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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic modelling and control strategy of a temperature-driven metal hydride cooling system for buildings

A temperature-driven coupled metal hydride (MH) based thermal energy storage (TES) system can allow to shave and shift the peak energy demand in buildings. The high energy density and long-term (seasonal) energy storage capability are its major advantages over other energy storage methods. The dynamic nature of the MH operation, however, requires controlled hydrogen transfer between the coupled MHs at a rate needed to meet the building's transient load. While temperature-driven MH systems are studied in the literature, their application in buildings and control are scarcely reported. Here, this paper presents a control-based dynamic modeling of the temperature-driven coupled MH-TES system for building cooling applications. The dynamic model is developed in MATLAB(R) Simulink environment, considering the thermodynamic and kinetic behaviors of the MH systems. Based on a preliminary analysis of a property database of over 337 hydrides, we select around 1600 MH pairs suitable for building cooling applications. Each of these MH pairs is studied for their performance using the dynamic model, and among all, Zr 0.76 Ti 0.24 Ni 1.16 Mn 0.63 V 0.14 Fe 0.18 -Ti 0.85 Zr 0.15 Cr 1.2 Mn 0.8 MH pair showed fast dynamics along with high coefficient of performance (COP) of 0.71. A parametric investigation is performed on this MH pair to understand the effect of operating temperatures. Finally, three proportional-integral (PI) feedback controllers are investigated to regulate the temperature, pressure and mass exchange between the coupled MH pairs. The developed PI controller is sufficiently capable of rejecting the signal noise from the hydrogen flow and internal heat exchange processes with root mean square error of 5.78 W between reference and actual cooling load.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Burn severity and vegetation type control phosphorus concentration, molecular composition, and mobilization

Shifting phosphorus (P) dynamics after wildfires can have cascading impacts from terrestrial to aquatic environments. However, it is unclear whether shifts in P composition or P concentration are responsible for changes in P dynamics post-fire. We used laboratory leaching experiments of Douglas fir forest and sagebrush shrubland chars to examine how the potential mobility of P compounds is influenced by different burn severities. Burning produced a 6.9- and 29-fold increase in particulate P mobilization but a 3.8- and 30.5-fold decrease in aqueous P released for Douglas fir forest and sagebrush shrubland, respectively. The mechanisms driving particulate- and dissolved-phase P compound mobilization were contrasting. Phosphorus compound mobilization in the particulate phase was controlled by solid char total P concentrations, while the aqueous phase was driven by solubility changes of molecular species. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) on the solid chars indicated that organic orthophosphate monoester and diester species were thermally mineralized to inorganic P moieties with burning in both vegetation types, which decreases P solubility. This coincided with the production of calcium- and magnesium-bound inorganic P compounds. With increasing burn severity there were systematic shifts in P concentration and composition – higher-severity chars mobilized P compounds in the particulate phase, although the magnitude of change was vegetation-specific. Our results indicate a post-fire transformation to both the composition of the solid charred material and how P compounds are mobilized, which may influence its environmental cycling and fate.

31P solution-state NMR↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integration of a grey-box refrigerated case model in EnergyPlus via Python plugin

Commercial buildings, in particular grocery stores (due mainly to their large refrigeration load), provide opportunities for energy cost reductions. Grocery stores could offer substantial load flexibility to the power grid through participation in demand response programs because of their usage patterns and relatively high energy intensity. This load flexibility could come from modifying the control of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, refrigeration systems, or both. Although estimation of the HVAC system’s load flexibility potential is relatively targeted in the literature, estimating load flexibility of refrigeration systems is nascent and has been a challenge, in part because of the lack of proper simulation tools that capture the dynamics in the refrigeration cases. The existing refrigerated case model within EnergyPlus, a whole building energy simulation program, assumes a constant case temperature throughout the simulation period and does not explicitly model the cycling of the compressor serving the refrigerated case. In addition, it does not encompass modeling of temperatures of the product inside the refrigerated case. This difference between modeled and actual operation can be a barrier to the development of demand control algorithm and accurate analysis of load flexibility potential. In this paper, we present a grey-box model for modeling refrigerated cases in grocery stores, which include medium temperature and low temperature. Four cases are modeled; two are low-temperature closed cases and two are medium-temperature cases with one closed and one open. Data from an experimental facility are used to train and test the models. Results demonstrate the efficacy of the grey-box models in predicting the temperatures. This model is integrated into EnergyPlus to capture the dynamic effects of case temperature on the environment and enhance the calculation of sensible and latent heat exchange with the environment (case credits). These enhancements can be leveraged more broadly to model advanced refrigeration controls such as defrost, develop and test unique algorithms that could affect refrigeration interactions with HVAC, and refine store design for any commercial building with refrigeration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atomic-scale secondary electron imaging for heterogeneous catalysis research

Surface characterization at the atomic scale is essential for understanding the catalytic properties of supported metal nanoparticles. Secondary electron (SE) imaging in scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) provides three-dimensional surface topographic information, enabling the characterization of the size, morphology, and distribution of supported nanoparticles. Furthermore, real-time observation of catalyst materials in a gaseous environment would enhance the understanding of catalyst dynamics under operational conditions. Ongoing technical developments in SE-STEM and advancements in computational methods are expected to facilitate atomic-scale surface observations and enable more quantitative and statistical analyses. This progress will not only elucidate fundamental mechanisms at the atomic level but also provide comprehensive and universal insights into catalyst performances. Here, this minireview showcases the recent advancements and research findings in surface-sensitive SE imaging in STEM for the characterization of active catalyst materials.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

When more data hurts: Optimizing data coverage while mitigating diversity-induced underfitting in an ultrafast machine-learned potential

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) are becoming an essential tool in materials modeling. However, optimizing the generation of training data used to parametrize the MLIPs remains a significant challenge. This is because MLIPs can fail when encountering local environments too different from those present in the training data. The difficulty of determining a priori the environments that will be encountered during molecular dynamics simulation necessitates diverse, high-quality training data. Here, this study investigates how training data diversity affects the performance of MLIPs using the Ultra-Fast force field (UF 3 ) to model amorphous silicon nitride. We employ expert and autonomously generated data to create the training data and fit four force field variants to subsets of the data. Our findings reveal a critical balance in training data diversity: insufficient diversity hinders generalization, while excessive diversity can exceed the MLIP's learning capacity, reducing simulation accuracy. Specifically, we found that the UF 3 variant trained on a subset of the training data, in which nitrogen-rich structures were removed, offered vastly better prediction and simulation accuracy than any other variant. By comparing these UF 3 variants, we highlight the nuanced requirements for creating accurate MLIPs, emphasizing the importance of application-specific training data to achieve optimal performance in modeling complex material behaviors.

ab initio molecular dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multiscale Cryo Electron Microscopy Reveals Interfacial Degradation and Stabilization in Battery Electrodes

Electrochemical interfaces are dynamic systems, evolving based on their local environment and reactant surface structures. The electrode-electrolyte interface in Li-ion batteries can be protective, limiting parasitic reactions with the electrolyte to passivate the surface [1]. Additionally, this interphase has an impact on the Li-ion transport through that layer based on its composition, bonding environment, and thickness. These parameters are challenging to collect and may vary depending on the electrode surface site investigated relative to its spatial position in a coin cell. This study will detail a multiscale cryogenic electron microscopy approach where millimeter-scale cross-sections through the coin cell batteries were made using a cryogenic stage within a fs-laser plasma focused ion beam (laser PFIB) with complementary energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy able to detect variations in the composition at electrode interfaces [2]. Microscale cross-sectioning and lamella sample preparation of battery electrodes was conducted at the Center for Integrated Nanotechnologies using a Ga-ion focused ion beam (FIB) with air-free and cryo-transfer [3], followed by nanoscale mapping of composition and bonding within the CEI through cryo-scanning transmission electron microscopy (cryo-STEM) electron energy loss spectroscopy [4]. This multiscale approach enabled identification of millimeter-scale features of a battery stack with visualization of degradation in electrodes such as cracks in cathode particles, gas evolution, and SEI evolution; microscale interfacial characteristics, such as heterogeneity in the SEI or barrier layer and identification of electrolyte networks to the electrode surfaces; and nanoscale measurement of the CEI thickness, mapping of transition metal bonding within the cathode particles to identify loss of active materials, and identification of beneficial electrolyte additives incorporated into the CEI structure. This multiscale approach allows for a statistical understanding of the primary mechanisms and parasitic degradation pathways that impact performance by limiting the ion transport pathways within Li+ batteries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing Quantum Information Science for Enhancing Sensors in Harsh Fossil Energy Environments

The main goals of this project are to utilize real-time quantum dynamics simulations and quantum optimal control algorithms to (1) harness near-surface nitrogen vacancy (NV) centers to detect chemical analytes in harsh fossil energy environments, and (2) design optimally constructed electromagnetic fields for initializing these near-surface NV center spins for efficient sensor performance and detectivity.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Polymer nanoparticle photocatalysts realized in non-aqueous solvents

Colloidal organic nanoparticles (oNPs) have emerged as a promising category of photocatalyst, thanks to their long-lived surface-bound charges, electronic tunability, and strong absorption in the visible spectrum. Our previous research has established a direct correlation between charge generation in oNPs and their photocatalytic activity, highlighting their effectiveness as a framework for stable, long-lived free carriers. However, oNPs have been restricted to use only in aqueous environments as a result of being synthesized via either nano-emulsion or nano-precipitation procedures. Herein, we present a method for transferring oNP photocatalysts from water into polar non-aqueous solvents while retaining their long-term colloidal stability. We observed that the polymer chains in the solvent-transferred oNPs rearrange from a predominantly H-aggregate structure in water to a combination of H- and J-aggregate characteristics in N,N-dimethylformamide, suggesting a dynamic rearrangement in response to the new solvent environment. Importantly, transient absorption and time-resolved microwave conductivity measurements confirm that the solvent-transferred oNPs maintain their ability to generate free charges at an internal heterojunction. This development opens unique opportunities for eventually leveraging light-generated, long-lived electrons and holes in synthetic redox chemistry across diverse solvent environments, a direction that will be explored in future studies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development and transferability of neural-network models for plasma-surface interactions

Plasma-surface interactions are increasingly critical to modern technologies; yet, accurate molecular dynamics simulations remain limited by the capabilities of interatomic potentials. Deep Potentials (DPs) promise to revolutionize the field by providing a systematic method for producing accurate interatomic potentials. The primary challenge of DP development is selecting a dataset, which efficiently spans the set of atomic environments one expects to encounter in the subsequent molecular dynamics simulations. The computational cost of density functional theory calculations, which are the typical basis for DP development, makes it impossible to directly verify the quality of a given DP. To address this challenge, we explore the development of a deep-learned interatomic potential, “DeepREBO,” trained to reproduce the behavior of the REBO2 empirical potential, enabling direct validation of training methodology and transferability. Using an active learning framework, we begin with a minimal dataset and iteratively expand it to train a Deep Potential-Smooth Edition model that faithfully reproduces REBO2 results for 25 eV hydrogen bombardment of diamond (001), a particularly challenging case. We show that small, carefully curated datasets can outperform large, unguided ones, with effective models requiring fewer than 15 000 snapshots. Subsequent transferability tests demonstrate that while DeepREBO generalizes well to diamond (111) surfaces, performance degrades for amorphous carbon or higher-energy impacts, highlighting the need for use-case-specific training data. We also evaluate methods to improve short-range repulsion. This study outlines best practices for training robust deep potentials and underscores the importance of dataset design for predictive plasma simulations.

Ab-initio molecular dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient Optical Control of Magnon Dynamics in van der Waals Ferromagnets

Optical control of magnons in two-dimensional (2D) materials promises new functionalities for spintronics and magnonics in atomically thin devices. Here, we report control of magnon dynamics, using laser polarization, in a ferromagnetic van der Waals (vdW) material, Fe 3.6 Co 1.4 GeTe 2 . The magnon amplitude, frequency, and lifetime are controlled and monitored by time-resolved pump-probe spectroscopy. We show substantial (over 25%) and continuous modulation of magnon dynamics as a function of incident laser polarization. Our results suggest that the modification of the effective demagnetization field and magnetic anisotropy by the pump laser pulses with different polarizations is due to anisotropic optical absorption. This implies that pump laser pulses modify the local spin environment, which enables the launch of magnons with tunable dynamics. Our first-principles calculations confirm the anisotropic optical absorption of different crystal orientations. Our findings suggest a new route for the development of opto-spintronic or opto-magnonic devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

ACDC (Automated Campbell Diagram Code) [SWR-26-042]

This application provides a web-based graphical user interface to generating Campbell Diagrams and visualizing mode shapes for OpenFAST turbine models. Determining the aeroelastic stability and dynamic characteristics of wind turbines is a critical step in turbine design and analysis. Historically, extracting natural frequencies and mode shapes from OpenFAST—the industry-standard whole-turbine simulation code—has been a fragmented and tedious process. It required manual model configuration, command-line linearization execution, and complex post-processing via proprietary scripts to handle rotating-frame dynamics. To address these workflow bottlenecks, we present the Automated Campbell Diagram Code (ACDC), an open-source graphical software tool developed by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) under the DOE-funded Distributed Wind Aeroelastic Modeling (dWAM) project. ACDC streamlines the end-to-end linearization and stability analysis workflow into a single, intuitive cross-platform application. The software guides users through OpenFAST model configuration, definition of operating points, and the automated execution of steady-state trim and linearization simulations. Under the hood, ACDC automates the complex mathematical post-processing steps required for rotating systems, including Multi-Blade Coordinate (MBC) transformations, eigenanalysis, and advanced modal tracking utilizing the Modal Assurance Criterion (MAC) and spectral clustering. Finally, ACDC processes these results to automatically generate Campbell diagrams and features a robust 3D visualization engine to animate full-system mode shapes. By eliminating the reliance on external post-processing environments and manual data manipulation, ACDC significantly accelerates dynamic analysis and lowers the barrier to entry for wind energy researchers and engineers.

Summerville, Brent [National Laboratory of the Roc↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mapping structures and dynamics with frequency-correlated diffusion exchange

Understanding molecular motion in diffusion-driven complex environments is critical for designing sustainable materials and improving chemical processes. Here, we introduce a multidimensional nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) method that captures how molecular populations exchange across different dynamic regimes. By extending the modulated gradient spin-echo technique to include frequency-frequency correlations, our approach reveals diffusion pathways that are otherwise obscured in heterogeneous systems. Implemented on a unilateral NMR magnet, the method eliminates gradient pulsing constraints and accesses dynamics in the kilohertz regime. We apply this technique to swelling and acid-catalyzed deconstruction of cross-linked and linear polymers to observe how structural heterogeneity evolves over time. By linking molecular motion to topology and chemical state, we extract physical metrics such as fractal surface dimensionality and reaction wavefront velocity, properties inaccessible with standard diffusion measurements. This work expands the capabilities of NMR for probing soft matter, with implications for polymer recycling and materials design.

Fricke, Sophia N. [University of California, Berke↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intraspecific Reaction Norm Variation Controls the Eco-Evolutionary Consequences of Environmental Change

As environmental change accelerates globally, understanding concurrent organismal, species, and community responses is increasingly vital. Here, we examine these collective responses by incorporating genotype-specific thermal reaction norms into an eco-evolutionary predator-prey model, allowing us to track simultaneous phenotypic, ecological, and evolutionary responses to environmental change within ecological communities. We show that the reaction norms expressed by genotypes within a population determine how a community switches between different eco-evolutionary outcomes with changes in temperature. We identify how different components of phenotypic variation in thermal reaction norms—environmental (E), additive environmental and genetic (E + G), and gene-by-environment interactions (G × E)—influence eco-evolutionary dynamics and outcomes as temperature changes. Furthermore, our findings underscore how complex eco-evolutionary responses to environmental change ultimately emerge from variation in reaction norms among genotypes, offering new mechanistic insights into environmental impacts on adaptation, the maintenance of phenotypic and genetic variation, and ecological stability, which is crucial for understanding and predicting eco-evolutionary effects of rapid environmental change in the future.

Eco-evolutionary↗
DOE OSTI2025

High Energy Density Physics of Inertial Confinement Fusion Ablator Materials

The historic December 5, 2022 experiment at Lawrence Livermore National Lab’s (LLNL) National Ignition Facility (NIF) reached fusion energy ignition for the first time. This is the most important scientific breakthrough of the 21st century paves the way to future clean inertial fusion energy (IFE). The diamond (high density carbon (HDC)) ablator material used in this experiment displays detrimental effects due to the development of hydrodynamic instabilities at the diamond/fuel interface under shock compression. New alternatives to diamond ablators are required to step up the energy yield in ICF experiments. The unique combination of mechanical strength (approaching that of diamond), the ability to accommodate high-Z dopants (in contrast to diamond), and the tunability of the properties (through synthesis material with varying sp 3 content) make amorphous carbon (a-C) a promising material for next-generation IFE ablative capsules. However, despite its critical importance to the IFE program, the behavior of a-C carbon at extreme temperatures and pressures remains largely unexplored. The primary goals of this project were to perform groundbreaking dynamic compression experiments and predictive simulations to uncover the fundamental high-energy-density physics of amorphous carbon. Our goals were (1) to uncover the metastability range of amorphous carbon and probe phase transitions to diamond or metastable supercooled liquid carbon; (2) to acquire high-quality equation of state (EOS) data and develop an experimentally validated EOS from machine-learning MD simulations of the complex states of carbon; and (3) to uncover the complex behavior of carbon liquid in both thermodynamically stable and metastable supercooled states by accessing large areas of carbon phase diagram with amorphous samples with variable sp 3 content. Our proposed experimental program included measurements of equation of state and diffraction measurements using the Omega EP laser at the Laboratory of Laser Energetics at the University of Rochester. The theoretical/simulation program involved the development of machine-learning models of the complex response of amorphous carbon under dynamic compression by performing molecular dynamics simulations at experimental time and length scales using leadership class DOE supercomputers. Simulations guided experiments to observe predicted phenomena and acquire critical experimental data in specific pressure-temperature domains to validate theoretical models. This research delivered fundamental properties of novel amorphous carbon IFE ablator material, including phase diagram and EOS. These results will aid in IFE target design and implosion experiments. A unique combination of predictive simulations and dynamic and static experiments provided a highly inspirational intellectual environment for graduate students and postdocs involved in this project.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Operando XPS for Plasma Process Monitoring: A Case Study on the Hydrogenation of Copper Oxide Confined under h-BN

Here, we demonstrate that ambient pressure x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (APXPS) can be used for in situ studies of dynamic changes in surface chemistry in a plasma environment. This opens a new and vast application space for XPS and greatly complements modern spectroscopy techniques to probe plasma-solid/liquid interactions relevant to process monitoring in the semiconductor industry, bio-medical plasma applications and plasma remediation technologies. Hexagonal boron nitride (h-BN) grown on Cu was used in this study as a well-defined model system for plasma process monitoring and because of its unique chemical, optical and electrical properties that make it a prospective material for advanced electronics. To better understand the stability and surface chemistry of h-BN during plasma assisted processing, we track in real time the plasma-induced chemical state changes of B, N and the underlying Cu substrate using APXPS equipped with an AC discharge plasma source operating at 13 Pa. Residual gas analysis (RGA) mass-spectra were concurrently collected during plasma-XPS to track reaction products formed during plasma exposure. A clear reduction of Cu x O is seen, while an h-BN layer remains intact, suggesting hydrogen radical (H • ) species can attack the exposed and h-BN covered Cu oxide patches and partially reduce the underlying substrate without significantly damaging the overlaying h-BN, which is of practical importance for development of h-BN encapsulated devices and interfaces. In addition to demonstration of plasma-XPS capabilities we discuss the observed challenges (e.g., parasitic plasma-chamber walls reactions and charging effects) and propose potential solutions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Breakdown of the Static Dielectric Screening Approximation of Coulomb Interactions in Atomically Thin Semiconductors

Coulomb interactions in atomically thin materials are remarkably sensitive to variations in the dielectric screening of the environment, which can be used to control exotic quantum many-body phases and engineer exciton potential landscapes. For decades, static or frequency-independent approximations of the dielectric response, where increased dielectric screening is predicted to cause an energy redshift of the exciton resonance, have been sufficient. These approximations were first applied to quantum wells and were more recently extended with initial success to layered transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs). Here, we use charge-tunable exciton resonances to investigate screening effects in TMD monolayers embedded in materials with low-frequency dielectric constants ranging from 4 to more than 1000, a range of 2 orders of magnitude larger than in previous studies. In contrast to the redshift predicted by static models, we observe a blueshift of the exciton resonance exceeding 30 meV in higher dielectric constant environments. We explain our observations by introducing a dynamical screening model based on a solution to the Bethe-Salpeter equation (BSE). When dynamical effects are strong, we find that the exciton binding energy remains mostly controlled by the low-frequency dielectric response, while the exciton self-energy is dominated by the high-frequency one. Our results supplant the understanding of screening in layered materials and their heterostructures, introduce a knob to tune selected many-body effects, and reshape the framework for detecting and controlling correlated quantum many-body states and designing optoelectronic and quantum devices.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling prebiotic chemistries with quantum accuracy at classical costs

Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations using classical force-fields are commonly employed in numerous scientific investigations. However, many natural processes involve bond breaking and quantum forces. This complexity is compounded by the presence of multiple competing length and timescales. For example, accurately modeling the thermodynamics and dynamics of a chemical reaction requires accounting for the concerted movements of numerous solvent molecules and ions with their own fast or slow timescales. While widely used static Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations at 0 temperature can be beneficial for such investigations, they do not account for dynamics, and lack precision in describing the molecular environments. They particularly fail at correct, rigorous treatments of finite-temperature fluctuations, and thus generalization to experimentally relevant conditions. In PNAS Benayad et al develop a scalable, generalizable approach for designing Neural Network Potentials (NNPs) that can handle chemical reactivity in solvated systems with quantum accuracy at classical costs. Specifically, they study phosphoester bond formation and rupture, which is fundamentally relevant to the Phosphorus-Oxygen bond formation central to life, and especially for the RNA world hypothesis. The framework developed here has the potential to generalize to different chemical reactions of energy and biological relevance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 1: optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations

Stratospheric aerosols, most of which originate from explosive volcanic sulfur emissions into the stratosphere, are a key natural driver of climate variability. They are thus a forcing provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Forcings Task Team to climate modelling groups participating in phase 7 of CMIP. For the historical period, we provide two datasets covering 1750–2023: (i) a volcanic upper tropospheric-stratospheric sulfur emission dataset, documented in a companion paper; and (ii) a stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical property dataset, documented in this paper. For the satellite era (from 1979 onwards), stratospheric aerosol optical properties are derived from the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) dataset. For the pre-satellite era (1750–1978), optical properties are derived from our volcanic SO 2 emission dataset using a new version of the reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model Easy Volcanic Aerosol (Height) (EVA_H v2). A background, non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1998–2001 period with a trend over 1850–1978 accounting for increasing anthropogenic aerosols. A monthly stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1850–2021 average for both pre-industrial and scenario (future) simulations, with a 9-year ramp over 2022–2030 for scenario simulations to ensure a smooth transition from the historical period. CMIP7 simulations should use version 2.2.1 of our pre-industrial and historical datasets, and version 2.2.2 of our scenario dataset. Our methodology to produce historical aerosol optical properties significantly differs from CMIP6 for the pre-satellite era, and the resulting forcings in turn largely differ. In particular, the CMIP6 dataset was mostly based on the sparse and uncertain pyrheliometer record, which resulted in strongly underrepresented emissions from small-to-moderate magnitude eruptions. The resulting bias is addressed in CMIP7, which is entirely emission-derived in the pre-satellite era and uses more recent ice-core-based volcanic sulfur emission inventories than CMIP6. Our approach results in an overall larger volcanic aerosol forcing for CMIP7, with the 1850–2014 mean mid-visible global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) in CMIP7 (0.0138) being 29 % higher than in CMIP6 (0.0107). The pre-industrial mean of the same variable is 26 % higher in CMIP7 (0.0135, derived from the historical 1850–2021) than CMIP6 (0.0107, derived from the historical 1850–2014 mean). Using a reduced-complexity climate model, we simulate a global mean surface temperature that is 0.07 °C colder for 1850–1900 when using the CMIP7 dataset instead of CMIP6, whereas 2000–2014 is 0.03 °C warmer in CMIP7. Our dataset also exhibits lower forcing for 1960–1980, resulting in temperatures 0.06 °C warmer when averaged over 1960–1990, a period for which CMIP6 climate models exhibit a cold bias. Given the large uncertainties characterizing the dataset, in particular for the pre-satellite era, we advise against treating the CMIP7 or CMIP6 dataset as uniquely superior for any specific year and highlight the need for further evaluation. We conclude the study by discussing sources of uncertainty for the dataset, future research avenues to improve it, as well as requirements to operationalize the production of the dataset, i.e. extend it and update it on an annual basis instead of every 5–7 years following CMIP cycles.

Aubry, Thomas J. [Univ. of Exeter, Devon (United K↗