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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11

Bottom-up design of actinide materials from molecular clusters: Demonstration of a general-purpose simulation capability leveraging machine-learned atomic potentials

Actinide thin-film coatings such as uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) play an important role in nuclear reactors and other mission-relevant applications, but realization of their potential requires a deep fundamental understanding of the chemical vapor deposition (CVD) processes used for their growth. The slow experimental progress can be attributed, in part, to the standard safety guidelines associated with handling uranium byproducts, which are often corrosive, toxic, and radioactive. Accurate simulation techniques, when used in concert with experiment, can improve laboratory safety, material durability, and deliverable timeframes. However, state-of-the-art computational methods are either insufficiently accurate or intractably expensive. To remedy this situation, in this project we suggested a machine-learning (ML) accelerated workflow for simulating molecular clustering toward deposition. As a benchmark test case, we considered molecular clustering in steam and assessed independent components of our workflow by comparing with measured thermodynamic properties of water. After analyzing each component individually and finding no fundamental barrier to realization of the workflow, we attempted to integrate the ML component, a Sandia-developed tool called FitSNAP. As this was the first application of FitSNAP to atoms and molecules in the gas phase at Sandia, the method required more fitting data than was originally anticipated. Systematic improvements were made by including in the fit data diatomic potentials, molecular single-bond-breaking curves, and symmetry-constrained intermolecular potentials. We concluded that our strategy provides a feasible pathway toward modeling CVD and related processes, but that extensive training data must be generated before it can be of practical use.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Improving the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation via a Surrogate‐Accelerated Multi‐Objective Optimization

Accurate simulation of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is challenging due to uncertainties in representing convectively generated gravity waves. We develop an end-to-end uncertainty quantification workflow that calibrates these gravity wave processes in E3SM for a realistic QBO. Central to our approach is a domain knowledge-informed, compressed representation of high-dimensional spatio-temporal wind fields. By employing a parsimonious statistical model that learns the fundamental frequency from complex observations, we extract interpretable and physically meaningful quantities capturing key attributes. Building on this, we train a probabilistic surrogate model that approximates the fundamental characteristics of the QBO as functions of critical physics parameters governing gravity wave generation. Leveraging the Karhunen–Loève decomposition, our surrogate efficiently represents these characteristics as a set of orthogonal features, capturing cross-correlations among multiple physics quantities evaluated at different pressure levels and enabling rapid surrogate-based inference at a fraction of the computational cost of full-scale simulations. Finally, we analyze the inverse problem using a multi-objective approach. Our study reveals a tension between amplitude and period that constrains the QBO representation, precluding a single optimal solution. To navigate this, we quantify the bi-criteria trade-off and generate a set of Pareto optimal parameter values that balance the conflicting objectives. This integrated workflow improves the fidelity of QBO simulations and offers a versatile template for uncertainty quantification in complex geophysical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Baseflow Identification via Explainable AI With Kolmogorov‐Arnold Networks

Abstract Hydrological models often involve constitutive laws that may not be optimal in every application. We propose to replace such laws with the Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KANs), a class of neural networks designed to identify symbolic expressions. We demonstrate KAN's potential on the problem of baseflow identification, a notoriously challenging task plagued by significant uncertainty. KAN‐derived functional dependencies of the baseflow components on the aridity index outperform their original counterparts; they demonstrate that water availability, rather than potential evapotranspiration, drives baseflow by constraining actual evapotranspiration under arid conditions. On a test set, they increase the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) by 65%, decrease the root mean squared error by 29%, and increase the Kling‐Gupta efficiency by 34%. This superior performance is achieved while reducing the number of fitting parameters from three to two. Next, we use data from 378 catchments across the continental United States to refine the water‐balance equation at the mean‐annual scale. The KAN‐derived equations based on the refined water balance outperform both the current aridity index model, with up to a 105% increase in NSE, and the KAN‐derived equations based on the original water balance. While the performance of our model and tree‐based machine learning methods is similar, KANs offer the advantage of simplicity and transparency and require no specific software or computational tools. This case study focuses on the aridity index formulation, but the approach is flexible and transferable to other hydrological processes. Plain Language Summary Equations used in hydrologic model are often suboptimal, resulting in reduced prediction accuracy and efficiency. We implemented Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KAN), a machine learning algorithm for deriving symbolic formulations, to estimate groundwater recharge and showed that it outperforms an existing state‐of‐the‐art semi‐empirical formulation. In hydrology, Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and Kling‐Gupta efficiency (KGE) are commonly used to evaluate model performance. Higher NSE and KGE values indicate better performance, while lower RMSE values are preferable. Our results show that NSE increased by 71%, RMSE decreased by 32%, and KGE improved by 25%. In addition, KAN identifies an optimal functional form and can be used to derive new analytical formulas using the prior knowledge. The KAN‐inspired equation outperformed the original formulation and reduced the fitting parameters. Furthermore, we refined the water‐balance equation at the mean‐annual scale and showed that, based on the new water‐balance equation, KAN can derive new formulations that are superior to the original aridity index formulations (up to 105% increase in NSE) and KAN‐derived equations based on the original water balance. These findings highlight the significant potential of KAN to advance the scientific understanding of a wide range of hydrologic processes. Key Points Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KANs) enhance interpretability of machine‐learned hydrological models KAN‐derived symbolic formulations outperform state‐of‐the‐art semi‐empirical aridity indices KAN‐identified functional form yields an analytical index with fewer fitting parameters and improved performance

baseflow↗

Barium stars as tracers of s -process nucleosynthesis in AGB stars

Barium (Ba) stars help to verify asymptotic giant branch (AGB) star nucleosynthesis models since they experienced pollution from an AGB binary companion and thus their spectra carry the signatures of the slow neutron capture process (s process). For a large number (180) of Ba stars, we searched for AGB stellar models that match the observed abundance patterns. We aim to uncover any systematic deviations of the sample abundances from the predictions of the nucleosynthesis models. We employed three machine learning algorithms as classifiers: a Random Forest method, developed for this work, and the two classifiers used in our previous study. Compared to that work, we also expanded our observational sample with 11 Ba stars available in the supersolar metallicity range. We studied the statistical behaviour of the different s-process elements in the observational sample to investigate if the AGB models systematically under- or overpredict the abundances observed in the Ba stars and show the results in the form of violin plots of the residuals between spectroscopic abundances and model predictions. We inspected the correlations between the observed [Fe/H], the s-process elemental abundances, and the residuals. We employed the [Zr/Fe] and [Nb/Fe] abundances as a thermometer to constrain the operational temperature that rules the production of these elements in the sample stars, assuming a steady-state s process. We also investigated the mass distribution of the identified polluter AGB stars and the behaviour of the δ parameter, which describes the fraction of accreted AGB material relative to the Ba star envelope. We find a significant trend in the residuals that implies an underproduction of the elements just after the first s-process peak (Nb, Mo, and Ru) in the models relative to the observations. This may originate from a neutron-capture process (e.g. the intermediate neutron-capture process, i process) not yet included in the AGB models of metallicity from solar to roughly 1/5 solar, corresponding to the range of the Ba stars. Correlations are found between the residuals of these peculiar elements, suggesting a common origin for the deviations from the models. In addition, there is a weak metallicity dependence of the residuals of these elements. The s-process temperatures derived with the [Zr/Fe] – [Nb/Fe] thermometer have an unrealistic value for the majority of our stars. The most likely explanation is that at least a fraction of these elements are not produced in a steady-state s process, and instead may be due to processes not included in the AGB models. The mass distribution of the identified models confirms that our sample of Ba stars was polluted by low-mass AGB stars (< 4 M ⊙ ). Most of the matching AGB models require low accreted mass, but a few systems with high accreted mass are needed to explain the observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Heterogeneous Multilayer Nanopores via Chemically Tuned Dielectric Breakdown for Single‐Molecule Sensing

Solid-state nanopores are powerful platforms for single-molecule sensing, yet their performance is often constrained by fabrication complexity, noise, and limited control over surface properties. Here we report a direct method to fabricate heterogeneous multilayer nanopores using chemically tuned controlled dielectric breakdown (CT-CDB). We integrate hBN, MoS 2 , or graphene atop a silicon nitride membrane to form five distinct bilayer and tri-layer architectures, with bare SiN x nanopore as a control. CT-CDB achieves pore formation reproducibly through material-stacks with high efficiency, good pore size control, and strong yield, validated by various characterizations. Transferrin protein translocation experiments, supported by simulations, reveal that multilayer configurations modulate protein conformations, ionic current blockade and dwell time distributions, reflecting combined effects of membrane type, interfacial chemistry, and local electric field gradients. A supervised machine learning framework is implemented to assist identifying multilayer structure effects embedded in signal signatures, with over 96% accuracy. This work presents a modular and scalable framework for functional nanopore engineering with complex structural integration, thereby expanding the potential of 2D materials in single-molecule sensing applications.

2D materials↗

Unified architecture for quantum lookup tables

Quantum access to arbitrary classical data encoded in unitary black-box oracles underlies interesting data-intensive quantum algorithms, such as machine learning or electronic structure simulation. The feasibility of these applications depends crucially on gate-efficient implementations of these oracles, which are commonly some reversible versions of the Boolean circuit for a classical lookup table. Here, we present a general parametrized architecture for quantum circuits implementing a lookup table that encompasses all prior work in realizing a continuum of optimal trade-offs between qubits, non-Clifford gates, and error resilience, up to logarithmic factors. Our architecture assumes only local 2D connectivity, yet recovers results, with the appropriate parameters, polylogarithmic error scaling. We also identify regimes, such as simultaneous sublinear scaling, in all parameters. These results enable tailoring implementations of the commonly used lookup table primitive to any given quantum device with constrained resources.

quantum circuits↗

Including Physics-Informed Atomization Constraints in Neural Networks for Reactive Chemistry

Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have emerged as powerful tools for investigating atomistic systems with high accuracy and a relatively low computational cost. However, a common and unaddressed challenge with many current neural network (NN) MLIP models is their limited ability to accurately predict the relative energies of systems containing isolated or nearly isolated atoms, which appear in various reactive processes. To address this limitation, we present a mathematical technique for modifying any existing atom-centered NN architecture to account for the energies of isolated atoms. The result produces a consistent prediction of the atomization energy (AE) of a system using minimal constraints on the model. Using this technique, we build a model architecture that we call hierarchically interacting particle neural network (HIP-NN)-AE, an AE-constrained version of the HIP-NN, as well as ANI-AE, the AE-constrained version of the accurate NN engine for molecular energies (ANI). Our results demonstrate AE consistency of AE-constrained models, which drastically improves the AE predictions for the models. We compare the AE-constrained approach to unconstrained models as well as models from the literature in other scenarios, such as bond dissociation energies, bond dissociation pathways, and extensibility tests. These results show that the constraints improve the model performance in some of these tasks and do not negatively affect the performance on any tasks. The AE constraint approach thus offers a robust solution to the challenges posed by isolated atoms in energy prediction tasks.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Lake-Effect Snowstorm Events and Associated Snowfall Totals Integrated from NOAA Storm Reports, ERA5, and HRRR for the Laurentian Great Lakes (1997–2024)

Lake-effect snowstorms are localized, impactful winter weather phenomena that can generate substantial snowfall totals and pose significant challenges for forecasting, transportation, and regional infrastructure. To support the analysis and modeling of these events, this dataset compiles observational reports of lake-effect snowstorms alongside corresponding snowfall estimates derived from gridded atmospheric datasets. The observational component of the data originates from the National Weather Service (NWS) winter storm report, subset to lake-effect snow event type, covering 1997–2024. For each lake-effect snow event, this data provides the impacted county, event start and end datetimes at an hourly resolution, as well as relevant storm narratives. The complementary reanalysis-derived data is sourced from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5 (ERA5) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) gridded data. For both gridded datasets, the maximum total snowfall (in units mm) was extracted, constrained by the county and datetimes specified by the observational report. ERA5 data covers the entire observational period (1997–2024), whereas HRRR data is only available from November 2016 – December 2024. Three CSV files are provided here: (1) the observational lake-effect snow event report, (2) ERA5 maximum snowfall detections for each event, and (3) HRRR maximum snowfall detections for each event. Relevant data from the observational files, such as impacted state and county, event datetimes, and event IDs, were included for convenience. Users can inspect and visualize the data using tools such as Microsoft Excel and Python pandas/matplotlib packages. This dataset may support a variety of applications, including climatological analyses of lake-effect snowfall, evaluation of snowfall representation in atmospheric datasets and numerical weather prediction models, and the development of machine learning approaches for detecting or predicting lake-effect snowfall events.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION > SOLID↗

A family portrait of lanmodulin selectivity for enhanced rare-earth separations

Proteins offer a molecular design space to create bespoke ligands for the separation of critical metals like rare earth elements (REs). However, data-intensive approaches to tune metalloprotein selectivity are constrained by the low-throughput nature of existing characterization methods. Here we invented an assay called ‘SpyTag-Catcher Immobilization of Lanmodulin for Assaying Metal-Binding Selectivity’ (SpyCI-LAMBS) to measure metalloprotein selectivity en masse. This 96-format workflow was used to study the selectivity of 621 lanmodulin (LanM) orthologs for 15 REs, revealing eight distinct selectivity profiles based on sequence-to-function analyses. We discovered >200 LanMs with stronger selectivity against low-value LaIII relative to the prototypical LanM. This includes a LanM that can perform a challenging one-stage separation of PrIII from LaIII with up to >99.9 mol% purity and 83% yield. SpyCI-LAMBS is a powerful tool that can rapidly collect high-fidelity selectivity data to inform metal ion separations and machine-learning-assisted metalloprotein design.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

FluxRETAP: a REaction TArget Prioritization genome-scale modeling technique for selecting genetic targets

MOTIVATION: Metabolic engineering is rapidly evolving as a result of new advances in synthetic biology tools and automation platforms that enable high throughput strain construction, as well as the development of machine learning tools (ML) for biology. However, selecting genetic engineering targets that effectively guide the metabolic engineering process is still challenging. ML can provide predictive power for synthetic biology, but current technical limitations prevent the independent use of ML approaches without previous biological knowledge. RESULTS: Here, we present FluxRETAP, a simple and computationally inexpensive method that leverages the prior mechanistic knowledge embedded in genome-scale models for suggesting targets for genetic overexpression, downregulation or deletion, with the final goal of increasing the production of a desired metabolite. This method can provide a list of desirable engineering targets that can be combined with current ML pipelines. FluxRETAP captured 100% of reaction targets experimentally verified to improve Escherichia coli isoprenol production, 50% of targets that experimentally improved taxadiene production in E. coli and ∼60% of genetic targets from a verified minimal constrained cut-set in Pseudomonas putida, while providing additional high priority targets that could be tested. Overall, FluxRETAP is an efficient algorithm for identifying a prioritized list of testable genetic and reaction targets. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: FluxRETAP is implemented in python and released under the creative commons license. The implementation and code are freely available at: https://github.com/JBEI/FluxRETAP.

Czajka, Jeffrey J↗

Cascading economic losses from port disruptions under capacity constrained multimodal freight networks

This study quantifies how throughput disruptions at major seaports cascade through capacity-constrained multimodal freight networks and interregional production systems. We couple an agent-based model (ABM) multimodal freight simulation that resolves rerouting, terminal queueing, and inventory drawdown under binding modal and facility capacities with a multiregional output loss input-output (MRIIM) model that propagates realized delivery shortfalls across regions and sectors. The framework is demonstrated for the Port of Los Angeles using Freight Analysis Framework flows and Bureau of Economic Analysis input-output accounts and is evaluated over a 52-week horizon under deterministic sector targeted shocks and stochastic disruption realizations with uncertain severity and duration. Results indicate nonlinear amplification: realized national losses concentrate in manufacturing and transportation/warehousing even when exogenous port shocks are dispersed, suggesting that congestion spillback and limited short-run substitution can dominate the initial shock allocation. We further evaluate a tabular reinforcement-learning (Q-learning) intervention layer that selects among a small set of implementable system level levers (truck-to-rail and truck-to-barge shift settings) without overriding shipper routing, finding that such interventions reduce total losses for moderate disruptions but yield diminishing returns once substitute modes approach capacity. By linking operational freight behavior to system wide impacts under uncertainty, the proposed ABM-MRIIM pipeline provides a reusable workflow for port disruption stress testing, identification of structurally critical sectors/corridors, and evaluation of resilience interventions under realistic capacity limits.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Flux REaction TArget Prioritization (Flux RETAP) v1

Metabolic engineering is evolving rapidly as a result of new advances in synthetic biology and automation, as well as the irruption of machine learning (ML). ML has been shown to provide the predictive power synthetic biology lacked and needed, and to be able to effectively guide the metabolic engineering process. However, current technical limitations prevent the independent application of ML approaches to metabolic engineering without the use of previous biological knowledge in the form of a prioritized list of desirable engineering targets. Here, we present FluxRETAP, a simple and computationally inexpensive method that leverages the prior mechanistic knowledge embedded in genome-scale metabolic models (GSMs) for suggesting targets for genetic overexpression, downregulation or deletion, with the final goal of increasing metabolite production. FluxRETAP captured 100% of reaction targets experimentally verified to improve Escherichia coli isoprenol production in the literature accessible to us, 50% of targets that experimentally improved taxadiene production in E. coli and ~60% of genetic targets from a verified minimal constrained cut-set in Pseudomonas putida while providing additional high priority targets that could be tested. Overall, FluxRETAP is an efficient algorithm for identifying a prioritized list of testable genetic and reaction targets which can also be utilized in ML pipelines.

Czajka, Jeffrey [Battelle Memorial Institute, Paci↗

Solid oxide electrolysis cell and stack testing best practices

Solid oxide electrolyzer (SOE) technology is an emerging method for hydrogen production, noted for its superior electrical efficiency. Despite the significant progress made in recent years, the broad development of SOE technology is often constrained by the necessary and extensive "skill of the craft" required to successfully test simple single cell test articles. This may be linked to the dearth of practical and pragmatic guidance within the literature for safe, reliable, and performant test equipment and test procedures. Researchers at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have been actively testing SOEs ranging from button cells to stacks up to 500 kW, in collaboration with industry and other national laboratories. Based on operational experience, INL has developed system design procedures that ensure safe and reliable operation of SOE systems with the level of support required for each test. This paper presents key aspects of SOE stack and system testing, including safe design procedures, balance of plant components design, and specific implementations at INL. Practical design details of reactants, heat, and power management are presented along with lessons learned from the SOE test facility operations at INL.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Resource-Adaptive Federated Text Generation with Differential Privacy

In cross-silo federated learning (FL), sensitive text datasets remain confined to local organizations due to privacy regulations, making repeated training for each downstream task both communication-intensive and privacy-demanding. A promising alternative is to generate differentially private (DP) synthetic datasets that approximate the global distribution and can be reused across tasks. However, pretrained large language models (LLMs) often fail under domain shift, and federated finetuning is hindered by computational heterogeneity: only resource-rich clients can update the model, while weaker clients are excluded, amplifying data skew and the adverse effects of DP noise. We propose a flexible participation framework that adapts to client capacities. Strong clients perform DP federated finetuning, while weak clients contribute through a lightweight DP voting mechanism that refines synthetic text. To ensure the synthetic data mirrors the global dataset, we apply control codes (e.g., labels, topics, metadata) that represent each client’s data proportions and constrain voting to semantically coherent subsets. This two-phase approach requires only a single round of communication for weak clients and integrates contributions from all participants. Experiments show that our framework improves distribution alignment and downstream robustness under DP and heterogeneity.

Wang, Jiayi [ORNL]↗

Engineering modular enzyme assembly: synthetic interface strategies for natural products biosynthesis applications

Covering: 2020 to 2025Natural products remain indispensable sources of therapeutic and bioactive compounds, yet traditional discovery strategies are constrained by compound rediscovery. Modular biosynthetic enzymes, such as type I polyketide synthases (PKSs) and type A non-ribosomal peptide synthetases (NRPSs), offer promising platforms for combinatorial biosynthesis owing to their programmable architectures. However, practical implementation is frequently limited by inter-modular incompatibility and domain-specific interactions. This review highlights recent advances in modular enzyme assembly enabled by synthetic interfaces-including cognate docking domains, synthetic coiled-coils, SpyTag/SpyCatcher, and split inteins-which function as orthogonal, standardized connectors to facilitate post-translational complex formation. These interfaces support rational investigations into substrate specificity, module compatibility, and pathway derivatization as well as general enzyme clustering applications beyond PKS and NRPS systems. Synthetic interfaces can be integrated with computational tools to support a more systematic and scalable framework for modular enzyme engineering by providing predictive insights into domain compatibility and interface design. These approaches within iterative design-build-test-learn workflows can accelerate the programmable assembly of biosynthetic systems and expand the accessible chemical space for natural products.

Kim, Gahyeon↗

Neural network based emulation of galaxy power spectrum covariances: A reanalysis of BOSS DR12 data

We train neural networks to quickly generate redshift-space galaxy power spectrum covariances from a given parameter set (cosmology and galaxy bias). This covariance emulator utilizes a combination of traditional fully connected network layers and transformer architecture to accurately predict covariance matrices for the high redshift, north galactic cap sample of the BOSS DR12 galaxy catalog. We run simulated likelihood analyses with emulated and brute-force computed covariances, and we quantify the network’s performance via two different metrics: (1) difference in Χ 2 and (2) likelihood contours for simulated BOSS DR 12 analyses. We find that the emulator returns excellent results over a large parameter range. We then use our emulator to perform a reanalysis of the BOSS HighZ NGC galaxy power spectrum, and find that varying covariance with cosmology along with the model vector produces Ω m = $0.27⁢6$$^{+0.013}_{–0.015}$, H 0 = 70.2 ± 1.9 km/s/Mpc, and σ 8 = $0.67⁢4$$^{+0.058}_{–0.077}$. These constraints represent an average 0.46⁢σ shift in best-fit values and a 5% increase in constraining power compared to fixing the covariance matrix (Ω m = 0.293 ± 0.017, H 0 = 70.3 ± 2.0 km/s/Mpc, σ 8 = $0.70⁢2$$^{+0.063}_{–0.075}$). As a result, this work demonstrates that emulators for more complex cosmological quantities than second-order statistics can be trained over a wide parameter range at sufficiently high accuracy to be implemented in realistic likelihood analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

WellPINN: Accurate Well Representation for Transient Fluid Pressure Diffusion in Subsurface Reservoirs With Physics‐Informed Neural Networks

Accurate representation of pumping wells is essential for reliable reservoir characterization and simulation of operational scenarios in subsurface flow models. Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) are emerging as a promising alternative to numerical models for reservoir modeling, offering seamless integration of monitoring data and governing physical equations. However, existing PINN-based studies face major challenges in capturing fluid pressure near wells when using a source/sink term, particularly during the early stages after pumping begins. We address this problem by introducing WellPINN, a workflow in which an initially trained PINN infers fluid pressure across the entire reservoir domain using a large equivalent well radius. This initial PINN solution is then locally refined around the well by a set of subdomain PINNs that are trained for smaller equivalent well radii. Continuity across these subdomain interfaces as well as at the initial condition is ensured by hard-constraining each PINN on its subdomain boundary. Our results demonstrate WellPINN as the first workflow of its kind to focus on accurate inference of fluid pressure from pumping rates throughout the entire injection period, significantly advancing the potential of PINNs for inverse modeling and operational scenario simulations. All data and code for this paper are openly available at https://doi.org/10.20350/DIGITALCSIC/17260.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Enhancing Solar Power Forecasting with Regularized Constrained Quantile Regression Averaging and Bootstrapping Techniques

Probabilistic solar power forecasting (SPF) plays an essential role in optimizing power-grid operations by quantifying the forecast uncertainty. To improve the accuracy and robustness of probabilistic SPF, this paper introduces the regularized constrained quantile regression averaging (rCQRA) method to combine outputs from multiple PSPF models. In addition, a bootstrapping method was used to quantify model uncertainty, providing insights into the reliability and significance of each ensemble component. To evaluate its efficacy, the proposed rCQRA method is used to integrate four PSPF methods. The resulting SPF models are trained and validated using a real-world six-year dataset from a rooftop solar plant in the USA. The performance of the proposed rCQRA method is evaluated and compared with two benchmark methods under three categories of weather conditions. It is shown that the rCQRA method has superior performance in its forecast reliability, sharpness, and accuracy.

Ensemble learning, probabilistic solar power forec↗