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At least 199 records · Page 11

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DOE OSTI2023

An Online Joint Optimization–Estimation Architecture for Distribution Networks

Here in this article, we propose an optimal joint optimization-estimation architecture for distribution networks, which jointly solves the optimal power flow (OPF) problem and static state estimation (SE) problem through an online gradient-based feedback algorithm. The main objective is to enable a fast and timely interaction between the OPF decisions and state estimators with limited sensor measurements. First, convergence and optimality of the proposed algorithm are analytically established. Then, the proposed gradient-based algorithm is modified by introducing statistical information of the inherent estimation and linearization errors for an improved and robust performance of the online OPF decisions. Overall, the proposed method eliminates the traditional separation of operation and monitoring, where optimization and estimation usually operate at distinct layers and different time scales. Hence, it enables a computationally affordable, efficient, and robust online operational framework for distribution networks under time-varying settings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2015

A Probabilistic Framework for Quantifying Mixed Uncertainties in Cyber Attacker Payoffs

Quantification and propagation of uncertainties in cyber attacker payoffs is a key aspect within multiplayer, stochastic security games. These payoffs may represent penalties or rewards associated with player actions and are subject to various sources of uncertainty, including: (1) cyber-system state, (2) attacker type, (3) choice of player actions, and (4) cyber-system state transitions over time. Past research has primarily focused on representing defender beliefs about attacker payoffs as point utility estimates. More recently, within the physical security domain, attacker payoff uncertainties have been represented as Uniform and Gaussian probability distributions, and mathematical intervals. For cyber-systems, probability distributions may help address statistical (aleatory) uncertainties where the defender may assume inherent variability or randomness in the factors contributing to the attacker payoffs. However, systematic (epistemic) uncertainties may exist, where the defender may not have sufficient knowledge or there is insufficient information about the attacker’s payoff generation mechanism. Such epistemic uncertainties are more suitably represented as generalizations of probability boxes. This paper explores the mathematical treatment of such mixed payoff uncertainties. A conditional probabilistic reasoning approach is adopted to organize the dependencies between a cyber-system’s state, attacker type, player actions, and state transitions. This also enables the application of probabilistic theories to propagate various uncertainties in the attacker payoffs. An example implementation of this probabilistic framework and resulting attacker payoff distributions are discussed. A goal of this paper is also to highlight this uncertainty quantification problem space to the cyber security research community and encourage further advancements in this area.

cyber attacker payoffs↗

DOE OSTI2020

Light element ($$Z=1,2$$) production from spontaneous ternary fission of $$^{252}$$Cf

Abstract The yields of light elements ( $$Z=1,2$$ Z = 1 , 2 ) obtained from spontaneous ternary fission of $$^{252}$$ 252 Cf are treated within a nonequilibrium approach, and the contribution of unstable nuclei and excited bound states is taken into account. These light cluster yields may be used to probe dense matter, and to infer in-medium corrections such as Pauli blocking which is determined by the nucleon density. Continuum correlations are calculated from scattering phase shifts using the Beth-Uhlenbeck formula, and the effect of medium modification is estimated. The relevant distribution is reconstructed from the measured yields of isotopes. This describes the state of the nucleon system at scission and cluster formation, using only three Lagrange parameters which are the nonequilibrium counterparts of the temperature and chemical potentials, as defined in thermodynamic equilibrium. We concluded that a simple nuclear statistical equilibrium model neglecting continuum correlations and medium effects is not able to describe the measured distribution of H and He isotopes. Moreover, the freeze-out concept may serve as an important ingredient to the nonequilibrium approach using the relevant statistical operator concept.

Röpke, G.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Machine Learning-Based Method to Estimate Transformer Primary-Side Voltages with Limited Customer-Side AMI Measurements

Distribution control applications such as volt/var optimization, network reconfiguration, and distribution automation require accurate knowledge of the distribution system state. The lack of sufficient sensors on the primary side of distribution networks often limits the accuracy of the control decisions by these applications. The deployment of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) provides utilities an opportunity to translate the AMI data on the secondary onto the primary so that it can be used as pseudo-measurements to augment the limited existing measurements on the primary. This paper develops an approach for estimating service transformer primary-side voltages by using limited secondary-side AMI measurements. The estimated primary-side voltages can be used by utilities as pseudo-measurements for distribution control applications. The detailed secondary model topology, which is an essential input data for many existing algorithms, is not required for the proposed method. The performance of the proposed method is validated by using AMI measurements from the field and an actual distribution feeder model of San Diego Gas & Electric Company.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Hybrid Data-Driven and Model-Based Anomaly Detection Scheme for DER Operation: Preprint

This paper proposes a hybrid data and model-based anomaly detection for securing the operation of distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution grids. Data-driven autoencoders (AE) are set up at the edge level by taking local DER data and detect anomalous operations by leveraging the reconstruction ability. In parallel, model-based state estimation (SE) is running at the system level by taking system models and measurements, the anomalies are identified by analyzing the measurements residual. The hybrid scheme preserves the benefits of both data-driven and model-based analysis and thus improves the robustness and accuracy of anomaly detection. It can be established by getting full use of the existing infrastructures in distribution grids. Numerical tests on a realistic distribution feeder in Southern California highlight the effectiveness as well as benefits of the proposed scheme.

anomaly detection↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Comparison of DER Voltage Regulation Technologies Using Real-Time Simulations

Grid operators are now considering using distributed energy resources (DERs) to provide distribution voltage regulation rather than installing costly voltage regulation hardware. DER devices include multiple adjustable reactive power control functions, so grid operators have the difficult decision of selecting the best operating mode and settings for the DER. In this work, we develop a novel state estimation-based particle swarm optimization (PSO) for distribution voltage regulation using DER-reactive power setpoints and establish a methodology to validate and compare it against alternative DER control technologies (volt–VAR (VV), extremum seeking control (ESC)) in increasingly higher fidelity environments. Distribution system real-time simulations with virtualized and power hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL)-interfaced DER equipment were run to evaluate the implementations and select the best voltage regulation technique. Each method improved the distribution system voltage profile; VV did not reach the global optimum but the PSO and ESC methods optimized the reactive power contributions of multiple DER devices to approach the optimal solution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Machine Learning-Based Method to Estimate Transformer Primary-Side Voltages with Limited Customer-Side AMI Measurements

Distribution control applications such as volt/var optimization, network reconfiguration, and distribution automation require accurate knowledge of the distribution system state. The lack of sufficient sensors on the primary side of distribution networks often limits the accuracy of the control decisions by these applications. The deployment of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) provides utilities an opportunity to translate the AMI data on the secondary onto the primary so that it can be used as pseudo-measurements to augment the limited existing measurements on the primary. This paper develops a machine learning based approach for estimating service transformer primary-side voltages by using limited secondary-side AMI measurement. The machine learning model is developed by using random forest algorithm. The estimated primary-side voltages can be used by utilities as pseudo-measurements for distribution control applications. The detailed secondary model topology, which is an essential input data for many existing algorithms, is not required for the proposed method. The performance of the proposed method is validated by using AMI measurements from the field and an actual distribution feeder model of San Diego Gas & Electric Company.

advanced metering infrastructure↗

DOE OSTI2020

Recursive Dynamic Compressive Sensing in Smart Distribution Systems

With a transition to a smarter grid, we are witnessing a significant growth in smart metering infrastructure and sensor deployment in the distribution system. The underlying communication infrastructure is stressed due to the large volume of data that is generated by the smart meters/sensors. Furthermore, real time operations such as state estimation and control are impaired due to the lack of reliable aggregation of the data. In this paper, we exploit the underlying sparsity in grid data to implement two recursive dynamic compressive sensing (CS) approaches-streaming modified weighted-`1 CS and Kalman filtered CS. These approaches aim to reconstruct the sparse signal using the current underdetermined measurements and the prior information about the sparse signal and its support set. Slow signal and support change is in distribution grid data is validated using Pecan Street data. Both the IEEE 34 node test feeder system and PecanStreet data are considered as two examples to validate the superior performance of the two recursive CS techniques relative to classic CS.

Karimi, Hazhar Sufi↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Machine Learning-Based Method to Estimate Transformer Primary-Side Voltages with Limited Customer-Side AMI Measurements: Preprint

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1980

Solar heating system at Security State Bank, Starkville, Mississippi

The 312 square feet of Solaron flat plate air collectors provide for 788 square feet of space heating, an estimated 55 percent of the heating load. Solar heated air is distributed to the 96 cubic foot steel cylinder, which contains two inch diameter rocks. An air handler unit moves the air over the collector and into the steel cylinder. Four motorized dampers and two gravity dampers are also part of the system. A Solaron controller which has sensors located at the collectors, rock storage, and at the return air, automatically controls the system. Auxiliary heating energy is provided by electric resistance duct heaters.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2021

Voltage Estimation in Low-Voltage Distribution Grids with Distributed Energy Resources

Present distribution grids generally have limited sensing capabilities and are therefore characterized by low observability. Improved observability is a prerequisite for increasing the hosting capacity of distributed energy resources such as solar photovoltaics (PV) in distribution grids. In this context, this paper presents learning-aided low-voltage estimation using untapped but readily available and widely distributed sensors from cable television (CATV) networks. The cable broadband sensors offer timely local voltage magnitude sensing with 5-minute resolution and can provide an order of magnitude more data on the time-varying state of a secondary distribution system than currently deployed utility sensors. The proposed solution incorporates voltage readings from neighboring CATV sensors, taking into account spatio-temporal aspects of the observations, and estimates single-phase voltage magnitudes at all non-monitored low-voltage buses using random forests. The effectiveness of the proposed approach was demonstrated using a multi-phase 1572-bus feeder from the SMART-DS data set for two case studies passive distribution feeder (without PV) and active distribution feeder (with PV). The analysis was conducted on simulated data, and the results show voltage estimates with a high degree of accuracy, even at extremely low percentages of observable nodes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-area parameter error identification for large power systems

Power grid model parameters may contain errors due to various reasons. Detecting and correcting parameter errors typically requires significant computational effort due to the size and complexity of the parameter database. While the normalized Lagrange multiplier (NLM) method can effectively detect, identify and correct parameter errors, its computational burden could rapidly grow with increasing system size. This paper addresses this issue by proposing a multi-area parameter error identification method. Each area has its own outlier detection tool for detecting the incorrect parameters and measurements within the area. On the other hand, due to the reduced redundancy at area boundaries, parameter errors on branches incident to boundary buses may not be detected. Such errors are subsequently detected by a coordination level estimator completing the system-wide parameter detection procedure. In conclusion, performance of the developed method is demonstrated using the IEEE 118-bus and 2000-bus Texas synthetic systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2014

Distributed Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

Within systems health management, prognostics focuses on predicting the remaining useful life of a system. In the model-based prognostics paradigm, physics-based models are constructed that describe the operation of a system and how it fails. Such approaches consist of an estimation phase, in which the health state of the system is first identified, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine the end of life. Centralized solutions to these problems are often computationally expensive, do not scale well as the size of the system grows, and introduce a single point of failure. In this paper, we propose a novel distributed model-based prognostics scheme that formally describes how to decompose both the estimation and prediction problems into independent local subproblems whose solutions may be easily composed into a global solution. The decomposition of the prognostics problem is achieved through structural decomposition of the underlying models. The decomposition algorithm creates from the global system model a set of local submodels suitable for prognostics. Independent local estimation and prediction problems are formed based on these local submodels, resulting in a scalable distributed prognostics approach that allows the local subproblems to be solved in parallel, thus offering increases in computational efficiency. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the distributed approach, compare the performance with a centralized approach, and establish its scalability. Index Terms-model-based prognostics, distributed prognostics, structural model decomposition ABBREVIATIONS

centrifugal pump↗

DOE OSTI2019

Power System Dynamic State Estimation: Motivations, Definitions, Methodologies and Future Work

This paper summarizes the technical activities of the Task Force on Power System Dynamic State and Parameter Estimation. This Task Force was established by the IEEE Working Group on State Estimation Algorithms to investigate the added benefits of dynamic state and parameter estimation for the enhancement of the reliability, security, and resilience of electric power systems. The motivations and engineering values of dynamic state estimation (DSE) are discussed in detail. Then, a set of potential applications that will rely on DSE is presented and discussed. Furthermore, a unified framework is proposed to clarify the important concepts related to DSE, forecasting-aided state estimation, tracking state estimation and static state estimation. An overview of the current progress in DSE and dynamic parameter estimation is provided. The paper also provides future research needs and directions for the power engineering community.

task force, dynamic state estimation, Parameter Es↗

NASA NTRS1976

Performance analysis of digital FM demodulators for fading channels in the threshold region

The quasi-optimum digital FM demodulators for fading channels reported earlier (1975) reflected the system performance accurately under high signal to noise ratio conditions. In this paper, the prediction of the system performance for low SNR values is considered. A new set of error variance algorithms is developed from the filter algorithm assuming a Gaussian distribution for the state estimation errors and taking the effect of high frequency terms into consideration. Simulation analysis for an FM system with Rician fading channel shows that these algorithms predict the system performance accurately in the threshold region.

Dharamsi, M. T.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Optimal post-experiment estimation of poorly modeled dynamic systems

Recently, a novel strategy for post-experiment state estimation of discretely-measured dynamic systems has been developed. The method accounts for errors in the system dynamic model equations in a more general and rigorous manner than do filter-smoother algorithms. The dynamic model error terms do not require the usual process noise assumptions of zero-mean, symmetrically distributed random disturbances. Instead, the model error terms require no prior assumptions other than piecewise continuity. The resulting state estimates are more accurate than filters for applications in which the dynamic model error clearly violates the typical process noise assumptions, and the available measurements are sparse and/or noisy. Estimates of the dynamic model error, in addition to the states, are obtained as part of the solution of a two-point boundary value problem, and may be exploited for numerous reasons. In this paper, the basic technique is explained, and several example applications are given. Included among the examples are both state estimation and exploitation of the model error estimates.

Mook, D. Joseph↗

DOE OSTI2011

PMU Placement for Dynamic State Tracking of Power Systems

Accurately tracking the state variables (rotor angle and speed) is a necessity for monitoring system stability conditions and assessing the risks of large-scale system collapse. This paper explores how the number and locations of PMUs installed in the system are determined to ensure satisfactory state tracking performance. A search algorithm is presented for determining PMU placement (location and quantity). The algorithm determines a placement that gives small tracking error in polynomial time. A modified, scalable algorithm is also presented. Observability in the presence of faults is considered. Simulation results for a 16-machine and a 50-machine system are provided.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Symmetric-asymmetric collision comparison: Disentangling nuclear structure and subnucleonic structure effects for small system flow

Previous flow measurements in small collision systems were mostly based on highly asymmetric collisions (p+Pb, p+Au, d+Au, 3 He+Au), where both nuclear structure and subnucleonic fluctuations are important. Comparing these asymmetric systems with the newly available symmetric 16 O+ 16 O collisions at RHIC and LHC provides a unique opportunity to disentangle these two contributions. Using Glauber models incorporating both nucleon and quark-level substructure, we analyze multiplicity distributions and initial-state estimators: eccentricities ε n for anisotropic flow ν n and inverse transverse size d ⟂ for radial flow. We find that subnucleonic fluctuations impact O+O collisions differently from asymmetric systems, creating specific patterns in flow observables that enable disentangling the competing contributions. Such experimental comparisons will reduce uncertainties in the initial conditions and improve our understanding of the properties of the QGP-like medium produced in small systems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗