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Crew collaboration in space: a naturalistic decision-making perspective

Successful long-duration space missions will depend on the ability of crewmembers to respond promptly and effectively to unanticipated problems that arise under highly stressful conditions. Naturalistic decision making (NDM) exploits the knowledge and experience of decision makers in meaningful work domains, especially complex sociotechnical systems, including aviation and space. Decision making in these ambiguous, dynamic, high-risk environments is a complex task that involves defining the nature of the problem and crafting a response to achieve one's goals. Goal conflicts, time pressures, and uncertain outcomes may further complicate the process. This paper reviews theory and research pertaining to the NDM model and traces some of the implications for space crews and other groups that perform meaningful work in extreme environments. It concludes with specific recommendations for preparing exploration crews to use NDM effectively.

Review, Tutorial↗

Risk-based analysis and decision making in multi-disciplinary environments

A risk-based decision-making process conceived of and developed at JPL and NASA, has been used to help plan and guide novel technology applications for use on spacecraft. These applications exemplify key challenges inherent in multi-disciplinary design of novel technologies deployed in mission-critical settings. 1) Cross-disciplinary concerns are numerous (e.g., spacecraft involve navigation, propulsion, telecommunications). These concems are cross-coupled and interact in multiple ways (e.g., electromagnetic interference, heat transfer). 2) Time and budget pressures constrain development, operational resources constrain the resulting system (e.g., mass, volume, power). 3) Spacecraft are critical systems that must operate correctly the first time in only partially understood environments, with no chance for repair. 4) Past experience provides only a partial guide: New mission concepts are enhanced and enabled by new technologies, for which past experience is lacking. The decision-making process rests on quantitative assessments of the relationships between three classes of information - objectives (the things the system is to accomplish and constraints on its operation and development), risks (whose occurrence detracts from objectives), and mitigations (options for reducing the likelihood and or severity of risks). The process successfully guides experts to pool their knowledge, using custom-built software to support information gathering and decision-making.

technology↗

Advancing Aeronautics: A Decision Framework for Selecting Research Agendas

Publicly funded research has long played a role in the development of aeronautics, ranging from foundational research on airfoils to development of the air-traffic control system. Yet more than a century after the research and development of successful controlled, sustained, heavier-than-air flight vehicles, there are questions over the future of aeronautics research. The field of aeronautics is relatively mature, technological developments within it have become more evolutionary, and funding decisions are sometimes motivated by the continued pursuit of these evolutionary research tracks rather than by larger factors. These developments raise questions over whether public funding of aeronautics research continues to be appropriate or necessary and at what levels. Tightened federal budgets and increasing calls to address other public demands make these questions sharper still. To help it address the questions of appropriate directions for publicly funded aeronautics research, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) asked the RAND Corporation to assess the elements required to develop a strategic view of aeronautics research opportunities; identify candidate aeronautic grand challenges, paradigms, and concepts; outline a framework for evaluating them; and exercise the framework as an example of how to use it. Accordingly, this research seeks to address these questions: What aeronautics research should be supported by the U.S. government? What compelling and desirable benefits drive government-supported research? How should the government--especially NASA--make decisions about which research to support? Advancing aeronautics involves broad policy and decisionmaking challenges. Decisions involve tradeoffs among competing perspectives, uncertainties, and informed judgment.

AERONAUTICS↗

A Framework for the Cross-Sectoral Integration of Multi-Model Impact Projections: Land Use Decisions Under Climate Impacts Uncertainties

Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impactmodel setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making

farmlands↗

Autonomous Task Management and Decision Support Tools

For some time aircraft manufacturers and researchers have been pursuing mechanisms for reducing crew workload and providing better decision support to the pilots, especially during non-normal situations. Some previous attempts to develop task managers or pilot decision support tools have not resulted in robust and fully functional systems. However, the increasing sophistication of sensors and automated reasoners, and the exponential surge in the amount of digital data that is now available create a ripe environment for the development of a robust, dynamic, task manager and decision support tool that is context sensitive and integrates information from a wide array of on-board and off aircraft sourcesa tool that monitors systems and the overall flight situation, anticipates information needs, prioritizes tasks appropriately, keeps pilots well informed, and is nimble and able to adapt to changing circumstances. This presentation will discuss the many significant challenges and issues associated with the development and functionality of such a system for use on the aircraft flight deck.

decision support↗

Autonomous, Context-Sensitive, Task Management Systems and Decision Support Tools I: Human-Autonomy Teaming Fundamentals and State of the Art

Recent advances in artificial intelligence, machine learning, data mining and extraction, and especially in sensor technology have resulted in the availability of a vast amount of digital data and information and the development of advanced automated reasoners. This creates the opportunity for the development of a robust dynamic task manager and decision support tool that is context sensitive and integrates information from a wide array of on-board and off aircraft sourcesa tool that monitors systems and the overall flight situation, anticipates information needs, prioritizes tasks appropriately, keeps pilots well informed, and is nimble and able to adapt to changing circumstances. This is the first of two companion reports exploring issues associated with autonomous, context-sensitive, task management and decision support tools. In the first report, we explore fundamental issues associated with the development of an integrated, dynamic, flight information and automation management system. We discuss human factors issues pertaining to information automation and review the current state of the art of pilot information management and decision support tools. We also explore how effective human-human team behavior and expectations could be extended to teams involving humans and automation or autonomous systems.

context-sensitive↗

Market Survey 2020: Commercial Clinical Decision Support Systems and Wellness Tools

For long-duration, deep space exploration missions, current methods for managing and supporting crew health and medical conditions will be unsuitable. Communication and data transmission lags will necessitate the use of a sophisticated clinical decision support system (CDSS) that will tailor diagnosis and treatment guidance that is context-sensitive for anticipated astronaut health, wellness, and medical conditions. A variety of clinical decision support (CDS) and wellness tools (WT) are currently available in the commercial market and a broad-brush survey of this market can provide an initial impression of the current state of the art which, in turn, can inform the roadmap of NASA deep space CDSS development and associated requirements. Such a survey was undertaken during the first six months of 2020 using directed convenience sampling to obtain information provided by vendors on their websites; both commercially available CDS and WT (such as those used to track and monitor nutrition, exercise, and sleep) were included. Areas assessed were item type (e.g., software/application, device); primary purpose of the item (e.g., diagnostic support, nutrition tracking); additional purposes (if any); reported features, capabilities, and functionality; setting of use (e.g., inpatient, outpatient); intended user (e.g., clinician, patient); location and sources of data/information used or produced by the item; integration with patient electronic health record (EHR); compliance with interoperability ontologies and standards (e.g., Health Level 7 [HL7], Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine – Clinical Terminology [SNOMED-CT]); and whether the item is knowledge-based (derived from research findings) or non-knowledge-based (derived through artificial intelligence, machine learning, advanced probability and statistics), among others. Ninety-seven (97) vendor websites describing 196 CDS and 73 WT (269 total) were reviewed and coded. The primary purpose of the majority of CDS reviewed is diagnosis or diagnosis/treatment/drug decision support—targeted for clinician use— and the primary purpose of the majority of WT reviewed is the monitoring of different health metrics, most often through the use of a biosensor device (e.g., blood pressure)—targeted for patient use. Very few CDS or WT appear to comply with major international interoperability standards or can be integrated with a patient’s EHR data. None consider contextual factors, such as conditions of the physical environment (e.g., CO2 levels). The majority of CDS and WT reviewed are non-knowledge, cloud- or web-based applications or software. Forty-three (43) major findings were identified and the implications those findings have for NASA will be discussed. Example major findings include: CDS-WT capabilities range from diagnosis to treatment applications, CDS-WT may be wearable or non-wearable and are technologically advanced and only a few CDS-WT tools referenced compliance to ensure interoperability, among other findings. Recommendations will also be offered that will help to address ExMC Gap, Medical-701: Enhance medical capabilities within an exploration medical system.

market survey↗

Decision Support Tool for Risk Assessment & Maneuver Planning in Collision Avoidance

As the quantity of orbital debris continues to grow, so too does the rate of conjunction messages that suggest possible collisions between high value payloads and debris. The abundance of these conjunction messages, and eventual misses, has led to a culture of ignored alerts, and an increase in satellite operation costs as a result of the frequent need to plan resources for maneuver planning and execution. The loss of “trust” in conjunction alerts is due to the poorly characterized evolution in probability of collision (Pc) as time approaches the time of closest approach (TCA) between two objects, as well as the interpretation of Pc in the context of maneuver planning. To address these problems, and in collaboration with the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) program, the Industrial Sciences Group has developed a novel Maneuver Decision Support System (MDSS) to assist satellite operations in conjunction assessment and Maneuver planning. It provides a meaningful and intuitive Urgency metric for actionable maneuver decisions, based on the physical dynamics of conjunctions. It is based on a forecast of the evolution of Pc over time and represents an advance over current methods that are in use for satellite conjunction monitoring and planning. The result is to give satellite operators a validated decision support systems to plan for maneuver execution or mitigation or monitoring up to 3 days before TCA.

Decision Support Tool↗

Clinical Decision Support Project

As NASA plans for exploration missions into deep space, significant challenges are realized due to the distance from Earth. Beside the effects of microgravity and radiation exposure, the astronauts face the additional constraints of isolation, lack of resupply, increasingly difficult evacuation, and delayed and disrupted communication with ground-based medical care providers. These constraints require a paradigm shift from current medical care where crews rely on the real-time communications with ground-based medical care providers toward Earth-independent medical operations for astronaut medical care. Medical expertise and decision-making are ground-based for current International Space Station and planned Lunar missions. However, a deep space exploration crew will need to autonomously perform the detection, diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of medical conditions. One approach to provide Earth-independent medical operations is to augment the requisite knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSAs) of a time-constrained crew—operating under stressful conditions, combatting fatigue, and facing a potential medical crisis—with a robust clinical decision support system (CDSS). The CDSS is envisioned as an integrated, software-based tool deployed on a laptop computer or handheld device. The CDSS will assist the crew and ground support when interacting with knowledge/data bases (e.g. records, pharmacy, schedule), instrumentation (e.g. imaging, physiological monitoring devices), and habitat (e.g. wellness system, task performance system) and vehicle systems (e.g. environmental system, communication system). In addition, the human interface will employ a context-based approach that accounts for the crew’s situation. Thus, extraneous and clinically/operationally non-relevant information are reduced to avoid an increase in cognitive load. The framework of an ideal spaceflight CDSS is to include core and advanced analytical features that maintain a flexible platform for integrating new technology in the future. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of the Human Research Program (HRP) is expanding the boundaries of space medical systems to advance the care of astronauts on future exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit by actively identifying and testing next-generation medical care and crew health maintenance technologies. The Clinical Decision Support (CDS) project addressed ap Medical-701 within the Inflight Medical Conditions risk: “We need to increase inflight medical capabilities and identify new capabilities that (a) maximize benefit and/or (b) reduce “costs” on human system/mission/vehicle resources.” Though mass, volume, and power will face increasing constraints, the projected computational capabilities of spacecraft systems will increase exponentially as information technology advances in this decade and beyond. Hence, data, software, and computational resources will play an essential and synergistic role in maintaining crew health, wellness, and performance in deep space missions. The focus of the CDS project was to develop recommended requirements for an in-vehicle CDSS that acts as a ‘virtual assistant’ for delivering optimal health, performance, and medical care during exploration missions. In fiscal year 2022 (FY22), the CDS project was chartered to baseline and/or revise all CDS project related documentation and update the CDS project model to include the revised CDSS Concept of Operations, revised systems-based modeling language (SysML) activity diagrams, and baseline requirements. The focus of this presentation will be an overview of the CDS products and CDS model content.

Decision Support↗

Lower Mekong Hydrological Decision Support system

The Lower Mekong Hydrological Decision Support system (LMHDSs) is a environmental data analysis tool developed at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center with funding from the SERVIR Applied Sciences Team and technical support from SERVIR Science Coordination Office (SCO). The web application allows stakeholders and decision-makers to view and download the inputs and outputs to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model temporally and spatially. The front end is developed using JavaScript libraries like OpenLayers and Stock charts and the backend uses Django, a Python-based web framework. The web app provides several features, including visualizing map products, time-series plots, land-use/land-cover and associated soil information, and a data cart for downloading data. In addition, LMHDSs incorporates the NASAaccess software package, which provides seamless access to various climate and weather data products from NASA’s Earth observations portfolio. The application is region agnostic (any valid SWAT model can be used), modular (different components of the applications can be customized), and open (anyone can download and run it on their end). The web app is currently in use by the Mekong River Commission (MRC), a treaty-based regional intergovernmental organization that is made up of Mekong countries, as part of its hydrological decision support.

Hydrology↗

A Decision Support System for Extravehicular Operations Under Significant Communication Latency

Within the next few decades, humanity hopes to perform extravehicular activities (EVAs) on the surface of Mars; however, several technical and operational challenges must first be overcome. Foremost among these challenges is managing a significant two-way communication latency between Earth and Mars. Current and historical paradigms of EVA operations have required near-real-time communication between the crewmember(s) performing an EVA and an Earth-based mission control. Next-generation operational paradigms for supporting deep space exploration will necessitate a distributed decision authority system, including delayed Earth-based mission control, the on-planet extravehicular crewmember(s), and intermediate mission support from intravehicular crewmember(s) within real-time communication range. This latter group is of particular interest: they must provide operations support without the plentiful resources available to mission control on Earth. For this purpose, NASA is developing the Personalized EVA Informatics and Decision Support (PersEIDS) software platform. PersEIDS is designed to bolster operator situational awareness and offload operator workload by automating the tracking and projection of consumables usage over an EVA timeline, providing real-time probabilistic safety assessments of an EVA timeline given consumables constraints, and recommending alternative EVA timeline(s) when the active timeline is not expected to be completed under consumables limits. The PersEIDS concept of operations, use cases, and models will be presented. A limited version of PersEIDS was demonstrated during a three-day-long study where each day a roughly four-hour-long simulated Martian EVA was performed in virtual reality at the NASA Johnson Space Center. The first day was a control trial without PersEIDS support; the second and third days represented different levels of decision support provided by PersEIDS to the intravehicular crewmember acting as mission control. With PersEIDS support, the IV crewmember was able to manage the mission to completion faster and with more remaining consumables; however, additional testing is required to understand confounding factors, e.g. training bias.

Mars↗

NASA’s Global Precipitation Measurement Mission: Leveraging Stakeholder Engagement & Applications Activities to Inform Decision-making

The application of satellite precipitation estimates from NASA’s Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission for decision-making has been a focus for the mission since launch. As a result, GPM data have enabled a range of applications that address societal needs, including water resource management, crop forecasting, ecological monitoring, disaster response, public health, aviation, weather forecasting, and climate modeling, among others. GPM applications activities have continued to focus on user engagement through in person trainings and interviews, workshops, webinars, and educational outreach activities. The goals of these efforts are to synthesize community data needs in order to effectively support and enable decision-making across agencies, academia and the global community. While these efforts have helped the GPM mission establish a large stakeholder community that encompasses federal and state partners, academic institutions, nd private and nonprofit companies, there remains difficulties associated with accessing, processing, and applying the data to support or enable applications. In this article, we present GPM applications strategies and approaches used to enhance the applications value of GPM data, and most importantly, demonstrate how these efforts have and can inform different decision-making contexts. This work also provides a discussion on key lessons learned from the user community and how this information can be utilized to help better support and shape applications approaches for future NASA Earth Science missions.

Satellite precipitation↗

A Decision Support System for Extravehicular Operations Under Significant Communication Latency

Humanity hopes to perform extravehicular activities (EVAs) on the surface of Mars; however, several technical and operational challenges must first be overcome. Foremost among these challenges is managing a significant communication latency between Earth and Mars. Current and historical paradigms of EVA operations have required near-real-time communication between the crewmember(s) and Earth-based mission control. Nextgeneration operational paradigms for supporting deep space exploration will necessitate a distributed decision authority system, including delayed Earth-based mission control, the onplanet extravehicular crewmember(s), and intermediate mission support from intravehicular (IV) crewmember(s) within real-time communication range. This latter group is of particular interest: they must provide operations support without the plentiful resources available to mission control on Earth. Thus, NASA is developing the Personalized EVA Informatics and Decision Support (PersEIDS) software platform. PersEIDS is designed to bolster operator situational awareness and offload operator workload by automatically tracking and projecting consumables usage over an EVA timeline, providing real-time probabilistic safety assessments and recommending alternative EVA timeline(s) when the active timeline is not expected to be completed under consumables limits. The PersEIDS concept of operations, use cases, and models will be presented. A limited version of PersEIDS was demonstrated during a three-day-long study where each day a roughly four-hour-long simulated Martian EVA was performed in virtual reality at the NASA Johnson Space Center. The first day was a control trial without PersEIDS support; the second and third days represented different levels of decision support provided by PersEIDS to the IV crewmember acting as mission control. With PersEIDS support, the IV crewmember was able to manage the mission to completion faster and with more remaining consumables; however, additional testing is required to understand confounding factors, e.g., training bias.

Mars↗

PersEIDS: A Biomedical Decision Support System for Extravehicular Operations Under Significant Communication Latency

Humanity hopes to perform extravehicular activities (EVAs) on the surface of Mars; however, several technical and operational challenges must first be overcome. Foremost among these challenges is managing a significant communication latency between Earth and Mars. Current and historical paradigms of EVA operations have required near-real-time communication between the crewmember(s) and Earth-based mission control. Nextgeneration operational paradigms for supporting deep space exploration will necessitate a distributed decision authority system, including delayed Earth-based mission control, the onplanet extravehicular crewmember(s), and intermediate mission support from intravehicular (IV) crewmember(s) within real-time communication range. This latter group is of particular interest: they must provide operations support without the plentiful resources available to mission control on Earth. Thus, NASA is developing the Personalized EVA Informatics and Decision Support (PersEIDS) software platform. PersEIDS is designed to bolster operator situational awareness and offload operator workload by automatically tracking and projecting consumables usage over an EVA timeline, providing real-time probabilistic safety assessments and recommending alternative EVA timeline(s) when the active timeline is not expected to be completed under consumables limits. The PersEIDS concept of operations, use cases, and models will be presented. A limited version of PersEIDS was demonstrated during a three-day-long study where each day a roughly four-hour-long simulated Martian EVA was performed in virtual reality at the NASA Johnson Space Center. The first day was a control trial without PersEIDS support; the second and third days represented different levels of decision support provided by PersEIDS to the IV crewmember acting as mission control. With PersEIDS support, the IV crewmember was able to manage the mission to completion faster and with more remaining consumables; however, additional testing is required to understand confounding factors, e.g., training bias.

Mars↗

PySIDT: Subgraph Isomorphic Decision Trees for Molecular Property Prediction

Accurate molecular property prediction is important across all fields of chemistry. Deep neural networks (DNNs) have become increasingly popular due to their ability to train automatically, avoiding the incredibly tedious process of constructing and extending traditional property estimation schemes. However, DNNs require large amounts of training data, are challenging to interpret, require large amounts of memory to load even during inference, and have severe difficulties incorporating qualitative chemical knowledge, which are often desired for molecular property prediction tasks. Here, in this study, we present PySIDT (https://github.com/zadorlab/PySIDT), a software for training and running inference on Subgraph Isomorphic Decision Trees (SIDTs). SIDTs are graph-based decision trees made of nodes associated with molecular substructures. Inference is done by descending target molecular structures down the decision tree to nodes with matching subgraph isomorphic substructures and making predictions based on the final (most specific) nodes matched. SIDTs scale down well to dataset sizes much smaller than is feasible for DNNs. As trees of molecular substructures, SIDTs are inherently readable and easy to visualize, making them easy to analyze. They are also straightforward to extend and retrain, facilitate uncertainty estimation, and enable easy integration of expert knowledge. We demonstrate the SIDT approach discussing its application to a diverse range of molecular prediction tasks: rate coefficient estimation, diffusion coefficient estimation, thermochemistry estimation, transition state bond stretch prediction, p K a prediction, stability of molecular structures, stability of surface structures, and prediction of surface lateral interaction energetics. Additionally, we demonstrate the power of the SIDT algorithms in two direct learning curve vanilla comparisons with the popular DNN-based software Chemprop and the popular gradient boosted trees-based software XGBoost on enthalpy of formation and rate coefficient prediction tasks. In particular, in the enthalpy of formation case, vanilla PySIDT is able to outperform vanilla Chemprop and XGBoost across the full range of training/validation set sizes out to 11,560 data points.

Johnson, Matthew Sean [Sandia National Laboratorie↗

Real Space Imaging of Field-Driven Decision-Making in Nanomagnetic Galton Boards

A possible spintronic route to hardware implementation for decision-making involves injecting a domain wall into a bifurcated magnetic nanostrip resembling a Y-shaped junction. A decision is made when the domain wall chooses a particular path through the bifurcation. Recently, it was shown that a structure like a nanomagnetic Galton board, which is essentially an array of interconnected Y-shaped junctions, produces outcomes that are stochastic and therefore relevant to artificial neural networks. However, the exact mechanism leading to the robust nature of randomness is unknown. Here, in this study, we directly image the decision-making process in nanomagnetic Galton boards using Lorentz transmission electron microscopy. We identify that the stochasticity in nanomagnetic Galton boards arises as a culmination of (1) the topology of the injected domain wall, (2) dissimilarly sized vertices, and (3) the strength of the applied field. Our results pave the way to a detailed understanding of stochasticity in nanomagnetic networks.

lorentz microscopy↗

A systematic decision-making methodology to formalize the selection of degree of realism in screening analysis of probabilistic risk assessment

In the nuclear power domain, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is used to inform decision-making for Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Recently, there has been an increase in the utilization of modeling and simulation (M&S) to support the estimation of PRA inputs. Risk analysts should carefully select the PRA items that require M&S and their degree of realism (DoR) with consideration of the required resources. To support this selection, this article formulates a systematic decision-making approach for the DoR selection. The DoR selection is made based on two predictive decision-making attributes: the predicted differences in safety risk estimate (ΔSaRi) and the cost of analysis (ΔCAN). This research also develops and quantifies causal models to estimate ΔSaRi and ΔCAN. The causal model-based prediction of ΔSaRi and ΔCAN helps reduce the trial-and-error nature of the DoR selection in the PRA screening analysis and provides insights for DoR selection and the gradual refinements of PRA realism. This approach is demonstrated for a case study on fire PRA of NPPs, where an adequate DoR is selected from two fire models: an engineering correlation and a zone model.

Alkhatib, Sari [Department of Nuclear, Plasma, and↗

MSD CoP Webinar: Accounting for distributive justice in model-based decision support

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Model-based analyses play an ever-increasing role in informing policy and decision-making. However, many large-scale societal challenges unavoidably involve questions about the fair distribution of positive and negative consequences. How are the costs of the energy transition distributed over households and businesses? How are flood risks redistributed under different flood risk management plans? How are the impacts of climate change and climate mitigation distributed over different parts of the world?These kinds of questions play an important role when deliberating public policy, and the lack, in many cases, of clear answers becomes an obstacle to decision-making. At recent COPs, for example, wicked questions about loss and damages and the phase-out versus phase-down of coal became obstacles to global climate action, illustrating the misalignment of the direction of scientific research and decision-makers' information needs. In this talk, I'll explore advances that are being made that enable analysts to start providing grounded model-based answers to questions of distributive justice, as well as argue that analysts should embrace and explicate the normative nature of their work instead of hiding behind the purported neutrality of science. Presenters: Dr. Jan Kwakkel (Delft University of Technology) Moderator(s): Rebecca Saari (MSD CoP Working Group Co-Chair; Univ. of Waterloo), Matt Sparks (Univ. of Waterloo); Sarah Fletcher (MSD CoP Working Group Co-Chair; Stanford University), Juan Moreno-Cruz (Univ. of Waterloo), Patrick Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: November 13, 2024 from 1 PM - 2:15 PM ET

Kwakkel, Jan H.↗