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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2000

Contractile reserve and intracellular calcium regulation in mouse myocytes from normal and hypertrophied failing hearts

Mouse myocyte contractility and the changes induced by pressure overload are not fully understood. We studied contractile reserve in isolated left ventricular myocytes from mice with ascending aortic stenosis (AS) during compensatory hypertrophy (4-week AS) and the later stage of early failure (7-week AS) and from control mice. Myocyte contraction and [Ca(2+)](i) transients with fluo-3 were measured simultaneously. At baseline (0.5 Hz, 1.5 mmol/L [Ca(2+)](o), 25 degrees C), the amplitude of myocyte shortening and peak-systolic [Ca(2+)](i) in 7-week AS were not different from those of controls, whereas contraction, relaxation, and the decline of [Ca(2+)](i) transients were slower. In response to the challenge of high [Ca(2+)](o), fractional cell shortening was severely depressed with reduced peak-systolic [Ca(2+)](i) in 7-week AS compared with controls. In response to rapid pacing stimulation, cell shortening and peak-systolic [Ca(2+)](i) increased in controls, but this response was depressed in 7-week AS. In contrast, the responses to both challenge with high [Ca(2+)](o) and rapid pacing in 4-week AS were similar to those of controls. Although protein levels of Na(+)-Ca(2+) exchanger were increased in both 4-week and 7-week AS, the ratio of SR Ca(2+)-ATPase to phospholamban protein levels was depressed in 7-week AS compared with controls but not in 4-week AS. This was associated with an impaired capacity to increase sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca(2+) load during high work states in 7-week AS myocytes. In hypertrophied failing mouse myocytes, depressed contractile reserve is related to an impaired augmentation of systolic [Ca(2+)](i) and SR Ca(2+) load and simulates findings in human failing myocytes.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1998

Life and death in the microcirculation: a role for angiotensin II

OBJECTIVE: Angiotensin II (ANGII) plays a critical role in the maintenance of the microcirculation and in the anatomical loss of microvessels (rarefaction) that occurs in low renin forms of hypertension and in animals fed a high-salt diet. Elevations in sodium intake can trigger a series of hemodynamic and hormonal responses culminating in a substantial rarefaction of small arterioles and capillaries in both normal and reduced renal mass hypertensive rats. METHODS: Immunohistochemistry, Northern blot, and reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) analysis of microdissected blood vessels were used to localize ANGII receptors in the microcirculation. Chronic infusion of ANGII and other physiologic and pharmacologic manipulations of the reninangiotensin system in rats was combined with morphologic and mathematical analysis of the network architecture. RESULTS: We have shown that rarefaction of the microcirculation can cause an increase in total peripheral resistance, reduced tissue perfusion, decreased oxygen delivery, and impaired organ function. Although the mechanisms by which this occurs are not well understood, a number of key observations point to a role for the renin-angiotensin system in this effect. First, ANGII infused systemically at subpressor levels, or locally into the skeletal muscle interstitium, can induce significant microvessel growth. Second, localization of ANGII receptor proteins by immunohistochemistry and Western blotting and RNA localization by RT-PCR confirm the presence of AT1 receptors, which are growth-stimulatory, and AT2 receptors, which are growth-inhibitory in the microcirculation. Third, maintenance of ANGII at normal levels during periods of hypertension or high-salt diet completely eliminates rarefaction. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, these results support the hypothesis that ANGII acting through AT1- and AT2-receptor mechanisms modulate vessel density during high-salt diet and hypertension.

Review↗
NASA NTRS1995

Human parathyroid hormone-(1-38) restores cancellous bone to the immobilized, osteopenic proximal tibial metaphysis in rats

The purpose of this study was to determine if human parathyroid hormone-(1-38) (hPTH(1-38)) can restore cancellous bone mass to the established osteopenic, immobilized proximal tibial metaphyses of female rats. The right hindlimbs of 6-month-old female Sprague-Dawley rats were immobilized by bandaging the right hindlimbs to the abdomen. After 30 days of right hindlimb immobilization, the rats were subcutaneously injected with 200 micrograms hPTH(1-38)/kg/day for 15 days (short-term treatment) or 75 days (longer-term treatment). Static bone histomorphometry was performed on the primary spongiosa, and both static and dynamic histomorphometry were performed on the secondary spongiosa of the right proximal tibial metaphyses. Immobilization for 30 days without treatment decreased trabecular bone area, number, and thickness in both primary and secondary spongiosa, and induced an increase in eroded perimeter and a decrease in tissue referent-bone formation rate in the secondary spongiosa. These changes reached a new steady state thereafter. Treatment with 200 micrograms hPTH(1-38)/kg/day for 15 days, beginning 30 days after immobilization, significantly increased trabecular bone area, thickness, and number in both primary and secondary spongiosa despite continuous immobilization when compared with controls. The short-term PTH treatment (15 days) significantly increased labeling perimeter, mineral apposition rate, and tissue referent-bone formation rate in the secondary spongiosa and stimulated longitudinal bone growth as compared with the controls. Longer PTH treatment (75 days) further increased trabecular bone area, thickness, and number as compared with controls and groups given short-term PTH treatment (15 days). The bone formation indices in the secondary spongiosa of the longer-term treated rats were lower than those of the short-term treated group, but they were still higher than those of controls. Our findings indicate that PTH treatment stimulates cancellous bone formation, and restores and adds extra cancellous bone to the established, disuse-osteopenic proximal tibial metaphysis of female rats with continuously immobilized right hindlimbs. These results suggest that PTH may be useful in treating disuse-induced osteoporosis in humans.

NASA Program Space Physiology and Countermeasures↗
NASA NTRS1992

Alterations in left ventricular diastolic function in conscious dogs with pacing-induced heart failure

We investigated in conscious dogs (a) the effects of heart failure induced by chronic rapid ventricular pacing on the sequence of development of left ventricular (LV) diastolic versus systolic dysfunction and (b) whether the changes were load dependent or secondary to alterations in structure. LV systolic and diastolic dysfunction were evident within 24 h after initiation of pacing and occurred in parallel over 3 wk. LV systolic function was reduced at 3 wk, i.e., peak LV dP/dt fell by -1,327 +/- 105 mmHg/s and ejection fraction by -22 +/- 2%. LV diastolic dysfunction also progressed over 3 wk of pacing, i.e., tau increased by +14.0 +/- 2.8 ms and the myocardial stiffness constant by +6.5 +/- 1.4, whereas LV chamber stiffness did not change. These alterations were associated with increases in LV end-systolic (+28.6 +/- 5.7 g/cm2) and LV end-diastolic stresses (+40.4 +/- 5.3 g/cm2). When stresses and heart rate were matched at the same levels in the control and failure states, the increases in tau and myocardial stiffness were no longer observed, whereas LV systolic function remained depressed. There were no increases in connective tissue content in heart failure. Thus, pacing-induced heart failure in conscious dogs is characterized by major alterations in diastolic function which are reversible with normalization of increased loading condition.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS1992

Prolonged lobar hypoxia in vivo enhances the responsivity of isolated pulmonary veins to hypoxia

The hypoxic response of pulmonary vessels isolated from eight sheep whose right apical lobes (RAL) had inspired 100% N2 for 20 h was studied. The RAL of these conscious sheep inspired hypoxic gas and the remainder of the lung inspired air. During hypoxia, RAL perfusion was 33 +/- 3% of its air value, carotid arterial PO2 averaged 86 +/- 3 mm Hg and pulmonary perfusion pressure was not significantly different from the initial control period when the RAL inspired air. At the end of the hypoxic exposure, the sheep were killed, and pulmonary artery and vein rings (0.5 to 2 mm inner diameter) were isolated from both the RAL and the right cardiac lobe, which served as the control lobe (CL). Arteries from the RAL and CL did not contract in response to 6% O2/6% CO2/88% N2 (hypoxia). In contrast, RAL veins did contract vigorously in response to hypoxia, whereas CL veins did not contract or contracted only minimally. Rubbing of the endothelium or prior incubation of RAL veins with catalase (1,200 units/ml), indomethacin (10(-5) M), or the thromboxane A2/prostaglandin H2 (TxA2/PGH2) receptor antagonist, SQ 29,548 (3 X 10(-6) M) each significantly reduced the response to hypoxia. RAL veins were also found to be more reactive than CL veins to the prostaglandin endoperoxide analogue U46619. We conclude that prolonged lobar hypoxia in vivo increases the responsivity of isolated pulmonary veins to hypoxia. These contractions may result from an increase in reactive O2 species, which in turn modify production of, metabolism of, and/or tissue responsivity to TxA2/PGH2.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS1992

Abnormalities in intracellular calcium regulation and contractile function in myocardium from dogs with pacing-induced heart failure

24 d of rapid ventricular pacing induced dilated cardiomyopathy with both systolic and diastolic dysfunction in conscious, chronically instrumented dogs. We studied mechanical properties and intracellular calcium (Ca2+i) transients of trabeculae carneae isolated from 15 control dogs (n = 32) and 11 dogs with pacing-induced cardiac failure (n = 26). Muscles were stretched to maximum length at 30 degrees C and stimulated at 0.33 Hz; a subset (n = 17 control, n = 17 myopathic) was loaded with the [Ca2+]i indicator aequorin. Peak tension was depressed in the myopathic muscles, even in the presence of maximally effective (i.e., 16 mM) [Ca2+] in the perfusate. However, peak [Ca2+]i was similar (0.80 +/- 0.13 vs. 0.71 +/- 0.05 microM; [Ca2+]o = 2.5 mM), suggesting that a decrease in Cai2+ availability was not responsible for the decreased contractility. The time for decline from the peak of the Cai2+ transient was prolonged in the myopathic group, which correlated with prolongation of isometric contraction and relaxation. However, similar end-diastolic [Ca2+]i was achieved in both groups (0.29 +/- 0.05 vs. 0.31 +/- 0.02 microM), indicating that Cai2+ homeostasis can be maintained in myopathic hearts. The inotropic response of the myopathic muscles to milrinone was depressed compared with the controls. However, when cAMP production was stimulated by pretreatment with forskolin, the response of the myopathic muscles to milrinone was improved. Our findings provide direct evidence that abnormal [Ca2+]i handling is an important cause of contractile dysfunction in dogs with pacing-induced heart failure and suggest that deficient production of cAMP may be an important cause of these changes in excitation-contraction coupling.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2005

Vitamin E provides protection for bone in mature hindlimb unloaded male rats

The deleterious effects of skeletal unloading on bone mass and strength may, in part, result from increased production of oxygen-derived free radicals and proinflammatory cytokines. This study was designed to evaluate the ability of vitamin E (alpha-tocopherol), a free-radical scavenger with antiinflammatory properties, to protect against bone loss caused by skeletal unloading in mature male Sprague-Dawley rats. A 2 x 3 factorial design was used with either hindlimb unloading (HU) or normal loading (ambulatory; AMB), and low-dose (LD; 15 IU/kg diet), adequate-dose (AD; 75 IU/kg diet), or high-dose (HD; 500 IU/kg diet) vitamin E (DL-alpha-tocopherol acetate). To optimize the effects of vitamin E on bone, dietary treatments were initiated 9 weeks prior to unloading and continued during the 4-week unloading period, at which time animals were euthanized and blood and tissue samples were collected. Serum vitamin E was dose-dependently increased, confirming the vitamin E status of animals. The HD treatment improved oxidation parameters, as indicated by elevated serum ferric-reducing ability and a trend toward reducing tissue lipid peroxidation. Histomorphometric analysis of the distal femur revealed significant reductions in trabecular thickness (TbTh), double-labeled surface (dLS/BS), and rate of bone formation to bone volume (BFR/BV) due by HU. AMB animals on the HD diet and HU animals on the LD diet had reduced bone surface normalized to tissue volume (BS/TV) and trabecular number (TbN); however, the HD vitamin E protected against these changes in the HU animals. Our findings suggest that vitamin E supplementation provides modest bone protective effects during skeletal unloading.

NASA Discipline Musculoskeletal↗
NASA NTRS2015

EcAMSat: Effect of Space-Flight on Antibiotic Resistance of a Pathogenic Bacterium and its Genetic Basis

Human immune response is compromised in space and incidence of urinary tract infections (UTI) in astronauts has been reported. We have found that the causative agent of UTI, the uropathogenic Escherichia coli, becomes more resistant to gentamicin (Gm), which is commonly used to treat this disease, under modeled microgravity conditions (MMG), the increase being controlled by the stress response master regulator, σs. While the wild type bacterium becomes virtually invincible under MMG, the strain missing this sigma factor barely survives. We report here preparatory ground work for testing this finding in space flight on a nanosatellite. We have shown that the effect of Gm treatment on culture viability is directly correlated to increased Alamar Blue (AB) reduction; we have identified conditions to keep the experimental elements - the bacterial cultures, Gm, and AB - in a state of viability and potency to permit successful spaceflight experimentation given the necessary constraints. Spaceflight kinetics of AB reduction will be transmitted from the satellite via telemetry. The PharmaSat hardware previously used for space experimentation with yeast was modified to permit studies with bacteria by reducing the filter pore size and increasing fluidics volume to enable more fluid exchanges. Several verification tests have been run using the nanosatellite's flight software and prototype hardware. Cells were grown to stationary phase to induce the σs-controlled stress resistance and treated with Gm. Without Gm, the mutant took longer than the wild type to reduce the AB; this time difference increased almost 8 fold at 55 μg/mL Gm concentration. Thus, using flight hardware the mutant shows similarly increased sensitivity to Gm compared to the wild type to that found in our pilot microtiter plate experiments. Previous inflight experiments have given contradictory results concerning bacterial antibiotic resistance; none has yet explored the involvement of specific genes in this phenomenon. With our system ready to fly in late 2015/early 2016, these questions can be approached

uropathogenic E. coli↗
NASA NTRS2017

Mapping by VESGEN of Blood Vessels in the Retinas of Astronauts Pre- and Post-Flight to the ISS

Research by NASA [1] established that significant risks for visual and ocular impairments associated with increased intracranial pressure (VIIP) are incurred by microgravity spaceflight, especially long-duration missions. It is well established in physiology and pathology that a fundamental role of the microvasculature is to mediate fluid transfers and remodel actively in response to environmental, immune and other stresses. We therefore hypothesize that remodeling of retinal blood vessels necessarily occurs during accommodation of microgravity-induced fluid shifts prior to subsequent development of visual and ocular impairments. Potential contributions of retinal vascular remodeling to VIIP etiology are therefore being investigated by NASA's innovative VESsel GENeration Analysis (VESGEN) software for two studies: (1) U.S. crew members before and after ISS missions, and (2) head-down tilt in human subjects before and after 70 days of bed rest. We anticipate that results of the two studies will be complete by the Investigators Workshop (January 22, 2017). METHODS: For the 2013 NASA NRA award, we are concluding the analysis of 30 degree infrared (IR) Heidelberg Spectralis images of retinal blood vessels by VESGEN (patents pending), a mature, automated software developed as a translational and basic vascular research discovery tool, particularly for retinal vascular disease. Subjects of our retrospective study include eight ISS crew members monitored for routine occupational surveillance pre- and post-flight, who provided their study consents to NASAs Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) in coordination with approval of the VESGEN retrospective study protocol by NASAs Institutional Review Board (IRB). The ophthalmic retinal images (average image resolution, approximately 5.6 microns per pixel) are blinded as to pre and post ISS status until the second portion of our study, when VESGEN results will be correlated with other ophthalmic and medical findings for the crew members. Due to image resolution challenges, a novel Matlab tool was developed for aligning pre and post images, and comparing (querying) the two images for differences in the morphology of small vessels. RESULTS: During the past year, LSAH approved the release of all astronaut retinal images to our study for VESGEN analysis. Substantial progress on the initial blinded portion of the study is in place. We anticipate that VESGEN analysis of the 32 Spectralis IR retinal images will be complete for presentation at the 2017 IWS meeting. CONCLUSIONS: Modified retinal vascular patterning may offer early-stage predictions of ocular changes resulting in decreased visual acuity for the VIIP syndrome. Novel insights provided by VESGEN into progressively pathological and blinding vascular remodeling in the human retina currently help to guide other NIH- and NASA-supported therapeutic studies of retinal disease and modeling of the VIIP risk. Results of our vascular investigation of the retinas of astronauts pre- and post-flight may help advance the understanding of both healthy and pathological adaptations to fluid shifts in microgravity associated with the VIIP syndrome. Preliminary results indicate that imaging of higher resolution, such as the new OCT angiography (OCT-A) technology, will be required to determine conclusively the role of the smaller retinal and choroidal vessels in VIIP etiology.

VESGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of partial volume correction and analysis of longitudinal [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET imaging in Alzheimer's disease using linear mixed-effects models

Purpose: We evaluated the impact of partial volume correction (PVC) methods on the quantification of longitudinal [ 18 F]GTP1 tau positron-emission tomography (PET) in Alzheimer's disease and the suitability of describing the tau pathology burden temporal trajectories using linear mixed-effects models (LMEM). Methods: We applied van Cittert iterative deconvolution (VC), 2-compartment, and 3-compartment, and the geometric transfer matrix plus region-based voxelwise methods to data acquired in an Alzheimer's disease natural history study over 18 months at a single imaging site. We determined the optimal PVC method by comparing the standardized uptake value ratio change (%ΔSUVR) between diagnostic and tau burden–level groups and the longitudinal repeatability derived from the LMEM. The performance of LMEM analysis for calculating %ΔSUVR was evaluated in a natural history study and in a multisite clinical trial of semorinemab in prodromal to mild Alzheimer's disease by comparing results to traditional per-visit estimates. Results: The VC, 2-compartment, and 3-compartment PVC methods had similar performance, whereas region-based voxelwise overcorrected regions with a higher tau burden. The lowest within-subject variability and acceptable group separation scores were observed without PVC. The LMEM-derived %ΔSUVR values were similar to the per-visit estimates with lower variability. Conclusion: The results indicate that the tested PVC methods do not offer a clear advantage or improvement over non-PVC images for the quantification of longitudinal [ 18 F]GTP1 PET data. LMEM offers a robust framework for the longitudinal tau PET quantification with low longitudinal test–retest variability. Clinical trial registration: NCT02640092 and NCT03289143.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Synthetic method of analogues for emerging infectious disease forecasting

The Method of Analogues (MOA) has gained popularity in the past decade for infectious disease forecasting due to its non-parametric nature. In MOA, the local behavior observed in a time series is matched to the local behaviors of several historical time series. The known values that directly follow the historical time series that best match the observed time series are used to calculate a forecast. This non-parametric approach leverages historical trends to produce forecasts without extensive parameterization, making it highly adaptable. However, MOA is limited in scenarios where historical data is sparse. This limitation was particularly evident during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, where the emerging global epidemic had little-to-no historical data. In this work, we propose a new method inspired by MOA, called the Synthetic Method of Analogues (sMOA). sMOA replaces historical disease data with a library of synthetic data that describe a broad range of possible disease trends. This model circumvents the need to estimate explicit parameter values by instead matching segments of ongoing time series data to a comprehensive library of synthetically generated segments of time series data. We demonstrate that sMOA has competitive performance with state-of-the-art infectious disease forecasting models, out-performing 78% of models from the COVID-19 Forecasting Hub in terms of averaged Mean Absolute Error and 76% of models from the COVID-19 Forecasting Hub in terms of averaged Weighted Interval Score. Additionally, we introduce a novel uncertainty quantification methodology designed for the onset of emerging epidemics. Developing versatile approaches that do not rely on historical data and can maintain high accuracy in the face of novel pandemics is critical for enhancing public health decision-making and strengthening preparedness for future outbreaks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Monarch Initiative in 2019: an integrative data and analytic platform connecting phenotypes to genotypes across species

In biology and biomedicine, relating phenotypic outcomes with genetic variation and environmental factors remains a challenge: patient phenotypes may not match known diseases, candidate variants may be in genes that haven’t been characterized, research organisms may not recapitulate human or veterinary diseases, environmental factors affecting disease outcomes are unknown or undocumented, and many resources must be queried to find potentially significant phenotypic associations. The Monarch Initiative (https://monarchinitiative.org) integrates information on genes, variants, genotypes, phenotypes and diseases in a variety of species, and allows powerful ontology-based search. We develop many widely adopted ontologies that together enable sophisticated computational analysis, mechanistic discovery and diagnostics of Mendelian diseases. Our algorithms and tools are widely used to identify animal models of human disease through phenotypic similarity, for differential diagnostics and to facilitate translational research. Launched in 2015, Monarch has grown with regards to data (new organisms, more sources, better modeling); new API and standards; ontologies (new Mondo unified disease ontology, improvements to ontologies such as HPO and uPheno); user interface (a redesigned website); and community development. Monarch data, algorithms and tools are being used and extended by resources such as GA4GH and NCATS Translator, among others, to aid mechanistic discovery and diagnostics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Daily Forecasting of Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification, United States

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policymaking, we formulated a mathematical model for coronavirus disease transmission within a regional population. This compartmental model accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a nonexponentially distributed incubation period, asymptomatic persons, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease. We used Bayesian inference to calibrate region-specific models for consistency with daily reports of confirmed cases in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. We also quantified uncertainty in parameter estimates and forecasts. This online learning approach enables early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Use of Giovanni System in Public Health Application

The role of environment and climate in propagating infectious disease has long been recognized since the 5th century. The effect is particularly evident in vector-borne diseases such as malaria where temperature, precipitation and humidity influence the lifecycle of the pathogens and mosquitoes. Likewise, the transmission of respiratory diseases is also often associated with climatic factors. For example, a recent study showed that low humidity and temperature provides efficient condition for seasonal influenza transmission. Understanding of how environment and climate affect infectious diseases would essentially provide guides to prevent and control the spread of disease. Toward this end, our group has developed models for infectious disease risk such as for malaria, dengue and influenza that are driven by climatic and environmental inputs. Results will be presented, especially those that used TRMM data from GIOVANNI.

Soebiyanto, Radina↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vaccine-Associated Enhanced Respiratory Disease following Influenza Virus Infection in Ferrets Recapitulates the Model in Pigs

Influenza A virus (IAV) causes respiratory disease in swine and humans. Vaccines are used to prevent influenza illness in both populations but must be frequently updated due to rapidly evolving strains. Mismatch between the circulating strains and the strains contained in vaccines may cause loss of efficacy. Whole inactivated virus (WIV) vaccines with adjuvant, utilized by the swine industry, are effective against antigenically similar viruses; however, vaccine-associated enhanced respiratory disease (VAERD) may happen when the WIV is antigenically mismatched with the infecting virus. VAERD is a repeatable model in pigs, but had yet to be experimentally demonstrated in other mammalian species. We recapitulated VAERD in ferrets, a standard benchmark animal model for studying human influenza infection, in a direct comparison to VAERD in pigs. Both species were vaccinated with WIV with oil-in-water adjuvant containing a d -1 H1N2 (1B.2.2) derived from the pre-2009 human seasonal lineage, then challenged with a 2009 pandemic H1N1 (H1N1pdm09, 1A.3.3.2) 5 weeks after vaccination. Nonvaccinated and challenged groups showed typical signs of influenza disease, but the mismatched vaccinated and challenged pigs and ferrets showed elevated clinical signs, despite similar viral loads. VAERD-affected pigs exhibited a 2-fold increase in lung lesions, while VAERDaffected ferrets showed a 4-fold increase. Similar to pigs, antibodies from VAERD-affected ferrets preferentially bound to the HA2 domain of the H1N1pdm09 challenge strain. These results indicate that VAERD is not limited to pigs, as demonstrated here in ferrets, and the need to consider VAERD when evaluating new vaccine platforms and strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mechanistic modelling of SARS-CoV-2 and other infectious diseases and the effects of therapeutics

Modern viral kinetic modeling and its application to therapeutics is a field that attracted the attention of the medical, pharmaceutical and modeling communities during the early days of the AIDS epidemic. Its successes lead to applications of modeling methods not only to HIV but a plethora of other viruses, such as hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and cytomegalovirus (CMV), which along with HIV cause chronic diseases, and viruses such as influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), West Nile virus (WNV), Zika virus, and SAR-CoV-2, which generally cause acute infections. Here we first review the historical development of mathematical models to understand HIV and HCV infections and the effects of treatment by fitting the models to clinical data. Furthermore, we then focus on recent efforts and contributions of applying these models towards understanding SARS-CoV-2 infection and highlight outstanding questions where modeling can provide crucial insights and help to optimize non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions of the COVID-19 pandemic. The review is written from our personal perspective emphasizing the power of simple target cell limited models that provided important insights and then their evolution into more complex models that captured more of the virology and immunology. To quote Albert Einstein “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler”, and this idea underlies the modeling we describe below.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗