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DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning-based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire

Reliable projections of wildfire and associated socioeconomic risks are crucial for the development of efficient and effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. The lack of or limited observational constraints for modeling outputs impairs the credibility of wildfire projections. Here, we present a machine learning framework to constrain the future fire carbon emissions simulated by 13 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), using historical, observed joint states of fire-relevant variables. During the twenty-first century, the observation-constrained ensemble indicates a weaker increase in global fire carbon emissions but higher increase in global wildfire exposure in population, gross domestic production, and agricultural area, compared with the default ensemble. Such elevated socioeconomic risks are primarily caused by the compound regional enhancement of future wildfire activity and socioeconomic development in the western and central African countries, necessitating an emergent strategic preparedness to wildfires in these countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Climate warming and elevated CO 2 alter peatland soil carbon sources and stability

Peatlands are an important carbon (C) reservoir storing one-third of global soil organic carbon (SOC), but little is known about the fate of these C stocks under climate change. Here, we examine the impact of warming and elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration (eCO 2 ) on the molecular composition of SOC to infer SOC sources (microbe-, plant- and fire-derived) and stability in a boreal peatland. We show that while warming alone decreased plant- and microbe-derived SOC due to enhanced decomposition, warming combined with eCO 2 increased plant-derived SOC compounds. We further observed increasing root-derived inputs (suberin) and declining leaf/needle-derived inputs (cutin) into SOC under warming and eCO 2 . The decline in SOC compounds with warming and gains from new root-derived C under eCO 2 , suggest that warming and eCO 2 may shift peatland C budget towards pools with faster turnover. Together, our results indicate that climate change may increase inputs and enhance decomposition of SOC potentially destabilising C storage in peatlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A trade-off between plant and soil carbon storage under elevated CO 2

Terrestrial ecosystems remove about 30 per cent of the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emitted by human activities each year, yet the persistence of this carbon sink depends partly on how plant biomass and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks respond to future increases in atmospheric CO 2 . Although plant biomass often increases in elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) experiments, SOC has been observed to increase, remain unchanged or even decline. The mechanisms that drive this variation across experiments remain poorly understood, creating uncertainty in climate projections. In this study we synthesized data from 108 eCO 2 experiments and found that the effect of eCO 2 on SOC stocks is best explained by a negative relationship with plant biomass: when plant biomass is strongly stimulated by eCO 2 , SOC storage declines; conversely, when biomass is weakly stimulated, SOC storage increases. This trade-off appears to be related to plant nutrient acquisition, in which plants increase their biomass by mining the soil for nutrients, which decreases SOC storage. We found that, overall, SOC stocks increase with eCO 2 in grasslands (8 ± 2 per cent) but not in forests (0 ± 2 per cent), even though plant biomass in grasslands increase less (9 ± 3 per cent) than in forests (23 ± 2 per cent). Ecosystem models do not reproduce this trade-off, which implies that projections of SOC may need to be revised.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Metabolic Profiling Reveals Biochemical Pathways Responsible for Eelgrass Response to Elevated CO2 and Temperature

Abstract As CO 2 levels in Earth’s atmosphere and oceans steadily rise, varying organismal responses may produce ecological losers and winners. Increased ocean CO 2 can enhance seagrass productivity and thermal tolerance, providing some compensation for climate warming. However, the metabolic shifts driving the positive response to elevated CO 2 by these important ecosystem engineers remain unknown. We analyzed whole-plant performance and metabolic profiles of two geographically distinct eelgrass ( Zostera marina L.) populations in response to CO 2 enrichment. In addition to enhancing overall plant size, growth and survival, CO 2 enrichment increased the abundance of Calvin Cycle and nitrogen assimilation metabolites while suppressing the abundance of stress-related metabolites. Overall metabolome differences between populations suggest that some eelgrass phenotypes may be better suited than others to cope with an increasingly hot and sour sea. Our results suggest that seagrass populations will respond variably, but overall positively, to increasing CO 2 concentrations, generating negative feedbacks to climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Instability of U 3 Si 2 in pressurized water media at elevated temperatures

Following the Fukushima Daiichi accident, significant efforts from industry and the scientific community have been directed towards the development of alternative nuclear reactor fuels with enhanced accident tolerance. Among the proposed materials for such fuels is a uranium silicide compound (U 3 Si 2 ), which has been selected for its enhanced thermal conductivity and high density of uranium compared to the reference commercial light water reactor (LWR) nuclear fuel, uranium oxide (UO 2 ). To be a viable candidate LWR fuel, however, U 3 Si 2 must also demonstrate that, in the event of this fuel coming in contact with aqueous media, it will not degrade rapidly. In this contribution, we report the results of experiments investigating the stability of U 3 Si 2 in pressurized water at elevated temperatures and identify the mechanisms that control the interaction of U 3 Si 2 under these conditions. Our data indicate that the stability of this material is primarily controlled by the formation of a layer of USiO 4 (the mineral, coffinite) at the surface of U 3 Si 2 . The results also show that these layers are destabilized at T > 300 °C, leading to the complete decomposition of U 3 Si 2 and its pulverization due to its full oxidation to UO 2 .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Uranium carbonate complexes demonstrate drastic decrease in stability at elevated temperatures

Quantitative understanding of uranium transport by high temperature fluids is crucial for confident assessment of its migration in a number of natural and artificially induced contexts, such as hydrothermal uranium ore deposits and nuclear waste stored in geological repositories. An additional recent and atypical context would be the seawater inundated fuel of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Given its wide applicability, understanding uranium transport will be useful regardless of whether nuclear power finds increased or decreased adoption in the future. The amount of uranium that can be carried by geofluids is enhanced by the formation of complexes with inorganic ligands. Carbonate has long been touted as a critical transporting ligand for uranium in both ore deposit and waste repository contexts. However, this paradigm has only been supported by experiments conducted at ambient conditions. We have experimentally evaluated the ability of carbonate-bearing fluids to dissolve (and therefore transport) uranium at high temperature, and discovered that in fact, at temperatures above 100 °C, carbonate becomes almost completely irrelevant as a transporting ligand. This demands a re-evaluation of a number of hydrothermal uranium transport models, as carbonate can no longer be considered key to the formation of uranium ore deposits or as an enabler of uranium transport from nuclear waste repositories at elevated temperatures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Validation of Thermal Scattering Laws for Light Water at Elevated Temperatures with Diffusion Experiments

Light water is the most important neutron moderator in many reactor applications. Thermal neutron scattering kernels for H bound in H 2 O are represented by ENDF-format thermal scattering laws (TSLs) evaluated at discrete temperatures T . Nuclear data evaluations are conventionally validated utilizing a combination of critical benchmarks and experimental cross section data. Existing public critical benchmarks may be inadequate for testing water TSLs over the full range of T of interest in reactor applications, and experimental thermal scattering cross section data for water is sparse at elevated T . In this work, MC21 is used to simulate the decay of the equilibrium thermal neutron flux in light-water spheres of several radii. The fundamental-mode time eigenvalue $\mathcal{a}$ is calculated at 22 °C and 227 °C (at saturation pressure) for each sphere using three different H-H 2 O TSLs. Fitting $\mathcal{a}$ to a polynomial function of geometric buckling allows calculation of the thermal neutron diffusion length L . Extrapolation lengths are treated as a function of the transport mean free path and geometry. Experimental L data from 25 publications at 49 temperatures (from 10 °C to 295 °C), computed by several different time-dependent and space-dependent decay methods, is used to develop an empirical fit of L vs. T . The MC21-calculated L for the TSLs tested are within ±1% of the predicted values at 22 °C and 227 °C. This validation approach, which may be repeated at arbitrary T , constitutes an integral benchmark specific to and characterizing the detailed physics of the thermal scattering kernel applied.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

The behavior of methane–water mixtures under elevated pressures from simulations using many-body potentials

Non-polarizable empirical potentials have been proven to be incapable of capturing the mixing of methane–water mixtures at elevated pressures. Although density functional theory-based ab initio simulations may circumvent this discrepancy, they are limited in terms of the relevant time and length scales associated with mixing phenomena. Here, we show that the many-body MB-nrg potential, designed to reproduce methane–water interactions with coupled cluster accuracy, successfully captures this phenomenon up to 3 GPa and 500 K with varying methane concentrations. Two-phase simulations and long time scales that are required to fully capture the mixing, affordable due to the speed and accuracy of the MBX software, are assessed. Constructing the methane–water equation of state across the phase diagram shows that the stable mixtures are denser than the sum of their parts at a given pressure and temperature. As a result, we find that many-body polarization plays a central role, enhancing the induced dipole moments of methane by 0.20 D during mixing under pressure. Overall, the mixed system adopts a denser state, which involves a significant enthalpic driving force as elucidated by a systematic many-body energy decomposition analysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Windthrow characteristics and their regional association with rainfall, soil, and surface elevation in the Amazon

Abstract Windthrows (trees uprooted and broken by winds) are common across the Amazon. They range in size from single trees to large gaps that lead to changes in forest dynamics, composition, structure, and carbon balance. Yet, the current understanding of the spatial variability of windthrows is limited. By integrating remote sensing data and geospatial analysis, we present the first study to examine the occurrence, area, and direction of windthrows and the control that environmental variables exert on them across the whole Amazon. Windthrows are more frequent and larger in the northwestern Amazon (Peru and Colombia), with the central Amazon (Brazil) being another hot spot of windthrows. The predominant direction of windthrows is westward. Rainfall, surface elevation, and soil characteristics explain the variability (20%–50%) of windthrows but their effects vary regionally. A better understanding of the spatial dynamics of windthrows will improve understanding of the functioning of Amazon forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Interannual precipitation controls on soil CO 2 fluxes in high elevation conifer and aspen forests

Abstract Long-term soil CO 2 emission measurements are necessary for detecting trends and interannual variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Such records are becoming increasingly valuable as ecosystems experience altered environmental conditions associated with climate change. From 2013 to 2021, we continuously measured soil CO 2 concentrations in the two dominant high elevation forest types, mixed conifer and aspen, in the upper Colorado River basin. We quantified the soil CO 2 flux during the summer months, and found that the mean and total CO 2 flux in both forests was related to the prior winter’s snowfall and current summer’s rainfall, with greater sensitivity to rainfall. We observed a decline in surface soil CO 2 production, which we attributed to warming and a decrease in amount and frequency of summer rains. Our results demonstrate strong precipitation control on the soil CO 2 flux in mountainous regions, a finding which has important implications for carbon cycling under future environmental change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Acoustic waves from the 2023 April 20 SpaceX Starship rocket explosion travelling in the elevated ‘AtmoSOFAR’ channel

SUMMARY The ability to detect low-frequency sounds from distant energetic events depends on the temperature and wind structure of the atmosphere. Thus, from time to time surface-based acoustic detectors may not be able to capture sounds arriving from certain directions. However, the temperature minimum at the tropopause may create an acoustic duct called the ‘AtmoSOFAR’ channel that could transmit acoustic waves laterally—but perhaps not to the ground. If true, then elevated sensors such as those borne aloft by balloons would record the signatures even in regions where ground-based sensors cannot. This has been difficult to prove because high altitude acoustic sources are rare and balloon deployments are sporadic. This work describes the detection and characterization of powerful acoustic waves generated during the launch and terminal explosion of the SpaceX Starship rocket on 2023 April 20 using a pair of microbarometers on a stratospheric balloon. The signals travelled through the AtmoSOFAR channel, carrying information about the size and nature of their source. This channel also appears to leak some acoustic energy to the ground, in agreement with previous studies. The acoustic yield of the Starship terminal explosion was on the order of $10^3$ tons trinitrotoluene equivalent, which agrees with the estimated fuel load of the vehicle to about a factor of 2, but is two orders of magnitude larger than optical estimates. These results support an earlier study that claimed lateral transmission of sound from a smaller rocket through the AtmoSOFAR channel. The transmission of source information through the AtmoSOFAR channel motivates its use for monitoring other natural and anthropogenic events using balloon-borne sensors. This may become increasingly important as more and more private and government entities conduct spacecraft launches and reentries. It may also provide a means of monitoring clear air turbulence and other sound-generating atmospheric phenomena at a distance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of structural and thermal properties of Nb 2 CT X MXenes at elevated temperature

Nb-based MXenes, particularly Nb 2 CT X is noted for its metallic characteristics, and nearly zero band gap because of it 2D structure. Different synthesis processes have been utilized such as HF etching, HCl/LiF and molten salt method to prepare delaminated Nb 2 CT X MXene sheets[1]. Moreover, various approaches have been tried for modifying MXenes properties including partial oxidation for application such as energy storage, gas sensing, photocatalyst etc. One step synthesis technique used for creating efficient hydrogen evolution photocatalyst comprised of Nb 2 O 5 /C/Nb 2 C composites. Furthermore, we have prepared Nb 2 CT X MXenes with a strong etching method and investigated its fundamental properties at elevated temperature.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2020

Elevated ionizing photon production efficiency in faint high-equivalent-width Lyman-α emitters

ABSTRACT While low-luminosity galaxies dominate number counts at all redshifts, their contribution to cosmic reionization is poorly understood due to a lack of knowledge of their physical properties. We isolate a sample of 35 z ≈ 4–5 continuum-faint Lyman-α emitters from deep VLT/MUSE spectroscopy and directly measure their H α emission using stacked Spitzer/IRAC Ch. 1 photometry. Based on Hubble Space Telescope imaging, we determine that the average UV continuum magnitude is fainter than −16 (≈ 0.01 L⋆), implying a median Lyman-α equivalent width of 259 Å. By combining the H α measurement with the UV magnitude, we determine the ionizing photon production efficiency, ξion, a first for such faint galaxies. The measurement of log10 (ξion [Hz erg−1]) = 26.28 ($^{+0.28}_{-0.40}$) is in excess of literature measurements of both continuum- and emission line-selected samples, implying a more efficient production of ionizing photons in these lower luminosity, Lyman-α-selected systems. We conclude that this elevated efficiency can be explained by stellar populations with metallicities between 4 × 10−4 and 0.008, with light-weighted ages less than 3 Myr.

Maseda, Michael V.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sequential versus Simultaneous Aging of EPDM Nuclear Cable Insulation Subjected to Elevated Temperature and Gamma Radiation

Electrical cables are integral to power, control, and instrumentation systems within nuclear power plants (NPPs). Exposure of cable systems within nuclear containment to elevated temperatures and gamma radiation during decades-long operation of NPPs can lead to degradation of cable polymeric insulation. Prediction of nuclear cable insulation degradation is complicated as thermal and radiation stress are not additive. In this work, we explore the relative effects of simultaneous and sequential thermal and gamma irradiation on the aging of ethylene-propylene-diene (EPDM) elastomer insulation to better understand realistic scenarios of cable insulation degradation. Cable insulation samples of EPDM were subjected to up to 320 kGy of gamma radiation at a dose rate of 300 Gy/hr in two heating scenarios: (1) simultaneously aged samples were heated at 150°C during irradiation and (2) sequentially aged samples were heated at 150°C for designated durations followed by corresponding periods of irradiation at ambient temperature. The mass, tensile elongation at break, and carbonyl index were assessed to quantify aging of the polymers. The simultaneous aging scenario was found to the more severe of the two for EPDM insulation degradation.

ethylene-propylene-diene elastomer, EPDM, nuclear ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Principal Component Analysis of Nuclear Cable Insulation Subjected to Elevated Temperature and Gamma Radiation

In nuclear power plants (NPPs), the aging of electrical cable insulation occurs due to elevated temperature, ionizing radiation, and other environmental factors. To ensure the safe and efficient operation of NPPs, determination of key indicators of cable aging is critical to predict the remaining useful lifetime of electrical cable insulation. In this work, the effects of simultaneous and sequential thermal and gamma radiation on the aging of cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) electrical cable insulation are investigated. The chemical changes of the insulation were monitored non-destructively through the use of Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. The FTIR spectra were measured stepwise after predetermined exposure intervals, with a total irradiation dose up to 320 kGy at a dose rate of 300 Gy/hr in two exposure scenarios; simultaneously aged samples were heated at 150 °C during irradiation, while sequentially aged samples were heated at 150 °C for designated durations followed by corresponding times of irradiation at ambient temperature. A data-driven approach using principal component analysis (PCA) was developed to highlight changes in the carbonyl region of the infrared spectra of the aged samples due to oxidation and to differentiate oxidation rates under the simultaneous and sequential exposure conditions. Findings indicate that the sequential aging scenario may be more conservative than the simultaneous aging scenario for XLPE electrical cable insulation.

Li, Donghui↗

DOE OSTI2020

Light and Elevated Temperature Induced Degradation (LeTID) in a Utility-Scale Photovoltaic System

Here, we present a detailed case study of degradation in monocrystalline silicon photovoltaic modules operating in a utility-scale power plant over the course of approximately three years. We present the results of degradation analysis on arrays within the site, and find that five of the six arrays degraded faster than the best performing array, even though the arrays consist of modules of the same manufacturer and model. We also describe the results of extensive laboratory characterization of modules returned from the field, including module- and cell-level current–voltage characterization, luminescence imaging, and accelerated testing. The laboratory test results and the field performance are consistent with light and elevated temperature induced degradation (LeTID). Notably, we observe differences in back contact technology between affected and unaffected modules. This article also demonstrates a method to identify possible LeTID degradation in the field and confirm the result with laboratory testing of a small number of modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Light- and Elevated-Temperature-Induced Degradation-Affected Silicon Cells From a Utility-Scale Photovoltaic System Characterized by Deep-Level Transient Spectroscopy

Photovoltaic modules from a utility-scale field experienced power loss by light- and elevated-temperature-induced degradation (LeTID). Samples from the affected monocrystalline silicon cells are cored and extracted from the module packaging and then laser-scribed to form 2-mm diameter isolated areas. Using deep-level transient spectroscopy, a majority-carrier, hole-trap defect with an activation energy of 0.42 eV is detected on degraded and regenerated samples. The LeTID-degraded sample, however, has a larger signal corresponding to a trap density of 1.1 x 10 13 cm -3 , which is about five times larger than the 2.1 x 10 12 cm -3 trap density of the regenerated sample. An increase in filling pulse time from 50 u s to 20 ms shows a slight decrease in activation energy from 0.42 to 0.36 eV suggesting that the defect level may consist of a band of energy states where shallower states continue to fill with long filling times. The capture rate of the defect is directly measured using an increasing series of filling pulsewidths in 15 to 125 ns range. This leads to a measured capture cross section of 5.1 x 10 -17 cm 2 , and using an approximate defect density of 10 13 cm -3 , the majority-carrier-hole lifetime related to this defect is approximately 100 u s when in the LeTID-degraded state.

charge carrier lifetime↗

DOE OSTI2024

MOLLER Spectrometer Magnet Design With Measured Mechanical Properties of Irradiated S2-Glass Reinforced Cyanate Ester Resin at Elevated Temperature

Here, the aim of this study was to retire the risk of maintaining the integrity of S2-glass reinforced CTD-403 (a cyanate ester resin) that is exposed to radiation and elevated temperature over the life of the measurement of a lepton–lepton electroweak reaction (MOLLER) experiment in experimental Hall A at Jefferson Lab, Newport News, VA. In this article, the shear strength and flexural modulus of irradiated S2-glass reinforced CTD-403 specimens were measured at 65 °C (the magnets are to operate at less than 65 °C) under two scenarios: vacuum and gaseous nitrogen. The testing method is the short-beam shear (SBS) test according to ASTM D2344. The specimens were exposed to neutrons and gamma rays up to 124 MGy. The results show that specimens have excellent resistance against radiation, only 23% degradation of apparent shear strength with 124 MGy at 65 °C under vacuum. At the highest dose areas of the coils, tungsten plates are used to reduce the radiation dose to the resin system. The conclusion is that S2-glass reinforced CTD-403 is well-suited for electrical insulation of MOLLER magnets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗