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At least 199 records · Page 11

VRN3P: Variational Recurrent Neural Network Based Net-Load Prediction under High Solar Penetration

This is the final technical report for the SETO-funded VRN3P project (PNNL# 76914). The goal of this project, led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), in collaboration with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Portland General Electric (PGE), was to develop and validate a deep variational recurrent neural network-based net-load prediction (VRN3P) framework for probabilistic time-series forecasting of day-ahead net-load under high solar penetration scenarios. The project team reports successful design of a novel probabilistic net-load forecasting architecture, comprising of a variational autoencoder and a recurrent neural network, which demonstrates 30% improvement in forecast performance, 60% improvement in training time, and consumes 44% less memory, when compared with conventional baseline models. The team tested the VRN3P model performance on GridLAB-D test-cases representing varying BTM solar penetration levels of 20%, 30%, and 50%, with integrated time-series net-load profiles provided by the utility partner (PGE). The VRN3P model demonstrate <2% hourly MAPE (averaged over the year) for day- ahead net-load forecast on the test scenario with 20% BTM solar. Transfer learning extension of the VRN3P model has demonstrated 8.33× speed-up in training, while still achieving acceptable forecast performance of 2.24% hourly MAPE on the 30% BTM solar penetration test-scenario. A preliminary version of the VRN3P GridAPPS-D™has been developed, along with a web-based interactive user-interface (named ‘Forte’) which has made available on GitHub for public use.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Advanced Facility Design and AI/ML Enabled Safeguards to Establish Secure, Economical Recycling of Fast Reactor Fuels (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The project, "Advanced Facility Design and AI/ML Enabled Safeguards to Establish Secure, Economical Recycling of Fast Reactor Fuels," represents a significant advancement in nuclear fuel recycling technology. It integrates cutting-edge multimodal sensor fusion, machine learning (ML), and digital twin (DT) technologies to address challenges in material safeguarding, process optimization, and regulatory compliance for pyroprocessing facilities. This research has significantly enhanced the understanding of pyrochemical fuel recycling processes by developing innovative tools and methodologies. The Multimodal Safeguards Monitoring Unit (MSMU) combines electroanalytical techniques, Raman spectroscopy, and differential thermal analysis (DTA) to enable high-fidelity, near-real-time material accountancy measurements. Machine learning techniques, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) autoencoders, are utilized to detect anomalies in material balances and sensor data, improving the reliability of safeguards monitoring. Additionally, digital twin technology has been established to provide real-time system-level monitoring and diagnostics, integrating physics-based models with sensor data to optimize process safety and efficiency.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Extending Component Lifetime And Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)

Inverter reliability remains one of the most persistent challenges limiting the performance, availability, and economic viability of utility‑scale photovoltaic (PV) plants. Industry data consistently show that inverters account for the highest share of corrective maintenance events and unplanned outages across PV fleets. These failures result in energy losses, increased O&M costs, and reduced confidence in long‑term solar asset performance. Motivated by these challenges, this project—Extending Component Lifetime and Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)—was undertaken to systematically investigate inverter degradation and failure mechanisms, develop predictive maintenance capabilities, and establish data‑driven pathways to improve service life and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for large‑scale PV systems. The primary goal of the project was to identify pre‑failure signatures in string inverters using both lab‑based accelerated lifetime testing and field‑based data and to develop predictive maintenance algorithms that can anticipate inverter faults before they occur. Through collaboration with inverter testing laboratory, solar PV plant owner, and failure‑analysis experts, the project advanced the technical understanding of inverter reliability. By instrumenting inverters with thermistors, humidity sensors, power‑quality meters, and acoustic sensors, the research established how multiple sensing modalities can reliably detect deviations from normal behavior hours to days before failure. These findings substantially enhance scientific understanding of inverter failure kinetics and provide the PV industry with the most comprehensive cross‑OEM characterization of early‑stage failure indicators reported to date. Technically, the project demonstrated the effectiveness of predictive maintenance by developing and validating the PreDICT (Predictive Diagnostics of PV Inverters Using Condition Monitoring and Trend Analysis) framework—a multi‑layer diagnostic architecture combining peer‑to‑peer analytics, historical trend modeling, and advanced machine‑learning techniques such as the Sequential Conditional Variational Autoencoder (SCVAE). This predictive model achieved more than 90% accuracy in detecting pre‑failure conditions and provided up to four days of lead time before inverter failure in field scenarios. Economically, the project’s LCOE analysis showed that predictive maintenance can reduce lifetime energy losses and minimize corrective maintenance interventions. Modeling indicated that, depending on inverter failure rates and replacement timelines, predictive maintenance can significantly reduce LCOE impacts associated with inverter downtime: from as high as 19.4% under conventional maintenance strategies to 0.1%–10.17% when predictive analytics are adopted. These results confirm that predictive maintenance is both technically feasible and economically advantageous for utilities and plant operators. The project’s findings also have broad public benefit. By improving inverter reliability and reducing downtime, predictive maintenance directly increases electricity generation from existing PV assets. Enhanced reliability lowers operational costs for utilities, which can translate over time into lower energy costs for consumers. Furthermore, the project’s technical publications, conference presentations, and industry workshops ensure that knowledge gained is shared broadly across the solar industry, supporting workforce development and enabling utilities of all sizes to adopt modern asset‑health monitoring practices. The retrofitting case study and service‑life prediction framework further support informed decision‑making for aging PV fleets, helping operators extend system life and reduce electronic waste. In summary, the ECLAIIR project significantly advanced the state of knowledge on inverter degradation, demonstrated the technical and economic value of predictive maintenance, and delivered actionable tools and insights that support more reliable, cost‑effective, and sustainable PV plant operation. The outcomes of this project will continue to inform utility practices, guide inverter design improvements, and strengthen the long‑term performance of solar assets nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Exploring AI/ML-based Real-time Anomaly Detection in DUNE for Supernova Burst Neutrinos

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is currently under construction with far detectors consisting of 4 liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) modules at SURF (South Dakota Underground Research Facility) and a near detector complex with neutrino beam production at Fermilab to unambiguously determine neutrino mass ordering, to discover and precisely measure Charge-Parity (CP) violation phase in leptonic sector, to search for Beyond Stand Model (BSM) physics, and to study solar and supernova burst neutrinos. Anomalies in this project are classified in three categories: new physics signals, supernova burst neutrinos, and detector malfunction. We report here on promising early studies toward an Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning-based real-time anomaly detection system, using a prototype autoencoder model currently under development. Additionally, the current status of an improved model and its performance will be presented. The model will be evaluated not only for its sensitivity to supernova neutrinos, but also to BSM physics signals and detector malfunctions. We will also consider how such a real-time algorithm might be used in DUNE.

de Jonge, Anselm [Kirchhoff Inst. Phys.] (ORCID:00

pvcracks: trained VAE model

The resulting model weights for the variational autoencoder for solar cell crack parametrization to be loaded into the python code for other to use

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Synthetic Scientific Image Generation with VAE, GAN, and Diffusion Model Architectures

Generative AI (genAI) has emerged as a powerful tool for synthesizing diverse and complex image data, offering new possibilities for scientific imaging applications. This review presents a comprehensive comparative analysis of leading generative architectures, ranging from Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) to Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) on through to Diffusion Models, in the context of scientific image synthesis. We examine each model's foundational principles, recent architectural advancements, and practical trade-offs. Our evaluation, conducted on domain-specific datasets including microCT scans of rocks and composite fibers, as well as high-resolution images of plant roots, integrates both quantitative metrics (SSIM, LPIPS, FID, CLIPScore) and expert-driven qualitative assessments. Results show that GANs, particularly StyleGAN, produce images with high perceptual quality and structural coherence. Diffusion-based models for inpainting and image variation, such as DALL-E 2, delivered high realism and semantic alignment but generally struggled in balancing visual fidelity with scientific accuracy. Importantly, our findings reveal limitations of standard quantitative metrics in capturing scientific relevance, underscoring the need for domain-expert validation. We conclude by discussing key challenges such as model interpretability, computational cost, and verification protocols, and discuss future directions where generative AI can drive innovation in data augmentation, simulation, and hypothesis generation in scientific research.

Generative Adversarial Networks

Uncovering Structure–Conductivity Relationships in Anion Exchange Membranes (AEMs) Using Interpretable Machine Learning

Anion exchange membranes (AEMs) play a vital role in the performance of water electrolyzers and fuel cells, yet their discovery and optimization remain challenging due to the complexity of structure–property relationships. In this study, we introduce a machine learning framework that leverages conditional graph neural networks (cGNNs) and descriptor-based models and a hybrid graph neural network (HGARE) to predict and interpret ionic conductivity. The descriptor-based pipeline employs principal component analysis (PCA), ablation, and SHAP analysis to identify factors governing anion conductivity, revealing electronic, topological, and compositional descriptors as key contributors. Beyond prediction, dimensionality reduction and clustering are performed by employing t-SNE and KMeans as well as SOM, which reveal distinct membranes clusters, some of which were enriched with high anion conductivity. Among graph-based approaches, the graph convolutional (GCN) achieved strong predictive performance, while the Hybrid Graph Autoencoder-Regressor Ensemble (HGARE) achieved the highest accuracy. Additionally, atom-level saliency maps from GCN provide spatial explanations for conductive behavior, revealing the importance of polarizable and flexible regions. This work contributes to the accelerated and data-driven design of high-performance AEMs.

Naghshnejad, Pegah [Department of Chemical Enginee

Advancing the Limits of InSAR to Detect Crustal Displacement from Low-Magnitude Earthquakes through Deep Learning

Detecting surface deformation associated with low-magnitude (M w ≤ 5) seismicity using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) is challenging due to the subtlety of the signal and the often challenging imaging environments. However, low-magnitude earthquakes are potential precursors to larger seismic events, and thus characterizing the crustal displacement associated with them is crucial for regional seismic hazard assessment. We combine InSAR time-series techniques with a Deep Learning (DL) autoencoder denoiser to detect the magnitude and extent of crustal deformation from the M w = 3.4 Gallina, New Mexico earthquake that occurred on 30 July 2020. Although InSAR alone cannot detect event-related deformation from such a low-magnitude seismic event, application of the DL method reveals maximum displacements as small as (±2.5 mm) in the vicinity of both the fault and earthquake epicenter without prior knowledge of the fault system. This finding improves small-scale displacement discernment with InSAR by an order of magnitude relative to previous studies. We additionally estimate best-fitting fault parameters associated with the observed deformation. The application of the DL technique unlocks the potential for low-magnitude earthquake studies, providing new insights into local fault geometries and potential risks from higher-magnitude earthquakes. This technique also permits low-magnitude event monitoring in areas where seismic networks are sparse, allowing for the possibility of global fault deformation monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Real-time Anomaly Detection for Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers

We present a real-time anomaly detection framework for liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs), targeting applications in particle physics experiments such as the Short Baseline Near Detector (SBND) or the future Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). These experiments employ detectors that generate and stream high-resolution but sparse images of neutrino and other particle interactions. Our approach utilizes anomaly detection with autoencoders, compressed through knowledge distillation (KD), to enable the detection of anomalous signals in the data through efficient inference on resource-constrained hardware. The framework is targeted for deployment on computing platforms equipped with field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), GPUs, or CPUs, allowing low-latency selection of relevant activity directly from the raw detector data stream. We demonstrate that our approach is suitable for the detection and localization of anomalously "high-multiplicity" activity, and outline promising applications for LArTPC online data filtering and triggering.

FOS: Physical sciences

A Path Towards Quantum Advantage in Training Deep Generative Models with Quantum Annealing

A class of quantum-classical hybrid machine-learning algorithms can be obtained by integrating classical deep generative models with quantum probability distributions as 'priors' over their latent variables. We introduce a hybrid implementation of variational autoencoders (QVAE) and also present a technique to hybridize flow-based invertible generative models. We demonstrate the use of D-Wave quantum annealers as physical simulators of quantum Boltzmann machines (QBM) to perform quantum-assisted training of QVAE. Latent-space QBM develop slowly mixing modes, opening a path to obtain quantum advantage in generative modeling with available quantum devices.

Vinci, Walter

Use of Design of Experiments and Rule-Based Inference in Determining Neural Network Architectures for Loss of Control Detection

In this work, we describe methods for selecting the neural network architectures and input spaces to implement belief state inference on generic commercial transport aircraft. First, we highlight a case study on the planning, execution, and analysis of a set of experiments to determine the configurations of a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE). We present a structured method that can be used in a number of aerospace applications, to optimize the structure and training parameters of the CVAE for belief state inference, using Design of Experiments (DOE) statistical methodologies. The motivation for this specific DOE was to identify the appropriate hyperparameters for measuring the CVAE reconstruction probability and latent space, such that the measurements can be used to infer qualitative state changes for the aircraft. We demonstrate that this process yields information about a trained neural network’s utility for this specific application, along with a quantifiable range of certainty. We execute 84 experiments using loss-of-control flight maneuver data from a NASA T-2 aircraft, demonstrating that this empirical process allows us to construct cheap and simple models with specific attributes amenable to belief state inference in aerospace applications. While theoretically, we could create a single CVAE with an input space the size of all measurable flight variables and environmental dynamics, it becomes intractable to use such a neural network in an in-situ intelligent multi-agent system. Using the recommendations from our case study, we introduce a technical approach for feasibly describing the belief space by (1) identifying significant statistical relationships among flight variables using rule induction, (2) using a set of rules that cover all features to define the input space of multiple CVAEs, and (3) forming a belief space based on the joint probability density of their collective latent spaces. This results in a series of relatively small matrix multiplications that can be performed in real time, as opposed to large matrix computations in a single CVAE. We demonstrate the application of this approach on the T-2 flight loss-of control experiments, using the architecture and hyperparameter recommendations from the case study. We compare the utilities of an individual CVAE trained on all flight variables and multiple CVAEs defined on subsets of flight variables for detecting qualitative changes in flight. We demonstrate that the use of multiple CVAEs with smaller input spaces permits the CVAE to capture more granular relationships in the latent space, permitting better state space characterization and loss-of-control detection.

Design of experiments

Use of Design of Experiments in Determining Neural Network Architectures for Loss of Control Detection

Abstract—We describe empirical methods for selecting a neural network architecture to implement belief state inference on generic commercial transport aircraft. We highlight a case study on the planning, execution, and analysis of a set of experiments to determine the configurations of a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE). Our main contribution is the application of a structured method that can be used for machine learning in many aerospace applications. This method optimizes the structure and training parameters of a neural network for belief state inference, using Design of Experiments (DOE) statistical methodologies. The motivation for this specific DOE analysis was to identify the appropriate hyperparameters for measuring the CVAE reconstruction probability and latent space, such that the measurements can be used to infer qualitative state changes for the aircraft. We demonstrate that this process yields information about a trained neural network’s utility for this specific application, along with a quantifiable range of certainty. We execute 84 experiments using loss-of-control flight maneuver data from the NASA T-2 aircraft, demonstrating that this empirical process allows us to construct cheap and simple models with specific attributes amenable to belief state inference in aerospace applications.

neural networks

Predicting the Seawater Chemistry of an Ocean World Using Machine Learning on Isotopic Measurements of Volatile CO2

Introduction: Given the long time intervals required for data transmission to and from ocean worlds targets, low bandwidth for data transmission, time required for data processing and analysis, and potentially extreme radiation environments (e.g., Europa), it is clear that ocean worlds missions will need more autonomous flight instruments and software in order to achieve established science goals. Protracted time intervals for data analysis (e.g., Europa Lander) strongly motivates the development of rapid, consistent and streamlined methods for interpreting data from flight mass spectrometers to e.g., determine how mass spectra from a plume or surface liquid/ice relates to the surface/subsurface. Since mass spectrometry also has the potential to correctly identify biosignatures[1], it is imperative that such methods for interpreting data are consistent and accurate. We used 848 isotope ratio mass spectra from laboratory analyses of CO2 that interacted with ocean worlds-relevant seawaters as a ‘training’ dataset for ‘unsupervised’ machine learning. In unsupervised learning, characteristics of the data are not labeled or linked, and any similarities found only result from the neural network. CO2 isotopologues analyzed for this dataset mimic the remote measurements of CO2 by a flight mass spectrometer, and are detailed in Theiling [2]. From this dataset, we used measured features of the spectra, such as retention time, intensity, and (isotopologue) mass ratios as inputs for our autoencoder neural network. Our neural network was trained to find similarities in these and other spectral features for seawaters of a particular composition and amount of initial CO2. Successful training then created an output of these similarities for various seawaters, which included MgSO4, Na2SO4, NaCl, MgCl2, KCl, and NaHCO3, and combinations of these salts. We then applied dimensionality reduction techniques such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA), T-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (TSNE), and Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) to demonstrate latent data features as a two-dimensional projection in a unitless, high-dimensional space. In this projection, a data point represents the combined effect of spectral features such as intensity, retention time, and isotope ratio. Our initial UMAP demonstrates data clustering (organization of the data by the neural network) based on the amount of CO2 that had initially interacted with each seawater. Further training using more ‘supervised’ learning techniques demonstrate strong clustering of preliminary data based on initial CO2 concentration, seawater chemical composition, and ionic strength (salinity). Our preliminary work therefore suggests that machine learning has the potential to identify compositional variants of an ocean world seawater based on mass spectra from volatile CO2 measurements. Acknowledgments: This work was funded through a Strategic Task Group at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The training dataset was collected through funding from the Oklahoma Space Grant Consortium. References: [1] Pappalardo, R. et al. (2013) Astrobiology, 13, 740–773. [2] Theiling (2020) Icarus, 114216.

Europa

Compression of Solar Spectroscopic Observations: a Case Study of MgII k Spectral Line Profiles Observed by NASA’s IRIS Satellite

In this study we extract the deep features and investigate the compression of the MgII k spectral line profiles observed in quiet Sun regions by NASA’s IRIS satellite. The data set of line profiles used for the analysis was obtained on April 20th, 2020, at the center of the solar disc, and contains almost 300,000 individual MgII k line profiles after data cleaning. The data are separated into train and test subsets. The train subset was used to train the autoencoder of the varying embedding layer size. The early stopping criterion was implemented on the test subset to prevent the model from overfitting. Our results indicate that it is possible to compress the spectral line profiles more than 27 times (which corresponds to the reduction of the data dimensionality from 110 to 4) while having a 4DN average reconstruction error, which is comparable to the variations in the line continuum. The mean squared error and the reconstruction error of even statistical moments sharply decrease when the dimensionality of the embedding layer increases from 1 to 4 and almost stop decreasing for higher numbers. The observed occasional improvements in training for values higher than 4 indicate that a better compact embedding may potentially be obtained if other training strategies and longer training times are used. The features learned for the critical four-dimensional case can be interpreted. In particular, three of these four features mainly control the line width, line asymmetry, and line dip formation respectively. The presented results are the first attempt to obtain a compact embedding for spectroscopic line profiles and confirm the value of this approach, in particular for feature extraction, data compression, and denoising.

SMD

Spectral Synthesis for Geostationary Satellite-to-Satellite Translation

Earth-observing satellites carrying multispectral sensors are widely used to monitor the physical and biological states of the atmosphere, land, and oceans. These satellites have different vantage points above the Earth and different spectral imaging bands resulting in inconsistent imagery from one to another. This presents challenges in building downstream applications. What if we could generate synthetic bands for existing satellites from the union of all domains? We tackle the problem of generating synthetic spectral imagery for multispectral sensors as an unsupervised image-to-image translation problem modeled with a variational autoencoder (VAE) and generative adversarial network (GAN) architecture. Our approach introduces a novel shared spectral reconstruction loss to constrain the high-dimensional feature space of multispectral images. Simulated experiments performed by dropping one or more spectral bands show that cross-domain reconstruction outperforms measurements obtained from a second vantage point. Our proposed approach enables the synchronization of multispectral data and provides a basis for more homogeneous remote sensing datasets.

Geostationary satellites

Aircraft Classification Using Radar from Small Unmanned Aerial Systems for Scalable Traffic Management Emergency Response Operations

This work investigates two machine learning techniques: Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Autoencoders (AE)with SVM layer for classification of radar trajectories as General Aviation (GA), fixed-wing small Unmanned Aerial System (sUAS), or not-an-aircraft using radar data recorded from sUAS. Onboard identification of intruder aircraft type is useful for planning avoidance maneuvers and is necessary to provide autonomous systems to meet or exceed the avoidance capability of a human pilot. Aircraft classification can identify intruder aircraft that are not part of the team and may be violating a Temporary Flight Restriction. Aircraft classification is needed in monitoring an airspace where multiple aircraft are teaming on a shared task. Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (STEReO) is a NASA project aimed at improving disaster response by enabling large scale aircraft operations through the teaming of manned aircraft with sUAS to maximize emergency response resources. To this end, this work uses trajectories and radar derived features to classify aircraft from a multirotor sUAS. The AE + SVM generated the strongest classification overall accuracy of 93.5% using the first 4 seconds of radar track data for tracks that activated the avoidance system. Subsampling the available track data increased the available training data with the maximum aircraft recall of 0.94 achieved using the SVM with 1 second track data.

Chester V. Dolph

SWIPE: Spectral Water Inversion Processor and Emulator

Degradation of Earth’s inland water resources due to anthropogenic perturbations and climate anomalies at both local and global scales continues to place human health at substantial risk. There is now a growing necessity to develop pragmatic approaches that allow timely and effective extrapolation of local processes, to spatially resolved global products, and to promote operational and sustainable resource policy management. This presentation will be discussing the progress made developing SWIPE: Spectral Water Inversion Processor and Emulator. SWIPE is a platform for advanced modeling of coastal and inland aquatic habitats. The goal is create a comprehensive and cohesive system to leverage recent advancements in computation and machine learning to develop a synthetic training ground for sensitivity studies and algorithm development. The four principal facets of SWIPE include: 1. Advanced two-layer coated sphere bio-optical modeling and GPU radiative transfer modeling, 2. Big Data involving massive synthetic spectral libraries of optical properties of various global aquatic particles, surface reflectance, and top-of-atmosphere reflectance, all at hyperspectral resolution leveraging high-end computing systems at NASA Ames Research Center, 3. Deep Learning for algorithm development for water quality inversion of concentrations of common biogeophysical variables as well as optics, full uncertainty characterization by water type, and forward emulation, and lastly, 4. Image Processing for application of developed retrieval algorithms for both hyperspectral and multispectral sensors with experimental corrections for global adjacency, noise, sunglint, and benthic reflectance. This presentation will demonstrate the Equivalent Algal Populations (EAP) two-layer coated sphere scattering model which has been used develop spectral libraries of hyperspectral inherent optical properties of roughly 80 species of phytoplankton, covering 15 different classes and nine taxonomic functional types. The EAP model was also used to derive spectral properties of 10 different non-algal particle functional types. Examples of how the SMART-G (Speed-up Monte-carlo Advanced Radiative Transfer using GPU) radiative transfer code is used to model optically complex aquatic signals will be presented and discussed in the context of creating a massive synthetic database which can leverage the full power of next generation machine learning techniques and high end computing for water quality inversion. We will discuss our active investigation in things like appropriate model architectures, dimensionality reduction techniques such as PCA and autoencoders, uncertainty quantification and abstaining, and which variables actually benefit most from hyperspectral information versus multispectral resolution. We are also curious about questions relating to cost/benefit analysis in terms of computation resources, neural network complexity, and data volumes. Answers to these questions will hopefully elaborate on cost efficiency for potential future sensor design considerations.

SWIPE