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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Capturing many-body correlation effects with quantum and classical computing

Theoretical descriptions of excited states of molecular systems in high-energy regimes are crucial for supporting and driving many experimental efforts at light source facilities. However, capturing their complicated correlation effects requires formalisms that provide a hierarchical infrastructure of approximations. These approximations lead to an increased overhead in classical computing methods and, therefore, decisions regarding the ranking of approximations and the quality of results must be made on purely numerical grounds. The emergence of quantum computing methods has the potential to change this situation. Here, in this study, we demonstrate the efficiency of the quantum phase estimator (QPE) in identifying core-level states relevant to x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. We compare and validate the QPE predictions with exact diagonalization and real-time equation-of-motion coupled-cluster formulations, which are some of the most accurate methods for states dominated by collective correlation effects.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Interpreting machine learning prediction of fire emissions and comparison with FireMIP process-based models

Annual burned areas in the United States have increased 2-fold during the past decades. With more large fires resulting in more emissions of fine particulate matter, an accurate prediction of fire emissions is critical for quantifying the impacts of fires on air quality, human health, and climate. This study aims to construct a machine learning (ML) model with game-theory interpretation to predict monthly fire emissions over the contiguous US (CONUS) and to understand the controlling factors of fire emissions. The optimized ML model is used to diagnose the process-based models in the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) to inform future development. Results show promising performance for the ML model, Community Land Model (CLM), and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator-Interactive Fire And Emission Algorithm For Natural Environments (JULES-INFERNO) in reproducing the spatial distributions, seasonality, and interannual variability of fire emissions over the CONUS. Regional analysis shows that only the ML model and CLM simulate the realistic interannual variability of fire emissions for most of the subregions (r >0.95 for ML and r =0.14~0.70 for CLM), except for Mediterranean California, where all the models perform poorly (r =0.74 for ML and r <0.30 for the FireMIP models). Regarding seasonality, most models capture the peak emission in July over the western US. However, all models except for the ML model fail to reproduce the bimodal peaks in July and October over Mediterranean California, which may be explained by the smaller wind speeds of the atmospheric forcing data during Santa Ana wind events and limitations in model parameterizations for capturing the effects of Santa Ana winds on fire activity. Furthermore, most models struggle to capture the spring peak in emissions in the southeastern US, probably due to underrepresentation of human effects and the influences of winter dryness on fires in the models. As for extreme events, both the ML model and CLM successfully reproduce the frequency map of extreme emission occurrence but overestimate the number of months with extremely large fire emissions. Comparing the fire PM 2.5 emissions from the ML model with process-based fire models highlights their strengths and uncertainties for regional analysis and prediction and provides useful insights into future directions for model improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling and Optimization Methods for Controlling and Sizing Grid-connected Energy Storage: A Review

Purpose of Review Energy storage is capable of providing a variety of services and solving a multitude of issues in today's rapidly evolving electric power grid. This paper reviews recent research on modeling and optimization methods for optimally controlling and sizing grid-connected battery energy storage systems (BESSs). Open issues and promising research directions are discussed. Recent Findings Recent studies on BESS dispatch, evaluation, and sizing focus on advanced modeling and optimization methods to maximize stacked value streams from multiple services. BESS models have been improved to better represent operational characteristics or capture degradation effects. Different solution methods and optimization techniques have been proposed to improve the benefits and cost-effectiveness of BESSs, using deterministic approaches prevalently but with impressive progress in capturing and addressing uncertainties. Summary Recent progress in BESS scheduling and sizing better supports planning and operational decision-making in different use cases, which is highly important to advance the deployment of BESSs. Additional research is required to properly model the trade-off between short-term benefits and service life with multiple degradation effects explicitly considered in the decision-making process. Advanced methods are to be developed for effectively determining optimal BESS sizes that maximize overall benefits within a varying lifetime considering diversified system, conditions as well as uncertainties at planning and operational stages.

Wu, Di↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing CO 2 -Loaded Aqueous Amine Solutions for Higher Electrocatalytic CO 2 Reduction Activity

The activity of aqueous-based carbon dioxide reduction (CO 2 R) reactions is often limited by the solubility of CO 2 . The addition of amines can increase the total dissolved carbon in water through the formation of bicarbonate and carbamate species, which has been used to a great effect to capture CO 2 from dilute streams. Here, in this study, we explore the effect of 12 primary and secondary amines of varying Brønsted basicity, steric profile, and hydrogen-bonding capabilities on the aqueous CO 2 R to CO activity of a molecular Ni(cyclam)Cl 2 catalyst with a Hg electrode. Addition of some of the amines results in greater activity and selectivity for CO production compared to equivalent aqueous solutions without added amines. Under optimal conditions (0.4 M 3-amino-propionitrile), there is an over sevenfold increase in partial current density and greater selectivity for CO compared to equivalent conditions with no amine. Interestingly, the increase in activity did not correlate to any single property across the 12 amines. To elucidate the effect of the amine additives on catalysis, we used vapor–liquid equilibrium modeling (VLE), 13 C NMR spectroscopy, and computational analysis to determine the carbon speciation of the solutions. These results indicate that for amines without ethylalcohol functionalities, CO 2 R activity correlates with carbamate concentration, which is in turn governed by amine basicity and steric effects. However, this correlation does not persist for amines with ethylalcohol functionalities, which can form more stable carbamates through intramolecular-hydrogen bonding. These studies demonstrate that amine additives can enhance aqueous CO 2 R activity and selectivity and describe amine properties that lead to these higher performance metrics.

Amines↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulated meteorological impacts of offshore wind turbines and sensitivity to the amount of added turbulence kinetic energy

Offshore wind energy projects are currently in development off the east coast of the United States and may influence the local meteorology of the region. Wind power production and other commercial uses in this area are related to atmospheric conditions, and so it is important to understand how future wind plants may change the local meteorology. In the absence of measurements of potential wind plant impacts on meteorology, simulations offer the next-best possible insight into wake effects on boundary layer height, temperature, fluxes, and wind speeds. However, simulation tools that capture these effects offer multiple options for representing the amount of turbine-added turbulence that may impact assessments of micrometeorological effects. To explore this sensitivity, we compare 1 year of simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with and without wind plants incorporated, focusing on the lease area south of Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The simulations with wind plants are repeated to include both the maximum and minimum amounts of added turbulence to provide bounds on the potential impacts. We assess changes in wind speeds, 2 m temperature, surface heat flux, turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), and boundary layer height during different stability classifications and ambient wind speeds over the entire year and compare results for the degree of added turbulence in the wind plant simulations. Because the wake behavior may be a function of boundary layer stability, in this paper, we also present a machine learning algorithm to quantify the area and distance of the wake generated by the wind plant. This analysis enables us to identify the relationship between wake extent and boundary layer height. We find that hub-height wind speed is reduced within and downwind of the wind plant, with the strongest impacts occurring during stable conditions and faster wind speeds in region 3 of the turbine power curve, although impacts lessen as wind speeds increase past 15 m s−1. In contrast, wind speeds near the surface decrease when no turbine-added turbulence is included but can increase for stably stratified conditions when 100 % of possible TKE is included in the simulations. TKE increases at hub height in the simulations with added TKE for all stability classes, suggesting that atmospheric stability does not immediately modify the TKE generated by turbines. Negligible changes in hub-height TKE manifest in the simulations without the added TKE. At the surface, TKE increases in the simulations with maximum added turbulence only for unstable conditions. In the no-added-turbulence simulations, surface TKE decreases slightly in neutral and unstable simulations. Differences in 2 m temperatures and surface heat fluxes are small but vary considerably with atmospheric stability and the amount of added TKE. Boundary layer heights increase within the wind plant when turbine-added turbulence is included and decrease slightly downwind during stable conditions. In contrast, with no added turbulence, the boundary layer height is in general reduced in stable conditions with wind speeds less than 15 m s −1 and slightly increased in neutral conditions. Finally, shallower upwind boundary layer heights tend to correlate with larger wake areas and distances, though other factors likely also play a role in determining the extent of the wind plant wake. These simulation-based results provide a bound for micrometeorological impacts of wind plant wakes: simulations that couple the atmosphere to the ocean may reduce these impacts, and we await observational verification.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effective direct steam regeneration of bis-iminoguanidine solid sorbent used for carbon dioxide capture

A cost-effective, energy-efficient sorbent regeneration process for phase-changing guanidines used for CO 2 capture was developed based on direct-steam stripping. This approach enhances the regeneration rate, simplifies the overall CO 2 capture process, and reduces the energy cost compared to conventional conductive thermal regeneration. A direct-steam sorbent regeneration reactor was developed, demonstrating that aqueous bis(iminoguanidines) (BIG) sorbents, e.g., methylglyoxal-bis(iminoguanidine) (MGBIG) and glyoxal-bis(iminoguanidine) (GBIG), could be efficiently regenerated with up to ~ 99 % CO 2 recovery through direct-steam stripping. Using low-temperature steam at 100 °C, a 4.5 times faster regeneration rate for GBIG carbonate sorbent (e.g., 30 min for 10 g) was demonstrated compared to conductive-heating (e.g., 135 min for 10 g) at 130 °C. Additionally, fully regenerated MGBIG converts into an aqueous MGBIG solution when the steam condenses onto the sorbent surface. Condensed steam with the guanidine can be easily recycled as an aqueous solution into the gas–liquid contactor to achieve a continuous-flow CO 2 -capture process. Molecular dynamics simulation was employed to provide a better understanding of the process. Higher heat transfer rates from steam to guanidine carbonate, compared to air heating, were attributed to the vibration resonance of water molecules within MGBIG with that of vapor molecules and the effective transfer of kinetic energy from vapor to solid. Technoeconomic analysis demonstrated that direct-steam stripping significantly decreases the CO 2 capture cost by 50 % compared to traditional conductive heating methods. Further, enhanced mass transfer facilitated by low-temperature steam and subsequent condensation effectively heats up the H 2 O-containing BIG-carbonate crystals, facilitating the desorption of CO 2 from the solid crystals, thereby leading to fast, effective, and energy-efficient sorbent regeneration.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Thermo‐Flow‐Mechanics‐Fracture Model Coupling a Phase‐Field Interface Approach and Thermo‐Fluid‐Structure Interaction

This work proposes a novel approach for coupling non-isothermal fluid dynamics with fracture mechanics to capture thermal effects within fluid-filled fractures accurately. This method addresses critical aspects of calculating fracture width in enhanced geothermal systems, where the temperature effects of fractures are crucial. The proposed algorithm features an iterative coupling between an interface-capturing phase-field fracture method and interface-tracking thermo-fluid-structure interaction using arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian coordinates. We use a phase-field approach to represent fractures and reconstruct the geometry to frame a thermo-fluid-structure interaction problem, resulting in pressure and temperature fields that drive fracture propagation. We developed a novel phase-field interface model accounting for thermal effects, enabling the coupling of quantities specific to the fluid-filled fracture with the phase-field model through the interface between the fracture and the intact solid domain. We provide several numerical examples to demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed algorithm. In particular, we analyze mesh convergence of our phase-field interface model, investigate the effects of temperature on crack width and volume in a static regime, and highlight the method's potential for modeling slowly propagating fractures.

fracture↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decision-making based on Markov decision process in integrated artificial reasoning framework—Part I: Theory

This paper presents a decision-making framework based on an integrated artificial reasoning framework and Markov decision process (MDP). The integrated artificial reasoning framework provides a physics-based approach that converts system information into state transition models, and the analysis result will be represented by the transition probabilities that can be used with an MDP to find a traceable and explainable optimal pathway. A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is well suited for representing the structure of an MDP. The causality information among process variables (or among subsystems) is mathematically represented in a DBN by the conditional probabilities of the node’s states provided different probabilities of the parent node’s states. To define node states in a physically understandable manner, we used multilevel flow modeling (MFM). An MFM follows the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws and supports the selection of process variables that represent the system of interest so that causal relations among process variables are properly captured. An MFM-based DBN supports developing state transition models in an MDP to capture the effect of process variables of system having physical relations. The operators of the target system can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from component degradation or random failures. We analyzed a simplified exemplary system to illustrate an optimal operational policy using the suggested approach.

Markov decision process↗
DOE OSTI2022

Carbon Dioxide Utilization Life Cycle Analysis Guidance for the U.S. DOE Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (Version 2.0)

Capturing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and placing it in permanent storage in geologic formations is an option for reducing CO 2 emissions, but it may not be a viable one for all CO 2 emitters. For some, the added cost of capture may be too high to implement, or the geology near the source may not be suitable for storage. In these circumstances, other options will be needed. Carbon use and reuse, or CO 2 utilization (CO2U), is an alternative approach that seeks beneficial uses for captured CO 2 , such as using it as a feedstock in the production of fuels, chemicals, and building materials. These uses would give CO 2 value that could be used by suppliers (emitters) to offset capture costs. One of the principal features and challenges associated with CO2U is that the products derived from CO 2 must have lower carbon footprints than their conventional counterparts. Previous assessments of CO2U alternatives have focused on the carbon content of utilization products as an indicator of CO 2 equivalent (CO 2 e) emissions reduction potential. However, embodied emissions are—at best—only weakly correlated with the amount of carbon contained in any physical product. Therefore, the most attractive CO2U options will both displace the carbon in an existing product and improve the overall carbon efficiency of the manufacturing process. Research to overcome barriers will include identifying existing co-feeds and available low-carbon energy sources to enable the conversion of CO 2 to value-added products under favorable processing conditions. New discoveries in the fields of nano- and bio-technology will be applied to efficiently utilize CO 2 in new applications. Development of advanced materials and processes, integrating CO 2 capture with utilization processes (e.g., algae), exploring a diverse slate of products from CO 2 to effectively offset capture costs and developing processes based on waste energy are means to overcome these barriers. The research will lead to the development of advanced catalysts, materials, and equipment that can be used to convert CO 2 into useful products. The result will be multiple flexible and adaptable technology platforms that can be used to produce suites of products spanning multiple utilization pathways.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Molten‐Salt‐Mediated Chemical Looping Oxidative Dehydrogenation of Ethane with In‐Situ Carbon Capture and Utilization

Abstract The molten‐salt‐mediated oxidative dehydrogenation (MM‐ODH) of ethane (C 2 H 6 ) via a chemical looping scheme represents an effective carbon capture and utilization (CCU) method for the valorization of ethane‐rich shale gas and concurrent mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Here, stepwise experimentation with Li 2 CO 3 ‐Na 2 CO 3 ‐K 2 CO 3 (LNK) ternary salts (i) assessed how each component of the LNK mixture impacted ethane MM‐ODH performance and (ii) explored physicochemical and thermodynamic mechanisms behind melt‐induced changes to ethylene (C 2 H 4 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) yields. Of fifteen screened LNK compositions, nine exhibited ethylene yields greater than 50 % at 800 °C while maintaining C 2 H 4 selectivities of 85 % or higher. LNK salts rich in Li 2 CO 3 content yielded more ethylene and CO on average than their counterparts, and net CO 2 capture per cycle reached a maximum of ~75 %. Extended MM‐ODH cycling also demonstrated long‐term stability of a high‐performing LNK medium. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations andab initiomolecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations suggested that the molten salt does not directly activate C 2 H 6 . Meanwhile, an empirical model informed by experimental data and reaction thermodynamics adequately predicted overall MM‐ODH performance from LNK composition and provided insights into the system′s primary drivers.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Degrees of Rate Control in Interconnected Reaction Networks

Overall reactions in interconnected networks exhibit net, forward, and reverse rates that are governed by both constitutive elementary steps in the pathway of interest and branching elementary steps that lead to alternative products. Accordingly, steps in branching pathways exhibit negative net, forward, and reverse degrees of rate control, as they reduce reaction flux to the desired product. We here contextualize the forward and reverse degrees of rate control in terms of kinetic resistances (inverse of rates) and leverage the additive nature of kinetic resistance to decouple kinetic driving forces contributed by constitutive elementary steps and branching points (nodal species) in interconnected networks. Regardless of the network connectivity, forward and reverse degrees of rate control are shown to converge at equilibrium. Away from equilibrium, we identify two critical features of interconnected networks: stoichiometric regularity─condition where all stoichiometric numbers are unity─and pathway symmetry around nodal species─condition where branching pathways share the same rate constants, stoichiometry, and species concentrations/activities─that result in (i) equal forward, reverse, and consequently net degrees of rate control and (ii) forward and reverse degrees of rate control that exhibit constant offsets, respectively, across all extents of reaction. Furthermore, our discourse further provides a mathematical description for the influence of stoichiometric irregularity and pathway asymmetry on forward and reverse degrees of rate control. Altogether, the presented work details the effects of network (inter)connectivity and stoichiometry on reaction kinetics and, in doing so, establishes general protocols for capturing these effects as additive terms in the formulation of forward and reverse degrees of rate control.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

New sterically hindered polyvinylamine-containing membranes for CO 2 capture from flue gas

Amine-containing facilitated transport membranes can have both high permeability and selectivity due to the reversible reaction between CO 2 and amino groups for effective carbon capture from flue gas. In this study, we have developed an improved method for the synthesis of high-molecular-weight sterically hindered polyvinylamine (PVAm) as the new fixed-site carrier in thin-film composite membranes for CO 2 capture. Commercially available PVAm was N-monomethylated into poly-N-methyl-N-vinylamine (PVAm-CH 3 ) using the stepwise reductive amination with a highly polar fluorinated alcohol as the solvent to enhance the equilibrium shift to the formation of the imine intermediate. The method prevented over-alkylation, resulting in the increased yield of the target product. PVAm-CH 3 exhibited excellent CO 2 facilitation with a CO 2 permeability of 445.7 Barrer (1 Barrer = 3.349 x 10 –16 mol m m –2 s –1 Pa –1 ) and a CO 2 /N 2 selectivity of 70.3, which are above the Robeson 2008 upper bound. The PVAm-CH 3 solution retained a sufficiently high viscosity after incorporating the aminoacid salt, 2-(1-piperazinyl)ethylamine sarcosinate (PZEA-Sar), as the mobile carrier for the membrane coating on nanoporous polyethersulfone (PES) substrates without any penetration issues. The resultant thin-film composite PVAm-CH3/PZEA-Sar membrane with a thickness of approximately 170 nm exhibited a superior CO 2 performance of 1071 GPU (1 GPU = 3.349 x 10 –10 mol m –2 s –1 Pa –1 ) and a CO 2 /N 2 selectivity of 183 at 57°C and a feed gas pressure of 111.64 kPa (1.5 psig). This PVAm-CH 3 /PZEA-Sar membrane surpassed the latest redefined 2019 CO 2 /N 2 upper bound and outperformed other polymer-based membranes. Density functional theory calculations also demonstrated that PVAm-CH 3 showed a stronger preference, relative to PVAm, toward the more efficient bicarbonate pathway. Thus, the steric hindrance effect of PVAm-CH 3 enhanced the solubility of CO 2 in the polymer matrix and resulted in the higher CO 2 permeance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sorption-enhanced steam reforming of toluene using multifunctional perovskite phase transition sorbents in a chemical looping scheme

Abstract Sorption-enhanced steam reforming (SESR) of toluene (SESRT) using catalytic CO 2 sorbents is a promising route to convert the aromatic tar byproducts formed in lignocellulosic biomass gasification into hydrogen (H 2 ) or H 2 -rich syngas. Commonly used sorbents such as CaO are effective in capturing CO 2 initially but are prone to lose their sorption capacity over repeated cycles due to sintering at high temperatures. Herein, we present a demonstration of SESRT using A- and B-site doped Sr 1− x A’ x Fe 1− y B’ y O 3− δ (A’ = Ba, Ca; B’ = Co) perovskites in a chemical looping scheme. We found that surface impregnation of 5–10 mol% Ni on the perovskite was effective in improving toluene conversion. However, upon cycling, the impregnated Ni tends to migrate into the bulk and lose activity. This prompted the adoption of a dual bed configuration using a pre-bed of NiO/ γ –Al 2 O 3 catalyst upstream of the sorbent. A comparison is made between isothermal operation and a more traditional temperature-swing mode, where for the latter, an average sorption capacity of ∼38% was witnessed over five SESR cycles with H 2 -rich product syngas evidenced by a ratio of H 2 : CO x > 4.0. XRD analysis of fresh and cycled samples of Sr 0.25 Ba 0.75 Fe 0.375 Co 0.625 O 3- δ reveal that this material is an effective phase transition sorbent—capable of cyclically capturing and releasing CO 2 without irreversible phase changes occurring.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Convolutional Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process and its Application to Wildfire Ignition Risk Quantification for Power Delivery Networks

To quantify wildfire ignition risks on power delivery networks, the current practice predominantly relies on the empirically calculated fire danger indices, which may not well capture the effects of dynamically changing environmental factors. This article proposes a spatio-temporal point process model, known as the Convolutional Non-homogeneous Poisson Process (cNHPP), and applies the model to quantify wildfire ignition risks for power delivery networks. The proposed model captures both the current (i.e., instantaneous) and cumulative (i.e., historical) effects of key environmental processes (i.e., covariates) on wildfire risks, as well as the spatio-temporal dependency among different segments of the power delivery network. The computation and interpretation of the intensity function are thoroughly investigated. We apply the proposed approach to estimate wildfire ignition risks on major transmission lines in California, using historical fire data, meteorological and vegetation data obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Here, a comprehensive comparison study is performed to show the applicability and predictive capability of the proposed approach.

Non-homogeneous Poisson Process↗
DOE OSTI2022

Many-body Green's function approaches to the doped Fröhlich solid: Exact solutions and anomalous mass enhancement

In polar semiconductors and insulators, the Fröhlich interaction between electrons and long-wavelength longitudinal optical phonons induces a many-body renormalization of the carrier effective masses and the appearance of characteristic phonon sidebands in the spectral function, commonly dubbed “polaron satellites.” The simplest model that captures these effects is the Fröhlich model, whereby electrons in a parabolic band interact with a dispersionless longitudinal optical phonon. The Fröhlich model has been employed in a number of seminal papers, from early perturbation-theory approaches to modern diagrammatic Monte Carlo calculations. One limitation of this model is that it focuses on undoped systems, thus ignoring carrier screening and Pauli blocking effects that are present in real experiments on doped samples. Here, to overcome this limitation, we extend the Fröhlich model to the case of doped systems, and we provide exact solutions for the electron spectral function, mass enhancement, and polaron satellites. We perform the analysis using two approaches, namely, Dyson’s equation with the Fan-Migdal self-energy, and the second-order cumulant expansion. We find that these two approaches provide qualitatively different results. In particular, Dyson’s approach yields better quasiparticle masses and worse satellites, while the cumulant approach provides better satellite structures, at the price of worse quasiparticle masses. Both approaches yield an anomalous enhancement of the electron effective mass at finite doping levels, which in turn leads to a breakdown of the quasiparticle picture in a significant portion of the phase diagram.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

PAH formation from jet stirred reactor pyrolysis of gasoline surrogates

Soot particles and their precursor polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) species, formed during combustion, are responsible for particulate emissions in gasoline direct injection (GDI) engines. To better understand the effects of fuel composition on formation of soot in GDI engines, the pyrolysis of several gasoline surrogates was studied in a jet-stirred reactor across a broad temperature range at atmospheric pressure and 1 s residence time. Fuel and intermediate species, including aromatics up to naphthalene, were measured using gas chromatography (GC). PAH concentrations from pyrolysis of surrogate fuels were compared to gain insight into the effects of fuel composition on PAH formation. In addition, synergistic effects were observed in pyrolysis experiments of binary blends. A detailed kinetic model, recently developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), successfully captured the effects of blending and the concentration of major PAHs. Major reaction pathways are discussed, as well as the role of important intermediate species, such as acetylene, and resonantly stabilized radicals such as allyl, propargyl, cyclopentadienyl, and benzyl in the formation of PAH.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving seasonal precipitation forecasts in the Western United States through statistical downscaling

Abstract Seasonal precipitation forecasts in the western United States are critical resources for water resource management, especially during winter. While current seasonal forecasting systems provide monthly precipitation forecasts operationally, their coarse resolution limits their effectiveness in capturing the localized precipitation patterns and snowpack conditions essential for water resource managers in the mountainous regions. Here, analog statistical downscaling is demonstrated as an effective approach to enhance the spatial resolution of operational seasonal forecasts provided by the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. Downscaling was performed by building an analog ‘library’, in which corresponding model forecasts and observed values during the training period were stored. In the testing period, unseen model forecasts referenced the closest historical forecast from the analog library and applied the corresponding observational value for each point. This analysis indicates that downscaled products can capture localized features more accurately than the original coarse resolution forecasts, reducing forecast error across the western United States. Moreover, downscaling individual ensemble members—rather than downscaling the ensemble mean—further reduces forecasting error for their multi-model ensemble mean products. The greatest error reductions in the downscaled product, measured by root mean squared error (RMSE), were observed at low to mid-elevations (500–2000 meters), with 50%–70% improvement relative to the original forecasts. In the higher elevations (2000 meters and above), changes in RMSE relative to the original forecast were limited to 10%–30% improvements. The improvement is more substantial for forecast systems with 10 ensemble members compared to that with 4 members, but this relationship does not hold for the system with 24 ensemble members. These findings show that analog statistical downscaling can effectively address the spatial limitations of seasonal precipitation forecasts with minimal computational cost, providing a valuable framework for enhancing coarse resolution forecasting products while providing insights into the timing of ensemble mean calculations during the downscaling process.

Vernon, B. (ORCID:0009000891670689)↗
DOE OSTI2024

CRADA Final Report: CRADA Number NFE-22-09330 with General Fusion

General Fusion is developing a magnetized target fusion (MTF) approach that involves compressing an initial magnetically confined plasma inside a cavity formed in liquid metal. This approach builds from concepts initially developed under the Linus program at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory and combines it with advances from compact toroid experiment (CTX) and sustained spheromak plasma experiment (SSPX) in compact toroid plasmas and coaxial Marshall gun systems. Modeling the tokamak during compression is central to designing a successful MTF device. The plasma is formed by coaxial helicity injection in the General Fusion device. Immediately after formation, the plasma has a diverted tokamak configuration with a single null. As the wall moves inwards, the plasma is repelled from the conducting surface and driven inwards by currents induced by its magnetic field in the liquid metal wall. As the liquid metal closes (or bridges) the opening of the coaxial plasma injector, the magnetic field topology alters to remove the null. Due to this, the plasma moves from a diverted to a wall-limited configuration. The liquid metal liner continues to close in and change shape, reducing in radius by a factor of ten at the peak of plasma compression. A model of the MTF plasma must be able to handle this continually varying geometry, and to be predictive, it must faithfully include the real imperfections arising in the process. In this project, we pursued a Monte Carlo approach to closures for MHD by computing kinetic electron trajectories in an MHD plasma background from simulations of GF devices. This requires enhancing the capabilities of the KORC-T code for running large ensembles of kinetic trajectories by porting it to GPU architectures and enabling workflows for large ensembles on OLCF machines. With these capabilities, it is possible to produce a large library of kinetic calculations of electron orbits evolving in plasma configurations spanning the magnetic configurations and plasma density profiles, including non-axisymmetry, arising in the General Fusion’s existing PI3 spherical tokamak device. Using ensembles will capture particles passing a single point in space in a given magnetic configuration, and the entire dataset will cover a range of global magnetic field geometries. By sampling around many starting points, this dataset will capture the spatial dependence of the plasma parameters. From this large dataset, it is possible to produce a reduced model for the kinetic effects not captured in MHD.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗