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DOE OSTI2024

Development of a Sulfur Tolerant CHG Process (CRADA 442) (Final Report)

The Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNNL) has developed the Catalytic Hydrothermal Gasification (CHG) technology, which can convert low-value organics dispersed in aqueous streams, such as the aqueous phase byproduct from hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of wet wastes, to a mixture of methane, H 2 , and CO 2 . The current CHG catalyst, ruthenium (Ru) on a graphite substrate, was selected for its effectiveness as a reducing catalyst. However, the target waste aqueous feedstock, the HTL aqueous phase from wet wastes, such as sewage sludge, contains a fair amount of sulfur in both organic and inorganic forms. Like many other reduced metal catalysts, Ru is deactivated or poisoned by exposure to sulfur, among other contaminants. In general, a deactivated Ru catalyst cannot be reactivated or restored except by removing and returning it for remanufacturing. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a sulfur-resistant catalyst to enable CHG processing of the HTL aqueous waste stream. PNNL, with support from SoCalGas CRADA, has developed a sulfur resistant CHG catalyst and demonstrated a stable CHG process for converting HTL aqueous phases from wet wastes. Here, we report the major accomplishments of the project: • We have demonstrated that sulfided Ru based catalysts is stable during CHG of HTL aqueous waste stream, with a requirement of activity improvement. • We have developed a new catalyst, with 0.5-2 wt.% Ru loading, showing better activity compared to the baseline 6.7 wt.% RuSx/C catalyst. • With the new catalysts, the single-pass COD reduction is approximately 60% and two-pass COD reduction can reach approximately 85%. • The process is robust in terms of being effective across a wide range of organic species in the feedstock. • Techno-economic analysis was conducted to evaluate the economic impact of catalyst advancement and identify further improvement requirements. This type of catalyst shows great potential to be efficient and robust for CHG with low catalyst cost.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Automatic detection of impact craters on Al foils from the Stardust interstellar dust collector using convolutional neural networks

NASA's Stardust mission utilized a sample collector composed of aerogel and aluminum foil to return cometary and interstellar particles to Earth. Analysis of the aluminum foil begins with locating craters produced by hypervelocity impacts of cometary and interstellar dust. Interstellar dust craters are typically less than one micrometer in size and are sparsely distributed, making them difficult to find. In this paper, we describe a convolutional neural network based on the VGG16 architecture that achieves high specificity and sensitivity in locating impact craters in the Stardust interstellar collector foils. Finally, we evaluate its implications for current and future analyses of Stardust samples.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Error and Correction Analysis for the FFA@CEBAF Energy Upgrade

An energy upgrade design for the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) is under development, using fixed field alternating gradient (FFA) return arcs to recirculate electron beam up to an additional five times through the accelerating structures at CEBAF. A necessary component of any large accelerator is a beam steering and optical correction system. Small environmental changes and system errors can lower beam quality or even shut down the machine; and in pursuit of the scientific mission of JLab, high quality electron beams must be delivered to the experimental halls on a predictable schedule. Correction in the novel FFA arcs of the current upgrade design is complicated by several factors. These complexities inform the choice of correction algorithm structure and parameter values. A baseline algorithm in addition to diagnostic and correction hardware configuration is presented. The effect of this correction protocol is shown with respect to estimated errors, and several possible extensions of the algorithm are discussed. This work presents an important proof of concept for the FFA@CEBAF design effort, and provides a functional correction strategy which may be simply adjusted and optimized for future design changes.

Coxe, Alex [Old Dominion Univ., Norfolk, VA (Unite↗

DOE OSTI2022

The False Dilemma: Rethinking AF Science and Technology Officer Talent Management

In 2019, Secretary of the Air Force (SECAF) Heather Wilson launched the 2030 Science and Technology (S&T) Strategy by stating, “The advantage will go to those who create the best technologies and who integrate and field them in creative operational ways that provide military advantages.” In 2021, 15% of Air Force general officers responsible for creating and integrating this technological edge had a science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) graduate degree, and less than 1% of generals had a STEM doctorate. As one point of comparison, at least 32% and 13% of founding CEOs of Fortune 500 technology companies had a master’s and doctoral STEM degree, respectively. The gulf is larger when you consider that these CEOs used their technical degrees throughout their careers whereas most general officers do not. In large organizations, if the leader does not possess technical knowledge, it is difficult to drive innovation systems and connect ideas to reality. The evidence for this disconnect is abundant in acquisition challenges for high-tech systems, significant pushback to the “revolution in military affairs”, and failure of the “Third Offset” to take hold and deliver capabilities to offset Chinese and Russian capabilities. Indeed, when the former Air Force and Space Force Chief Software Officer, Nicolas M. Chaillan, offered his resignation, one of the main reasons for leaving was “the failure of OSD and the Joint Staff to deliver on their own alleged top ‘priority’, JADC2 – they couldn’t ‘walk the walk.’” Senior leaders have recognized this disconnect, and several inquiries and studies regarding STEM competency have been conducted. Many have posed a false dilemma: a large, STEM-cognizant or small, STEM-expert force. However, current and future STEM human capital needs are managed at the unit and functional area level. This leads to “silos” and the tactical “needs of the present” dominating the strategic “needs of the future”, highlighted by only two functional areas systematically tracking future STEM needs. Therefore, the decision on force structure appears to have been historically made by default through these and other perceived structural realities, and a vast majority of recommendations have focused on the small STEM community – an exercise in diminishing returns. In essence, the solution often boils down to finding unicorns – officers that have chartered the unforgiving pathway through the traditional “gates” to general officer while obtaining sufficient STEM proficiency along the way. Fortunately for the Air Force, these officers exist, albeit at a rate below what the evidence would suggest is necessary. However, this approach fundamentally limits the ability to develop a deep pool of officers with the ability to create and integrate technologies and ensures the Dunning-Kruger effect is prevalent. The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias where those with limited knowledge in an area lack the expertise necessary to recognize their lack of expertise and consequently are prone to overestimate their knowledge and performance. In short, we need less leaders overestimating their STEM knowledge and more with hard-earned STEM competency required to “walk the walk” to create and integrate technologies for military advantage. This will not be accomplished by restricting the emphasis to the traditional scientists and engineering (S&E) career fields – the pool, only 10% of line officers, and general officer progression is just too small. Fortunately, the recent SECAF’s Management Initiatives and Chief of Staff’s (CSAF) Action Orders, both containing emphasis on organic expertise to “accrue advantage in military-technological competition,” present an opportunity to truly develop a framework for the force of the future.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

CFD Simulation of Floating Body Motion with Mooring Dynamics: Coupling MoorDyn with OpenFOAM

It is increasingly popular to use Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models to study floating structures subjected to ocean waves, especially when it comes to applications of floating offshore wind turbines and Wave Energy Converters (WECs). Mooring dynamics are currently lacking in most of these applications. This paper presents a coupled simulation study of moored floating body motion by coupling two open-source libraries: a finite volume CFD toolbox, OpenFOAM, and a lumped-mass mooring model, MoorDyn. The instantaneous floating body position and velocity are passed from the body motion solver in the CFD model to the mooring model to calculate the fairlead kinematics. The mooring reaction forces, which are calculated by MoorDyn after updating the mooring system states, are then returned to the body motion solver to update the floating body motion. Both mesh deformation and overset mesh methods are used as the mesh motion solver in the CFD model to account for the floating body motion. The coupled model was validated against experimental measurements for a floating box moored with four catenary lines under the action of regular waves, which came from a preliminary test campaign for WECs. Apart from the lumped-mass mooring model, the present work also coupled a quasi-static mooring model and a finite element model with the floating body motion solver in OpenFOAM. The mooring line tensions predicted by these models were compared. The coupled model equipped with three mooring line codes may be further used to carry out survivability studies of FOWTs and WECs subject to severe sea states.

floating body↗

DOE OSTI2022

Economic and biophysical limits to seaweed farming for climate change mitigation

Net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets are driving interest in opportunities for biomass-based negative emissions and bioenergy, including from marine sources such as seaweed. Yet the biophysical and economic limits to farming seaweed at scales relevant to the global carbon budget have not been assessed in detail. We use coupled seaweed growth and technoeconomic models to estimate the costs of global seaweed production and related climate benefits, systematically testing the relative importance of model parameters. Under our most optimistic assumptions, sinking farmed seaweed to the deep sea to sequester a gigaton of CO 2 per year costs as little as US$\$$480 per tCO 2 on average, while using farmed seaweed for products that avoid a gigaton of CO 2 -equivalent GHG emissions annually could return a profit of $\$$50 per tCO 2 -eq. However, these costs depend on low farming costs, high seaweed yields, and assumptions that almost all carbon in seaweed is removed from the atmosphere (that is, competition between phytoplankton and seaweed is negligible) and that seaweed products can displace products with substantial embodied non-CO 2 GHG emissions. Moreover, the gigaton-scale climate benefits we model would require farming very large areas (>90,000 km 2 )—a >30-fold increase in the area currently farmed. Our results therefore suggest that seaweed-based climate benefits may be feasible, but targeted research and demonstrations are needed to further reduce economic and biophysical uncertainties.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

HEMP Testing of Substation Yard Circuit Breaker Control and Protective Relay Circuits

There are concerns about the effects of High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulses (HEMP) on the electric power grid. Activities to date tested and analyzed vulnerability of digital protective relays (DPRs) used in power substations, but the effect of HEMP on the greater substation environment is not well known. This work establishes a method of testing the vulnerability of circuit breaker control and protective relay circuits to the radiated E1 pulse associated with HEMP based on coupling to the cables in a substation yard. Two DPRs from Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories, Inc. were independently tested. The test setup also included a typical cable in a substation yard with return plane to emulate the ground grid and other ground conductors near the yard cable, cabinetry housing the installed DPRs, station battery and battery charger, terminal block elements, and a breaker simulator to emulate a substation yard configuration. The DPRs were powered from the station battery and the transformer inputs energized with a three-phase source to maintain typical operating conditions during the tests. Vulnerability testing consisted of a conducted E1 pulse injected into the center of the yard cable of the DPR circuits. Current measurements on the yard cable and DPR inputs indicated significant attenuation of the conducted pulse arriving at the control house equipment from the emulated substation yard. This reduction was quantified with respect to the equivalent open-circuit voltage on the yard cable. No equipment damage or undesired operation occurred on the tested circuits for values below 180 kV, which is significantly higher than the anticipated coupling to a substation yard cable.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Big Data For Operation and Maintenance Cost Reduction

The purpose of this research is to develop a first-of-a-kind framework for integrating Big Data capability into the daily activities of our current fleet of nuclear power plants. Big Data is traditionally defined as data sets with high volume, velocity, and heterogeneity, and the existing Big Data analytics capabilities are now widely popular in fields such as finance, weather, e-commerce, healthcare and sports. In the nuclear industry, while the volume and velocity of data may present computational challenges for existing analytics capabilities, data heterogeneity are seen to present the major challenge. This research project mainly focuses on incorporating the wide range of data heterogeneities in nuclear power plants into an integrated Big Data Analytics capability. The primary end-product of this project is a Big Data framework that is capable of dealing with the large volume and heterogeneity of the data found in nuclear power plants to extract timely and valuable information on equipment performance. The framework can generate system insights that are actionable relations between measurable impacts and the corresponding maintenance action plans and enable optimization of plant operation and maintenance based on the extracted information. The developed framework is capable of handling heterogeneous data including both image data and time-series sensor data. Specifically, this developed framework includes the following components. The first component is an overarching maintenance ontology which includes system insights required by maintenance optimization. The maintenance ontology interacts with other components in the developed framework. The second component handles Piping & Instrumentation Diagram (P&ID) data. It can be used to extract system components and their relations automatically from the P&IDs. This extracted information is stored in the first component, i.e., maintenance ontology, and is also used as input to the third component, i.e., a tool for generating the fault tree for the corresponding system. The generated fault tree in turn is stored in the ontology for assessing risk that is used as a criterion in maintenance policy optimization. The fourth component is a tool for inferring the parameters in the Markov degradation model for a nuclear system. It uses basic information from the ontology. The fifth component is a tool for assessing the degradation level using sensor measurement data, for example, pressure, flowrate. This tool can be used for determining corrective maintenance actions. The results obtained from components four and five are returned to the ontology. The sixth component of the framework is a tool for optimizing the maintenance policy for a nuclear system of interest. It takes certain basic information from the ontology, e.g., costs of maintenance actions and system failures, as input, and returns the optimal maintenance policy to the ontology. This tool can be used for determining predictive maintenance actions. A set of experiments have also been conducted to verify the algorithms developed in this project for nuclear system degradation monitoring. The experiments are based on four solenoid valves, similar to the ones used in nuclear power plants. The analyses based on the experimental data using two algorithms, i.e., the Randomized Window Decomposition (RWD) algorithm and the particle filtering algorithm, and the results are introduced in the report. The Big Data framework developed in this project can be used as a support tool in daily activities of plant operation and maintenance and will reduce current costs while maintaining or improving safety levels. Overall, the project will not only benefit existing reactors, however it will open new frontiers to realize the long overdue value of Big Data Analytics in the nuclear sphere.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electrochemistry of Praseodymium in Aqueous Solution Using a Liquid Gallium Cathode

We report the electrochemistry of liquid Ga electrodes in aqueous media was examined in the presence of praseodymium acetate (PrOAc) as an alternate path for low temperature reduction of rare earth elements (REE). This study investigated the aqueous electrochemistry of Ga with and without REEs (Pr). Cyclic voltammetry experiments showed that in the presence of PrOAc, an order of magnitude increase in cathodic current was observed for the Ga electrode, compared to that in the absence of Pr. Decrease in the reduction current with the increase of scan rate, with and without Pr, suggests catalytic reactions following electron transfer, which was attributed to the Ga 2 O disproportionation reaction. Chronoamperometric experiments performed in Pr containing solutions formed a precipitate. Over 50% of the Pr ions from the aqueous electrolyte were immobilized in the precipitate; a solid Ga-rich phase. Formation of this precipitate was only possible when Ga oxidation was induced. This condition was achieved by circulation of liquid Ga from the pool via external pump and returned dropwise to the liquid Ga pool. When the collected precipitate was leached in dilute HCl, Pr was released with H 2 evolved as a byproduct, and Ga returned to its initial liquid metallic state. These preliminary results show encouraging new routes that could be applied for the recovery of diluted REE leachates, such as those obtained from magnets, coal fly ash, and ores.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Generalized Transformer-Based Pulse Detection Algorithm

Pulse-like signals are ubiquitous in the field of single molecule analysis, e.g., electrical or optical pulses caused by analyte translocations in nanopores. The primary challenge in processing pulse-like signals is to capture the pulses in noisy backgrounds, but current methods are subjectively based on a user-defined threshold for pulse recognition. Here, we propose a generalized machine-learning based method, named pulse detection transformer (PETR), for pulse detection. PETR determines the start and end time points of individual pulses, thereby singling out pulse segments in a time-sequential trace. It is objective without needing to specify any threshold. It provides a generalized interface for downstream algorithms for specific application scenarios. PETR is validated using both simulated and experimental nanopore translocation data. It returns a competitive performance in detecting pulses through assessing them with several standard metrics. Finally, the generalization nature of the PETR output is demonstrated using two representative algorithms for feature extraction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bifacial Photovoltaic Modules and Systems: Experience and Results from International Research and Pilot Applications

Within the framework of IEA PVPS, Task 13 aims to provide support to market actors working to improve the operation, the reliability and the quality of PV components and systems. Operational data from PV systems in different climate zones compiled within the project will help provide the basis for estimates of the current situation regarding PV reliability and performance. The general setting of Task 13 provides a common platform to summarize and report on technical aspects affecting the quality, performance, reliability and lifetime of PV systems in a wide variety of environments and applications. By working together across national boundaries we can all take advantage of research and experience from each member country and combine and integrate this knowledge into valuable summaries of best practices and methods for ensuring PV systems perform at their optimum and continue to provide competitive return on investment. Task 13 has so far managed to create the right framework for the calculations of various parameters that can give an indication of the quality of PV components and systems. The framework is now there and can be used by the industry who has expressed appreciation towards the results included in the high-quality reports. The IEA PVPS countries participating in Task 13 are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, and the United States of America.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Designing New Materials for Photovoltaics: Opportunities for Lowering Cost and Increasing Performance through Advanced Material Innovations

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data Selection Improvement For MicroBooNE

Data selection is an extremely important part of data analysis for any experiment. Finding a physics result is often the result of sifting through a massive amount of data, keeping data that we believe to be signal, and throwing out data we do not. This process is called data selection. Creating a selection algorithm is an intensive process that must balance keeping enough data to have statistics and maximizing the signal purity of that data. We also need to choose the right reconstruction method, a tool to take raw data from the detector and convert it into physics results. In this study, we used three different reconstruction tools, Pandora, WireCell, and LANTERN, for the MicroBooNE experiment in conjunction to improve the selection algorithm for analysis. For the case of this study, we look into the charged current N proton 0 pions (CCNp0$\pi$) interaction channel. This is the dominant channel for the Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program and is expected to be a large contributor to the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). We first investigated each of the three tools to find out more about their strengths and weaknesses as reconstructions, and compared them to the truth information directly from the MicroBooNE simulation pipeline. We then put together a direct comparison of the three methods to find which method or combination of methods would return the best result for us. While the study is ongoing, we have learned a lot about data selection for the experiment and the differences between the reconstruction tools.

Dillon, Brayden [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2020

Distributed Solar Quality and Safety in India: Key Challenges and Potential Solutions

The quality and safety of solar systems and their installation has become a concern for investors, regulators, consumers, and Discoms in India. The push for low prices and lack of quality standards are driving project developers to install low quality products, with poor system design and execution on-site. Existing literature and stakeholder interviews point to the rampant use of low quality, sub-standard solar products in India. These products deliver less energy than expected, or have high detrition rates, or have lower product life–all of which are serious issues for developers whose return on investment depend on the amount of power generation from these solar systems for the expected life of the project. Equipment which does not conform to the minimum quality standards also creates safety risks for the distribution network. Performance and safety concerns lower investor and consumer confidence in solar products with the potential to threaten market development. This report formulates a set of recommendations to concerned authorities in India to improve the quality and safety of rooftop solar systems. Primary and secondary sources are employed to understand the current solar quality and safety scenario in India to provide the basis for future recommendations. An overview of international experiences and lessons learned on solar quality and safety issues is also conducted to understand potential solutions for India.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Energy Transition: Advanced Nuclear Needed but Address Climate Vulnerabilities Now

The term “Energy Transition” is an attempt to capture an elaborate set of activities related to the modernization and decarbonization of energy grids. Performed concurrently and often in an ad hoc manner across local, state, regional and national boundaries, it is bringing chaos to what should arguably be one of the most conservatively managed of all critical infrastructure sectors. What’s more, with climate change producing an increasing tempo of extreme events, confidence in the intended resilient and redundant structure of the electric grids is likely to ebb. Even without these climate induced stressors, the nation’s electric grid was built for an earlier century. In addition to a drive towards greater efficiency via digitization and a continuing price decline in distributed energy resources (DERs), one could argue that climate change concerns are the primary driver of the energy transition. Non-CO2 emitting generation sources like wind and solar have become an important part of the overall generation fleet, albeit ones that cannot be counted upon to provide dispatchable power. Current projections indicate deployment of even larger percentages of DERs in coming years. Until far better storage capabilities arrive, the variability of wind and solar, inconsistent performance of traditional thermal generation plants, and energy delivery failures associated with natural gas pipelines will reinforce mounting reliability concerns. This pertains to both electric transmission and distribution. The recent shuttering of nuclear power plants in Germany, Japan, the US and elsewhere are also putting more downward pressure on dispatchable generation. Russia’s attack on Ukraine has roiled energy markets worldwide and forced some countries to return to coal as a primary fuel. In view circumstances such as these, it is essential that significant changes be made to policies and planning criteria, and to the standards and code on which they are based. Given the accelerating pace of extreme weather events, this needs to occur as soon as possible.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

MSTAR2019 Code Description and User's Manual

This report describes an ideal cascade model of uranium enrichment that includes side feed and side product streams and flexible input options. It is based on the original MSTAR model developed by Ed Von Halle and implemented in a Visual Basic code. The current version allows the user to specify integer numbers of stages or the stage numbers of external flows instead of assays in those flows. The computational engine is written in FORTRAN-90 and is invoked by a user-friendly GUI written in C++. This version of MSTAR has been demonstrated to operate on Linux, Mac, and Windows platforms, and has undergone significant testing and quality analysis. A number of examples are presented to illustrate the operation of the code and guide the user. The code is extremely fast, and results are returned immediately. The input and output have been specially configured for analysis by the environmental sampling team of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). A number of additional output features are included to assist the user in visualizing computational results and downloading data to files for use in other analysis software.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Density Dependence in Three Snake River Sockeye Salmon Nursery Lakes in Central Idaho

Abstract Snake River Sockeye Salmon Oncorhynchus nerka, listed as an endangered species in 1991, currently inhabit three nursery lakes (Redfish, Pettit, and Alturas lakes) in the Sawtooth Valley, Idaho. Conspecific kokanee (lacustrine Sockeye Salmon) are also present in the lakes. Snake River Sockeye Salmon recovery efforts, initially focused on genetic conservation, are now attempting to rebuild naturally spawning populations using hatchery supplementation. However, in Sockeye Salmon nursery lakes, density dependence is frequently observed when elevated O. nerka abundance leads to declines in zooplankton biomass, body size, and shifts in community composition. In turn, these changes lead to reductions in juvenile O. nerka growth rates, survival, and adult returns. We examined a long-term data set of O. nerka population metrics and associated zooplankton community metrics. We found evidence of density dependence within and among nursery lakes. We detected differences in zooplankton biomass, lengths of preferred zooplankton prey (Daphnia spp. and cyclopoid copepods), parr growth rates, and age-1 smolt size among the three lakes. We found negative relationships between O. nerka density and zooplankton biomass and size. We identified positive relationships between zooplankton biomass and two response variables: smolt size at migration and growth rates of hatchery parr. The relationships were generally similar among lakes. Variable outcomes were a result of differences in O. nerka density (or zooplankton biomass), controlled primarily by the relative proportion of spawning and rearing habitat in each lake. Understanding unique lake habitats, ecological interactions, and the role of density dependence is germane to management of Snake River Sockeye Salmon populations.

Griswold, Robert G.↗