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DOE OSTI2023

CPC data from TAMU TRACER campaign in the Houston, TX region from July to September 2022

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

CCN data from TAMU TRACER campaign in the Houston TX region from July to September 2022

During TRACER, the Texas A&M Rapid Onsite Atmospheric Measurements Van (ROAM-V) was deployed to capture airmasses behind (maritime) and ahead (continental) of the passage of the sea-breeze front through Houston. On select sampling days, ROAM-V sampled in the morning/mid-day on the coast and then transited to a second inland site for the afternoon/evening. The suite of instruments deployed on ROAM-V included a Condensation Particle Counter (CPC; GRIMM Model 5.403 CPC), Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS; TSI 3750 detector, TSI 3082 classifier, TSI 3088 neutralizer, TSI 3081A Differential Mobility Analyzer), Cloud Condensation Nuclei counter (Droplet Measurement Technologies CCN Counter), micro pulse lidar (Droplet Measurement Technologies Micro Pulse LiDAR (miniMPL)), and a Davis Rotating Uniform size-cut Monitor (DRUM; DRUMAir 4-DRUM). Before sampling at each location, the latitude and longitude were recorded using the GPS on the phone application “My Altitude”. Onboard the ROAM-V, aerosol samples are drawn through a shared isokinetic inlet at a flow rate ranging from 3.5 to 7.0 LPM. A portion of this flow is directed through a cyclone impactor (Brechtel, Inc. Model SCC 0.732) and 0.5 LPM is directed to the CCN. To calculate particle losses, we used a two-step method. First, the measured SMPS size distributions were used to calculate particle loss through the inlet during sampling. Second, the corrected SMPS data was used to calculate the average of the total losses per scan down the CCN line. Then, the correction was applied to the CCN data. This calculation was done separately for each deployment location due to changes in the measured size distributions between locations. Particle loss from diffusion (based on Kesten, 1991 and Gormley, 1949), inertial impaction in 90-degree bends (based on Aerosol Measurement, 2011 and Crane, 1977), and cyclone impactor efficiency (based on Dirgo, 1985) were included in the loss calculation. When the SMPS was not sampling at a location (in the case of an instrument malfunction or operator error), the reported CPC data was corrected with an average of the total losses for the entire campaign at the specified deployment location (e.g., if we needed to correct Galveston data, then the average of all calculated losses at Galveston was taken). These flatline corrections were used for all data on 22/07/13, 22/07/20, 22/07/22, and the data from Galveston on 22/08/09. The supersaturation uncertainty is estimated conservatively at +/- 0.03%, where variation in the inlet temperature, pressure, and calibration technique prevents a more accurate measurement. Confidence in the reported supersaturation measurements is based on a pre-campaign calibration (following the methods from our previous work and Deng, 2014 based on Rose, 2008) in addition to inter-comparisons with the DOE for two days (22/08/18 and 22/09/01) where TAMU was co-located with AMF1. The inter-comparisons show good agreement between our instrument and the DOEs instrument on both days at all supersaturations. After the last inter-comparison on 22/09/01, there was no indication of a malfunction by our instrument through the rest of the campaign. Unfortunately, the instrument was dropped during demobilization. A post-campaign calibration was conducted, which showed a substantial departure from the pre-campaign calibration. The drop may have damaged the instrument’s ability to produce the desired supersaturations. Therefore, we do consider the data after 22/09/01 to be correct, but it should be used with caution. The CCN counter sampled for 3 minutes at each supersaturation setpoint (0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0, and 1.2%). At the end of a cycle, the instrument was set to 0.01% supersaturation for 5 minutes. The data is comprised of the last 60 seconds of each supersaturation set point (0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0, and 1.2%) to ensure the instrument stabilized and was able to reach thermal equilibrium. We removed the data during the periods where there were operational difficulties, setup, or maintenance. This data was collected for ARM Field Campaign AFC07055 and supported by DOE ASR grant DE-SC0021047. For any further questions, please feel free to contact the instrument PI, Sarah D. Brooks, sbrooks@tamu.edu. Rose et. al. Calibration and Measurement Uncertainties of a Continuous-Flow Cloud Condensation Nuclei Counter (DMT-CCNC): CCN Activation of Ammonium Sulfate and Sodium Chloride Aerosol Particles in Theory and Experiment. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 1153-1179, 2008. Deng et. al. Using Raman Microspectroscopy to Determine Chemical Composition and Mixing State of Airborne Marine Aerosols over the Pacific Ocean. Aerosol Science and Technology, Vol 48, Issue 2, 2014. Kesten et. al. Calibration of a TSI Model 3025 Ultrafine Condensation Particle Counter. Aerosol Science and Technology, 15:2, 107-111, 1991. Gormley et. al. Diffusion from a Stream Flowing through a Cylindrical Tube. Proceedings of the Royal Irish Academy, Vol 52, 163-169, 1948. Aerosol Measurement: Principles, Techniques, and Applications, Third Edition. John Wiley & Sons, Inc, 2011. Crane et. al. Inertial Deposition of Particles in a Bent Pipe. Journal of Aerosol Science, Vol 8, 161-170, 1977. Dirgo et. al. Cyclone Collection Efficiency: Comparison of Experimental Results with Theoretical Predictions. Aerosol Science and Technology, 4:4, 401-415, 1985.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Machine Learning Bias Correction on Large–Scale Environment of High–Impact Weather Systems in E3SM Atmosphere Model

Large–scale dynamical and thermodynamical processes are common environmental drivers of high–impact weather systems causing extreme weather events. However, such large–scale environmental conditions often display systematic biases in climate simulations, posing challenges to evaluating high–impact weather systems and extreme weather events. In this paper, a machine learning (ML) approach was employed to bias correct the large–scale wind, temperature, and humidity simulated by the atmospheric component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) at ~1° resolution. The usefulness of the ML approach for extreme weather analysis was demonstrated with a focus on three high–impact weather systems, including tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and atmospheric rivers (ARs). We show that the ML model can effectively reduce climate bias in large–scale wind, temperature, and humidity while preserving their responses to imposed climate change perturbations. The bias correction is found to directly improve water vapor transport associated with ARs, and representations of thermodynamical flows associated with ETCs. When the bias–corrected large–scale winds are used to drive a synthetic TC track forecast model over the Atlantic basin, the resulting TC track density agrees better with that of the TC track model driven by observed winds. In addition, the ML model insignificantly interferes with the mean climate change signals of large–scale storm environments as well as the occurrence and intensity of three weather systems. This study suggests that the proposed ML approach can be used to improve the downscaling of extreme weather events by providing more realistic large–scale storm environments simulated by low–resolution climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of the Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclogenesis to Aerosol Intervention

Abstract As risks from tropical cyclones (TCs) are fueled by climate change escalation, there is an urgent need for transformational solutions to complement traditional approaches. Seeding TCs using aerosols can be a promising method to reduce cyclone intensity, supported by theoretical understanding of the microphysical effects of aerosols on TC clouds. The ideal time to intervene effectively in TCs is likely during their initial stage, before TC wind speeds reach their peak. However, studies exploring potential aerosol effects on TC formation remain scarce. This study investigates how a TC embryo responds to the addition of aerosols of varying sizes using the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a spectral‐bin microphysics model. We found that aerosols of different sizes and concentrations distinctively affect the pre‐TC vortex's microstructure and dynamics. Fine and ultrafine aerosols enhance the latent heat of condensation, freezing, deposition, and riming, initially intensifying the vortex. However, this results in enhancement of the cold pool, thereby reducing inflow and surface fluxes, subsequently weakening the vortex. Coarse aerosols produce the opposite effect to that of fine and ultrafine aerosols. Coarse aerosols lead to a slower initial acceleration owing to enhanced warm rain. However, the resulting weaker cold pool is insufficient to effectively reduce the strength of the vortex at the later stage. This study provides critical insights into how aerosols of varying sizes and concentrations modulate the energy cascade and impact the evolution of a TC embryo, laying the groundwork for further research on TC risk management through aerosol intervention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Synoptic-Scale Dynamics on Clouds and Radiation in High Southern Latitudes

High-latitudinal mixed-phase clouds significantly affect Earth's radiative balance. Observations of cloud and radiative properties from two field campaigns in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica were compared with two global climate model simulations. A cyclone compositing method was used to quantify “dynamics-cloud-radiation” relationships relative to the extratropical cyclone centers. Observations show larger asymmetry in cloud and radiative properties between western and eastern sectors at McMurdo compared with Macquarie Island. Most observed quantities at McMurdo are higher in the western (i.e., post-frontal) than the eastern (frontal) sector, including cloud fraction, liquid water path (LWP), net surface shortwave and longwave radiation (SW and LW), except for ice water path (IWP) being higher in the eastern sector. Here, the two models were found to overestimate cloud fraction and LWP at Macquarie Island but underestimate them at McMurdo Station. IWP is consistently underestimated at both locations, both sectors, and in all seasons. Biases of cloud fraction, LWP, and IWP are negatively correlated with SW biases and positively correlated with LW biases. The persistent negative IWP biases may have become one of the leading causes of radiative biases over the high southern latitudes, after correcting the underestimation of supercooled liquid water in the older model versions. By examining multi-scale factors from cloud microphysics to synoptic dynamics, this work will help increase the fidelity of climate simulations in this remote region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improving thermodynamic nudging in the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 2 (EAMv2): strategy and hindcast skills on weather systems

Nudging techniques are commonly employed to constrain atmospheric simulations toward observed states, facilitating model evaluation and sensitivity studies. However, if applied improperly – particularly to thermodynamic variables such as temperature and humidity – nudging can distort physical processes and introduce spurious biases, undermining the credibility of the simulations. This study presents an improved nudging implementation that applies vertically modulated tendencies to reduce adverse impacts on model physics. The framework is tested in version 2 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (EAMv2) using a suite of hindcast simulations nudged toward ERA5 reanalysis. We systematically evaluate the individual and combined effects of nudging wind, temperature, and humidity fields on the model's ability to represent large-scale atmospheric states and high-impact weather systems. Results show that the revised strategy – particularly when nudging temperature and humidity at selected levels – enhances hindcast skill by improving agreement with ERA5 without degrading the hydrological cycle or precipitation processes. Additional improvements in surface temperature, outgoing longwave radiation, and precipitation biases are achieved through targeted nudging of land-surface variables. The proposed approach strengthens the representation of large-scale conditions relevant to tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extratropical cyclones in the low-resolution EAMv2. These findings demonstrate that carefully designed thermodynamic nudging, especially of temperature and humidity, improves the realism of constrained simulations and broadens the utility of nudged EAMv2 for atmospheric modeling, machine learning, and high-impact weather research.

Atmospheric river↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multi-site Milling Strategy Reveals Significant Variation in Biomass Composition of Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) Grown at Ten Locations

Cell wall composition influences biomass use as a forage and as a feedstock for biofuel and chemical conversion. To examine the influence of environment on composition of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), we utilized a multi-environment experiment consisting of clones of switchgrass genotypes grown at up to ten locations in the continental US. We tested the influence of different milling treatments on biomass composition trait predictions via near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS). We found that most compositional trait predictions (29/34) were significantly different (P < 0.05) when a single lot of biomass was subjected to disparate milling treatments, i.e., knife milling vs. knife milling with an additional cyclone milling. Further, depending on the plant material tested, three to eight compositional trait predictions vary (P < 0.05) when identical biomass was knife milled at different sites followed by cyclone milling at a single site, including for traits such as Klason lignin, nitrogen, and carbon. In some cases, variation due to milling site exceeded environmentally induced compositional variation of a single switchgrass genotype grown at different sites. From these observations, we recommend a protocol with two sequential millings that decouples growth environment from a particular mill. Utilizing this approach, we found that 46/46 biomass composition traits from the warm season herbaceous forage and switchgrass bioethanol NIRS equations vary significantly (P < 0.001) in clones of a switchgrass genotype (WBC) grown at ten sites, with the growth site representing the largest average source of variation (41%). This multi-site milling approach can be used to examine environmental and gene-by-environment influences on composition with the goal of optimizing cell wall composition in different environments for biomass utilization.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Influence of Tibetan Plateau sensible heat on pre-monsoon dust burdens over South Asia: Observational and modeling evidence

Tibetan Plateau sensible heating (TPSH) effect is recognized as a key driver of the South Asian climate; however its role in regulating the regional dust burdens over South Asia during the pre-monsoon season remains unclear. Using long-term reanalysis and/or observational dust and TPSH data, we show that the dust optical depth at 550 nm (DOD 550 ) over South Asia is significantly positively correlated with TPSH at the interannual scale. DOD 550 over South Asia increases (decreases) by 20 % (12 %) in the strongest (weakest) TPSH years. The phenomenon of TPSH-dust relationships is reinforced by sensitivity experiments by altering TPSH from global climate models. Further mechanism analysis reveals that TPSH perturbation induces regional circulation anomalies over South Asia, which features a low-tropospheric cyclonic response around the Tibetan Plateau. This cyclonic anomaly strengthens the prevailing northwesterly winds, increasing regional dust emissions and transportation over South Asia. This novel mechanism helps understand the South Asian dust change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Long-range transported North American wildfire aerosols observed in marine boundary layer of eastern North Atlantic

Wildfire is a major source of biomass burning aerosols, which greatly impact Earth climate. Tree species in North America (NA) boreal forests can support high-intensity crown fires, resulting in elevated injection height and longer lifetime (on the order of months) of the wildfire aerosols. Given the long lifetime, the properties of aged NA wildfire aerosols are required to understand and quantify their effects on radiation and climate. Here we present comprehensive characterization of climatically relevant properties, including optical properties and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activities of aged NA wildfire aerosols, emitted from the record-breaking Canadian wildfires in August 2017. Despite the extreme injection height of ~12 km, some of the wildfire plumes descended into the marine boundary layer in the eastern North Atlantic over a period of ~2 weeks, owing to the dry intrusions behind mid-latitude cyclones. The aged wildfire aerosols have high single scattering albedos at 529 nm (ω 529 ; 0.92–0.95) while low absorption Ångström exponents (Å abs ) at 464 nm/648 nm (0.7–0.9). In comparison, Å abs of fresh/slightly aged ones are typically 1.4–3.5. This low Å abs 529 and low Å abs ~110 nm diameter) with thick non-absorbing coatings. The accelerated descent of the wildfire plume also led to strong increase of CCN concentration at the supersaturation levels representative of marine low clouds. The hygroscopicity parameter, κ CCN , of the aged wildfire aerosols varies from 0.2 to 0.4, substantially lower than that of background marine boundary layer aerosols. However, the high fraction of particles with large diameter (i.e., within accumulation size ranges, ~100–250 nm) compensates for the low values of κ, and as a result, the aged NA wildfire aerosols contribute more efficiently to CCN population. These results provide direct evidence that the long-range transported NA wildfires can strongly influence CCN concentration in remote marine boundary layer, therefore the radiative properties of marine low clouds. Given the expected increases of NA wildfire intensity and frequency and regular occurrence of dry intrusion following mid-latitude cyclones, the influence of NA wildfire aerosols on CCN and clouds in remote marine environment need to be further examined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Projected Changes to Cool‐Season Storm Tides in the 21st Century Along the Northeastern United States Coast

Abstract This study investigates changes and uncertainties to cool‐season (November‐March) storm tides along the U.S. northeast coast in the 21st century under the high RCP8.5 emission scenario compared to late 20th century. A high‐fidelity (50‐m coastal resolution) hydrodynamic storm tide model is forced with three dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCMs) over three decadal periods (historical, mid‐21st century, and late‐21st century) to project future changes in peak storm tide elevations at coastal counties in the region. While there is no absolute consensus on future changes to storm tides, for any one future decade two out of the three RCMs project an increase at counties along the Hudson River, Delaware River, and northern Chesapeake Bay due to more intense cyclones that track inland of these locations leading to favorable surge generating conditions. The same RCMs also project a decrease at counties facing the open ocean in the mid‐Atlantic Bight as cyclone densities just offshore of the coastline decrease, particularly by late‐century. The greater tidal range in northern areas of the region leads to uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of the projected changes to storm tide levels due to the arbitrary timing of the local tidal stage and the surge‐producing weather event. This random tide‐weather timing is less important in the Chesapeake Bay and unimportant in Albemarle Sound and Pamlico Sound. Similar to other recent studies, we highlight that sea level rise is likely to be more critical than storm climatology for future changes to the cool‐season coastal flooding potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessing Historical Variability of South Asian Monsoon Lows and Depressions With an Optimized Tracking Algorithm

Abstract Cyclonic low‐pressure systems (LPS) produce abundant rainfall in South Asia, where they are traditionally categorized as monsoon lows, monsoon depressions, and more intense cyclonic storms. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has tracked monsoon depressions for over a century, finding a large decline in their number in recent decades, but their methods have changed over time and do not include monsoon lows. This study presents a fast, objective algorithm for identifying monsoon LPS and uses it to assess interannual variability and trends in reanalyses. Variables and thresholds used in the algorithm are selected to best match a subjectively analyzed LPS data set while minimizing disagreement between four reanalyses in a training period. The stream function of 850 hPa horizontal wind is found to be optimal in this sense; it is less noisy than vorticity and represents the complete nondivergent wind, even when flow is not geostrophic. Using this algorithm, LPS statistics are computed for five reanalyses, and none show a detectable trend in monsoon depression counts since 1979. Both the Japanese 55‐year Reanalysis (JRA‐55) and the IMD data set show a step‐like reduction in depression counts when they began using geostationary satellite data, in 1979 and 1982, respectively; the 1958–2018 linear trend in JRA‐55, however, is smaller than in the IMD data set, and its error bar includes 0. There are more LPS in seasons with above‐average monsoon rainfall and in La Niña years, but few other large‐scale modes of interannual variability are found to modulate LPS counts, lifetimes, or track length consistently across reanalyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Seamless Projections of Global Storm Surge and Ocean Waves Under a Warming Climate

For coastal adaptation purposes, it is important to estimate the climate related changes in extreme sea levels due to storm surges and ocean waves, in addition to mean sea level rise. In this study, we provide the first consistent and continuous estimation of projected changes in global storm surges and ocean waves from the past to the warmer future, based on an extremely high resolution global climate model. The spatial pattern in the trend of annual maximum sea surface heights and wave heights is predominantly driven by changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency. In the western North Pacific, future TC frequencies are projected to decrease, and the annual maximum sea surface heights and wave heights show decreasing trends (-20 cm/century and -200 cm/century). Although highly intense tropical cyclones are enhanced in the warmer climate, highly extreme storm surges and wave heights do not necessarily increase due to the large natural variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Summer mean and extreme precipitation over the Mid-Atlantic region: climatological characteristics and contributions from different precipitation types

Based on a long-term observational dataset from the tracking of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), isolated deep convection (IDC), and tropical cyclones (TCs), we examine the climatological characteristics of summer mean and extreme precipitation during 2004 – 2017 and their respective contributions from MCS, IDC, TC, and non-convective (NC) systems and the local vs. remote influence of MCS and IDC over the MAR. On average, MCS, IDC, TC, and NC contribute 22%, 29%, 4%, and 45% to the total summer mean precipitation in the region. While MCS and TC precipitation primarily occurs in the coastal areas east of the Appalachian Mountains, IDC precipitation is more concentrated in the southern MAR and near the mountain windward slopes. Each summer, ~41 MCSs with an average lifetime of 19.6 hours influence the MAR, with 80% initiated outside and traveling on average 10 hours to the region. Around 13 MCSs initiated in the Great Plains and Midwest propagate across the Appalachian Mountains and contribute 20-40% to summer MCS precipitation in the central Mid-Atlantic coastal areas. In contrast, more than 2000 IDCs with an average lifetime of 2.0 hours influence the MAR each summer, and 77% are initiated locally. MCS, IDC, TC, and NC contribute 31% (30%), 26% (31%), 18% (7%), and 26% (32%) to the top 1% (5%) extreme daily precipitation, respectively. Considering extreme hourly precipitation, however, the IDC contributions increase to 41% (top 1%) and 38% (top 5%) due to the shorter duration of IDC events than the other precipitation types.

Li, Jianfeng↗

DOE OSTI2022

Southern Ocean Precipitation Characteristics Observed From CloudSat and Ground Instrumentation During the Macquarie Island Cloud & Radiation Experiment (MICRE): April 2016 to March 2017

A 1-year blended surface precipitation data set using Parsivel disdrometer, surface W-band radar, and tipping bucket measurements is produced for the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) and compared with retrievals from CloudSat (spaceborne 94 GHz radar). Surface precipitation was observed 44% ± 4% of the time between April 2016 and March 2017. Precipitation composed primarily of small particles (diameter <1 mm) occurred about 36% ± 2% of the time, constituting 10% of total accumulation. Remaining precipitation contained enough large particles such that the disdrometer could be used to identify the precipitation type as rain, ice, snow or wet snow. Seasonal and annual statistics on frequency of occurrence and accumulation for each precipitation type observed during MICRE are presented. Most ice and mixed phase precipitation was shallow, originating at a height of 3 km or lower, and occurred most often when Macquarie Island was to the northwest of the nearest cyclonic low-pressure center. In contrast, rain was more often deep and occurred most frequently when the island was to the southeast of cyclonic lows. A weak diurnal cycle in frequency and mean rate was present with a minimum between 12:00 and 14:00 local time and maximum between 03:00 and 06:00 local time. The CloudSat 2C-Precip-Column product missed the lightest precipitation (because the near-surface reflectivity is <-15 dBZ) and overestimated total liquid precipitation and occurrence of mixed phase precipitation, but captured reasonably well the distribution of rain rates for rates >0.5 mm/hr.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Climatology of the Vertical Profiles of Polarimetric Radar Variables and Retrieved Microphysical Parameters in Continental/Tropical MCSs and Landfalling Hurricanes

Most existing cloud models tend to overestimate the size of cloud ice particles and underestimate their concentration. This emphasizes the need to provide a reliable observational reference to optimize cloud model performance, particularly in areas of high concentration of ice at high altitudes. The dual-polarization radars give the community a unique opportunity to quantify cloud ice with a good accuracy using polarimetric radar retrievals. Here, in this study, we utilize the network of operational WSR-88D radars to build a climatology of the vertical profiles of radar variables, such as radar reflectivity Z, differential reflectivity Z DR , and specific differential phase K DP as well as the radar-retrieved vertical profiles of ice water content (IWC) above the melting layer and liquid water content below it, mean volume diameter D m , and total number concentration N t of ice and liquid particles. Such climatology was created for continental/marine mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and tropical cyclones including hurricanes. The dataset includes 13 continental MCSs, 10 marine MCSs, and 11 tropical cyclones. Separate statistics of the “background” vertical profiles and the ones associated with high IWC aloft have been obtained in the course of this study. It is shown that continental MCSs exhibit larger size of ice in lower concentration aloft compared to the marine MCSs and especially tropical cyclones/hurricanes. A combination of high KDP and low Z aloft signifies lower D m , higher N t , and often substantial IWC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the Regionality of Moist Kelvin Waves and the MJO: The Critical Role of the Background Zonal Flow

Abstract A global model with superparameterized physics is used to shed light on the observed regionality of convectively coupled Kelvin waves and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO). A series of aquaplanet simulations over zonally uniform sea‐surface temperatures is performed, in which the axisymmetric structure of the background zonal flow is altered through nudging, while maintaining a quasi‐fixed rainfall climatology. Results show that nudging at the equator to match profiles typical of the Indo‐Pacific or eastern Pacific sectors yields eastward‐moving tropical rain spectra typical of those sectors. Two different mechanistic pathways are identified as being responsible for this mean‐flow dependence, in addition to Doppler shifting effects. The first is through shifts of the Rossby wave critical line in the subtropical upper troposphere that affect the lateral forcing of Kelvin‐mode circulations at the equator by eastward and equatorward‐propagating eddies impinging on the tropics from higher latitudes. The second is through changes in the strength of the mean cyclonic shear in the lower tropical troposphere that affect the degree to which intraseasonal fluctuations in Kelvin‐mode zonal winds modulate the activity of higher‐frequency equatorial Rossby‐type eddies. In cases where the mean low‐level cyclonic shear is enhanced, the strength of this modulation, referred to as “shear‐induced eddy modulation” or SIEM, is also seen to be enhanced, such that MJO‐like modes of variability are rendered either unstable or near neutral, depending on the strength of the shear.

Tulich, S. N.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Convection-Permitting Simulations With the E3SM Global Atmosphere Model

This paper describes the first implementation of the Δx = 3.25 km version of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) global atmosphere model and its behavior in a 40-day prescribed-sea-surface-temperature simulation (January 20 through February 28, 2020). This simulation was performed as part of the DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) Phase 2 model intercomparison. Effective resolution is found to be ~ 6x the horizontal dynamics grid resolution despite using a coarser grid for physical parameterizations. Despite this new model being in an immature and untuned state, moving to 3.25 km grid spacing solves several long-standing problems with the E3SM model. In particular, Amazon precipitation is much more realistic, the frequency of light and heavy precipitation is improved, agreement between the simulated and observed diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation is excellent, and the vertical structure of tropical convection and coastal stratocumulus look good. In addition, the new model is able to capture the frequency and structure of important weather events (e.g., tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones including atmospheric rivers, and cold air outbreaks). Interestingly, this model does not get rid of the erroneous southern branch of the intertropical convergence zone nor the tendency for strongest convection to occur over the Maritime Continent rather than the West Pacific, both of which are classic climate model biases. Several other problems with the simulation are identified, underscoring the fact that this model is a work in progress.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the Simulation of CONUS Precipitation by Storm Type in E3SM

Abstract Conventional low‐resolution (LR) climate models, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1), have well‐known biases in simulating the frequency, intensity, and timing of precipitation. Approaches to next‐generation E3SM, whether the high‐resolution (HR) or multiscale modeling framework (MMF) configuration, improve the simulation of the intensity and frequency of precipitation, but regional and seasonal deficiencies still exist. Here we apply a methodology to assess the contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) to simulated precipitation in E3SMv1‐HR and E3SMv1‐MMF relative to E3SMv1‐LR. Across the United States, E3SMv1‐MMF provides the best simulation in terms of precipitation accumulation, frequency and intensity from MCSs and TCs compared to E3SMv1‐LR and E3SMv1‐HR. All E3SMv1 configurations overestimate precipitation amounts from and the frequency of ETCs over CONUS, with conventional E3SMv1‐LR providing the best simulation compared to observations despite limitations in precipitation intensity within these events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗