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NASA NTRS2007

The Physical Nature of Polar Broad Absorption Line Quasars

It has been shown based on radio variability arguments that some BALQSOs (broad absorption line quasars) are viewed along the polar axis (o rthogonal to accretion disk) in the recent article of Zhou et a. Thes e arguments are based on the brightness temperature, T(sub b) exceedi ng 10(exp 12) K which leads to the well-known inverse Compton catastr ophe unless the radio jet is relativistic and is viewed along its axi s. In this letter, we expand the Zhou et al sample of polar BALQSOs u sing their techniques applied to SDSS DR5. In the process, we clarify a mistake in their calculation of brightness temperature. The expanded sample of high T(sub b) BALQSOS, has an inordinately large fraction of LoBALQSOs (low ionization BALQSOs). We consider this an important clue to understanding the nature of the polar BALQSOs. This is expec ted in the polar BALQSO analytical/numerical models of Punsly that pr edicted that LoBALQSOs occur when the line of sight is very close to the polar axis, where the outflow density is the highest.

Ghost, Kajal↗

NASA NTRS2006

The Phase Curve Survey of the Irregular Saturnian Satellites: A Possible Method of Physical Classification

During its 2005 January opposition, the saturnian system could be viewed at an unusually low phase angle. We surveyed a subset of Saturn's irregular satellites to obtain their true opposition magnitudes, or nearly so, down to phase angle values of 0.01 deg. Combining our data taken at the Palomar 200-inch and Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory's 4-m Blanco telescope with those in the literature, we present the first phase curves for nearly half the irregular satellites originally reported by Gladman et al. [2001. Nature 412, 163-166], including Paaliaq (SXX), Siarnaq (SXXIX), Tarvos (SXXI), Ijiraq (SXXII), Albiorix (SXVI), and additionally Phoebe's narrowest angle brightness measured to date. We find centaur-like steepness in the phase curves or opposition surges in most cases with the notable exception of three, Albiorix and Tarvos, which are suspected to be of similar origin based on dynamical arguments, and Siarnaq.During its 2005 January opposition, the saturnian system could be viewed at an unusually low phase angle. We surveyed a subset of Saturn's irregular satellites to obtain their true opposition magnitudes, or nearly so, down to phase angle values of 0.01 deg. Combining our data taken at the Palomar 200-inch and Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory's 4-m Blanco telescope with those in the literature, we present the first phase curves for nearly half the irregular satellites originally reported by Gladman et al. [2001. Nature 412, 163-166], including Paaliaq (SXX), Siarnaq (SXXIX), Tarvos (SXXI), Ijiraq (SXXII), Albiorix (SXVI), and additionally Phoebe's narrowest angle brightness measured to date. We find centaur-like steepness in the phase curves or opposition surges in most cases with the notable exception of three, Albiorix and Tarvos, which are suspected to be of similar origin based on dynamical arguments, and Siarnaq.

satellites↗

NASA NTRS2008

How Past Loss of Control Accidents May Inform Safety Cases for Advanced Control Systems on Commercial Aircraft

This paper describes five loss of control accidents involving commercial aircraft, and derives from those accidents three principles to consider when developing a potential safety case for an advanced flight control system for commercial aircraft. One, among the foundational evidence needed to support a safety case is the availability to the control system of accurate and timely information about the status and health of relevant systems and components. Two, an essential argument to be sustained in the safety case is that pilots are provided with adequate information about the control system to enable them to understand the capabilities that it provides. Three, another essential argument is that the advanced control system will not perform less safely than a good pilot.

Holloway, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Deriving Safety Cases from Automatically Constructed Proofs

Formal proofs provide detailed justification for the validity of claims and are widely used in formal software development methods. However, they are often complex and difficult to understand, because the formalism in which they are constructed and encoded is usually machine-oriented, and they may also be based on assumptions that are not justified. This causes concerns about the trustworthiness of using formal proofs as arguments in safety-critical applications. Here, we present an approach to develop safety cases that correspond to formal proofs found by automated theorem provers and reveal the underlying argumentation structure and top-level assumptions. We concentrate on natural deduction style proofs, which are closer to human reasoning than resolution proofs, and show how to construct the safety cases by covering the natural deduction proof tree with corresponding safety case fragments. We also abstract away logical book-keeping steps, which reduces the size of the constructed safety cases. We show how the approach can be applied to the proofs found by the Muscadet prover.

Basir, Nurlida↗

NASA NTRS2009

Deriving Safety Cases from Machine-Generated Proofs

Proofs provide detailed justification for the validity of claims and are widely used in formal software development methods. However, they are often complex and difficult to understand, because they use machine-oriented formalisms; they may also be based on assumptions that are not justified. This causes concerns about the trustworthiness of using formal proofs as arguments in safety-critical applications. Here, we present an approach to develop safety cases that correspond to formal proofs found by automated theorem provers and reveal the underlying argumentation structure and top-level assumptions. We concentrate on natural deduction proofs and show how to construct the safety cases by covering the proof tree with corresponding safety case fragments.

Basir, Nurlida↗

NASA NTRS2010

Demonstrations that the Solar Wind is Not Accelerated by Waves or Turbulence

The present work uses observations and theoretical considerations to provide both qualitative and quantitative arguments that hydromagnetic waves, whether turbulent or not, cannot produce the acceleration of the fast solar wind and the related heating of the open solar corona. Waves do exist, and can play a role in the differential heating and acceleration of minor ions, but their amplitudes are not sufficient to power the wind, as demonstrated by extrapolation of magnetic spectra from Helios and Ulysses observations. Dissipation mechanisms invoked to circumvent this conclusion cannot be effective for a variety of reasons. In particular, turbulence does not play a strong role in the corona as shown both by observations of coronal striations and other features, and by theoretical considerations of line-tying to a nonturbulent photosphere, nonlocality of interactions, and the nature of the kinetic dissipation. We consider possible "ways out" of the arguments presented, and suggest that in the absence of wave or turbulent heating and acceleration, the chromosphere and transition region become the natural source, if yet unproven, of open coronal energization through the production of nonthermal particle distributions.

Roberts, D. Aaron↗

NASA NTRS2010

Comments on "The "Elevated Heat Pump" Hypothesis for the Aerosol-Monsoon Hydroclimate Link: "Grounded" in Observations?" by S. Nigam and M. Bollasina

In their recent paper Nigam and Bollasina [2010, hereafter NB] claimed to have found observational evidences that are at variance with the Elevated Heat Pump (EHP) hypothesis regarding the possible impacts of absorbing aerosols on the South Asian summer monsoon [Lau et al., 2006; Lau and Km 2006). We found NB's arguments and inferences against the EHP hypothesis flawed, stemming from a lack of understanding and an out-of-context interpretation of the hypothesis. It was argued that the simultaneous negative correlation of aerosol with rainfall, and correlations with other quantities in May as evidences against the EHP hypothesis. They cannot be more wrong in that argument. First, Lau and Kim [2006, hereafter, LKO6] never stated that the main rainfall response to EHP is in May. Second, the EHP is about responses of the entire Indian monsoon system that are non-local in space and time with respect to the aerosol forcing. Third, the correlation maps shown in NB, including the increased convection over the Bay of Bengal is not the response to EHP but rather represents the large-scale circulation that provides the build-up of the aerosols, before the onset of the monsoon rainfall over India. Because aerosol can only accumulate where there is little or no wash-out by rain, the negative correlation is a necessary condition for increased atmospheric loading of aerosols.

Lau, K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Comment on "'Elevated Heat Pump' Hypothesis for the Aerosol-Monsoon Hydroclimate Link: 'Grounded' in Observations?" by S. Nigam and M. Bollasina

In their recent paper, Nigam and Bollasina [2010] (hereinafter NB) claimed to have found observational evidences that are at variance with the elevated heat pump (EHP) hypothesis regarding the possible impacts of absorbing aerosols on the South Asian summer monsoon [Lau et al., 2006; Lau and Kim, 2006]. We found NB's arguments and inferences against the EHP hypothesis flawed, stemming from their own out of context interpretation of the hypothesis. NB argued that the simultaneous negative correlation of aerosol with rainfall, and correlations with other quantities in May, are evidence against the EHP hypothesis. Their argument cannot be justified. First, Lau and Kim [2006] (hereinafter LK06) never stated that the main rainfall response to EHP is in May. Second, the EHP is about responses of the entire Indian monsoon system that are nonlocal in space and time with respect to the aerosol forcing. As shown in Figure 4 of LK06, while the aerosol anomalies are strongest in April-May, the strongest rainfall response is in June-July, with the enhanced rainfall fed by an induced thermally driven circulation which brings additional moisture from the ocean to the Indian subcontinent. Third, the increased rainfall over the Bay of Bengal as shown in Figure 1a of NB and the increased low-level convergence in Figure 1f of NB do not necessarily reflect responses associated with EHP but rather the large ]scale circulation that provides the buildup of the aerosols before the onset of the monsoon rainfall over India. Because aerosol can only accumulate where there is little or no washout by rain, the negative correlation is a necessary condition for increased atmospheric loading of aerosols. For the same reason, the spatial distributions of rainfall and aerosol generally are offset with each other, i.e., high aerosol in regions of low rainfall. This is evident in Figure 1, which shows the climatological mean of the MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD), and TRMM rainfall over India in May. The maximum AOD is found over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and the desert regions of northwest India and Pakistan

Lau, K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Designing Fault-Injection Experiments for the Reliability of Embedded Systems

This paper considers the long-standing problem of conducting fault-injections experiments to establish the ultra-reliability of embedded systems. There have been extensive efforts in fault injection, and this paper offers a partial summary of the efforts, but these previous efforts have focused on realism and efficiency. Fault injections have been used to examine diagnostics and to test algorithms, but the literature does not contain any framework that says how to conduct fault-injection experiments to establish ultra-reliability. A solution to this problem integrates field-data, arguments-from-design, and fault-injection into a seamless whole. The solution in this paper is to derive a model reduction theorem for a class of semi-Markov models suitable for describing ultra-reliable embedded systems. The derivation shows that a tight upper bound on the probability of system failure can be obtained using only the means of system-recovery times, thus reducing the experimental effort to estimating a reasonable number of easily-observed parameters. The paper includes an example of a system subject to both permanent and transient faults. There is a discussion of integrating fault-injection with field-data and arguments-from-design.

White, Allan L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Geometric Analysis to Protect Manned Assets from Newly Launched Objects - COLA Gap Analysis

A safety risk was identified for the International Space Station (ISS) by The Aerospace Corporation following the launch of GPS IIR-20 (March 24, 2009), when the spent upper stage of the launch vehicle unexpectedly crossed inside the ISS notification box shortly after launch. This event highlighted a 56-hour vulnerability period following the end of the launch Collision Avoidance (COLA) process where the ISS would be unable to react to a conjunction with a newly launched object. Current launch COLA processes screen each launched object across the launch window to determine if an object's nominal trajectory is predicted to pass within 200 km of the ISS (or any other manned/mannable object), resulting in a launch time closure. These launch COLA screens are performed from launch through separation plus I 00 minutes. Once the objects are in orbit, they are cataloged and evaluated as part of routine on-orbit conjunction assessment processes. However, as the GPS IIR-20 scenario illustrated, there is a vulnerability period in the time line between the end of launch COLA coverage and the beginning of standard on-orbit COLA assessment activities. The gap between existing launch and on-orbit COLA processes is driven by the time it takes to track and catalog a launched object, identify a conjunction, and plan and execute a collision avoidance maneuver. For the ISS, the total time required to accomplish an of these steps is 56 hours. To protect human lives, NASA/JSC has requested that an US launches take additional steps to protect the ISS during this "COLA gap" period. The uncertainty in the state of a spent upper stage can be quite large after all bums are complete and all remaining propellants are expelled to safe the stage. Simply extending the launch COLA process an additional 56 hours is not a viable option as the 3-sigma position uncertainty will far exceed the 200 km miss-distance criterion. Additionally, performing a probability of collision (Pc) analysis over this period is also not practical due to the limiting effects of these large orbit state uncertainties. An estimated upper bound for Pc for a typical spent upper stage if nominally aligned for a direct broadside collision with the ISS is only on the order of 10-6. For a smaller manned object such as a Soyuz capsule, the risk level decreases to an order of 10'8 . In comparison, the Air Force Range policy (AFI 91-217) for launch COLAs would only eliminate launch opportunities when conjunctions with objects exceed a Pc of 10'5 This paper demonstrates a conservative geometry-based methodology that may be used to determine if launch opportunities pose a threat to the ISS during the COLA gap period. The NASA Launch Services Program at Kennedy Space Center has developed this COLA gap analysis method and employed it fQr three NASA missions to identify potential ISS conjunctions and corresponding launch window closures during the 56-hour at-risk period. In the analysis, for each launch opportunity, the nominal trajectory of the spent upper stage and the orbit state of the ISS are propagated over the 56 hour period. Each time the upper stage crosses the orbit plane of the ISS, the relative radial and argument of latitude separations are calculated. A window cutout is identified if these separation differences fall within a mission-specific violation box, which is determined from the evaluation of a Monte Carlo dispersions analysis that quantifies the potential variation in the upper stage radial and argument of latitude differences. This paper details the results of these analyses and their impacts to each mission.

Hametz, Mark E.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Safety Case Patterns: Theory and Applications

We develop the foundations for a theory of patterns of safety case argument structures, clarifying the concepts involved in pattern specification, including choices, labeling, and well-founded recursion. We specify six new patterns in addition to those existing in the literature. We give a generic way to specify the data required to instantiate patterns and a generic algorithm for their instantiation. This generalizes earlier work on generating argument fragments from requirements tables. We describe an implementation of these concepts in AdvoCATE, the Assurance Case Automation Toolset, showing how patterns are defined and can be instantiated. In particular, we describe how our extended notion of patterns can be specified, how they can be instantiated in an interactive manner, and, finally, how they can be automatically instantiated using our algorithm.

Safety Assurance↗

NASA NTRS2009

Deriving Safety Cases from Machine-Generated Proofs

Basir, Nurlida↗

NASA NTRS2014

Supernova Bounds on the Dark Photon Using Its Electromagnetic Decay

The hypothetical massive dark photon (gamma′) which has kinetic mixing with the SM photon can decay electromagnetically to e+ e− pairs if its mass m exceeds 2m(sub e), and otherwise into three SM photons. These decays yield cosmological and supernovae associated signatures. We briefly discuss these signatures, particularly in connection with the supernova SN1987A, and delineate the extra constraints that arise on the mass and mixing parameter of the dark photon. In particular, we find that for dark photon mass m(sub gamma') in the 5-20 MeV range arguments based on supernova 1987A observations lead to a bound on epsilon which is about 300 times stronger than the presently existing bounds based on energy loss arguments.

Supernova bounds on the dark photon using its elec↗

NASA NTRS2018

Potential Advantages of Conducting Short Duration Visits to the Martian Surface

Recent NASA concepts for human missions to Mars, including the Evolvable Mars Campaign and Design Reference Architecture 5.0, have focused on the conduct of missions with long duration stays on the Martian surface. The decision to focus on long duration missions (typically to a single site) is driven by a desire to increase the perceived sustainability of the human Mars campaign, predicated on the assumption that sustainability is best achieved by maximizing the level of activity on the surface, providing for continuous growth in operations, and promoting pioneering of Mars. However, executing a series of long duration missions to a single site is not the only option for human exploration of Mars that has been proposed. Other architectures have been evaluated that focus on missions with short duration surface stays, with each mission visiting a separate site on the surface. This type of architecture is less efficient in that elements are not typically reused from one mission to the next but requires a far less complex surface architecture. There are potentially valid arguments to be made that a short duration, multiple site approach could result in different types of advantages when compared to the long duration, single site approach to Mars exploration, particularly for initial human missions to Mars. These arguments revolve around four areas: Achieved Value, Risk Mitigation, Developmental Affordability, and Operational Affordability & Flexibility. The question of Achieved Value relates to the prioritization of goals for Martian exploration. As discussed, goals related to pioneering and expanding human presence are often referenced as justifications for the long duration approach. However, there are other competing goals, including science and exploration. While there is not a clear consensus among planetary scientists, many have argued that the value of being able to visit multiple sites could outweigh the value of continually visiting a single site. Risk Mitigation is a major concern for initial human missions to Mars. There are a number of hazards related to operating on the Martian surface that are not well characterized. It may be desirable to conduct a series of short duration missions to better understand the nature of these risks prior to committing to a long duration mission. Developmental Affordability relates to the ability of NASA and its partners to develop and deploy the proposed architecture. Any human missions to Mars will be among the most complex endeavors ever undertaken. The capabilities that must be developed to enable any human Mars missions are extremely challenging. The total design, development, test, and evaluation (DDT&E) budget required to develop just the essential capabilities alone will be substantial. If additional surface capabilities are required to support long duration surface stays, the development effort could be unaffordable. Operational Affordability & Flexibility relates to the continued costs to execute the Mars campaign. Long duration missions, even with some amount of in-situ resource utilization, require a significant level of resupply for every mission. This requires additional launches and in-space transportation assets, increasing the operational complexity and total operational cost. This paper will explore each of the four potential advantages of short duration missions in detail. The authors will present comparisons between proposed long duration and short duration architectures through an evaluation of relevant performance, cost, and risk metrics.

Stromgren, Chel↗

NASA NTRS2019

Spitzer Microlensing Parallax for OGLE-2016-BLG-1067: A Sub-Jupiter Orbiting an M Dwarf in the Disk

We report the discovery of a sub-Jupiter-mass planet orbiting beyond the snow line of an M dwarf most likely in the Galactic disk as part of the joint Spitzer and ground-based monitoring of planetary microlensing anomalies toward the Galactic bulge. Most of the microlensing parameters are strongly constrained by the light-curve modeling, and in particular there is a Spitzer-based measurement of the microlens parallax, π(E). However, there are no caustic crossings, so the angular Einstein radius has only an upper limit based on the light-curve modeling alone. Additionally, the analysis leads us to identify eight degenerate configurations: the fourfold microlensing parallax degeneracy being doubled by a degeneracy in the caustic structure present at the level of the ground-based solutions. To calculate the physical parameters, and at the same time to break the parallax degeneracy, we make use of a series of arguments: the χ(exp 2) hierarchy, the Rich argument (stating that the small-parallax solution is more likely), and a prior Galactic model. The preferred configuration, favored by a likelihood ratio of at least 4000, is for a host at D(L)={3.73}(-0.67+0.66)kpc with mass M(L)=0.30(-0.12+0.15) M(☉) , orbited by a Saturn-like planet with M(planet) =0.43(-0.17+0.21) M(Jup) at projected separation a(⊥) =1.70(-0.39+0.38) au, about 2.1 times beyond the system snow line. Therefore, it adds to the growing population of sub-Jupiter planets orbiting beyond the snow line of M dwarfs discovered by microlensing. Based on the rules of the real-time protocol for the selection of events to be followed up with Spitzer, this planet will not enter the sample for measuring the Galactic distribution of planets.

S. Calchi Novati↗

NASA NTRS2017

A CubeSat-Payload Radiation-Reliability Assurance Case using Goal Structuring Notation

CubeSats have become an attractive platform for universities, industry, and government space missions because they are cheaper and quicker to develop than full-scale satellites. One way CubeSats keep costs low is by using commercial off-the-shelf parts (COTS) instead of space-qualified parts. Space-qualified parts are often costlier, larger, and consume more power than their commercial counterparts precluding their use within the CubeSat form-factor. Given typical power budgets, monetary budgets, and timelines for CubeSat missions, conventional radiation hardness assurance, like the use of space-qualified parts and radiation testing campaigns of COTS parts, is not practical. Instead, a system-level approach to radiation effects mitigation is needed. In this paper an assurance case for a system-level approach to mitigate radiation effects of a CubeSat science experiment is expressed using Goal Structuring Notation (GSN), a graphical argument standard. The case specifically looks at three main mitigation strategies for the radiation environment: total ionizing dose (TID) screening of parts, detection and recovery from single-event latch-ups (SEL) and single-event functional interrupts (SEFI). The graphical assurance case presented makes a qualitative argument for the radiation reliability of the CubeSat experiment using part and system-level mitigation strategies.

COTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Can an Efficient Nuclear Energy Industry Still be Resilient? On the Nature of Efficiency and Resiliency in Complex Systems

At the time of writing, the nuclear industry is on the precipice of a long-hoped for, but as-yet-unrealized, “nuclear renaissance.” Nuclear power plants in the United States and around the globe are aging, emphasizing the criticality of this moment. The importance of carbon free power sources combined with advancements in nuclear technology and innovation have brought a new potential landscape. As existing reactors and utilities cope with increased economic pressure by seeking out efficiencies the push towards novel nuclear platforms like microreactors and fission batteries will only increase this quest for efficiency gains, potentially at the detriment of safety. This paper argues that the concepts of efficiency and resiliency are fundamentally linked and that the change in one necessarily affects the other. As nuclear power is known for being incredibly resilient, this dichotomy needs attention from the current wave of research towards nuclear power efficiencies. This paper argues for resiliency at any cost. We argue that this resilience-first approach is the right path for nuclear power to take in this net-zero future. The paper is laid out as follows. Section 1 introduces the economic context and resilient nature of nuclear power. Section 2 discusses efficiency, resiliency, and the struggle between the two in nuclear power. Section 3 exemplifies our argument through case studies in the aviation and manufacturing industries and extends the argument to the nuclear industry. Section 4 concludes with a discussion of the implications of this idea.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Safety Assurance Framework for Nuclear Digital Instrumentation and Control Software

Software in digital instrumentation and control (D&C) systems poses unique challenges for the safety assurance of nuclear power plants. Through a literature survey of 21 sources, we analyzed various claims, arguments, and evidence used in safety assurance cases across industries. These were organized into a Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) safety assurance case framework to organize and visualize the various arguments for DI&C safety. We developed a classification for the levels of the framework, which can be used in other safety assurance cases to improve clarity.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗