wavefield Simulations: Nenana Basin, Central Alaska

We investigate seismic wave amplification in Nenana basin, central Alaska, using 3D seismic wavefield simulations. We quantify frequency-dependent amplification by comparing synthetic seismograms among four different seismic velocity models: (a) a tomographic model, (b) a tomographic model with the uppermost 6.5 km replaced by a 1D basin profile, (c) a tomographic model with an embedded ellipsoidal basin, and (d) a tomographic model with an embedded realistic basin. For each model we perform wavefield simulations accurate up to 2 Hz for a set of 10 different earthquakes, which provide a range of frequencies and incident angles for waves interacting with the basin. Average amplification ratios are four on the horizontal components and seven on the vertical component. The dominant influence of the amplification is the 3D geometry of the basin, not the slow-velocity profile near the surface. Our synthetic amplification ratios are in general agreement with amplification estimates obtained from 14 stations that recorded the same set of earthquakes. Our approach offers a general strategy for documenting frequency-dependent basin amplification for a region with realistic basin structures and local earthquakes.

Geosciences↗