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NASA NTRS1990

Viral coefficient and hidden mass in the galaxy groups

The purpose is the verification of the virial mass estimations for small galaxy groups. The dynamical evolution of triple and quintuple galaxies was studied by the numerical simulations. The dependence of the virial coefficient k(t) versus time was derived. Initial k(O) = O. The function k(t) has some strong oscillations from 0.02 to 0.99. Generally, these oscillations are quasiperiodical ones. Such a behavior of k(t) is caused by formation in a system of close isolated temporary double subsystems. A strong correlation between the virial coefficient and the least mutual distance in the system is observed. Such wide oscillations may add into the estimation of virial mass of the galaxy groups an uncertainty of more than one order. An additional uncertainty is introduced by the projection effect. This uncertainty for the individual estimations of the masses approach three orders. Thus any individual estimation of the virial mass is impossible for small galaxy groups. Some possibility of statistical estimation (median or average) of the total mass, including a hidden mass, is shown for the homogeneous samples. The authors propose a method for these estimations based on a comparison of the medians of dynamical parameters (a mean size in projection and a dispersion of relative radial velocities) for the simulated and observed ensembles of the galaxy groups. This method has been applied to a sample of 46 probably physical triplets of galaxies. The probable median of the hidden mass in a volume of the triplet is about 4 M, where M is the total mass of visible matter.

Anosova, Joanna P.↗

NASA NTRS1991

NDE of ceramics and ceramic composites

Although nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques for ceramics are fairly well developed, they are difficult to apply in many cases for high probability detection of the minute flaws that can cause failure in monolithic ceramics. Conventional NDE techniques are available for monolithic and fiber reinforced ceramic matrix composites, but more exact quantitative techniques needed are still being investigated and developed. Needs range from flaw detection to below 100 micron levels in monolithic ceramics to global imaging of fiber architecture and matrix densification anomalies in ceramic composites. NDE techniques that will ultimately be applicable to production and quality control of ceramic structures are still emerging from the lab. Needs are different depending on the processing stage, fabrication method, and nature of the finished product. NDE techniques are being developed in concert with materials processing research where they can provide feedback information to processing development and quality improvement. NDE techniques also serve as research tools for materials characterization and for understanding failure processes, e.g., during thermomechanical testing.

Vary, Alex↗

NASA NTRS1993

NDE of ceramics and ceramic composites

Vary, Alex A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Design and Demonstration of Emergency Control Modes for Enhanced Engine Performance

A design concept is presented for developing control modes that enhance aircraft engine performance during emergency flight scenarios. The benefits of increased engine performance to overall vehicle survivability during these situations may outweigh the accompanied elevated risk of engine failure. The objective involves building control logic that can consistently increase engine performance beyond designed maximum levels based on an allowable heightened probability of failure. This concept is applied to two previously developed control modes: an overthrust mode that increases maximum engine thrust output and a faster response mode that improves thrust response to dynamic throttle commands. This paper describes the redesign of these control modes and presents simulation results demonstrating both enhanced engine performance and robust maintenance of the desired elevated risk level.

aircraft engine simulation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Practical Approach to Uncertainty Quantification Using Probability Boxes

To date, while the use of CFD for aerospace vehicle design and development is prevalent, the documentation of uncertainties associated with the simulations are rare. Instead, the current state-of-the-art relies heavily on the experience of the CFD practitioner to estimate the uncertainty associated with their simulations through simple sensitivity studies or subject matter expertise. This practice will have to be replaced with a formal uncertainty quantification (UQ) process if CFD is to play an expanded role in the research and engineering design community, test and evaluation community, and ultimately certification for flight. Accounting for uncertainties in a formal manner is a tedious process. Moreover, the typical CFD practitioner is not likely to be familiar with formal UQ methods. These factors have prevented the adoption of UQ methods in the engineering design and development cycle. This presentation will outline a credible approach to UQ using Probability Boxes that is straightforward to apply, and can readily be automated using existing UQ tool sets such as the DAKOTA packaged developed at Sandia. The added expense incurred when moving away from a deterministic CFD process to a stochastic one that captures uncertainties to enable risk-informed decision making will be discussed, as well as effective ways to reduce the computational costs.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

DOE OSTI2014

Poly-Gaussian model of randomly rough surface in rarefied gas flow

Surface roughness is simulated by the model of non-Gaussian random process. Our results for the scattering of rarefied gas atoms from a rough surface using modified approach to the DSMC calculation of rarefied gas flow near a rough surface are developed and generalized applying the poly-Gaussian model representing probability density as the mixture of Gaussian densities. The transformation of the scattering function due to the roughness is characterized by the roughness operator. Simulating rough surface of the walls by the poly-Gaussian random field expressed as integrated Wiener process, we derive a representation of the roughness operator that can be applied in numerical DSMC methods as well as in analytical investigations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multifidelity Active Learning for Failure Estimation of TRISO Nuclear Fuel

The Tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel is a robust nuclear fuel proposed to be used for multiple modern nuclear technologies. Therefore, characterizing its safety is vital for the reliable operation of nuclear technologies. However, the TRISO fuel failure probabilities are small and the computational model is time consuming to evaluate them using traditional Monte Carlo-type approaches. In the paper, we present a multifidelity active learning approach to efficiently estimate small failure probabilities given an expensive computational model. Active learning suggests the next best training set for optimal subsequent predictive performance and multifidelity modeling uses cheaper low-fidelity models to approximate the high-fidelity model output. After presenting the multifidelity active learning approach, we apply it to efficiently predict TRISO failure probability and make comparisons to the reference results.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2014

BANYAN. II. Very low mass and substellar candidate members to nearby, young kinematic groups with previously known signs of youth

We present Bayesian Analysis for Nearby Young AssociatioNs II (BANYAN II), a modified Bayesian analysis for assessing the membership of later-than-M5 objects to any of several Nearby Young Associations (NYAs). In addition to using kinematic information (from sky position and proper motion), this analysis exploits 2MASS-WISE color-magnitude diagrams in which old and young objects follow distinct sequences. As an improvement over our earlier work, the spatial and kinematic distributions for each association are now modeled as ellipsoids whose axes need not be aligned with the Galactic coordinate axes, and we use prior probabilities matching the expected populations of the NYAs considered versus field stars. We present an extensive contamination analysis to characterize the performance of our new method. We find that Bayesian probabilities are generally representative of contamination rates, except when a parallax measurement is considered. In this case contamination rates become significantly smaller and hence Bayesian probabilities for NYA memberships are pessimistic. We apply this new algorithm to a sample of 158 objects from the literature that are either known to display spectroscopic signs of youth or have unusually red near-infrared colors for their spectral type. Based on our analysis, we identify 25 objects as new highly probable candidates to NYAs, including a new M7.5 bona fide member to Tucana-Horologium, making it the latest-type member. In addition, we reveal that a known L2γ dwarf is co-moving with a bright M5 dwarf, and we show for the first time that two of the currently known ultra red L dwarfs are strong candidates to the AB Doradus moving group. Several objects identified here as highly probable members to NYAs could be free-floating planetary-mass objects if their membership is confirmed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Constructing probability boxes and Dempster-Shafer structures

This report summarizes a variety of the most useful and commonly applied methods for obtaining Dempster-Shafer structures, and their mathematical kin probability boxes, from empirical information or theoretical knowledge. The report includes a review of the aggregation methods for handling agreement and conflict when multiple such objects are obtained from different sources.

Ferson, Scott↗

DOE OSTI2013

CMB and random flights: temperature and polarization in position space

The fluctuations in the temperature and polarization of the cosmic microwave background are described by a hierarchy of Boltzmann equations. In its integral form, this Boltzmann hierarchy can be converted from the usual Fourier-space base into a position-space and causal description. We show that probability densities for random flights play a key role in this description. The integral system can be treated as a perturbative series in the number of steps of the random flights, and the properties of random flight probabilities impose constraints on the domains of dependence. We show that, as a result of these domains, a Fourier-Bessel decomposition can be employed in order to calculate the random flight probability densities. We also illustrate how the H-theorem applies to the cosmic microwave background: by using analytical formulae for the asymptotic limits of these probability densities, we show that, as the photon distribution approaches a state of equilibrium, both the temperature anisotropies and the net polarization must vanish.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2011

Stabilization of circular Rydberg atoms by circularly polarized infrared laser fields

The ionization dynamics of circular Rydberg states in strong circularly polarized infrared (800 nm) laser fields is studied by means of numerical simulations with the time-dependent Schroedinger equation. We find that at certain intensities, related to the radius of the Rydberg states, atomic stabilization sets in, and the ionization probability decreases as the intensity is further increased. Moreover, there is a strong dependence of the ionization probability on the rotational direction of the applied laser field, which can be understood from a simple classical analogy.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2010

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions

When facing a conjunction between space objects, decision makers must chose whether to maneuver for collision avoidance or not. We apply a well-known decision procedure, the sequential probability ratio test, to this problem. We propose two approaches to the problem solution, one based on a frequentist method, and the other on a Bayesian method. The frequentist method does not require any prior knowledge concerning the conjunction, while the Bayesian method assumes knowledge of prior probability densities. Our results show that both methods achieve desired missed detection rates, but the frequentist method's false alarm performance is inferior to the Bayesian method's

Carpenter, J. Russell↗

DOE OSTI2012

Follow-on to a report on the Applicability of the “Gallet equation” to the vegetation clearances of NERC Reliability Standard FAC-003-2

In earlier work, a study done at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory examined a NERC proposed standard specifying clearances between vegetation and power lines. The method proposed for calculating the clearances was based on the results of testing for high-voltage line designs. An equation developed to relate the results of testing with rod-plane gaps to proposed tower window sizes was incorporated into the calculations. The equation in question, sometimes called the “Gallet equation,” describes the insulation performance of the atmosphere for air gaps of a few meters. The equation was described in the PNNL study as a good and simple-to-use way to solve a problem made difficult by the nonlinear interactions of the variables. For calculations based on this equation, a certain set of assumptions must be made. In particular, a value for a quantity called the “gap factor” is needed. This is the amount by which the gap to be modeled by the equation is stronger than the reference gap that was used in developing the Gallet equation. That reference gap is the gap between a rod and a plane. This follow-on report examines the effect on flashover probabilities of assuming an incorrect value for the gap factor. In particular, the flashover probability is found that would result from using a value of 1.3 when a gap factor of 1.0 should be applied. It is shown that with these assumptions the probability of a flashover changes from being extremely unlikely (about 1 in 1000 chance) to a virtual certainty (about 97% chance).

high voltage: flashover: Gallet equation↗

NASA NTRS1993

A Numerical Round Robin for the Reliability Prediction of Structural Ceramics

A round robin has been conducted on integrated fast fracture design programs for brittle materials. An informal working group (WELFEP-WEakest Link failure probability prediction by Finite Element Postprocessors) was formed to discuss and evaluate the implementation of the programs examined in the study. Results from the study have provided insight on the differences between the various programs examined. Conclusions from the study have shown that when brittle materials are used in design, analysis must understand how to apply the concepts presented herein to failure probability analysis.

Powers, Lynn M.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Moving Beyond Mortality: Development and Application of a Desirability of Outcome Ranking (DOOR) Endpoint for Hospital-Acquired Bacterial Pneumonia and Ventilator-Associated Bacterial Pneumonia

Abstract Background Hospital-acquired and ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia (HABP/VABP) are frequently caused by multidrug-resistant organisms. Patient-centered endpoints in clinical trials are needed to develop new antibiotics for HABP/VABP. Desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) is a paradigm for the design, analysis, and interpretation of clinical trials based on a patient-centered, benefit-risk evaluation. Methods A multidisciplinary committee created an infectious diseases DOOR endpoint customized for HABP/VABP, incorporating infectious complications, serious adverse events, and mortality. We applied this to 2 previously completed, large randomized controlled trials for HABP/VABP. ZEPHyR compared vancomycin to linezolid and VITAL compared linezolid to tedizolid. For each trial, we evaluated the DOOR distribution and probability, including DOOR component and partial credit analyses. We also applied DOOR in subgroup analyses. Results In both trials, the HABP/VABP DOOR demonstrated similar overall clinical outcomes between treatment groups. In ZEPHyR, the probability that a participant treated with linezolid would have a more desirable outcome than a participant treated with vancomycin was 50.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 45.1%−55.3%). In VITAL, the probability that a participant treated with tedizolid would have a more desirable outcome than a participant treated with linezolid was 48.7% (95% CI, 44.8%–52.6%). The DOOR component analysis revealed that participants treated with tedizolid had a less desirable outcome than those treated with linezolid when considering clinical response alone. However, participants with decreased renal function had improved overall outcomes with tedizolid. Conclusions The HABP/VABP DOOR provided more granular information about clinical outcomes than is typically presented in clinical trials. HABP/VABP trials would benefit from prospectively using DOOR.

Immunology↗

NASA NTRS1974

Optimal design of an unsupervised adaptive classifier with unknown priors

An adaptive detection scheme for M hypotheses was analyzed. It was assumed that the probability density function under each hypothesis was known, and that the prior probabilities of the M hypotheses were unknown and sequentially estimated. Each observation vector was classified using the current estimate of the prior probabilities. Using a set of nonlinear transformations, and applying stochastic approximation theory, an optimally converging adaptive detection and estimation scheme was designed. The optimality of the scheme lies in the fact that convergence to the true prior probabilities is ensured, and that the asymptotic error variance is minimum, for the class of nonlinear transformations considered. An expression for the asymptotic mean square error variance of the scheme was also obtained.

Kazakos, D.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Updates to Relevance Vector Machine: Multiclass Classification, Variable Selection, and Proof-of-Concept Application to Safeguards Fresh Fuel Verification using List-Mode Neutron Collar Data

To expand the capabilities of safeguards authorities to verify the integrity of fresh fuel assemblies, Oak Ridge National Laboratory has retrofit the existing electronics of the JCC-71 uranium neutron coincidence collar, which contains 18 3 He neutron detectors and an external 241 AmLi(α, n) neutron interrogation source arranged to surround a fresh nuclear fuel assembly. The new electronics system allows analysts to record list-mode neutron multiplicity data in addition to the singles and doubles rates that are currently measured. Based on previous proof-of-concept research, analysis of these new data will identify off-normal fuel configurations in an assembly and characterize or localize the specific partial fuel defects. The purpose of this report it to document the analysis algorithm development and then to demonstrate its capability for the safeguards verification of fresh fuel assemblies using list mode neutron collar data. To analyze the complex list-mode data collected with the upgraded uranium neutron collar, multivariate classification algorithms are being developed using a novel classification method, the relevance vector machine. This approach may be applied to multiclass problems to estimate the probability that test data belongs to one of many possible classes of data. In addition, our method identifies the most useful variables/channels for making predictions, which illuminates the basis for the model’s predictions, and this interpretability is largely unique among data analytics methods. Variable selection occurs during model training and parameter tuning and does not need any external hyperparameter tuning routines. Finally, we apply the modified relevance vector machine to a simulated dataset of list-mode neutron collar data generated with the radiation transport code MCNP. The method can correctly identify off-normal fuel configurations, categorize the data according to four fuel defect scenarios, and rank the channels in the data according to prediction utility. For nuclear safeguards applications, it is concluded that this method has the potential to increase the sensitivity and reliability to detect missing fuel rods from a standard 17 x 17 Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) fresh fuel assembly. Within this analysis, “off-normal” (i.e., missing fuel rods) were correctly classified in 17 simulated test scenarios with one quarter (25%) of the fresh fuel rods missing using a training data set of 58 simulated measurements.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2013

A flexible numerical approach for quantification of epistemic uncertainty

In the field of uncertainty quantification (UQ), epistemic uncertainty often refers to the kind of uncertainty whose complete probabilistic description is not available, largely due to our lack of knowledge about the uncertainty. Quantification of the impacts of epistemic uncertainty is naturally difficult, because most of the existing stochastic tools rely on the specification of the probability distributions and thus do not readily apply to epistemic uncertainty. And there have been few studies and methods to deal with epistemic uncertainty. A recent work can be found in [J. Jakeman, M. Eldred, D. Xiu, Numerical approach for quantification of epistemic uncertainty, J. Comput. Phys. 229 (2010) 4648–4663], where a framework for numerical treatment of epistemic uncertainty was proposed. The method is based on solving an encapsulation problem, without using any probability information, in a hypercube that encapsulates the unknown epistemic probability space. If more probabilistic information about the epistemic variables is known a posteriori, the solution statistics can then be evaluated at post-process steps. In this paper, we present a new method, similar to that of Jakeman et al. but significantly extending its capabilities. Most notably, the new method (1) does not require the encapsulation problem to be in a bounded domain such as a hypercube; (2) does not require the solution of the encapsulation problem to converge point-wise. In the current formulation, the encapsulation problem could reside in an unbounded domain, and more importantly, its numerical approximation could be sought in L{sup p} norm. These features thus make the new approach more flexible and amicable to practical implementation. Both the mathematical framework and numerical analysis are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new approach.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗