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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11

A safe reinforcement learning algorithm for supervisory control of power plants

Traditional control theory-based methods require tailored engineering for each system and constant fine-tuning. In power plant control, one often needs to obtain a precise representation of the system dynamics and carefully design the control scheme accordingly. Model-free Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a promising solution for control tasks due to its ability to learn from trial-and-error interactions with the environment. It eliminates the need for explicitly modeling the environment’s dynamics, which is potentially inaccurate. However, the direct imposition of state constraints in power plant control raises challenges for standard RL methods. To address this, we propose a chance-constrained RL algorithm based on Proximal Policy Optimization for supervisory control. Our method employs Lagrangian relaxation to convert the constrained optimization problem into an unconstrained objective, where trainable Lagrange multipliers enforce the state constraints. In conclusion, our approach achieves the smallest distance of violation and violation rate in a load-follow maneuver for an advanced Nuclear Power Plant design.

constrained optimization↗

On the effectiveness of neural operators at zero-shot weather downscaling

Machine-learning (ML) methods have shown great potential for weather downscaling. These data-driven approaches provide a more efficient alternative for producing high-resolution weather datasets and forecasts compared to physics-based numerical simulations. Neural operators, which learn solution operators for a family of partial differential equations, have shown great success in scientific ML applications involving physics-driven datasets. Neural operators are grid-resolution-invariant and are often evaluated on higher grid resolutions than they are trained on, i.e., zero-shot super-resolution. Given their promising zero-shot super-resolution performance on dynamical systems emulation, we present a critical investigation of their zero-shot weather downscaling capabilities, which is when models are tasked with producing high-resolution outputs using higher upsampling factors than are seen during training. To this end, we create two realistic downscaling experiments with challenging upsampling factors (e.g., 8x and 15x) across data from different simulations: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) and the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit. While neural operator-based downscaling models perform better than interpolation and a simple convolutional baseline, we show the surprising performance of an approach that combines a powerful transformer-based model with parameter-free interpolation at zero-shot weather downscaling. We find that this Swin-Transformer-based approach mostly outperforms models with neural operator layers in terms of average error metrics, whereas an Enhanced Super-Resolution Generative Adversarial Network-based approach is better than most models in terms of capturing the physics of the ground truth data. We suggest their use in future work as strong baselines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A New Framework for the Attribution of Air‐Sea CO 2 Exchange

Abstract The air‐sea transfer of carbon dioxide can be viewed as a dynamic system through which atmospheric and oceanic processes push surface waters away from thermodynamic equilibrium, while diffusive gas transfer pulls them back toward local equilibrium. These push/pull processes drive significant sub‐seasonal, seasonal, and interannual variability in air‐sea carbon fluxes, the quantification of which is critical both for diagnosing the ocean response to fossil fuel emissions and for attempts to mitigate anthropogenic climate disruption through intentional modification of surface ocean biogeochemistry. In this study, we present a new approach for attributing air‐sea carbon fluxes to specific mechanisms. The new framework is first applied to a two‐box ocean nutrient and carbon cycle model as an illustrative example. Next, outputs from a regional eddy‐resolving model of the Southern Ocean are analyzed. The roles of multiple physical and biogeochemical processes are identified. The decomposition of the seasonal air‐sea carbon flux shows the dominant role of biological carbon pumps that are partially compensated by the transport convergence. Finally, the framework is used to diagnose the response to mesoscale iron and alkalinity release, explicitly quantifying transport feedback and eventual impacts on net air‐sea carbon flux. Ocean carbon transport has divergent influences between iron and alkalinity release, due to opposing near‐surface gradients of dissolved inorganic carbon. We suggest that our attribution framework may be a useful analytical technique for monitoring natural ocean carbon fluxes and quantifying the impacts of human intervention on the ocean carbon cycle.

Ito, Takamitsu [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sc↗

Discovering the Multisectoral Impacts of Global Energy Sector Outcomes Through Multiple Ensemble Aggregation Measures

Understanding complex human-Earth system interactions often involves analyzing large scenario ensembles that encompass a wide range of plausible futures. These ensembles often require aggregation to summarize information based on specific criteria or conditions. However, previous research using global change scenario ensembles has largely overlooked how the choice of aggregation method influences the interpretation of results. To address this gap, we leverage a large ensemble data set designed to capture broad energy system dynamics generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. We first explore how energy-related uncertainties are propagated to both global and regional water-energy-food sectors. We then conduct a rank correlation analysis across seven ensemble aggregation measures and demonstrate the need to consider multiple measures in global change scenarios. Our results suggest that global water and food sector outcomes in the 21st century vary widely depending on different scenario assumptions. The global energy productivity is projected to improve by the end of the century across all scenarios. Moreover, regions facing water scarcity challenges in 2100 do not always overlap with those facing extreme energy and food sector outcomes. Although rank correlations across seven aggregation measures are relatively stable across sectors, we identify cases where relying on a single measure leads to losing critical information in the full ensemble. Reliance on a single aggregation measure can distort the interpretation of global change scenario outcomes. Instead, adopting multiple ensemble aggregation measures provides a more holistic understanding of global change scenario ensembles.

Kim, Gijoo↗

Stoichiometrically-informed symbolic regression for extracting chemical reaction mechanisms from data

A data-driven computational method is introduced to extract chemical reaction mechanisms from time series chemical concentration data. It is realized through the use of dynamic symbolic regression in which a sparse analytical form for a dynamical system is discoverable from the underlying data. We specifically develop the stoichiometrically-informed symbolic regression (SISR) method to address a standing challenge in complex chemical reaction networks: given a time-series dataset of concentrations of several components, what is the mechanism and the associated rate constants? SISR finds the optimal mechanism, kinetic equations and rate constants by combining differential optimization with a genetic optimization approach that searches a symbolic space of possible reaction mechanisms. Use of SISR in several paradigmatic examples spanning linear and nonlinear reaction schemes results in excellent agreement between true and predicted mechanisms, including when the method is applied to noisy data. The advantages of a stoichiometrically-informed approach such as SISR to address reaction discovery is illustrated through comparison with the use of generic state-of-the-art data-driven approaches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Entropy is an important design principle in the photosystem II supercomplex

Photosystem II (PSII) can achieve near-unity quantum efficiency of light harvesting in ideal conditions and can dissipate excess light energy as heat to prevent the formation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) under light stress. Understanding how this pigment–protein complex accomplishes these opposing goals is a topic of great interest that has so far been explored primarily through the lens of the system energetics. Despite PSII’s known flat energy landscape, a thorough consideration of the entropic effects on energy transfer in PSII is lacking. In this work, we aim to discern the free energetic design principles underlying the PSII energy transfer network. To accomplish this goal, we employ a structure-based rate matrix and compute the free energy terms in time following a specific initial excitation to discern how entropy and enthalpy drive ensemble system dynamics. We find that the interplay between the entropy and enthalpy components differ among each protein subunit, which allows each subunit to fulfill a unique role in the energy transfer network. This individuality ensures that PSII can accomplish efficient energy trapping in the reaction center (RC), effective nonphotochemical quenching (NPQ) in the periphery, and robust energy trapping in the other-monomer RC if the same-monomer RC is closed. We also show that entropy, in particular, is a dynamically tunable feature of the PSII free energy landscape accomplished through regulation of LHCII binding. These findings help rationalize natural photosynthesis and provide design principles for more efficient solar energy harvesting technologies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

CANA v1.0.0: efficient quantification of canalization in automata networks

The biomolecular networks underpinning cell function exhibit canalization, or the buffering of fluctuations required to function in a noisy environment. We present a new major release of $\tt{CANA}$, v1.0.0, an open-source Python package for understanding canalization in automata network models, discrete dynamical systems in which activation of biomolecular entities (e.g. transcription of genes) is modeled as the activity of coupled automata. One understudied putative mechanism for canalization is the functional equivalence of biomolecular regulators (e.g. among the transcription factors for a gene). We study this mechanism using the theory of symmetry in discrete functions. We present a new exact method, $\tt{schematodes}$, for finding maximal symmetry groups among the inputs to discrete functions, and integrate it into $\tt{CANA}$. The $\tt{schematodes}$ method substantially outperforms the inexact method of previous $\tt{CANA}$ versions both in speed and accuracy. We apply $\tt{CANA}$ v1.0.0 to study symmetry in 74 experimentally supported automata network models from the Cell Collective (CC) repository. The symmetry distribution is significantly different in the CC than in random automata with the same in-degree (connectivity) and bias (average output) (Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, P ≪ .001). Its spread is much wider than in a null model (IQR 0.31 versus IQR 0.20 with equal medians), demonstrating that the CC is enriched in functions with extreme symmetry or asymmetry.

Boolean networks↗

Synthetic soils for ecological and synthetic biology applications

Soils are heterogeneous and dynamic systems characterized by complex physical, chemical, and biological interactions. Understanding these interactions is critical, as they influence plant productivity, global biogeochemical cycles, and ecosystem resilience. While ecologists have long studied soils in field, greenhouse, and laboratory settings, their complexity and heterogeneity make it challenging to pinpoint key properties driving biological processes and derive mechanistic insights. Advancements in synthetic biology, which seeks to engineer and control biological processes in soils, have increased the demand for standardized and controllable experimental platforms. These platforms, referred to here as ‘synthetic soils’, are systems designed to reproduce selected physicochemical characteristics of natural soils in a simplified and defined format, allowing scientists to systematically change soil physicochemical properties (i.e. texture, mineralogy, pH) to study how biological components (i.e. microbes, plants, soil fauna, etc.) respond to, modify, or interact within these controlled environments. This review explores existing synthetic soils, their advantages, limitations, and applications in ecology and synthetic biology, and discusses potential directions for their future development.

artificial soils↗

Shuttling Majorana zero modes in disordered and noisy topological superconductors

The braiding of Majorana zero modes (MZMs) forms the fundamental building block for topological quantum computation. Braiding protocols which involve the physical exchange of MZMs are typically envisioned on a network of topological superconducting wires. An important component of these protocols is the transport of MZMs, which can be performed by using electric gates to locally tune sections of the wire between topologically trivial and nontrivial phases. In this work, we numerically simulate this transport by tuning a single section of a superconducting wire which contains either disorder (uncorrelated and correlated) or noise. We focus on the impact of these additional effects on the diabatic error, which describes unwanted transitions between the ground state and excited states. We show that the behavior of the average diabatic error is predominantly controlled by the statistics of the minimum bulk energy gap which is suppressed in the presence of disorder. The increase in diabatic error can be several orders of magnitude and is most deleterious when the disorder correlation length is a finite fraction of the transport distance and negligible when these lengths are far apart. In the presence of noise, the diabatic error is significantly enhanced due to optical transitions which depend on the minimum bulk energy gap as well as the frequency modes present in the noise. The results presented here serve to further characterize the diabatic error in disordered and noisy settings, which are important considerations in practical implementations of physical braiding schemes.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

A Digital Twin Framework for Liquid-cooled Supercomputers as Demonstrated at Exascale

We present ExaDigiT, an open-source framework for developing comprehensive digital twins of liquid-cooled supercomputers. It integrates three main modules: (1) a resource allocator and power simulator, (2) a transient thermo-fluidic cooling model, and (3) an augmented reality model of the supercomputer and central energy plant. The framework enables the study of "what-if" scenarios, system optimizations, and virtual prototyping of future systems. Using Frontier as a case study, we demonstrate the framework's capabilities by replaying six months of system telemetry for systematic verification and validation. Such a comprehensive analysis of a liquid-cooled exascale supercomputer is the first of its kind. ExaDigiT elucidates complex transient cooling system dynamics, runs synthetic or real workloads, and predicts energy losses due to rectification and voltage conversion. Throughout our paper, we present lessons learned to benefit HPC practitioners developing similar digital twins. We envision the digital twin will be a key enabler for sustainable, energy-efficient supercomputing.

Brewer, Wes↗

Semiglobal Safety-Filtered Extremum Seeking With Unknown CBFs

We introduce a safe extremum-seeking (Safe ES) algorithm which achieves the minimization of an unknown objective function while ensuring that an unknown, yet measured, control barrier function (CBF) remains above an arbitrarily small negative value for all time. In other words, “practical safety” is maintained during the entire period of convergence to the constrained extremum. Our design is based on quadratic program (QP) CBF style filters for safety, which is applied in an average and estimated sense. Using nonsmooth analysis tools, we guarantee semiglobal practical asymptotic (SPA) stability of the global constrained optimum, practical convergence to the safe set if starting in a condition violating the CBF, and practical safety for all time—semiglobally—if starting in safe set. The safety result of the paper is analogous with modern notions of SPA stability, guaranteeing that, for any small violation of safety, there exist design coefficients which guarantee that such a small violation is not exceeded. The paper outlines a set of sufficient conditions on the barrier and objective functions, and by way of a Lyapunov argument, we demonstrate that nonconvex constrained optimization problems can be solved. We present these results in the setting of a static map and a dynamical system. A simulation example illustrates the results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The transition from resistance to acceptance: Managing a marine invasive species in a changing world

Abstract Marine invasive species can transform coastal ecosystems, yet mitigating their effects can be difficult, and even impractical. Often, marine invasive species are managed at poorly matched spatial scales, and at the same time, rates of spread and establishment are increasing under climate change and can outpace resources available for population suppression. These circumstances challenge traditional conservation goals of maintaining a historic environmental state, especially for a species like the European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a formidable invader with few examples of successful long‐term removal programs. A management paradigm where decision alternatives include resisting or accepting a new ecological trajectory may be needed. We apply mathematical concepts from decision theory to develop a quantitative framework for navigating management decisions in this new resist‐accept paradigm. We develop a model of European green crab growth, removal and colonization, and we find optimal levels of removal effort that minimize both ecological change and removal cost. We establish a benchmark of colonization pressure at which green crab density becomes decoupled from a decision maker's actions, such that population control can no longer shape the invasion trajectory. For informing the decision boundary between resistance and acceptance, our results highlight that a decision maker's understanding of how removal cost scales with removal effort is more important than understanding the density‐impact relationship. We show that assuming stationary system dynamics can result in sub‐optimal levels of species removal effort, highlighting the importance of developing anticipatory management strategies by accounting for non‐stationary dynamics. Policy implications . For marine invasive species that can disperse across long distances and recolonize rapidly after removal, the focus of conservation policy should shift away from understanding how to resist change to understanding when to stop resisting change. Navigating this decision problem involves trade‐offs among competing objectives, highlighting the need for structured approaches to elicit objective weights that reflect the values of the decision maker. For natural resource managers facing possible ecosystem transformation, this decision framework can enable proactive and strategic decisions made under uncertainty in a changing world.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗

Enhancing Gaussian Process Surrogates for Optimization and Posterior Approximation via Random Exploration

This paper proposes novel noise-free Bayesian optimization strategies that rely on a random exploration step to enhance the accuracy of Gaussian process surrogate models. The new algorithms retain the ease of implementation of the classical GP-UCB algorithm, but the additional random exploration step accelerates their convergence, nearly achieving the optimal convergence rate. Furthermore, to facilitate Bayesian inference with intractable likelihoods, we propose to utilize optimization iterates for maximum a posteriori estimation to build a Gaussian process surrogate model for the unnormalized log-posterior density. We provide bounds for the Hellinger distance between the true and the approximate posterior distributions in terms of the number of design points. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our Bayesian optimization algorithms in nonconvex benchmark objective functions, in a machine learning hyperparameter tuning problem, and in a black-box engineering design problem. The effectiveness of our posterior approximation approach is demonstrated in two Bayesian inference problems for parameters of dynamical systems.

Bayesian inference↗

ciemss/pyciemss

Causal and probabilistic reasoning with continuous time dynamical systems

Witty, Sam [Sorbus AI]↗

Verifiable Fuel Cycle Simulation

The Verifiable Fuel Cycle Simulation (VISION) is a system-dynamics model of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, from mining to disposal, using user-defined deployment scenarios, fuel recipes, and recycling parameters. It is written in the PowerSim simulation environment and utilized MS Excel to manage data inputs and outputs.

Hays, RossD (0000000184587539)↗

Interplays In The Rare Earth Element Value Chain

An imbalance problem exists in the rare earth element (REE) market with cerium and lanthanum being more abundant and less valuable than REEs used in permanent magnets such as neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium. Research has been conducted on new applications for abundant REEs to improve mining economics. However, potential market impacts of these applications on individual REE commodities are unknown. A system dynamics model was built to investigate the impacts of a new aluminum-cerium (Al-Ce) alloy that can theoretically utilize three separate cerium forms: cerium carbonate, cerium oxide, or cerium metal. Cerium carbonate currently possesses the lowest price of the three available forms making it initially the most favorable choice. However, model results showed that cerium oxide could provide the best economics for future Al-Ce alloy deployment because its larger market size buffers major shocks to price.

Severson, Michael [Idaho National Laboratory (INL)↗

Reno

Reno is a tool for creating, visualizing, and analyzing system dynamics models in Python. It additionally has the ability to convert models to PyMC, allowing Bayesian inference on models with variables that include prior probability distributions.

Martindale, Nathan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗

likeprop

Propagating uncertainties & sensitivities through dynamical system

Nishant, Panda↗