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Research in the application of spectral data to crop identification and assessment, volume 2

The development of spectrometry crop development stage models is discussed with emphasis on models for corn and soybeans. One photothermal and four thermal meteorological models are evaluated. Spectral data were investigated as a source of information for crop yield models. Intercepted solar radiation and soil productivity are identified as factors related to yield which can be estimated from spectral data. Several techniques for machine classification of remotely sensed data for crop inventory were evaluated. Early season estimation, training procedures, the relationship of scene characteristics to classification performance, and full frame classification methods were studied. The optimal level for combining area and yield estimates of corn and soybeans is assessed utilizing current technology: digital analysis of LANDSAT MSS data on sample segments to provide area estimates and regression models to provide yield estimates.

Daughtry, C. S. T.↗

Measurement and Modeling of the Optical Scattering Properties of Crop Canopies

Efforts in measuring, analyzing, and mathematically modeling the specular, polarized, and diffuse light scattering properties of several plant canopies and their component parts (leaves, stems, fruit, soil) as a function of view angle and illumination angle are reported. Specific objectives were: (1) to demonstrate a technique for determining the specular and diffuse components of the reflectance factor of plant canopies; (2) to acquire the measurements and begin assembling a data set for developing and testing canopy reflectance models; (3) to design and build a new optical instrument to measure the light scattering properties of individual leaves; and (4) to use this instrument to survey and investigate the information in the light scattering properties of individual leaves of crops, forests, weeds, and horticulture.

Vanderbilt, V. C.↗

Using knowledge of agricultural practices to enhance through-the-season interpretation of Landsat data

Landsat data contain features that can be interpreted to produce information about crops, in support of crop estimation procedures. This paper considers ways in which detailed knowledge of agricultural practices and events might increase and improve the utilization of Landsat data in both the predictive and observational or measurement components of such procedures. Landsat observables related to agricultural practices and events throughout the cropping season are listed. Agricultural fields are identified as the preferred observational units for incorporating refined agricultural understanding, such as crop rotation patterns, into machine procedures. Uses of Landsat data from both prior seasons and the current season are considered, as is use of predictive models of crop appearance. The investigation of knowledge engineering systems tailored to through-the-season estimation problems is recommended for long range development.

Malila, W. A.↗

Global Food Insecurity and Famine From Reduced Crop, Marine Fishery and Livestock Production Due to Climate Disruption From Nuclear War Soot Injection

Atmospheric soot loadings from nuclear weapon detonation would cause disruptions to the Earth’s climate, limiting terrestrial and aquatic food production. Here, we use climate, crop and fishery models to estimate the impacts arising from six scenarios of stratospheric soot injection, predicting the total food calories available in each nation post-war after stored food is consumed. In quantifying impacts away from target areas, we demonstrate that soot injections larger than 5 Tg would lead to mass food shortages, and livestock and aquatic food production would be unable to compensate for reduced crop output, in almost all countries. Adaptation measures such as food waste reduction would have limited impact on increasing available calories. We estimate more than 2 billion people could die from nuclear war between India and Pakistan, and more than 5 billion could die from a war between the United States and Russia—underlining the importance of global cooperation in preventing nuclear war.

Atmospheric soot↗

Tree Canopy Light Interception Estimates in Almond and a Walnut Orchards Using Ground, Low Flying Aircraft, and Satellite Based Methods to Improve Irrigation Scheduling Programs

Canopy light interception is a main driver of water use and crop yield in almond and walnut production. Fractional green canopy cover (Fc) is a good indicator of light interception and can be estimated remotely from satellite using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. Satellite-based Fc estimates could be used to inform crop evapotranspiration models, and hence support improvements in irrigation evaluation and management capabilities. Satellite estimates of Fc in almond and walnut orchards, however, need to be verified before incorporating them into irrigation scheduling or other crop water management programs. In this study, Landsat-based NDVI and Fc from NASA's Satellite Irrigation Management Support (SIMS) were compared with four estimates of canopy cover: 1. light bar measurement, 2. in-situ and image-based dimensional tree-crown analyses, 3. high-resolution NDVI data from low flying aircraft, and 4. orchard photos obtained via Google Earth and processed by an Image J thresholding routine. Correlations between the various estimates are discussed.

Satellite↗

The Parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS)

We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility.

crop modeling↗

A model of regional primary production for use with coarse resolution satellite data

A model of crop primary production, which was originally developed to relate the amount of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) to net production in field studies, is discussed in the context of coarse resolution regional remote sensing of primary production. The model depends on an approximately linear relationship between APAR and the normalized difference vegetation index. A more comprehensive form of the conventional model is shown to be necessary when different physiological types of plants or heterogeneous vegetation types occur within the study area. The predicted variable in the new model is total assimilation (net production plus respiration) rather than net production alone or harvest yield.

Prince, S. D.↗

Spectral estimates of solar radiation intercepted by corn canopies

Reflectance factor data were acquired with a Landsat band radiometer throughout two growing seasons for corn (Zea mays L.) canopies differing in planting dates, populations, and soil types. Agronomic data collected included leaf area index (LAI), biomass, development stage, and final grain yields. The spectral variable, greenness, was associated with 78 percent of the variation in LAI over all treatments. Single observations of LAI or greenness have limited value in predicting corn yields. The proportions of solar radiation intercepted (SRI) by these canopies were estimated using either measured LAI or greenness. Both SRI estimates, when accumulated over the growing season, accounted for approximately 65 percent of the variation in yields. Models which simulated the daily effects of weather and intercepted solar radiation on growth had the highest correlations to grain yields. This concept of estimating intercepted solar radiation using spectral data represents a viable approach for merging spectral and meteorological data for crop yield models.

Bauer, M. E.↗

Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

uncertainty↗

Development of visible/infrared/microwave agriculture classification and biomass estimation algorithms

Agricultural crop classification models using two or more spectral regions (visible through microwave) are considered in an effort to estimate biomass at Guymon, Oklahoma Dalhart, Texas. Both grounds truth and aerial data were used. Results indicate that inclusion of C, L, and P band active microwave data, from look angles greater than 35 deg from nadir, with visible and infrared data improve crop discrimination and biomass estimates compared to results using only visible and infrared data. The microwave frequencies were sensitive to different biomass levels. The K and C band were sensitive to differences at low biomass levels, while P band was sensitive to differences at high biomass levels. Two indices, one using only active microwave data and the other using data from the middle and near infrared bands, were well correlated to total biomass. It is implied that inclusion of active microwave sensors with visible and infrared sensors on future satellites could aid in crop discrimination and biomass estimation.

Rosenthal, W. D.↗

Remote Sensing Based Yield Monitoring: Application to Winter Wheat in United States and Ukraine

Accurate and timely crop yield forecasts are critical for making informed agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Earth observation data from space can contribute to agricultural monitoring, including crop yield assessment and forecasting. In this study, we present a new crop yield model based on the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI) extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data at 1 km resolution and the un-mixing of DVI at coarse resolution to a pure wheat signal (100% of wheat within the pixel). The model was applied to estimate the national and subnational winter wheat yield in the United States and Ukraine from 2001 to 2017. The model at the subnational level shows very good performance for both countries with a coefficient of determination higher than 0.7 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of lower than 0.6 t/ha (15–18%). At the national level for the United States (US) and Ukraine the model provides a strong coefficient of determination of 0.81 and 0.86, respectively, which demonstrates good performance at this scale. The model was also able to capture low winter wheat yields during years with extreme weather events, for example 2002 in US and 2003 in Ukraine. The RMSE of the model for the US at the national scale is 0.11 t/ha (3.7%) while for Ukraine it is 0.27 t/ha (8.4%).

remote sensing↗

Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1,3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.

exhaust gases↗

Automatic corn-soybean classification using Landsat MSS data. I - Near-harvest crop proportion estimation. II - Early season crop proportion estimation

The techniques used initially for the identification of cultivated crops from Landsat imagery depended greatly on the iterpretation of film products by a human analyst. This approach was not very effective and objective. Since 1978, new methods for crop identification are being developed. Badhwar et al. (1982) showed that multitemporal-multispectral data could be reduced to a simple feature space of alpha and beta and that these features would separate corn and soybean very well. However, there are disadvantages related to the use of alpha and beta parameters. The present investigation is concerned with a suitable method for extracting the required features. Attention is given to a profile model for crop discrimination, corn-soybean separation using profile parameters, and an automatic labeling (target recognition) method. The developed technique is extended to obtain a procedure which makes it possible to estimate the crop proportion of corn and soybean from Landsat data early in the growing season.

Badhwar, G. D.↗

An Interoperable, Agricultural Information System Based on Satellite Remote Sensing Data

Monitoring global agricultural crop conditions during the growing season and estimating potential seasonal production are critically important for market development of US. agricultural products and for global food security. The Goddard Space Flight Center Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center Distributed Active Archive Center (GES DISC DAAC) is developing an Agricultural Information System (AIS), evolved from an existing TRMM Online Visualization and Analysis System (TOVAS), which will operationally provide satellite remote sensing data products (e.g., rainfall) and services. The data products will include crop condition and yield prediction maps, generated from a crop growth model with satellite data inputs, in collaboration with the USDA Agricultural Research Service. The AIS will enable the remote, interoperable access to distributed data, by using the GrADS-DODS Server (GDS) and by being compliant with Open GIS Consortium standards. Users will be able to download individual files, perform interactive online analysis, as well as receive operational data flows. AIS outputs will be integrated into existing operational decision support systems for global crop monitoring, such as those of the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service and the U.N. World Food Program.

Teng, William↗

Development of visible/infrared/microwave agriculture classification and biomass estimation algorithms, volume 2

Agricultural crop classification models using two or more spectral regions (visible through microwave) were developed and tested and biomass was estimated by including microwave with visible and infrared data. The study was conducted at Guymon, Oklahoma and Dalhart, Texas utilizing aircraft multispectral data and ground truth soil moisture and biomass information. Results indicate that inclusion of C, L, and P band active microwave data from look angles greater than 35 deg from nadir with visible and infrared data improved crop discrimination and biomass estimates compared to results using only visible and infrared data. The active microwave frequencies were sensitive to different biomass levels. In addition, two indices, one using only active microwave data and the other using data from the middle and near infrared bands, were well correlated to total biomass.

Rosenthal, W. D.↗

Solutions Network Formulation Report. Using NASA Sensors to Perform Crop Type Assessment for Monitoring Insect Resistance in Corn

The EPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) is tasked to monitor for insect pest resistance to transgenic crops. Several models have been developed to understand the resistance properties of insects. The Population Genetics Simulator model is used in the EPA PIRDSS (Pest Infestation and Resistance Decision Support System). The EPA Office of Pesticide Programs uses the DSS to help understand the potential for insect pest resistance development and the likelihood that insect pest resistance will negatively affect transgenic corn. Once the DSS identifies areas of concern, crews are deployed to collect insect pest samples, which are tested to identify whether they have developed resistance to the toxins in transgenic corn pesticides. In this candidate solution, VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite) vegetation index products will be used to build hypertemporal layerstacks for crop type and phenology assessment. The current phenology attribute is determined by using the current time of year to index the expected growth stage of the crop. VIIRS might provide more accurate crop type assessment and also might give a better estimate on the crop growth stage.

Lewis, David↗

Development of visible/infrared/microwave agriculture classification and biomass estimation algorithms

This paper describes the results of a study to determine if crop acreage and biomass estimates could be improved by using visible IR and microwave data. The objectives were to (1) develop and test agricultural crop classification models using two or more spectral regions (visible through microwave), and (2) estimate biomass by including microwave with visible and infrared data. Aircraft multispectral data collected during the study included visible and infrared data (multiband data from 0.5 m - 12 m), and active microwave data K band (2 cm), C band (6 cm), L band (20 cm), and P band (75 cm) HH and HV polarizations. Ground truth data from each field consisted of soil moisture and biomass measurements. Results indicated that C, L, and P band active microwave data combined with visible and infrared data improved crop discrimination and biomass estimates compared to results using only visible and infrared data. The active microwave frequencies were sensitive to different biomass levels; K and C being sensitive to differences at low biomass levels, while P band was sensitive to differences at high biomass levels.

Rosenthal, W. D.↗

Crop status evaluations and yield predictions

One phase of the large area crop inventory project is presented. Wheat yield models based on the input of environmental variables potentially obtainable through the use of space remote sensing were developed and demonstrated. By the use of a unique method for visually qualifying daily plant development and subsequent multifactor computer analyses, it was possible to develop practical models for predicting crop development and yield. Development of wheat yield prediction models was based on the discovery that morphological changes in plants are detected and quantified on a daily basis, and that this change during a portion of the season was proportional to yield.

Haun, J. R.↗