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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
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DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Severe Weather Prediction With Microwave All‐Sky Radiance Assimilation: The 10 August 2020 Midwest Derecho

Abstract In this study, we assimilated microwave (MW) all‐sky radiances from low‐Earth‐orbiting satellites and examined their impact on the analyses and forecasts of weather hazards associated with the 10 August 2020 Midwest derecho. Compared with the baseline that assimilated conventional surface and upper‐air observations and infrared (IR) all‐sky radiances from geostationary satellites, the addition of MW all‐sky radiances improved the analyzed and forecasted convection‐stratiform structures of the derecho. Results show that MW all‐sky radiances provided additional information, compared with IR radiances, on hydrometeors within the storm, leading to improved forecasts out to 2 hr with quantitatively more accurate surface gusts. This is the first study to assimilate MW all‐sky radiances for a severe weather event using a convection‐permitting numerical weather prediction model (our model resembles NOAA's High‐Resolution Rapid Refresh), and the results suggest promising avenues for improving severe weather forecasts worldwide in the future.

Zhang, Yunji↗
DOE OSTI2023

Drainage network response to Arctic warming

Rapid Arctic warming may increase erosion and stream channel formation, which alters the flux of sediments, carbon, and nutrients in these sensitive ecosystems. Yet, understanding landscape change is hampered by a lack of predictive tools applicable to permafrost settings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The detection of marine microseismic activity with the CUORE tonne-scale cryogenic experiment

Vibrations from experimental setups and the environment are a persistent source of noise for low-temperature calorimeters searching for rare events, including neutrinoless double beta ( 0νββ ) decay or dark matter interactions. Such noise can significantly limit experimental sensitivity to the physics case under investigation. Here, we report the detection of marine microseismic vibrations using mK-scale calorimeters. This study employs a multi-device analysis correlating data from CUORE, the leading experiment in the search for 0νββ decay with mK-scale calorimeters, and the Copernicus Earth Observation program, revealing the seasonal impact of Mediterranean Sea activity on CUORE’s energy thresholds, resolution, and sensitivity over four years. The detection of marine microseisms underscores the need to address faint environmental noise in ultra-sensitive experiments. Understanding how such noise couples to the detector and developing mitigation strategies is essential for next-generation experiments. We demonstrate one such strategy: a noise decorrelation algorithm implemented in CUORE using auxiliary sensors, which reduces vibrational noise and improves detector performance. Enhancing sensitivity to 0νββ decay and to rare events with low-energy signatures requires identifying unresolved noise sources, advancing noise reduction methods, and improving vibration suppression systems, all of which inform the design of next-generation rare event experiments.

experimental nuclear physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cooling outweighs warming across phenological transitions in the Northern Hemisphere

Vegetation phenology, i.e., seasonal biological events such as leaf-out and leaf-fall, regulates local climate through biophysical processes like evapotranspiration (ET) and albedo. However, the net surface temperature impact of these processes—whether ET cooling or albedo-induced warming predominates—and how the dominance changes across phenological transitions and regions remains poorly understood. Here, we investigated the effects of vegetation foliage on daytime land surface temperature (LST) following six phenological transitions, spanning from the start of season to end of season, in deciduous and mixed forests across the mid- to high-latitude Northern Hemisphere during 2013–2021 using multiple satellite products and ground observations. We quantified vegetation effect as the difference between observed LST and LST estimates from the Annual Temperature Cycle (ATC) model, representing a no-foliage scenario. We found that vegetation-induced cooling consistently outweighs warming following all phenological transitions except for the end of the season. Cooling intensity increased with vegetation greenness, ranging from 1.0 ± 0.5 °C (mean ± 0.15 SD) in 59% of forests after the start of the season (SOS) to 6.1 ± 0.8 °C in 89% of forests following the onset of maturity, before declining toward the end of the season. Over half of the regions experiencing cooling showed intensification of surface cooling with climate warming, suggesting an amplified vegetation-mediated cooling under future climate change. The findings provide a more precise understanding of the role of vegetation in modulating climate at the intraseasonal scale, highlighting the importance of integrating phenological impacts into climate adaptation strategies and Earth system modeling.

albedo↗
DOE OSTI2021

AI for Extreme Volcanic Climate Forcing and Feedback Forecasting in the 21st century

Focal Areas: Our paradigm-shifting framework will apply machine learning and perform physical analysis of contemporary volcanoes to develop sound forecasts of extreme eruptions in the 21st century and their abrupt drying and cooling impacts on the warming climate. We will also bridge climate data driven regression models and earth system model output to trace teleconnections that exacerbate regional impacts such as Arctic amplification and western US droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Understanding of Deep Convective Anvil Clouds

In this project we use ground-based DOE ARM observations, satellite observations, and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations to arrive at a more complete understanding (or, new theory) of how atmospheric heating profiles in thunderstorm cores drives how quickly air rises in the storms. The rate at which air motion increases or decreases with altitude directly relates to how much cloud mass is ejected laterally into the adjacent atmosphere, which then influences the development and maintenance of “stratiform raining cloud anvils”. Our work has led to new equations connecting the heating in these thunderstorms to these stratiform clouds, with the connection modulated by the stability structure of the atmosphere (i.e., if more stable, then a more rapid change in thunderstorm heating with altitude results in more stratiform cloud, independent of whether over land or ocean, or how organized the thunderstorms are). Improving knowledge of stratiform clouds is important, since they contribute to substantial accumulated rainfall (important to agriculture and local hydrology) as well as radiation, given their large areal extents and lifetime. The radiation impacts likely impact simulated cloud feedback in all Earth System models (ESMs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Structural Modifications of Single-Crystal Aragonite CaCO 3 Beginning at ~15 GPa: In Situ Vibrational Spectroscopy and X-Ray Diffraction Evidence

The structural chemistry of carbonates under mantle conditions facilitates our understanding of carbon recycling pathways in the earth’s interior. It also has impacts on the dynamics of mantle–slab interactions. Aragonite is a common calcium carbonate mineral in pelagic marine sediments. The structural chemistry of single-crystal aragonite during successive compression and the behavior of a structural H+ have been investigated by micro-vibrational spectroscopy and synchrotron X-ray diffraction techniques in diamond anvil cells. We describe a reduction of the b-axial compressibility beginning at ~15 GPa, and the related discontinuities in the first-order derivatives of the vibrational modes. The structural modifications of aragonite are manifested by mutations occurring in the pressure relations of the wavenumbers of the O-C-O bending modes, and of the bandwidth and band intensities of the measured internal and external modes. These anomalies are indicative of changes occurring in the force constant of the C-O bonds, and possibly a second-order phase transition. Besides, the [CaO 9 ] polyhedra begin to deform, possibly with some Ca-O bonds becoming elongated and the others shortening. An increase in the co-ordination number for the Ca 2+ sites could be expected under higher pressures. Additionally, the weakening of the OH modes may imply H + -loss from the aragonite lattice above 11.5 GPa.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Short-warning Mitigation via Intentional Robust Disruption of a Hypothetical Impact of Asteroid 2023 NT1

We investigate various short-warning mitigation scenarios via fragmentation for a hypothetical impact of asteroid 2023 NT1, a near-Earth object (NEO) that was discovered on 2023 July 15, two days after its closest approach to Earth on July 13. The asteroid passed by Earth within ∼0.25 lunar distances, with a closest approach of ∼1 × 10 5 km and a velocity of 11.27 km s −1 . Its size remains largely uncertain, with an estimated diameter range of 26–58 m and a most probable estimate of 34 m (JPL Sentry, 2023 September 15; weighted by the NEO size frequency distribution). If 2023 NT1 had collided with Earth, it could have caused significant local damage. Assuming a spherical asteroid with a diameter of 34 m, uniform density of 2.6 g cm −3 , and impact velocity of 15.59 km s −1 , a collision would have yielded an estimated impact energy of ∼1.5 Mt, approximately 3 times the energy of the Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013. We analyze the effectiveness of mitigation via intentional robust disruption for objects similar to 2023 NT1. We utilize Pulverize It (PI), a NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts study of planetary defense via fragmentation, to model potential mitigation scenarios through simulations of hypervelocity asteroid disruption and atmospheric ground effects in the case of a terminal defense mode. Simulations suggest that PI is an effective multimodal approach for planetary defense that can operate in extremely short interdiction modes, in addition to long interdiction timescales with extended warning. Our simulations support the proposition that threats like 2023 NT1 can be effectively mitigated with intercepts of 1 day (or less) prior to impact, yielding minimal to no ground damage.

Asteroids↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bridging New Observational Capabilities and Process-Level Simulation: Insights into Aerosol Roles in the Earth System

The spatial distribution of ambient aerosol particles significantly impacts aerosol–radiation–cloud interactions, which contribute to the largest uncertainty in global anthropogenic radiative forcing estimations. However, the atmospheric boundary layer and lower free troposphere have not been adequately sampled in terms of spatiotemporal resolution, hindering a comprehensive characterization of various atmospheric processes and impeding our understanding of the Earth system. To address this research data gap, we have leveraged the development of uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and advanced measurement techniques to obtain mesoscale spatial data on aerosol microphysical and optical properties around the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory. Our study also benefits from state-of-the-art laboratory facilities that include three-dimensional molecular imaging techniques enabled by secondary ion mass spectrometry and nanogram-level chemical composition analysis via micronebulization aerosol mass spectrometry. Through our study, we have developed a framework for observation–modeling integration, enabling an examination of how various assumptions about the organic–inorganic components mixing state, inferred from chemical analysis, affect clouds and radiation in observation-constrained model simulations. By integrating observational constraints (derived from offline chemical analysis of the aerosol surface using collected samples) with in situ UAS observations, we have identified a prominent role of organic-enriched nanometer layers located at the surface of aerosol particles in determining profiles of aerosol optical and hygroscopic properties over the SGP observatory. Furthermore, we have improved the agreement between predicted clouds and ground-based cloud lidar measurements. This UAS–model–laboratory integration exemplifies how these new advanced capabilities can significantly enhance our understanding of aerosol–radiation–cloud interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Initial Testing of Alkaline Earth Metal Ion Absorption on Crystalline Silicotitanate - 20440

The Tank Closure Cesium Removal process at the Savannah River Site (SRS) has processed aqueous tank waste using the inorganic ion exchange media IONSIV{sup TM} R9120-Ba (which is also known as Crystalline Silicotitanate (CST)). Salt-cake in Tank 10H at SRS was dissolved and processed through filters and ion exchange columns. The primary purpose of the process is to remove Cs-137 from the aqueous waste so that it can be disposed as low level waste. It is known that this inorganic media also absorbs strontium from solution, and that strontium competes with cesium ions for absorption sites. The strontium ion is actually more strongly absorbed than the cesium ion from typical tank waste. However, strontium is typically present in low concentrations so does not normally cause a significant impact. Strontium is present as both non-radioactive isotopes and the radioactive Sr-90 isotope; with the non-radioactive isotopes being much more abundant. Although the total strontium solubility is usually much lower than cesium, some tank waste compositions can have a high enough soluble strontium concentration to decrease the cesium absorption. Relatedly, some testing at SRS suggested that another alkaline earth metal, calcium, may also absorb onto CST and may decrease cesium absorption. Barium is also an important species in treatment of tank waste, but is also usually present at low concentrations. However, after the Cs-137 is absorbed onto CST, it emits a beta particle and converts to Ba-137m, which then decays to non-radioactive Ba-137 by emission of a gamma ray. If the Ba-137m were to desorb quickly, it could impact the dose rate in down-stream equipment. In order to understand the impact of these alkaline earth metals on CST, SRNL performed testing using simulants of SRS tank waste that contain soluble barium, strontium, and calcium. Testing examined both removal of the alkaline earth metals and their impact on removal of cesium. Testing involved first developing realistic waste simulant formulations and dissolving the alkaline earth metals to high enough concentrations to potentially impact the Cs absorption. Once the formulations were developed and prepared, computer modeling was used to calculate the expected Cs absorption behavior to determine if the alkaline earth metals impact the performance. Measurements of the alkaline earth metals absorption by the media is also important for disposition of spent media because of the added radionuclide inventory from the Sr-90. These initial tests are examining the general impact and will be used to determine if further testing or measurements are needed. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Review of quantitative methods to assess impacts of changing climate and socioeconomic conditions on Arctic transportation systems

Rapid climate and socioeconomic changes are transforming Arctic human- Earth systems. An integral part of these systems is mobility, which encompasses the transport of humans and goods into, out of, and between Arctic regions. Impacts of climate and socioeconomic drivers on Arctic mobility are heterogenous. Methodologies are needed to quantify these impacts in measures that can be linked with broader socioeconomic systems. This article reviews existing such methods and organizes them into a conceptual framework to understand trends and gaps in the literature. We found methods quantifying impacts of a range of climate drivers on most transportation modes present in the Arctic, but few methods focused on socioeconomic drivers. Also underrepresented were methods explicitly considering adaptive capacity of transportation systems. In conclusion, we provide insight into the data and relationships relevant to understanding impacts of Arctic change on transportation systems and how these impacts fit into broader human- Earth systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of drought on global food security by 2050

Drought is a major driver of crop production loss, threatening global food security as the population rises toward 9 billion by 2050. Using a process-based crop model within an Earth system model, we assess drought-related impacts on maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production at global and country levels. We then develop a food insecurity index combining drought impacts with socio-economic factors. Our results indicate that by 2050, globally averaged drought losses for combined maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production are <2%, though soybean losses reach 3.6%. Despite these small average changes at the global scale, 62 countries experience maximum production losses over 10%, and 24 countries over 20%. Our index identifies regions at greatest risk, including large parts of South America, Africa, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia. These results illustrate the need for drought adaptation to mitigate future drought impacts on crop production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of a New Cloud Microphysics Parameterization on the Simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems in E3SM

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are one of the most climatically significant forms of convection because of their large role in water and energy cycles. The mesoscale features associated with MCS are difficult to represent in climate models because the relevant dynamics and physics are absent or poorly represented with coarse model resolution (∼100 km). Using a regionally refined model (RRM) with 0.25° grid spacing embedded in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we explore the impact of cloud microphysics parameterizations on the simulation of precipitation, particularly MCS precipitation over the contiguous United States. The Predicted Particle Properties (P3) cloud microphysics scheme has been modified and implemented into E3SM to overcome the limitations of the default Morrison and Gettelman (MG2) scheme in which rimed precipitating ice particles (graupel/hail) are absent and frozen particles are artificially partitioned into cloud ice and snow. We show that P3 improves the simulation of precipitation statistics including frequency distribution compared with MG2 with a limited effect on the diurnal cycle. P3 predicts higher hourly rain rates, resulting in 20% more MCSs and a higher total MCS precipitation (4.4%) compared to MG2, agreeing better with observations. The improvements with P3 mainly result from improved representations of ice microphysics, which not only produces higher rain rates through melting but also leads to a stronger large‐scale ascending motion by releasing more latent heating. This study suggests that improving microphysics parameterization is important for simulating MCS precipitation as future climate model resolutions continue to increase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

CAMAS 2025: Continuing to Advance Arctic Marine Science

The Consortium for the Advancement of Marine Arctic Science (CAMAS) held its second annual Workshop and Early-Career School in Seattle, WA, on April 15-18, 2025. The workshop attracted 74 participants, including a dozen scientists from Europe (8) and Asia (4). The goal of CAMAS is to facilitate and enhance international collaboration on marine Arctic science, in order to advance the understanding and model representation of key marine Arctic processes that contribute to the rapid changes in the Arctic Earth system. These rapid changes have profound impacts on operations in the Arctic, including those associated with the national and energy security of the United States. The Early-Career School started the event on Tuesday April 15. Thirty-three early-career scientists (postdocs and students) gathered for lectures and discussions on topics like high-resolution Arctic Ocean and sea ice modeling; biogeochemistry of the Arctic; Machine Learning for Arctic Earth system modeling; and an Arctic perspective on geo-engineering.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatial and temporal metagenomics of river compartments reveals viral community dynamics in an urban impacted stream

Although river ecosystems constitute a small fraction of Earth’s total area, they are critical modulators of microbially and virally orchestrated global biogeochemical cycles. However, most studies either use data that is not spatially resolved or is collected at timepoints that do not reflect the short life cycles of microorganisms. To address this gap, we assessed how viral and microbial communities change over a 48-hour period by sampling surface water and pore water compartments of the wastewater-impacted River Erpe in Germany. We sampled every 3 hours resulting in 32 samples for which we obtained metagenomes along with geochemical and metabolite measurements. From our metagenomes, we identified 6,500 viral and 1,033 microbial metagenome assembled genomes (MAGs) and found distinct community membership and abundance associated with each river compartment (e.g., Competibacteraceae in surfacewater and Sulfurimonadaceae in pore water). We show that 17% of our viral MAGs clustered to viruses from other ecosystems like wastewater treatment plants and rivers. Our results also indicated that 70% of the viral community was persistent in surface waters, whereas only 13% were persistent in the pore waters taken from the hyporheic zone. Finally, we predicted linkages between 73 viral genomes and 38 microbial genomes. These putatively linked hosts included members of the Competibacteraceae, which we suggest are potential contributors to river carbon and nitrogen cycling via denitrification and nitrogen fixation. Together, these findings demonstrate that members of the surface water microbiome from this urban river are stable over multiple diurnal cycles. These temporal insights raise important considerations for ecosystem models attempting to constrain dynamics of river biogeochemical cycles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The fully coupled regionally refined model of E3SM version 2: overview of the atmosphere, land, and river results

Abstract. This paper provides an overview of the United States (US) Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) fully coupled regionally refined model (RRM) and documents the overall atmosphere, land, and river results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) DECK (Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima) and historical simulations – a first-of-its-kind set of climate production simulations using RRM. The North American (NA) RRM (NARRM) is developed as the high-resolution configuration of E3SMv2 with the primary goal of more explicitly addressing DOE's mission needs regarding impacts to the US energy sector facing Earth system changes. The NARRM features finer horizontal resolution grids centered over NA, consisting of 25→100 km atmosphere and land, a 0.125∘ river-routing model, and 14→60 km ocean and sea ice. By design, the computational cost of NARRM is ∼3× of the uniform low-resolution (LR) model at 100 km but only ∼ 10 %–20 % of a globally uniform high-resolution model at 25 km. A novel hybrid time step strategy for the atmosphere is key for NARRM to achieve improved climate simulation fidelity within the high-resolution patch without sacrificing the overall global performance. The global climate, including climatology, time series, sensitivity, and feedback, is confirmed to be largely identical between NARRM and LR as quantified with typical climate metrics. Over the refined NA area, NARRM is generally superior to LR, including for precipitation and clouds over the contiguous US (CONUS), summertime marine stratocumulus clouds off the coast of California, liquid and ice phase clouds near the North Pole region, extratropical cyclones, and spatial variability in land hydrological processes. The improvements over land are related to the better-resolved topography in NARRM, whereas those over ocean are attributable to the improved air–sea interactions with finer grids for both atmosphere and ocean and sea ice. Some features appear insensitive to the resolution change analyzed here, for instance the diurnal propagation of organized mesoscale convective systems over CONUS and the warm-season land–atmosphere coupling at the southern Great Plains. In summary, our study presents a realistically efficient approach to leverage the fully coupled RRM framework for a standard Earth system model release and high-resolution climate production simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring Randomly Wired Neural Networks for Climate Model Emulation

Exploring the climate impacts of various anthropogenic emissions scenarios is key to making informed decisions for climate change mitigation and adaptation. State-of-the-art Earth system models can provide detailed insight into these impacts but have a large associated computational cost on a per-scenario basis. This large computational burden has driven recent interest in developing cheap machine learning models for the task of climate model emulation. In this paper, we explore the efficacy of randomly wired neural networks for this task. We describe how they can be constructed and compare them with their standard feedforward counterparts using the ClimateBench dataset. Specifically, we replace the serially connected dense layers in multilayer perceptrons, convolutional neural networks, and convolutional long short-term memory networks with randomly wired dense layers and assess the impact on model performance for models with 1 million and 10 million parameters. We find that models with less-complex architectures see the greatest performance improvement with the addition of random wiring (up to 30.4% for multilayer perceptrons). Furthermore, of 24 different model architecture, parameter count, and prediction task combinations, only one had a statistically significant performance deficit in randomly wired networks relative to their standard counterparts, with 14 cases showing statistically significant improvement. We also find no significant difference in prediction speed between networks with standard feedforward dense layers and those with randomly wired layers. These findings indicate that randomly wired neural networks may be suitable direct replacements for traditional dense layers in many standard models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exploring topography-based methods for downscaling subgrid precipitation for use in Earth System Models

Topography exerts major control on land surface processes. To improve representation of topographic impacts on land surface processes, a new topography-based subgrid structure has been introduced to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model to represent the subgrid heterogeneity of surface elevation. To take advantage of the new subgrid structure for improving land surface modeling, this study explores four variations of topography-based methods for downscaling grid precipitation to the corresponding subgrids. In the first three methods, the deviation of the subgrid precipitation from the grid’s is equal to the grid precipitation multiplied by the ratio of the elevation difference between the subgrid and grid mean to a specified elevation equals to the grid elevation, the difference between the maximum and minimum subgrid elevation, and the maximum subgrid elevation, respectively. The second method limits the ratio to 0.5 to avoid extreme values on mountains and the third method accounts for the slope effect. The fourth method is similar to the third method except that the Froude Number is used to limit the numerator in a blocking regime of the ambient flow. The downscaled precipitation is evaluated using the PRISM precipitation data over the U.S. using statistical metrics. Results show that by accounting for topographic slope besides elevation, the third and fourth methods show clear advantages over the first and second methods. Furthermore, introducing the Froude Number in the fourth method improves downscaling skill and shows consistent advantages over the third method in areas with larger subgrid heterogeneity across different grids sizes.

Tesfa, Teklu K.↗