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DOE OSTI2023

The future of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences

Future changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are uncertain, both because future projections differ between climate models and because the large internal variability of ENSO clouds the diagnosis of forced changes in observations and individual climate model simulations. By leveraging 14 single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), we robustly isolate the time-evolving response of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability to anthropogenic forcing from internal variability in each SMILE. We find nonlinear changes in time in many models and considerable inter-model differences in projected changes in ENSO and the mean-state tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient. We demonstrate a linear relationship between the change in ENSO SST variability and the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient, although forced changes in the tropical Pacific SST gradient often occur later in the 21st century than changes in ENSO SST variability, which can lead to departures from the linear relationship. Single-forcing SMILEs show a potential contribution of anthropogenic forcing (aerosols and greenhouse gases) to historical changes in ENSO SST variability, while the observed historical strengthening of the tropical Pacific SST gradient sits on the edge of the model spread for those models for which single-forcing SMILEs are available. Our results highlight the value of SMILEs for investigating time-dependent forced responses and inter-model differences in ENSO projections. The nonlinear changes in ENSO SST variability found in many models demonstrate the importance of characterizing this time-dependent behavior, as it implies that ENSO impacts may vary dramatically throughout the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1976

Aioun el Atrouss - A new hypersthene achondrite with eucritic inclusions

Preliminary investigations have been made on two separate pieces from the Aioun el Atrouss meteorite that fell on April 17, 1974 in southeast Mauritania. The major portion of the meteorite is a brecciated hypersthene achondrite with orthopyroxene (En74) as the major phase. Clasts of eucrite, up to 7 per cent in volume within a single slice, occur within the hypersthene achondrite host. No evidence has been found of reaction between the two meteorite types, nor of the presence of any materials intermediate in composition.

Lomena, I. S. M.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Aioun el Atrouss - Evidence for thermal recrystallization of a eurite breccia

The Aioun el Atrouss meteorite is a breccia consisting largely of angular fragments of green orthopyroxene and containing scattered clasts of basaltic composition (mostly pigeonite and calcic plagioclase). It appears to be a physical mixture of two meteorite types - diogenite (hypersthene achondrite) and eucrite (basaltic achondrite). The results of a mineral analysis are tabulated, and typical pyroxene compositions in orthopyroxene (diogenite), subophitic and granoblastic portions of the meteorite are presented.

Duke, M. B.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A study of the initial oxidation of evaporated thin films of aluminum by AES, ELS, and ESD

The room temperature, low pressure, oxidation of evaporated aluminum thin films has been studied by AES, ELS, and ESD. ESD was the most sensitive of the three methods to characterize a clean aluminum surface. Two oxidation stages were distinguished in the 0-3000 L oxygen exposure range. Between 0 and 50 L, the chemisorption of oxygen atoms was characterized by a fast decrease of the 67 eV AES Al peak and the 10 eV surface plasmon peak, and by a simultaneous increase of the oxygen AES and ESD signals. After 50 L, a change in slope in all AES and ESD signal variations was attributed to the slow growth of a thin layer of aluminum oxide, which after 3000 L was still only a few angstroms thick.

Bujor, M.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A simple atmospheric model of relevance to El Nino

A linear, equatorial, beta-plane atmosphere model with heating parameterized in terms of SST anomalies is developed and used to simulate surface wind anomalies in the equatorial Pacific during El Nino. The model results show some similarity to observations with respect to movement of the major convergence zones, and equatorial wind anomaly patterns in the central and western Pacific. There is considerable discrepancy between the model results and observations in much of the eastern Pacific, especially in the South Pacific high and southeast trades regions. The results suggest that some additional mechanisms may be responsible for these apparently sizeable and spatially coherent fluctuations, but that a direct link between wind anomalies and SST anomalies may indeed exist in much of the equatorial Pacific.

Zebiak, S. E.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Radiative effects of the El Chichon volcanic eruption. Preliminary results concerning remote sensing

The aerosols and gases resulting from the El Chichon volcanic eruption had, and may still have, significant effects on satellite measurements of the properties of the Earth's atmosphere. The sea surface temperature measured by the AVHRR was biased up to -2.5 C for many months. The total amount of ozone derived from TOMS with a standard algorithm was greatly in excess of the possible value. This apparent excess can now be explained in terms of additional absorption by SO2. Infrared temperature sounders have observed both positive and negative anomalies. These effects and others on many satellite measurements are addressed following a discussion of the history and composition of the ejecta remaining in the stratosphere. Finally, recommendations are made for further study to account for the effects of volcanic eruptions on satellite observations and for use of such observations to measure the characteristics of the ejecta.

Bandeen, W. R.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Temperature effects on the stratosphere of the April 4, 1982 eruption of El Chichon, Mexico

Aerosol evaluation was found to be necessary to explain the 30 mb temperature increases observed in July-Oct. 1982 in comparison with averages for the period 1964-1981. An average difference of 1-1.5 C was determined at 30 mb, coinciding with 1 C deviations at the 50 mb level, for the first half of 1982. The 30 mb differences increased to 4.5-5 C, compared to the 18 yr average, during the July-Oct. period. GOES satellite imagery indicated that material from the El Chichon volcano eruptions had entered the stratosphere. Lidar backscattering ratios indicated the preponderance of the material resided in the 22-28 km interval. Airborne lidar measurements on two occasions confirmed the anomalies' presence south of 30 deg N latitude. Further monitoring of the aerosol evolution is indicated.

Labitzke, K.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Stratospheric sulfuric acid fraction and mass estimate for the 1982 volcanic eruption of El Chichon

The stratospheric sulfuric acid fraction and mass for the 1982 volcanic eruptions of El Chichon are investigated using data from balloon soundings at Laramie (41 deg N) and in southern Texas (27-29 deg N). The total stratospheric mass of these eruptions is estimated to be approximately 8 Tg about 6.5 months after the eruption with possibly as much as 20 Tg in the stratosphere about 45 days after the eruption. Observations of the aerosol in Texas revealed two primary layers, both highly volatile at 150 C. Aerosol in the upper layer at about 25 km was composed of an approximately 80 percent H2SO4 solution while the lower layer at approximately 18 km was composed of a 60-65 percent H2SO4 solution aerosol. It is calculated that an H2SO4 vapor concentration of at least 3 x 10 to the 7th molecules/cu cm is needed to sustain the large droplets in the upper layer. An early bi-modal nature in the size distribution indicates droplet nucleation from the gas phase during the first 3 months, while the similarity of the large particle profiles 2 months apart shows continued particle growth 6.5 months after the explosion.

Hofmann, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Optical properties of the ash from El Chichon volcano

The visible wavelength optical properties of the ash from the 1982 El Chichon eruptions are measured using ash samples collected at three surface sites at distances between 12 and 80 km from the volcano. The most distant sample is assumed to be the most representative of the silicate ash injected into the stratosphere. The measured optical properties are presented as a complex refractive index n, while the aerosol absorption is expressed as the imaginary component of the refractive index, n sub IM. Results show that each of these samples exhibited low values of absorption, with n sub IM at 500 nm ranging from 0.0015 for the 12 km sample to 0.001 for the 80 km sample. Based on these measurements, it is estimated that n for the stratospheric silicate ash is given by n = 1.53 - 0.001i.

Patterson, E. M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Sighting of El Chichon sulfur dioxide clouds with the Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer

The eruptions of El Chichon volcano on March 28 and April 3 and 4, 1982 were observed by the Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer due to strong absorption by volcanic gases at the shortest wavelengths of the spectrometer (312.5 and 317.5 nm). These ultraviolet pictures permit a measurement of the volume, dispersion, and drift of volcanic gas clouds. The tropospheric clouds were rapidly dispersed in westerly winds while persistent stratospheric clouds drifted in easterly winds at speeds up to 13 m/sec. The spectral reflectance is consistent with sulfur dioxide absorption and rules out carbon disulfide as a major constituent. A preliminary estimate of the mass of sulfur dioxide deposited in the stratosphere by the large eruptions on April 3 and 4 is 3.3 million tons. Prior estimates of volcanic cloud volume were based on extrapolation of locally measured sulfur dioxide concentrations.

Krueger, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

El Chichon eruption cloud - Latitudinal variation of the spectral optical thickness for October 1982

Sun photometer measurements of the spectral optical thickness of the El Chichon eruption cloud were obtained during an airborne latitudinal survey. The measured optical thicknesses were greatly enhanced over background levels for the stratosphere. The observations covered 44 deg N to 36 deg S, and increased optical thickness was found at all latitudes where measurements were made. Significant variations in the magnitude and spectral dependence of the optical thickness were found within the latitude range covered by the observations. The maximum optical thickness was found at 20 deg N and the minimum was found at 30 deg S. The optical thickness values ranged between 0.13 and 0.017 at 870 nm and between 0.15 and 0.044 at 440 nm.

Spinhirne, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1983

El Chichon eruption cloud - Comparison of lidar and optical thickness measurements for October 1982

Sun photometer and lidar backscatter measurements of the El Chichon volcanic cloud were obtained during an airborne latitude survey. The observations were collected between 46 deg N and 46 deg S from Oct. 19-Nov. 7, 1982. Comparisons between these data sets have been performed. An aerosol optical model was developed for the conversion of the lidar measurements to optical thickness values using numerical aerosol size distribution data and index of refraction information collected with coordinated dustsonde balloon flights. The derived lidar optical thickness values were found to agree with the sun photometer optical thickness values within measurement uncertainties. The lidar derived values ranged from 0.16 at the equator to 0.03 at 30 deg S latitude. Peak values were concentrated between 35 deg N and 10 deg S.

Swissler, T. J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

El Chichon - Composition of plume gases and particles

Aircraft measurements were made of trace gases, atmospheric particles, and condensed acid volatiles in the plume of El Chichon volcano, Chiapas, Mexico, in November 1982. Hydrogen sulfide was the primary gaseous sulfur species in the plume at the time of collection. Concentrations of 28 elements were determined by neutron activation analysis of particulate material from the plume. The volatile elements sulfur, chlorine, arsenic, selenium, bromine, antimony, iodine, tungsten, and mercury were enriched relative to bulk pyroclastic material by factors of 60 to 20,000. Arsenic, antimony, and selenium were associated predominantly with small (not greater than 3 micrometer) particles. Calcium and sodium were present almost exclusively on larger particles and aluminum and manganese were bimodally distributed. Ashladen particulate material injected into the stratosphere during the early violent eruptions was enriched by factors of 10 to 30 relative to ash in some of the same elements observed in the quiescent plume.

Kotra, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Effect of the eruption of El Chichon stratospheric aerosol size and composition

Dominant effects of the El Chichon eruption on stratospheric aerosols at 19.8 to 20.7 km are: (1) vapor depositional growth of the small-aerosol (background) mode; (2) development of a large-particle mode by sedimentation from the highest altitudes in the cloud; (3) a change in the large-particle mode from sulfate-coated silicates to sulfate aerosols, some with silicate cores; (4) a 100-fold increase in sulfate mass in the large particle mode. Terminal velocities of large silicate particles, maximum r = 2.3 micron, sampled 1 month after eruption, and calibrated with the aid of lidar data, indicate initial injection to 26 to 27 km. Smaller velocities of sulfate aerosols, median r = 0.5 micron, are compatible with major growth in 2 to 3 months at 27 to 28 km. Aerosol settling accounts for the descent of the main lidar return to 26.5 km in August and to 20 to 21 km in December.

Oberbeck, V. R.↗

NASA NTRS1983

El Chichon volcanic ash in the stratosphere - Particle abundances and size distributions after the 1982 eruption

Volcanic ash particles collected from the stratosphere after the March/April, 1982 explosive eruption of El Chichon volcano, Mexico, were mostly 2-40 micron vesicular shards of silicic volcanic glass that varied in abundance, at 16.8-19.2 km altitude, from 200 per cu m (30-49 deg N lat.) in May to 1.3 per cu m (45-75 deg N) in October. At the minimum, the ash cloud covered latitudes 10-60 deg N in July and 10 deg S-75 deg N in October. In May and July, ash particles were mostly free, individual shards (and clusters of shards) but, by October, were intimately associated with liquid droplets (presumably, sulfuric acid). In May 1982, the total stratospheric burden of ash was at least 240 tons (2.2 x 10 to the 8th g) although the total ash injected into the stratosphere by the eruption was probably 480-8400 tons.

Gooding, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Balloon and aircraft measurement of stratospheric sulfate mixing ratio following the El Chichon eruption

Profiles of sulfate mixing ratio versus altitude over the range 15-28 km were obtained from filter samples collected aboard balloons and U-2 aircraft. Observations were made in the summer, fall, and winter following the March-April 1982, El Chichon eruption. Observed sulfate mixing ratios were approximately two orders of magnitude greater than typical background (not volcanically augmented) mixing ratios. The sulfate mixing ratios obtained form the aircraft filter measurements were in good agreement with the results from a wire impactor and a particle counter flown simultaneously. Computations of the amount of sulfate contained in a vertical column of sq m were in agreement with similar calculations from airborne lidar, balloon-borne particle counters, and Solar Mesosphere Explorer satellite radiance retrievals.

Gandrud, B. W.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Measurements of stratospheric SO2 after the EL Chichon eruptions

Samples of stratospheric trace gases were obtained on eight flights of NASA high-altitude aircraft from April 16 through December 13, 1982. The sampling occurred at altitudes from 15 to 22 km, latitudes from 23 to 52 deg N, and longitudes from 108 to 130 deg W. The cryogenically concentrated samples were analyzed by gas chromatography for SO2, a primary precursor of the gas-to-particle conversion process. The measured mixing ratio of SO2 varied between 8 and 132 pptv. Evidence from aerosol measurements indicates that a few of our early samples may have been collected in the fringes of the volcanic cloud from El Chichon. Samples obtained on some later flights may have been from the eruption cloud but were taken at times when most of the volcanically injected SO2 should have been converted to H2SO4.

Vedder, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1983

A two-dimensional model simulation of the EL Chichon volcanic eruption cloud

Using a two-dimensional model of sulfate photochemistry, transport, and aerosol microphysics, a 2-year period following the eruptions of El Chichon have been simulated. Present calculations suggest that the residence time of the cloud in the stratosphere exceeds 2 years. The model reproduces the observed optical depth, lidar backscatter, and infrared extinction coefficients, if about 10 megatonnes of SO2 are injected. The major deficiency of the model is a somewhat too rapid transport.

Capone, L. A.↗