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At least 199 records · Page 11

A Linearized Prognostic Cloud Scheme in NASAs Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation Tools

A linearized prognostic cloud scheme has been developed to accompany the linearized convection scheme recently implemented in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation tools. The linearization, developed from the nonlinear cloud scheme, treats cloud variables prognostically so they are subject to linearized advection, diffusion, generation, and evaporation. Four linearized cloud variables are modeled, the ice and water phases of clouds generated by large-scale condensation and, separately, by detraining convection. For each species the scheme models their sources, sublimation, evaporation, and autoconversion. Large-scale, anvil and convective species of precipitation are modeled and evaporated. The cloud scheme exhibits linearity and realistic perturbation growth, except around the generation of clouds through large-scale condensation. Discontinuities and steep gradients are widely used here and severe problems occur in the calculation of cloud fraction. For data assimilation applications this poor behavior is controlled by replacing this part of the scheme with a perturbation model. For observation impacts, where efficiency is less of a concern, a filtering is developed that examines the Jacobian. The replacement scheme is only invoked if Jacobian elements or eigenvalues violate a series of tuned constants. The linearized prognostic cloud scheme is tested by comparing the linear and nonlinear perturbation trajectories for 6-, 12-, and 24-h forecast times. The tangent linear model performs well and perturbations of clouds are well captured for the lead times of interest.

Precipitation↗

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation: Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Project Assessment Report for the Beta-Release L4_SM Data Product - Volume 40

During the post-launch SMAP calibration and validation (Cal/Val) phase there are two objectives for each science data product team: 1) calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithm, and 2) validate the accuracy of the science data product as specified in the science requirements and according to the Cal/Val schedule. This report provides an assessment of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture Passive (L4_SM) product specifically for the product's public beta release scheduled for 30 October 2015. The primary objective of the beta release is to allow users to familiarize themselves with the data product before the validated product becomes available. The beta release also allows users to conduct their own assessment of the data and to provide feedback to the L4_SM science data product team. The assessment of the L4_SM data product includes comparisons of SMAP L4_SM soil moisture estimates with in situ soil moisture observations from core validation sites and sparse networks. The assessment further includes a global evaluation of the internal diagnostics from the ensemble-based data assimilation system that is used to generate the L4_SM product. This evaluation focuses on the statistics of the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals and the analysis increments. Together, the core validation site comparisons and the statistics of the assimilation diagnostics are considered primary validation methodologies for the L4_SM product. Comparisons against in situ measurements from regional-scale sparse networks are considered a secondary validation methodology because such in situ measurements are subject to upscaling errors from the point-scale to the grid cell scale of the data product. Based on the limited set of core validation sites, the assessment presented here meets the criteria established by the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites for Stage 1 validation and supports the beta release of the data. The validation against sparse network measurements and the evaluation of the assimilation diagnostics address Stage 2 validation criteria by expanding the assessment to regional and global scales.

ubRMSE↗

CATS Version 2 Aerosol Feature Detection and Applications for Data Assimilation

The Cloud Aerosol Transport System (CATS) lidar has been operating onboard the International Space Station (ISS) since February 2015 and provides vertical observations of clouds and aerosols using total attenuated backscatter and depolarization measurements. From February March 2015, CATS operated in Mode 1, providing backscatter and depolarization measurements at 532 and 1064 nm. CATS began operation in Mode 2 in March 2015, providing backscatter and depolarization measurements at 1064 nm and has continued to operate to the present in this mode. CATS level 2 products are derived from these measurements, including feature detection, cloud aerosol discrimination, cloud and aerosol typing, and optical properties of cloud and aerosol layers. Here, we present changes to our level 2 algorithms, which were aimed at reducing several biases in our version 1 level 2 data products. These changes will be incorporated into our upcoming version 2 level 2 data release in summer 2017. Additionally, owing to the near real time (NRT) data downlinking capabilities of the ISS, CATS provides expedited NRT data products within 6 hours of observation time. This capability provides a unique opportunity for supporting field campaigns and for developing data assimilation techniques to improve simulated cloud and aerosol vertical distributions in models. We additionally present preliminary work toward assimilating CATS observations into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) global atmospheric model and data assimilation system.

data assimilation↗

Identifying and Addressing Land Surface Model Deficiencies with Data Assimilation

Land surface models (LSMs) encapsulate our understanding of terrestrial water and energy cycle physics and provide estimates of land surface states and fluxes when and where measurement gaps exist. Gaps in our understanding of the physics are a different issue. Data assimilation can address that issue both directly, through updating of prognostic model variables, or indirectly, when the simulated world conflicts with observation, necessitating adjustment of the model. Here we will focus on the latter case and present several examples, including (1) depth to bedrock adjustment to accommodate assimilated GRACE terrestrial water storage data; (2) steps to prevent immediate melting of assimilated snow cover; (3) irrigation's contribution to evapotranspiration; (4) lessons learned from soil moisture data assimilation; (5) the potential impact of satellite based runoff observation

Rodell, Matthew↗

Applications of Constituent Data Assimilation Systems

Organizations in Europe, Australia, and the United States have recently broadened constituent assimilation activities beyond that water vapor, which has been assimilated for years in the numerical weather prediction community. Many of these activities have focused on ozone, with some efforts focused on the entire suite of reactive constituents that control the ozone distribution. This talk will draw from results from the near real-time ozone data assimilation system being run by NASA's Data Assimilation Office. This system utilizes ozone observations from both the TOMS and the SBUV instrument to generate global synoptic maps of ozone. The initial application of this product is to provide ozone fields to assist in the atmospheric corrections' that are necessary for the retrieval of information from other NASA instruments. The validation of the ozone assimilation system shows that the assimilated product agrees well with independent HALOE and ozonesonde observations. This suggests that the product is of sufficient quality to be extended to other applications. This talk will enumerate these other applications and present initial results from exploratory research. The applications being considered include estimates of tropospheric ozone, provision of ozone fields for interactive retrievals, use of analysis increments from the assimilation to evaluate model performance, and development of long-term consistent three-dimensional global ozone fields. The results from the exploratory studies are promising, and help demonstrate how assumptions made in the p development of the ozone assimilation impact the other applications. For instance, RMS errors in the current product are large near the tropopause, which is sensitive to the specification of vertical correlation functions, which in turns impacts the amount of ozone analyzed to be in the troposphere. How these sensitivities impact the different applications will also be discussed.

Rood, Richard B.↗

The Anomalous 2019 Antarctic Ozone Hole in the GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation System With MLS Observations

A rare disturbance of the stratospheric Antarctic polar vortex in September 2019 led to a significantly higher than usual polar total ozone column. We use assimilation of ozone, HCl, and N2O data from the Microwave Limb Sounder with the Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) Constituent Data Assimilation System driven by reanalysis meteorology to study the evolution of the 2019 Antarctic polar ozone. We find that the maximum 2019 ozone hole area was near 10 × 10(exp 6) ksq.m, and as little as 20% of that in 2018 in mid‐September. However, the magnitude of vortex‐averaged chemical ozone depletion was not significantly different between the 2 years despite earlier chlorine deactivation in 2019. The assimilation results show that most of the differences between 2018 and 2019 Antarctic ozone resulted from two factors: (1) the geometry of the 2019 vortex, with ozone‐rich middle‐stratospheric air masses overlying the lower portion of the vortex and leading to a significant reduction of the total column, and (2) significantly reduced vortex volume. The anomalously small ozone hole of 2019 was comparable in size to the record breaking 2002 case and the mechanisms responsible were similar in the two cases. While the 2019 sudden stratospheric warming is classified as minor, its impact on ozone was very significant.

Krzysztof Wargan↗

Sensitivity of Middle Atmospheric Analyses to the Representation of Gravity-Wave Drag in the DAO's Data Assimilation System

The damping of mesoscale gravity waves has important effects on the global circulation, structure, and composition of the atmosphere. A number of assimilation and forecast experiments have been conducted to examine the sensitivity of meteorological analyses and forecasts to the representation of gravity wave impacts in a data assimilation system (DAS). The experiments were conducted with the Finite-Volume (FV) DAS developed at NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO), The main purpose of this research is to determine the optimal combination of wave number, phase speed, wavelength, etc. for representing gravity-wave drag (GWD) in FVDAS. The GWD included in FVDAS includes a spectrum of waves, as would be forced by topography and transient motions (e.g., convection) in the troposphere. The sensitivity experiments are performed by modifying several parameters, such as the number of waves allowed, their wavelength, the background stress amplitude, etc. The results show that the assimilated fields are very sensitive to the number of gravity waves represented in the system, especially at high latitudes of the middle and upper stratosphere and mesosphere in winter. The analyzed stratopause temperature varies by up to 10K when the GWD scheme is modified from a multiple-wave scheme (using a stationary wave and waves with phase speeds of 10, 20, 30 and 40 m/s in each direction) to a single, stationary wave. Insight into the reality of the various versions of the GWD can be obtained by examining the "Observation minus Forecast" residuals from the FVDAS.

Li, Shuhua↗

A Pacific Ocean general circulation model for satellite data assimilation

A tropical Pacific Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) to be used in satellite data assimilation studies is described. The transfer of the OGCM from a CYBER-205 at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to a CRAY-2 at NASA's Ames Research Center is documented. Two 3-year model integrations from identical initial conditions but performed on those two computers are compared. The model simulations are very similar to each other, as expected, but the simulations performed with the higher-precision CRAY-2 is smoother than that with the lower-precision CYBER-205. The CYBER-205 and CRAY-2 use 32 and 64-bit mantissa arithmetic, respectively. The major features of the oceanic circulation in the tropical Pacific, namely the North Equatorial Current, the North Equatorial Countercurrent, the South Equatorial Current, and the Equatorial Undercurrent, are realistically produced and their seasonal cycles are described. The OGCM provides a powerful tool for study of tropical oceans and for the assimilation of satellite altimetry data.

Chao, Y.↗

SMOS Soil Moisture Data Assimilation in the NASA Land Information System: Impact on LSM Initialization and NWP Forecasts

Land surface models are important components of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, partitioning incoming energy into latent and sensitive heat fluxes that affect boundary layer growth and destabilization. During warm-season months, diurnal heating and convective initiation depend strongly on evapotranspiration and available boundary layer moisture, which are substantially affected by soil moisture content. Therefore, to properly simulate warm-season processes in NWP models, an accurate initialization of the land surface state is important for accurately depicting the exchange of heat and moisture between the surface and boundary layer. In this study, soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite radiometer are assimilated into the Noah Land Surface Model via an Ensemble Kalman Filter embedded within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) software framework. The output from LIS-Noah is subsequently used to initialize runs of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) NWP model. The impact of assimilating SMOS retrievals is assessed by initializing the WRF model with LIS-Noah output obtained with and without SMOS data assimilation. The southeastern United States is used as the domain for a preliminary case study. During the summer months, there is extensive irrigation in the lower Mississippi Valley for rice and other crops. The irrigation is not represented in the meteorological forcing used to drive the LIS-Noah integration, but the irrigated areas show up clearly in the SMOS soil moisture retrievals, resulting in a case with a large difference in initial soil moisture conditions. The impact of SMOS data assimilation on both Noah soil moisture fields and on short-term (0-48 hour) WRF weather forecasts will be presented.

Blankenship, Clay↗

Improving Surface Soil Moisture Estimates in West Africa Through GRACE Data Assimilation

Recent annual trends of precipitation and terrestrial water storage (TWS) in West Africa have been increasing over the past decade. Despite a significant impact of soil moisture on the TWS in West Africa, there is little research on the recent spatial and temporal behaviors of surface soil moisture (SSM) along with the hydrological trends and variability in West Africa. In this study, we assimilate TWS estimates from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission into the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) and evaluate its impacts on SSM simulations for the years, 2002–2017. The evaluation is performed using reference datasets: the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) in situ soil moisture observations, three currently available microwave satellite SSM observations from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellites and also the triple collocation analysis (TCA). Overall, modeled SSM shows good agreement with the reference datasets in terms of the anomaly SSM correlations. However, both modeled and ASCAT SSM are limited in their representation of the drying rates, as observed by ground observations, SMOS and SMAP estimates. Further, GRACE data assimilation results in improved SSM simulations in the humid regions with large annual TWS variability. This study demonstrates the utility of land data assimilation to inform hydrological conditions in West Africa, where soil moisture monitoring is necessary for water resource and livestock management.

West Africa↗

Simplification of the Kalman filter for meteorological data assimilation

The paper proposes a new statistical method of data assimilation that is based on a simplification of the Kalman filter equations. The forecast error covariance evolution is approximated simply by advecting the mass-error covariance field, deriving the remaining covariances geostrophically, and accounting for external model-error forcing only at the end of each forecast cycle. This greatly reduces the cost of computation of the forecast error covariance. In simulations with a linear, one-dimensional shallow-water model and data generated artificially, the performance of the simplified filter is compared with that of the Kalman filter and the optimal interpolation (OI) method. The simplified filter produces analyses that are nearly optimal, and represents a significant improvement over OI.

Dee, Dick P.↗

Exploring the Utility of Machine Learning-Based Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Data Assimilation over Terrestrial Snow in High Mountain Asia

This study explores the use of a support vector machine (SVM) as the observation operator within a passive microwave brightness temperature data assimilation framework (herein SVM-DA) to enhance the characterization of snow water equivalent (SWE) over High Mountain Asia (HMA). A series of synthetic twin experiments were conducted with the NASA Land Information System (LIS) at a number of locations across HMA. Overall, the SVM-DA framework is effective at improving SWE estimates (~70% reduction in RMSE relative to the Open Loop) for SWE depths less than 200 mm during dry snowpack conditions. The SVM-DA framework also improves SWE estimates in deep, wet snow (~45% reduction in RMSE) when snow liquid water is well estimated by the land surface model, but can lead to model degradation when snow liquid water estimates diverge from values used during SVM training. In particular, two key challenges of using the SVM-DA framework were observed over deep, wet snowpacks. First, variations in snow liquid water content dominate the brightness temperature spectral difference (TB) signal associated with emission from a wet snowpack, which can lead to abrupt changes in SWE during the analysis update. Second, the ensemble of SVM-based predictions can collapse (i.e., yield a near-zero standard deviation across the ensemble) when prior estimates of snow are outside the range of snow inputs used during the SVM training procedure. Such a scenario can lead to the presence of spurious error correlations between SWE and TB, and as a consequence, can result in degraded SWE estimates from the analysis update. These degraded analysis updates can be largely mitigated by applying rule-based approaches. For example, restricting the SWE update when the standard deviation of the predicted TB is greater than 0.05 K helps prevent the occurrence of filter divergence. Similarly, adding a thin layer (i.e., 5 mm) of SWE when the synthetic TB is larger than 5 K can improve SVM-DA performance in the presence of a precipitation dry bias. The study demonstrates that a carefully constructed SVM-DA framework cognizant of the inherent limitations of passive microwave-based SWE estimation holds promise for snow mass data assimilation.

Kwon, Yonghwan↗

Considerations for Using Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation in NASA-GMAO's Next Reanalysis System

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) is the latest reanalysis produced by GMAO, and provides global data spanning the period 1980-present. The atmospheric data assimilation component of MERRA-2 used a 3D-Var scheme, which was operational at the time of its design. Since then, a Hybrid 3D-Var, then a Hybrid 4D-EnVar were implemented, adding an ensemble component to the data assimilation scheme. In this work, we will be examining the benefits of using hybrid ensemble flow-dependent covariances to represent errors and uncertainties in historic periods. Specifically, periods of pre- and post-satellites, as well as periods of active tropical cyclone seasons. Finally, we will also be exploring the use of adaptive localization scales.

MERRA-↗

Benefits and Pitfalls of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Data Assimilation

Satellite observations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission have a coarse resolution in time (monthly) and space (roughly 150,000 sq km at midlatitudes) and vertically integrate all water storage components over land, including soil moisture and groundwater. Nonetheless, data assimilation can be used to horizontally downscale and vertically partition GRACE-TWS observations. This presentation illustrates some of the benefits and drawbacks of assimilating TWS observations from GRACE into a land surface model over the continental United States and India. The assimilation scheme yields improved skill metrics for groundwater compared to the no-assimilation simulations. A smaller impact is seen for surface and root-zone soil moisture. Further, GRACE observes TWS depletion associated with anthropogenic groundwater extraction. Results from the assimilation emphasize the importance of representing anthropogenic processes in land surface modeling and data assimilation systems.

TWS↗

Evaluation of Bogus Vortex Techniques Using Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation

The effectiveness of a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4-DVAR) technique for creating "bogus" vortices in numerical simulations of hurricanes is evaluated in this study. A series of numerical experiments is conducted to generate initial vortices for Hurricane Georges and Bonnie (1998) in the Atlantic Ocean by assimilating bogus sea-level pressure and wind information into a mesoscale numerical model (MM5). Several different strategies are tested for investigating the sensitivity of the initial vortex representation to the type of bogus information.

Pu, Zhao-Xia↗

A Variable-Resolution Stretched-Grid General Circulation Model and Data Assimilation System with Multiple Areas of Interest: Studying the Anomalous Regional Climate Events of 1998

The new stretched-grid design with multiple (four) areas of interest, one at each global quadrant, is implemented into both a stretched-grid GCM (general circulation model) and a stretched-grid data assimilation system (DAS). The four areas of interest include: the U.S./Northern Mexico, the El Nino area/Central South America, India/China, and the Eastern Indian Ocean/Australia. Both the stretched-grid GCM and DAS annual (November 1997 through December 1998) integrations are performed with 50 km regional resolution. The efficient regional down-scaling to mesoscales is obtained for each of the four areas of interest while the consistent interactions between regional and global scales and the high quality of global circulation, are preserved. This is the advantage of the stretched-grid approach. The global variable resolution DAS incorporating the stretched-grid GCM has been developed and tested as an efficient tool for producing regional analyses and diagnostics with enhanced mesoscale resolution. The anomalous regional climate events of 1998 that occurred over the U.S., Mexico, South America, China, India, African Sahel, and Australia are investigated in both simulation and data assimilation modes. Tree assimilated products are also used, along with gauge precipitation data, for validating the simulation results. The obtained results show that the stretched-grid GCM and DAS are capable of producing realistic high quality simulated and assimilated products at mesoscale resolution for regional climate studies and applications.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗

Data Assimilation Cycling for Weather Analysis

This software package runs the atmospheric model MM5 in data assimilation cycling mode to produce an optimized weather analysis, including the ability to insert or adjust a hurricane vortex. The program runs MM5 through a cycle of short forecasts every three hours where the vortex is adjusted to match the observed hurricane location and storm intensity. This technique adjusts the surrounding environment so that the proper steering current and environmental shear are achieved. MM5cycle uses a Cressman analysis to blend observation into model fields to get a more accurate weather analysis. Quality control of observations is also done in every cycle to remove bad data that may contaminate the analysis. This technique can assimilate and propagate data in time from intermittent and infrequent observations while maintaining the atmospheric field in a dynamically balanced state. The software consists of a C-shell script (MM5cycle.driver) and three FORTRAN programs (splitMM5files.F, comRegrid.F, and insert_vortex.F), and are contained in the pre-processor component of MM5 called "Regridder." The model is first initialized with data from a global model such as the Global Forecast System (GFS), which also provides lateral boundary conditions. These data are separated into single-time files using splitMM5.F. The hurricane vortex is then bogussed in the correct location and with the correct wind field using insert_vortex.F. The modified initial and boundary conditions are then recombined into the model fields using comRegrid.F. The model then makes a three-hour forecast. The three-hour forecast data from MM5 now become the analysis for the next short forecast run, where the vortex will again be adjusted. The process repeats itself until the desired time of analysis is achieved. This code can also assimilate observations if desired.

Tran, Nam↗

Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Data Assimilation Using NASA GEOS: Estimation of Air-Sea Interface State Variables

Air-sea interface variables, such as the skin Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are essential for atmosphere-ocean coupling. In the NASA GMAO Data Assimilation System (DAS), the skin SST and 3-D atmospheric state are jointly estimated [1]. This presentation is focused on the prior or background error covariance that is used in this analysis. The GEOS DAS uses an ensemble-variational assimilation strategy. In that, specification of a climatological background (CB) error covariance for SST relies on the NOAA's OI SST, with estimates of standard deviation and correlation length scales based on weekly analyses of the bulk SST at 1 degree resolution. However, present analysis system is striving to resolve SST diurnal variability with six hourly analyses and assimilates a vast number of in-situ and satellite observations. The first part of this presentation re-derives the CB error covariance using OSTIA SST analyses and illustrates the impact of this update on assimilating satellite observations. In a hybrid assimilation system the CB error covariances are appended with a flow-dependent background error covariance estimate implied by the underlying ensemble. The second part of this presentation refers to: a. treatment of the skin SST in the ensemble members, b. corresponding ensemble spread, and c. impact of these additions on the data assimilation system. [1] S. Akella, et al. (2017), doi:10.1002/qj.2988

Akella, Santha↗