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At least 199 records · Page 11

Multi-fidelity Fourier neural operator for fast modeling of large-scale geological carbon storage

Deep learning-based surrogate models have been widely applied in geological carbon storage (GCS) problems to accelerate the prediction of reservoir pressure and CO2 plume migration. Large amounts of data from physics-based numerical simulators are required to train a model to accurately predict the complex physical behaviors associated with this process. In practice, the available training data are always limited in large-scale 3D problems due to the high computational cost. Therefore, we propose to use a multi-fidelity Fourier neural operator (FNO) to solve large-scale GCS problems with more affordable multi-fidelity training datasets. FNO has a desirable grid-invariant property, which simplifies the transfer learning procedure between datasets with different discretization. Here, we first test the model efficacy on a GCS reservoir model being discretized into 110 k grid cells. The multi-fidelity model can predict with accuracy comparable to a high-fidelity model trained with the same amount of high-fidelity data with 81% less data generation costs. We further test the generalizability of the multi-fidelity model on a same reservoir model with a finer discretization of 1 million grid cells. This case was made more challenging by employing high-fidelity and low-fidelity datasets generated by different geostatistical models and reservoir simulators. We observe that the multi-fidelity FNO model can predict pressure fields with reasonable accuracy even when the high-fidelity data are extremely limited. The findings of this study can help for better understanding of the transferability of multi-fidelity deep learning surrogate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Deposition, Diagenesis, and Sequence Stratigraphy of the Pennsylvanian Morrowan and Atokan Intervals at Farnsworth Unit

Farnsworth Field Unit (FWU), a mature oilfield currently undergoing CO2-enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in the northeastern Texas panhandle, is the study area for an extensive project undertaken by the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP). SWP is characterizing the field and monitoring and modeling injection and fluid flow processes with the intent of verifying storage of CO2 in a timeframe of 100–1000 years. Collection of a large set of data including logs, core, and 3D geophysical data has allowed us to build a detailed reservoir model that is well-grounded in observations from the field. This paper presents a geological description of the rocks comprising the reservoir that is a target for both oil production and CO2 storage, as well as the overlying units that make up the primary and secondary seals. Core descriptions and petrographic analyses were used to determine depositional setting, general lithofacies, and a diagenetic sequence for reservoir and caprock at FWU. The reservoir is in the Pennsylvanian-aged Morrow B sandstone, an incised valley fluvial deposit that is encased within marine shales. The Morrow B exhibits several lithofacies with distinct appearance as well as petrophysical characteristics. The lithofacies are typical of incised valley fluvial sequences and vary from a relatively coarse conglomerate base to an upper fine sandstone that grades into the overlying marine-dominated shales and mudstone/limestone cyclical sequences of the Thirteen Finger limestone. Observations ranging from field scale (seismic surveys, well logs) to microscopic (mercury porosimetry, petrographic microscopy, microprobe and isotope data) provide a rich set of data on which we have built our geological and reservoir models.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Southeast Regional CO 2 Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership (SECARB-USA): Risk Inventory for Commercial Storage Projects

The “Southeast Regional CO2 Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership” (SECARB USA) project supports the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Odice of Fossil Energy's (FE) mission to help the United States meet its need for secure, adordable, and environmentally sound fossil energy supplies by utilizing the advancements made since 2003 by the Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (RCSP) Initiative to continue to identify and address knowledge gaps. The SECARB-USA regional initiative encompasses the states of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and portions of Kentucky, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, and West Virginia as noted in Figure 1. The primary objective of the project is to identify and address regional onshore storage and transport challenges facing commercial deployment of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

FECM/NETL CO 2 Saline Storage Cost Model (2024): User’s Manual

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM), in collaboration with the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), has developed the FECM/NETL CO 2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM). This Excel-based tool provides a comprehensive framework for estimating the costs and breakeven prices associated with storing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in deep saline formations. Designed from the perspective of a CO 2 storage site owner, the CO2_S_COM incorporates four integrated modules—project management, financial analysis, activity cost estimation, and geological evaluation—to deliver fast, robust, and actionable insights for evaluating project finances. This is the user's manual for CO2_S_COM. The model may be accessed at this link: FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model CO2_S_COM 2024 (v4) - Submissions - EDX

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model CO2_S_COM 2024 (v4)

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM), in collaboration with the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), has developed the FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM). This Excel-based tool provides a comprehensive framework for estimating the costs and breakeven prices associated with storing carbon dioxide (CO2) in deep saline formations. Designed from the perspective of a CO2 storage site owner, the CO2_S_COM incorporates four integrated modules—project management, financial analysis, activity cost estimation, and geological evaluation—to deliver fast, robust and actionable insights for screening project finances.

CO2 storage↗

Wyoming CarbonSAFE: Advancing Commercialization of Low-Carbon Energy Technologies in Fossil-Rich Wyoming

Wyoming’s Powder River Basin (PRB) is the most prolific coal producer and exporter in the United States and the State of Wyoming’s largest oil-producing basin. In addition to being a leading energy producer, the PRB is the site of research programs whose aim is to develop and integrate low-carbon technologies into existing fossil fuel energy industries. Much of the PRB’s low-carbon research is focused around Dry Fork Station (DFS), which is the newest coal-fired power station in the western US. Currently, DFS hosts five carbon capture projects, including pilot-scale capture projects that utilize different capture technologies and a full front-end engineering and design (FEED) study, a commercial CO 2 pipeline for nearby CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery industry, and is also co-located with the Wyoming Integrated Test Center, which is a host facility for unconventional carbon utilization research (i.e. flue gas carbon-to-products innovations). DFS is also the host site for the Wyoming CarbonSAFE project. Wyoming CarbonSAFE, funded by the Department of Energy/National Energy Technology Laboratory, is a multi-phased program (currently in Phase II) whose core objective is developing and validating storage sites within a complex capable of storing 50 million metric tonnes of CO 2 over a 30 year project period using carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). This paper will provide an overview of the project to-date, showing that CarbonSAFE goals are achievable with respect to geologic, environmental, regulatory, CO 2 source and economic conditions, and why the State of Wyoming offers one of the more favorable environments to advance the commercialization studies. In 2019, the project team designed and completed a ~10,000 foot stratigraphic test well just south of DFS. From this well, the team collected over 600 feet of core, fluid samples from target injection zones, and a full petrophysical log suite. In addition, legacy 2D seismic lines were acquired and a 3D seismic survey was acquired in the fall of 2020. The objective of these field activities has been to identify and characterize target storage reservoirs and associated caprock. This complex has several reservoirs that could meet commercial injection goals, and over 4000 feet of associated caprock. Simulations of site performance suggest that stacked injection provides the most effective storage strategy, and would necessitate several sites within the greater complex to meet final project injection goals. Other work within this project includes the development of a business-case around proximal fields with CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery potential and existing tax credits, assessment of regulatory conditions, including pore space ownership and Class VI injection well permitting requirements, implementation of a robust public outreach Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3821220 GHGT-15 McLaughlin 2 program, and surface site characterization activities that have focused on environmental factors. In the PRB and at DFS, the State of Wyoming and other entities have made carbon management a priority of its future energy industry by providing a regulatory and business framework that is favorable to advancing these technologies. These endeavors will become more realistic with the successful implementation of Wyoming CarbonSAFE, and its ability to secure and validate commercial-scale CCUS at the center of Wyoming’s premier low-carbon research efforts.

McLaughlin, Fred↗

NRAP-open-IAM: A flexible open-source integrated-assessment-model for geologic carbon storage risk assessment and management

Large-scale implementation of geologic carbon storage (GCS) to help reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions requires stakeholder confidence that injected CO2 will remain contained and that potential subsurface environmental risks are acceptably small and manageable. The U.S. Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) has developed an open-source integrated assessment model (NRAP-Open-IAM) to help address questions about a potential GCS site’s ability to effectively contain injected CO 2 and protect groundwater and other overlying environmentally sensitive receptors. NRAP-Open-IAM allows a user to: (1) incorporate relevant site geologic and injection scenario data; (2) characterize important site features and events;(3) couple fast prediction models of various system components of the engineered geologic system; and (4) execute stochastic, dynamic simulation of whole GCS system performance, leakage risk assessment, and uncertainty quantification. NRAP-Open-IAM is available on GitLab (https://gitlab.com/NRAP/OpenIAM), and is accompanied by multiple application examples and detailed user and developer guides.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Defining Infrastructure Feasibility for Hub-Scale Offshore Atlantic Carbon Storage in the Northeastern United States

In the Northeast U.S., deep rock formations along the Atlantic outer continental shelf may have the potential to sequester 150–1136 million metric tons of CO2. However, the design and infrastructure necessary to develop offshore carbon storage in this region is not well defined because there has been little oil and gas exploration and no commercial production. Consequently, an infrastructure feasibility design was completed for a hub-scale offshore CO2 storage system along the Northeast U.S. Atlantic. The design included development of a detailed, site-specific geological model for a location near the Great Stone Dome geological structure in the Baltimore Canyon Trough off the coast of Delaware, Maryland, and New Jersey. A field injection system topology design was completed to portray a design with eight wells in two clusters connected by central manifolds. Reservoir simulations were completed for the injection system that showed the hub may be able to inject 17 million metric tons (MMT) of CO2 per year for thirty years, but injection rates varied substantially across the eight wells. A CO2 pipeline design determined feasible routes from the east coast shoreline to the injection field. Finally, the CO2 injection system design included subsea injection trees, manifolds, and power umbilicals. This is the first study to define large-scale carbon storage design and infrastructure options for the offshore Atlantic, which can help to progress this region towards field characterization and early-mover deployment for future decarbonization in the region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assessing reservoir performance for geologic carbon sequestration in offshore saline reservoirs

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a technological strategy to reduce CO 2 emissions from hydrocarbon-based energy production and non-energy industrial emitters, like fertilizer and cement production. To expand the geographic opportunities for CCS, offshore geologic settings are increasingly considered for saline CO 2 storage, particularly where legacy oil and gas infrastructure may be repurposed for CO 2 transport and injection. In this context, the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), United States (U.S.), may offer tremendous opportunity for CCS because the surrounding states are among the largest CO 2 producers in the U.S. and there has been extensive oil and gas development over the last half century. Nevertheless, there remains significant uncertainty in how GoM reservoir/seal systems will respond to industrial-scale CO 2 injections, particularly in the context of meso-scale (1–10s of meters) permeability variations that are difficult to identify prior to injection. Such permeability variations can have significant impacts on CO 2 migration and fluid pressure propagation, both of which govern the overall effectiveness of the CCS project. This research uses ensemble simulation methods to quantify the influence of spatially variable and a priori unknown permeability fields on CO 2 plume development and fluid pressure propagation when CO 2 is injected at 1 MMt per year for ten years. Results show a number of characteristic patterns that reveal the substantial influence of both near- and far-field permeability on reservoir performance. By focusing on basin characteristics that are common among offshore basins worldwide, results from this study suggest that offshore CCS may be a feasible carbon management strategy in regions where offshore basins are proximal to industrial CO 2 sources.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Regional Assessment for the CO2 Storage Potential in Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend

The goal of Task 1-11 was to perform an initial assessment of the geologic storage capacity and injectivity of the Northern Fairway of Michigan’s Niagaran Reef Trend. This task included a regional assessment and mapping effort to understand the variability in the reef geology, fluid content, and reservoir parameters across the trend consisting of several hundred reefs.

cross section↗

Southeast Regional CO 2 Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership (SECARB-USA): Regional Commercialization Plan (Final): Work Products 4.4.b (Regional Commercialization Plan) & 4.3 (Socioeconomic Impacts of CCUS and Workforce Readiness)

Commercialization of carbon capture and storage (CCS) within the SECARB-USA region is scaling up and will continue as governments and private companies expand on current decarbonization efforts. The Inflation Reduction Act (2022) enhanced 45Q tax credits beyond the 2018 Bipartisan Budget Act levels by incentivizing previously uneconomic projects to develop CCS plans and infrastructure. Additionally, the continued interest and support for CCS mitigates the relative risk of commercial-scale projects that are seeking long-term viability to develop capture facilities to accommodate their emissions reduction goals. This multifaceted Commercialization Plan provides an overview of the current status and potential for CCS in the Southeast and the pathways to achieve emissions reduction goals in the region by 2050. Specifically, the study addresses: • The current status of CCS activities in the SECARB region, • Assessment of buildout pathways for CCS projects and carbon transport infrastructure development opportunities, • Estimation of CCS job creation and economic impacts, and • The social justice considerations and public benefits associated with CCS activities in the SECARB-USA region.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multiwell Fiber Optic Sensing Reveals Effects of CO2 Flow on Triggered Seismicity

Induced seismicity is one of the main risks for gigaton-scale geological storage of carbon dioxide (⁠CO 2 ⁠). Thus, passive seismic monitoring is often recommended as a necessary component of the monitoring systems for CO 2 storage projects, with a particular forcus on risk mitigation. We present the first field study, CO2CRC Otway Project Stage 3 (Victoria, Australia), where distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) enabled high-precision tracking of the induced seismicity triggered by a small CO 2 injection and also informed the reservoir models. In 610 days of passive seismic monitoring of the Stage 3 injection, we detected 17 microseismic events (maximum moment magnitude Mw 0.1) using five deep boreholes equipped with enhanced-sensitivity optical fiber. The DAS array has sensitivity sufficient for detection and location of induced events with M w ~ ₋2 in a monitoring borehole located up to 1500 m away. Thanks to the dense spatial sampling by the DAS, we were able to estimate the focal mechanisms for events with M w > ₋1.5; although the monitoring boreholes provided very limited angular coverage. The main cluster of the events has the same location and source mechanism as the one triggered by the previous CO 2 injection at the Otway Project site, Stage 2C. Surprizingly, the Stage 2C and Stage 3 events closely followed the actual movement of the CO 2 saturation plume front (not the pressure front), as observed using controlled-source reflection seismic images. The nature of the plume-fault interaction remains unclear, but some alteration of the fault gouge by CO 2 might be responsible for the faults’ reactivation by the pressure perturbation. Importantly, the seismogenic fault could not be identified in the seismic images and was only revealed by DAS observations, which also demonstrated the signature of fluid–rock interaction, that may control the CO 2 flow.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Building an EPA Class VI Permit Application

Summary To accelerate the commercialization of carbon capture and storage (CCS), the US Department of Energy (US DOE) is building on decades of characterization efforts and pilot-scale projects through their CarbonSAFE program. Administered through their National Energy Technology Laboratory, this program seeks to bring fully integrated projects to the sector that can store more than 50 million tonnes of CO2 over a 30-year period. The program, which was enacted before the enhancement of Internal Revenue Code Section 45Q, is in the capture assessment, characterization, and permitting phase. The objectives of this paper are to discuss (a) the injection permitting requirements of the CarbonSAFE projects; (b) information gathering in support of the permit; (c) the timelines of field development and permit-related activities; (d) the major technical components of the field development plan; and (e) early feedback from the regulators toward acceptance of the permit. In Mississippi, more than 30,000 acres have been characterized by six deep characterization wells, a deep groundwater well, and 92 line miles of 2D seismic as part of the CarbonSAFE Project ECO2S. During the acquisition of seismic data, all receiver lines were live, which resulted in the generation of a pseudo-3D seismic design. The incorporation of a 3D seismic survey was not included as part of this project due to logistical difficulties presented by the undulating, wooded surface terrain. A suite of openhole geophysical logs was taken from each well, allowing for a detailed interpretation of prospective storage reservoirs and confining intervals to complement the analysis carried out on the 290 ft of a whole core that was cut through the prospective confining zone and storage reservoir. The detailed geologic and reservoir data were assembled and entered into a 3D model to assess the injection capacity and the area of review (AoR). This information fed into the detailed corrective action, monitoring, testing, and postinjection site care (PISC) modeling. The results have been exceptional. The geologic assessment has revealed three primary storage targets, ranging in depth from 3,500 ft to 6,000 ft. These storage reservoirs net 1,300 ft of sandstone, with mean porosity and permeability of 29% and 3.6 darcies, respectively. Together, these reservoirs have storage capacities that may exceed 20 million tonnes per square mile, making this a gigatonne prospect. Forward modeling of the project resulted in an AoR of 16 sq miles, injecting about 8000 t/d, for 30 years, via two deep injection wells. The excellent confining characteristics of the caprock, relatively simple geologic structure, and lack of historical well drilling activity in this area provide excellent containment of the injected CO2. Based on this work, the project has proposed 20 years of PISC. To date, only two US CO2 injection permits have been granted. These projects relied on a singular capture point feeding a singular sequestration point (source to sink), and considerations have not been made to garner CO2 emissions from other industrial sources. The Kemper County Storage Complex is a first-of-its-kind storage hub concept that looks to develop an area capable of storing significant quantities of CO2 from the region. Also, this work will show how characterization efforts, geological and numerical modeling efforts, and plan development were constructed in support of permit and incentives acceptance.

Energy & Fuels↗

A deep learning-based direct forecasting of CO 2 plume migration

Accurate and timely forecasts of CO 2 plume evolution in geological reservoirs are crucial for CO 2 migration detection, leakage risk assessment, and operation decision support. Conventional forecasting usually adopts a two-step strategy, first calibrating reservoir model parameters against observations using iterative inverse modeling (or history matching) and then applying the calibrated model for predictions. This method impedes real-time forecasts due to the heavy computational demand in inverse modeling and may suffer from poor prediction accuracy because of the limited observation data. In this work, we propose a deep learning-based latent space mapping framework to forecast CO 2 plume migration directly by avoiding the inverse modeling. We first use the convolutional autoencoder to map the high-dimensional complex plume extents onto low-dimensional latent space. Next, we use neural networks to learn the relationship between the observation variables and the prediction latent variables. And then for given observation data, we infer the prediction values directly. This one-step direct forecasting is computationally efficient which requires a few number of parallelizable reservoir simulations and it can provide accurate predictions with limited observations by learning the observation-prediction relationship in the reduced dimension. Therefore, our proposed method enables an in-time forecast of dynamic CO 2 plume distributions. In this work, we demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of our method in predicting the CO 2 plume migration using four metrics such as plume area, centroid movement distance, and plume spreading in the primary and secondary directions. And the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of plume migration under diverse geological complexities are also accurately quantified.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

FutureGen2 Petrel Project

This Petrel project features geomechanical models that takes advantage of existing modeling work from PNNL and expands upon its framework to included overlying and underlying geologic zones. Where available, geomechanical logs were incorporated into these models. While the existing CO2 storage interval and caprock (Mt. Simon Ss and Eau Claire Shale) were finely layered by PNNL, the overlying layers were more coarsely layered to limit cell count.

FutureGen2↗