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At least 199 records · Page 11

Hybrid Modeling for Complex Systems Health Management

The research work presents application of hybrid physics-informed machine learning to a representative electric powertrain for unmanned aerial vehicles. The model is composed of physics-derived and empirical equations, integrated with connected networks that are strategically placed within the model to substitute equations that are subject to large uncertainty. Polynomial fit driven by heuristics or empirical observations can be substituted by more flexible networks that can minimize the error between model predictions and observations without being restricted to a predefined functional form. This modeling strategy allows training of networks deep inside the model and unknown parameters in a single learning stage. The powertrain model consists of Li-ion batteries, electronic speed controller with pulse-width modulation, and brush-less DC motor with connected propeller. Results obtained from combination of laboratory and simulation tests are discussed in this work.

PINNS↗

Innovative Solutions To Solve Complex Radioactive Waste Management Problems In The U.S. - 2017 Richard S. Hodes, M.D. Honor Lecture Award - 17609

Ever since Wilhelm Roentgen, Henri Becquerel, and Marie Curie discovered x-rays, radioactivity, and radium, respectively, at the turn of the nineteenth century, nuclear technologies have continued to evolve and significantly enrich the quality of life for mankind. The evolution of such technologies has enabled our society to diagnose medical illnesses without the need for invasive surgeries, treat cancers, conduct research, develop new kinds of pharmaceuticals, preserve our food supply, and generate over 20% of our nation's electricity from commercial nuclear power plants. While these life-changing technologies have significantly enriched our quality of life and advanced our understanding of the sciences, they also generate radioactive waste that must be managed responsibly in a manner that protects public health. Over the past several decades, decision makers have developed a patchwork of policies to safely manage radioactive wastes-policies that are not necessarily based on the risk posed to public health, but more often on the origins of the waste and the manner in which they are defined in federal legislation. However, in the past several years, much progress has been made to better risk-inform the practices of managing Low-Level Radioactive Waste (LLW) in the United States. In 2012, the nation's first regional commercial facility for disposing of Class A, B, and C LLW since the U.S. Congress enacted the Low-Level Radioactive Waste Policy Act of 1980, as amended in 1985, was opened in Andrews County, Texas. Since then, other innovative LLW management solutions have emerged, ranging from cost-effective disposal options for wastes with very low levels of radioactivity to depleted uranium, and perhaps ultimately, for waste exceeding the concentration-based limits for Class C LLW (i.e., Greater Than Class C LLW) as specified in Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), chap. 61.55. Most recently, a license application for a consolidated interim storage facility for Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) is currently under review by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Should the NRC approve the license application, SNF currently located at 12 shutdown and decommissioned nuclear reactors could be placed into interim storage in Texas. Approval of this license application would facilitate the complete decommissioning of nuclear power plants, returning them to green-fields, and allowing the local communities to re-purpose the lands for further economic development. Over the next decade, many of these waste management challenges that once seemed insurmountable may soon be transformed into a reality. As will be discussed at the award lecture, achieving such possibilities clearly aligns with the vision of creating innovative radioactive waste management solutions for our nation that were championed by the late physician and statesman, Dr. Richard S. Hodes. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Supervisory Algorithm for Autonomous Hemodynamic Management Systems

Future military conflicts will require new solutions to manage combat casualties. The use of automated medical systems can potentially address this need by streamlining and augmenting the delivery of medical care in both emergency and combat trauma environments. However, in many situations, these systems may need to operate in conjunction with other autonomous and semi-autonomous devices. Management of complex patients may require multiple automated systems operating simultaneously and potentially competing with each other. Supervisory controllers capable of harmonizing multiple closed-loop systems are thus essential before multiple automated medical systems can be deployed in managing complex medical situations. The objective for this study was to develop a Supervisory Algorithm for Casualty Management (SACM) that manages decisions and interplay between two automated systems designed for management of hemorrhage control and resuscitation: an automatic extremity tourniquet system and an adaptive resuscitation controller. SACM monitors the required physiological inputs for both systems and synchronizes each respective system as needed. We present a series of trauma experiments carried out in a physiologically relevant benchtop circulatory system in which SACM must recognize extremity or internal hemorrhage, activate the corresponding algorithm to apply a tourniquet, and then resuscitate back to the target pressure setpoint. SACM continues monitoring after the initial stabilization so that additional medical changes can be quickly identified and addressed, essential to extending automation algorithms past initial trauma resuscitation into extended monitoring. Overall, SACM is an important step in transitioning automated medical systems into emergency and combat trauma situations. Future work will address further interplay between these systems and integrate additional medical systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Model-based interface design for smart field-device integration

Operational complexity is ever-increasing for electric utilities that face challenges including integration of DERs, customer expectation of energy choices, the proliferation of non-utility-owned resources, new business models with energy service providers, and new technology with IT/OT convergence. To maintain and improve the quality of operations, planning, and decision-making in general, utilities need to manage and navigate the complexity. Managing complexity requires a modular, scalable, and flexible solution. Connecting large amounts of DERs and introducing new services requires increased grid control and evolving applications. In this paper, we show an approach utilizing model-based standardized interfaces that simplifies integration and deployment of new algorithms and smart field devices for interoperability across legacy or new systems. A modular design is presented for a reference implementation of widely used DNP3 and IEEE 2030.5 interfaces within an open-source, standards-based data integration platform for integration of smart field devices with independently developed, best-of-breed applications.

Model-driven development, system integration, smar↗

MAGE: Alleviating Uncertainty in Real-Time Decision-Making as a Function of Problem Complexity

In this paper, we discuss a critical aspect of uncertainty in the operation of complex systems, such as the future air traffic: the ability of agents in the system to arrive at satisfactory decisions and the attendant actions as a function of problem complexity. Intuitively, when the problem complexity is manageable, given an appropriate decision problem formulation and solution tools, an agent (computational or human) has no trouble arriving at a solution that yields good outcomes for the agent and the system. Growing problem complexity results in progressively larger computational problems that may yield suboptimal solutions or even be intractable within required time limits or at all. We propose a measurable representation of complexity in terms of problem tractability and quality of solutions. We also propose a computational scheme, MAGE (Monitor, Anticipate, Guide, Evolve), for detecting approaching transitions from efficient decision-making states to inefficient to unsafe ones, so that operations based on decision-making can be reconfigured to forestall unfavorable transitions, returning to efficient modes when complexity diminishes. Maintaining tractable complexity reduces the uncertainty in the outcomes of decision-making. We describe the general scheme, an outline of MAGE applied to managing airspace complexity, and initial examples of investigating the tractability of problem-solving schemes.

complexity management↗

Managing Multiple Tasks in Complex, Dynamic Environments

Sketchy planners are designed to achieve goals in realistically complex, time-pressured, and uncertain task environments. However, the ability to manage multiple, potentially interacting tasks in such environments requires extensions to the functionality these systems typically provide. This paper identifies a number of factors affecting how interacting tasks should be prioritized, interrupted, and resumed, and then describes a sketchy planner called APEX that takes account of these factors when managing multiple tasks.

Freed, Michael↗

Risk-Significant Adverse Condition Awareness Strengthens Assurance of Fault Management Systems

As spaceflight systems increase in complexity, Fault Management (FM) systems are ranked high in risk-based assessment of software criticality, emphasizing the importance of establishing highly competent domain expertise to provide assurance. Adverse conditions (ACs) and specific vulnerabilities encountered by safety- and mission-critical software systems have been identified through efforts to reduce the risk posture of software-intensive NASA missions. Acknowledgement of potential off-nominal conditions and analysis to determine software system resiliency are important aspects of hazard analysis and FM. A key component of assuring FM is an assessment of how well software addresses susceptibility to failure through consideration of ACs. Focus on significant risk predicted through experienced analysis conducted at the NASA Independent Verification Validation (IVV) Program enables the scoping of effective assurance strategies with regard to overall asset protection of complex spaceflight as well as ground systems. Research efforts sponsored by NASA's Office of Safety and Mission Assurance defined terminology, categorized data fields, and designed a baseline repository that centralizes and compiles a comprehensive listing of ACs and correlated data relevant across many NASA missions. This prototype tool helps projects improve analysis by tracking ACs and allowing queries based on project, mission type, domaincomponent, causal fault, and other key characteristics. Vulnerability in off-nominal situations, architectural design weaknesses, and unexpected or undesirable system behaviors in reaction to faults are curtailed with the awareness of ACs and risk-significant scenarios modeled for analysts through this database. Integration within the Enterprise Architecture at NASA IVV enables interfacing with other tools and datasets, technical support, and accessibility across the Agency. This paper discusses the development of an improved workflow process utilizing this database for adaptive, risk-informed FM assurance that critical software systems will safely and securely protect against faults and respond to ACs in order to achieve successful missions.

Fault management↗

Risk-Significant Adverse Condition Awareness Strengthens Assurance of Fault Management Systems

As spaceflight systems increase in complexity, Fault Management (FM) systems are ranked high in risk-based assessment of software criticality, emphasizing the importance of establishing highly competent domain expertise to provide assurance. Adverse conditions (ACs) and specific vulnerabilities encountered by safety- and mission-critical software systems have been identified through efforts to reduce the risk posture of software-intensive NASA missions. Acknowledgement of potential off-nominal conditions and analysis to determine software system resiliency are important aspects of hazard analysis and FM. A key component of assuring FM is an assessment of how well software addresses susceptibility to failure through consideration of ACs. Focus on significant risk predicted through experienced analysis conducted at the NASA Independent Verification & Validation (IV&V) Program enables the scoping of effective assurance strategies with regard to overall asset protection of complex spaceflight as well as ground systems. Research efforts sponsored by NASAs Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) defined terminology, categorized data fields, and designed a baseline repository that centralizes and compiles a comprehensive listing of ACs and correlated data relevant across many NASA missions. This prototype tool helps projects improve analysis by tracking ACs and allowing queries based on project, mission type, domain/component, causal fault, and other key characteristics. Vulnerability in off-nominal situations, architectural design weaknesses, and unexpected or undesirable system behaviors in reaction to faults are curtailed with the awareness of ACs and risk-significant scenarios modeled for analysts through this database. Integration within the Enterprise Architecture at NASA IV&V enables interfacing with other tools and datasets, technical support, and accessibility across the Agency. This paper discusses the development of an improved workflow process utilizing this database for adaptive, risk-informed FM assurance that critical software systems will safely and securely protect against faults and respond to ACs in order to achieve successful missions.

IV&V↗

Aspirations and common tensions: larger lessons from the third US national climate assessment

The Third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3) was produced by experts in response to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990. Based on lessons learned from previous domestic and international assessments, the NCA3 was designed to speak to a broad public and inform the concerns of policy- and decision-makers at different scales. The NCA3 was also intended to be the first step in an ongoing assessment process that would build the nation’s capacity to respond to climate change. This concluding paper draws larger lessons from the insights gained throughout the assessment process that are of significance to future US and international assessment designers. We bring attention to process and products delivered, communication and engagement efforts, and how they contributed to the sustained assessment. Based on areas where expectations were exceeded or not fully met, we address four common tensions that all assessment designers must confront and manage: between (1) core assessment ingredients (knowledge base, institutional set-up, principled process, and the people involved), (2) national scope and subnational adaptive management information needs, (3) scope, complexity, and manageability, and (4) deliberate evaluation and ongoing learning approaches. Managing these tensions, amidst the social and political contexts in which assessments are conducted, is critical to ensure that assessments are feasible and productive, while its outcomes are perceived as credible, salient, and legitimate.

Moser, Susanne C.↗

The Acquisition Process as a Vehicle for Enabling Knowledge Management in the Lifecycle of Complex Federal Systems

This white paper explores how to increase the success and operation of critical, complex, national systems by effectively capturing knowledge management requirements within the federal acquisition process. Although we focus on aerospace flight systems, the principles outlined within may have a general applicability to other critical federal systems as well. Fundamental design deficiencies in federal, mission-critical systems have contributed to recent, highly visible system failures, such as the V-22 Osprey and the Delta rocket family. These failures indicate that the current mechanisms for knowledge management and risk management are inadequate to meet the challenges imposed by the rising complexity of critical systems. Failures of aerospace system operations and vehicles may have been prevented or lessened through utilization of better knowledge management and information management techniques.

Stewart, Helen↗

Statistical Analysis of Complexity Generators for Cost Estimation

Predicting the cost of cutting edge new technologies involved with spacecraft hardware can be quite complicated. A new feature of the NASA Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM), called the Complexity Generator, is being developed to model the complexity factors that drive the cost of space hardware. This parametric approach is also designed to account for the differences in cost, based on factors that are unique to each system and subsystem. The cost driver categories included in this model are weight, inheritance from previous missions, technical complexity, and management factors. This paper explains the Complexity Generator framework, the statistical methods used to select the best model within this framework, and the procedures used to find the region of predictability and the prediction intervals for the cost of a mission.

Rowell, Ginger Holmes↗

Pedestal Hazard Abatement and Soil Removal Construction Completion Report for Launch Complex 34, Solid Waste Management Unit CC054, Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida

This Construction Completion Report summarizes the activities associated with implementation of an interim measure (IM) for hazard abatement of the Launch Pedestal and soil removal at Launch Complex 34 (LC34), Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida. The purpose of the hazard abatement IM was to mitigate any continuing source of contamination associated with residual paint on the Launch Pedestal that contained polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Sampling determined that residual PCB concerns were limited to the steel elements on the top-side of the Pedestal, which included the torus ring, feed pipe, down pipes, pipe straps and shields, remaining steel cover plates and bolts, and railing support steel. The IM also mitigated the potential spread of contamination to surrounding areas by removing fallen metal fragments from the concrete launch pad, as well as soil from trenches on the launch pad where PCB-containing paint chips may have accumulated prior to or during Pedestal hazard abatement activities.

Complex 34↗

A decision-theoretic approach to the display of information for time-critical decisions: The Vista project

We describe a collaborative research and development effort between the Palo Alto Laboratory of the Rockwell Science Center, Rockwell Space Operations Company, and the Propulsion Systems Section of NASA JSC to design computational tools that can manage the complexity of information displayed to human operators in high-stakes, time-critical decision contexts. We shall review an application from NASA Mission Control and describe how we integrated a probabilistic diagnostic model and a time-dependent utility model, with techniques for managing the complexity of computer displays. Then, we shall describe the behavior of VPROP, a system constructed to demonstrate promising display-management techniques. Finally, we shall describe our current research directions on the Vista 2 follow-on project.

Horvitz, Eric↗

BinaryCIF and CIFTools—Lightweight, efficient and extensible macromolecular data management

3D macromolecular structural data is growing ever more complex and plentiful in the wake of substantive advances in experimental and computational structure determination methods including macromolecular crystallography, cryo-electron microscopy, and integrative methods. Efficient means of working with 3D macromolecular structural data for archiving, analyses, and visualization are central to facilitating interoperability and reusability in compliance with the FAIR Principles. We address two challenges posed by growth in data size and complexity. First, data size is reduced by bespoke compression techniques. Second, complexity is managed through improved software tooling and fully leveraging available data dictionary schemas. To this end, we introduce BinaryCIF, a serialization of Crystallographic Information File (CIF) format files that maintains full compatibility to related data schemas, such as PDBx/mmCIF, while reducing file sizes by more than a factor of two versus gzip compressed CIF files. Moreover, for the largest structures, BinaryCIF provides even better compression—factor ten and four versus CIF files and gzipped CIF files, respectively. Herein, we describe CIFTools, a set of libraries in Java and TypeScript for generic and typed handling of CIF and BinaryCIF files. Together, BinaryCIF and CIFTools enable lightweight, efficient, and extensible handling of 3D macromolecular structural data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the complex influences of water management on hydrological drought characteristics in Texas

The state of Texas in the United States is highly susceptible to drought. Its major rivers are subject to extensive water management (WM) activities in order to sustain multisectoral water demands, particularly during drought conditions. However, the impact of WM on the propagation dynamics and characteristics of hydrological drought (HD) in Texas remains unclear. To fill this gap, this study quantifies the influence of WM across 32 streamflow gauges along the mainstems of seven major rivers in Texas by comparing a variety of drought metrics under natural and managed conditions. Notably, we leveraged an extensive, naturalized streamflow dataset constructed by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, paired with gauge observations of managed conditions. Results indicate that at the multi-decadal scale, WM significantly reduced HD frequency across all seven rivers and at 81% of the gauges analyzed. Additionally, it increased the response timescale of HD across Texas’ major rivers by a median of 2.5 months. Conversely, the average-event duration and severity increased in most locations. Temporal analysis reveals that the WM impact on HD varied seasonally, with attenuation effects during mid-summer and early fall and intensification effects during late winter and spring. Additionally, WM was found to greatly increase the spatial variability of HD characteristics across the region. These findings emphasize the complexity of WM effects on HD and the necessity for nuanced strategies in managing HD under WM influences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring Digital Transformation for NASA Nuclear Flight Safety

The U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA)’s Nuclear Flight Safety discipline is exploring opportunities to combine incremental advancements in many contributing areas in a way that produces a transformative change for how work is performed. More specifically, after providing some general NASA and space nuclear policy background, the authors will describe concepts and efforts that enable: (i) the use of objectives-d riven approaches (in concert with internal and external constraints) to establish a mission risk posture; (ii) the use of that risk posture in the planning process to risk-inform the selection of Safety and Mission Success (S&MS) methods and models; (iii) use of model-based and machine-assisted techniques to manage the complex and ponderous amount of information and interfaces that typify spaceflight efforts; (iv ) the means by which that infrastructure can directly feed an assurance case (including use of systems modelling language, ontological formulation, and semantic web technology) so as to address known weaknesses in our ability to communicate and manage that complexity; and (v) use of that case-assured framework to demonstrate that one did the adequate and sufficient S&MS work and that the S&MS work was done competently.

Donald Helton↗

PANORAMA: An approach to performance modeling and diagnosis of extreme-scale workflows

Here we report that computational science is well established as the third pillar of scientific discovery and is on par with experimentation and theory. However, as we move closer toward the ability to execute exascale calculations and process the ensuing extreme-scale amounts of data produced by both experiments and computations alike, the complexity of managing the compute and data analysis tasks has grown beyond the capabilities of domain scientists. Therefore, workflow management systems are absolutely necessary to ensure current and future scientific discoveries. A key research question for these workflow management systems concerns the performance optimization of complex calculation and data analysis tasks. The central contribution of this article is a description of the PANORAMA approach for modeling and diagnosing the run-time performance of complex scientific workflows. This approach integrates extreme-scale systems testbed experimentation, structured analytical modeling, and parallel systems simulation into a comprehensive workflow framework called Pegasus for understanding and improving the overall performance of complex scientific workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Jaynesian Analysis of Environmental Chemistry: Systems Model Component Integration via the Arctic Aquatic Carbon Cycle

Focal Areas: All three are touched upon from the OBER call. We will consider formal logical inference and entropic information analysis for sparse but intensive chemical measurements, as optimal drivers for managing process complexity. As a centerpiece for the discussion we take soil-to-sea organic structural evolution within the Arctic hydro-geochemosphere, assessing detrital negentropy then algorithmic greed to generate ranked, reduced mechanisms for system integration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗