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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A multi-model assessment of global freshwater temperature and thermoelectric power supply under climate change

Water temperature is a key abiotic factor influencing aquatic ecosystem health and the services provided to both nature and humans. Global water temperature models offer possibilities to improve our understanding of water temperature regimes, which is increasingly important against the backdrop of climate change. Yet, existing studies have predominantly relied on a single model, which can lead to an incomplete representation of uncertainty and potential biases, in addition to limited insight into the range of possible future conditions, which ultimately reduces the robustness of climate impact assessments. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of surface freshwater temperature changes from various river and lake models for both past conditions and under future scenarios of climate change. Global models consistently simulate that surface water temperatures are currently 0.5 °C–0.8 °C higher than at the turn of the century (i.e. 1981–2000), and that warming will extend and intensify with future global change throughout the 21st century. While the strength of warming is highly sensitive to the different water temperature models, emissions scenarios and global climate models, our multi-model ensemble shows a global average annual water temperature rise of between +1.3 °C and +4.1 °C by the end of the century. To illustrate a potential societal impact of our results, we evaluate how future changes in discharge and water temperature may affect existing thermoelectric power plants, estimating average annual reductions of 1.5%–6% in global usable capacity by the end of the century. However, with river water temperatures projected to exhibit more pronounced seasonal patterns in the future—especially under the more extreme climate change scenarios and during summer months in the Northern Hemisphere—intra-annual reductions in usable capacity can be much more severe. Given the challenges associated with (large-scale) adaptation to control water temperature regimes, strong climate change mitigation is crucial for minimising water temperature rises and its associated negative impacts on humankind and ecosystems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impacts of climate change on estuarine stratification and implications for hypoxia within a shallow subtropical system

Vertical density stratification often plays an important role in the formation and expansion of coastal hypoxic zones through its effect on near-bed circulation and vertical oxygen flux. However, the impact of future climate change on estuarine circulation is widely unknown. Here, we developed and calibrated a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for Pensacola Bay, a shallow subtropical estuary in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Model simulations based on years 2013–2017 were applied to examine changes in salinity, temperature, and density under future climate scenarios, including increased radiative forcing (IR) and temperature (T), increased freshwater discharge (D), sea level rise (SLR), and wind intensification (W). Simulations showed that the impacts of climate change on modeled state variables varied over time with external forcing conditions. The model demonstrated the potential for sea level rise and increased freshwater discharge to episodically increase vertical density gradients in the Bay. However, increased wind forcing destabilized vertical gradients, at times reducing the spatial extent and duration of stable stratification. For time periods with low freshwater discharge, moderate increases in wind speed (10%) can destabilize density gradients strengthened by increased discharge (10%) and sea level rise (0.48 m). In contrast, destruction of strong density gradients that form near the mid-Bay channel following flood events requires stronger wind forcing. Furthermore, these results highlight the importance of considering natural variability in freshwater and wind forcing, as well as local phenomena that are generally unresolved by global climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Trees halve urban heat island effect globally but unequal benefits only modestly mitigate climate-change warming

Although tree cover reduces the urban heat island, no global estimate quantifies air temperature reductions by contemporary or future tree cover, currently and with climate change. Here, we estimate these reductions for all 8,919 large urban areas. Current urban tree cover mitigates 41–49% of the maximum potential air-temperature urban heat island that would occur in the absence of tree canopy. Tree canopy reduces summer air temperature by a population-weighted mean of 0.15 ± 0.03 °C, with wide variation (0.0–2.7 °C), benefiting 914 (805–1040, 95% CI) million people by >0.25 °C. Cooling benefits are greater in already cooler areas: high-income countries and suburbs. Current and plausible future tree cover mitigate only ~10% (6.7–18% and 6.3–17%, respectively) of the median mid-century climate-change warming under a moderate emission scenario. Our results suggest tree canopy expansion in densely settled low-income urban areas is necessary for equitable urban heat island mitigation and climate adaptation.

McDonald, Robert I. [The Nature Conservancy (TNC),↗
DOE OSTI2024

California’s 2023 snow deluge: Contextualizing an extreme snow year against future climate change

The increasing prevalence of low snow conditions in a warming climate has attracted substantial attention in recent years, but a focus exclusively on low snow leaves high snow years relatively underexplored. However, these large snow years are hydrologically and economically important in regions where snow is critical for water resources. Here, we introduce the term “snow deluge” and use anomalously high snowpack in California’s Sierra Nevada during the 2023 water year as a case study. Snow monitoring sites across the state had a median 41 y return interval for April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE). Similarly, a process-based snow model showed a 54 y return interval for statewide April 1 SWE (90% CI: 38 to 109 y). While snow droughts can result from either warm or dry conditions, snow deluges require both cool and wet conditions. Relative to the last century, cool-season temperature and precipitation during California’s 2023 snow deluge were both moderately anomalous, while temperature was highly anomalous relative to recent climatology. Downscaled climate models in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-370 scenario indicate that California snow deluges—which we define as the 20 y April 1 SWE event—are projected to decline with climate change (58% decline by late century), although less so than median snow years (73% decline by late century). This pattern occurs across the western United States. Changes to snow deluge, and discrepancies between snow deluge and median snow year changes, could impact water resources and ecosystems. Understanding these changes is therefore critical to appropriate climate adaptation.

Marshall, Adrienne M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

An agent-based approach to study the diffusion rate and the effect of policies on joint placement of photovoltaic panels and green roof under climate change uncertainty

As two of the highest trending green technologies, photovoltaic panels and green roofs are proven to be effective practices for energy generation and energy saving. The achievable impact from the widespread installation of such technologies is, however, not clearly established. This is mainly because the degree of this impact highly depends on the inherently uncertain environmental and climate factors, as well as the unknown adoption rates of these technologies, which in turn depend on different characteristics of decision makers and interactions among them. To that end, this study aims to investigate the diffusion rate of these green technologies under uncertainties caused by climate change, characteristics of adopters, and their interactions. An integrated framework is developed to capture the interplay between financial and attitudinal aspects, as well as the uncertainties due to both the stochastic nature of system parameters and the interactions among agents involving human beings. Specifically, this framework consists of a integer programming model to optimize the green roof and/or photovoltaic panel installation settings for a given building under climate change uncertainty, and an agent-based model to factor in the role of human behavior and interactions. A case study for the city of Knoxville, TN, is presented to evaluate the effects of different policies on the diffusion rate of the green technologies of interest. The results show that the affordability of green technologies and public awareness are the key drivers of the adoption of these technologies, which highlight the important role of the decision makers in impacting the diffusion rate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Wildfires on Solar Resource Availability in California in a Changing Climate

Wildfires can emit large amounts of atmospheric particulate matters and influence not only air quality but also availability of photovoltaic (PV) generation due to scattering and absorption of solar radiation. Under anthropogenic changing climate, wildfire activity is projected to increase over western North America due to drier and warmer climate, implying increasing impact on solar resource and larger uncertainty in solar generation especially in regions with faster PV penetration. This study focuses on quantifying the impact of wildfires on aerosol optical depth (AOD) and thus solar resource over California using National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This assessment includes historical analysis and estimation of solar resource under wildfire scenarios (2020 wildfire and an enhanced wildfire scenario based on 2020 wildfires). Historical analysis for the period of July-October 2019/2020 (low/high fire activity period) shows that the averaged global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are reduced by about 30 and 90 W m-2 (5.6 and 15.3%), respectively, during high fire activity period. To create AOD dataset for enhanced fire scenario, 165% increase in burn area (in around 2050) is selected based on comprehensive literature review, which is further applied to the Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) fire emission. WRF-Chem model with the enhanced FINN emissions is used to simulate and represent a preserving spatial distribution of burned areas and wildfire-emitted aerosols. Our initial analysis suggests that the"enhanced 2020 wildfire" AOD can increase by a factor of 1.3 - 2, which can significantly reduce solar irradiance and increase uncertainty in generation and reliability of power system in extreme wildfire events under a high solar penetration scenario. Overall, this study provides an estimate of the impacts of wildfires on solar resource to make informed decisions on reserve planning, generation scheduling, and reliability investments.

aerosol optical depth↗
DOE OSTI2022

CO 2 fertilization of crops offsets yield losses due to future surface ozone damage and climate change

Tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) is harmful to plant productivity and negatively impacts crop yields. O3 concentrations are projected to decrease globally in the optimistic Representative Concentration Pathway of 2.6 W m –2 (RCP2.6) but increase globally following the high-emission scenario under the RCP8.5, with substantial implications for global food security. The damaging effect of O 3 on future crop yield is affected by CO 2 fertilization and climate change, and their interactions for RCP scenarios have yet to be quantified. In this study, we used the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator modified to include crops (JULES-crop) to quantify the impacts, and relative importance of present-day and future O3, CO 2 concentration and meteorology on crop production at the regional scale until 2100 following RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We focus on eight major crop-producing regions that cover the production of wheat, soybean, maize, and rice. Our results show that CO 2 alone has the largest effect on regional yields, followed by climate and O 3 . However, the CO 2 fertilization effect is offset by the negative impact of tropospheric O 3 in regions with high O 3 concentrations, such as South Asia and China. Simulated crop yields in 2050 were compared with Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) statistics to investigate the differences between a socioeconomic and a biophysical process-based approach. Results showed that FAO estimates are closer to our JULES-crop RCP8.5 scenario. This study demonstrates that air pollution could be the biggest threat to future food production and highlights an urgent policy need to mitigate the threat of climate change and O 3 pollution on food security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Migrating Populus with climate change: Phenology, coppice management, cold spell susceptibility, leaf dynamics, and biomass production

Understanding the phenology and productivity of Populus species is crucial for effective management and conservation strategies amid climate change. We investigated leaf budbreak timing, susceptibility to cold damage, leaf dynamics, and biomass production of 168 Populus genotypes with diverse provenances in the southeastern United States. Our study revealed significant variation in budbreak timing across different taxa and years, with genotypes inheriting traits adapted to their parents’ local climates. Temperature emerged as a key factor triggering budbreak, while leaf development depended on other environmental cues such as photoperiod. Notably, budbreak occurred approximately 20 days earlier in 2023 compared to 2022 due to higher accumulated degree days (ADDs). Short-rotation-coppice (SRC) management delayed budbreak by five to ten days. Cold damage was significant in 2023, particularly for genotypes from northern provenances and those with P. maximowiczii parentage. Severe damage was also observed in eastern cottonwood ( Populus deltoides ​× ​ Populus deltoides (D ​× ​D)) genotypes, despite most having southeastern US parentages. Leaf dynamics, including leaf duration and leaf area index (LAI), varied across taxa and sites, with earlier budbreak correlating with extended growing seasons and increased LAI. Biomass production was intricately linked to phenological events, with earlier budbreak leading to increased biomass production and greater susceptibility to cold damage. Our findings highlight the importance of genetics, environment, and coppicing management in understanding and managing Populus phenology and biomass production. These insights provide valuable guidance for developing effective breeding, conservation, and management strategies for Populus species in the context of climate change.

Accumulated degree days (ADDs)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Wind Energy

Global wind resources greatly exceed current electricity demand and the levelized cost of energy from wind turbines has shown precipitous declines. Accordingly, the installed capacity of wind turbines grew at an annualized rate of about 14% during the last two decades and wind turbines now provide ~6–7% of the global electricity supply. This renewable electricity generation source is thus already playing a role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector. Here we document trends within the industry, examine projections of future installed capacity increases and compute the associated climate change mitigation potential at the global and regional levels. Key countries (the USA, UK and China) and regions (e.g., EU27) have developed ambitious plans to expand wind energy penetration as core aspects of their net-zero emissions strategies. The projected climate change mitigation from wind energy by 2100 ranges from 0.3–0.8 °C depending on the precise socio-economic pathway and wind energy expansion scenario followed. The rapid expansion of annual increments to wind energy installed capacity by approximately two times current rates can greatly delay the passing of the 2 °C warming threshold relative to pre-industrial levels. To achieve the required expansion of this cost-effective, low-carbon energy source, there is a need for electrification of the energy system and for expansion of manufacturing and installation capacity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating crystallographic and computational approaches to carbon-capture materials for the mitigation of climate change

Here, this article presents an overview of the current state of the art in the structure determination of microporous carbon-capture materials, as discussed at the recent NIST workshop “Integrating Crystallographic and Computational Approaches to Carbon-Capture Materials for the Mitigation of Climate Change”. The continual rise in anthropogenic CO 2 concentration and its effect on climate change call for the implementation of carbon capture technologies to reduce the CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere. Porous solids, including metal–organic frameworks (MOFs), are feasible candidates for gas capture and storage applications. However, determining the structure of these materials represents a significant obstacle in their development into advanced sorbents. The existing difficulties can be overcome by integrating crystallographic methods and theoretical modeling. The workshop gathered experimentalists and theorists from academia, government, and industry to review this field and identify approaches, including collaborative opportunities, required to develop tools for rapid determination of the structures of porous solid sorbents and the effect of structure on the carbon capture performance. We highlight the findings of that workshop, especially in the need for reference materials, standardized procedures and reporting of sorbent activation and adsorption measurements, standardized reporting of theoretical calculations, and round-robin structure determination.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Environmental trade-offs of direct air capture technologies in climate change mitigation toward 2100

Abstract Direct air capture (DAC) is critical for achieving stringent climate targets, yet the environmental implications of its large-scale deployment have not been evaluated in this context. Performing a prospective life cycle assessment for two promising technologies in a series of climate change mitigation scenarios, we find that electricity sector decarbonization and DAC technology improvements are both indispensable to avoid environmental problem-shifting. Decarbonizing the electricity sector improves the sequestration efficiency, but also increases the terrestrial ecotoxicity and metal depletion levels per tonne of CO 2 sequestered via DAC. These increases can be reduced by improvements in DAC material and energy use efficiencies. DAC exhibits regional environmental impact variations, highlighting the importance of smart siting related to energy system planning and integration. DAC deployment aids the achievement of long-term climate targets, its environmental and climate performance however depend on sectoral mitigation actions, and thus should not suggest a relaxation of sectoral decarbonization targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Case study on climate change effects and food security in Southeast Asia

Agriculture, a cornerstone of human civilization, faces rising challenges from climate change, resource limitations, and stagnating yields. Precise crop production forecasts are crucial for shaping trade policies, development strategies, and humanitarian initiatives. This study introduces a comprehensive machine learning framework designed to predict crop production. We leverage CMIP5 climate projections under a moderate carbon emission scenario to evaluate the future suitability of agricultural lands and incorporate climatic data, historical agricultural trends, and fertilizer usage to project yield changes. Our integrated approach forecasts significant regional variations in crop production across Southeast Asia by 2028, identifying potential cropland utilization. Specifically, the cropland area in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Viet Nam is projected to decline by more than 10% if no action is taken, and there is potential to mitigate that loss. Moreover, rice production is projected to decline by 19% in Viet Nam and 7% in Thailand, while the Philippines may see a 5% increase compared to 2021 levels. Our findings underscore the critical impacts of climate change and human activities on agricultural productivity, offering essential insights for policy-making and fostering international cooperation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improved scientific knowledge of methanogenesis and methanotrophy needed to slow climate change during the next 30 years

Owing to the high radiative forcing and short atmospheric residence time of methane, abatement of methane emissions offers a crucial opportunity for effective, rapid slowing of climate change. Here, we report on a colloquium jointly sponsored by the American Society for Microbiology and the American Geophysical Union, where 35 national and international experts from academia, the private sector, and government met to review understanding of the microbial processes of methanogenesis and methanotrophy. The colloquium addressed how advanced knowledge of the microbiology of methane production and consumption could inform waste management, including landfills and composts, and three areas of agricultural management: enteric emissions from ruminant livestock, manure management, and rice cultivation. Support for both basic and applied research in microbiology and its applications is urgently needed to accelerate the realization of the large potential for these near-term solutions to counteract climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-scale impacts of climate change on hydropower for long-term water-energy planning in the contiguous United States

Climate change impacts on watersheds can potentially exacerbate water scarcity issues where water serves multiple purposes including hydropower. The long-term management of water and energy resources is still mostly approached in a siloed manner at different basins or watersheds, failing to consider the potential impacts that may concurrently affect many regions at once. There is a need for a large-scale hydropower modeling framework that can examine climate impacts across adjoining river basins and balancing authorities (BAs) and provide a periodic assessment at regional to national scales. Expanding from our prior assessment only for the United States (US) federal hydropower plants, we enhance and extend two regional hydropower models to cover over 85% of the total hydropower nameplate capacity and present the first contiguous US-wide assessment of future hydropower production under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6’s high-end Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 emission scenario using an uncertainty-aware multi-model ensemble approach. We present regional hydropower projections, using both BA regions and US Hydrologic Subregions (HUC4s), to consistently inform the energy and water communities for two future periods—the near-term (2020–2039) and the mid-term (2040–2059) relative to a historical baseline period (1980–2019). We find that the median projected changes in annual hydropower generation are typically positive—approximately 5% in the near-term, and 10% in the mid-term. However, since the risk of regional droughts is also projected to increase, future planning cannot overly rely on the ensemble median, as the potential of severe hydropower reductions could be overlooked. The assessment offers an ensemble of future hydropower generation projections, providing regional utilities and power system operators with consistent data to develop drought scenarios, design long duration storage and evaluate energy infrastructure reliability under intensified inter-annual and seasonal variability.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Review of quantitative methods to assess impacts of changing climate and socioeconomic conditions on Arctic transportation systems

Rapid climate and socioeconomic changes are transforming Arctic human- Earth systems. An integral part of these systems is mobility, which encompasses the transport of humans and goods into, out of, and between Arctic regions. Impacts of climate and socioeconomic drivers on Arctic mobility are heterogenous. Methodologies are needed to quantify these impacts in measures that can be linked with broader socioeconomic systems. This article reviews existing such methods and organizes them into a conceptual framework to understand trends and gaps in the literature. We found methods quantifying impacts of a range of climate drivers on most transportation modes present in the Arctic, but few methods focused on socioeconomic drivers. Also underrepresented were methods explicitly considering adaptive capacity of transportation systems. In conclusion, we provide insight into the data and relationships relevant to understanding impacts of Arctic change on transportation systems and how these impacts fit into broader human- Earth systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate change increases carbon allocation to leaves in early leaf green-up

Global greening, characterized by an increase in leaf area index (LAI), implies an increase in foliar carbon (C). Whether this increase in foliar C under climate change is due to higher photosynthesis or to higher allocation of C to leaves remains unknown. Here, we explored the trends in foliar C accumulation and allocation during leaf green-up from 2000 to 2017 using satellite-derived LAI and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) across the Northern Hemisphere. The accumulation of foliar C accelerated in the early green-up period due to both increased photosynthesis and higher foliar C allocation driven by climate change. In the late stage of green-up, however, we detected decreasing trends in foliar C accumulation and foliar C allocation. Such stage-dependent trends in the accumulation and allocation of foliar C are not represented in current terrestrial biosphere models. Further, our results highlight that a better representation of C allocation should be incorporated into models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Capturing convection essential for projections of climate change in African dust emission

The summertime Sahara and Sahel are the world’s largest source of airborne mineral dust. Cold-pool outflows from moist convection (‘haboobs’) are a dominant source of summertime uplift but are essentially missing in global models, raising major questions on the reliability of climate projections of dust and dust impacts. Here we use convection-permitting simulations of pan-African climate change, which explicitly capture haboobs, to investigate whether this key limitation of global models affects projections. We show that explicit convection is key to capturing the observed summertime maximum of dust-generating winds, which is missed with parameterised convection. Despite this, future climate changes in dust-generating winds are more sensitive to the effects of explicit convection on the wider meteorology than they are to the haboobs themselves, with model differences in the change in dust-generating winds reaching 60% of current values. The results therefore show the importance of improving convection in climate models for dust projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment

The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ~560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH 4 . Current fluxes of CH 4 and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr –1 , respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO 2 – equivalent (CO 2 e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO 2 e by 2300 (45–590), with ~30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗