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At least 199 records · Page 11

Vertical Analysis of Martian Drainage Basins

We have performed a vertical analysis of drainage basins on Mars that were computationally extracted from DEMs based on the MOLA data. Longitudinal profiles of main streams are calculated and the slope-area relation is established for 20 basins coming from assorted martian locations. An identical analysis is done for 19 terrestrial river basins. Our results show that, in comparison to terrestrial basins, martian basins have more linear longitudinal profiles, more frequent existence of knickpoints, predominance of asymmetric location of the main stream in the basin, and smaller values of concavity exponent. This suggests a limited role for surface runoff on the global scale. However, two basins extracted from the slopes of martian volcanoes show a strong similarity to terrestrial basins, indicating a possible local role for the process of surface runoff.

Stepinski, T. F.↗

Buried and Visible Impact Basin Distribution on Mars: Comparison with Magnetization, Gravity and Crustal Thickness Models

The large population of buried impact basins found in MOLA elevation data on Mars provides compelling evidence for a pre-Noachian crust below the oldest visible Early Noachian surface units, and lowland crust below the younger plains that is Early Noachian in age, older than much of the visible highlands, but not as old as the buried pre-Noachian highlands. The large (D greater than 200 km) buried basins are suggested by Quasi-Circular Depressions (QCDs) that are not apparent in image data, and include features up to 3000 lun diameter in both the lowlands (Utopia) and highlands (a newly found "Ares Basin"). There are about a dozen QCDs larger than 1000 km diameter. We have placed these large features in a relative age sequence based on superimposed smaller QCD. Only the youngest and most obvious of these (Hellas, Argyre, Isidis) lack magnetic anomalies within their main rings. These all have an N(200) cumulative crater density of less than 2.5. Somewhat older lowland-making basins (Utopia, Chryse, Acidalia) with an N(200) age of approximately 3.0, have weak magnetic anomalies, and the oldest, most subdued basins (including Ares) with N(200) greater than 3.5 have many strong magnetic anomalies within their main ring. These older basins likely formed before the main magnetic field died. We have compared our inventory of large QCDs with the distribution of gravity anomalies and with a crustal thickness model which shows many roughly circular areas of thinner crust completely or partly surrounded by narrow regions of thicker crust. These have the structure expected for impact basins, and many of them do correspond to the visible or buried QCDs we previously identified. But there are cases where the crustal thickness feature is offset from the QCD found in topography alone, and there are also several, sometimes large examples of such features which do not coincide with QCDs previously identified. For example, we find several likely buried basins revealed in the crustal thickness data in the Arcadia and Amazonis regions which we did not previously identify, including several features in the 600-1200 km diameter range.

Frey, Herbert↗

Sampling South Pole-Aitken Basin: The Moonrise Approach

The South Pole-Aitken basin (SPA) is the largest of the giant impact basins in the inner Solar System, and its location on Earth s Moon makes it the most accessible. Exploration of SPA through direct collection and analysis of representative materials addresses issues as fundamental as the characteristics of the chemical reservoir from which the Moon originated, early differentiation and production of crust and development of global asymmetry, relationships between magmatic activity and internal thermal evolution, and effects of giant impact events on the terrestrial planets. Owing to its great size and superposition relationships with other lunar impact basins, SPA is the oldest and as such anchors the lunar chronology. Moreover, numerous large impact craters and basins are contained within it such that materials (rocks) of the SPA basin contain a record of the early impact chronology, one less likely to have been affected by the large, late nearside basins (e.g., Imbrium). Understanding the early basin chronology is key to deciphering the sequence and effects of early giant impact bombardment of the inner Solar System. That record exists on the Moon, and materials of the SPA basin will allow us to read that record. Knowledge of the early bombardment history will test - and may reshape - a key paradigm relating to early Solar System evolution. Did the planets form with the alignment of today, or was there a major reorientation of the giant planets that led to destabilization of asteroid orbits, and a cataclysmic bombardment of the inner Solar System hundreds of millions of years after accretion of the planets? Implications include understanding environments for early life-supporting habitats on Earth and Mars, and relationships to new observations of extra-solar planetary systems.

Jolliff, B. L.↗

Lunar Impact Basins: Stratigraphy, Sequence and Ages from Superposed Impact Crater Populations Measured from Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) Data

Impact basin formation is a fundamental process in the evolution of the Moon and records the history of impactors in the early solar system. In order to assess the stratigraphy, sequence, and ages of impact basins and the impactor population as a function of time, we have used topography from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) to measure the superposed impact crater size-frequency distributions for 30 lunar basins (D ≥ 300 km). These data generally support the widely used Wilhelms sequence of lunar basins, although we find significantly higher densities of superposed craters on many lunar basins than derived by Wilhelms (50% higher densities). Our data also provide new insight into the timing of the transition between distinct crater populations characteristic of ancient and young lunar terrains. The transition from a lunar impact flux dominated by Population 1 to Population 2 occurred before the mid-Nectarian. This is before the end of the period of rapid cratering, and potentially before the end of the hypothesized Late Heavy Bombardment. LOLA-derived crater densities also suggest that many Pre-Nectarian basins, such as South Pole-Aitken, have been cratered to saturation equilibrium. Finally, both crater counts and stratigraphic observations based on LOLA data are applicable to specific basin stratigraphic problems of interest; for example, using these data, we suggest that Serenitatis is older than Nectaris, and Humboldtianum is younger than Crisium. Sample return missions to specific basins can anchor these measurements to a Pre-Imbrian absolute chronology.

Fassett, C. I.↗

Rewriting the Landform History of One of Africa's Three Largest Basins

The Kalahari Basin in southern Africa - one of the largest basins in Africa, along with the Congo and Chad basins - has attracted attention since David Livingstone traveled through the area in the 1840s. It is a semiarid desert with a large freshwater swampland known as the Okavango Swamp (150 km radius). This prominent megafan (a fan with radii >100 km), with its fingers of dark green forests projecting into the dun colors of the dunes of the Kalahari semi-desert, has been well photographed by astronauts over the years. The study area in the northern Kalahari basin is centered on the Okavango megafan of northwest Botswana, whose swampland has become well known as an African wildlife preserve of importance to biology and tourism alike. The Okavango River is unusual because it has deposited not one but two megafans along its course: the Okavango megafan and the Cubango megafan. The Okavango megafan is one of only three well-known megafans in Africa. Megafans on Earth were once thought to be rare, but recent research has documented 68 in Africa alone. Eleven megafans, plus three more candidates, have been documented in the area immediately surrounding the Okavango feature. These 11 megafans occupy the flattest and smoothest terrains adjacent to the neighboring upland and stand out as the darkest areas in the roughness map of the area. Megafan terrains occupy at least 200,000 sq km of the study area. The roughness map shown is based on an algorithm used first on Mars to quantify topographic roughness. Research of Earth's flattest terrains is just beginning with the aid of such maps, and it appears that these terrains are analogous to the flattest regions of Mars. Implications: 1. The variability in depositional style in each subbasin may apply Africa-wide: rift megafan length is dominated by rift width, whereas Owambo subbasin megafans are probably controlled by upland basin size; Zambezi subbasin megafans appear more like foreland basin types, with the position of the trunk river controlling size. 2. These perspectives were successfully applied to identify the largest megafan in the group (Cubango), a fan that was sufficiently overprinted by dunes and dry lakelets not to be detectable remotely. Such undertsanding can probably be applied on Mars, where Earth experience suggests megafans ought to exist. 3. Sweep angles of rivers on megafans drastically change the hydrology in some subbasins: when the Cubango and Kunene rivers were oriented to the Etosha Pan, it was probably a permanent water body. Now that the rivers are oriented away from the basin, 93 percent of the discharge area from the pan's northerly (main) source area is gone. 4. Biotic contact between major river systems was probably controlled by megafans situated on divides: various fish species that originated in the Congo basin are now found in the Upper Zambezi R., and vice versa, apparently because of river switching behavior on the Cassai megafan that has mediated migrations both to the south and the north.

Wilkinson, Justin↗

Megafans of the Northern Kalahari Basin

We identify eleven megafans (partial cones of fluvial sediment, >80 km radius) in the northern Kalahari Basin, using several criteria based on VIS and IR remotely sensed data and SRTM-based surface morphology reconstructions. Two other features meet fewer criteria of the form which we class as possible megafans. The northern Kalahari megafans are located in a 1700 km arc around the southern and eastern flanks of the Angola's Bié Plateau, from northern Namibia through northwest Botswana to western Zambia. Three lie in the Owambo subbasin centered on the Etosha Pan, three in the relatively small Okavango rift depression, and five in the Upper Zambezi basin. The population includes the well-known Okavango megafan (150 km), Namibia's Cubango megafan, the largest megafan in the region (350 km long), and the largest nested group (the five major contiguous megafans on the west slopes of the upper Zambezi Valley). We use new, SRTM-based topographic roughness data to discriminate various depositional surfaces within the flat N. Kalahari landscapes. We introduce the concepts of divide megafans, derived megafans, and fan-margin rivers. Conclusions. (i) Eleven megafan cones total an area of ~190,000 sq km. (ii) Different controls on megafan size operate in the three component basins: in the Okavango rift structural controls become the prime constraint on megafan length by controlling basin dimensions. Megafans in the other les constricted basins appear to conform to classic relationships fan area, slope, and feeder-basin area. (iii) Active fans occupy the Okavango rift depression with one in the Owambo basin. The rest of the population are relict but recently active fans (surfaces are relict with respect to activity by the feeder river). (iv) Avulsive behavior of the formative river-axiomatic for the evolution of megafans-has resulted in repeated rearrangements of regional drainage, with likely effects in the study area well back into the Neogene. Divide megafans comprise the majority of the identified features, some of which have delivered water and sediment alternately to neighboring basins in the course of normal avulsion activity, likely resulting in significant changes in the hydrologies of two of the study-area subbasins. (v) Paleoclimatic inferences extracted from fluvial and lacustrine sediments therefore need to take account of avulsion-driven drainage configurations, especially where these are autogenically controlled.

Wilkinson, M. J.↗

Climate Change Impacts to Hydropower Generation in Pacific Northwest River Basins (Final Report)

This is the final technical report describing the research findings for the project, “Climate change impacts to hydropower generation in Pacific Northwest river basins”. The overall objective of the research was to develop a new approach to assess which types of climate changes would adversely affect hydropower production. This research had three major components. First, we conducted a geospatial analysis of the region to identify potential focus basins. We compiled geospatial data on hydropower dam locations, contributing areas to hydropower dams, and climate characteristics in contributing areas. For the potential focus basins identified, we classified these basins by hydrologic regime as snow-dominated, rain-dominated, or mixed. Rain-dominated basins were primarily found in Oregon, with some in western Washington. Most of the basins draining west out of the Cascades in Washington were mixed, whereas most of the potential focus basins in Idaho were snowmelt-dominated. Next, we developed a stochastic conceptual modeling approach in which we stochastically generate a wide range of climate scenarios and use these scenarios to generate time series of reservoir inflows. We developed and applied this modeling approach to the North Fork of the Clearwater River in Idaho. Results showed that increases in temperature in the basin led to decreases in streamflow, even in cases where precipitation increased. Finally, we used the reservoir inflow scenarios from the stochastic conceptual model to force a reservoir operations model for Dworshak reservoir. The wide range of climate scenarios generated by the hydrologic model allowed us to test the sensitivity of reservoir operations objectives to shifts in both temperature and precipitation. Results showed that scenarios with lower inflow had less hydropower generation, but changes in hydropower generation were not always proportional to changes in inflow. Current reservoir operations were better suited to maximize hydropower generation under climate change scenarios with no shift in inflow timing but did not optimize power generation under warming scenarios with earlier snowmelt runoff.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

A new interpretation of deformation rates in the Snake River Plain and adjacent basin and range regions based on GPS measurements

We evaluate horizontal Global Positioning System (GPS) velocities together with geologic, volcanic, and seismic data to interpret extension, shear, and contraction within the Snake River Plain and the Northern Basin and Range Province, U.S.A. We estimate horizontal surface velocities using GPS data collected at 385 sites from 1994 to 2009 and present an updated velocity field within the Stable North American Reference Frame (SNARF). Our results show an ENE-oriented extensional strain rate of 5.9 {+-} 0.7 x 10{sup -9} yr{sup -1} in the Centennial Tectonic belt and an E-oriented extensional strain rate of 6.2 {+-} 0.3 x 10{sup -9} yr{sup -1} in the Intermountain Seismic belt combined with the northern Great Basin. These extensional strain rates contrast with the regional north-south contraction of -2.6 {+-} 1.1 x 10{sup -9} yr{sup -1} calculated in the Snake River Plain and Owyhee-Oregon Plateau over a 125 x 650 km region. Tests that include dike-opening reveal that rapid extension by dike intrusion in volcanic rift zones does not occur in the Snake River Plain at present. This slow internal deformation in the Snake River Plain is in contrast to the rapidly-extending adjacent Basin and Range provinces and implies shear along boundaries of the Snake River Plain. We estimate right-lateral shear with slip rates of 0.5-1.5 mm/yr along the northwestern boundary adjacent to the Centennial Tectonic belt and left-lateral oblique extension with slip rates of <0.5 to 1.7 mm/yr along the southeastern boundary adjacent to the Intermountain Seismic belt. The fastest lateral shearing occurs near the Yellowstone Plateau where strike-slip focal mechanisms and faults with observed strike-slip components of motion are documented. The regional GPS velocity gradients are best fit by nearby poles of rotation for the Centennial Tectonic belt, Idaho batholith, Snake River Plain, Owyhee-Oregon Plateau, and central Oregon, indicating that clockwise rotation is driven by extension to the south in the Great Basin and not localized extension in the Basin and Range or Yellowstone hotspot volcanism. We propose that the GPS velocity field reflects the regional deformation pattern since at least 15-12 Ma, with clockwise rotation over the Northern Basin and Range Province consistent with Basin and Range extension initiating 16 Ma. The region modified by hotspot volcanism has a low-strain rate. If we assume the low rate of deformation is reflected in the length of time between eruptions on the order of 10{sup 4} to >10{sup 6} yrs, the low-strain field in the Snake River Plain and Owyhee-Oregon Plateau would extend through the Quaternary.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Estimate of Geothermal Energy Resource in Major U.S. Sedimentary Basins (Presentation)

This study estimates the magnitude of geothermal energy from fifteen major known US sedimentary basins and ranks these basins relative to their potential. Because most sedimentary basins have been explored for oil and gas, well logs, temperatures at depth, and reservoir properties are known. This reduces exploration risk and allows development of geologic exploration models for each basin as wellas a relative assessment of geologic risk elements for each play. The total available thermal resource for each basin was estimated using the volumetric heat-in-place method originally proposed by Muffler (USGS). Total sedimentary thickness maps, stratigraphic columns, cross sections, and temperature gradient Information were gathered for each basin from published articles, USGS reports, andstate geological survey reports. When published data was insufficient, thermal gradients and reservoir properties were derived from oil and gas well logs obtained on oil and gas commission websites. Basin stratigraphy, structural history, and groundwater circulation patterns were studied in order to develop a model that estimates resource size and temperature distribution, and to qualitativelyassess reservoir productivity.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Characterization of the Triassic Newark Basin of New York and New Jersey for Geologic Storage of Carbon Dioxide

The project Characterization of the Triassic Newark Basin of New York and New Jersey for Geologic Storage of Carbon Dioxide is one of 9 site characterization projects that were implemented as part of ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act). Data from this project was used to improve resolution of data in NATCARB in the area of study. Data related to this study has already been incorporated in NATCARB Atlas. Sandia Technologies, LLC, and co-investigator Conrad Geoscience Corporation, examined the potential for large-scale, permanent CO2 storage in sedimentary strata within the Newark Rift Basin. The Newark Rift Basin underlies an industrialized, developed region comprising parts of New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. The project characterized and investigated the suitability of Triassic age sedimentary formations for potential geologic CO2 storage. The project team drilled and cored two test wells to define the sedimentary geologic formations underlying the basin and to document or reach basement rock. With this geologic characterization phase, an integration of seismic, geologic, borehole, and formation core results provided a higher resolution assessment of CO2 storage potential. The Stockton Formation is known to be a potentially favorable geologic storage formation in the basin. In 2011, the 1-NYSTA Tandem Lot stratigraphic test well was drilled to a depth of 6,855 feet in the northern portion of the Newark Basin in southern New York State. Approximately 9 miles south-southeast on the Lamont Doherty Campus, TW-4 was drilled and cored in 2013 to a depth of 1,802 feet and contacted apparent igneous basement at a depth of 1,712 feet. Both wells penetrated the Palisades Sill ranging from 800 feet thick in the eastern well to approximately 1,800 feet in thickness at the 1-NYSTA Tandem Lot deep drill site. A diabase sill can provide an excellent seal and dense confining layer for potential CO2 storage reservoirs and flow layers that are situated beneath it within the Stockton Sandstone. The Stockton Sandstone was encountered beneath the sill in the TW-4 well on the Lamont campus, and data integration suggests that it was likely observed near total depth in the deep 1-NYSTA Tandem Lot well. The test wells confirm and define reservoirs are present beneath the sill and offer CO2 storage potential. The integration of geologic and reservoir characterization of well logs, formation cores, and formation fluids indicated Triassic age lacustrine playa lake and mudbank shales of the Upper Passaic Group can provide an effective seal for the porous and permeable underlying sandstone reservoir layers. This project acquired seismic data, drilled borehole well logs, acquired core samples, and integrated these findings to provide a better understanding of the subsurface geologic formations in the Newark Rift Basin. These findings have contributed to a higher degree of accuracy in predicting potential geologic storage opportunities, while refining geologic storage capacity estimates for the indicated reservoirs and flow units.

.las↗

Advances in 3D Geologic Modeling of Alluvial Basins with a Focus on Facies and Property Modeling

The unsaturated zone alluvium reference case is one of several geologic systems under consideration by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy for hosting repositories for spent nuclear fuel and associated waste (Sevougian et al., 2019). As noted by Mariner et al. (2018), the generic alluvial basin offers positive attributes that merit its consideration as a reference case by the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) campaign. There are hundreds of alluvial basins and sub-basins scattered across the arid western United States (Figure 1-1). Precipitation and infiltration rates are relatively low with high evapotranspiration, resulting in vertical separation between repository and water table and thus longer transport paths to an aquifer. Accumulations of alluvial sediments within these basins are typically on the order of hundreds of meters, and locally may exceed 1,000 m in thickness, as is the case for the Deming sub-basin in southern New Mexico. A thick geologic host medium, which serves as the natural barrier system (NBS) in the conceptual model framework of a geologic disposal system, isolates the waste packages from receptors in the biosphere. Further, alluvial basin fill is typically comprised of stacked playa and lacustrine deposits along the basin axis (Perry et al., 2018). Characterized by low permeability, these layers protect the biosphere above the repository and the groundwater resources below the repository.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Identifying and Characterizing Impact Melt Outcrops in the Nectaris Basin

The Nectaris Basin is an 820-km diameter, multi-ring impact basin located on the near side of the Moon. Nectaris is a defining stratigraphic horizon based on relationships between ejecta units, giving its name to the Nectarian epoch of lunar history. Lunar basin chronology based on higher resolution LRO imagery and topography, while assigning some important basins like Serenitatis to pre-Nectarian time, were generally consistent with those previously derived. Based on this stratigraphy, at least 11 large basins formed in the time between Nectaris and Imbrium. The absolute age of Nectaris, therefore, is a crucial marker in the lunar time-stratigraphic sequence for understanding the impact flux on the Moon, and by extension, the entire inner solar system. For several decades, workers have attempted to constrain the age of the Nectaris basin through radiometric dating of lunar samples. However, there is little agreement on which samples in our collection represent Nectaris, if any, and what the correct radiometric age of such samples is. The importance of the age of Nectaris goes far beyond assigning a stratigraphic marker to lunar chronology. Several dynamical models use Nectaris as their pin date, so that this date becomes crucial in understanding the time-correlated effects in the rest of the solar system. The importance of the Nectaris basin age, coupled with its nearside, mid-latitude location, make remnants of the impact-melt sheet an attractive target for a future mission, either for in-situ dating or for sample return. We have started exploring this possibility. We have begun a consortium data-analysis effort bringing multiple datasets and analysis methods to bear on these putative impact-melt deposits to characterize their extent, elemental composition and mineralogy, maturity and geologic setting, and to identify potential landing sites that meet both operational safety and science requirements.

Nectaris Basin↗

Modeling regional precipitation over the Indus River basin of Pakistan using statistical downscaling

Complex processes govern spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation within the high-mountainous headwater regions (commonly known as the upper Indus basin (UIB)), of the Indus River basin of Pakistan. Reliable precipitation simulations particularly over the UIB present a major scientific challenge due to regional complexity and inadequate observational coverage. Here, we present a statistical downscaling approach to model observed precipitation of the entire Indus basin, with a focus on UIB within available data constraints. Taking advantage of recent high altitude (HA) observatories, we perform precipitation regionalization using K-means cluster analysis to demonstrate effectiveness of low-altitude stations to provide useful precipitation inferences over more uncertain and hydrologically important HA of the UIB. We further employ generalized linear models (GLM) with gamma and Tweedie distributions to identify major dynamic and thermodynamic drivers from a reanalysis dataset within a robust cross-validation framework that explain observed spatiotemporal precipitation patterns across the Indus basin. Final statistical models demonstrate higher predictability to resolve precipitation variability over wetter southern Himalayans and different lower Indus regions, by mainly using different dynamic predictors. The modeling framework also shows an adequate performance over more complex and uncertain trans-Himalayans and the northwestern regions of the UIB, particularly during the seasons dominated by the westerly circulations. However, the cryosphere-dominated trans-Himalayan regions, which largely govern the basin hydrology, require relatively complex models that contain dynamic and thermodynamic circulations. Furthermore, we also analyzed relevant atmospheric circulations during precipitation anomalies over the UIB, to evaluate physical consistency of the statistical models, as an additional measure of reliability. Overall, our results suggest that such circulation-based statistical downscaling has the potential to improve our understanding towards distinct features of the regional-scale precipitation across the upper and lower Indus basin. Additionally, such understanding should help to assess the response of this complex, data-scarce, and climate-sensitive river basin amid future climatic changes, to serve communal and scientific interests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Relationships among forest type, watershed characteristics, and watershed ET in rural basins of the Southeastern US

Evapotranspiration (ET) typically accounts for 60–70% of precipitation in rural basins of the Southeastern United States. Since 1930, substantial reforestation of former croplands has occurred in the Piedmont and Appalachian Highlands in this area, leading to an expected increase in ET and reduction in baseflow. This study examines relationships between basin vegetative cover, abiotic factors, and water-budget partitioning in 45 USGS-gaged rural basins in the Southeastern US. Data are for the 1982–2014 water years with watersheds having ≥40% forest cover, crystalline-rock aquifers, minimal basin water export, and no large reservoirs. Long-term annual ET is calculated using the water-budget equation (ET = P-Q), which ranges from 641 to 971 mm/yr. (median 824). Vegetative cover and other basin variables are regressed against ET to quantify the effects of vegetative and forest types. Budyko analysis is employed to compare the watersheds and to evaluate factors affecting residuals. Regression analysis indicates that ET behavior is best explained by abiotic factors (i.e., precipitation and temperature) but forest-cover type also has some effect. Evergreen forest cover is less common than deciduous or mixed forest but has a positive relationship with ET, while deciduous and total forest have negative relationships with ET. Comparison of water-balance and Budyko-estimated ET indicates that deciduous and total forest are associated with negative residuals while evergreen is not significant. Furthermore, these results show that: forest cover effects on basin ET are complicated; forest-cover type is important for water-yield management in this region, and abiotic basin characteristics exert stronger control than forest cover on ET.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Basin scale distributions of dissolved manganese, nickel, zinc and cadmium in the Mediterranean Sea

Samples for dissolved trace metal concentrations were collected during GEOTRACES expedition GA04-N in summer/spring in the Mediterranean Sea, starting in the Atlantic Ocean and sampling both deep basins of the Mediterranean Sea. Outflow of Mediterranean Outflow Water leads to elevated concentrations of Mn, Ni and Zn in the Atlantic Ocean, but a concentration minimum in the Atlantic distribution of Cd. Nevertheless, when comparing the in- and outflow, the Mediterranean is a net source of Cd to the Atlantic Ocean. Surface concentrations of Mn, Ni, Zn and Cd are elevated in the Mediterranean relative to the Atlantic Ocean where Ni and Cd gradually increased along the eastward surface water flow path, Zn reached a homogenous concentration in the order of 1 to 1.5 nM, and Mn displayed a patchy surface distribution. The observed differences are attributable to the different dynamics of their biogeochemical cycling, notably the partitioning between the dissolved and particulate phases due to biological uptake, scavenging and possibly organic complexation. The elevated surface concentrations of Mn, Ni, Zn and Cd in the Mediterranean are derived from atmospheric deposition, where most likely Zn and Cd are mainly sourced from anthropogenic origin, Mn mostly from lithogenic origin and Ni from both anthropogenic and lithogenic origin. Dissolved Zn and Cd, as well as phosphate and nitrate, display striking inter-basin fractionations with elevated concentrations in the deep water of the western basin compared to the deep eastern basin, without a coinciding increase in the apparent oxygen utilization. Given that physical circulation or contribution from biogenic particulate metals cannot explain the elevated dissolved concentrations, an external non-biological source is required. This source is most likely a vertical flux of metal laden particles dissolving through the water column of the western Mediterranean where these particles, most likely from anthropogenic origin, are derived from either atmospheric deposition or particulate material deposited on the continental shelves that makes its way into the deep basin. Furthermore, to confirm or detect trends in dissolved metal concentrations in the deep basin, regular basin wide assessments of the trace metal distributions in the Mediterranean are needed. The distributions of Mn, Ni, Zn and Cd in the Sea of Marmara illustrate that all of these metals can be affected by anthropogenic surface sources and highlight the different susceptibilities of the dissolved metal distributions to supply from remineralization, and to removal through scavenging. This study provides a first baseline to assess future changes and underlines that the Mediterranean marine environment is susceptible to anthropogenic disturbances, with varying effects for different metals due to differing source strengths and biogeochemical cycles.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Basin-Size Mapping: Prediction of Metastable Polymorph Synthesizability Across TaC–TaN Alloys

The sizes of the basins of attraction on the potential energy surface are helpful indicators in determining the experimental synthesizability of metastable phases. In principle, these basins can be controlled with changes in thermodynamic conditions such as composition, pressure, and surface energy. Herein, we use random structure sampling to computationally study how alloying smoothly perturbs basin of attraction sizes. The TaC 1-x N x pseudobinary is an ideal test system given the structural and polymorphic contrast of its parent compounds and their technological relevance as epitaxial substrates for Al 1-x Ga x N. While we find limited thermodynamic stability across all computationally observed phases, random structure sampling shows a significant composition region where the rocksalt basin dominates. As such, we predict the potential for the nonequilibrium synthesis of metastable rocksalt TaC 1-x N x alloys as substrates for Al 1-x Ga x N. At higher nitrogen concentrations, other low-energy metastable polymorphs emerge that continue to retain the hexagonal close packing suitable for III-N growth. Confidence in these trends was established through uncertainty quantification of the basin sizes and energy distributions; such analysis utilized the Beta and Dirichlet distributions. In conclusion, we also find (a) polymorph basin sizes can be rationalized in terms of energetic preferences for different coordination environments; and (b) basin sizes universally shrink with increasing nitrogen content, making the system more prone to amorphous growth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Aridification of Colorado River Basin's Snowpack Regions Has Driven Water Losses Despite Ameliorating Effects of Vegetation

Abstract The Colorado River Basin is an important natural resource for the semi‐arid southwestern United States (US), where it provides water to more than 40 million people. While nearly 1.5°C of anthropogenic warming has occurred across this region from the 1880s to 2021, climate models show little agreement in the precipitation change during the same historical period, with no trend in the mean of the latest (sixth) generation of Global Climate Models. As such, here we focus on how the CO 2 increase and associated anthropogenic warming over the historical period has impacted runoff across the Colorado Basin. We find that the Colorado Basin's runoff over the historical period has decreased by 8.1% per degree Celsius of warming (°C −1 ). However, the magnitude of this sensitivity is reduced to 6.8% °C −1 when considering vegetation response to historical CO 2 . For present‐day conditions, this translates to runoff reductions of 10.3% due to anthropogenic increases in both temperature and CO 2 since 1880. We demonstrate that Colorado Basin's natural flow has been decreased by roughly the storage of Lake Mead during the 2000–2021 megadrought due to this long term anthropogenic influence, suggesting the basin's first shortage in 2021 would likely not have occurred without anthropogenic warming. We further show warming has led to disproportionate aridification in snowpack regions, causing runoff to decline at double the rate relative to non‐snowpack regions. Thus, despite only making up ∼30% of the basin's drainage area, 86% of runoff decreases in the Colorado Basin is driven by water loss in snowpack regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Congo Basin Water Balance and Terrestrial Fluxes Inferred From Satellite Observations of the Isotopic Composition of Water Vapor

Large spatio-temporal gradients in the Congo basin vegetation and rainfall are observed. However, its water-balance (evapotranspiration minus precipitation, or ET - P) is typically measured at basin-scales, limited primarily by river-discharge data, spatial resolution of terrestrial water storage measurements, and poorly constrained ET. We use observations of the isotopic composition of water vapor to quantify the spatio-temporal variability of net surface water fluxes across the Congo Basin between 2003 and 2018. These data are calibrated at basin scale using satellite gravity and total Congo river discharge measurements and then used to estimate time-varying ET - P over four quadrants representing the Congo Basin, providing first estimates of this kind for the region. We find that the multi-year record, seasonality, and interannual variability of ET - P from both the isotopes and the gravity/river discharge based estimates are consistent. Additionally, we use precipitation and gravity-based estimates with our water vapor isotope-based ET - P to calculate time and space averaged ET and net river discharge within the Congo Basin. These quadrant-scale moisture flux estimates indicate (a) substantial recycling of moisture in the Congo Basin (temporally and spatially averaged ET/P > 70%), consistent with models and visible light-based ET estimates, and (b) net river outflow is largest in the Western Congo where there are more rivers and higher flow rates. Our results confirm the importance of ET in modulating the Congo water cycle relative to other water sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗