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At least 199 records · Page 11

Optical Variability of ICRF3 Quasars in the Pan-STARRS 3Pi Survey with Functional Principal Component Analysis

We make use of individual (epoch) detection data from the Pan-STARRS “3π” survey for 2863 optical ICRF3 counterparts in the five wavelength bands g, r, i, z, and y, published as part of the Data Release 2. A dedicated method based on the Functional Principal Component Analysis is developed for these sparse and irregularly sampled data. With certain regularization and normalization constraints, it allows us to obtain uniform and compatible estimates of the variability amplitudes and average magnitudes between the passbands and objects. We find that the starting assumption of affinity of the light curves for a given object at different wavelengths is violated for several percent of the sample. The distributions of rms variability amplitudes are strongly skewed toward small values, peaking at ∼0.1 mag with tails stretching to 2 mag. Statistically, the lowest variability is found for the r band and the largest for the reddest y band. A small “brighter-redder” effect is present, with amplitudes in y greater than amplitudes in g in 57% of the sample. The variability versus redshift dependence shows a strong decline with z toward redshift 3, which we interpret as the time dilation of the dominant time frequencies. The colors of radio-loud ICRF3 quasars are correlated with redshift in a complicated, wavy pattern governed by the emergence of brightest emission lines within the five passbands.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

On Neural Architectures for Astronomical Time-series Classification with Application to Variable Stars

Despite the utility of neural networks (NNs) for astronomical time-series classification, the proliferation of learning architectures applied to diverse data sets has thus far hampered a direct intercomparison of different approaches. Here we perform the first comprehensive study of variants of NN-based learning and inference for astronomical time series, aiming to provide the community with an overview on relative performance and, hopefully, a set of best-in-class choices for practical implementations. In both supervised and self-supervised contexts, we study the effects of different time-series-compatible layer choices, namely the dilated temporal convolutional neural network (dTCNs), long-short term memory NNs, gated recurrent units and temporal convolutional NNs (tCNNs). Additionally, we also study the efficacy and performance of encoder-decoder (i.e., autoencoder) networks compared to direct classification networks, different pathways to include auxiliary (non-time-series) metadata, and different approaches to incorporate multi-passband data (i.e., multiple time series per source). Performance—applied to a sample of 17,604 variable stars (VSs) from the MAssive Compact Halo Objects (MACHO) survey across 10 imbalanced classes—is measured in training convergence time, classification accuracy, reconstruction error, and generated latent variables. We find that networks with recurrent NNs generally outperform dTCNs and, in many scenarios, yield to similar accuracy as tCNNs. In learning time and memory requirements, convolution-based layers perform better. We conclude by discussing the advantages and limitations of deep architectures for VS classification, with a particular eye toward next-generation surveys such as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time, the Roman Space Telescope, and Zwicky Transient Facility.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Development of a Machine-Learned Cruise Guide Indicator for Rotorcraft

This paper presents a machine-learned virtual cruise guide indicator (vCGI) for Chinook helicopters. Two temporal neural networks were trained and evaluated on measured data from 55 flight tests, one for the fore rotor and another for the aft rotor, to predict a vCGI value, which protects 23 components from fatigue damage during steady-state conditions. Three different classes of machine learning architectures were evaluated for prediction of the vCGI from time sequences: a temporal convolutional neural network with 1D dilated causal convolutions, a long short-term memory recurrent neural network, and an attention-based transformer architecture. The final average model accuracy on unseen flight data is currently greater than 93% for CGI values which could result in fatigue damage and 90% for normal operation CGI values. Model accuracy was improved through a series of advancements in:(1) selection of optimal training data using temporal collective variables and unsupervised learning, (2) dataset augmentation with maximum-entropy temporal collective variables, and (3) implementation of a mixture-of-experts classification- regression approach using an adversarial classification approach to assign maneuver labels. The results are presented for each advancement in model development along with lessons learned in training machine learning models on real- world, time-dependent rotorcraft data.

Boyer, Mathew↗

Geomechanical in situ testing of fault reactivation in argillite repositories

Abstract. Pressurization of natural faults as a result of repository-induced effects can lead to their reactivation and permeability generation in case such features are present near disposal tunnels. Potential driving forces for such pressurization are the temperature increase caused by heat-producing high-level radioactive waste and the generation of hydrogen and other gases due to corrosion of engineered materials. We are primarily concerned about pressurization and fault activation in host rocks and faults that have very low natural permeability for pore pressure increases to dissipate, such as the argillite rocks currently investigated in Switzerland, France and other countries. This presentation discusses a series of in situ experiments of fault activation by fluid injection conducted in the argillite rock (Opalinus clay) at the Mont Terri underground research laboratory in Switzerland. A multi-model monitoring test bed was installed at Mont Terri that includes distributed fiber optics for strain, temperature, and acoustics; local fault pore pressure and three-dimensional displacement sensors; active seismic imaging; and passive seismic monitoring. The fault experiments (and their subsequent analysis via hydromechanical modeling) provide a new fundamental understanding of the coupling between pore pressure, fault deformation and permeability generation as a function of time and allow exploring how seismic and aseismic events may impact the integrity of faulted argillite host rock. Our experimental observations demonstrate that significant flow (and transport) can occur along the initially impermeable argillite fault when rupture is activated. However, the fault permeability decreases to almost its pre-activation value when fluid injection ceases and fluid pressure drops. Dilatant slip on the fault plane alone does not explain the observed increase in fault permeability; pressure-induced fault opening also plays a role, favored by the softness of the shale along with the fact that the structure of the fault zone prevents fluids from diffusing into the adjacent damage zone. Rupture initiation and permeability generation is initially aseismic, associated only with an increase in noise level and emerging tremors. Micro-earthquakes are initiated later in the experiments and typically occur away from the fluid-pressurized area. Hydromechanical models show that stress transferred from the initial aseismic deformation can build up to stress criticality and later induce seismic rupture. After presenting the experimental results, we will close the presentation with an outlook to future experimental campaigns using the fault test bed at Mont Terri. We are currently planning a controlled thermal stimulation of the fault, where instead of fluid injection as a trigger mechanism we will heat up the nearby rock volume and measure potential effects on fault stability. Lessons learned from our past and future experiments will help inform the safety assessment of geologic disposal in argillite host rock.

Birkholzer, Jens T.↗

A mechanistic model and therapeutic interventions for COVID-19 involving a RAS-mediated bradykinin storm

Neither the disease mechanism nor treatments for COVID-19 are currently known. Here, we present a novel molecular mechanism for COVID-19 that provides therapeutic intervention points that can be addressed with existing FDA-approved pharmaceuticals. The entry point for the virus is ACE2, which is a component of the counteracting hypotensive axis of RAS. Bradykinin is a potent part of the vasopressor system that induces hypotension and vasodilation and is degraded by ACE and enhanced by the angiotensin 1-9 produced by ACE2. Here, we perform a new analysis on gene expression data from cells in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) from COVID-19 patients that were used to sequence the virus. Comparison with BALF from controls identifies a critical imbalance in RAS represented by decreased expression of ACE in combination with increases in ACE2, renin, angiotensin, key RAS receptors, kinogen and many kallikrein enzymes that activate it, and both bradykinin receptors. This very atypical pattern of the RAS is predicted to elevate bradykinin levels in multiple tissues and systems that will likely cause increases in vascular dilation, vascular permeability and hypotension. These bradykinin-driven outcomes explain many of the symptoms being observed in COVID-19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Temperature Uncertainty Modeling with Proxy Structural Data as Geostatistical Constraints for Well Siting: An Example Applied to Granite Springs Valley, NV, USA

Utilizing existing temperature and structural information around Granite Springs Valley, Nevada, we build 3D stochastic temperature models with the aim of evaluating the 3D uncertainty of temperature and choosing between candidate exploration well locations . The data used to support the modeling are measured temperatures and structural proxies from 3D geologic modeling, the latter considered "secondary" data. Two stochastic geostatistical techniques are explored for incorporating the structural proxies: cosimulation and local varying mean. With both the cosimulation and local varying mean methods, many equally likely temperature models (i.e., realizations) are produced, from which temperature probability profiles are calculated at candidate well locations. To aid in choosing between the candidate locations, two quantities summarize the temperature probabilities: Vprior and entropy. Vprior quantifies the likelihood for economic temperatures at each candidate location, whereas entropy identifies where new information has the most potential to reduce uncertainty. In general, the cosimulation realizations have smoother spatial structure, and extrapolate high temperatures at candidate locations that are located along the direction of the longest spatial correlation, which are down dip from existing temperature logs. The smooth realizations result in tight temperature probability profiles that are easier to interpret, but they have unrealistic temperature reversals in some locations because the cosimulation technique does not enforce a conductive geothermal gradient as a baseline (i.e., linearly increasing temperature with depth). The local varying mean results produce realizations with more realistic geothermal gradients, with temperatures increasing downward since a depth-temperature relationship is included. However, because they have much noisier spatial nature compared to cosimulation, it is harder to interpret the temperature probability profiles. The different local varying mean results allow the geologist to determine which proxy (e.g., dilation versus distance to fault termination) should be used given the specific geothermal system. In general, Vprior from local varying mean results identify locations that are close to high values for the structural proxies: areas with highe r probabilities for higher temperatures. The entropy results identify where uncertainty is greatest and therefore new drilling information could be most useful. Though these techniques provide useful information, even when applied to areas of sparse data, our comp arison of these two techniques demonstrates the need for new geothermal geostatistics techniques that combine the advantages of these two methods and that are tailored to the spatial uncertainty issues inherent in geothermal exploration.

3D temperature modeling↗

A VOI Web Application for Distinct Geothermal Domains: Statistical Evaluation of Different Data Types within the Great Basin

The Great Basin region contains different domains that have different structural and hydrothermal flow patterns. Depending on the characteristics of these patterns, certain data types may be more successful at detecting hidden geothermal resources. In this paper, we quantitatively evaluate if certain data types are more successful in certain domains. Given different aquifer, strain and structural conditions, we explore which data types statistically reveal positively labeled geothermal sites. We utilize value of information (VOI) metrics to help quantify the reliability of data types to discriminate against "positive" and "negative" labeled geothermal sites. We also evaluate how kernel density estimation can help generalize the statistics that inform VOI, which is necessary given the limited data in geothermal exploration. Except for the Carbonate Aquifer, the highest ranking of the Vimperfect is the Local Structural Setting. Next, the slip and dilation tendency is first for Carbonate Aquifer and second for Central Nevada Seismic Belt and Western Great Basin. For the Carbonate Aquifer, heat flow is has the lowest Vimperfect value compared to the other three domains, which is consistent with the understanding of how heat flow measurements are masked by regional groundwater flow.

Bayesian analysis↗

Real-Time Detection of Charge Jumps in Superconducting Qubits with a Convolutional Neural Network

Ionizing radiation from cosmic rays and gammas can induce discontinuous jumps in the environmental charge of superconducting qubits (charge jumps), causing correlated errors that challenge fault-tolerant quantum computing while simultaneously providing a detection signature for quantum sensing applications. Current detection methods operate offline, introducing latency incompatible with in-the-loop qubit control. In this paper, an online detector of charge jumps for superconducting qubits, based on a dilated causal convolutional neural network (DCCNN) designed for in-the-loop deployment on the Quantum Instrumentation Control Kit (QICK) platform, is presented. The network is trained on synthetic Ramsey tomography scans generated from qubit templates measured at the Northwestern Experimental Underground Site (NEXUS) at Fermilab, and translated to FPGA firmware via hls4ml with ap_fixed$\langle 16,6 \rangle$ quantization, reaching a per-inference latency of $6.19 μ$s on the Zynq UltraScale+ RFSoC ZCU216. At this operating point the DCCNN matches the detection efficiency of the established offline $χ^2$ algorithm ($0.843 \pm 0.022$ vs. $0.866 \pm 0.020$ on $|Δq| \in [0.1, 0.5] e$ at matched false-positive rate), while requiring no per-qubit hyperparameter tuning. This shifts charge-jump detection from a post-hoc diagnostic to a control-loop primitive, enabling adaptive protocols that respond to radiation-induced events in situ, with applications to quantum-computing error mitigation and to the use of superconducting qubits as particle detectors.

Gaytan-Villarreal, Daniel [Carnegie Mellon U.]↗

Probing the matter-dominated expansion with multi-redshift Lyman-$α$ BAO from DESI DR2

We present a multi-redshift Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) analysis of the DESI Data Release 2 (DR2) Lyman-$α$ (Ly$α$) forest, splitting the forest auto-correlation and its cross-correlation with quasars into three redshift bins. We obtain BAO measurements at effective redshifts $z_{\rm eff} = 2.13$, $2.40$, and $2.81$ with $\sim2.0$--$2.5\%$ precision per bin in the radial and transverse directions, corresponding to $\sim1.1$--$1.2\%$ precision for the isotropic BAO measurement. Using the same data products and modeling framework as the DESI DR2 Ly$α$ BAO analysis, we validate the pipeline on $400$ synthetic datasets and find unbiased BAO recovery with well-calibrated uncertainties. The measurements show an increase in the isotropic dilation parameter $D_V/r_d$ from $30.26\pm0.39$ to $32.22\pm0.47$ and in the Alcock-Paczyński parameter $D_M/D_H$ from $3.96\pm0.15$ to $5.63^{+0.22}_{-0.24}$. The Hubble distance $D_H/r_d$ decreases from $9.40\pm0.20$ to $7.22\pm0.17$, providing a direct measurement of the expansion history consistent with $Λ$CDM and the expected matter-dominated scaling, with $H(z)\propto(1+z)^n$ giving $n=1.34\pm0.16$. The redshift split also provides a self-consistent measurement of clustering evolution: the Ly$α$ forest bias evolves as $(1+z)^γ$ with $γ_α=3.05\pm0.16$, the RSD parameter has a redshift evolution described by $γ_β=-0.97\pm0.26$, and the quasar bias evolves with $γ_Q=1.56\pm0.23$, consistent with independent quasar clustering measurements. Combining these three-bin BAO measurements with DESI DR2 galaxy and quasar BAO measurements yields cosmological constraints consistent with the single-bin Ly$α$ BAO analysis in flat $Λ$CDM and $w_0w_a$CDM and improves curvature constraints by $\sim12\%$ in $Λ$CDM$+Ω_\mathrm{K}$.

Herrera-Alcantar, Hiram K. [Paris, Inst. Astrophys↗

Gas scintillation mitigation in gas Cherenkov detectors for inertial confinement fusion (invited)

Gas Cherenkov detectors provide a time resolved measurement of the fusion burn in inertial confinement fusion experiments. The fusion rate delivers critical benchmark figures, such as burn width and bang time. Recent detector improvements pushed temporal resolution to 10 ps to make burn width measurements on igniting targets possible. First high temporal resolution measurements using CO 2 gas fills had a background signal with a long decay length (tail), which was caused by gas scintillation. This gas scintillation limits the ability of the detector to resolve short burn width and high frequency features in the fusion rate measurements. A thorough investigation of the cause of the tail and mitigation options for gas scintillation is presented here. As a near-term resolution, neon gas is being used to extract fusion burn histories. Paths forward for the next generation of gas Cherenkov detectors are identified including the usage of oxygen as a Cherenkov medium.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Localization of deformation in fluid-saturated sandstone

Herein we discuss a laboratory study of inelastic deformation and localization was conducted to evaluate microseismicity and fracture in fluid-saturated rock. Plane strain compression experiments were performed on oil- and water-saturated Berea sandstone under dry, drained, undrained, and quasi-unjacketed conditions. Parameters associated with the elastic and inelastic material response were accurately measured and used in a constitutive model to predict localization of deformation under the drained and undrained conditions. Acoustic emission (AE) activity was recorded and the onset of inelastic response in fluid-saturated rock, similar to dry rock, coincided with an increase in AE rate. Fracture initiation and propagation were successfully monitored by AE locations. Clustering of AE events and the start of inhomogeneous deformation inferred from displacement measurements are shown to be well correlated with the model prediction of the onset of localized deformation under various rock-fluid interaction conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Achieving superior mechanical properties: Tailoring multicomponent microstructure in AISI 9254 spring steel through a two-stage Q&P process and nanoscale carbide integration

In the pursuit of lightweight, durable steel, we have successfully developed a multicomponent structure in AISI 9254 spring steel using a two-stage quenching and partitioning (Q&P) process. The primary objective of this process was to engineer an optimized microstructure consisting of nanobainite, martensite, and nano-carbides. Utilizing the insights gained from the results of advanced techniques such as X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and atom probe tomography (APT) performed on the as-received AISI 9254 spring steel, we refined the quenching and partitioning (Q&P) path, leading to the successful establishment of a bainitic transformation for superior mechanical properties. Our tensile tests revealed a high yield strength (≈ 1600 ± 25 MPa) and ultimate tensile strength (≈ 1850 ± 50 MPa), along with considerable elongation (≈ 11.15 ± 0.25%). We also identified that pre-formed martensite lath defects and high silicon content play crucial roles during the Q&P process, preventing carbide coalescence and increasing strain-hardening capacity. Finally, this study demonstrates the potential of a Q&P process to generate high-strength, ductile steel for automotive and aerospace applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Measurements of fusion reaction history in inertially confined burning plasmas

Direct evidence of inertially confined fusion ignition appears in the abrupt temperature increase and consequent rapid increase in the thermonuclear burn rate as seen in the reaction history. The Gamma Reaction History (GRH) and Gas Cherenkov Detector (GCD) diagnostics are γ-based Cherenkov detectors that provide high quality measurements of deuterium–tritium fusion γ ray production and are, thus, capable of monitoring the thermonuclear burn rate. Temporal shifts in both peak burn time and burn width have been observed during recent high-yield shots (yields greater than 1017 neutrons) and are essential diagnostic signatures of the ignition process. While the current GRH and GCD detectors are fast enough to sense the changes of reaction history due to alpha heating, they do not have enough dynamic range to capture the onset of alpha heating. The next generation of instrumentation, GRH-15m, is proposed to increase the yield-rate coverage to measure the onset of alpha-heating.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Introduction to the special topic on inertial confinement fusion diagnostics

In the first decade of the 21st century, the United States began operating three leading Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) and High-Energy Density Physics (HEDP) facilities. The National Ignition Facility (NIF) began its quest to first surpass the Lawson Criterion and then reach thermonuclear ignition and thermonuclear gain. The Omega EP (Extended Performance) laser provides unprecedented energy, reliability, and consistency for petawatt (PW)-class laser experiments. The Omega laser continues to support over 1000 ICF and HEDP experiments each year. The Z pulsed power machine is a Z-pinch plasma confinement device that was refurbished to increase current drive and improve reliability. The extreme states of matter created in these new facilities required advancement of many technologies. The most important among these was the significant improvement in instrumentation capabilities needed to diagnose plasma conditions and resulting nuclear products. The instruments needed a better temporal, spatial, and energy resolution. They also needed to be hardened against EMP and radiation. Typical events in an ICF implosion include compressing the deuterium–tritium (DT) fuel to greater than 60 g/cm 3 and heating the DT to a temperature greater than 10 keV (110 000 000 K). The DT atoms react to produce 14 MeV neutrons from a volume with a radius of ~30 μm. When the fuel ignites, the DT burn prop agates into cold fuel and the neutron-emitting region can reach sizes of over 200 μm. Furthermore, the burn typically lasts less than 150 ps, but the burn duration will decrease as the DT yield increases. Burn durations as short as 90 ps have been recorded and are predicted to decrease still further to 20 ps. X-ray imaging diagnostics are needed to measure the acceleration and velocity of the capsule enclosing the DT, where the implosion velocities can reach over 400 km/s.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A novel high frequency, high bandwidth, three phase Mach–Zehnder optical data link

In inertial confinement fusion, hydrogen isotopes are fused together under high pressures and temperatures. Typically, the duration of these experiments is incredibly short, on the order of around 60–150 ps. Due to the high radiation environment, a detector’s signal is typically data linked far distances to a protected location. The diagnostic challenge for fusion reaction history measurements is to measure signals of interest maximizing dynamic range while also maintaining time resolution on the order of 10 ps. In this work, we present a new experimental optical data link used to efficiently transport diagnostic signals over great distances to the recording system while not restricting the dynamic range. The concept of a three phase Mach–Zehnder modulator system is introduced as well as a description of the physical prototype. The initial results from testing at the OMEGA facility show that this system is a viable method for signal transportation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗