Estimating Crop Type and Yield of Small Holder Fields in Burkina Faso Using Multi-Day Sentinel-2
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Akiko Elders↗
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Wheat Crop Traits Conferring High Yield Potential May Also Improve Yield Stability Under Climate Change
Increasing genetic wheat yield potential is considered by many as critical to increasing global wheat yields and production, baring major changes in consumption patterns. Climate change challenges breeding by making target environments less predictable, altering regional productivity and potentially increasing yield variability. Here we used a crop simulation model solution in the SIMPLACE framework to explore yield sensitivity to select trait characteristics (radiation use efficiency [RUE], fruiting efficiency and light extinction coefficient) across 34 locations representing the world’s wheat-producing environments, determining their relationship to increasing yields, yield variability and cultivar performance. The magnitude of the yield increase was trait-dependent and differed between irrigated and rainfed environments. RUE had the most prominent marginal effect on yield, which increased by about 45 % and 33 % in irrigated and rainfed sites, respectively, between the minimum and maximum value of the trait. Altered values of light extinction coefficient had the least effect on yield levels. Higher yields from improved traits were generally associated with increased inter-annual yield variability (measured by standard deviation), but the relative yield variability (as coefficient of variation) remained largely unchanged between base and improved genotypes. This was true under both current and future climate scenarios. In this context, our study suggests higher wheat yields from these traits would not increase climate risk for farmers and the adoption of cultivars with these traits would not be associated with increased yield variability.
Climate change↗
Improving the Monitoring of Crop Productivity Using Spaceborne Solar-Induced Fluorescence
Large-scale monitoring of crop growth and yield has important value for forecasting food production and prices and ensuring regional food security. A newly emerging satellite retrieval, solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) of chlorophyll, provides for the first time a direct measurement related to plant photosynthetic activity (i.e. electron transport rate). Here, we provide a framework to link SIF retrievals and crop yield, accounting for stoichiometry, photosynthetic pathways, and respiration losses. We apply this framework to estimate United States crop productivity for 2007-2012, where we use the spaceborne SIF retrievals from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 satellite, benchmarked with county-level crop yield statistics, and compare it with various traditional crop monitoring approaches. We find that a SIF-based approach accounting for photosynthetic pathways (i.e. C3 and C4 crops) provides the best measure of crop productivity among these approaches, despite the fact that SIF sensors are not yet optimized for terrestrial applications. We further show that SIF provides the ability to infer the impacts of environmental stresses on autotrophic respiration and carbon-use-efficiency, with a substantial sensitivity of both to high temperatures. These results indicate new opportunities for improved mechanistic understanding of crop yield responses to climate variability and change.
Guan, Kaiyu↗
Greenhouse tomato limited cluster production systems: crop management practices affect yield
Limited-cluster production systems may be a useful strategy to increase crop production and profitability for the greenhouse tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill). In this study, using an ebb-and-flood hydroponics system, we modified plant architecture and spacing and determined the effects on fruit yield and harvest index at two light levels. Single-cluster plants pruned to allow two leaves above the cluster had 25% higher fruit yields than did plants pruned directly above the cluster; this was due to an increase in fruit weight, not fruit number. Both fruit yield and harvest index were greater for all single-cluster plants at the higher light level because of increases in both fruit weight and fruit number. Fruit yield for two-cluster plants was 30% to 40% higher than for single-cluster plants, and there was little difference in the dates or length of the harvest period. Fruit yield for three-cluster plants was not significantly different from that of two-cluster plants; moreover, the harvest period was delayed by 5 days. Plant density (5.5, 7.4, 9.2 plants/m2) affected fruit yield/plant, but not fruit yield/unit area. Given the higher costs for materials and labor associated with higher plant densities, a two-cluster crop at 5.5 plants/m2 with two leaves above the cluster was the best of the production system strategies tested.
Non-NASA Center↗
Crop status evaluations and yield predictions
A model was developed for predicting the day 50 percent of the wheat crop is planted in North Dakota. This model incorporates location as an independent variable. The Julian date when 50 percent of the crop was planted for the nine divisions of North Dakota for seven years was regressed on the 49 variables through the step-down multiple regression procedure. This procedure begins with all of the independent variables and sequentially removes variables that are below a predetermined level of significance after each step. The prediction equation was tested on daily data. The accuracy of the model is considered satisfactory for finding the historic dates on which to initiate yield prediction model. Growth prediction models were also developed for spring wheat.
Haun, J. R.↗
HARVIST: a system for agricultural and weather studies using advanced statistical methods
Remote sensing instruments in Earth orbit provide a rich source of information about current agricultural conditions. Observed over time, patterns emerge that can assist in the prediction of future conditions, such as the yield expected for a given crop at the end of the growing season.
data fusion↗
Evaluation of a Regional Crop Model Implementation for Sub-National Yield Assessments in Kenya
CONTEXT: Cropping system models can be used to both assess regional food security and to monitor and predict agricultural drought. Agriculture in Kenya is extremely important to both the economy and food security of the country. OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated a regional implementation of a widely used crop model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), within a coupled modeling framework, the Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS), over Kenya. The goal of this study was to assess the ability of RHEAS to simulate the annual variability of maize yields at the county level and evaluate the uncertainty inherent in the model and inputs. METHODS: The RHEAS system implements a stochastic ensemble approach to account for field scale variabilities in crop management practices and underlying soil and weather conditions. Satellite-derived datasets were used to evaluate the land surface component of the system and seasonally disaggregated yield for 5 years was used to assess the performance of the cropping system model. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The median correlation between RHEAS and satellite-derived soil moisture and evapotranspiration estimates were 0.78, and 0.51, respectively, indicating that the model is able to capture the key drivers of the hydrological budget. Overall, RHEAS simulated yearly yield variations with a median correlation of 0.7 with reported yields, with the best performance in the short rains season. However, across both seasons, the RHEAS model was positively biased on the order of ~1.6 MT/ha. The overall median unbiased RMSE was 0.66 MT/ha. The RHEAS system shows skill at simulating extreme departures in anomalies, and a majority of the time (62.5%) the reported yields fall within the interquartile range of the simulations. SIGNIFICANCE: One of the most important areas of improvement for the next generation of agricultural data and models is to better understand and communicate the inherent uncertainties. This is especially critical in data-limited regions. Here we present a modeling system and its implementation that begins to address these concerns. We demonstrate the ability to simulate broad trends in yields at the county level for sub-annual yields with skills that commensurate previous national/annual level studies.
Crop model↗
The Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Part 2: Yield estimates from meteorological information
Crop-weather models developed for wheat from an assembled base of approximately 45 years of climatic records and historic wheat yield and production data at the stratum level are described. Utilization of meteorological data acquired by the NOAA satellites is discussed.
Waite, P. J.↗
[Growth and development of plants in a sequence of generations under the conditions of space flight (experiment Greenhouse-3)]
The purpose was to study characteristic features of growth and development of several plant generations in space flight in experiment GREENHOUSE-3 as a part of the Russian-US space research program MIR/NASA in 1997. The experiment consisted of cultivation of Brassica rapa L. in board greenhouse Svet. Two vegetative cycles were fully completed and the third vegetation was terminated on day 13 on the phase of budding. The total duration of the space experiment was 122 days, i.e. same as in the ground controls. In the experiment with Brassica rapa L. viable seeds produced by the first crop were planted in space flight and yielded next crop. Crops raised from the ground and space seeds were found to differ in height and number of buds. Both parameters were lowered in the plants grown from the space seeds. The prime course for smaller size and reduced organogenic potential of plantTs reproductive system seems to be a less content of nutrients in seeds that had matured in the space flight. Experiment GREENHOUSE-3 demonstrated principle feasibility of plant reproduction in space greenhouse from seeds developed in microgravity.
manned↗
Examining the Responses of Radiation Use Efficiency to C02: A New Approach
Radiation use efficiency (RUE) has been a key parameter for developing simpler models of crop growth and yield. A great deal of effort has gone into measuring RUE in the field and in verifying its validity for predicting crop growth. However, a lack of data on responses of RUE to elevated C02 has resulted in the use of empirical relations that may lead to overestimates of crop yield to C02 enrichment. A new approach relating RUE to canopy quantum yield is presented that offers a more theoretical basis for estimating RUE responses to elevated C02.
Monje, Oscar↗
Crop status evaluations and yield predictions
There are no author-identified significant results in this report.
Haun, J. R.↗
Crop status evaluations and yield predictions
The growth-environment relationships for greenhouse and field conditions are compared, and the development of growth-prediction models for spring wheat is discussed along with the development of models for predicting the date for spring wheat emergence in North Dakota.
Haun, J. R.↗
Agricultural Productivity Forecasts for Improved Drought Monitoring
Water stresses on agricultural crops during critical phases of crop phenology (such as grain filling) has higher impact on the eventual yield than at other times of crop growth. Therefore farmers are more concerned about water stresses in the context of crop phenology than the meteorological droughts. However the drought estimates currently produced do not account for the crop phenology. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a drought monitoring decision support tool: The U.S. Drought Monitor, which currently uses meteorological droughts to delineate and categorize drought severity. Output from the Drought Monitor is used by the States to make disaster declarations. More importantly, USDA uses the Drought Monitor to make estimates of crop yield to help the commodities market. Accurate estimation of corn yield is especially critical given the recent trend towards diversion of corn to produce ethanol. Ethanol is fast becoming a standard 10% ethanol additive to petroleum products, the largest traded commodity. Thus the impact of large-scale drought will have dramatic impact on the petroleum prices as well as on food prices. USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as a focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. WAOB depends on Drought Monitor and has emphatically stated that accurate and timely data are needed in operational agrometeorological services to generate reliable projections for agricultural decision makers. Thus, improvements in the prediction of drought will reflect in early and accurate assessment of crop yields, which in turn will improve commodity projections. We have developed a drought assessment tool, which accounts for the water stress in the context of crop phenology. The crop modeling component is done using various crop modules within Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). DSSAT is an agricultural crop simulation system, which integrates the effects of soil, crop phenotype, weather, and management options. It has been in use for more than 15 years by researchers, growers and has become a de-facto standard in crop modeling communities spanning over 100 countries. The meteorological forcings to DSSAT are provided by NASA s National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) datasets. NLDAS is a framework that incorporates atmospheric forcing and land parameter values along with land surface models to diagnose and predict the state of the land surface.
Limaye, Ashutosh↗
Real-Time Imaging of Ground Cover: Relationships with Radiation Capture, Canopy Photosynthesis, and Daily Growth Rate
Cumulative absorbed radiation is highly correlated with crop biomass and yield. In this chapter we describe the use of a digital camera and commercial imaging software for estimating daily radiation capture, canopy photosynthesis, and relative growth rate. Digital images were used to determine percentage of ground cover of lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) communities grown at five temperatures. Plants were grown in a steady-state, 10-chamber CO2 gas exchange system, which was used to measure canopy photosynthesis and daily carbon gain. Daily measurements of percentage of ground cover were highly correlated with daily measurements of both absorbed radiation (r(sup 2) = 0.99) and daily carbon gain (r(sup 2) = 0.99). Differences among temperature treatments indicated that these relationships were influenced by leaf angle, leaf area index, and chlorophyll content. An analysis of the daily images also provided good estimates of relative growth rates, which were verified by gas exchange measurements of daily carbon gain. In a separate study we found that images taken at hourly intervals were effective for monitoring real-time growth. Our data suggests that hourly images can be used for early detection of plant stress. Applications, limitations, and potential errors are discussed. We have long known that crop yield is determined by the efficiency of four component processes: (i) radiation capture, (ii) quantum yield, (iii) carbon use efficiency, and (iv) carbon partitioning efficiency (Charles-Edwards, 1982; Penning de Vries & van Laar, 1982; Thornley, 1976). More than one-half century ago, Watson (1947, 1952) showed that variation in radiation capture accounted for almost all of the variation in yield between sites in temperate regions, because the three other components are relatively constant when the crop is not severely stressed. More recently, Monteith (1977) reviewed the literature on the close correlation between radiation capture and yield. Bugbee and Monje (1992) demonstrated the close relationship between absorbed radiation and yield in an optimal environment.
Klassen, S. P.↗
Independent Peer Evaluation of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE): The LACIE Symposium
Yield models and crop estimate accuracy are discussed within the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment. The wheat yield estimates in the United States, Canada, and U.S.S.R. are emphasized. Experimental results design, system implementation, data processing systems, and applications were considered.
Source record↗
Risks of Synchronized Low Yields Are Underestimated in Climate and Crop Model Projections
Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security. Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger such events, but so far this has not been quantified. Specifically, the ability of state-of-the art crop and climate models to adequately reproduce such high impact events is a crucial component for estimating risks to global food security. Here we find an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models. While climate models accurately simulate atmospheric patterns, associated surface weather anomalies and negative effects on crop responses are mostly underestimated in bias-adjusted simulations. Given the identified model biases, future assessments of regional and concurrent crop losses from meandering jet states remain highly uncertain. Our results suggest that model-blind spots for such high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards have to be anticipated and accounted for in meaningful climate risk assessments.
Atmospheric dynamics↗
Spectral Indices to Monitor Nitrogen-Driven Carbon Uptake in Field Corn
Climate change is heavily impacted by changing vegetation cover and productivity with large scale monitoring of vegetation only possible with remote sensing techniques. The goal of this effort was to evaluate existing reflectance (R) spectroscopic methods for determining vegetation parameters related to photosynthetic function and carbon (C) dynamics in plants. Since nitrogen (N) is a key constituent of photosynthetic pigments and C fixing enzymes, biological C sequestration is regulated in part by N availability. Spectral R information was obtained from field corn grown at four N application rates (0, 70, 140, 280 kg N/ha). A hierarchy of spectral observations were obtained: leaf and canopy with a spectral radiometer; aircraft with the AISA sensor; and satellite with EO-1 Hyperion. A number of spectral R indices were calculated from these hyperspectral observations and compared to geo-located biophysical measures of plant growth and physiological condition. Top performing indices included the R derivative index D730/D705 and the normalized difference of R750 vs. R705 (ND705), both of which differentiated three of the four N fertilization rates at multiple observation levels and yielded high correlations to these carbon parameters: light use efficiency (LUE); C:N ratio; and crop grain yield. These results advocate the use of hyperspectral sensors for remotely monitoring carbon cycle dynamics in managed terrestrial ecosystems.
Corp, Lawrence A.↗
Midwest Food Security & Agriculture II: Leveraging NASA Earth Observations to Analyze and Display Crop Phenology Data and Weather Conditions to Support Expansion of Small Grain Crops in the Midwest
Agriculture in the Midwest is dominated by monoculture systems that strip the soil of nutrients, decrease yields, and worsen water quality. Crop diversification and cultivating small grains is economically and ecologically advantageous, but limited in practice due to a lack of data about small-grain crop performance as well as monoculture-favoring insurance coverage, economic incentives, and sociocultural traditions. Practical Farmers of Iowa (PFI) strives to create more sustainable agriculture and supports Midwestern farmers in adding small grains into their crop rotations. The DEVELOP team partnered with the USDA Agricultural Research Service and the USA National Phenology Network to assist PFI in applying NASA Earth observation data to track small-grain crop performance. This project developed a Google Earth Engine user interface that enables PFI farmers to compare satellite-assessed vegetation production and climatic conditions of their farm with other PFI farmers. The team assessed the crop performance through Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values derived from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI). Additionally, the team created a regression model to analyze the predictive properties of vegetation indices and crop yield, ultimately establishing a relationship with mean NDVI from the early growing season. PFI farmers can utilize these products to make informed decisions about their crop production as well as advocate for more expansive insurance policies to protect small-grain crops.
Sophie Barrowman↗