SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Credibility”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Level 2 Milestone: Develop and Incorporate Novel Code Verification of Fundamental Equations in Gemma and Set Up Appropriate Tests

For computational physics simulations, code verification plays a major role in establishing the credibility of the results by assessing the correctness of the implementation of the underlying numerical methods. In computational electromagnetics, surface integral equations, such as the method-of-moments implementations of the electric-, magnetic-, and combinedfield integral equations, are frequently used to solve Maxwell’s equations on the surfaces of electromagnetic scatterers. These electromagnetic surface integral equations yield many code-verification challenges due to the various sources of numerical error and their possible interactions. In this report, we provide approaches to separately measure the numerical errors arising from these different error sources. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these approaches in Gemma.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Understanding Decision-Relevant Regional Data Products: Workshop Report

A broad community of climate adaptation practitioners, stakeholders and policymakers rely on historical reconstructions and future projections of local to regional climate. To be of value to these users, climate data must be credible, salient, and authoritative (Cash et al. 2002). Namely, data must be consistent with our physical understanding of the global Earth system, must be relevant for informing the decision-making process, and must be backed by expert judgment. As more and more data products have become available, multiple challenges have emerged around the production, evaluation, selection, and use of these data products. Consequently, to ensure crucial decisions leverage the best possible historical and future physical climate data, there is a pressing need to develop a coordinated national climate data strategy that is inclusive of all relevant communities of practice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adopting Code Verification Methodology Based on Model Form

Code verification is an essential part of credibility analysis for computational models. It assesses whether the mathematical model is implemented correctly into the code and whether the numerical methods behave consistently, and is done before solution verification and validation. Robust guidance for code verification exists in the literature. However, there is no known, concise guide for selecting the approach based on the model form that also presents an overview of the common elements. This document was written to address this gap as an accessible reference for beginning a code-verification effort.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adapting Code Verification Methodology to Model Form

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Technology-Neutral, Accident Containment-Based Path to Reduce Nuclear Power Costs

Cost remains a substantial impediment to nuclear power plant (NPP) deployment. The origin of the multifold cost difference between NPPs and other industrial facilities is in their unique potential for societally disruptive accidents. Consequently, one means to substantially reduce NPP costs would be to provide a transparent means of demonstrating that a plant’s potential for land-contamination accidents is so remote to amount to a practical certainty that no significant quantity of radionuclides would ever reach the public. The necessary confidence can be developed through employing a containment capable of withstanding both a complete internal energy release accident along with credible external events with ample margin. This paper provides an overview of a path forward to develop a technology-neutral, containment-based safety-adequacy demonstration method.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

LEED: A Lightwave Energy-Efficient Datacenter

The Lightwave Energy-Efficient Datacenter (LEED) program is a disruptive “green-field” approach that provides a quantum leap in the energy efficiency of datacenters. LEED’s fundamental value proposition is that a novel and re-architected optical network—RotorNet— can deliver “more bandwidth per buck” as well as unique system-level attributes that significantly improve overall datacenter energy efficiency and performance. LEED has developed three system-level testbeds. The first testbed uses calibrated hardware and software power measurements to determine server energy efficiency as a function of network bandwidth and workload. These measurements have shown that increasing network communications bandwidth dramatically increases server energy efficiency providing a realistic path to the overall ENLITENED program goal of doubling the number of transactions per joule. The second testbed demonstrates key hardware: a prototype low-loss, high-port count optical “selector switch”. This switch was fabricated, racked, and tested. Measured switch characteristics include loss, bandwidth, crosstalk, switch time, system-level switch time (including the transceivers), and bit error rate. The third testbed demonstrates a fully working and manufactured pinwheel design which dramatically lowers the cost of design, while delivering high switch radix and low reconfiguration times. The LEED project has tied these three novel photonic switch prototypes together with production servers and software through the development of a novel FPGA-based NIC platform called Corundum. Corundum ensures that the packet-switched protocols supported by commodity operating systems and devices can interface with the Rotor switch design. The LEED group has used this combined hardware and software prototype to characterize applications running at a commercially relevant scale. The project has used a combination of enhanced optical modulation amplitude (OMA) modulators, broadband multiplexers and demultiplexers, avalanche photodiodes, and a novel burst-mode receivers to enable the insertion of LEED-developed optical switches without the need for expensive optical amplification. Our modeling has shown that measured LEED-developed device characteristics can achieve link characteristics of 2 pJ/bit including both transceivers and the Rotor switch. In summary, the LEED program has demonstrated a credible and practical path, through novel hardware and software, to realize the program objectives of ENLITENED. The net result will ensure that the United States maintains its strength in the crucial sector of Information Technology, which is vital to both our economic security and our national security.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Small-scale validation tests for MFIX-Exa CFD-DEM

This report describes several bench-scale fluidization experiments that can be used to validate the CFD-DEM method as encapsulated in the MFIX-Exa code. The five cases considered are the cold-flow fluidized beds of Müller et al., Link et al. (spout-fluid), and Goldschmidt et al. (bi-disperse), the hot fluidized bed of Patil et al., and the adsorbing fluidized bed of Li et al. and Janssen. In most cases, MFIX-Exa with “standard” or “typical” CFD-DEM settings, the Gidaspow drag model, and the Gunn heat transfer provide a relatively good prediction of the quantities considered: mean void fraction profiles, mean velocity profiles, fluctuating velocity profiles, mean particle temperature and segregation index. These results, with other verification and validation tests reported elsewhere, contribute to a body of work providing confidence and credibility in CFD predictions from the MFIX-Exa code.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulation of Deuterium Oxidation in a Room with a Fire

A series of experiments where deuterium was released in trace amounts into a room with a fire were performed at Sandia National Laboratories. This report describes the corresponding effort to model the test series using SIERRA/FUEGO. The objective of this modeling effort was to produce a simulation test matrix that can be utilized to help interpret the corresponding experiments and be used to assess the credibility of using the SIERRA/FUEGO simulations as a surrogate for real tritium reaction data for mock fire and release studies. The simulations assessed multiple configurations of fire size and location and overall found that there was low conversion of deuterium to oxidized deuterium. There are some notable differences between the simulation predictions and the experimental results, such as the simulations generally predicting higher amounts of deuterium conversion compared to the experiment. A strategy to address modeling uncertainties and unknowns is also given in this report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Virtual Reality for Shoot/No-Shoot Decision Training in Law Enforcement: A Literature Review and Research Agenda

Virtual reality (VR) can materially improve “shoot / no-shoot” (SNS) training by giving officers realistic, repeatable practice making high-stakes decisions under pressure. Traditional tools—live-fire ranges and video simulators—build basics, but they cannot adapt to each officer in real time or fully mirror the complexity of the field. VR closes that gap by creating immersive scenarios that are safer, more flexible, easier to scale across units, and able to capture objective performance data. SNS decisions are not just about marksmanship; they rely on perception, judgment, memory, and the ability to hold fire when a threat is uncertain. Effective training therefore needs realism, decision complexity, and branching outcomes that reflect the true consequences of choices. These elements strengthen recognition of hostile intent while reducing false positives and building the self-control required in ambiguous situations. VR brings specific advantages: dynamic environments, full-body interaction, and the ability to measure performance with precision—enabling targeted feedback and better transfer of learning to the street. At the same time, responsible deployment must address scenario quality (credible environments and behaviors), lawful decision models, and user wellbeing (appropriate stress levels, comfort, and safety). Sandia’s VIPER Lab is positioned to lead this work. The team combines human-performance science, AI/ML, and VR/AR development with a deep equipment bench (e.g., omnidirectional treadmill, eye-tracking, haptics, multiple HMDs). This ecosystem supports building and validating next-generation SNS training that is immersive, measurable, and trustworthy. Bottom line: Investment in VR-enabled SNS training that blends evidence-based design with careful validation and legal safeguards is expected to pay off in safer, more consistent decision-making and improved community trust, delivered through training that is practical to deploy at scale.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2025

DRE: Designing for Resilience through Emulation

Threats to cyber- and cyber-physical systems have continued to increase over the past decade. Now more than ever, it is vital that cyber-physical system stakeholders have the tools to deeply understand their systems and the threats they face. High-fidelity modeling capabilities are powerful tools to support system understanding and decision-making, but they currently lack scientifically rigorous experimentation practices and infrastructures. The purpose of the project Designing for Resilience through Emulation (DRE) was to bring together past research and existing tools into a new pipeline to improve our ability to quantitatively evaluate future cyber scenarios. DRE offers new integrated capabilities for large dataset collection, noise studies, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and surrogate modeling using a cyber-physical system emulation environment. These new capabilities significantly improve our ability to establish the credibility of the answers derived from emulation environments, ultimately leading to better critical decision support.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantum Computing Strategy 2026

Quantum computing (QC) is a rapidly maturing technology with the potential for revolutionary impacts on stockpile stewardship science and national security. Recent developments in fault-tolerant architectures have compressed vendor roadmaps, and predictions of a production-ready quantum computer by the mid-2030s are becoming increasingly credible. This strategy provides a roadmap for integrating QC into the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program by investing in four strategic focus areas: 1. Develop Capabilities in Mission-Relevant Quantum Applications: ASC will prioritize developing quantum-ready applications in mission areas that have shown significant promise for quantum advantage, including simulations of materials in extreme environments, nuclear dynamics, solving linear and nonlinear partial differential equations, and uncertainty quantification. These applications directly support stockpile stewardship science and modernization objectives. 2. Conduct R&D in Algorithms, Software, and Hardware: Sustained research into quantum algorithms, robust software tools, and quantum hardware is essential. ASC will develop efficient quantum algorithms; invest in quantum compilers, debuggers, and performance tools; and explore specialized quantum hardware tailored to NNSA’s unique requirements. 3. Engage with Vendors and Partners: Early and active collaboration with commercial quantum hardware vendors and academic partners is critical. Through testbeds, co-design agreements, and quantum demonstration facilities, ASC will influence hardware design, gain early access to emerging technologies, and ensure that quantum platforms evolve to meet mission needs. 4. Build Knowledge, Experience, and Workforce: Expanding and upskilling the quantum-trained workforce is essential to long-term success. This includes hiring, internal training, university outreach, and postdoctoral support to ensure ASC maintains the expertise required to operate, program, and integrate quantum systems as they become available. While quantum computing will never replace classical computing, it has the potential to solve certain problems with speed and accuracy that would be unachievable using any conceivable classical high-performance computing (HPC) system. By investing strategically in QC, ASC will help propel the emergent QC industry, maintain U.S. technological leadership, ensure mission readiness, and position itself to rapidly adopt quantum technologies as they mature.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Parametric Analysis of Holdup in HEPA Filters

This technical document (TECH) contains an analysis of several conditions deemed credible for plutonium oxide buildup in high-efficiency air particulate (HEPA) filters to determine the effect of holdup inside the filter on reactivity. This document is performed in accordance with NCS-AP-005, R3 [Ref. (1)].

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Euro-Deterrent: Analysis of Proposals for a European Nuclear Arsenal (CNSIS Paper)

The idea of a “Euro-deterrent”—a nuclear arsenal under European control and mandated to protect multiple European countries—has been proposed many times as a means for European self-defense independent of United States security guarantees under the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). This paper examines not only the concept’s multiple guises, but the reasons for their failure. It will address the idea of a Franco-British umbrella, a French umbrella, a European “pool”, and the nuclear arsenal of a hypothetical “united Europe”. Reasons for rejection largely fall into three categories: sovereignty concerns, credibility gaps, and a desire to preserve existing norms and structures. This paper concludes that the Euro-deterrent will likely remain only hypothetical unless the US unequivocally signals its intent to withdraw its nuclear umbrella from Europe, thereby forcing European countries to build a new defense arrangement.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2025

DeepDiagnostics: A Software Package for Streamlined Posterior Evaluation

Automated prediction techniques like simulation-based inference (SBI) are important tasks for science experiments that produce large amounts of complex, raw data. However, their development remains in its early stages because the uncertainties of these techniques lack sufficient trustworthiness and interpretability. Packages for SBI provide a growing set of diagnostics; however, the software requirements are substantial, as they are tied to the inference technology itself, and the APIs lack adaptability. We introduce the DeepDiagnostics package for diagnosing posteriors from analytic likelihood-based methods and SBI methods, such as neural posterior estimation. DeepDiagnostics produces a comprehensive set of high-quality visualizations and metrics in a highly accessible, easy-to-use, and flexible package. We address all of these goals by providing a command-line inference tool and a Python API that is controlled through a configuration file. The package includes common diagnostics, such as parity plots, corner (covariance) plots, simulation-based calibration (SBC) diagnostics (including posterior coverage and rank histograms), Lemos et al. s PQMass and TARP, Masserano et al. s WALDO, Linhart et al. s LC2ST, as well as credible region diagnostics developed by our group.

Voetberg, Maggie [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Organic Rankine Cycle Integration and Optimization for High Efficiency CHP Genset Systems (Final Technical Report)

This project successfully advanced the integration of Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) technology with reciprocating engine–based combined heat and power (CHP) systems to improve electrical efficiency, total CHP efficiency, and grid-responsive operation. Over three budget periods, the work progressed from high-temperature ORC component development and thermodynamic model validation to next-generation system design, working fluid transition, and techno-economic analysis. Key technical accomplishments include development and validation of a thermodynamic model capable of accurately predicting ORC performance across an expanded temperature and pressure envelope; successful identification and validation of low-global-warming-potential (GWP) working fluids—most notably R1233zd(E)—as viable replacements for R245fa; and demonstration of scalable ORC architectures suitable for integration with 1–20 MW class reciprocating engines. These advances enable flexible CHP configurations that can increase electrical output while maintaining high overall utilization of available thermal energy. The project also produced a clean-sheet design for a next-generation ORC system targeting substantially higher power output per unit, supported by detailed component selection, heat exchanger evaluation, and system-level modeling. Techno-economic analyses indicate that ORC-enabled flexible CHP systems can meet or exceed Department of Energy (DOE) efficiency targets while providing value to both facility operators and the electric grid.. Late-stage testing of the largest next-generation ORC prototype identified limitations related to pump net positive suction head (NPSH) requirements and condenser flooding under certain operating conditions. Although these issues constrained full validation of that configuration within the project timeframe, they provided clear and actionable design guidance for future system refinements. Importantly, validated modeling, smaller-scale testing, and working fluid evaluations confirmed the technical viability of the overall approach. In aggregate, this project met its core objectives by establishing validated design tools, de-risking key ORC technologies for CHP applications, and defining a credible pathway toward commercialization of flexible, high-efficiency CHP systems. The results form a strong foundation for continued development and deployment beyond the conclusion of the DOE-funded effort.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Triboelectric Nanogenerator Repeatability and Reproducibility Study

The development of triboelectric nanogenerators (TENGs) has largely focused on optimizing output performance, often at the expense of other critical research considerations such as the development of reliable technical procedures. In particular, the reliability of reported results—specifically repeatability and reproducibility—remains underexplored and is frequently limited to brief discussion within available literature. Without rigorous validation through repeatability and reproducibility studies, the credibility and broader applicability of reported findings remain uncertain. This study addresses this gap by systematically evaluating the repeatability and reproducibility of TENG performance data. Five polymer materials—Kapton, polyethylene (PE), polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE), and polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF)—were investigated across all pairwise combinations of 25 total combinations for the reproducibility study and three selected pairs of the 25 samples were selected for the repeatability study. For each TENG pairing, we analyzed the methodology, experimental procedures, and resulting performance data to quantify consistency and reliability. The objective of this work is to assess the validity of the collected dataset and determine whether the observed performance trends are consistent for use in future TENG design and optimization studies. Establishing reliable and reproducible data is essential for advancing the development of high-output TENG systems and ensuring their dependable implementation in practical applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Quantification Challenge Problem: XFOIL vs. MFOIL

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has become more critical in aerospace engineering due to the growing dependence on computational tools for design optimization and performance analyses of aerospace vehicles. Even though the significance of UQ in assessing the credibility of computational analyses is well recognized, its costs and complexity impede its integration into standard practices, particularly in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and other fluid analyses. This paper presents a UQ study for low-fidelity computational aerodynamics analyses with XFOIL and mfoil (i.e., the MATLAB version of XFOIL with several implementation modifications); these tools are utilized widely in both research and education. The main contributions of this paper are as follows: 1) improved precision in quantifying the uncertainty of the baseline Monte Carlo results used to benchmark surrogate modeling techniques for UQ, 2) quantification of the effect of the implementation differences between XFOIL and mfoil on solution quantities of interest (QoIs), such as lift and pitching moment coefficients, and 3) development of an open-source UQ library for use with XFOIL and mfoil, which has educational values and helps promote UQ for fluid analyses with aerospace applications. Results and discussions revolve around cases 1-4 of the challenge problem posed by the AIAA Fluid Dynamics Technical Committee’s Uncertainty Quantification Discussion Group (UQDG). In case 3, this work employs CFDverify, an open-source solution verification software, to quantify the discretization error and evaluate the extrapolated QoIs based on the grid convergence index (GCI). This UQ study differentiates itself from previous studies in the rigor of handling baseline Monte Carlo uncertainty and in including mfoil, which is a more accessible alternative to XFOIL. Finally, despite the growing computing power, low-fidelity computational tools remain valuable, such as for aerodynamic shape optimization at Mach numbers below 0.65 and low-to-mid Reynolds numbers.

Lay, Aidan S [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improved Statistical Analysis for the Neutrinoless Double-Beta Decay Matrix Element of 136Xe

Neutrinoless double beta decay nuclear matrix element (M0ν) for 136Xe was recently analyzed using a statistical approach (Phys. Rev. C 107, 045501 (2023)). In the analysis, three initial shell model effective Hamiltonians were randomly altered, and their results for 23 measured observables were used to infer credibility for the M0ν nuclear matrix element (NME) based on a Bayesian Model Averaging approach. In that analysis, a reasonable Gamow-Teller quenching factor of 0.7 was assumed for each starting effective Hamiltonian. Given that the result of the statistical analysis was sensible to this choice, we are here improving that analysis by assuming that the Gamow-Teller quenching factor is also randomly chosen within reasonabe limits for all three starting Hamiltonians. The outcomes are slightly higher expectation values and uncertainties for the M0ν NME.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗