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NASA NTRS2016

An Invited Preface for the Following Book: Astrobiologia, Uma Ciencia Emergente

Since the dawn of civilization, we have beheld at the beauty and wonder of the natural world around us and wondered how it came to be. We have pondered the past, and have been intrigued about the future. For this we are unique. Our ancestors looked to the vastness of space and thought surely there are others out there. We are now at a new time in human history where we can address these age-old questions with a scientific approach and study rigorously the three big questions of astrobiology: Where do we come from? Where are we going? and Are we alone? These fundamental questions of astrobiology correspond to those of humanity, and arguably, what makes us human. And so we cannot help but be drawn to the field. Unlike other scientific disciplines, Astrobiology draws on the latest advances in a multitude of fields, from evolutionary and molecular biology, to prebiotic and interstellar chemistry, from astrophysics to astronomy, with a healthy dose of earth and planetary science. Astrobiology is in reality a "metadiscipline" drawing on useful science wherever it is to be found. From a practical point of view, this endeavor requires the interaction of scientists who might not normally meet each other, much less work on a common research project. And, unlike most other scientific disciplines, Astrobiology has implications for how we see ourselves, and how we interact with the earth and beyond. "Where do we come from" touches on the "why" questions that have intrigued not just scientists but philosophers and theologians. "Where are we going" adds to these an economic and political involvement that is currently being played out with discussions of climate change. "And are we alone" will someday force us to face the fact that we as living creatures are not unique, or perhaps that we are utterly alone in the universe, the result of a chemical history that was so improbable as to result in a sample size of one. Either result will force ethical considerations of either "the other" and their relationship to us, or our solitude and thus responsibility as the only life form in our cosmos. So what is Astrobiology? Let's start with the "Where do we come from?" A biologist will approach this looking at the evolution of life on earth, using such traditional tools as comparative anatomy and paleontology and newer tools such as molecular techniques. But this doesn't address why this happened the way it did without a comprehensive understanding of the environment. What was the temperature at such and such a time? Was the earth in a snowball phase or being bombarded by meteorites -- or even just a single large, well-placed one such as struck off the Yucatan peninsula 65 million years ago. This event could not have been predicted by population genetics alone, yet it had the most profound influence on our evolution as without it, we could still be in a world dominated by dinosaurs with the mammals cowering under cover. But it is not enough to go back to LUCA, the Last Universal Common Ancestor of all extant life. One must go back to the dawn of life. How did life arise? What was the environmental backdrop that allowed it to happen? How did we happen to end up with a habitable planet? Indeed, what is the origin and evolution of our solar system, galaxy, biogenic elements all the way back to the Big Bang. The "Where are we going?" tends to be ignored in many astrobiology programs, but in fact this is of the most immediate importance to us. Whereas the past was dominated by physical and chemical processes, and organismal interactions, the future has a new major player: us. While we probably don't have the power (yet) to stop our galaxy passing through another, or even reset the sun or stop the movement of the moon away from the earth, all of these things will influence the future of life on earth. We are already proving that we have the power to visit other bodies in our solar system, either with humans or our robotic surrogates. We are changing our atmospheric composition and thus our climate. We have the power to render species extinct, including our own. But we also have the power to use these tools for the common good, to extend our lifetimes and reclaim our rivers and forests. Which will it be? And then there is the question where science fiction becomes a reality: "Are we alone?" While many people are anxious to find signs of intelligent life out there, such a creature may not share either our curiosity or values. But what if there was a beneficent alien civilization that could communicate with us, perhaps forging a mutual understanding? More likely in the forseeable future is finding a small life, less evolved, life form. Note I did not use the word "simple" as there is nothing "simple" about life, ever. Which brings us back to the question: what is life? So where does Brazil come in? For nearly a decade there has been interest in a Brazilian astrobiology program, from a small side meeting held by the Brazilian Exobiology Program (BEP) of the Brazilian National Research Council, held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on August 12, 2009, in association with the IAU Assembly to subsequent workshops held in several locations and membership of the Brazilian program in the NASA Astrobiology Institute (NAI). Each time I go to Brazil, I am impressed by the enthusiasm of the community, both scientific and student, the latter an excellent omen for the future of astrobiology in Brazil. Facilities are being built to supplement the natural laboratories that Brazil is blessed to have. In my own lab I have been privileged to have a wonderful Brazilian postdoctoral fellow, Dr. Ivan Paulino-Lima, resulting in a daily reminder of the program. I am honored to have been part of the development of astrobiology in Brazil, and hope that this relationship will continue to flourish. Clearly to advance astrobiology needs new knowledge, a reorganization of that which is known, and space missions. To help the reader join on this quest, what follows is a buffet of topics that will allow the reader to nibble on the richness that is Astrobiology. And, like a fabulous meal, it should make you want more. Welcome to Astrobiology.

Are we alone?↗
DOE OSTI2018

Environmental licensing in Brazilian's crushed stone industries

Highlights: • Failures in environmental reporting compromise the effectiveness of the environmental license process • The infrastructure of environmental agencies must be improved • The participation of society is essential for monitoring industries - Abstract: The crushed stone industries' activities are characterized by the extraction and processing of stones for use as aggregates in construction. The sector causes environmental impacts that can be mitigated by the implementation of control instruments, namely, environmental licensing, whose purpose is to carry out monitoring of potentially polluting activities. In this paper, it was analyzed the environmental studies of three industries located in Monsenhor Gil, Piauí, Brazil, elaborated as requisites for obtaining the environmental and mineral licenses. There were made visits to the State Department of Environment and Water Resources (SEMAR) and to the National Department of Mineral Production (DNPM) to verify the environmental reports and the environmental and mineral licensing processes. There were also made visits to the analyzed industries, with the aim of comparing the information contained in the studies, with the reality and verifying the implementation of the mitigating measures proposed in them, through the observation of the industries operation, and interviews with the responsible managers. Furthermore, it was made a research in the scientific literature, to know the licensing process in other countries, to compare with the Brazilian reality. From the research, in Brazilian industries, it was observed that, although all the legal steps to obtain the licenses have been fulfilled, the environmental reports have elaboration failures, such as the lack of a multidisciplinary team and the fact that some data diverge from the reality, decreasing the reliability of the evaluation of the environmental impacts caused by the projects. Also, the environmental replacement cost is not accounted in the final value of the product, and any of the industries have started the implementation of the proposed mitigation measures since they do not have mineral depletion areas. SEMAR was delayed in issuing licenses within the period established by law, and there are no periodic inspections by both the environmental agency and DNPM. It should also be pointed out that the community did not claim public hearings and there is no participation in environmental education projects, factors that compromise the effectiveness of the environmental licensing process. Regarding the process in other parts of the world, in some countries, such as Uruguay and Paraguay, the agency responsible for licensing and inspection is federal. In Argentina, as in Brazil and USA, states have autonomy to legislate on environmental issues. There is also divergence in the period of execution of the licenses, being 12 months in Brazil, while in Thailand it can be up to 56 days. In Peru, the society participation is much more representative than in Brazil, and there is differentiation in the collection form of environmental compensation fees, among countries. The failures pointed out in the Brazilian process, as well as the system of other countries, can serve as parameters for the improvement of the process' effectiveness, both in Brazil and in other parts of the world, aiming at the conservation of the environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Google Health Trends performance reflecting dengue incidence for the Brazilian states

Abstract Background Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne infection transmitted by Aedes aegypti and mainly found in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. Since its re-introduction in 1986, Brazil has become a hotspot for dengue and has experienced yearly epidemics. As a notifiable infectious disease, Brazil uses a passive epidemiological surveillance system to collect and report cases; however, dengue burden is underestimated. Thus, Internet data streams may complement surveillance activities by providing real-time information in the face of reporting lags. Methods We analyzed 19 terms related to dengue using Google Health Trends (GHT), a free-Internet data-source, and compared it with weekly dengue incidence between 2011 to 2016. We correlated GHT data with dengue incidence at the national and state-level for Brazil while using the adjusted R squared statistic as primary outcome measure (0/1). We used survey data on Internet access and variables from the official census of 2010 to identify where GHT could be useful in tracking dengue dynamics. Finally, we used a standardized volatility index on dengue incidence and developed models with different variables with the same objective. Results From the 19 terms explored with GHT, only seven were able to consistently track dengue. From the 27 states, only 12 reported an adjusted R squared higher than 0.8; these states were distributed mainly in the Northeast, Southeast, and South of Brazil. The usefulness of GHT was explained by the logarithm of the number of Internet users in the last 3 months, the total population per state, and the standardized volatility index. Conclusions The potential contribution of GHT in complementing traditional established surveillance strategies should be analyzed in the context of geographical resolutions smaller than countries. For Brazil, GHT implementation should be analyzed in a case-by-case basis. State variables including total population, Internet usage in the last 3 months, and the standardized volatility index could serve as indicators determining when GHT could complement dengue state level surveillance in other countries.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Interannual and Decadal Variability of Summer Rainfall over South America

Using the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis of Precipitation product along with the Goddard Earth Observing System reanalysis and the Climate Analysis Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, we conduct a diagnostic study of the interannual and decadal scale variability of summer rainfall over South America. Results show three leading modes of rainfall variation identified with interannual, decadal, and long-term trend variability. Together, these modes explain more than half the total variance. The first mode is highly correlated with El Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO), showing severe drought over Northeast Brazil and copious rainfall over the Ecuador coast and the area of Uruguay-Southern Brazil in El Nino years. This pattern is attributed to the large scale zonal shift of the Walker circulation and local Hadley cell anomaly induced by positive (negative) SST anomaly over the eastern (western) equatorial Pacific. In El Nino years, two convective belts indicated by upper tropospheric velocity potential trough and mid-tropospheric rising motion, which are somewhat symmetric about the equator, extend toward the northeast and the southeast into the tropical North and South Atlantic respectively. Sandwiched between the ascent is a region of descending motion over Northeast Brazil. The southern branch of the anomalous Hadley cell is dynamically linked to the increase of rainfall over Uruguay-Southern Brazil. The regional response of anomalous circulation shows a stronger South American summer monsoon and an enhanced (weakened) subtropical high over the South Atlantic (South Pacific) Ocean. The decadal variation displays a meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is tie to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In conjunction with this mode is a large scale mass swing between the polar regions and midlatitudes in both hemispheres. Over the South Atlantic and the South Pacific, the changes of the strength of the subtropical high and the associated surface wind are dynamically consistent with the distribution of local SST anomalies, suggesting the importance of the atmospheric forcing in the decadal time scale. The decadal mode also presents a weak summer monsoon in its positive phase, which reduces the moisture supply from the equatorial Atlantic and the Amazon Basin and results in negative rainfall anomalies over the central Andes and Gran Chaco. The long-term trend shows decrease of rainfall from the northwest coast to the southeast subtropical region and a southward shift of Atlantic ITCZ that leads to increased rainfall over northern and eastern Brazil. Our result shows a close link of this mode to the observed SST warming trend over the subtropical South Atlantic and a remote connection to the interdecadal SST variation over the extratropical North Atlantic found in previous studies.

Zhou, Jiayu↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sustainable Water Management: Understanding the Socioeconomic and Cultural Dimensions

With the pressing challenges of water scarcity and pollution, achieving sustainable water management is imperative for promoting long-term development. Therefore, this paper aims to examine the socio-economic and cultural factors that shape the sustainability of water management strategies in Brazil and Portugal. This study highlights various factors that influence water management, including robust legal frameworks, socio-economic disparities, cultural practices, agricultural water usage, knowledge sharing, public participation, climate change resilience, water scarcity risks, industrial water consumption, and urbanization. By conducting a SWOT analysis of water management strategies, this research synthesizes information through an extensive literature review, encompassing the legal frameworks, policies, and implemented strategies in both countries. Additionally, it investigates comparative studies among Brazil, Portugal, and other European nations to facilitate the exchange of knowledge and experiences in water management practices. The findings of this study offer valuable insights into the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats associated with water management strategies in Brazil and Portugal, thereby guiding the development of tailored policies and strategies that foster sustainability in water resource management. Additionally, the research highlights the role of digital transformation in optimizing water management practices. By integrating socio-economic, cultural, and digital factors, this study contributes to effective and sustainable water management in Brazil and Portugal, ensuring responsible utilization and preservation of water resources.

Santos, Eleonora↗
NASA NTRS2001

Impacts of ENSO on the South American Summer Monsoon During 1997-1999

Using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis, and CPC Merged Analysis Product (CMAP) rainfall, we have compared and contrasted the anomalies of the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) during two extreme years of 1997/98 (EI Nino) and 1998/99 (La Nina). The results are assessed against a "canonical" ENSO response (CER) pattern for the SASM obtained from empirical mode decomposition based on a previous period (1980-1995). Overall, the SASM anomalies compare well with CER, but with some important differences. Anomalies occurring in the warm phase of the 1997-98 El Nino are very significant and robust, while those occurring in 1998/99 La Nina, appear to be reversed from 1997/98, but are relatively weak and less well-defined. The most pronounced signal in DJF 1997/98 is the development of drought conditions in northern Brazil, excessive rainfall over northern Peru and Ecuador, and over Uruguay and southern Brazil. The tropical rainfall anomalies are associated with the eastward shift of the Walker circulation, which is represented by pronounced low-level anomalous westerlies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and easterlies over northern Brazil. The easterlies are deflected sharply southeastward by the steep topography of the Andes, enhancing the low-level jet (LLJ) along the eastern foothills of the Andes near 15-20 S. The LLJ penetrates deep into the extratropics, yielding rainfall anomalies further poleward compared to CER. During DJF 1997/98, the eastward expansion of the warm tropospheric temperature over the Nino-3 region causes anomalous geopotential height to develop in the upper troposphere above the Altiplano, leading to a strengthened Bolivian High. An upper-tropospheric jet anomaly maximum is found over the subtropical continent near 30 S, due to increasing meridional gradient of tropospheric temperature, as well as teleconnection patterns linking the South Pacific and the South Atlantic. Consistent with the CER, the South Pacific High is weakened, and the South Atlantic High is strengthened in DJF 1997/98. However, rather than appearing as a coherent large scale signal over the entire Atlantic as in CER, the South Atlantic High anomalies in DJF 1997/98 split into two separate high pressure centers; one located south of the Amazon basin, and another over the southeastern South Atlantic. The former is induced as a Rossby-wave response by ENSO-Induced sinking motion over nor-them and eastern Brazil, and the latter may be associated with extratropical teleconnection signals. Anomalous convection observed over equatorial western Africa may also have contributed to the different circulation response over the Atlantic in DFJ 1997/99 compared to the CER. Comparison of the evolution of the SASM anomalies in 1997-99 with their corresponding annual cycles, suggest that the anomalies are phase-locked to and represent either enhancement or reduction of the annual variations. Results suggest that, from a system perspective the SASM was strengthened during the 1997/98 El Nino and weakened, albeit to a lesser extent, during the 1998/99 La Nina.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Land-Use Harmonization Datasets for Global Carbon Budget 2019 and Beyond

Land-use change has been the dominant source of anthropogenic carbon emissions for most of the historical period, and is currently one of the largest and most uncertain components of the global carbon cycle. Advancing the scientific understanding on this topic requires that the best data be used as input to the best models in well-organized scientific assessments. The Land-Use Harmonization dataset (LUH2), previously developed and used as input for CMIP6 simulations, has been updated annually to provide required input to land models in the annual Global Carbon Budget (GCB) assessment. These annual LUH2-GCB updates and extensions have incorporated annual FAO wood harvest data updates for dataset years after 2015 and HYDE gridded agriculture area data updates (based on annual FAO agricultural area data updates) for dataset years after 2012, along with extrapolations to the current year due to a lag of one or more years in the FAO data releases. The resulting updated LUH2-GCB datasets have provided global, annual gridded land-use and land-use change data relating toagricultural expansion, deforestation, wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, regrowth and afforestation, and crop rotationsand pasture managementand are used by both book-keeping models and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) for the GCB. For GCB 2019,a more significant update to LUH2 was produced (LUH2-GCB2019) to correct cropland and grazing area errors in the underlying input datasets for the globally important region of Brazil, as far back as 1950. From 1951-2012 the LUH2-GCB2019 dataset begins to diverge from the LUH2 v2hdataset, with peak differences in Brazil in the year 2000 for grazing land (difference of 100,000 km2) and in the year 2009 for cropland (difference of 77,000 km2), along with significant sub-national reorganization of agricultural land-use patterns within Brazil. These LUH2-GCB2019 corrections for Brazil provide the base for future LUH2-GCB updates including the recent LUH2-GCB2020 dataset, and present a starting point for operationalizing the creation of these datasets toreduce time-lags due to the multiple input dataset and model latencies.

L Chini↗
DOE OSTI2018

Does size matter? An evaluation of length and proportion of information in environmental impact statements

Highlights: • Empirical analysis of length and proportion of information in EISs is presented. • Current EISs, in Brazil, are significantly longer than the early ones. • Baseline information is the most common element in EISs. • EIS length is affected by many variables, including project sector and size. • While relevant to decision-making, EIS length should be carefully regulated. - Abstract: For decades, authors and institutions have argued that the quality of Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) is somehow affected by the volume of information they contain. Both too little and too much information can be a problem. However, very few academic studies have addressed the issue of EIS length in detail. The objective of this article was to systematically analyze the volume of information presented in EISs, using Brazil as the empirical context. More specifically, this study evaluated the volume and proportion of information disclosed in 49 Brazilian EISs. This study also tried to identify sectorial variations and whether variables such as project size and number of pages in Terms of References are likely determinants of information volume. >146 thousand pages of EIS information were scrutinized in two rounds of content analysis. Data were organized in spreadsheets and then coded and analyzed through various descriptive and inferential statistical techniques. Overall, findings corroborate the fact that EISs are now significantly longer than the early ones, and still heavily loaded with baseline information. The average number of pages in EISs and in Non-technical Summaries was found to be 2993 and 94, respectively. Kruskal-Wallis and linear regression tests indicated that EIS length is likely affected by a combination of variables, including project size, territorial and sectorial characteristics. Such findings suggest that the historical approach of setting page limits to EISs through regulations and Terms of References is no longer appropriate for EIA practice in connection with large enterprises in Brazil, and arguably elsewhere. The article discusses its practical and academic implications, and highlights the need to further investigate the actual impacts of EIS length on decision-making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Further Analyses of the Unburied Goiania Accident Packages - 19161

In 1987, in the city of Goiania, Brazil, a derelict teletherapy machine was disassembled by scavengers and Cs-137 was released in the environment, unleashing the biggest radiological accident in Brazil. During the 15 days before the accident was acknowledged, some contaminated materials were sold and delivered to recycling factories in a few cities in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, in the form of metal scrap and recycled paper bales. The contaminated material was then collected, the metal scrap was conditioned in forty-three 200-liter drums, and the paper bales were stored in fifty 1.6 cubic meter steel boxes at the interim storage of the Nuclear and Energy Research Institute (IPEN), in the city of Sao Paulo, and there remained ever since. In 2017, 30 years later, initial analyses were performed at a sample of these boxes, checking for their activity, weight, and incongruences between the original values recorded at the time of collection and the measurement results 30 years later. The results indicated that none of the boxes checked were close to the clearance limit and that, without any sort of treatment, this radioactive waste should be stored for at least 150 years more. Visual inspection could not be performed at that time. Nowadays, some of the boxes were opened and samples from the contaminated material inside were taken for analysis. The main objective of this work is to report the results from the evaluation of the physical state of this material. After these analyses, the treatment options for volume reduction that were previously proposed were reviewed, and the method that best suits the current characteristics of the waste was chosen. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Congenital toxoplasmosis in humans: an update of worldwide rate of congenital infections

Abstract The morbidity due to congenital toxoplasmosis in humans is very high. Most of these infected children are likely to develop symptoms of clinical toxoplasmosis. Sequelae in fetus resulting from Toxoplasma gondii infections in women who become infected with this parasite during pregnancy can be devastating and enormous efforts are directed in some countries to prevent these consequences. Here, an update on congenital toxoplasmosis in humans, especially the rate of congenital infections in humans worldwide, is provided. Although several countries have surveillance programmes, most information on the rate of congenital transmission is from France and Brazil. Because of compulsory national screening programme in France to detect and treat women with recently acquired T. gondii infection with anti-toxoplasma therapy, the rate of congenital transmission and the severity of disease in children are declining. Infections by this parasite are widely prevalent in Brazil. The severity of clinical toxoplasmosis in Brazilian children is very high and may be associated with the genetic characteristics of T. gondii isolates prevailing in animals and humans in Brazil. Virtually little or no information is available on this topic from China, India and other countries in Asia.

Parasitology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Kelvin Waves during GOAmazon and Their Relationship to Deep Convection

The 2014–15 Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) field campaign over the central Amazon near Manaus, Brazil, occurred in coordination with the larger Cloud Processes of the Main Precipitation Systems in Brazil: A Contribution to Cloud-Resolving Modeling and to the Global Precipitation Measurement (CHUVA) project across Brazil. These programs provide observations of convection over the central Amazon on diurnal to annual time scales. Here, we address the question of how Kelvin waves, observed in satellite observations of deep cloud cover over the GOAmazon region during the 2014–15 time period, modulate the growth, type, and organization of convection over the central Amazon. The answer to this question has implications for improved predictability of organized systems over the region and representation of convection and its growth on local to synoptic scales in global models. Our results demonstrate that Kelvin waves are strong modulators of synoptic-scale low- to midlevel free-tropospheric moisture, integrated moisture convergence, and surface heat fluxes. These regional modifications of the environment impact the local diurnal cycle of convection, favoring the development of mesoscale convective systems. As a result, localized rainfall is also strongly modulated, with the majority of rainfall in the GOAmazon region occurring during the passage of these systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projected End-of-Century Changes in the South American Monsoon in the CESM Large Ensemble

Projected changes in the South American monsoon system by the end of the twenty-first century are analyzed using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LENS). The wet season is shorter in LENS when compared to observations, with the mean onset occurring 19 days later and the mean retreat date 21 days earlier in the season. Despite a precipitation bias, the seasonality of rainfall over South America is reproduced in LENS, as well as the main circulation features associated with the development of the South American monsoon. Both the onset and retreat of the wet season over South America are delayed in the future compared to current climate by 3 and 7 days, respectively, with a slightly longer wet season. Central and southeastern Brazil are projected to get wetter as a result of moisture convergence from the strengthening of the South Atlantic low-level jet and a weaker South Atlantic subtropical high. The Amazon is projected to get drier by the end of the century, negatively affecting rain forest productivity. During the wet season, an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is found over most of South America, and especially over northeastern and southern Brazil and La Plata. Meanwhile, during the dry season an increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days is found over northeastern Brazil and the northern Amazon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Land-use harmonization datasets for annual global carbon budgets

Abstract. Land-use change has been the dominant source of anthropogenic carbon emissions for most of the historical period and is currently one of the largest and most uncertain components of the global carbon cycle. Advancing the scientific understanding on this topic requires that the best data be used as input to state-of-the-art models in well-organized scientific assessments. The Land-Use Harmonization 2 dataset (LUH2), previously developed and used as input for simulations of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), has been updated annually to provide required input to land models in the annual Global Carbon Budget (GCB) assessments. Here we discuss the methodology for producing these annual LUH2-GCB updates and extensions which incorporate annual wood harvest data updates from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations for dataset years after 2015 and the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) gridded cropland and grazing area data updates (based on annual FAO cropland and grazing area data updates) for dataset years after 2012, along with extrapolations to the current year due to a lag of 1 or more years in the FAO data releases. The resulting updated LUH2-GCB datasets have provided global, annual gridded land-use and land-use-change data relating to agricultural expansion, deforestation, wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, regrowth and afforestation, crop rotations, and pasture management and are used by both bookkeeping models and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) for the GCB. For GCB 2019, a more significant update to LUH2 was produced, LUH2-GCB2019 (https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1851, Chini et al., 2020b), to take advantage of new data inputs that corrected cropland and grazing areas in the globally important region of Brazil as far back as 1950. From 1951 to 2012 the LUH2-GCB2019 dataset begins to diverge from the version of LUH2 used for the World Climate Research Programme's CMIP6, with peak differences in Brazil in the year 2000 for grazing land (difference of 100 000 km2) and in the year 2009 for cropland (difference of 77 000 km2), along with significant sub-national reorganization of agricultural land-use patterns within Brazil. The LUH2-GCB2019 dataset provides the base for future LUH2-GCB updates, including the recent LUH2-GCB2020 dataset, and presents a starting point for operationalizing the creation of these datasets to reduce time lags due to the multiple input dataset and model latencies.

Chini, Louise (ORCID:0000000290703505)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1976

Twilight helium 10,830-A calculations and observations

The 10,830-A column emission rates from metastable He(2 3S) atoms in the upper atmosphere are calculated and compared with other calculations and observations. It is shown that the calculated emission rates agree well with the observed emission rates provided that the cross sections for loss of He(2 3S) by Penning ionization on atomic oxygen is near 5 A 2 and not 44 A 2 as previously measured. It is assumed that the local and conjugate photoelectron fluxes above 300 km are about double those calculated. The dawn/dusk intensity ratio observed in New Mexico, Brazil and Peru is accounted for by changes in the ambient thermal electron concentration in Brazil and Peru and by changes in plasmasphere opacity to conjugate point electrons for New Mexico and to some extent for Brazil. The rate at which He-4 would escape from the earth if sufficient energy were imparted to the He-4 atoms during the Penning reaction was recalculated and found to be inadequate by an order of magnitude to balance the terrestrial production.

Tinsley, B. A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

CITE 3 meteorological highlights

Meteorological highlights from the third NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment Chemical Instrumentation Test and Evaluation (GTE/CITE 3) are presented. During August and September 1989, research flights were conducted from Wallops Island, Virginia, and Natal, Brazil, and included airborne sampling of air masses over adjacent regions of the Atlantic Ocean. Isentropic backward trajectory calculations, wind vector/streamline fields, rawinsonde data, and GOES and METEOSAT satellite imagery are utilized to examine the meteorological conditions for each flight and to determine the transport paths of the sampled air masses. Some aspects of the chemical signatures of the sampled air are also discussed. During the series of flights based at Wallops Island, Virginia, the flow into the experiment area was governed primarily by the position of the North Atlantic subtropical anticyclone. The large-scale tropospheric circulation switched from primarily a marine flow during flights 1-4, to a predominantly offshore mid-latitude continental flow during flights 5-10. During these later flights, the regional influences of large eastern U.S. cities along with vertical mixing by typical summertime convective activity strongly influenced the chemical characteristics of the sampled air. During the series of flights based at Natal, Brazil, the dominant synoptic feature was the South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone which generally transported air across the tropical Atlantic toward eastern Brazil. Pronounced subsidence and a well-defined trade wind inversion often characterized the lower and middle troposphere over the Natal region. Some high-altitude recirculation of air from South America was observed, as was cross-equatorial transport which had come from northern Africa. Biomass burning plumes were observed on segments of all of the flights, the source region being the central and southern savannah regions of Africa.

Shipham, Mark C.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Recent Biomass Burning in the Tropics and Related Changes in Tropospheric Ozone

Biomass burning is an important source of chemical precursors of tropospheric ozone. In the tropics, biomass burning produces ozone enhancements over broad regions of Indonesia, Africa, and South America including Brazil. Fires are intentionally set in these regions during the dry season each year to clear cropland and to clear land for human/industrial expansion. In Indonesia enhanced burning occurs during dry El Nino conditions such as in 1997 and 2006. These burning activities cause enhancement in atmospheric particulates and trace gases which are harmful to human health. Measurements from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) from October 2004-November 2008 are used to evaluate the effects of biomass burning on tropical tropospheric ozone. These measurements show sizeable decreases approx.15-20% in ozone in Brazil during 2008 compared to 2007 which we attribute to the reduction in biomass burning. Three broad biomass burning regions in the tropics (South America including Brazil, western Africa, and Indonesia) were analyzed in the context of OMI/MLS measurements and the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical transport model developed at Goddard Space Flight Center. The results indicate that the impact of biomass burning on ozone is significant within and near the burning regions with increases of approx.10-25% in tropospheric column ozone relative to average background concentrations. The model suggests that about half of the increases in ozone from these burning events come from altitudes below 3 km. Globally the model indicates increases of approx.4-5% in ozone, approx.7-9% in NO, (NO+NO2), and approx.30-40% in CO.

Ziemke↗
NASA NTRS2017

Forest Carbon Emissions from Cropland Expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado Biome

Land use, land use change, and forestry accounted for two-thirds of Brazil's greenhouse gas emissions profile in 2005. Amazon deforestation has declined by more than 80% over the past decade, yet Brazil's forests extend beyond the Amazon biome. Rapid expansion of cropland in the neighboring Cerrado biome has the potential to undermine climate mitigation efforts if emissions from dry forest and woodland conversion negate some of the benefits of avoided Amazon deforestation. Here, we used satellite data on cropland expansion, forest cover, and vegetation carbon stocks to estimate annual gross forest carbon emissions from cropland expansion in the Cerrado biome. Nearly half of the Cerrado met Brazil's definition of forest cover in 2000 (greater than or equal to 0.5 ha with greater than or equal to 10% canopy cover). In areas of established crop production, conversion of both forest and non-forest Cerrado formations for cropland declined during 2003-2013. However, forest carbon emissions from cropland expansion increased over the past decade in Matopiba, a new frontier of agricultural production that includes portions of Maranhao, Tocantins, Piau­, and Bahia states. Gross carbon emissions from cropland expansion in the Cerrado averaged 16.28 Tg C yr (exp -1) between 2003 and 2013, with forest-to-cropland conversion accounting for 29% of emissions. The fraction of forest carbon emissions from Matopiba was much higher; between 2010-2013, large-scale cropland conversion in Matopiba contributed 45% of total Cerrado forest carbon emissions. Carbon emissions from Cerrado-tocropland transitions offset 5-7% of the avoided emissions from reduced Amazon deforestation rates during 2011-2013. Comprehensive national estimates of forest carbon fluxes, including all biomes, are critical to detect cross-biome leakage within countries and achieve climate mitigation targets to reduce emissions from land use, land use change, and forestry.

remote sensing↗