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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Formation of a constructed microbial community in a nutrient-rich environment indicates bacterial interspecific competition

ABSTRACT Understanding the organizational principles of microbial communities is essential for interpreting ecosystem stability. Previous studies have investigated the formation of bacterial communities under nutrient-poor conditions or obligate relationships to observe cooperative interactions among different species. How microorganisms form stabilized communities in nutrient-rich environments, without obligate metabolic interdependency for growth, is still not fully disclosed. In this study, three bacterial strains isolated from the Populus deltoides rhizosphere were co-cultured in complex medium, and their growth behavior was tracked. These strains co-exist in mixed culture over serial transfer for multiple growth-dilution cycles. Competition is proposed as an emergent interaction relationship among the three bacteria based on their significantly decreased growth levels. The effects of different initial inoculum ratios, up to three orders of magnitude, on community structure were investigated, and the final compositions of the mixed communities with various starting composition indicate that community structure is not dependent on the initial inoculum ratio. Furthermore, the competitive relationships within the community were not altered by different initial inoculum ratios. The community structure was simulated by generalized Lotka-Volterra and dynamic flux balance analysis to provide mechanistic predictions into emergence of community structure under a nutrient-rich environment. Metaproteomic analyses provide support for the metabolite exchanges predicted by computational modeling and for highly altered physiologies when microbes are grown in co-culture. These findings broaden our understanding of bacterial community dynamics and metabolic diversity in higher-order interactions and could be significant in the management of rhizospheric bacterial communities. IMPORTANCE Bacteria naturally co-exist in multispecies consortia, and the ability to engineer such systems can be useful in biotechnology. Despite this, few studies have been performed to understand how bacteria form a stable community and interact with each other under nutrient-rich conditions. In this study, we investigated the effects of initial inoculum ratios on bacterial community structure using a complex medium and found that the initial inoculum ratio has no significant impact on resultant community structure or on interaction patterns between community members. The microbial population profiles were simulated using computational tools in order to understand intermicrobial relationships and to identify potential metabolic exchanges that occur during stabilization of the bacterial community. Studying microbial community assembly processes is essential for understanding fundamental ecological principles in microbial ecosystems and can be critical in predicting microbial community structure and function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A 2-million-year-old ecosystem in Greenland uncovered by environmental DNA

Late Pliocene and Early Pleistocene epochs 3.6 to 0.8 million years ago had climates resembling those forecasted under future warming. Palaeoclimatic records show strong polar amplification with mean annual temperatures of 11–19 °C above contemporary values. The biological communities inhabiting the Arctic during this time remain poorly known because fossils are rare. Here we report an ancient environmental DNA (eDNA) record describing the rich plant and animal assemblages of the Kap København Formation in North Greenland, dated to around two million years ago. The record shows an open boreal forest ecosystem with mixed vegetation of poplar, birch and thuja trees, as well as a variety of Arctic and boreal shrubs and herbs, many of which had not previously been detected at the site from macrofossil and pollen records. The DNA record confirms the presence of hare and mitochondrial DNA from animals including mastodons, reindeer, rodents and geese, all ancestral to their present-day and late Pleistocene relatives. The presence of marine species including horseshoe crab and green algae support a warmer climate than today. The reconstructed ecosystem has no modern analogue. The survival of such ancient eDNA probably relates to its binding to mineral surfaces. Our findings open new areas of genetic research, demonstrating that it is possible to track the ecology and evolution of biological communities from two million years ago using ancient eDNA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Metabolic model-based ecological modeling for probiotic design

The microbial community composition in the human gut has a profound effect on human health. This observation has lead to extensive use of microbiome therapies, including over-the-counter ‘probiotic’ treatments intended to alter the composition of the microbiome. Despite so much promise and commercial interest, the factors that contribute to the success or failure of microbiome-targeted treatments remain unclear. We investigate the biotic interactions that lead to successful engraftment of a novel bacterial strain introduced to the microbiome as in probiotic treatments. We use pairwise genome-scale metabolic modeling with a generalized resource allocation constraint to build a network of interactions between taxa that appear in an experimental engraftment study. We create induced sub-graphs using the taxa present in individual samples and assess the likelihood of invader engraftment based on network structure. To do so, we use a generalized Lotka-Volterra model, which we show has strong ability to predict if a particular invader or probiotic will successfully engraft into an individual’s microbiome. Furthermore, we show that the mechanistic nature of the model is useful for revealing which microbe-microbe interactions potentially drive engraftment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Biosphere Futures: a database of social-ecological scenarios

T. Biosphere Futures (https://biospherefutures.net/) is a new online database to collect and discover scenario studies from across the world, with a specific focus on scenarios that explicitly incorporate interdependencies between humans and their supporting ecosystems. It provides access to a globally diverse collection of case studies that includes most ecosystems and regions, enabling exploration of the multifaceted ways in which the future might unfold. Together, the case studies illuminate the diversity and plurality of people’s expectations and aspirations for the future. The objective of Biosphere Futures is to promote the use of scenarios for sustainable development of the biosphere and to foster a community of practice around social-ecological scenarios. We do so by facilitating the assessment, synthesis, and comparative analysis of scenario case studies, pointing to relevant resources, and by helping practitioners and researchers to disseminate and showcase their own work. This article begins by outlining the rationale behind the creation of the database, followed by an introduction to its functionality and the criteria employed for selecting case studies. Subsequently, we present a synthesis of the first 100 case studies included in the scenarios database, highlighting emerging patterns and identifying potential avenues for further research. Finally, given that broader utilization and contributions to the database will enhance the achievement of Biosphere Futures’ objectives, we invite the creators of social-ecological scenarios to contribute additional case studies. By expanding the database’s breadth and depth, we can collectively foster a more nuanced understanding of the possible trajectories of our biosphere and enable better decision making for sustainable development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Life history strategies among soil bacteria—dichotomy for few, continuum for many

Abstract Study of life history strategies may help predict the performance of microorganisms in nature by organizing the complexity of microbial communities into groups of organisms with similar strategies. Here, we tested the extent that one common application of life history theory, the copiotroph-oligotroph framework, could predict the relative population growth rate of bacterial taxa in soils from four different ecosystems. We measured the change of in situ relative growth rate to added glucose and ammonium using both 18O–H2O and 13C quantitative stable isotope probing to test whether bacterial taxa sorted into copiotrophic and oligotrophic groups. We saw considerable overlap in nutrient responses across most bacteria regardless of phyla, with many taxa growing slowly and few taxa that grew quickly. To define plausible life history boundaries based on in situ relative growth rates, we applied Gaussian mixture models to organisms’ joint 18O–13C signatures and found that across experimental replicates, few taxa could consistently be assigned as copiotrophs, despite their potential for fast growth. When life history classifications were assigned based on average relative growth rate at varying taxonomic levels, finer resolutions (e.g., genus level) were significantly more effective in capturing changes in nutrient response than broad taxonomic resolution (e.g., phylum level). Our results demonstrate the difficulty in generalizing bacterial life history strategies to broad lineages, and even to single organisms across a range of soils and experimental conditions. We conclude that there is a continued need for the direct measurement of microbial communities in soil to advance ecologically realistic frameworks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward a coordinated understanding of hydro‐biogeochemical root functions in tropical forests for application in vegetation models

Summary Tropical forest root characteristics and resource acquisition strategies are underrepresented in vegetation and global models, hampering the prediction of forest–climate feedbacks for these carbon‐rich ecosystems. Lowland tropical forests often have globally unique combinations of high taxonomic and functional biodiversity, rainfall seasonality, and strongly weathered infertile soils, giving rise to distinct patterns in root traits and functions compared with higher latitude ecosystems. We provide a roadmap for integrating recent advances in our understanding of tropical forest belowground function into vegetation models, focusing on water and nutrient acquisition. We offer comparisons of recent advances in empirical and model understanding of root characteristics that represent important functional processes in tropical forests. We focus on: (1) fine‐root strategies for soil resource exploration, (2) coupling and trade‐offs in fine‐root water vs nutrient acquisition, and (3) aboveground–belowground linkages in plant resource acquisition and use. We suggest avenues for representing these extremely diverse plant communities in computationally manageable and ecologically meaningful groups in models for linked aboveground–belowground hydro‐nutrient functions. Tropical forests are undergoing warming, shifting rainfall regimes, and exacerbation of soil nutrient scarcity caused by elevated atmospheric CO 2 . The accurate model representation of tropical forest functions is crucial for understanding the interactions of this biome with the climate.

Plant Sciences↗
NASA NTRS2000

Pythium invasion of plant-based life support systems: biological control and sources

Invasion of plant-based life support systems by plant pathogens could cause plant disease and disruption of life support capability. Root rot caused by the fungus, Pythium, was observed during tests of prototype plant growth systems containing wheat at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). We conducted experiments to determine if the presence of complex microbial communities in the plant root zone (rhizosphere) resisted invasion by the Pythium species isolated from the wheat root. Rhizosphere inocula of different complexity (as assayed by community-level physiological profile: CLPP) were developed using a dilution/extinction approach, followed by growth in hydroponic rhizosphere. Pythium growth on wheat roots and concomitant decreases in plant growth were inversely related to the complexity of the inocula during 20-day experiments in static hydroponic systems. Pythium was found on the seeds of several different wheat cultivars used in controlled environmental studies, but it is unclear if the seed-borne fungal strain(s) were identical to the pathogenic strain recovered from the KSC studies. Attempts to control pathogens and their effects in hydroponic life support systems should include early inoculation with complex microbial communities, which is consistent with ecological theory.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗
NASA NTRS2015

Sea Ice Outlook for September 2015 June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

The recent decline in perennial sea ice cover in Arctic Ocean is a topic of enormous scientific interest and has relevance to a broad variety of scientific disciplines and human endeavors including biological and physical oceanography, atmospheric circulation, high latitude ecology, the sustainability of indigenous communities, commerce, and resource exploration. A credible seasonal prediction of sea ice extent would be of substantial use to many of the stakeholders in these fields and may also reveal details on the physical processes that result in the current trends in the ice cover. Forecasts are challenging due in part to limitations in the polar observing network, the large variability in the climate system, and an incomplete knowledge of the significant processes. Nevertheless it is a useful to understand the current capabilities of high latitude seasonal forecasting and identify areas where such forecasts may be improved. Since 2008 the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States (ARCUS) has conducted a seasonal forecasting contest in which the average Arctic sea ice extent for the month of September (the month of the annual extent minimum) is predicted from available forecasts in early June, July, and August. The competition is known as the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) but recently came under the auspices of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), and multi-agency funded project to evaluate the SIO. The forecasts are submitted based on modeling, statistical, and heuristic methods. Forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent from the GMAO are derived from seasonal prediction system of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS 5) coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). The projections are made in order to understand the relative skill of the forecasting system and to determine the effects of future improvements to the system. This years prediction is for a September average Arctic ice extent of 5.030.41 million km2.

SIPN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ecological and genomic responses of soil microbiomes to high-severity wildfire: linking community assembly to functional potential

Increasing wildfire severity, which is common throughout the western United States, can have deleterious effects on plant regeneration and large impacts on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling rates. Soil microbes are pivotal in facilitating these elemental cycles, so understanding the impact of increasing fire severity on soil microbial communities is critical. Here, we assess the long-term impact of high-severity fires on the soil microbiome. We find that high-severity wildfires result in a multi-decadal (>25 y) recovery of the soil microbiome mediated by concomitant differences in aboveground vegetation, soil chemistry, and microbial assembly processes. Our results depict a distinct taxonomic and functional successional pattern of increasing selection in post-fire soil microbial communities. Changes in microbiome composition corresponded with changes in microbial functional potential, specifically altered C metabolism and enhanced N cycling potential, which related to rates of potential decomposition and inorganic N availability, respectively. Based on metagenome-assembled genomes, we show that bacterial genomes enriched in our earliest site (4 y since fire) harbor distinct traits such as a robust stress response and a high potential to degrade pyrogenic, polyaromatic C that allow them to thrive in post-fire environments. Taken together, these results provide a biological basis for previously reported process rate measurements and explain the temporal dynamics of post-fire biogeochemistry, which ultimately constrains ecosystem recovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ecological stoichiometry as a foundation for omics-enabled biogeochemical models of soil organic matter decomposition

Coupled biogeochemical cycles drive ecosystem ecology by influencing individual-to-community scale behaviors; yet the development of process-based models that accurately capture these dynamics remains elusive. Soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition in particular is influenced by resource stoichiometry that dictates microbial nutrient acquisition (‘ecological stoichiometry’). Despite its basis in biogeochemical modeling, ecological stoichiometry is only implicitly considered in high-resolution microbial investigations and the metabolic models they inform. State-of-science SOM decomposition models in both fields have advanced largely separately, but they agree on a need to move beyond seminal pool-based models. This presents an opportunity and a challenge to maximize the strengths of various models across different scales and environmental contexts. To address this challenge, we contend that ecological stoichiometry provides a framework for merging biogeochemical and microbiological models, as both explicitly consider substrate chemistries that are the basis of ecological stoichiometry as applied to SOM decomposition. We highlight two gaps that limit our understanding of SOM decomposition: (1) understanding how individual microorganisms alter metabolic strategies in response to substrate stoichiometry and (2) translating this knowledge to the scale of biogeochemical models. We suggest iterative information exchange to refine the objectives of high-resolution investigations and to specify limited dynamics for representation in large-scale models, resulting in a new class of omics-enabled biogeochemical models. Assimilating theoretical and modelling frameworks from different scientific domains is the next frontier in SOM decomposition modelling; advancing technologies in the context of stoichiometric theory provides a consistent framework for interpreting molecular data, and further distilling this information into tractable SOM decomposition models.

Carbon cycling↗
DOE OSTI2020

Avocado_Bark_Diversity

Bark is a permanent surface for microbial colonization at the interface of trees and the surrounding air. However, little is known about the microbial communities harbored on these tissues. Studies on bark microbial ecology show a dominance of bacteria from a few phyla. Bark microbial communities of avocado (Persea americana) could have implications for tree health, as a first barrier for defense against certain pests and diseases in this economically important species. We used shotgun metagenomic sequencing to analyze the bark microbial communities of avocado trees from two orchards, and compared one of them to rhizospheric soil. Our results show that the microbial communities of avocado bark have a well-defined taxonomic structure, with consistent patterns of abundance of bacteria, fungi and archaea, even in trees from two different locations. Bacteria in avocado bark were dominated by Proteobacteria (particularly Alphaproteobacteria), Actinobacteria and Bacteroidetes, consistently with bark communities in other trees. Fungal members were dominated by Ascomycota and Basidiomycota, while most Archaea in bark were Euryarchaeota. We can conclude that avocado bark is a well-defined environment, providing niches for specific taxonomic groups. The present in-depth characterization of bark microbial communities can form a basis for their future manipulation for agronomical purposes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Inter-Kingdom Viral Interactions

Please cite as : Josué A. Rodríguez-Ramos, Amy E. Zimmerman, Ruonan Wu, Sheryl Bell, Trinidad Alfaro, Kirsten Hofmockel, William C. Nelson. 2025. Inter-Kingdom Viral Interactions. [Data Set] PNNL DataHub. This data is published under a CC0 license. The authors encourage data reuse and request attribution by referencing the above citations for the data package and associated manuscript. Deciphering viral ecology in soils is challenging due to their high physiochemical and community complexity. To enhance detection of sub-communities of DNA and RNA viruses, we applied fractionation approaches to soils collected across a moisture gradient from a grassland field experiment. Analyses included metagenomics and metatranscriptomics of size-fractionated extracellular viruses (i.e., DNA and RNA viromes), metagenomics of bacteria/archaea- or eukaryote-enriched samples, and whole soil metatranscriptomes with rRNA-depletion or polyadenylation enrichment. While RNA virome and whole soil RNA methods captured similar viral diversity, RNA viromes identified longer, higher-quality genomes. Further, we showed that significantly more DNA viruses were active in higher moisture than lower moisture samples, whereas responses by overall diversity vary by genome type (DNA versus RNA genomes). Finally, we demonstrate the power of fractionation approaches for identifying distinct viral communities that infect unique hosts, which has significant implications for ecological investigations, particularly related to interkingdom interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Highly diverse and unknown viruses may enhance Antarctic endoliths’ adaptability

Abstract Background Rock-dwelling microorganisms are key players in ecosystem functioning of Antarctic ice free-areas. Yet, little is known about their diversity and ecology, and further still, viruses in these communities have been largely unexplored despite important roles related to host metabolism and nutrient cycling. To begin to address this, we present a large-scale viral catalog from Antarctic rock microbial communities. Results We performed metagenomic analyses on rocks from across Antarctica representing a broad range of environmental and spatial conditions, and which resulted in a predicted viral catalog comprising > 75,000 viral operational taxonomic units (vOTUS). We found largely undescribed, highly diverse and spatially structured virus communities which had predicted auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs) with functions indicating that they may be potentially influencing bacterial adaptation and biogeochemistry. Conclusion This catalog lays the foundation for expanding knowledge of virosphere diversity, function, spatial ecology, and dynamics in extreme environments. This work serves as a step towards exploring adaptability of microbial communities in the face of a changing climate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of shrub willow buffers strategically integrated in an Illinois corn-soybean field on soil health and microbial community composition

We report soil serves many important ecological functions and is an integral part of our existence as a society. However, concerns for soil health are growing globally, in part due to the negative impacts of agricultural management on soil resources. The production of perennial bioenergy crops on marginal land in row-crop production systems is one solution that could improve land-use efficiency and address the sustainability of cropland management. Because the relationship between crop management and the environment is complex, more research is needed to evaluate the potential benefits perennial bioenergy crop production has on soil health, as well as other ecosystem services. In this study, shrub willow buffers were strategically integrated into a corn-soybean cropping system with the main objective of reducing nitrate-N leaching from grain crop production while producing biomass for bioenergy. Two buffer systems (defined by landscape positions) were included for comparison, one on marginal land with exposure to nitrate-N leaching from upslope grain (southern plots) and one on fertile soils with less nitrate-N leaching potential (northern plots). Evaluation of soil (chemistry, bulk density, microbial community) and shrub willow vegetation properties ( fine roots, leaf litter decomposition, and nutrient uptake dynamics), showed that landscape position plays an important role in (1) the dynamics of soil chemical properties, (2) shrub willow's influence and productivity, and (3) the provision of additional ecosystem services such as reductions in nitrous oxide emissions and nitrate-N leaching. In addition, the combination of crop type and landscape position (N-grain, N-willow, S-grain, and S-willow) influenced the species composition of the soil microbial community, resulting in unique and identifiable communities. These results highlight the potential application of shrub willow buffers for ecosystem service provision and support of ecosystem processes; however, understanding the relationship between the microbial community, crop type, and landscape is important for understanding the sustainability of the design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Host phylogeny matters: Examining sources of variation in infection risk by blood parasites across a tropical montane bird community in India

Abstract Background Identifying patterns and drivers of infection risk among host communities is crucial to elucidate disease dynamics and predict infectious disease risk in wildlife populations. Blood parasites of the genera Plasmodium and Haemoproteus are a diverse group of vector-borne protozoan parasites that affect bird populations globally. Despite their widespread distribution and exceptional diversity, factors underlying haemosporidian infection risk in wild bird communities remain poorly understood. While some studies have examined variation in avian haemosporidian risk, researchers have primarily focused on host ecological traits without considering host phylogenetic relationships. In this study, we employ a phylogenetically informed approach to examine the association between host ecological traits and haemosporidian infection risk in endemic bird communities in the Western Ghats Sky Islands. Methods We used parasite sequence data based on partial mitochondrial cytochrome b gene, that was amplified from genomic DNA extracted from 1177 birds (28 species) across the Western Ghats to assess infection of birds with haemosporidian parasites. We employed a Bayesian phylogenetic mixed effect modelling approach to test whether haemosporidian infection risk was affected by seven species-specific and four individual-level ecological predictors. We also examined the effect of host phylogenetic relationships on the observed patterns of variation in haemosporidian infection risk by estimating phylogenetic signal. Results Our study shows that host ecological traits and host phylogeny differentially influence infection risk by Plasmodium (generalist parasite) and Haemoproteus (specialist parasite). For Plasmodium , we found that sociality, sexual dimorphism and foraging strata were important ecological predictors. For Haemoproteus , patterns of infection risk among host species were associated with sociality, species elevation and individual body condition. Interestingly, variance in infection risk explained by host phylogeny was higher for Haemoproteus parasites compared to Plasmodium . Conclusions Our study highlights that while host ecological traits promoting parasite exposure and host susceptibility are important determinants of infection risk, host phylogeny also contributes substantially to predicting patterns of haemosporidian infection risk in multi-host communities. Importantly, infection risk is driven by joint contributions of host ecology and host phylogeny and studying these effects together could increase our ability to better understand the drivers of infection risk and predict future disease threats. Graphical abstract

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

Using AVIRIS images to measure temporal trends in abundance of photosynthetic and nonphotosynthetic canopy components

The Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve, Stanford, California is a good example of hardwood rangeland ecosystems in California. Structurally, it is composed of a mosaic of serpentine grasslands, oak savannah, coastal chaparral, and mixed evergreen woodland, representing a broad cross-section of physiognomic classes. The Mediterranean climate produces an extended seasonal drought lasting throughout most of the growing season and has significant impact on the expression of divergent phenological patterns related to contrasting ecological strategies of these taxa. The region is well understood biologically due to the rich history of ecological research at the site. Thus, community characteristics, physiological characteristics, phenology, and temporal dynamics are reasonably well understood for many of the dominant species. Because of its proximity to NASA Ames Research Center, it has been subject to a large number of aircraft data acquisitions over many years. A more complete examination of this database would provide an opportunity to test current remote sensing hypotheses for measurement and detection of ecological attributes, particularly those involving canopy chemistry and physiology. Better definition of ecological rules might permit development of remotely sensed surrogate variables for biological properties that cannot be directly measured or measured with sufficient accuracy.

Ustin, Susan L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ecological insights into soil health according to the genomic traits and environment-wide associations of bacteria in agricultural soils

Abstract Soil microbiomes are sensitive to current and previous soil conditions, and bacterial ‘bioindicators’ of biological, physical, and chemical soil properties have considerable potential for soil health assessment. However, the lack of ecological or physiological information for most soil microorganisms limits our ability to interpret the associations of bioindicators and, thus, their utility for guiding management. We identified bioindicators of tillage intensity and twelve soil properties used to rate soil health using a 16S rRNA gene-based survey of farmland across North America. We then inferred the genomic traits of bioindicators and evaluated their environment-wide associations (EWAS) with respect to agricultural management practice, disturbance, and plant associations with 89 studies from agroecosystems. Most bioindicators were either positively correlated with biological properties (e.g., organic matter) or negatively correlated with physical and chemical properties. Higher soil health ratings corresponded with smaller genome size and higher coding density, while lower ratings corresponded with larger genomes and higher rrn copy number. Community-weighted genome size explained most variation in health ratings. EWAS linked prominent bioindicators with the impacts of environmental disturbances. Our findings provide ecological insights into bioindicators of soil properties relevant to soil health management, illustrating the tight coupling of microbiome and soil function.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting spring phenology in deciduous broadleaf forests: NEON phenology forecasting community challenge

Accurate models are important to predict how global climate change will continue to alter plant phenology and near-term ecological forecasts can be used to iteratively improve models and evaluate predictions that are made a priori. The Ecological Forecasting Initiative's National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Forecasting Challenge, is an open challenge to the community to forecast daily greenness values, measured through digital images collected by the PhenoCam Network at NEON sites before the data are collected. For the first round of the challenge, which is presented here, we forecasted canopy greenness throughout the spring at eight deciduous broadleaf sites to investigate when, where, and for what model type phenology forecast skill is highest. A total of 192,536 predictions were submitted, representing eighteen models, including a persistence and a day of year mean null models. We found that overall forecast skill was highest when forecasting earlier in the greenup curve compared to the end, for shorter lead times, for sites that greened up earlier, and when submitting forecasts during times other than near budburst. The models based on day of year historical mean had the highest predictive skill across the challenge period. In this first round of the challenge, by synthesizing across forecasts, we started to elucidate what factors affect the predictive skill of near-term phenology forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗