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NASA NTRS2019

Near Real-Time Sub/Seasonal Prediction of Aerosol at NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

A new version of the coupled modeling and analysis system used to produce near real time subseasonal to seasonal forecasts was released over a year ago by the NASA/Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The model runs at approximately 1/2 degree globally in the atmosphere and ocean, contains a realistic description of the cryosphere, and includes an interactive aerosol model. The data assimilation used to produce initial conditions is weakly coupled, in which the atmosphere-only assimilated state is coupled to an ocean data assimilation system using a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Here will briefly describe the new system, and show results of aerosol-derived air quality from an extensive series of retrospective forecasts. The interactive aerosol is shown to improve seasonal time scale prediction skill during some "forecasts of oppurtunity". Plans for a future version of the system with predicted biomass burning from fires will also be discussed.

Molod, Andrea M.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Enhanced Habitability on High Obliquity Bodies near the Outer Edge of the Habitable Zone of Sun-Like Stars

High obliquity planets represent potentially extreme limits of terrestrial climate, as they exhibit large seasonality, a reversed annual-mean pole-to-equator gradient of stellar heating, and novel cryospheres. A suite of 3D global climate model simulations is performed for low and high obliquity planets with various stellar fluxes, CO2 concentrations, and initial conditions to explore the propensity for high obliquity climates to undergo global glaciation. We also simulate planets with thick CO2 or H2 atmospheres, such as those expected to develop near or beyond the outer edge of the habitable zone. We show that high obliquity planets are hotter than their low obliquity counterparts due to ice-albedo feedbacks for cold climates, and water vapor in warm climates. We suggest that the water vapor greenhouse trapping is greater on high obliquity bodies for a given global-mean temperature due to the different dynamical regimes that occur between the two states. While equatorial ice belts are stable at high obliquity in some climate regimes, it is substantially harder to achieve global glaciation than for a low obliquity planet. Temperate polar conditions can be present at high obliquity at forcings for which low obliquity planets would be in a hard snowball state. Furthermore, open ocean can persist even in the winter hemisphere and when global-mean temperatures are well below freezing. However, the influence of obliquity diminishes for dense atmospheres, in agreement with calculations from 1D energy balance models.

Planet and satellite atmospheres↗
NASA NTRS2019

Space-Based Observations for Understanding Changes in the Arctic-Boreal Zone

Observations taken over the last few decades indicate that dramatic changes are occurring in the ArcticBoreal Zone (ABZ), which are having significant impacts on ABZ inhabitants, infrastructure, flora and fauna, and economies. While suitable for detecting overall change, the current capability is inadequate for systematic monitoring and for improving process based and large scale understanding of the integrated components of the ABZ, which includes the cryosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere. Such knowledge will lead to improvements in Earth system models, enabling more accurate prediction of future changes and development of informed adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this article, we review the strengths and limitations of current space based observational capabilities for several important ABZ components and make recommendations for improving upon these current capabilities. We recommend an interdisciplinary and stepwise approach to develop a comprehensive ABZ Observing Network (ABZON), beginning with an initial focus on observing networks designed to gain process based understanding for individual ABZ components and systems that can then serve as the building blocks for a comprehensive ABZON.

Bryan N Duncan↗
NASA NTRS2019

NASA GIBS and Worldview: Bringing 20 Years of Terra Data into View

For nearly 10 years, the NASA Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS) and Worldview interactive mapping site have provided users full resolution visualizations of Terra land, cryosphere, ocean, and atmosphere science parameters available within hours of acquisition. Over that time, GIBS and Worldview have expanded their Terra visualization suite to include even more parameters covering the entire mission of science data. Users can now view daily visualizations of nearly 50 near-real time and over 125 science quality science parameters from Terra instruments. These visualizations provide a unique capability for a broad user base to interact and discover the wealth of information sense by instruments on the Terra platform. By viewing Terra-based visualizations in a single location, users can correlate retrievals across instruments. Additionally, GIBS and Worldview include visualizations from many other platforms, allowing for an even greater data discovery capability.The GIBS and Worldview teams continue to work with Terra instrument science teams to add more visualized layers, as well as supporting visualization updates as the data is continually improved. Additionally, the GIBS interfaces and Worldview site are actively working on improved visualization functionality, including vector- and granule/swath-based products, to better address the expanding needs of its user community. This presentation will focus on an overview of existing and future visualization products and capabilities that have supported, and will support, a broad use of Terra data in science, media, and application communities.

Cechini, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS2019

Near Real-Time Sub/Seasonal Prediction of Aerosol and Air Quality at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

Version 2 of the coupled modeling and analysis system used to produce near real time subseasonal to seasonal forecasts was released almost two years ago by the NASA/Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The model runs at approximately 1/2 degree globally in the atmosphere and ocean, contains a realistic description of the cryosphere, and includes an interactive aerosol model. The data assimilation used to produce initial conditions is weakly coupled, in which the atmosphere-only assimilated state is coupled to an ocean data assimilation system using a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Results of aerosol-derived air quality (Particulate Matter) from an extensive series of retrospective forecasts will be shown, with particular focus on the continental United States and eastern Asia. In addition, under some circumstances, the interactive aerosol is shown to improve seasonal time scale prediction skill. Plans for a future version of the system with predicted biomass burning from fires will also be discussed.

Molod, Andrea↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Joint Analysis of GPS Displacement and GRACE Geopotential Data for Simultaneous Estimation of Geocenter Motion and Gravitational Field

Gravitational potential data from GRACE are being used to study mass redistribution within and between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and solid Earth. The GRACE data are made available in a reference frame with its origin at the center of mass of the Earth system (geocenter) while many other geophysical models and data sets refer to a reference frame attached to the Earth's surface. Changes in the offset between these reference frames (geocenter motion) must be accounted for when GRACE data are used to quantify surface mass changes. In this study, we developed a technique for co‐estimation of geocenter motion and gravitational potential field seamlessly from degree 1 to 90 by simultaneously inverting a set of globally‐distributed GPS displacement time series and the temporally‐varying GRACE gravity data. We found that the effect of geocenter motion was evident particularly in the GPS time series of horizontal displacements. Our estimates of geocenter motion are most consistent with the Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) results within 1 mm in X and Z components and a submillimeter in Y component, when compared to monthly variability averaged over the period of 2003–2016. The overall magnitude of the degree‐1 (l = 1) surface mass load is estimated to be ~3 cm in equivalent water height annually migrating south‐westward from Europe (December–January) to the South Pacific (June–July). Our results also show that dense GPS network data improve water storage recovery in major river basins in the United States and Europe by contributing significantly to the recovery of higher‐degree (l ≥ ~20) geopotential coefficients.

Razeghi, Mahdiyeh↗
NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of MODIS and VIIRS Cloud-Gap-Filled Snow-Cover Products for Production of an Earth Science Data Record

MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cryosphere products have been available since 2000 – following the 1999 launch of the Terra MODIS and the 2002 launch of the Aqua MODIS – and include global snow-cover extent (SCE) (swath, daily, and 8 d composites) at 500 m and ∼5 km spatial resolutions. These products are used extensively in hydrological modeling and climate studies. Reprocessing of the complete snow-cover data record, from Collection 5 (C5) to Collection 6 (C6) and Collection 6.1 (C6.1), has provided improvements in the MODIS product suite. Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Collection 1 (C1) snow-cover products at a 375 m spatial resolution have been available since 2011 and are currently being reprocessed for Collection 2 (C2). Both the MODIS C6.1 and the VIIRS C2 products will be available for download from the National Snow and Ice Data Center beginning in early 2020 with the complete time series available in 2020. To address the need for a cloud-reduced or cloud-free daily SCE product for both MODIS and VIIRS, a daily cloud-gap-filled (CGF) snow-cover algorithm was developed for MODIS C6.1 and VIIRS C2 processing. MOD10A1F (Terra) and MYD10A1F (Aqua) are daily, 500 m resolution CGF SCE map products from MODIS. VNP10A1F is the daily, 375 m resolution CGF SCE map product from VIIRS. These CGF products include quality-assurance data such as cloud-persistence statistics showing the age of the observation in each pixel. The objective of this paper is to introduce the new MODIS and VIIRS standard CGF daily SCE products and to provide a preliminary evaluation of uncertainties in the gap-filling methodology so that the products can be used as the basis for a moderate-resolution Earth science data record (ESDR) of SCE. Time series of the MODIS and VIIRS CGF products have been developed and evaluated at selected study sites in the US and southern Canada. Observed differences, although small, are largely attributed to cloud masking and differences in the time of day of image acquisition. A nearly 3-month time-series comparison of Terra MODIS and S-NPP VIIRS CGF snow-cover maps for a large study area covering all or parts of 11 states in the western US and part of southwestern Canada reveals excellent correspondence between the Terra MODIS and S-NPP VIIRS products, with a mean difference of 11 070 sqkm, which is ∼0.45 % of the study area. According to our preliminary validation of the Terra and Aqua MODIS CGF SCE products in the western US study area, we found higher accuracy of the Terra product compared with the Aqua product. The MODIS CGF SCE data record beginning in 2000 has been extended into the VIIRS era, which should last at least through the early 2030s.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Space-Based Observations for Understanding Changes in the Arctic-Boreal Zone

Observations taken over the last few decades indicate that dramatic changes are occurring in the ArcticBoreal Zone (ABZ), which are having significant impacts on ABZ inhabitants, infrastructure, flora and fauna, and economies. While suitable for detecting overall change, the current capability is inadequate for systematic monitoring and for improving processbased and largescale understanding of the integrated components of the ABZ, which includes the cryosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere. Such knowledge will lead to improvements in Earth system models, enabling more accurate prediction of future changes and development of informed adaptation and mitigation strategies. In Duncan et al. (2020), we review the strengths and limitations of current spacebased observational capabilities for several important ABZ components and make recommendations for improving upon these current capabilities. We recommend an interdisciplinary and stepwise approach to develop a comprehensive ABZ Observing Network (ABZON), beginning with an initial focus on observing networks designed to gain processbased understanding for individual ABZ components and systems that can then serve as the building blocks for a comprehensive ABZON.

Artic-Boreal↗
NASA NTRS2019

Ocean Subsurface Study from ICESat-2 Mission

NASA has launched the ICESat-2 mission in September 2018 with the primary purpose of monitoring changes in the cryosphere. Fortunately, the measured photons over ocean region provide great opportunity for the ocean subsurface study. We have proposed a novel algorithm to determine ocean subsurface optical properties, such as, diffuse attenuated coefficient, kd (/m), total backscattering coefficients bb (/m), attenuated backscatter coefficient and particulate backscattering coefficients b(sub bp) (/m) from ICESat-2/ATLAS lidar measurements. Our ICESat-2 ocean subsurface results reveal high vertical resolution of these optical properties through the water column that are hidden from the passive ocean color record. Moreover, we can estimate the particulate organic carbon (POC) and phytoplankton carbon biomass based on the ICESat-2 retrieved particulate backscattering coefficients b( sub bp) results. We will present and discuss the first ICESat-2 ocean subsurface profile results, especially in polar region where passive ocean color measurements are difficult to make. We will also present the multiple scattering effects on the ocean subsurface optical properties retrieval.

Xiaomei Lu↗
NASA NTRS2019

Enhanced Habitability on High Obliquity Bodies Near the Outer Edge of the Habitable Zone of Sun-Like Stars

High obliquity planets represent potentially extreme limits of terrestrial climate, as they exhibit large seasonality, a reversed annual-mean pole-to-equator gradient of stellar heating, and novel cryospheres. A suite of 3-D global climate model simulations with a dynamic ocean is performed with Earthlike atmospheres for low and high obliquity planets with various stellar fluxes, CO2 concentrations, and initial conditions to explore the propensity for high obliquity climates approaching the outer edge of the Habitable Zone to undergo global glaciation. We also simulate planets with thick CO2 or H2 atmospheres, such as those expected to develop near or beyond the outer edge of the Habitable Zone. We show that high obliquity planets are hotter than their low obliquity counterparts due to ice-albedo feedbacks for cold climates, and water vapor in warm climates. We suggest that the water vapor greenhouse trapping is greater on high obliquity bodies due to the different dynamical regimes that occur between the two states. While equatorial ice-belts are stable at high obliquity in some climate regimes, it is harder to achieve global glaciation than for a low obliquity planet. Temperate polar conditions can be present at high obliquity at forcings for which low obliquity planets would be in a hard snowball state. We suggest the conditions on high obliquity planets are likely to be more favorable for a robust biosphere to develop approaching the outer edge of the HZ. However, the influence of obliquity diminishes for dense atmospheres, in agreement with calculations from 1-D Energy Balance Models.

planets and satellites: atmospheres↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Arctic and Boreal Model Development in GMAO

Ongoing research in the GMAO seeks to improve the representation atmospheric, land, and ocean processes in the boreal Arctic and other polar regions. This talk touches on a range of topics, including improvements to sea ice and land ice representation in our subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction system and the initiation of a new collaborative effort with the Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory to develop a high resolution, polar-focused atmospheric reanalysis.

Arctic Boreal↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

PolarMERRA: A collaborative effort for NASA’s polar reanalysis

The polar atmosphere is often poorly represented in global models, adversely impacting analyses in these regions and forecasts on much larger scales. PolarMERRA is an initiative that brings together the modeling expertise from NASA’s global modeling and assimilation office (GMAO) and observational expertise from NASA’s Cryospheric sciences lab to assess and improve the representation of polar processes in the NASA’s modelling system in preparation for upcoming and next generation reanalyses. Model improvements in resolution, physics, and data assimilation have been guided by assessment of model skill in the polar regions. Preliminary results from a novel validation framework indicate a reduction in near surface air temperature, turbulent fluxes, and precipitation biases.

Chelsea Parker↗
NASA NTRS2021

Earth system modeling: can we stay ahead of what's actually happening?

Over the last forty years, Earth System Models have become more and more comprehensive and detailed. They have assimilated previously independent modeling efforts in ocean circulation, atmospheric composition, the stratosphere, land surface, and the cryosphere, and are today demonstrably more skillful than earlier efforts. Yet the structural uncertainty in the latest model projections is actually increasing. Meanwhile, impacts of climate change on, for instance, wildfires, tropical cyclones and sea level, appear to be increasing faster than we have been able to predict. I will address some of the current issues at the bleeding edges of model development and the continuing importance of model evaluation.

Gavin A Schmidt↗
NASA NTRS2020

International Laser Ranging Service 2016-2019 Report

The Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) of the International Association of Geodesy (IAG) provides the basis on which future advances in the geosciences can be built. By considering the Earth system as a whole (including the geosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, atmosphere and biosphere), monitoring Earth system components and their interactions by geodetic techniques and studying them from the geodetic point of view, the geodetic community provides the global geosciences community with a powerful tool consisting mainly of high-quality services, standards and references, and theoretical and observational innovations. Satellite laser ranging is an essential part of the geodetic enterprise, for both monitoring the Earth system and for enabling geoscientific research. The solid Earth is subject to a wide variety of forces including external forces due to the gravitational attraction of the Sun, Moon, and planets, surficial forces due to the action of the atmosphere, oceans, and water stored on land, and internal forces due to earthquakes and tectonic motions, mantle convection, and coupling between the mantle and both the fluid outer core and the solid inner core. The solid Earth responds to these forces by displacing its mass, deforming its shape, and changing its rotation. Satellite laser ranging can measure the change in the Earth’s gravity caused by mass displacement, the change in the Earth’s shape, and the change in the Earth’s rotation. Consequently, satellite laser ranging can be used to study both the mechanisms causing the Earth’s shape, rotation, and gravity to change, as well as the response of the solid Earth to these forcing mechanisms. As a result, satellite laser ranging can be used to gain greater understanding of the Earth’s interior structure and of the nature of the forcing mechanisms including their temporal evolution

Carey Noll↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The ICESat-2 Mission: Land, Ocean, and Inland Water Data Products for Middle and Low Latitude Science and Applications

NASA’s Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat-2) is a polar orbiting mission, launched on September 15, 2018, with over two years of nearly continuous observations. The sole instrument onboard is the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS), a micropulse, high repetition rate, six-beam, 532 nm Lidar with photon-counting technology. Although designed primarily for detecting height changes in ice caps and sea ice in the high latitudes, it continuously observes all terrain in its track including middle and low latitude regions as well, during approximately 15 orbits per day. The official ICESat-2 products include not only cryosphere data but also global high resolution parameters associated with tree canopies, land surface, oceans, and over 1.5 million inland water bodies consisting of lakes, rivers and coastal waters. This presentation provides an overview and the status of the ICESat-2 mission including: i) a summary of the salient technological features and orbit design, ii) the official ICESat-2 science data products for ice, vegetation canopy, ocean sea level, and inland water including several examples in the middle and low latitudes, iii) a list of NASA sponsored software tools for globally browsing the two year archive and for processing both the raw data and the official ICESat-2 geophysical data products, and iv) avenues for interested users to connect with the ICESat-2 Applications Program for answering questions and assistance in possibly using ICESat-2 data in your particular science or application. The overall goal is to facilitate the use of ICESat-2 data not only for science investigations but also for improved decision support applications with societal benefit. Additional ICESat-2 information, documentation and data products are publicly available at https://nsidc.org/data/icesat-2

ICESat-2↗
NASA NTRS2017

Intermediate Fidelity Solid State Recorder Modeling for NISAR

At 26Tb/day return average, NISAR (National Aero- nautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the In- dian Space Research Organization (ISRO) Synthetic Aperture Radar) will stress ground station facilities with a variable cadence of data generation observing nearly all of earth's land and ice to produce global time- series maps of cryospheric, solid-Earth and ecosystem phenomena. Between the instrument data generation source and downlink sink lies the primary science data bu er, the SSR (Solid State Recorder). The SSR has deferred, discrete le deletion events that occur only after a le is played back to all required ground segments (sometimes both NASA and ISRO). A forward dispatch, advancing frontier repropagation playback scheduler is proposed as a model of the SSR's greedy playback scheduling behavior. Schedules based on the existing low delity model and new intermediate delity model are compared to assess the impact of deferred, discrete deletion on planning. The low delity model is found to produce unfeasible schedules that exceed SSR capacity, causing 3.87% of all observations in a 12 day simulation to be removed by repair actions.

Doubleday, Joshua R.↗
NASA NTRS2021

A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences

The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models' representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 16 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The multi-model mean reduction in minimum sea ice area from the pre industrial period (PI) to the LIG reaches 50 % (multi-model mean LIG area is 3.20×10^6 sq.km, compared to 6.46×10^6 sq.km for the PI). On the other hand, there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 15–16×10^6 sq.km for both the PI and the LIG. To evaluate the model results we synthesise LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. The reconstructions for the northern North Atlantic show year-round ice-free conditions, and most models yield results in agreement with these reconstructions. Model–data disagreement appear for the sites in the Nordic Seas close to Greenland and at the edge of the Arctic Ocean. The northernmost site with good chronology, for which a sea ice concentration larger than 75 % is reconstructed even in summer, discriminates those models which simulate too little sea ice. However, the remaining models appear to simulate too much sea ice over the two sites south of the northernmost one, for which the reconstructed sea ice cover is seasonal. Hence models either underestimate or overestimate sea ice cover for the LIG, and their bias does not appear to be related to their bias for the pre-industrial period. Drivers for the inter-model differences are different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic Ocean, which are associated with differences in model albedo; possible cloud property differences, in terms of optical depth; and LIG ocean circulation changes which occur for some, but not all, LIG simulations. Finally, we note that inter-comparisons between the LIG simulations and simulations for future climate with moderate (1 %/yr) CO2 increase show a relationship between LIG sea ice and sea ice simulated under CO2 increase around the years of doubling CO2. The LIG may therefore yield insight into likely 21st century Arctic sea ice changes using these LIG simulations.

Arctic sea ice↗
NASA NTRS2020

MSL Telecom Automated Anomaly Detection

Deformation in the form of natural hazards like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides, to ecosystem disturbances, to changes in the cryosphere (measurements of polar ice caps, ice sheets and sea ice).

Bell, David↗