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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11

Compatibility of segmented thermoelectric generators

It is well known that power generation efficiency improves when materials with appropriate properties are combined either in a cascaded or segmented fashion across a temperature gradient. Past methods for determining materials used in segmentation weremainly concerned with materials that have the highest figure of merit in the temperature range. However, the example of SiGe segmented with Bi2Te3 and/or various skutterudites shows a marked decline in device efficiency even though SiGe has the highest figure of merit in the temperature range. The origin of the incompatibility of SiGe with other thermoelectric materials leads to a general definition of compatibility and intrinsic efficiency. The compatibility factor derived as = (Jl+zr - 1) a~ is a function of only intrinsic material properties and temperature, which is represented by a ratio of current to conduction heat. For maximum efficiency the compatibility factor should not change with temperature both within a single material, and in the segmented leg as a whole. This leads to a measure of compatibility not only between segments, but also within a segment. General temperature trends show that materials are more self compatible at higher temperatures, and segmentation is more difficult across a larger -T. The compatibility factor can be used as a quantitative guide for deciding whether a material is better suited for segmentation orcascading. Analysis of compatibility factors and intrinsic efficiency for optimal segmentation are discussed, with intent to predict optimal material properties, temperature interfaces, and/or currentheat ratios.

Thermoelectric power generation segmented↗

Space Suit CO2 Washout During Intravehicular Activity

Space suit carbon dioxide (CO2) washout refers to the removal of CO2 gas from the oral-nasal area of a suited astronaut's (or crewmember's) helmet using the suit's ventilation system. Inadequate washout of gases can result in diminished mental/cognitive abilities as well as headaches and light headedness. In addition to general discomfort, these ailments can impair an astronaut s ability to perform mission-critical tasks ranging from flying the space vehicle to performing lunar extravehicular activities (EVAs). During design development for NASA s Constellation Program (CxP), conflicting requirements arose between the volume of air flow that the new Orion manned space vehicle is allocated to provide to the suited crewmember and the amount of air required to achieve CO2 washout in a space suit. Historically, space suits receive 6.0 actual cubic feet per minute (acfm) of air flow, which has adequately washed out CO2 for EVAs. For CxP, the Orion vehicle will provide 4.5 acfm of air flow to the suit. A group of subject matter experts (SM Es) among the EVA Systems community came to an early consensus that 4.5 acfm may be acceptable for low metabolic rate activities. However, this value appears very risky for high metabolic rates, hence the need for further analysis and testing. An analysis was performed to validate the 4.5 acfm value and to determine if adequate CO2 washout can be achieved with the new suit helmet design concepts. The analysis included computational fluid dynamic (CFD) modeling cases, which modeled the air flow and breathing characteristics of a human wearing suit helmets. Helmet testing was performed at the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, to provide a gross-level validation of the CFD models. Although there was not a direct data correlation between the helmet testing and the CFD modeling, the testing data showed trends that are very similar to the CFD modeling. Overall, the analysis yielded results that were better than anticipated, with a few unexpected findings that could not easily be explained. Results indicate that 4.5 acfm is acceptable for CO2 washout and helmet design. This paper summarizes the results of this CO2 washout study.

Augustine, Phillip M.↗

Forest Cover Associated with Improved Child Health and Nutrition: Evidence from the Malawi Demographic and Health Survey and Satellite Data

Healthy forests provide human communities with a host of important ecosystem services, including the provision of food, clean water, fuel, and natural medicines. Yet globally, about 13 million hectares of forests are lost every year, with the biggest losses in Africa and South America. As biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation due to deforestation continue at unprecedented rates, with concomitant loss of ecosystem services, impacts on human health remain poorly understood. Here, we use data from the 2010 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey, linked with satellite remote sensing data on forest cover, to explore and better understand this relationship. Our analysis finds that forest cover is associated with improved health and nutrition outcomes among children in Malawi. Children living in areas with net forest cover loss between 2000 and 2010 were 19% less likely to have a diverse diet and 29% less likely to consume vitamin A-rich foods than children living in areas with no net change in forest cover. Conversely, children living in communities with higher percentages of forest cover were more likely to consume vitamin A-rich foods and less likely to experience diarrhea. Net gain in forest cover over the 10-year period was associated with a 34% decrease in the odds of children experiencing diarrhea (P5.002). Given that our analysis relied on observational data and that there were potential unknown factors for which we could not account, these preliminary findings demonstrate only associations, not causal relationships, between forest cover and child health and nutrition outcomes. However, the findings raise concerns about the potential short- and long-term impacts of ongoing deforestation and ecosystem degradation on community health in Malawi, and they suggest that preventing forest loss and maintaining the ecosystems services of forests are important factors in improving human health and nutrition outcomes.

malawi↗

ACIX-Aqua: A Global Assessment of Atmospheric Correction Methods for Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 Over Lakes, Rivers, and Coastal Waters

Atmospheric correction over inland and coastal waters is one of the major remaining challenges in aquatic remote sensing, often hindering the quantitative retrieval of biogeochemical variables and analysis of their spatial and temporal variability within aquatic environments. The Atmospheric Correction Intercomparison Exercise (ACIX-Aqua), a joint NASA – ESA activity, was initiated to enable a thorough evaluation of eight state-of-the-art atmospheric correction (AC) processors available for Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 data processing. Over 1000 radiometric matchups from both freshwaters (rivers, lakes, reservoirs) and coastal waters were utilized to examine the quality of derived aquatic reflectances (ρ̂w). This dataset originated from two sources: Data gathered from the international scientific community (henceforth called Community Validation Database, CVD), which captured predominantly inland water observations, and the Ocean Color component of AERONET measurements (AERONET-OC), representing primarily coastal ocean environments. This volume of data permitted the evaluation of the AC processors individually (using all the matchups) and comparatively (across seven different Optical Water Types, OWTs) using common matchups. We found that the performance of the AC processors differed for CVD and AERONET-OC matchups, likely reflecting inherent variability in aquatic and atmospheric properties between the two datasets. For the former, the median errors in ρ̂w560 and ρ̂w664 were found to range from 20 to 30% for best-performing processors. Using the AERONET-OC matchups, our performance assessments showed that median errors within the 15–30% range in these spectral bands may be achieved. The largest uncertainties were associated with the blue bands (25 to 60%) for best-performing processors considering both CVD and AERONET-OC assessments. We further assessed uncertainty propagation to the downstream products such as near-surface concentration of chlorophyll-a (Chla) and Total Suspended Solids (TSS). Using satellite matchups from the CVD along with in situ Chla and TSS, we found that 20–30% uncertainties in ρ̂w490≤λ≤743nm yielded 25–70% uncertainties in derived Chla and TSS products for top-performing AC processors. We summarize our results using performance matrices guiding the satellite user community through the OWT-specific relative performance of AC processors. Our analysis stresses the need for better representation of aerosols, particularly absorbing ones, and improvements in corrections for sky- (or sun-) glint and adjacency effects, in order to achieve higher quality downstream products in freshwater and coastal ecosystems.

Nima Pahlevan↗

Hot Isostatic Pressing for Reduction of Defects in Additively Manufactured Inconel-718 Preliminary Simulation Approach and Results

Selective laser melting (SLM) of Inconel-718 (IN718) is a promising advanced manufacturing technology; however, challenges exist for fracture-critical parts where pores induced during the manufacturing process reduce fatigue life of the material. Hot isostatic pressing (HIP) is a common post processing technique used to reduce the part porosity by exposing parts to high temperature and pressures. Pore closure depends on the pore shape, trapped gas, and HIP parameters, and the process can only be optimized by understanding the effect of these variables. An analysis capability is described to better understand the conditions necessary for pore closure, and the effect of several variables on porosity are explored and compared to a baseline case. The importance of valid material response models is identified as a significant factor in model accuracy; especially the creep material response model which, in the baseline case, predicts that creep strain accounts for 87.7% of the total strain at the conclusion of the HIP cycle. Lessons learned are described, in addition to future work including model validation.

Joshua M Fody↗

Space Environmental Effects on Additively Manufactured (AM) Parts on MISSE-9/10

The Materials on International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) experiments have made a continuous presence on the ISS and allowed for testing of performance and durability of materials exposed to the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) space environment. Additive Manufacturing (AM) has been included on several MISSE flights, and many companies (Made in Space and Stratasys) and NASA centers wanted to test various AM material samples. The goal of studying Space Environmental Effects on AM Parts with MISSE 9/10 was to fly promising metal and polymer AM material samples (dogbones) that could have future manufacturing capabilities in space and conduct post-flight analysis of these materials via mechanical and optical properties. On these flights, MISSE-9 contained three Inconel and 12 polymer samples and MISSE-10 included three Inconel and 16 polymer samples. Before flying to the ISS, all the samples underwent thermal vacuum bakeout (at 60°C for 24 hours and 10-6 torr). After bakeout, control and flight experiments were weighed, and optical properties were taken. Optical properties such as solar absorptance and infrared emittance were taken on the control samples and the flight samples (preflight and postflight). To understand more about the mechanical properties of the AM samples, tensile testing was conducted on the samples to determine the yield and ultimate tensile strength of the dogbone samples against the control. Lastly, the torque on the fasteners securing the dogbone samples were loosened and measured using a torque wrench, and they were compared to their preflight torque specification required. Optical properties and masses were recorded before flight, and the postflight results were recorded and collected in June 2022 to study the effects. With the postflight analysis, NASA engineers can now better characterize how UV radiation and thermal cycling affect the material properties.

Materials on International Space Station Experimen↗

Investigating Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) Glovebox and Support Components Compared to Custom Curatorial Laboratories

There is a need envisioned to investigate the application of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) systems as tools that could be used within commercial preliminary curation as the expected space economy is supported and begins to take flight. NASA is involved with supporting and developing the space economy [1] and therefore it’s feasible that at some point, a commercial space company would bring back materials and either store initially, or permanently, within COTS equipment as a stand-in for custom curation laboratories. While utilizing opportunities to explore this capability at NASA-Johnson Space Center (JSC) during the establishment of other laboratories [2] it was realized that cleanliness and/or other properties could be evaluated for these COTS systems during their installation in advanced research facilities that are not ISO-class rated clean rooms. Several aspects of a COTS-Curation system were explored including various gloves for curation manipulation within a negative pressure glovebox (Fig.1), Balazs organic and inorganic contaminant levels testing prior to glovebox ever being used, mode swapping comparison of recirculation vs. single pass, constant monitoring of oxygen (O2) and moisture (H2O) levels in various conditions, etc. To acquire inorganic and organic compound loads inside the glovebox, Balazs wafer testing and gas sampling were implemented. These are standardized analytical tests provided by Balazs™ NanoAnalysis, a division of Air Liquide USA. Deployment of 8-inch silicon wafer witness plates for 24-hours in an undisturbed environment capture the organic compound load and inorganic trace metal contents which can be obtained by Vapor Phase Decomposition Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (VPD ICP-MS). Balazs gas sample analysis was also performed for better measurements of volatile organic compounds (VOC) in glovebox air analyzed by Thermal Desorption Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry (TD GC-MS). These analytical testings were carried out in a controlled ultra high pure (UHP) gaseous nitrogen (N2)-purged environment where oxygen and moisture contents were continuously monitored at certain temperature and pressure. The preliminary outcomes of these testings are promising. The COTS systems appear to maintain the steady-state controlled environment for days, if not weeks, with uninterrupted gaseous N2-supply which was operated from a standard medium pressure LN2 250L 230L dewar, exchanged as needed. The outgassing load can be maintained by selecting the glove materials that have the least outgassing and particle shedding performances. Further experiments will be considered to validate the preliminary findings. While this project is exploratory, it is not intended as an endorsement by NASA Curation for approved materials or usage for advanced curatorial activities. NASA does not endorse nor promote any one particular product or company. References: [1] McCubbin F. M. et al. (2019) Space Science Reviews 215:A48. [2] Lewis, E.K. et. al (2024) LPSC LV, Abstract #2457.

Curation↗

Data Analysis for the SOLIS Vector Spectromagnetograph

The National Solar Observatory's SOLIS Vector Spectromagnetograph (VSM), which will produce three or more full-disk maps of the Sun's photospheric vector magnetic field every day for at least one solar magnetic cycle, is in the final stages of assembly. Initial observations, including cross-calibration with the current NASA/NSO spectromagnetograph (SPM) will soon be carried out at a test site in Tucson. This paper discusses data analysis techniques for reducing the raw data, calculation of line-of-sight magnetograms and both quick-look and high-precision inference of vector fields from Stokes spectral profiles. Existing SPM algorithms, suitably modified to accomodate the cameras, scanning pattern, and polarization calibration optics for the VSM, will be used to "clean" the raw data and to process line-of-sight, magnetograms. A recent. version of the High Altitude Observatory Milne-Eddington (HAO-ME) inversion code (Skumanich and Lites; 1987, 11)J 322, p. 473) will he used for high-precision vector fields since the algorithm has been extensively tested, is well understood, and is fast enough to complete data analysis within 24 hours of data acquisition. The simplified inversion algorithm of Auer, Heasley. arid House (1977, Sol. Phys. 55, p. 47) forms the initial guess for this version of the HAO-ME code and will be used for quick-look vector analysis of VSM data since its performance on simulated Stokes profiles is better than other candidate methods. Improvements (e.g., principal components analysis or neural networks) are under consideration and will be straightforward to implement. However, current resources are sufficient to store the original Stokes profiles only long enough for high-precision analysis. Retrospective reduction of Stokes data with improved methods will not be possible, and modifications will only be introduced when the advantages of doing so are compelling enough to justify discontinuity in the long-term data stream.

Jones, Harrison P.↗

Optical Particle Measurements during EPCAPE Field Campaign Report

This campaign requested the deployment of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility optical particle counter (OPC) at the first ARM Mobile Facility (AMF1) located at the Scripps Pier in La Jolla, California during the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE). The addition of the OPC was requested for two reasons. (1) Close the gap between the scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) and aerodynamic particle sizer (APS) size distribution from the Aerosol Observing System (AOS) measurements. (2) Principal investigator Petters has been working with Tracking Aerosol Convection Interaction Experiment (TRACER) data to compute particle fluxes from Doppler lidar (Petters et al. 2024). Briefly, backscatter flux is obtained using the eddy covariance technique using the Doppler vertical velocity and attenuated backscatter. Building upon prior studies, we were able to relate backscatter to particle number concentration by calibrating the lidar retrievals against optical particle counter-measured ground-based aerosol size distribution and radiosonde-interpolated relative humidity at lidar sample height. Performing similar analysis was of interest to EPCAPE to better understand the emissions and vertical transport of large particles into the overlying stratus clouds. However, as stated above, this analysis requires an optical size distribution that covers the 0.3-30-μm-diameter size range. The OPC was deployed between 2023-04-14 and 2024-02-14. The deployment, data quality analysis, and data archiving was handled by the DOE ARM instrument mentor team without additional involvement by the principal investigator. Data quality was marked as “routine” for the majority of the campaign.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

C-band station coordinate determination for the GEOS-C altimeter calibration area

Dynamical orbital techniques were employed to estimate the center-of-mass station coordinates of six C-band radars located in the designated primary GEOS-C radar altimeter calibration area. This work was performed in support of the planned GEOS-C mission (December, 1974 launch). The sites included Bermuda, Grand Turk, Antigua, Wallops Island (Virginia), and Merritt Island (Florida). Two sites were estimated independently at Wallops Island yielding better than 40 cm relative height recovery, with better than 10 cm and 1 m (relative) recovery for phi and gamma respectively. Error analysis and comparisons with other investigators indicate that better than 2 m relative recovery was achieved at all sites. The data used were exclusively that from the estimated sites and included 18 orbital arcs which were less than two orbital revolutions in length, having successive tracks over the area. The techniques employed here, given their independence of global tracking support, can be effectively employed to improve various geodetic datums by providing very long and accurate baselines. The C-band data taken on GEOS-C should be employed to improve such geodetic datums as the European-1950 using similar techniques.

Krabill, W. B.↗

Assessment of Hydroxyl Radical Reactivity in Sulfur-Containing Amino Acid Models Under Acidic pH

Methionine residues in proteins and peptides are frequently oxidized by losing one electron. The presence of nearby amide groups is crucial for this process, enabling methionine to participate in long-range electron transfer. Hydroxyl radical (HO•) plays an important role being generated in aerobic organisms by cellular metabolisms as well as by exogenous sources such as ionizing radiations. The reaction of HO• with methionine mainly affords the one-electron oxidation of the thioether moiety through two consecutive steps (HO• addition to the sulfur followed by HO− elimination). We recently investigated the reaction of HO• with model peptides mimicking methionine and its cysteine-methylated counterpart, i.e., CH3C(O)NHCHXC(O)NHCH3, where X = CH2CH2SCH3 or CH2SCH3 at pH 7. The reaction mechanism varied depending on the distance between the sulfur atom and the peptide backbone, but, for a better understanding of various suggested equilibria, the analysis of the flux of protons is required. We extended the previous study to the present work at pH 4 using pulse radiolysis techniques with conductivity and optical detection of transient species, as well as analysis of final products by LC-MS and high-resolution MS/MS following γ-radiolysis. Comparing all the data provided a better understanding of how the presence of nearby amide groups influences the one-electron oxidation mechanism.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

An Improved Technique for the Preparation of Mounted or Unmounted Carbon/Epoxy Specimens

As carbon/epoxy materials became more prevalent in the aerospace industry, microstructural analysis demanded specimen preparation techniques that led to better polished surfaces, achievable in a shorter time, and using fewer steps. The desire to use image analysis for material characterization also helped drive the goal for defect free surfaces. At NASA-Langley (LaRC), carbon/epoxy specimens had been historically prepared in 1 inch diameter Bakelite mounts. Carbon/epoxy specimens that were 1/8 to 1/4 inch thick were not affected by the heat and pressure required for mounting in Bakelite, however thinner specimens were crushed during mounting. A two-part room temperature curing epoxy was chosen as an alternative but sometimes voids developed between the specimen and the mounting material. This was prevented by either heating the epoxy to 140 degrees F to lower the viscosity of the epoxy or by using a vacuum impregnation apparatus. Both techniques helped facilitate flow and allowed the epoxy to penetrate crevices.

Edahl, Robert A., Jr.↗

Improving Structural Test and Analysis Correlation Using Digital Image Correlation Boundary Measurements

Simplified idealizations, such as clamped or simply supported, are commonly used as support boundary conditions in modeling and analysis of tested aerospace structures. However, these simplifications are not always appropriate and characterization of the response of non-rigid boundaries is often required to improve test and analysis correlation. While e analysis models are typically modified to better represent the test, this modification is often not practical due to the complexities of the boundary response. A study is conducted to examine the use of digital image correlation (DIC) to measure the boundary support structure response and then to adjust the test data to remove the effects of the boundary response in order to improve test and analysis correlation. A high-aspect ratio composite wing test is the subject of the study. Three sources of boundary flexibility contributing to rigid body rotation of the test wing are identified and quantified using both DIC and conventional test data. The wing displacement test data are adjusted using DIC data for these sources. Wing displacement test data is also adjusted using direct measurement of wing rotation from a DIC system that monitored the top surface, root region of the wing, and using available conventional instrumentation. The adjusted data exhibits improved test and analysis correlation and demonstrated the benefit of using DIC along with conventional instrumentation to collect and interpret test data.

Andrew E Lovejoy↗

Analytical modeling of under-the-wing externally blown flap powered-lift noise

The sound field produced by the interaction of a subsonic jet with a large-scale model of the under the wing externally blown flap in an approach attitude was analyzed. The analysis was performed to obtain a better understanding of the dominant noise sources and the mechanisms governing the peak sound pressure level frequencies of the broadband spectra. An analytical expression is derived which incorporates two available theories and experimental data; the expression predicts the sound field along a circular arc of approximately 120 deg measured from the upstream jet axis in the fly-over plane. The analysis compares favorably with test results obtained from two large-scale models, one using cold air from a conical nozzle and the other using hot gas from a TF-34 turbofan engine having a conical exhaust nozzle with a 12 lobe internal forced mixer. The frequency at which the peak sound pressure level occurs appears to be governed by a phenomenon which produces periodic formation and shedding of large-scale turbulence structures from the nozzle lip.

Mckinzie, D. J., Jr.↗

Elliptically-Contoured Tensor-variate Distributions with Application to Image Learning

Statistical analysis of tensor-valued data has largely used the tensor-variate normal (TVN) distribution that may be inadequate for data arising from distributions with heavier or lighter tails. We study a general family of elliptically contoured (EC) TV distributions and derive its characterizations, moments, marginal, and conditional distributions. We describe procedures for maximum likelihood estimation from data that are (1) uncorrelated draws from an EC distribution, (2) from a scale mixture of the TVN distribution, and (3) from an underlying but unknown EC distribution, for which we extend Tyler’s robust estimator. A detailed simulation study highlights the benefits of choosing an EC distribution over the TVN for heavier-tailed data. We develop TV classification rules using discriminant analysis and EC errors and show that they better predict cats and dogs from images in the Animal Faces-HQ dataset than the TVN-based rules. A novel tensor-on-tensor regression and TV analysis of variance (TANOVA) framework under EC errors is also demonstrated to better characterize gender, age, and ethnic origin than the usual TVN-based TANOVA in the celebrated labeled faces of the wild dataset.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

C-band station coordinate determination for the Geos-C altimeter calibration area

Dynamical orbital techniques were employed to estimate the center-of-mass station coordinates of six C-band radars located in the designated primary Geos-C radar altimeter calibration area. This work was performed in support of the planned Geos-C mission (December 1974 launch). The sites included Bermuda, Grand Turk, Antigua, Wallops Island (Virginia), and Merritt Island (Florida). Two sites were estimated independently at Wallops Island yielding better than 40 cm relative height recovery, with better than 10 cm and 1m (relative) recovery for phi and lambda, respectively. The tracking data used in this analysis were taken during 1969 when the radars tracked the Geos-II transponder. In all, over 120 passes of data were used. Range biases were estimated. Error analysis and comparisons with other investigators indicate that better than 2m (1 sigma) relative recovery has been achieved at all sites.

Klosko, S. M.↗

Multifunctional Collaborative Modeling and Analysis Methods in Engineering Science

Engineers are challenged to produce better designs in less time and for less cost. Hence, to investigate novel and revolutionary design concepts, accurate, high-fidelity results must be assimilated rapidly into the design, analysis, and simulation process. This assimilation should consider diverse mathematical modeling and multi-discipline interactions necessitated by concepts exploiting advanced materials and structures. Integrated high-fidelity methods with diverse engineering applications provide the enabling technologies to assimilate these high-fidelity, multi-disciplinary results rapidly at an early stage in the design. These integrated methods must be multifunctional, collaborative, and applicable to the general field of engineering science and mechanics. Multifunctional methodologies and analysis procedures are formulated for interfacing diverse subdomain idealizations including multi-fidelity modeling methods and multi-discipline analysis methods. These methods, based on the method of weighted residuals, ensure accurate compatibility of primary and secondary variables across the subdomain interfaces. Methods are developed using diverse mathematical modeling (i.e., finite difference and finite element methods) and multi-fidelity modeling among the subdomains. Several benchmark scalar-field and vector-field problems in engineering science are presented with extensions to multidisciplinary problems. Results for all problems presented are in overall good agreement with the exact analytical solution or the reference numerical solution. Based on the results, the integrated modeling approach using the finite element method for multi-fidelity discretization among the subdomains is identified as most robust. The multiple-method approach is advantageous when interfacing diverse disciplines in which each of the method's strengths are utilized. The multifunctional methodology presented provides an effective mechanism by which domains with diverse idealizations are interfaced. This capability rapidly provides the high-fidelity results needed in the early design phase. Moreover, the capability is applicable to the general field of engineering science and mechanics. Hence, it provides a collaborative capability that accounts for interactions among engineering analysis methods.

Ransom, Jonathan B.↗

The Impact of Demographic Lifecycle States on Time to Vehicle Purchase: Insights from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics

This study examines the impact of demographic lifecycle stages on the timing of vehicle purchases, using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1999 to 2021. Survival analysis was employed to model the duration until households purchase vehicles, incorporating key lifecycle variables such as age, employment status, marital status, childbirth, home ownership, and the presence of school-going children. The life table results indicate that early adulthood (ages 20–35) is the prime period for vehicle acquisition, with significant peaks around ages 25 to 30. Additionally, the instantaneous hazard of purchasing a vehicle is highest in the late 40s and early 50s. According to the Cox proportional hazards model, employment, marital status, and home ownership significantly increase the likelihood of purchasing a vehicle, while living in multi-unit dwellings decreases it. Interaction effects reveal that married individuals with employed spouses are substantially more likely to purchase vehicles. In conclusion, this study serves as a steppingstone toward integrating demographic lifecycle analysis into car ownership modeling that better reflects real-world scenarios and increases the accuracy of policy and strategic planning.

Car ownership↗