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DOE OSTI2025

PyARC Status Report: New Integrations and Upgrades to the Fast Reactor Analysis Workflow Management Tool

PyARC was initially developed as an open source tool to support fast reactor analyses using the Argonne Reactor Computation (ARC) code suite as a part of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Workbench initiative in FY17. The goal of this initiative is to provide a common user interface for model generation, real-time validation, execution, output processing, and visualization for all integrated codes. This is accomplished through the reliance on tools available in the Workbench framework and runtime environment. While initially developed to support the ARC codes, PyARC was extended in FY22 to wrap other NEAMS and non-ARC codes, including Griffin and OpenMC, in the supported other neutronics workflows, and support users in the adoption of NEAMS-supported high fidelity analysis codes. Most recently, NUBOW-3D, a recently adopted ARC code, was integrated to support reactor bowing calculations as well. Integration of these codes into the NEAMS Workbench directly benefits the advanced reactor modeling community by: • Providing a set of controlled, maintained, documented and validated scripts to generate inputs, which promotes best practices, reduces the learning curve, and facilitates project collaboration. • Improving the user experience: the Workbench interface provides assistance for building an input through auto-completion, real-time validation, document navigation, and geometry and results visualization. • Automating complex calculations and workflows for reactor analysis. • Helping users transition to using high-fidelity NEAMS codes along-side the ARC codes. In FY22, a progress report was published that described the state of each of the tools integrated into PyARC. Since then, there have been many enhancements and upgrades to the existing integrations as well as entirely new code integrations as well. This report details all new integrations and major developments in PyARC since the version 2.0.0 release highlighted in the FY22 report.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

SHADOW4: the popular ray tracing revived for evolving synchrotron sources in fourth-generation storage rings

We present SHADOW4, a new version of the popular ray tracing code. The SHADOW kernel has been completely rewritten in Python applying modern concepts of software engineering. A new user interface is available in the OASYS ecosystem. The new tool has been designed and implemented preparing the future needs both in computing (cloud computing, AI integration) and in the transit to fourth generation sources and beyond.

Sanchez del Rio, Manuel↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improvement and Verification of Online Cross Section Generation Capability of Griffin for TRISO-fueled Reactors

Griffin, a MOOSE-based reactor multiphysics code jointly developed by Idaho National Laboratory and Argonne National Laboratory under the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy’s NEAMS program, has pursued the development of an online multigroup cross section generation capability for a few years to enable high-fidelity, problem-dependent neutronics analyses of advanced thermal reactors. Recent advancements in Griffin’s online multigroup cross section generation capability have significantly improved the accuracy, robustness, and efficiency of self-shielding calculations for both prismatic and pebble-bed TRISO-fueled reactor applications. Key developments include a unified fuel self-shielding method applicable to both TRISO and annular compact/spherical shell fuel zone geometries; an advanced Dancoff Category-based Equivalence Theory using a bell function for non-fuel resonance treatment, achieving more than an order-of-magnitude speedup compared to the Tone method; an on-the-fly multigroup equivalence approach to mitigate group condensation errors; and a streaming correction method for pebble-bed homogenization. A proof-of-concept demonstration of on-the-fly group condensation with consistent P0 transport correction was also achieved. The method reproduced direct fine-group solutions with excellent accuracy (eigenvalue errors within 10 pcm and pin-power differences within 0.5%), but due to performance limitations of the current fixed-source solver, improvements to solver efficiency will be addressed in future work. Verification tests were performed on graphite-moderated TRISO-fueled two-dimensional core benchmark problems representing gas-cooled microreactors, heat pipe-cooled microreactors, gas-cooled pebble-bed reactors, and fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactors. Across all cases, Griffin showed excellent agreement with Serpent2 continuous energy Monte Carlo solutions: eigenvalue errors within 200 pcm, pin-power root-mean-square errors within 2%, and control rod and drum worth errors less than 2%. It should be noted that, for the benchmark problem, cross section generation contributed less than 3% of the total simulation times. These results demonstrate that Griffin’s online cross section generation capability delivers accurate and efficient reactor physics solutions across a wide spectrum of TRISO-fueled advanced reactor designs. With further improvements to the fine-group fixed-source solver and planned extensions to depletion, transients, and coupled neutron–gamma transport, Griffin will be well-positioned to become a powerful and comprehensive tool for advanced reactor analysis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

ARCANE Reweighting Demo

ARCANE reweighting is a Monte Carlo technique for tackling the negative weights problem in simulations in high energy physics. The technique works by redistributing (via an additive reweighting) the contributions of different pathways within an event generator that lead to the same final event. The technique is exact and does not introduce any biases in the distributions of physical observables. This repository contains the code and data associated with a demonstration of ARCANE reweighting, for the generation of $e^+ e^- \longrightarrow q\bar{q} + 1\,\mathrm{jet}$ events at next-to-leading-order accuracy in perturbation theory. ARCANE reweighting was shown to almost completely eliminate the negative weights problem for this process.

Shyamsundar, Prasanth [Fermi National Accelerator ↗
DOE OSTI2025

FY25 status report on the addition of candidate materials in Class B Code Case

This report provides the time-dependent allowable stress calculation strategy leveraging the limited creep rupture tests data generated to support the allowable stress for 100,000 hours in American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC), Section II, Part D. A variable confidence index procedure to extrapolate material properties to support 500,000 hours design life is discussed. Time-dependent allowable stresses for Class B component design and analysis are presented for Grade 1 and Grade 2 of Alloy 625. The presented data extrapolation and allowable stress calculation method will support new material addition using limited creep rupture data in the new ASME Boiler and BPVC, Section III, Division 5, Class B rules.

Part D↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validation and Verification of Python based Neutron Spectrum Unfolding Software

To validate and verify the python-based code (PySL), designed to replicate the programs used by STAYSL for Beam Correction Factor (BCF) and Self-Shielding Factor (SHIELD), a series of tests were performed. To test BCF a python script was written to generate a random flux history file and both versions of the code processed the data. The test verified matching values up to at least one decimal place, approximately 10,000 tests where run and each one passed. Isotopes began to fail the tests once neutron saturation was reached. To verify this the total time of exposure was varied the isotopes that failed were compared to a list of their half-lives. The test process for SHIELD was very similar but, in this case, the code began by producing an input file with varying thickness and device type/environment for the SHIELD input. The failure condition for this test was if any of the data points for an isotope had a difference above 3%. Approximately 40 of these tests were run and there were only 3 isotopes that had reoccurring failures but only 2% of their points were above the 3% difference. A visual comparison was conducted by plotting the results from both programs. Although the test failed, the differences between their values were minuscule, and the self-shielding factor’s shape was preserved when plotted. Next steps for this project will be validating and verifying the python-based SigPhi code and then reproducing and testing the least squares unfolding performed by STAYSL.

73 - NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

ACDC (Automated Campbell Diagram Code) [SWR-26-042]

This application provides a web-based graphical user interface to generating Campbell Diagrams and visualizing mode shapes for OpenFAST turbine models. Determining the aeroelastic stability and dynamic characteristics of wind turbines is a critical step in turbine design and analysis. Historically, extracting natural frequencies and mode shapes from OpenFAST—the industry-standard whole-turbine simulation code—has been a fragmented and tedious process. It required manual model configuration, command-line linearization execution, and complex post-processing via proprietary scripts to handle rotating-frame dynamics. To address these workflow bottlenecks, we present the Automated Campbell Diagram Code (ACDC), an open-source graphical software tool developed by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) under the DOE-funded Distributed Wind Aeroelastic Modeling (dWAM) project. ACDC streamlines the end-to-end linearization and stability analysis workflow into a single, intuitive cross-platform application. The software guides users through OpenFAST model configuration, definition of operating points, and the automated execution of steady-state trim and linearization simulations. Under the hood, ACDC automates the complex mathematical post-processing steps required for rotating systems, including Multi-Blade Coordinate (MBC) transformations, eigenanalysis, and advanced modal tracking utilizing the Modal Assurance Criterion (MAC) and spectral clustering. Finally, ACDC processes these results to automatically generate Campbell diagrams and features a robust 3D visualization engine to animate full-system mode shapes. By eliminating the reliance on external post-processing environments and manual data manipulation, ACDC significantly accelerates dynamic analysis and lowers the barrier to entry for wind energy researchers and engineers.

Summerville, Brent [National Laboratory of the Roc↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of error fields and error field correction on heat fluxes in SPARC

Using a single toroidal array of coils to reduce the m,n = 2,1 resonant error field (EF) produced by the misalignment of the axisymmetric coils in SPARC can result in the enhancement of the local divertor heat fluxes. Managing high divertor heat fluxes (q ∥ $\simeq$ 10 GW m -2 ) poses a challenge for compact tokamak devices such as SPARC. The presence of non-axisymmetric magnetic field perturbations adds complexity to the problem by generating intricate 3D edge magnetic topologies that alter the heat flux distributions on the target plates. The aim of this work is to investigate the impact of the EF correction (EFC) on the heat fluxes at the divertor plates in SPARC. The MHD code M3DC1 has been used to simulate the 3D magnetic perturbations generated by the shift and tilt of several axisymmetric coils within specified tolerances, as well as from the array of EFC coils located at the midplane. Using a heuristic model that extends the concept of an axisymmetric heat flux layer to 3D plasmas, the resultant heat flux distributions is derived from magnetic footprints calculated with the MAFOT code. The results show that the EFC could either decrease or further enhance the local heat flux when used to correct the m,n = 2,1 resonant EF to enhance the core plasma performance.

3D fields↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Time Dependent Reactor and Sensor Physics on Core Power Synthesis

Online synthesis of the power distribution is critical in the operation and control of nuclear power reactors to ensure that the core is operating within safety margins, and to provide essential knowledge associated with the burnup of the fuel. In light water reactors (LWRs), power synthesis is achieved by using some a priori knowledge of the state of the reactor core and updating based on the signals coming from in-core sensors—namely, self-powered neutron detectors (SPNDs). This report aims to study the effects of fuel burnup and sensor degradation on the ability to accurately synthesize the power distribution in a LWR. Several modeling tools were used to simulate power synthesis based on the responses of SPNDs, with emitters made out of Rh or V. A representative pressurized water reactor low-enriched uranium (LEU) core was modeled using the Polaris/Purdue Advanced Reactor Core Simulator (PARCS) approach. The Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport 6 (MCNP6) code was used, as well, to calculate response functions between different segments of fuel to individual SPNDs; this is a crucial parameter for power synthesis. The Oak Ridge Isotope GENeration (ORIGEN) package in the Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code was used to model the time-dependent isotopic transmutation in the SPND emitters. All these data were fed into a custom code that enacted the point-based iterative (PBI) method to simulate power synthesis. Developmental work was also performed on high-fidelity SPND models in the GEometry ANd Tracking 4 (Geant4) code, which enables higher-accuracy modeling of the current responses from SPNDs. In this work, five sets of time-dependent power synthesis test cases were conducted. In these test cases, systematic changes in the input conditions enabled an analysis of the effect of (1) slightly inaccurate a priori power distribution assumptions with respect to fuel burnup, (2) highly inaccurate a priori assumptions with respect to fuel burnup (such that burnup is not included in the a priori assumed distribution), and (3) differences between Rh and V SPNDs in terms of downstream consequences of the transmutation in the emitters. The authors discovered that one may permissibly have slightly inaccurate a priori assumptions of the fuel burnup (such that the level of burnup may be slightly under- or over-approximated by the accumulated burnup in approximately 9.3 full power days), but to not account for burnup at all in the a priori assumption leads to severe levels of error, approaching 25% at maximum. The authors also discovered that V SPNDs are extraordinarily robust in the low-enriched uranium fuel cycle considered in this modeling work, whereas Rh SPNDs undergo significant transmutation that can result in large errors in the synthesized power distribution.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impact of Time-Dependent Reactor and Sensor Physics on Core Power Synthesis (Rev.1)

Online synthesis of power distribution is critical in the operation and control of nuclear power reactors to ensure that the core is operating within safety margins and to provide essential knowledge associated with the burnup of the fuel. In light-water reactors, power synthesis is achieved by using some a priori knowledge of the state of the reactor core and updating based on the signals coming from in-core sensors—namely, self-powered neutron detectors (SPNDs). This report examines the effects of fuel burnup and sensor degradation on the ability to accurately synthesize the power distribution in a pressurized water reactor (PWR), considering the typical low-enriched uranium (LEU, 3%-5% enrichment) fuel cycle as well as the higher enrichment LEU+ (5%-8% enrichment) fuel cycle. Several modeling tools were used to simulate power synthesis based on the responses of SPNDs, with emitters made out of Rh or V. A representative PWR LEU core was modeled using the Polaris/Purdue Advanced Reactor Core Simulator (PARCS) approach. The Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport 6 (MCNP6) code was used as well to calculate response functions between different segments of fuel to individual SPNDs; this is a crucial parameter for power synthesis. The Oak Ridge Isotope GENeration (ORIGEN) package in the Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code was used to model the time-dependent isotopic transmutation in the SPND emitters. All these data were fed into a custom code that enacted the point-based iterative method to simulate power synthesis. Developmental work was also performed on high-fidelity SPND models in the GEometry ANd Tracking 4 (Geant4) code, which enables higher-accuracy modeling of the current responses from SPNDs. In this work, five sets of time-dependent power synthesis test cases were conducted. In these test cases, systematic changes in the input conditions enabled an analysis of the effect of (1) slightly inaccurate a priori power distribution assumptions with respect to fuel burnup, (2) highly inaccurate a priori power distribution assumptions with respect to fuel burnup (such that burnup is not included in the a priori assumed distribution), and (3) differences between Rh and V SPNDs in terms of downstream consequences of the transmutation in the emitters and the extended nature of the LEU+ fuel cycle in comparison with LEU. The authors discovered that one may permissibly have slightly inaccurate a priori assumptions of the fuel burnup (such that the level of burnup may be slightly underapproximated or overapproximated by the accumulated burnup in approximately 9.3 full power days), but to not account for burnup at all in the a priori assumptions leads to severe levels of error, approaching 25% at maximum (for LEU). The authors also discovered that V SPNDs are extraordinarily robust in both the LEU and LEU+ fuel cycles considered in this modeling work, whereas Rh SPNDs undergo significant transmutation that can result in large errors in the synthesized power distribution.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Standardized Analysis Process Using Digital Image Correlation to Calculate In Situ Cladding Strain from Modified Burst Tests for Fuel Performance Code Validation

Historical data collection on nuclear fuel cladding materials has focused on generating a statistically significant amount of data to assess the material and its failure behavior. Furthermore, data generated to support material model and failure criteria development were previously posttest evaluations, so a large number of tests was required to gain new understanding. A way to expedite this process is to develop techniques capable of generating large, high-fidelity data sets from a single test with lower uncertainty or quantified uncertainty. One such example of this approach is Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s use of modified burst tests (MBTs) to analyze the mechanical behavior and failure conditions of cladding during a simulated reactivity-initiated accident (RIA). Each test incorporates digital image correlation (DIC) analysis techniques that are used to assess the accumulated strain in situ, as well as eventual cladding failure. This work has been fruitful in defining strain-to-failure conditions for materials like silicon carbide (SiC) fiber–reinforced/SiC matrix composite tubes (SiC/SiC), iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) alloy tubes, and chromium-coated Zircaloy-4 tubes. However, there are numerous DIC software available, including open-source and proprietary software. The different DIC software use various algorithms to process images and calculate displacement values. Using these different software and algorithms can lead to varying results, and perhaps larger-than-expected uncertainties. In the present study, previously published MBT data encompassing a variety of test conditions were reanalyzed with two different DIC software to assess the variance in the calculated strain results. The data consisted of SiC/SiC, FeCrAl, and chromium-coated Zircaloy-4 tubes. Plots of the calculated strains during the transient revealed good agreement between the two DIC software. The average root-mean-square errors between the two software was 0.20% strain, which is slightly larger than a previously reported error value for these tests. In conclusion, this variance in results is low enough that this analysis method can be used for code validation.

Reactivity-initiated accident↗
DOE OSTI2025

SAM Two-Phase Flow Model Development and Applications for Operational Transients in Advanced Reactors

As advanced nuclear technologies continue to develop, the need for the flexible operation and generation of these advanced reactors becomes necessary to maximize economic potential. As large-scale experiments are not always feasible, modeling and simulations of advanced reactors play a crucial role in design optimization and analysis. The SAM (System Analysis Module) code developed at Argonne National Laboratory is a state-of-the-art system-level thermal-hydraulic code aimed at simulating advanced reactor systems. Recent code developments have implemented two-phase flow modeling using the homogeneous equilibrium model, and a new steam generator component has been developed to utilize the two-phase flow implementation. In addition to verification tests, a load-following simulation was performed to model a realistic load-following transient in a proposed integrated system consisting of a conceptual advanced reactor known as the Advanced Burner Test Reactor (ABTR) and thermal energy storage (TES) tanks. The integrated system model uses two large TES tanks designed for sodium and a model helical coil steam generator to simulate the operational load-following transient. The flow rates of the feedwater and secondary loops are regulated to meet a prescribed steam generator load consistent with the electricity demand over a 24-h period. In conclusion, the results found the ABTR system was able to maintain stable reactor conditions and primary- and secondary-side characteristics over the course of the load-following transient.

Advanced Burner Test Reactor (ABTR)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Standardized nomenclature for photovoltaic connectors

Photovoltaic (PV) systems rely on discrete connectors for the efficient and safe flow of power from module to module and from strings to combiner boxes and inverters. Despite their functional importance, no common nomenclature for PV connectors currently exists, resulting in confusion and miscommunication. Misunderstood terms like "MC4 compatible", "cross-mating", "intermating", "female", and "male" can lead to installation and maintenance errors and compromise system reliability. We believe a standardized terminology will reduce confusion, help support installation best practices, aid in maintenance and repair, inform next-generation designs, and provide a technical basis for improved codes and standards. To that end, we are proposing a standardized glossary for 4 mm PV connectors (the most common type of connector used in PV applications) based on, and validated by, a Sandia National Laboratories' investigation that included the following sources: 1) a comprehensive review of official documents from 20 connector manufacturers, including schematics, datasheets, installation manuals, and catalogs, as well as relevant patents; 2) two rounds of surveys distributed to stakeholders, including connector manufacturers, engineers, asset owners, test labs, and researchers; and 3) visual examination of 25 different models of 4 mm single-pole DC PV connectors to document variations in design and functionality. This work provides a foundation for establishing a clear and consistent terminology for PV connectors that will in turn enable progress toward greater reliability and collaboration across the industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

LevSeq: Rapid Generation of Sequence-Function Data for Directed Evolution and Machine Learning

Sequence-function data provides valuable information about the protein functional landscape but is rarely obtained during directed evolution campaigns. Here, we present Long-read every variant Sequencing (LevSeq), a pipeline that combines a dual barcoding strategy with nanopore sequencing to rapidly generate sequence-function data for entire protein-coding genes. LevSeq integrates into existing protein engineering workflows and comes with open-source software for data analysis and visualization. The pipeline facilitates data-driven protein engineering by consolidating sequence-function data to inform directed evolution and provide the requisite data for machine learning-guided protein engineering (MLPE). LevSeq enables quality control of mutagenesis libraries prior to screening, which reduces time and resource costs. Simulation studies demonstrate LevSeq’s ability to accurately detect variants under various experimental conditions. Lastly, we show LevSeq’s utility in engineering protoglobins for new-to-nature chemistry. Widespread adoption of LevSeq and sharing of the data will enhance our understanding of protein sequence-function landscapes and empower data-driven directed evolution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical data analysis of x-ray spectroscopy data enabled by neural network accelerated Bayesian inference

Bayesian inference applied to x-ray spectroscopy data analysis enables uncertainty quantification necessary to rigorously test theoretical models. However, when comparing to data, detailed atomic physics and radiation transfer calculations of x-ray emission from non-uniform plasma conditions are typically too slow to be performed in line with statistical sampling methods, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Furthermore, differences in transition energies and x-ray opacities often make direct comparisons between simulated and measured spectra unreliable. Here, we present a spectral decomposition method that allows for corrections to line positions and bound–bound opacities to best fit experimental data, with the goal of providing quantitative feedback to improve the underlying theoretical models and guide future experiments. In this work, we use a neural network (NN) surrogate model to replace spectral calculations of isobaric hot-spots created in Kr-doped implosions at the National Ignition Facility. The NN was trained on calculations of x-ray spectra using an isobaric hot-spot model post-processed with Cretin, a multi-species atomic kinetics and radiation code. The speedup provided by the NN model to generate x-ray emission spectra enables statistical analysis of parameterized models with sufficient detail to accurately represent the physical system and extract the plasma parameters of interest.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hybrid Modeling of Three-Phase Grid-Supporting Inverters for Dynamic Studies

Grid technologies connected by power electronic converter (PEC) interfaces continually implement grid support functions mandated by grid codes and standards. The transition to converter-based generation demands precise PEC models to assess system dynamics, which have been previously overlooked in conventional power systems. This study proposes a hybrid method for analyzing grid-connected three-phase PEC dynamics with the IEEE standard 1547-2018 Volt-VAr mode that combines physics and data-driven techniques. The physics model reflects the PEC’s internal behavior, whereas the data-driven modeling technique evaluates the grid-supporting capabilities of the smart PEC. The system identification approach is used to generate dynamic PEC models based on changing grid voltage and measured current injected into the grid by the PEC. In the Volt-VAr support mode, a detailed topological model including switches is utilized to compare the goodness-of-fit of the extracted hybrid dynamic model. The results demonstrate that the hybrid PEC model in the Volt-VAr mode accurately matches the dynamics with the topological model.

Subedi, Sunil↗
DOE OSTI2026

Observation of spin‑wave altermagnetic splitting in MnF2

-Contents of the Data Repository: - Polarized neutron diffraction data acquired in the (HK0) scattering plane. - Inelastic neutron scattering (INS) data from both unpolarized and polarized measurements with an incident neutron energy of Ei =9 meV.- - Reduced multidimensional single-crystal datasets (MDE) and corresponding S(Q,ω) slices used to generate all figures presented in the manuscript. - Julia source code and supporting input files used for spin-wave calculations, model fitting, and simulation of neutron scattering intensity maps.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

drought↗