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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Elevated levels of radiocarbon in methane dissolved in seawater reveal likely local contamination from nuclear powered vessels

Measurements of the natural radiocarbon content of methane ( 14 C-CH 4 ) dissolved in seawater and freshwater have been used to investigate sources and dynamics of methane. However, during investigations along the Atlantic, Pacific, and Arctic Ocean Margins of the United States, as well as in the North American Great Lakes, some samples revealed highly elevated 14 C-CH 4 values, as much as 4–5 times above contemporary atmospheric 14 C-CH 4 levels. Natural production of the 14 CH 4 isotopologue is too low to cause these observations nor can it explain the variations in location and depth. Numerous lab and field validation tests and blanks, as well as the relatively small number of samples that display these elevated values, all suggest that these signals are not derived from an unknown procedural issue. Here, in this work, we suggest that the byproducts of nuclear power generation include localized discharges of the 14 CH4 isotopologue into marine and aquatic environments, severely altering the measured 14 C-CH 4 isotopic signals. Since several of our sample sites are distant from on-land nuclear powerplants, we conduct further calculations concluding that the most elevated anomalies in 14 C-CH 4 likely originate with discharge from nuclear-powered vessels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Response of the Current Climate to Land‐Ocean Contrasts in Parameterized Cumulus Entrainment

Abstract Cumulus entrainment substantially regulates the earth's climate but remains poorly constrained in global climate models. Recent studies have shown that cumulus bulk entrainment (or dilution) is particularly sensitive to continentality, with the entrainment rate in simulated maritime cumuli nearly double that of continental cumuli. This study examines the impacts of such land–ocean entrainment contrasts on the current climate using 21‐year simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's High‐Resolution Atmospheric Model (HIRAM). In response to a 25% reduction in the HIRAM entrainment parameter c 0 over land, precipitation over tropical land regions increases by up to 40%. Along with directly facilitating enhanced convective precipitation, this c 0 reduction induces an increase in soil moisture, which may contribute to a further enhancement of convective precipitation over land. A 25% c 0 reduction over the oceans leads to more widespread modifications of convection patterns, with the strongest signal in the tropical Pacific. Deep convection shifts upstream (eastward) there, inducing enhanced large‐scale ascent over the central Pacific with compensating subsidence and reduced humidity and precipitation over the western Pacific (WP). Land–ocean variations in c 0 project onto the Pacific Walker circulation, with the 25% land reduction strengthening it by 4% and the 25% ocean reduction weakening it by 14%. These changes are driven by variations in convective and large‐scale stratiform heating over the Pacific. While reduced c 0 over land enhances diabatic heating in the Maritime Continent to strengthen the Walker circulation, reduced c 0 over the oceans decreases diabatic heating in the WP to weaken the Walker circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Perturbative Solution for Nonlinear Stratified Upwelling over a Frictional Slope

Abstract A perturbative solution of simplified primitive equations for nonlinear weakly stratified upwelling over a frictional slope is found that resolves the vertical structure of velocity fields and can satisfy Ertel’s potential vorticity conservation in the stratified inviscid interior. The solution uses assumptions consistent with the model proposed by Lentz and Chapman, including a steady-state, constant cross-shore density gradient, no alongshore gradients, laterally inviscid, and consideration of cross-shore advection of alongshore momentum. The solution resolves the vertical structure of velocity fields (including subsurface maxima of compensational flow, not resolved by Lentz and Chapman) and can satisfy Ertel’s potential vorticity conservation in the stratified inviscid interior. The dynamics are similar to Lentz and Chapman; bottom stress balances alongshore wind stress in a homogeneous density ocean and is replaced by nonlinear cross-shore transport of alongshore momentum as the Burger number (S=αN/f, whereα,N, andfare the bottom slope, buoyancy frequency, Coriolis frequency, respectively) increases. When the solution uses the empirical relation between cross-shore and vertical density gradients proposed by Lentz and Chapman, vorticity conservation is not satisfied and the nonlinear momentum transport estimated by the solution linearly increases withS, asymptotically matching Lentz and Chapman forS< 1. When the solution conserves interior potential vorticity, the momentum transport is proportional toS 2 forS< 1 and is in better agreement with numerical simulations.

Oceanography↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessment of the sea surface temperature diurnal cycle in CNRM-CM6-1 based on its 1D coupled configuration

A single-column version of the CNRM-CM6-1 global climate model has been developed to ease development and validation of the boundary layer physics and air–sea coupling in a simplified environment. This framework is then used to assess the ability of the coupled model to represent the sea surface temperature (SST) diurnal cycle. To this aim, the atmospheric–ocean single-column model (AOSCM), called CNRM-CM6-1D, is implemented in a case study derived from the CINDY2011/DYNAMO campaign over the Indian Ocean, where large diurnal SST variabilities have been well documented. Comparing the AOSCM and its uncoupled components (atmospheric SCM and oceanic SCM, called OSCM) highlights the fact that the impact of coupling in the atmosphere results from both the possibility to take into account the diurnal variability of SST, which is not usually available in forcing products, and the change in mean state SST as simulated by the OSCM, with the ocean mean state not being heavily impacted by the coupling. This suggests that coupling feedbacks in the 3D model do not arise from the coupling of ocean and atmosphere vertical column physics but are more due to the large-scale dynamics resolved by the 3D model. Additionally, a sub-daily coupling frequency is needed to represent the SST diurnal variability, but the choice of the coupling time step between 15 min and 3 h does not impact the diurnal temperature range simulated much. The main drawback of a 3 h coupling is delaying the SST diurnal cycle by 5 h in asynchronous coupled models. Overall, the diurnal SST variability is reasonably well represented in CNRM-CM6-1 with a 1 h coupling time step and the upper-ocean model resolution of 1 m. This framework is shown to be a very valuable tool to develop and validate the boundary layer physics and the coupling interface. It highlights the interest to develop other atmosphere–ocean coupling case studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observations of Subduction, Downward Heat Flux and Dense Filament Collapse in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Submesoscale processes are important contributors to the global heat budget and generally support upward heat transport through restratification. However, in salinity‐stratified regions, such as the northern Gulf of Mexico with its influx of freshwater from the Mississippi‐Atchafalaya river system, temperature can act like a passive tracer and submesoscale processes can contribute to downward heat transport. Oceanic heat content is a factor in many environmental risks the region faces, for example, hurricane intensification, and marine heatwaves. During the 2022 field campaign of the Submesoscales Under Near‐Resonant Inertial Shear Experiment, a sampling plan was developed to study such submesoscale processes in high resolution. Over 31 hr, four assets (two research ships and two remotely controlled boats) drove in parallel across a dense filament, capturing its evolution in time and space. The observations show that surface waters, warmed by daytime solar radiation, were subducted and that the associated overturning circulation transported heat below the surface layer where it was later irreversibly mixed away. The estimated downward heat flux was as strong as the concurrent net air‐sea heat flux into the ocean. The filament was then observed to rapidly collapse which we attribute to boundary layer turbulence and the breakdown of geostrophic balance. The collapsing fronts display behaviors indicative of gravity currents. These observations highlight how in salinity‐stratified regions, frontal dynamics can be associated with downward heat flux and how the submesoscale can play an important role in the oceanic heat budget.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Microbial Community Structure and Ecological Networks during Simulation of Diatom Sinking

Microbial-mediated utilization of particulate organic matter (POM) during its downward transport from the surface to the deep ocean constitutes a critical component of the global ocean carbon cycle. However, it remains unclear as to how high hydrostatic pressure (HHP) and low temperature (LT) with the sinking particles affects community structure and network interactions of the particle-attached microorganisms (PAM) and those free-living microorganisms (FLM) in the surrounding water. In this study, we investigated microbial succession and network interactions in experiments simulating POM sinking in the ocean. Diatom-derived 13C- and 12C-labeled POM were used to incubate surface water microbial communities from the East China Sea (ECS) under pressure (temperature) of 0.1 (25 °C), 20 (4 °C), and 40 (4 °C) MPa (megapascal). Our results show that the diversity and species richness of the PAM and FLM communities decreased significantly with HHP and LT. Microbial community analysis indicated an increase in the relative abundance of Bacteroidetes at high pressure (40 MPa), mostly at the expense of Gammaproteobacteria, Alphaproteobacteria, and Gracilibacteria at atmospheric pressure. Hydrostatic pressure and temperature affected lifestyle preferences between particle-attached (PA) and free-living (FL) microbes. Ecological network analysis showed that HHP and LT enhanced microbial network interactions and resulted in higher vulnerability to networks of the PAM communities and more resilience of those of the FLM communities. Most interestingly, the PAM communities occupied most of the module hubs of the networks, whereas the FLM communities mainly served as connectors of the modules, suggesting their different ecological roles of the two groups of microbes. These results provided novel insights into how HHP and LT affected microbial community dynamics, ecological networks during POM sinking, and the implications for carbon cycling in the ocean.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of ESM Readiness Level for Exascale HPC

Advancement of Earth System Models (ESMs) is becoming increasingly challenging due to a confluence of factors including increasing model complexity – to more fully represent the earth system, increasing spatial resolution - to achieve higher accuracy by resolving fine-scale dynamical to physical, biological, and chemical processes and their interaction, increasing ensemble size - to more accurately represent predictive uncertainty, and increased computing requirements – to enable more accurate and timely weather predictions and climate projections for societal benefit. The belief by many that computing will take care of itself is no longer valid given the disruptive changes in HPC that are driving up the cost of computing, increasing the difficulty of using emerging HPC effectively, and exposing limits in parallelism, portability and scalability of the ESM applications themselves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Efficiency of Water Vapor on Top‐of‐Atmosphere Radiation

Earth's climate sensitivity is greatly affected by the compensation between temperature feedback and water vapor (WV) feedback. Using abrupt 4xCO 2 experiments, we show that the global-mean WV feedback is nearly a linear function of the temperature feedback, the slope of which is explained by the longwave radiative efficiency of WV (ϵ). Although ϵ remains constant across models in the global mean, it exhibits substantial spatial variations and is particularly weak in Antarctica, where near-surface inversions decouple the surface from the free troposphere. We introduce a surface–free troposphere temperature difference (SFTD) metric, showing that positive SFTD (e.g., high lifting condensation level) amplifies ϵ, while negative SFTD (e.g., strong surface inversion) suppresses it. These findings provide a clear explanation of how local climate conditions modulate the radiative compensation between temperature and WV feedbacks.

climate feedback↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying Uncertainties in Earth's Energy Budget by Cloud Feedback and Ocean Heat Uptake Using E3SM-Slab Ocean Configurations

In order to improve predictive skills of Earth System Model, we need to better understand processes that control Earth's energy budget via ocean, atmosphere, and cryosphere interactions. Simulated energy budget in comprehensive Earth System Models shows a wide range, leading to large uncertainties in predicting Earth system dynamic and thermodynamic variations and associated social-economic impacts. Uncertainties in cloud feedbacks have been identified as the main cause of the large inter-model spread, but oceanic adjustments, especially those associated with ocean heat uptake (OHU) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), also play an important role. In this proposed work, we focus on understanding the individual and combined roles of cloud feedbacks and ocean adjustments on modulating Earth's energy balance. This research is motivated by our overarching hypothesis that oceanic adjustment is a key source of uncertainty, in addition to those associated with the cloud feedbacks; further, the ocean adjustment and associated OHU work through the cloud feedbacks to modulate Earth's energy budget and temperature variations. We test this hypothesis using numerical experiments where we systematically enable and disable cloud feedbacks in conjunction with perturbations to OHU.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Planet Microbe: a platform for marine microbiology to discover and analyze interconnected ‘omics and environmental data

In recent years, large-scale oceanic sequencing efforts have provided a deeper understanding of marine microbial communities and their dynamics. These research endeavors require the acquisition of complex and varied datasets through large, interdisciplinary and collaborative efforts. However, no unifying framework currently exists for the marine science community to integrate sequencing data with physical, geological, and geochemical datasets. Planet Microbe is a web-based platform that enables data discovery from curated historical and on-going oceanographic sequencing efforts. In Planet Microbe, each ‘omics sample is linked with other biological and physiochemical measurements collected for the same water samples or during the same sample collection event, to provide a broader environmental context. This work highlights the need for curated aggregation efforts that can enable new insights into high-quality metagenomic datasets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Local limits of detection for anthropogenic aerosol-cloud interactions

Ship tracks are quasi-linear cloud patterns produced from the interaction of ship emissions with low boundary layer clouds. They are visible throughout the diurnal cycle in satellite images from space-borne assets like the Advanced Baseline Imagers (ABI) aboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-R). However, complex atmospheric dynamics often make it difficult to identify and characterize the formation and evolution of tracks. Ship tracks have the potential to increase a cloud's albedo and reduce the impact of global warming. Thus, it is important to study these patterns to better understand the complex atmospheric interactions between aerosols and clouds to improve our climate models, and examine the efficacy of climate interventions, such as marine cloud brightening. Over the course of this 3-year project, we have developed novel data-driven techniques that advance our ability to assess the effects of ship emissions on marine environments and the risks of future marine cloud brightening efforts. The three main innovative technical contributions we will document here are a method to track aerosol injections using optical flow, a stochastic simulation model for track formations and an automated detection algorithm for efficient identification of ship tracks in large datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mean Flow from Phase Averages in the 2D Boussinesq Equations

The atmosphere and ocean are described by highly oscillatory PDEs that challenge both our understanding of their dynamics and their numerical approximation. This paper presents a preliminary numerical study of one type of phase averaging applied to mean flows in the 2D Boussinesq equations that also has application to numerical methods. The phase averaging technique, well-known in dynamical systems theory, relies on a mapping using the exponential operator, and then an averaging over the phase. The exponential operator has connections to the Craya–Herring basis pioneered by Jack Herring to study the fluid dynamics of oscillatory, nonlinear fluid dynamics. In this paper, we perform numerical experiments to study the effect of this averaging technique on the time evolution of the solution. We explore its potential as a definition for mean flows. We also show that, as expected from theory, the phase-averaging method can reduce the magnitude of the time rate of change in the PDEs, making them potentially suitable for time stepping methods.

Wingate, Beth A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Computational Fluid Dynamics Using the Adaptive Wavelet-Collocation Method

Advancements to the adaptive wavelet-collocation method over the last decade have opened up a number of new possible areas for active research. Volume penalization techniques allow complex immersed boundary conditions to be used with high efficiency for both internal and external flows. Anisotropic methods make it possible to use body-fitted meshes while still taking advantage of the dynamic adaptability properties wavelet-based methods provide. The parallelization of the approach has made it possible to perform large high-resolution simulations of detonation initiation and fluid instabilities to uncover new physical insights that would otherwise be difficult to discover. Other developments include space-time adaptive methods and nonreflecting boundary conditions. This article summarizes the work performed using the adaptive wavelet-collocation method developed by Vasilyev and coworkers over the past decade.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning prediction of connectivity, biodiversity and resilience in the Coral Triangle

Abstract Even optimistic climate scenarios predict catastrophic consequences for coral reef ecosystems by 2100. Understanding how reef connectivity, biodiversity and resilience are shaped by climate variability would improve chances to establish sustainable management practices. In this regard, ecoregionalization and connectivity are pivotal to designating effective marine protected areas. Here, machine learning algorithms and physical intuition are applied to sea surface temperature anomaly data over a twenty-four-year period to extract ecoregions and assess connectivity and bleaching recovery potential in the Coral Triangle and surrounding oceans. Furthermore, the impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on biodiversity and resilience are quantified. We find that resilience is higher for reefs north of the Equator and that the extraordinary biodiversity of the Coral Triangle is dynamic in time and space, and benefits from ENSO. The large-scale exchange of genetic material is enhanced between the Indian Ocean and the Coral Triangle during La Niña years, and between the Coral Triangle and the central Pacific in neutral conditions. Through machine learning the outstanding biodiversity of the Coral Triangle, its evolution and the increase of species richness are contextualized through geological times, while offering new hope for monitoring its future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Steric Sea Level Rise and Relationships with Model Drift and Water Mass Representation in GFDL CM4 and ESM4

Abstract Density-driven steric seawater changes are a leading-order contributor to global mean sea level rise. However, intermodel differences in the magnitude and spatial patterns of steric sea level rise exist at regional scales and often emerge during the spinup and preindustrial control integrations of climate models. Steric sea level results from an eddy-permitting climate model, GFDL CM4, are compared with a lower-resolution counterpart, GFDL-ESM4. The results from both models are examined through basin-scale heat budgets and watermass analysis, and we compare the patterns of ocean heat uptake, redistribution, and sea level differ in ocean-only [i.e., Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)] and coupled climate configurations. After correcting for model drift, both GFDL CM4 and GFDL-ESM4 simulate nearly equivalent ocean heat content change and global sea level rise during the historical period. However, the GFDL CM4 model exhibits as much as a 40% increase in surface ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean and subsequent increases in horizontal export to other ocean basins after bias correction. The results suggest regional differences in the processes governing Southern Ocean heat export, such as the formation of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW), and gyre transport between the two models, and that sea level changes in these models cannot be fully bias-corrected. Since the process-level differences between the two models are evident in the preindustrial control simulations of both models, these results suggest that the control simulations are important for identifying and correcting sea level–related model biases.

Krasting, John P. [a NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dy↗
DOE OSTI2024

The impact of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation on Southern Ocean clouds assessed with single-column modeling and instrument simulators

Abstract. Supercooled liquid clouds are common at higher latitudes (especially over the Southern Ocean) and are critical for constraining climate projections. We take advantage of the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) to perform an analysis of observed and simulated cloud processes over the Southern Ocean in a region and season dominated by supercooled liquid clouds. Using a single-column version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS), we compare two different cloud microphysical schemes to ground-based observations of cloud, precipitation, and radiation over a 2.5-month period (1 January–17 March 2017). Both schemes are able to reproduce aspects of the cloud and radiation observations during MICRE to within the uncertainty of the data when the thermodynamic profile is prescribed with relaxation. There are differences in water mass and representation of reflectivity between the schemes. A sensitivity study of the cloud microphysics schemes, one a bulk one-moment scheme and the other a two-moment scheme with prediction of mass and number, indicates that several key processes create differences between the schemes. Surface radiative fluxes and total water path are highly sensitive to the formation and fall speed of precipitation. The prediction of hydrometeor number with the two-moment scheme yields a better comparison with observed reflectivity and radiative fluxes, despite predicting higher liquid water contents than observed. With the two-moment scheme, we are also able to test the sensitivity of the results to the input of liquid cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN). The cloud properties and resulting radiative effects are found to be sensitive to the CCN and IN concentrations. More CCN and IN increase liquid and ice water paths, respectively. Thus, both the dynamic environment and aerosols, integrated through the cloud microphysics, are important for properly representing Southern Ocean cloud radiative effects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

MITgcm-AD v2: Open source tangent linear and adjoint modeling framework for the oceans and atmosphere enabled by the Automatic Differentiation tool Tapenade

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm) is widely used by the climate science community to simulate planetary atmosphere and ocean circulations. A defining feature of the MITgcm is that it has been developed to be compatible with an algorithmic differentiation (AD) tool, TAF, enabling the generation of tangent-linear and adjoint models. These provide gradient information which enables dynamics-based sensitivity and attribution studies, state and parameter estimation, and rigorous uncertainty quantification. Importantly, gradient information is essential for computing comprehensive sensitivities and performing efficient large-scale data assimilation, ensuring that observations collected from satellites and in-situ measuring instruments can be effectively used to optimize a large uncertain control space. As a result, the MITgcm forms the dynamical core of a key data assimilation product employed by the physical oceanography research community: Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) state estimate. Although MITgcm and ECCO are used extensively within the research community, the AD tool TAF is proprietary and hence inaccessible to a large proportion of these users. The new version 2 (MITgcm-AD v2) framework introduced here is based on the source-to-source AD tool Tapenade, which has recently been open-sourced. Another feature of Tapenade is that it stores required variables by default (instead of recomputing them) which simplifies the implementation of efficient, AD-compatible code. The framework has been integrated with the MITgcm model’s main branch and is now freely available.

Adjoints↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 1: optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations

Stratospheric aerosols, most of which originate from explosive volcanic sulfur emissions into the stratosphere, are a key natural driver of climate variability. They are thus a forcing provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Forcings Task Team to climate modelling groups participating in phase 7 of CMIP. For the historical period, we provide two datasets covering 1750–2023: (i) a volcanic upper tropospheric-stratospheric sulfur emission dataset, documented in a companion paper; and (ii) a stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical property dataset, documented in this paper. For the satellite era (from 1979 onwards), stratospheric aerosol optical properties are derived from the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) dataset. For the pre-satellite era (1750–1978), optical properties are derived from our volcanic SO 2 emission dataset using a new version of the reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model Easy Volcanic Aerosol (Height) (EVA_H v2). A background, non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1998–2001 period with a trend over 1850–1978 accounting for increasing anthropogenic aerosols. A monthly stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1850–2021 average for both pre-industrial and scenario (future) simulations, with a 9-year ramp over 2022–2030 for scenario simulations to ensure a smooth transition from the historical period. CMIP7 simulations should use version 2.2.1 of our pre-industrial and historical datasets, and version 2.2.2 of our scenario dataset. Our methodology to produce historical aerosol optical properties significantly differs from CMIP6 for the pre-satellite era, and the resulting forcings in turn largely differ. In particular, the CMIP6 dataset was mostly based on the sparse and uncertain pyrheliometer record, which resulted in strongly underrepresented emissions from small-to-moderate magnitude eruptions. The resulting bias is addressed in CMIP7, which is entirely emission-derived in the pre-satellite era and uses more recent ice-core-based volcanic sulfur emission inventories than CMIP6. Our approach results in an overall larger volcanic aerosol forcing for CMIP7, with the 1850–2014 mean mid-visible global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) in CMIP7 (0.0138) being 29 % higher than in CMIP6 (0.0107). The pre-industrial mean of the same variable is 26 % higher in CMIP7 (0.0135, derived from the historical 1850–2021) than CMIP6 (0.0107, derived from the historical 1850–2014 mean). Using a reduced-complexity climate model, we simulate a global mean surface temperature that is 0.07 °C colder for 1850–1900 when using the CMIP7 dataset instead of CMIP6, whereas 2000–2014 is 0.03 °C warmer in CMIP7. Our dataset also exhibits lower forcing for 1960–1980, resulting in temperatures 0.06 °C warmer when averaged over 1960–1990, a period for which CMIP6 climate models exhibit a cold bias. Given the large uncertainties characterizing the dataset, in particular for the pre-satellite era, we advise against treating the CMIP7 or CMIP6 dataset as uniquely superior for any specific year and highlight the need for further evaluation. We conclude the study by discussing sources of uncertainty for the dataset, future research avenues to improve it, as well as requirements to operationalize the production of the dataset, i.e. extend it and update it on an annual basis instead of every 5–7 years following CMIP cycles.

Aubry, Thomas J. [Univ. of Exeter, Devon (United K↗