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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Duration of Contagion of Foot-And-Mouth Disease Virus in Infected Live Pigs and Carcasses

Data-driven modeling of incursions of high-consequence, transboundary pathogens of animals is a critical component of veterinary preparedness. However, simplifying assumptions and excessive use of proxy measures to compensate for gaps in available data may compromise modeled outcomes. The current investigation was prospectively designed to address two major gaps in current knowledge of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) pathogenesis in pigs: the end (duration) of the infectious period and the viability of FMDV in decaying carcasses. By serial exposure of sentinel groups of pigs to the same group of donor pigs infected by FMDV A24 Cruzeiro, it was demonstrated that infected pigs transmitted disease at 10 days post infection (dpi), but not at 15 dpi. Assuming a latent period of 1 day, this would result in a conservative estimate of an infectious duration of 9 days, which is considerably longer than suggested by a previous report from an experiment performed in cattle. Airborne contagion was diminished within two days of removal of infected pigs from isolation rooms. FMDV in muscle was inactivated within 7 days in carcasses stored at 4°C. By contrast, FMDV infectivity in vesicle epithelium harvested from intact carcasses stored under similar conditions remained remarkably high until the study termination at 11 weeks post mortem. The output from this study consists of experimentally determined data on contagion associated with FMDV-infected pigs. This information may be utilized to update parameterization of models used for foot-and-mouth disease outbreak simulations involving areas of substantial pig production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

FOXM1-activated SIRT4 inhibits NF-κB signaling and NLRP3 inflammasome to alleviate kidney injury and podocyte pyroptosis in diabetic nephropathy

Highlights: • FOXM1 is downregulated in kidney tissues of patients with DN. • Overexpression of FOXM1 alleviates kidney injury in DN modeled mice. • Overexpression of FOXM1 reduces pyroptosis of HG-treated podocytes. • FOXM1 activates SIRT4 to inhibit the NFκB pathway and the NLRP3 inflammasome. • Downregulation of SIRT4 blocks the protective roles of FOXM1 in podocytes and mice. Forkhead box M1 (FOXM1) has been reported to play a protective role against acute kidney injury by driving tubular regeneration. This study aims to probe the function of FOXM1 in diabetic nephropathy (DN) and the molecules involved. FOXM1 was poorly expressed in DN-diseased kidney tissues. A murine model of DN was established, and podocytes cells (MPC5) were treated with high-glucose (HG) for in vitro studies. FOXM1 overexpression improved kidney function and reduced pathological changes in mice, and it increased the expression of the podocyte marker Nephrin in kidney tissues. In vitro, FOXM1 increased viability and reduced pyroptosis of the HG-treated MPC5 cells, and it elevated the expression of the podocyte marker Nephrin whereas reduced the expression of pyroptosis-related NLRP3 inflammasome and cleaved caspase 1. FOXM1 bound to the promoter of sirtuin 4 (SIRT4) to induce transcriptional activation. Downregulation of SIRT4 blocked the protective roles of FOXM1 both in vivo and in vitro. Phosphorylation of nuclear factor-kappa B (NF-κB) in HG-treated cells was suppressed by FOXM1 but restored after SIRT4 inhibition. In conclusion, this study suggested that FOXM1 transcriptionally activates SIRT4 and inhibits NF-κB signaling and the NLRP3 inflammasome to alleviate kidney injury and podocyte pyroptosis in DN.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Albumin in patients with liver disease shows an altered conformation

Abstract Human serum albumin (HSA) constitutes the primary transporter of fatty acids, bilirubin, and other plasma compounds. The binding, transport, and release of its cargos strongly depend on albumin conformation, which is affected by bound ligands induced by physiological and pathological conditions. HSA is both highly oxidized and heavily loaded with fatty acids and bilirubin in chronic liver disease. By employing small-angle X-ray scattering we show that HSA from the plasma of chronic liver disease patients undergoes a distinct opening compared to healthy donors. The extent of HSA opening correlates with clinically relevant variables, such as the model of end-stage liver disease score, bilirubin, and fatty acid levels. Although the mild oxidation of HSA in vitro does not alter overall structure, the alteration of patients’ HSA correlates with its redox state. This study connects clinical data with structural visualization of albumin dynamicity in solution and underlines the functional importance of albumin’s inherent flexibility.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A porcine ligated loop model reveals new insight into the host immune response against Campylobacter jejuni

The symptoms of infectious diarrheal disease are mediated by a combination of a pathogen’s virulence factors and the host immune system. Campylobacter jejuni is the leading bacterial cause of diarrhea worldwide due to its near-ubiquitous zoonotic association with poultry. One of the outstanding questions is to what extent the bacteria are responsible for the diarrheal symptoms via intestinal cell necrosis versus immune cell initiated tissue damage. To determine the stepwise process of inflammation that leads to diarrhea, we used a piglet ligated intestinal loop model to study the intestinal response to C. jejuni. Pigs were chosen due to the anatomical similarity between the porcine and the human intestine. We found that the abundance of neutrophil related proteins increased in the intestinal lumen during C. jejuni infection, including proteins related to neutrophil migration (neutrophil elastase and MMP9), actin reorganization (Arp2/3), and antimicrobial proteins (lipocalin-2, myeloperoxidase, S100A8, and S100A9). The appearance of neutrophil proteins also corresponded with increases of the inflammatory cytokines IL-8 and TNF-a. Compared to infection with the C. jejuni wild-type strain, infection with the noninvasive C. jejuni ?ciaD mutant resulted in a blunted inflammatory response, with less inflammatory cytokines and neutrophil markers. These findings indicate that intestinal inflammation is driven by C. jejuni virulence and that neutrophils are the predominant cell type responding to C. jejuni infection. We propose that this model can be used as a platform to study the early immune events during infection with intestinal pathogens.

disease model, INNATE IMMUNITY, proteomics, intest↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling immunity in microphysiological systems

There is a need for better predictive models of the human immune system to evaluate safety and efficacy of immunomodulatory drugs and biologics for successful product development and regulatory approvals. Current in vitro models, which are often tested in two-dimensional (2D) tissue culture polystyrene, and preclinical animal models fail to fully recapitulate the function and physiology of the human immune system. Microphysiological systems (MPSs) that can model key microenvironment cues of the human immune system, as well as of specific organs and tissues, may be able to recapitulate specific features of the in vivo inflammatory response. This minireview provides an overview of MPS for modeling lymphatic tissues, immunity at tissue interfaces, inflammatory diseases, and the inflammatory tumor microenvironment in vitro and ex vivo. Broadly, these systems have utility in modeling how certain immunotherapies function in vivo, how dysfunctional immune responses can propagate diseases, and how our immune system can combat pathogens.

Research & Experimental Medicine↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Down Syndrome Myeloid Leukemia by Sequential Introduction of GATA1 and STAG2 Mutations in Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells with Trisomy 21

Children with Down syndrome (DS) have a high risk for acute myeloid leukemia (DS-ML). Genomic characterization of DS-ML blasts showed the presence of unique mutations in GATA1, an essential hematopoietic transcription factor, leading to the production of a truncated from of GATA1 (GATA1s). GATA1s, together with trisomy 21, is sufficient to develop a pre-leukemic condition called transient abnormal myelopoiesis (TAM). Approximately 30% of these cases progress into DS-ML by acquisition of additional somatic mutations in a stepwise manner. We previously developed a model for TAM by introducing disease-specific GATA1 mutation in trisomy 21-induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs), leading to the production of N-terminally truncated short form of GATA1 (GATA1s). In this model, we used CRISPR/Cas9 to introduce a co-operating mutation in STAG2, a member of the cohesin complex recurrently mutated in DS-ML but not in TAM. Hematopoietic differentiation of GATA1 STAG2 double-mutant iPSC lines confirmed GATA1s expression and the loss of functional STAG2 protein, leading to enhanced production of immature megakaryocytic population compared to GATA1 mutant alone. Megakaryocyte-specific lineage expansion of the double-mutant HSPCs exhibited close resemblance to the DS-ML immunophenotype. Transcriptome analysis showed that GATA1 mutation resulted in downregulation of megakaryocytic and erythrocytic differentiation pathways and interferon α/β signaling, along with an upregulation of pathways promoting myeloid differentiation such as toll-like receptor cascade. The co-occurrence of STAG2 knockout partially reverted the expression of genes involved in myeloid differentiation, likely leading to enhanced self-renewal and promoting leukemogenesis. In conclusion, we developed a DS-ML model via hematopoietic differentiation of gene-targeted iPSCs bearing trisomy 21.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling epidemic spread with spike-based models

The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered/Removed model is a standard model for epidemiological spread of disease through vulnerable populations. In this paper we show how SIR network dynamics can be implemented using spiking neurons.

Hamilton, Kathleen↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating coccidioidomycosis endemicity while accounting for imperfect detection using spatio - temporal occupancy modeling

Coccidioidomycosis, or Valley fever, is an infectious disease caused by inhaling Coccidioides fungal spores. Incidence has risen in recent years, and it is believed the endemic region for Coccidioides is expanding in response to climate change. While Valley fever case data can help us understand trends in disease risk, using case data as a proxy for Coccidioides endemicity is not ideal because case data suffers from imperfect detection, including false positives (e.g., travel-related cases reported outside of endemic area) and false negatives (e.g., misdiagnosis or underreporting). Here we proposed a Bayesian, spatio-temporal occupancy model to relate monthly, county-level presence/absence data on Valley fever cases to latent endemicity of Coccidioides, accounting for imperfect detection. We used our model to estimate endemicity in the western United States. We estimated high probability of endemicity in southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico, but also in regions without mandated reporting, including western Texas, eastern Colorado, and southeastern Washington. We also quantified spatio-temporal variability in detectability of Valley fever, given an area is endemic to Coccidioides. We estimated an inverse relationship between lagged 3- and 9-month precipitation and case detection, and a positive association with agriculture. This work can help inform public health surveillance needs and identify areas that would benefit from mandatory case reporting.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Self‐gated, dynamic contrast‐enhanced magnetic resonance imaging with compressed‐sensing reconstruction for evaluating endothelial permeability in the aortic root of atherosclerotic mice

High‐risk atherosclerotic plaques are characterized by active inflammation and abundant leaky microvessels. We present a self‐gated, dynamic contrast‐enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE‐MRI) acquisition with compressed sensing reconstruction and apply it to assess longitudinal changes in endothelial permeability in the aortic root of Apoe −/− atherosclerotic mice during natural disease progression. Twenty‐four, 8‐week‐old, female Apoe −/− mice were divided into four groups (n = 6 each) and imaged with self‐gated DCE‐MRI at 4, 8, 12, and 16 weeks after high‐fat diet initiation, and then euthanized for CD68 immunohistochemistry for macrophages. Eight additional mice were kept on a high‐fat diet and imaged longitudinally at the same time points. Aortic‐root pseudo‐concentration curves were analyzed using a validated piecewise linear model. Contrast agent wash‐in and washout slopes ( b 1 and b 2 ) were measured as surrogates of aortic root endothelial permeability and compared with macrophage density by immunohistochemistry. b 2 , indicating contrast agent washout, was significantly higher in mice kept on an high‐fat diet for longer periods of time ( p = 0.03). Group comparison revealed significant differences between mice on a high‐fat diet for 4 versus 16 weeks ( p = 0.03). Macrophage density also significantly increased with diet duration ( p = 0.009). Spearman correlation between b 2 from DCE‐MRI and macrophage density indicated a weak relationship between the two parameters (r = 0.28, p = 0.20). Validated piecewise linear modeling of the DCE‐MRI data showed that the aortic root contrast agent washout rate is significantly different during disease progression. Further development of this technique from a single‐slice to a 3D acquisition may enable better investigation of the relationship between in vivo imaging of endothelial permeability and atherosclerotic plaques' genetic, molecular, and cellular makeup in this important model of disease.

Calcagno, Claudia↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning prediction of incidence of Alzheimer’s disease using large-scale administrative health data

Nationwide population-based cohort provides a new opportunity to build an automated risk prediction model based on individuals’ history of health and healthcare beyond existing risk prediction models. We tested the possibility of machine learning models to predict future incidence of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) using large-scale administrative health data. From the Korean National Health Insurance Service database between 2002 and 2010, we obtained de-identified health data in elders above 65 years (N = 40,736) containing 4,894 unique clinical features including ICD-10 codes, medication codes, laboratory values, history of personal and family illness and socio-demographics. To define incident AD we considered two operational definitions: “definite AD” with diagnostic codes and dementia medication (n = 614) and “probable AD” with only diagnosis (n = 2026). We trained and validated random forest, support vector machine and logistic regression to predict incident AD in 1, 2, 3, and 4 subsequent years. For predicting future incidence of AD in balanced samples (bootstrapping), the machine learning models showed reasonable performance in 1-year prediction with AUC of 0.775 and 0.759, based on “definite AD” and “probable AD” outcomes, respectively; in 2-year, 0.730 and 0.693; in 3-year, 0.677 and 0.644; in 4-year, 0.725 and 0.683. The results were similar when the entire (unbalanced) samples were used. Important clinical features selected in logistic regression included hemoglobin level, age and urine protein level. This study may shed a light on the utility of the data-driven machine learning model based on large-scale administrative health data in AD risk prediction, which may enable better selection of individuals at risk for AD in clinical trials or early detection in clinical settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A deep redox proteome profiling workflow and its application to skeletal muscle of a Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy model

Perturbation to the redox state accompanies many diseases and its effects are viewed through oxidation of biomolecules, including proteins, lipids, and nucleic acids. The thiol groups of protein cysteine residues undergo an array of redox post-translational modifications (PTMs) that are important for regulation of protein and pathway function. To better understand what proteins are redox regulated following a perturbation, it is important to be able to comprehensively profile protein thiol oxidation at the proteome level. Herein, we report a deep redox proteome profiling workflow and demonstrate its application in measuring the changes in thiol oxidation along with global protein expression in skeletal muscle from mdx mice, a model of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD). In depth coverage of the thiol proteome was achieved with >18,000 Cys sites from 5608 proteins in muscle being quantified. Compared to the control group, mdx mice exhibit markedly increased thiol oxidation, where ~2% shift in the median oxidation occupancy was observed. Further, pathway analysis for the redox data revealed that coagulation system and immune-related pathways were among the most susceptible to increased thiol oxidation in mdx mice, whereas protein abundance changes were more enriched in pathways associated with bioenergetics. This study illustrates the importance of deep redox profiling in gaining greater insight into oxidative stress regulation and pathways/processes that are perturbed in an oxidizing environment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Biolink Model: A universal schema for knowledge graphs in clinical, biomedical, and translational science

Abstract Within clinical, biomedical, and translational science, an increasing number of projects are adopting graphs for knowledge representation. Graph‐based data models elucidate the interconnectedness among core biomedical concepts, enable data structures to be easily updated, and support intuitive queries, visualizations, and inference algorithms. However, knowledge discovery across these “knowledge graphs” (KGs) has remained difficult. Data set heterogeneity and complexity; the proliferation of ad hoc data formats; poor compliance with guidelines on findability, accessibility, interoperability, and reusability; and, in particular, the lack of a universally accepted, open‐access model for standardization across biomedical KGs has left the task of reconciling data sources to downstream consumers. Biolink Model is an open‐source data model that can be used to formalize the relationships between data structures in translational science. It incorporates object‐oriented classification and graph‐oriented features. The core of the model is a set of hierarchical, interconnected classes (or categories) and relationships between them (or predicates) representing biomedical entities such as gene, disease, chemical, anatomic structure, and phenotype. The model provides class and edge attributes and associations that guide how entities should relate to one another. Here, we highlight the need for a standardized data model for KGs, describe Biolink Model, and compare it with other models. We demonstrate the utility of Biolink Model in various initiatives, including the Biomedical Data Translator Consortium and the Monarch Initiative, and show how it has supported easier integration and interoperability of biomedical KGs, bringing together knowledge from multiple sources and helping to realize the goals of translational science.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detection of significant antiviral drug effects on COVID-19 with reasonable sample sizes in randomized controlled trials: A modeling study

Development of an effective antiviral drug for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global health priority. Although several candidate drugs have been identified through in vitro and in vivo models, consistent and compelling evidence from clinical studies is limited. The lack of evidence from clinical trials may stem in part from the imperfect design of the trials. We investigated how clinical trials for antivirals need to be designed, especially focusing on the sample size in randomized controlled trials. A modeling study was conducted to help understand the reasons behind inconsistent clinical trial findings and to design better clinical trials. We first analyzed longitudinal viral load data for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) without antiviral treatment by use of a within-host virus dynamics model. The fitted viral load was categorized into 3 different groups by a clustering approach. Comparison of the estimated parameters showed that the 3 distinct groups were characterized by different virus decay rates (p-value < 0.001). The mean decay rates were 1.17 d -1 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.27 d -1 ), 0.777 d -1 (0.716 to 0.838 d -1 ), and 0.450 d -1 (0.378 to 0.522 d -1 ) for the 3 groups, respectively. Such heterogeneity in virus dynamics could be a confounding variable if it is associated with treatment allocation in compassionate use programs (i.e., observational studies). Subsequently, we mimicked randomized controlled trials of antivirals by simulation. An antiviral effect causing a 95% to 99% reduction in viral replication was added to the model. To be realistic, we assumed that randomization and treatment are initiated with some time lag after symptom onset. Using the duration of virus shedding as an outcome, the sample size to detect a statistically significant mean difference between the treatment and placebo groups (1:1 allocation) was 13,603 and 11,670 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) per group if all patients are enrolled regardless of timing of randomization. The sample size was reduced to 584 and 458 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) if only patients who are treated within 1 day of symptom onset are enrolled. We confirmed the sample size was similarly reduced when using cumulative viral load in log scale as an outcome. We used a conventional virus dynamics model, which may not fully reflect the detailed mechanisms of viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The model needs to be calibrated in terms of both parameter settings and model structure, which would yield more reliable sample size calculation. In this study, we found that estimated association in observational studies can be biased due to large heterogeneity in viral dynamics among infected individuals, and statistically significant effect in randomized controlled trials may be difficult to be detected due to small sample size. The sample size can be dramatically reduced by recruiting patients immediately after developing symptoms. We believe this is the first study investigated the study design of clinical trials for antiviral treatment using the viral dynamics model.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Conflicting Information and Compliance With COVID-19 Behavioral Recommendations

The prevalence of COVID-19 is shaped by behavioral responses to recommendations and warnings. Available information on the disease determines the population’s perception of danger and thus its behavior; this information changes dynamically, and different sources may report conflicting information. We study the feedback between disease, information, and stay-at-home behavior using a hybrid agent-based-system dynamics model that incorporates evolving trust in sources of information. We use this model to investigate how divergent reporting and conflicting information can alter the trajectory of a public health crisis. The model shows that divergent reporting not only alters disease prevalence over time, but also increases polarization of the population’s behaviors and trust in different sources of information.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics - Application to COVID-19

This report documents a statistical method for the "real-time" characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of daily counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information for the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and is predicated on a model for the distribution of the incubation period. The model parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. The method is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, using data at the country, provincial (e.g., states) and regional (e.g. county) levels. The epidemiological model includes a stochastic component due to uncertainties in the incubation period. This model-form uncertainty is accommodated by a pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings MCMC sampler, which produces posterior distributions that reflect this uncertainty. We approximate the discrepancy between the data and the epidemiological model using Gaussian and negative binomial error models; the latter was motivated by the over-dispersed count data. For small daily counts we find the performance of the calibrated models to be similar for the two error models. For large daily counts the negative-binomial approximation is numerically unstable unlike the Gaussian error model. Application of the model at the country level (for the United States, Germany, Italy, etc.) generally provided accurate forecasts, as the data consisted of large counts which suppressed the day-to-day variations in the observations. Further, the bulk of the data is sourced over the duration before the relaxation of the curbs on population mixing, and is not confounded by any discernible country-wide second wave of infections. At the state-level, where reporting was poor or which evinced few infections (e.g., New Mexico), the variance in the data posed some, though not insurmountable, difficulties, and forecasts were able to capture the data with large uncertainty bounds. The method was found to be sufficiently sensitive to discern the flattening of the infection and epidemic curve due to shelter-in-place orders after around 90% quantile for the incubation distribution (about 10 days for COVID-19). The proposed model was also used at a regional level to compare the forecasts for the central and north-west regions of New Mexico. Modeling the data for these regions illustrated different disease spread dynamics captured by the model. While in the central region the daily counts peaked in the late April, in the north-west region the ramp-up continued for approximately three more weeks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating efficacy of indoor non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 outbreaks with a coupled spatial-SIR agent-based simulation framework

Contagious respiratory diseases, such as COVID-19, depend on sufficiently prolonged exposures for the successful transmission of the underlying pathogen. It is important that organizations evaluate the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions aimed at mitigating viral transmission among their personnel. We have developed a operational risk assessment simulation framework that couples a spatial agent-based model of movement with an agent-based SIR model to assess the relative risks of different intervention strategies. By applying our model on MIT’s Stata center, we assess the impacts of three possible dimensions of intervention: one-way vs unrestricted movement, population size allowed onsite, and frequency of leaving designated work location for breaks. We find that there is no significant impact made by one-way movement restrictions over unrestricted movement. Instead, we find that reducing the frequency at which individuals leave their workstations combined with lowering the number of individuals admitted below the current recommendations lowers the likelihood of highly connected individuals within the contact networks that emerge, which in turn lowers the overall risk of infection. We discover three classes of possible interventions based on their epidemiological effects. By assuming a direct relationship between data on secondary attack rates and transmissibility in the agent-based SIR model, we compare relative infection risk of four respiratory illnesses, MERS, SARS, COVID-19, and Measles, within the simulated area, and recommend appropriate intervention guidelines.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Metagenomic Alterations in Gut Microbiota Precede and Predict Onset of Colitis in the IL10 Gene-Deficient Murine Model

SUMMARY. Currently, predictive markers for the development andcourse of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) are not available. This study supports the notion that gut microbiome metagenomic profiles could be developed into a useful tool to assess risk and manage human IBD. BACKGROUND & AIMS: Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) are chronic inflammatory disorders where predictive bio-markers for the disease development and clinical course are sorely needed for development of prevention and early intervention strategies that can be implemented to improve clinical outcomes. Since gut microbiome alterations can reflect and/or contribute to impending host health changes, we examined whether gut microbiota metagenomic profiles would provide more robust measures for predicting disease outcomes in colitis-prone hosts. METHODS: Using the interleukin (IL) 10 gene-deficient (IL10KO) murine model where early life dysbiosis from antibiotic (cefoperozone [CPZ]) treated dams vertically transferred to pups increases risk for colitis later in life, we investigated temporal metagenomic profiles in the gut microbiota of post-weaning offspring and determined their relationship to even-tual clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Compared to controls, offspring acquiring maternalCPZ-induced dysbiosis exhibited a restructuring of intestinal microbial membership in both bacteriome and mycobiome that was associated with alterations in specific functional subsystems. Furthermore, among IL10 KO offspring fromCPZ-treated dams, several functional subsystems, particularly nitrogen metabolism, diverged between mice that developed spontaneous colitis (CPZ-colitis) versus those that did not (CPZ-no-colitis) at a time point prior to eventual clinical outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide support that functional metagenomic profiling of gut microbes has potential and promise meriting further study for development of tools to assess risk and manage human IBD.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗