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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Synthesizing land use and demographic change in Southeast Asia’s smaller urbanized areas from 2000–2015

The majority of the human population now reside in urban areas today. The United Nations estimates that nearly half of all urban dwellers currently live in cities smaller than 500 000 persons and the majority of future urban growth will take place in Asia and Africa, likely in these smaller urban areas, not mega cities. Thus, understanding the factors that influence urban demographic trajectories in small urban areas is critical to address sustainable and equitable policy initiatives related to food security, changing climate hazard exposure, and economic opportunities. Here we focus on Southeast Asia—a region historically characterized by lower urban population proportions, yet with a rapidly shifting dynamic demographic—to examine correlates of demographic change among smaller cities. We combine two open-source satellite-informed datasets: GHS urban center database (2015) and age-sex gridded data from WorldPop to calculate socio-demographic characteristics to model drivers of change in annualized urban population growth from 2000–2015 for 505 urbanized places. We find a general pattern of decreasing dependency ratios as city-size increases for most urban areas in Southeast Asia. Higher rates of growth and more variation is observed for smaller cities—those with fewer than 300 000 persons, the lowest population limit for UN data on urbanization. When examining covariates of urban population growth, we find significant statistical associations of population change in smaller urbanized areas with climatic, economic, and land cover/land use variables, but with country-specific variations. Characterizing a continuum of urban population development in the context of changing environmental, economic and climate conditions has been an important sustainable development and equity issue for decades, but newer analysis of city-level drivers allows for systematic inquiry thus moving beyond total population counts for policy-relevant insight.

Southeast Asia synthesis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Transformation rate maps of dissolved organic carbon in the contiguous US

Riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) plays a vital role in regional and global carbon cycles. However, the processes of DOC conversion from soil organic carbon (SOC) and leaching into rivers are insufficiently understood, inconsistently represented, and poorly parameterized, particularly in land surface and Earth system models. As a first attempt to fill this gap, we propose a generic formula that directly connects SOC concentration with DOC concentration in headwater streams, where a single parameter, the transformation rate from SOC in the soil to DOC leaching flux (P r ), accounts for the overall processes governing SOC conversion to DOC and leaching from soils (along with runoff) into headwater streams. We then derive high-resolution P r maps over the contiguous US (CONUS) using SOC data from two different sources: the Harmonized World Soil Database v1.2 (HWSD) and SoilGrids 2.0. Both maps are developed following the same five major steps: (1) selecting independent catchments where observed riverine DOC data are available with reasonable quality; (2) estimating catchment-average SOC for the independent catchments; (3) estimating the P r values for these catchments based on the generic formula and catchment-average SOC; (4) developing a predictive model of P r with machine learning (ML) techniques and catchment-scale climate, hydrology, geology, and other attributes; and (5) deriving a national map of P r based on the ML model. For evaluation, we compare the DOC concentration derived using the P r map and the observed DOC concentration values at evaluation catchments. The resulting mean absolute scaled error and coefficient of determination are 0.73 and 0.47 for the HWSD-based model and 0.58 and 0.72 for the SoilGrids-based model, respectively, suggesting the effectiveness of the overall methodology. Efforts to constrain uncertainty and evaluate sensitivity of P r to different factors are discussed. To illustrate the use of such maps, we derive a riverine DOC concentration reanalysis dataset over CONUS. The two P r maps, robustly derived and empirically validated, lay a critical cornerstone for better simulating the terrestrial carbon cycle in land surface and Earth system models. Our findings not only set a foundation for improving our predictive understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle at the regional and global scales, but also hold promises for informing policy decisions related to decarbonization and climate change mitigation. The data presented in this study are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14563816 (Li et al., 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effective Communication of Energy Science and Technology

Although research, development, and deployment of advanced energy technologies are essential for the clean energy transition, communication about these technologies is equally important to their success. Energy is part of everyday life; therefore, changes in energy systems should be accepted by communities and industries. Yet details about energy generation, transmission, and environmental impacts are complex. The combination of commonality and complexity requires communications to use visualization, localization, narrative, and understandable terminology to reach a range of stakeholders. Collaboration between technology experts and communications professionals builds integrity and accessibility of energy information that enables community-based solutions for energy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Intensification differentially affects the delivery of multiple ecosystem services in subtropical and temperate grasslands

Intensification, the process of intensifying land management to enhance agricultural goods, results in “intensive” pastures that are planted with productive grasses and fertilized. These intensive pastures provide essential ecosystem services, including forage production for livestock. Understanding the synergies and tradeoffs of pasture intensification on the delivery of services across climatic regions is crucial to shape policies and incentives for better management of natural resources. Here, we investigated how grassland intensification affects key components of provisioning (forage productivity and quality), supporting (plant diversity) and regulating services (CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes) by comparing these services between intensive versus extensive pastures in subtropical and temperate pastures in the USDA Long-term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) Network sites in Florida and Oklahoma, USA over multiple years. Our results suggest that grassland intensification led to a decrease in measured supporting and regulating services, but increased forage productivity in temperate pastures and forage digestibility in subtropical pastures. Intensification decreased the net CO 2 sink of subtropical pastures while it did not affect the sink capacity of temperate pastures; and it also increased environmental CH 4 emissions from subtropical pastures and reduced CH 4 uptake in temperate pastures. Intensification enhanced the global warming potential associated with C fluxes of pastures in both ecoregions. Our study demonstrates that comparisons of agroecosystems in contrasting ecoregions can reveal important drivers of ecosystem services and general or region-specific opportunities and solutions to maintaining agricultural production and reducing environmental footprints. Further LTAR network-scale comparisons of multiple ecosystem services across croplands and grazinglands intensively vs extensively managed are warranted to inform the sustainable intensification of agriculture within US and beyond. Our results highlight that achieving both food security and environmental stewardship will involve the conservation of less intensively managed pastures while adopting sustainable strategies in intensively managed pastures.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Variable renewable energy deployment in low-emission scenarios: The role of technology cost and value

While rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies, namely wind and solar PV, is often projected in 2C pathways generated by integrated assessment models, there is a wide range in projected VRE deployment by mid-century. Such differences could be the result of differences in assumptions about future technology costs and/or differences in model approaches for capturing other aspects of technology competitiveness. Here we introduce a consistent competitiveness metric, profitability-adjusted levelized cost of electricity (or PLCOE), to an integrated assessment model (EPPA) to evaluate the representation of technology competition, including VRE, in low-emission scenarios. We show that representing the value of technology (alongside cost) may significantly impact VRE deployment relative to scenarios without such an adjustment. In addition, we show that varying VRE costs by about 35% in 2050 results in differences in VRE deployment that span much of the range in outcomes (over the same period) observed in likely 2C scenarios assessed by the IPCC, suggesting that both cost and value are key drivers of VRE deployment in such scenarios. Given the central role that VRE technologies play in the electricity mix across most scenarios, we also find that alternative cost assumptions for VRE technologies can lead to changes in electricity prices, the associated demand for electricity, and total final and primary energy consumption. However, the demand for fuels other than electricity is relatively insensitive to VRE assumptions in the 2C scenarios considered here.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Implementation and Evaluation of Emission‐Driven Land‐Atmosphere Coupled Simulation in E3SMv2.1

Emissions-driven (prognostic CO 2 ) simulations are essential for representing two-way carbon-climate feedback in Earth System Models. We present an emissions-driven land–atmosphere coupled biogeochemistry (BGC) configuration (BGCLNDATM_progCO2) in version 2.1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2.1). This is the first E3SM configuration that performs land-atmosphere emission-hindcasts. Here, we document its implementation, evaluate the model's performance against observations and other models, and propose a structured evaluation protocol for such emissions-driven simulations. We conducted transient historical simulations (1850–2014) with BGCLNDATM_progCO2 and compare them to reference simulations—a land-atmosphere coupled simulation without BGC and a standalone land simulation with BGC, both using prescribed CO 2 concentrations—and to observations. BGCLNDATM_progCO2 overestimates atmospheric CO 2 concentrations by 11–23 ppm yet stays within the 40-ppm spread CMIP6 emission-driven models and retains physical climate properties comparable to the reference runs. The CO 2 biases are partly attributed to underrepresented oceanic CO 2 uptake and inadequate representations of some terrestrial processes. In general, introducing prognostic CO 2 did not change physical climate metrics at the global scale but had larger regional effects, particularly over land where spatially heterogeneous CO 2 and prognostic leaf area index influenced surface energy balance. Finally, we propose a general evaluation protocol including spin-up assessment, atmospheric CO 2 benchmarking, physical climate evaluation, and land biogeochemical analysis to support scientific rigor and facilitate inter-model comparisons. The new configuration lays the groundwork for future enhancements, including improved terrestrial biogeochemical processes, integrated marine biogeochemistry, and additional human–Earth system interactions. These developments advance E3SM toward fully coupled emissions-driven simulations, enabling more accurate carbon–climate feedback projections and informing mitigation policy by providing physically consistent carbon-budget metrics for mitigation scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impacts Analysis of Amendments to Mexico's Unit Commitment and Dispatch Rules

In Mexico, there are various amendments, approved and under discussion to significantly modify the order in which generation units are committed and dispatched. This report quantifies the potential impacts on Mexico's power system, utilizing a production cost model of the Mexican power system that analyzes the hourly optimal electricity dispatch of the Mexican electricity system for 1 year under four scenarios, a reference scenario, and three alternative scenarios. These scenarios are meant to evaluate the potential impacts of increasing participation of the state-owned power plants in generation mix, electricity production costs, emissions, and renewable curtailment.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Historical Extreme Weather Event Impacts

Resilience planning, particularly energy and water resilience planning, has been a key priority for the federal government for many years, leading federal agencies to develop processes for identifying and addressing critical resilience gaps at their facilities and sites. Furthermore, recent federal policy is driving agencies to prioritize climate change impacts as a more central component of their resilience planning efforts. To achieve this, federal sites must understand their vulnerability to climate change, which involves identifying climate hazards projected to impact the site (known as exposure), as well as understanding the sensitivity (the degree to which a site, including its people and the things they value, could be harmed by that exposure), and adaptive capacity of the site (the degree to which the site could lessen bathe potential for harm by taking action to reduce exposure and sensitivity). To assess and understand sensitivity and adaptive capacity, it is important to first obtain a baseline and understand how a site has been impacted by past events, in addition to considering the potential for unprecedented impacts based on climate projections. This information paper highlights current limitations for developing event history assessments and suggests a framework for more consistently capturing key data points. The purpose of this paper is to help inform how organizations could begin structuring a comprehensive process for recording the impacts of extreme weather events in order to facilitate climate vulnerability assessments, and thus, resilience planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

CMIP7 data request: Earth system priorities and opportunities

This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) request for data pertaining to Earth systems science, and provides justification for the resources needed to produce this data. Topics within the CMIP7 Earth System (CMIP7-ES) theme centre around tracking of flows of energy, carbon, water and other fluxes across domains, and constraining feedbacks between these cycles and the climate system. These topics are summarized in this paper as scientific “opportunities” describing specific model intercomparison experiments and use cases for next-generation Earth System Model (ESM) output. These opportunities were submitted by modelling groups and scientific consortia following an extended public consultation process. Contained within each opportunity are requests for groups of Climate & Forecasting (CF) variables, which are bundled into variable groups representing all data required to address the opportunities' needs. Novel opportunities in CMIP7 compared with previous phases will include running `emissions-driven' simulations that integrate carbon emissions and removal scenarios with updated representations of the global carbon cycle, expanded variable groups needed to model marine trophic interactions and biogeochemistry, and data needed to understand the risk of global tipping points, among others. The production of these variables will close key gaps and uncertainties identified during previous rounds of CMIP, and support the 7th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (AR7). We argue that CMIP7-ES data will be broadly used by scientific, policy, governmental, industry, and other communities that rely on climate model projections for research and decision making. As an author group we also reflect on the evolution of the CMIP7-ES data request as a part of a deliberative process in support of the global CMIP program.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scout Benchmark Scenarios for U.S. Building Energy and CO2 Emissions to 2050

Overview and Intended Use Cases: These scenarios establish a range of futures for U.S. buildings sector energy use and CO2 emissions to 2050 using Scout (scout.energy.gov), a reproducible and granular model of U.S. building energy use, emissions, and consumer costs developed by the U.S. national labs for the U.S. Department of Energy's Building Technologies Office (BTO). Scout benchmark scenario data are suitable for the following example use cases: setting high-level policy goals for the U.S. buildings sector to 2050 (e.g., X% building CO2 emissions reductions vs. 2005 levels by 2030, Y% reductions vs. 2005 levels by 2050); exploring the effects of key dynamics driving U.S. buildings sector energy and CO2 emissions to 2050 that could be affected by policy levers (e.g., raising minimum technology performance levels; accelerating electrification and/or retrofit rates; introducing breakthrough technologies to the market); determining priority segments (regions, building types, and end use/technology types) and sequencing of U.S. buildings sector energy and CO2 emissions reductions to 2050 under a given set of assumptions; and/or identifying the energy and emissions impacts or cost effectiveness of specific technologies or operational approaches of interest—in isolation or after considering competition with other measures in a scenario portfolio. Scenario Summary: A total of 8 scenarios explore the effects of changes across both the demand- and supply-side of building energy use on annual U.S. building energy use and CO2 emissions from 2022–2050. Scenarios are organized into three groups representing low, moderate, and best-case potentials for building decarbonization, respectively.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 11. Climate Adaptation and Resilience

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89265 for the French translation of this document.

adaptation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Guide de base pour l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti: 11. Adaptation et resilience au climat

Cette formation donne un apercu des informations et des concepts cles de l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti, renforcant ainsi les connaissances fondamentales et la capacite de catalyser l'interet pour l'energie solaire hors reseau pour l'electrification rurale en Haiti. Ce cours a rythme libre est offert en anglais et en francais et couvre une variete de sujets lies a l'acces a l'energie en Haiti, notamment les produits solaires hors reseau, le potentiel du marche en Haiti, les considerations liees a l'offre et a la demande, la conception, l'installation et la maintenance du systeme, -modeles commerciaux solaires en reseau, modelisation financiere, genre et acces a l'energie, utilisation productive de l'energie et adaptation au climat. La formation est destinee aux etudiants universitaires, aux partenaires gouvernementaux, aux ONG, aux bailleurs de fonds, aux partenaires de developpement, aux professionnels, etc. Aucune connaissance prealable du solaire hors reseau ou d'Haiti n'est requise pour beneficier de cette formation. See NREL/PR-7A40-89254 for the English translation of this document.

adaptation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Environmental impact of national and subnational carbon policies in China based on a multi-regional dynamic CGE model

Carbon policies are important not only for mitigating global climate change, but also for controlling local and regional air pollution. The large regional disparities in economic development and air pollution across China calls for regionally differentiated policies. Previous studies have not systematically investigated the environmental impacts of regional carbon policies in China covering different spatial scales. This study constructs a multi-regional dynamic computable general quilibrium (CGE) model covering 30 provinces of China to assess the impacts of national and subnational carbon polices on CO2 emissions and co-emitted air pollutants from 2020 to 2050. We consider one national carbon policy which aims to achieve China’s 2030 national CO2 abatement target, as well as three regional policies with the same policy stringency as the national one but only applied to eastern China (EP), the Jiangsu-Shanghai-Zhejiang area (JSZP), and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area (BTHP), respectively. We find that regional policies (EP, JSZP, and BTHP) are as effective in reducing CO2 emissions in their targeted regions as the national policy. However, they lead to an increase in CO2 emissions in untargeted regions (the so-called “emissions leakage”). The CO2 leakage rates, which depend on the policy spatial coverage, are 4%, 13%, and 65% for EP, JSZP, and BTHP, respectively, in 2050. Compared with CO2, changes in air pollutant emissions, including sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOC), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), exhibit a similar pattern under all policy scenarios, but the magnitude of change is significantly smaller. Transportation, thermal power, and some energy intensive industries are the three largest contributors to CO2 and air pollutant emission reductions. Our results suggest that regional carbon policy is effective in reducing CO2 and air pollutant emissions in the targeted regions, and extending the spatial coverage or increasing policy stringency can largely inhibit emissions leakage.

Zhang, Wenwen↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations

Quantifying how climate change may impact precipitation extremes is a priority for informing adaptation and policy planning. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 global climate models are analyzed to identify robust signals of projected changes in summer and winter precipitation extremes over the United States (US). Under a projected fossil-fuel based economic (i.e. high greenhouse gas emissions) scenario, our results show consistent changes in the seasonal patterns for many precipitation extremes by the end of the 21st century. We find a robust projected increase in the intensity of winter precipitation across models, with less agreement during the summer. Similarly, a robust projected amplification of heavy precipitation over the northern US is evident in winter, while intermodel spread is prevalent in summer projections. Specifically, the heavy and very heavy winter precipitation days (R10mm and R20mm) exhibit larger increases compared to other aspects of precipitation. Additionally, changes in dry extremes (e.g. consecutive dry days) are found to differ significantly across various subregions and seasons. Overall, our results suggest that the US may suffer more natural disasters such as floods and droughts in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

System identity and transformation in petroleum jurisdictions: A multi-method approach for the North Slope Borough, Alaska

Capturing the multidimensionality of a bounded social-environmental system (SES) presents a range of challenges to interdisciplinary researchers due to the need to integrate divergent scientific paradigms, scalar data, and social theories. Contemporary Arctic circumpolar SESs studied under conditions of rapid and unprecedented climatic, ecological, economic, and sociopolitical change, defy any singular established methodological approach that aims to schematize and interpret the system for decision-making purposes. As a small interdisciplinary team working within a large Arctic SES modeling effort, we have found that developing systems models to support resilience in the Arctic requires an understanding of system dynamics that is attentive to holistic indicators of change, measured both quantitatively and qualitatively. Using the Alaska North Slope Borough as a case study, we apply three convergent frameworks to capture significant dimensions of the system for improved problem definition in confronting the challenges of Arctic climate change. We describe contemporary “oil and gas” social-ecological system components and dynamics, the historical processes and transformations that fundamentally altered the system, and the scientific projections for the most likely catalysts of future change. This analysis results in a typology for defining subnational Arctic hydrocarbon SESs. We conclude that the future of oil and gas development as a policy pathway in different locations experiencing rapid climate change can be evaluated when difficult-to-quantify variables are included.

Lovecraft, Amy Lauren↗
DOE OSTI2020

Expanding the Field of Climate Finance

Over the past twenty-one years, the Financial Innovations Roundtable (FIR), located at the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire, has worked to address problems related to access to capital for low- and moderate-income consumers and communities. Since 2014, the event has been co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Board. The FIR works with a range of financial institutions, government agencies, foundations, and trade associations to access their expertise for problem-solving discussions. The 2020 FIR focused on the expanding field of climate finance and was co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and The Climate Safe Lending Network. The event was originally slated to be in-person in San Francisco in May 2020 but was postponed due to the pandemic and shifted to an online event hosted November 16‒17, 2020. A significant amount has happened in 2020 on climate finance, racial justice, the economy, and COVID-19. The shocks and stresses of climate change are creating risks in low- and moderate-income communities as well as in the financial sector broadly. The 2020 FIR offered an opportunity to discuss the challenges and opportunities banks and Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs) face as they address these risks and how these institutions can help increase individual, institutional, and community-wide resilience. The program explored new and modified products that address climate risk in communities and how those products can be scaled. Conversations focused around: • The progress that has been made in the climate finance field and the challenges that lie ahead for financial institutions’ climate impact and climate-related risk. • Promising opportunities to decarbonize investments and finance low-carbon technology and infrastructure. • How lenders, insurers, housing organizations, and the public sector can work together to reduce housing instability due to climate-related factors and increase the climate-resilience of homes and neighborhoods. • Solutions to help communities address a wide range of related issues, including home weatherization and disaster preparation, home insurance loss, and climate gentrification and displacement. • Discussing lessons learned from other sectors such as renewable energy in order to design both people-based and place-based finance solutions that promote racial and economic inclusion. 1 • The need for all financial institutions to acknowledge that climate risks and racial inequity are systemic risks affecting their bottom line. • The role that bank regulators can play in promoting collaboration across the financial sector and in leading by example with regard to climate finance. • Mapping out concrete action-item initiatives including policy and industry pathways to climate safe lending as well as building a financing platform to provide clean energy to low-income communities. • More broadly, in order to systemically address climate risks, we will need to work together as a range of stakeholders across sectors and collaborate on shared goals and projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions to Protect Permafrost Ecosystems

Climate change is an existential threat to the vast global permafrost domain. The diverse human cultures, ecological communities, and biogeochemical cycles of this tenth of the planet depend on the persistence of frozen conditions. The complexity, immensity, and remoteness of permafrost ecosystems make it difficult to grasp how quickly things are changing and what can be done about it. Here, we summarize terrestrial and marine changes in the permafrost domain with an eye toward global policy. While many questions remain, we know that continued fossil fuel burning is incompatible with the continued existence of the permafrost domain as we know it. If we fail to protect permafrost ecosystems, the consequences for human rights, biosphere integrity, and global climate will be severe. The policy implications are clear: the faster we reduce human emissions and draw down atmospheric CO 2 , the more of the permafrost domain we can save. Emissions reduction targets must be strengthened and accompanied by support for local peoples to protect intact ecological communities and natural carbon sinks within the permafrost domain. Some proposed geoengineering interventions such as solar shading, surface albedo modification, and vegetation manipulations are unproven and may exacerbate environmental injustice without providing lasting protection. Conversely, astounding advances in renewable energy have reopened viable pathways to halve human greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and effectively stop them well before 2050. We call on leaders, corporations, researchers, and citizens everywhere to acknowledge the global importance of the permafrost domain and work towards climate restoration and empowerment of Indigenous and immigrant communities in these regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of solar geoengineering on temperature-attributable mortality

Decisions about solar geoengineering (SG) entail risk–risk tradeoffs between the direct risks of SG and SG’s ability to reduce climate risks. Quantitative comparisons between these risks are needed to inform public policy. We evaluate idealized SG’s effectiveness in reducing deaths from warming using two climate models and an econometric analysis of temperature-attributable mortality. We find SG’s impact on temperature-attributable mortality is uneven with decreases for hotter, poorer regions and increases in cooler, richer regions. Relative to no SG, global mortality is reduced by over 400,000 deaths annually [90% CI: (−1.2 million,2.7 million)] for cooling of 1 °C from 2.5 °C above preindustrial in 2080. We find no evidence that mortality reduction achieved by SG is smaller than the reduction from equivalent cooling by emissions reductions. Combining our estimates with existing estimates of sulphate aerosol injection direct mortality risk from air quality and UV-attributable cancer enables the first quantitative risk-risk comparison of SG. We estimate with 61% probability that the mortality benefits of cooling outweigh these direct SG risks. We find the benefits outweigh these risks by 13 times for our central estimates, or 4 deaths per 100,000 per 1 °C per year [90% CI: (−11,23)]. This is not a comprehensive evaluation of the risk–risk tradeoffs around SG, yet by comparing some of the most consequential impacts on human welfare it is a useful first step. While these findings are robust to a variety of alternative assumptions, considerable uncertainties remain and require further investigation.

Harding, Anthony (ORCID:0000000262898253)↗